Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: Petapan

That avatar is terrifying and I don't see myself changing my vote before the avatar is changed and therapy is complete. It might be a few years.

[Lunar Martian]

I didn't steal it because it was clever. I stole it because it's how I felt. In fact, you stole it from me pre-emptively.

[Lunar Martian]

Hmmm.... I'm not experienced enough to say but the start of this game feels very awkward. It seems like people are trying to seem like they already know who the Mafia are but to me there's really not much to go on. Even the things other people are saying I think they're mostly reading too much in to. I'm not sure if faking confidence or being genuinely overconfident is an indication that people are Mafia though.

[Lunar Martian]

Hmmm.... I'm not experienced enough to say but the start of this game feels very awkward. It seems like people are trying to seem like they already know who the Mafia are but to me there's really not much to go on. Even the things other people are saying I think they're mostly reading too much in to. I'm not sure if faking confidence or being genuinely overconfident is an indication that people are Mafia though.

vote confirmed this is absolutely scum

hop on folks we're executing this

what vote?

[Lunar Martian]

Okie, I think quiet is town. I'm still very curious about BBmolla's reasoning behind that vote.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm going to VOTE: BBmolla

This feels like opportunistically pressuring the quiet newbies to see if we crack, and just placing a vote for the sake of it rather than based on searching for Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

I think quiet, Illwei, and unwnd are all town btw

[Lunar Martian]

I think those three are town because I can walk through their thought process and follow it. It makes sense and it feels like its coming from the same perspective as me. Is that wrong?

[Lunar Martian]

okay, i like you

I had the opposite reaction to Illwei's post, I thought it was kind of gross

It seems we have very different ways of looking at the game, and that suggests that your thoughts possibly aren't motivated by the same things as me.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar has been a bit lurky

Lunar has been a bit lurky.
Lunar, what's your take on how newbie scum would play? Especially referencing Mikul's posts about me, and this post about you.

Sorry about not posting more - it's a busy time and I'm easily posting every 48 hours and I'm managing to keep up with the game.
As for how newbie scum would play: I'm not sure it would be helpful or useful for me to speculate. I don't know well enough anyway, but I'm not assuming anyone is new or plays a certain way without knowing more. I'm probably the newest person here anyway.

[Lunar Martian]

I..disagree? I don't really feel like Lunar gave much of a reaction at all. I'm tracking backwards here, but nothing to me stood out in terms of what BBMolla was supposedly looking for.

When I voted on them originally, I thought the reason (lack thereof) BBmola put a vote on Lunar was scummy, and generally was suspicious of their posting style. The post I made a note of + my metaskim + peta's testimonial + more recent interactions indicated to me that my reasons for voting didn't hold anymore. Maybe there are other reasons to vote on BB, but when I see them, I'll vote then.

Thinking about it, I realize that I don't read BB as town, just not scummy anymore. Given that I do read some other people towny (hi, Illwei), maybe keeping a vote on someone I read as null is better than unvoting.

Are we to take this to mean that you currently don't read anyone as Mafia, and me a null read is your best guess?

[Lunar Martian]

Peta, I'm finally getting around to answering why I think Illwei, quiet, and unwnd are town. I'm gonna do a quick version, just one or two things I saw from each one. There are more reasons we can discuss if you really think it's necessary.

Quick Newbie Reads:
(I reserve the right to circle back when I get some more time)
Lunar Martian: 4 posts short posts is not enough for me to have a read. I'm not sure what BBmola thinks is so scummy about Post #67, and I'm very interested to hear about it.
Illwei: Towny town to me. Seems relaxed, putting his reads out there, I don't agree with everything he says, but I see town in the way he says it.

unwnd was performative in a calm...something else...sorta way, and quiet was performative in a "this is a fun little bit here imma do it" sorta way.

Really like this read.

Part of me wants to sus petapan for just asking questions, but It's early D1 and there's also...not much...else...to do...

This also seems towny to me, even though I don't sus petapan for questions.

of course this kinda, doesn't apply as much to more experienced players, but hey! it's a newbie game, right? *sweats*

I don't think scum ever wants to be sweating day1.

