Newbie 2077 : The Curse of a Blue Diamond!! - Gameover
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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Yeah I saw the votes on my slot. Voting for lurkscum makes sense, and Astro's answers for being lurky are bad, but I can't answer for that, gonna try to make a clean start here.
The end of d1 was a mess. 3 votes within an hour or two after the deadline passed. Very weird. If I were in full paranoia mode I'd be looking at those slots first, but I'm not inclined to start from maximum paranoia
I am wondering how everybody feels about the Uranus slot after failing to flip it d1.-
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Up to page 30 in my skim through. Kinda feeling town pings on Salsa/Norwegian slot, scum pings on Rat. Hard to get a feel for STD, which tracks with the previous game I've played with him.
I'm moving quickly through these early pages; I feel weird drawing too many conclusions based on what happened prior to my entrance. If anybody has a particular post or interaction they'd like me to weigh in on, please point me in that direction, otherwise I'm gonna focus on getting a feel for you all, since this will be my first tangle with most of you-
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CLS if I were prepared say I think you're town, would it be a mistake? Cuz I think you are probably town.
Your 802 is helpful as I crash-land into this game. I think it's a fair chance scum is an early vote on either wagon, maybe both. But if not both, I'd say it's more likely scum is on the 2nd wagon than the first (time becomes a factor and scum wants a miselim).
Oh and same statement for 816 where you added the Salsa wagon.
That would give me top sus on LQ, Norwegian, Uranus, for starters. Hmm.
On to the back half of the 30s-
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Not sure I agree LQ. Miselims are in scum's best interest whether the scum team is feeling heat or not. My personal feeling (could be wrong of course) is that scum would rather be an early vote on a wagon than a late one, as the hammer and e-1 votes tend to get a little more scrutiny.
I'm not ready to partner-solve yet, just trying to get a foothold into the game.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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I'm "going for you" in the weakest of ways at this point. (I've been in game for all of maybe 5 hours now? Hi, btw!) Just making some observations. To me, I look at the wagons CLS details in 802 and 816 and I say scum is more likely to be on those wagons early than late. Given there is very little overlap between the first two wagons, scum is in there somewhere. You think scum is more likely to get on the wagon late?In post 1318, LicketyQuickety wrote:
The thing is, if Scum is not in danger of getting Elimmed, then they can wait back and weigh their options. You can't tell me you've never been in a situation as Scum where Town was super off track and you thought it would be best to make a strong push, right? Like, only a super try hard Deep Wolf would make that play. I guess that is what you are arguing for then?In post 1317, Pavowski wrote:Not sure I agree LQ. Miselims are in scum's best interest whether the scum team is feeling heat or not. My personal feeling (could be wrong of course) is that scum would rather be an early vote on a wagon than a late one, as the hammer and e-1 votes tend to get a little more scrutiny.
I'm not ready to partner-solve yet, just trying to get a foothold into the game.
Like, isn't you going after me basically the same thing you are accusing me of rn? You are going after a players who pretty much everyone TRs because they made a strong push. I just don't know why you think that is more often Rand<Scum. Town has just as much incentive to do it as Scum if not more incentive than to do it as Scum. So we are back to square one. You think it's more likely that Scum make a super strong push than it is for Town to. To me, that doesn't make any sense.-
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If you think me thinking scum could be in the early votes on the D1 wagons is scummy, you're welcome to think it. Personally I think you're resisting my suspicions a little strongly given how passively I described them. I'm not even thru reading the thread yet.
No, I don't have stronger evidence yet. I've only been in the heckin game for a few hours, man. But I disagree with you that votes, and vote order, is NAI.-
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What am I pushing as scummy, then, that is NAI?In post 1325, LicketyQuickety wrote:So, you are pushing NAI stuff as Scummy, which is Scummy-
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In post 1327, LicketyQuickety wrote:
That's not my argument, bro.In post 1326, Pavowski wrote:But I disagree with you that votes, and vote order, is NAI.
I jumped on you because I saw your argument was fundamentally flawed. And I've seen Scum "work up" progression before.
Am I having a stroke?LicketyQuickety wrote:
Is this a serious question? It's staring you right in the face. You think it's more Scummy than Townie for the early voters on the wagons. That's NAI at best.In post 1328, Pavowski wrote:
What am I pushing as scummy, then, that is NAI?In post 1325, LicketyQuickety wrote:So, you are pushing NAI stuff as Scummy, which is Scummy-
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LQ I agree with that assessment on Uranus, but do you think he's scum in light of his post-not-really-hammer readslist?
I don't see scum saying a damn thing in that spot, though I could see manufacturing it to look town, maybe (I do not know Uranus's meta at all so not sure how possible that is).