Bonus round reads:

BBmola's playstyle confuses me, petapan likes questions and pressure, unwnd goes hard, where is Mr. Turtle, Mikul leans town to me, I want to like safebet222's defense of me, but I could be getting pocketed over that, and y'all experienced people make me paranoid.

I think this post is very likely to come from Town, since I think Mafia would want to discredit our mutual trust rather than reinforce it. The start of the post is all building cohesion and trust while Mafia would want to break it down. The end of the post is the only part of the post that has original analysis, and while there isn't much analysis Mafia would probably just skip most of it anyway and coast. I like quiet's vote on me a lot less, depending on how quiet responds to my questions. For now, I'm still confident in saying that quiet is Town.

[Lunar Martian]

do you have any townreads yet, though?

Haha! no! well...In my notes I have both you and unwnd as Town (nothing yet on the others quite) but that's mostly because of...hm let me see. Multiquoting...hate it...

I'm just gonna be... hm. Can I just, quote quote here?

Quiet, how are you reading your other newbies right now?

This...well it's not incredibly towny, but both this and

I say go with it. I have no read on peta right now and It'd help me as well

Which in my first readthrough I saw as attempts from unwnd as them trying to see how people were thinking/making them (them in this case being me) commit instead of being all wishy washy as I am =P

Reading through them again...Man, I hate having my reads list be 50 shades of Null. anyways-

Okay actually in reading over my notes I don't have specific posts that felt village, it was just you asking your questions, which I felt...well,

now

looking at it I like a lot more than how I saw unwnd originally.

Ignoring this, I immediately dislike unwnd and safebet a tad for having full reads, despite there not really much going on. Safebet

was

feeling pressured it seems, and unwnd was doing it under the pretense of teaching, so...okay...

in 92 you express that bbmolla's playstyle is not AI and say that you think he seems like an easy target, but in 101 say you're tempted to vote him out anyway. why is that?

For the exact reason that I said he's an easy target: He stands out as very different than the other players, and it feels like he isn't trying to solve. But someone else pointing it out, on an experienced player, puts me off. idk. paranoia?

As for Illwei, posts like this tell me Illwei is probably town. Rather than just responding to what people are saying, they go a level deeper by trying to get into the shoes of the person posting and trying to understand why they make the posts they do. That's an extra level of analysis that Mafia would probably have a hard time imitating.

[Lunar Martian]

As for unwnd (and this does apply to the others too) it's mostly a feeling. There's something tacit about the way they approach posting that reads as coming from Town to me. Perhaps I'm giving too much credit, but it *feels* like unwnd is trying to drive the game forward and get a solve.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm sorry I haven't been posting much. I've been very busy and I'm out of town until Wednesday. I'll pick it up after that. I'm not posting much site-wide so please don't read too much into it.

[Lunar Martian]

lunar, i was looking at your completed game, and i saw you were a day 1 elimination in that game, which is unfortunate, but what i was noticing is that you were a lot more forthcoming with your opinions in that game, where here it's been a struggle to get you to say much of anything. why is that?

Yeah I've been busy sorry. You'll notice I'm not posting anywhere on the site atm. I realize that sucks but I'll be back in a few days. Posting from my phone sucks. I'm sure I'll get more involved when I have more time. I don't really know how to defend myself because I'm not sure why people suspect me except that I'm quiet

[Lunar Martian]

Why are people not voting BB?

[Lunar Martian]

To be clear I won't really be able to post much until Thursday but i do promise I'll post more and help find Mafia then.

[Lunar Martian]

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.

two options:

1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.

Which is the simplest, I ask?

I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.

[Lunar Martian]

Id rather turtle get replaced

Lunar I think is scum at this point

Well you thought I was Mafia the whole time and seemingly for no reason, but then you also unvoted me.

I don't trust molla and I don't think that a vague claim should be enough to protect the most suspicious player in the game.

BTW, I'm here and getting up to speed. Feel free to ask any questions or prod me on things I missed.

[Lunar Martian]

If I were turtle or lunar, I think I’d be pretty intimidated by the prospect of jumping in now. I mean lunar has a pretty rough job now, after promising that today they’d come back and start posting more, to step in and...well, basically defend against what is looking like a pretty likely vote.

I don’t know if there’s really anything that could make it easier; I guess I just want to say that Lunar (and turtle), I’m excited to hear pretty much anything from you both, and if anyone in the thread has some ideas of where they could start to make it a little less overwhelming, it would be nice to post that. I don’t have any good specific questions for them.

I'm actually kind of concerned about how everyone seems OK with killing me not because of what I've done, but simply because I haven't done much. I'm sorry that this game started when it did. I was quite busy and then out of town. The timing is unfortunate, but it feels like people are being opportunistic in being willing to kill me when I said I was unable to post much.

[Lunar Martian]

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.

two options:

1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.

Which is the simplest, I ask?

I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.

I want to clarify this post because Illwei attacked me here:

I feel more confident in my Lunar vote now that he's parroting unwnd about me.

I wasn't parroting unwnd. I'm really not reading into the 6:3 thing because while I think it's unlikely that someone wouldn't know how many Town/Mafia there are, I think its equally unlikely that Mafia would try to pretend to not know to look like Town. For that to work Mafia would have to lie about not knowing something plausible. All I was saying was that the Occam's Razor argument doesn't really apply. I'm mildly suspicious of Illwei for the way they reacted to pressure, but overall I still think that Illwei is Town for earlier posts and because I mostly agree with Illwei about who is Mafia. Mostly.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm still most suspicious of BBmolla and don't know why a vague claim meant that everyone backed off.
The other two people I'm most suspicious of right now are safebet and quiet. They are both being very opportunistic in being willing to kill me today, but neither seems to have a good reason for doing so.

[Lunar Martian]

Unwnd, Illwei, and Mikul are the three I'm least suspicious of. I've talked about unwnd and Illwei already. I don't think Mikul can be partners with quiet, and has made some insightful posts iirc. I can go digging if requested.

[Lunar Martian]

It seems like all of Norfolk's thoughts are very much within consensus except Mikul, which almost seems to have been thrown on as an afterthought. At this point I'm willing to vote Norfolk but the way the wagon materialized within 15 minutes including 2 people I think are most likely Mafia makes me hesitate. I'll wait for Norfolk to post more in-depth analysis.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar is probably my vote that I'm going to stick with today. Illwei responded oddly to my pressure but I will note that I think they are at least trying. Lunar however speaks in a fashion that seems more like idle commentary about events going on around them and not necessarily what it personally means to them. Their takes on players very much follows thread-consensus as well, and they all seem very..safe to make. There's a certain amount of brevity in their words as well, like with their recent posts with them saying 'they can dig if requested' or 'waiting for norfolk for more in-depth analysis'. It errs on the side of caution that seems like careful scum who just don't want to upset anyone, so by appeasement they are willing to pay attention or respond to people when asked to; this is the majority of what Lunar has done if you ISO them.

Or maybe I'm just trying to get my head in this game that I wasn't here for the majority of?

[Lunar Martian]

I suppose I'll compromise and VOTE: Norfolk

[Lunar Martian]

Oh, I see.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm Town Doctor.

[Lunar Martian]

Finally people are actually listening to me.

I think I prefer to VOTE: quiet

[Lunar Martian]

More then the occums razor thing, I don’t know why you think it takes so much balls to make the only (informed) claim possible that could save scum. If BB was bluffing, then nothing lost; lunar was already going to get ellimmed. How many other people put BB on cop before the doc claim? Personally, I don’t think his soft claim was all that subtle at all, I thought it was cop or a fake claim entirely, with a lot more weight towards cop.

Out of curiosity, lunar, who did you protect last night?

@safe on the Illwei slot, I’m trying to determine if townIll just doesn’t want to be responsible for hammering. The reasoning was strange, but that uncertainty is strangely...consistent? With how they played?

Obviously I protected BB.

[Lunar Martian]

mostly the problem is just i don't know what lunar is doing, and they've aleady been resistant toward any sort of open communication. but yo do the though exercise for me right now: if lunar is scum, who is their partner? that needs to be answered before a vote there can be considered

what's your read on mikul right now?

Now that I had to claim I'm much more willing to be open and cooperative. I also am willing to work with some slots more than others. I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.

[Lunar Martian]

@unwnd

last column is cop , mason, or jk

what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation

And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.

Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.

[Lunar Martian]

I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.

@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?

Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.

[Lunar Martian]

Also Mikul, I still think you're town and I doubt much changes for me. I could say right now again taking claims as clear then my list looks like this

{BBMolla, Lunar}
{Mikul}
{Peta, Safebet}
{Norfolk, Quiet, Illwei}

I'm down with any of the 3 I listed at the bottom. I do not think those 3 contain the scumteam, but numbers remain on our side atp

I don't think Quiet is the right vote. This is impressive in it's own right if he's fooling me, but the measures he's taken feel too overbearing for having a potential partner. Quiet would be more hush at E-1 and would be afraid of spewing his mate, but instead he's sitting here and

asking what he could do better.

That just

Can't be scumplay.

I'm pretty fooled by you as well peta if you're scum, you're much more animated than what I've observed of your scumgame, wherein you play a bit more calculated in the way you display your emotions, sometimes using them as a crutch to get you out of bad situations

Not sure where it serves you to switch to norfolk like this as scum lol

I think Safebet would probably be the safebet (lol) for me because I don't think the game-state has prominently changed overnight. I still think Quiet/Mikul were likely town arguing semnatics with one another and at this current point I'm not willing to suggest the idea of limming there. Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?

The list does not really line up with the other posts, despite some of them coming on the same day as the list.

[Lunar Martian]

I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.

@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?

Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.

Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as town? Something is wrong with your reads, there.

Sorry fixed my post.

I also think quiet is Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

@unwnd

last column is cop , mason, or jk

what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation

And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.

Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.

uh...how so?

Your post just rubbed me the wrong way. Are you getting caught up? Do you have any thoughts to share with the class?

[Lunar Martian]

Even more so , after quiets posting. I still don't buy this as his first game. As he continues to post , the more I'm biting down on that read and I really doubt I'm moving.

Quiet has went through a variety of cycles that I have tried to explain in as much detail as possible

1) he's tried to sympathy fish at the start of the game
2) he's said he's totally new and his familiarity terminology and understanding of game concepts , says otherwise
3) he was not posting and lurking until I started focusing him.
4) then he was really defensive and starting posting a ton

Everything about quiet pegs me as scum and it actually tilts me , no one else is on board with pushing him.

I'm still very much on board.
VOTE: quiet

[Lunar Martian]

@lunar

I am actually curious about this. Just re read

When you were at e1 and molla tried to hammer you. Why not claim doc then?

Because I thought claiming would neutralize me. I didn't think I was going to die at that point. I claimed when I thought I had to to save me.

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: safebet

I still prefer quiet, but I don't really want to kill outside of these two today.

That's E-1.

[Lunar Martian]

By the time I logged in I think someone might even have said I wasn't at E-1. I haven't checked. But I claimed once I felt like I had to or die. If I didn't claim, I didn't think I was going to die.

[Lunar Martian]

I will VOTE: quiet again. Happy to revote safebet, but not until he returns from VLA. Theres no hurry here. In the meantime we might as well keep things moving.

[Lunar Martian]

Would be stunned if quiet were scum. Vote on me sucks but he's just blissfully unaware. Peta's vote is different where he know it sucks and he's aware

I sort of agree but I have another plausible explanation for what happened there. I want to hear from peta and quiet before I give my thoughts.

Peta and quiet: why vote unwnd?

[Lunar Martian]

Would be stunned if quiet were scum. Vote on me sucks but he's just blissfully unaware. Peta's vote is different where he know it sucks and he's aware

I sort of agree but I have another plausible explanation for what happened there. I want to hear from peta and quiet before I give my thoughts.

Peta and quiet: why vote unwnd?

We need new perspectives. If you are simply afraid to post I am listening and welcome whatever you want to say, sincerely

I think I've given my thoughts. Nothing has really happened to change my mind, so I'm not repeating myself. Quiet is still Mafia to me. Nothing about his play gives me any reason to think otherwise. I'm curious to hear what peta has to say, but for now I think both you (unwnd) and he (peta) are Town. Illwei/BM is Town. I'm also confident that Mikul is Town. That leaves safebet as likely Mafia. It makes sense too that safebet would be trying to discredit me and cast doubt on my role as Mafia. It seemed like everyone else was also either going for safebet or quiet so I really didn't think I had to be all that vocal.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm a bit confused at this stage. I'm still about 85% sure that Mikul is Town. I think safebet is probably who I'm thinking is the most likely candidate for Mafia, but I don't know how to decide between unwnd and peta. They are both people who just sorta seemed like Town but also suggested that they would seem that way even if they were Mafia. I'm not sure how to decide between them.

Peta and unwnd - what are your thoughts about safebet?

[Lunar Martian]

I think basically I have to pick between Mafia unwnd who has been sitting back and not doing much and letting town run down the wrong path on its own or Mafia peta who has been actively leading Town down the wrong path. On some pure theory level I think the latter is more likely, as I think it would be unlikely that an SE would use their SE status as an excuse to sit and do nothing as Mafia. Then again, maybe they were trying to teach us a lesson or expecting someone (especially the other SEs) to call them out. Peta not doing more to call out unwnd sooner again makes me think that maybe peta is Mafia, because if peta were town he'd have a stronger motive to call out unwnd for being passive.

[Lunar Martian]

You asked me to be more active and now you both are ignoring me

[Lunar Martian]

You asked me to be more active and now you both are ignoring me

it has emotions!

i'm sorry i just felt like hashing things out with unwnd took higher priority. i'll be honest though that i'm not sure i have a ton to say to you right now. why do you think you're alive?

Not sure. Probably because Mafia thinks I'm not a threat and to make people ask that question.

[Lunar Martian]

I agree that the move is to go for safebet today probably. I also think we should sort out between peta and unwnd as much as possible today, since tomorrow presumably it'll be the two of them with me or Mikul, and today we have more brains working to figure them out.

[Lunar Martian]

Also lunar why @safebet

I'm pretty confident that you're Town, and kinda doubt that both peta and unwnd are Mafia. I suppose that this argument between them could be staged, but it's unlikely.

I targeted you last night, and BB on night 1.

[Lunar Martian]

Not fully untrue

Lunar please participate to the best of your ability, you have two people who have practically declared intent to vote you today

Did your actions go through on those protections by the way?

How would I know? I mean clearly when I saved BB it didn't work.

[Lunar Martian]

I also guess in some weird world it could be peta lunar if that interaction in 651 counts for anything.

I in all honesty should not be reading rolls as AI especially given the nature of how he claimed that, but it just makes more sense in my mind than fake claiming. Behaviorally he would be my first vote though

If uwnd isnt scum as I've read him most of the game then its lunar peta. Which still just really is hard to get my head around as they have been my most two locked people in this game. I guess I could be just really bad and have been wrong about everything
If uwnd is scum, who is he likely to be scum with. I can't see it with safebet beased on their voting patterns. So UWND Peta, or uwnd lunar ? Both of these seem unlikely because uwnd did have pressure on lunar quite a bit, and lunar was following me on uwnd


that brings me back to peta and safebet

I think I'm declaring my intent for safe

This post is making me question Mikul. It has a lot of words but really doesn't say anything other than "maybe" and then uses that maybe as an excuse to state intent to end the day. I think I need to do some re-reading.

[Lunar Martian]

Actually no one has voted, so I'm not sure what that intent is for. and in the end I come to the same conclusion as Mikul. If peta and unwnd are both Town, then Mikul cannot also be, but I just don't think I can ever be comfortable enough with Mikul being Mafia over peta or unwnd to vote it over either of them.

[Lunar Martian]

Yeah that didn't lead anywhere lol. Pretty sure doctor doesn't get results if their protection were blocked or not, only investigative

Earlier you said you were sitting back because it was unfair to newbies if you went 100%. But now you're setting a trap? That doesn't seem very sporting, and contradicts your earlier stance where you just wanted newbies to have fun and learn. I think I could vote for either safebet or unwnd here.

[Lunar Martian]

My mind is running in circles and although I was pretty confident that I was on the right track before today, I was clearly wrong so I'm rethinking everything. Maybe I'm just overthinking. It would certainly make me feel better if peta were Mafia because that's the person I was least confident in before today, but that's not a good reason to think someone is Mafia. Sorry if I'm bad at expressing my thinking in the thread. I'm overthinking everything and I'm not that confident in anything. Every time I read up on the thread I start thinking that I'm wrong and start over.

[Lunar Martian]

I guess? I wasn't really feeling that confident, that's just where I was at the time. I just feel lost and paranoid and I don't even know anymore.

[Lunar Martian]

No this is mostly a today thing. I was pretty confident before. Day 1 I wound up being right and that really boosted my confidence going into Day 2. But then I was wrong and I don't really know where to go. But I do think that people tend to respond well to projected confidence.

[Lunar Martian]

@lunar that post says a lot (for me at least)

I always prefer to poe hunt and you can do that with wagons assuming scum isn't willing to outright lynch each other or push hard.

What do you mean?

[Lunar Martian]

No this is mostly a today thing. I was pretty confident before.

Another dumb question to you: Why did you say this then?

Earlier you said you were sitting back because it was unfair to newbies if you went 100%. But now you're setting a trap? That doesn't seem very sporting, and contradicts your earlier stance where you just wanted newbies to have fun and learn. I think I could vote for either safebet or unwnd here.

This just reads to me like a very confident post. I've probably touched this three times in a span of 25 minutes but just be honest with me if you're town. Why did you suspect me here where does your paranoia lie? Just give me a stream of consciousness if that makes sense.

Each piece of logic by itself makes sense. But there are reasons to suspect everyone, and they aren't all right. I had a pretty visceral reaction to that gimmick, but now with a bit of space I'm unsure about it. Even then although I thought it was scummy, I did have some doubt. The willingness to vote was partly emotional. I don't even know if I would have voted you there, although part of me was hoping that me saying that would get someone to latch on and agree, because I feel like just a little movement from someone will break this deadlock. I don't know if that makes sense. Most things I do have a few things underlying them. Some things I do have no deeper meaning or reason.

I feel like I've sort of opened my soul for people to see in the last few posts. I have to go for a few hours now, but if you have more questions still I'm happy to answer them.

[Lunar Martian]

I feel especially helpless here because this is my second game, and in my first game I died day 1 and then Town lost, so it's my first time trying to solve at the end of the game. I just don't know.

[Lunar Martian]

I would advise everyone to consider this. As he's in most people's radar.

Actually, now I'm curious.
How many people are willing to vote me today? Not necessarily first choice, just would be willing to do it. I want to know where people stand on me.

This post set me off, because it seemed like quiet was overly concerned with how people viewed him rather than solving the game. At the same time, quiet seemed to gravitate towards the easy pushes of me and Turtle.

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: lunar martian

i was going to do this anyway. but with you declaring on me i feel as though i should take my chance before that because i'd rather it be my fault if i'm wrong on lunar

Really? That's interesting. Feels like cornered Mafia. I could vote safebet, but I'm not comfortable voting rn. I'm also happy to vote peta after that post.

[Lunar Martian]

lunar is actively and i mean actively posting in another game

That's not true unless someone hacked my account.

[Lunar Martian]

We now know unwnd is town and i'm town

unless he just has not read this already

Doesn't this post TMI that I'm town?

[Lunar Martian]

We now know unwnd is town and i'm town

unless he just has not read this already

Doesn't this post TMI that I'm town?

lunar, mikul is confirmed town to you, because if he was mafia he would have hammered you.. why are you suspecting him, and not safebet, the person voting you?

I do suspect safebet. I've suspected safebet for a long time. You're right that Mikul must be Town, and actually that means safebet must be Mafia I think. Oh and unwnd is Town too. Sometimes things are simpler than they seem

VOTE: safebet

[Lunar Martian]

lunar, why did you respond to mikul and not safebet, one of the two people voting you?

What do you want me to say? That no, it's not me and Mikul or whatever, but its him and you?

[Lunar Martian]

The only thing that bothers me about lunar. And this is enough for me to consider this is his time stamps shows him actively posting in other games as this one came up.

He's almost completely ignored it

When? That's not the first time someone has said I've been posting in other games when I was offline.

VOTE: peta

I'll do some work to try to convince you soon.

[Lunar Martian]

Part of me wants to sus petapan for just asking questions, but It's early D1 and there's also...not much...else...to do...

Why? Isn't RQS an alternative to RVS? It's plenty valid way to get this game started. In fact...

UNVOTE: petapan

I'm not keeping my vote on someone I think asked the best question so far this game.

I'm here everyone... really busy day between work and kids... will post later. In the meantime...

@BBMolla... is this vote cause I've been gone for almost 24 hours? I kind of feel that you're voting whoever has been away the longest.

I'd be voting Turtle then

What have you done this game?

I was being serious BB... you surely aren't ever voting for a person who hasn't posted once and has been prodded and I believe I was the player that had been missing the longest at the time of your vote besides Turtle, as was Lunar. Nonetheless, it's a fair question. I have town read quiet and petapan and slightly sussed unwnd... besides that, not much. I've been busy.

This might be the only post I'm gonna be able to get out for another 24, so this is where I'm at...

Town - In no particular order...

quiet - I thought his nervous and erratic reaction to getting questioned about his behavior so early leans newbtown.
petapan - I read peta's efforts as both attempting to move the game along and attempting to instill confidence in the newer players to follow their reads to their logical conclusions and act. +Town
BBmolla - I think BB just has a different way to get the game moving... I haven't done any meta dives on anyone, but if I'm to believe the thread, it seems to serve him well. I also think his question to me was fair... I haven't done much... lean town for now.
Illwei - I think they have been thoughtful and genuine in their responses so far, I also agree with the statement behind their recent vote, I just don't think there's anything necessarily scummy about reacting adversely to the way BB is playing.
Lunar - Lunar has been pretty awkward and I tend to see that as newbtown...

Scum -

Mikul - Slight scum read on Mikul as I think his interaction with me about the quiet/unwnd interactions was hedging his bets, as peta pointed out. And that is pretty much all its done during the game.

unwnd - He's obviously pinging me with what I perceive as a condescending attitude... it strikes me as interesting that he only has one scum read and 3 town reads with a fistfull of nulls (as BB pointed out), the BB scum read is disingenuous... In my little experience, BB's method is common around this site, I would imagine that unwnd knows this too, and unwnd's play overall pings me as an attempt at being a powerwolf.

VOTE: unwnd

I am usually able to read the thread throughout the day and may be able to sneak in a response here and there... but definitely will be able to post around this same time tomorrow.

I completely agree with unwnd about the course this gamenhas taken over the last 36-48 hours. Gamesolving on D1 is almost never fruitful.

Unwnd...I hope you figure out whats going on soon. If I could offer some advice, if you can control it, this time around try not to have a lease that ends on Jan. 1. Makes life's curveballs much easier to handle.

As far as where I stand, I am with BB... I thought Lunar was a fine flip. We'll have to see whats up with Turtle but a policy flip would be an okay choice. The three folks I have no interest in flipping are peta, mikul and obviously BB. The rest are up for debate.

@quiet, can we talk about who you'd like to flip as opposed to why illwei is town? That'd help... It gets lost in your wall posts.

With the holiday coming, I'll soon be V/LA as well. I'd like to cut the circular conversations and consolidate so we can get possible cc's out there before deadline looms.

I really don't like Norfolk Boy... but again... the slot is just flipping green isn't it?

VOTE: quiet

I'll compromise on Norfolk if it comes down to it.

I really don't have enough experience to have a gut feeling about the Lunar claim, or the BB claim for that matter, I think I have to take them at face value for now

Not voting Mikul or Peta

Out of the 4 that are left...

Illwei is the VI at this point... I wish it were that easy to catch scum, but I just don't think we're gonna get a slip like that...
I don't really want to vote Unwnd... not that I think you're reasoning is off mikul, just that quiet is a better bet imo.
Norfolk/turtle slot is lhf that flips green most of the time.

Here are some relevant safebet posts. Safebet really doesn't mention or interact with peta much, but when he does, it doesn't seem to be sorting interactions. Mostly safebet answered questions or engaged in banter. Safebet RVS votes peta, but then because peta asks "the best question so far" that turns into a Town read which never really changes or gets further explained. From then on safebet says a couple times he's unwilling to vote peta, even though not much explanation is given. Peta even questions safe's townread of me, but the reasons for townreading peta are equally weak in that post.

[Lunar Martian]

If scum were going for the win , they already have won. Makes no sense why you and safe would not hammer as scum. It's borderline bm. So if you actually pushed the dp back , you would have already won yesterday so it doesn't matter.

Just waiting for your reads just to have thoughts and I'll probably vote as well. Don't see the point in making this go long

This is directed at unwnd?

[Lunar Martian]

@lunar yes


If it's safebet and uwnd , they would have / could have won yesterday. You were at l-1. All uwnd had to do was unvote and hammer.

Him stalling the game is just bm and I don't see him doing that just to flex.

Yeah no one is saying it's unwnd though. It's peta.

[Lunar Martian]

Peta I'm sorry its been a rough day for you.
GG everyone.

And if you really think I played that badly, I'd love feedback and advice.

[Lunar Martian]

Yes, thanks to the mods!
I learned a lot and had fun. Sorry to everyone I killed along the way.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar, I thought your behavior was

super

scummy. It got to the point where I told Cabd this day that I felt it was 'too scummy to be scum.' I think that's an approach that is valid, because you played in such a dgaf way that it made me question if well, you'd do that as scum. I'm curious: was this intentional on your part? Why did you decide to no kill? Clearly you had thought about things more than I anticipated and I want to know what you and Safebet were planning or thinking about in some of these instances.

The no-kill was because I didn't see any gain from killing anyone, but saw potential downsides. Not killing just maximized chaos, which is good for Mafia.
As for the claim - it was a bit of a risk, but not a super large risk. Had I claimed Vanilla Townie I probably would have died anyway. I think the key was not overthinking it. When I was put in a position of having to claim, I went for it. Safebet and I had discussed it a little bit prior to that, but in that moment I didn't even check the set-up table to see if my claim made sense, because I didn't want to take too long. I just hoped that I wasn't making a bigger mess than I needed to.
I did allow myself to be very lazy this game, especially on later days. The claim gave me armor, and until someone forced me to do something I was content to sit and watch from the sidelines knowing I wouldn't die. It didn't matter if people thought I could be Mafia, so long as no one was willing to risk killing me. If you look at my other Mafia game, everyone thought I was Town, and I only died because the Tracker tracked me.

[Lunar Martian]

For sure I owe props to safebet. He played super well which enabled me to coast through the remainder of the game.

[Lunar Martian]

It certainly wasn't easy for us either. Town played really well and it was close to the very end. I was really hoping that yesterday Town would kill me. I think if safebet had led the push on me, then safebet would have easily coasted through today. But I survived today for the same reason I survived yesterday.

[Lunar Martian]

That's a bit bare

Before I continue on my thought, what do you feel you could do better Lunar and what do you think scared you the most?

Early on I'm not sure what went wrong exactly, but I had a really hard time picking it up and playing well later. I kept seeing everyone as obviously Town, which wasn't really an issue in the other game I played.

[Lunar Martian]

I think the SEs were pretty scary in their confidence. and The fact that they were sitting back meant I had nothing to go on in terms of gauging reactions. I think I should have just taken that as an excuse to be even more confident.

[Lunar Martian]

That's a bit bare

Before I continue on my thought, what do you feel you could do better Lunar and what do you think scared you the most?

Early on I'm not sure what went wrong exactly, but I had a really hard time picking it up and playing well later. I kept seeing everyone as obviously Town, which wasn't really an issue in the other game I played.

Yeah that can be really difficult as scum. You start thinking 'well, I can't push this because they're just so town.' I'll admit, even now I hesitate pushing on town because I'm afraid if I come at it wrong it'll be my head. Your confidence in that regard to reads was good, but I think you should mesh with that unsure/inquisitive townie vibe that your other game I looked at seemed to have. The doctor claim really did you a ton of favor because I was reading your play like 'I'm the doctor so I don't have to do much.' Games like that won't always come around though, so my best advice to you as scum is to try and hone into your sensibilities. It's good to display town confidence (as scum), but at some point people are gonna wonder where you're getting it from yeah? That's where faking your town motivation to find out the answers can come into play. It gets easier the more you try it, so don't be afraid to attempt different things as scum.

Yeah I should have just asked more questions I think, it would have gone a long way.