He's not a terrible vote but wouldn't be my first choice at the moment.-
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That, along with 987 and 988, yeah.In post 1349, LicketyQuickety wrote:Looking back, it looks like you are talking about Uranus' 991. IDK, I feel that RL could have been given to throw off Town if Uranus is Scum here. Uranus would have been in anti-spew mode if they were Scum there. Therefore, you would not be able to read into the RL for correct information.
I would say it's lightly Townie given Uranus gave a RL after they*might*have been hammered, but it's not enough to change my read there.
I would almost say that CLS needs to be scum with Uranus for Uranus to be scum in that situation, and that seems pretty farfetched for me.-
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I'm actually kinda with the rat right now. I'd rather get Kenny but that does not at all look likely today. You're a lot closer to null for me but at least we can learn things from your flip.
You're also looking a little bit frozen which I don't love.
Then again, so does Uranus, as LQ pointed out
I dunno, this game is a mess right now and we need a lim.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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Norwee, here's something that's bugged me about you ever since I landed in this game. It's late D1. People have expressed fear that the day will end with no elim. Uranus sits at e-1, nothing happens.
The deadline arrives and passes.
LQ casts a vote that will be hammer, if it counts. (It doesn't.)
Then you vote a full hour and a half later. This is entirely a show vote: the deadline is past and even if it wasn't, Uranus was hammered by LQ. Why vote here?-
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viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874In post 1372, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Can you link that game?In post 1371, Pavowski wrote:Problem is StD also sounds pretty much exactly like he did in the previous game I played with him, when he was scum and flew under the radar after coming close to getting limmed early.
This pretty much means I don't think he should make it to elo, assuming we make it that far.-
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That entire situation just strikes me so weird. The lazy brain solution to why it went that way is that you and Uranus are the scum team, and you voted for him after deadline when you saw he wasn't limmed to at least show "hey look, I voted him". But still knowing your vote wouldn't count and didn't matter.
Granted LQ also voted post deadline, but very shortly after and when votes were still needed to secure the elim. CLS voted right after you, which I also don't love, but I'm townier on CLS right now.-
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I trust but arc usually posts in the middle of the night (for me) so we could be waiting a bit for the flip in this case. Norwee just sounds defeated here and I don't think he's coming back to thread. look at his claim and his last several posts.
Anyway at the moment I'm with rat, if this flips green I'm looking at Kenny next. If it's red almost certainly Uranus.-
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Very weird interactions from Norwee on the slot, versus Norwee's consistent TR on LQ which just strikes me as tmi telling.In post 1429, Radical Rat wrote:
Explain the kenny vote please. I have my own wacky conspiracy for why he's totally still scum despite Norwee's flip, but I want to hear your thoughts here too.In post 1427, Pavowski wrote:Seriously frustrated by the end of the previous day. Norwee claims town after they're limmed and Uranus just slinks out ... why?
I seriously don't want to jump all over somebody repping into the slot but that doesn't look great.
Want to hear who got jailed but for now VOTE: Kenny instead
Also don't see a great reason to bus in this position, which means Kenny or Uranus slot. Since I don't want to pile on Uranus slot until his rep gets a chance to speak, I'll settle for Kenny to lead off.
It's prob Uranus though.-
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Here Strange, I quoted more of that post for you.In post 1433, Pavowski wrote:Since I don't want to pile on Uranus slot until his rep gets a chance to speak, I'll settle for Kenny to lead off.
It's prob Uranus though.
I have some feelings about voting off somebody who just repped in, and I like my Kenny vote anyway, but if you want my vote, you can have it-
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Withdrawn then, that's my whoops.In post 1478, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:
(psst, they were in VLA. it ended today)In post 1476, Pavowski wrote:Also for those of us scum reading Uranus for lurkiness, it's been nearly a week for Kenny.
Anyway, sleep.-
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I personally don't love the idea of burning time until ELO jailing Kenny, but I'm impatient like that.
I also don't trust the idea of a non-killing scum; the villager pool is large enough that hanging back from fear of being tracked doesn't really, well, track to me. (ie with 7 people alive, I'd make the kill, and if the tracker got me, then call it gg).
Simpler solutions tend to be righter. Combine this with kenny being off the wagon yesterday... I think this is a good lim.
Kinda curious to see how this plays with LQ's super sekrit calculations, but...
The tacos, heavy in my gut, have compelled me to stay where I am.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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Good points this morning.
I'm not in a hurry to hammer, but given rat's claim, we have one question to answer today. (Well, maybe 2.)
Is rat lying? If so, he's scum, the real jk should cc. We lim one today, one tomorrow, and we win. If not, the 2nd question.
Did rat jail scum to force the no-nk or did scum no-nk on their own?
I've said already I don't think scum skips their chance to whittle down the town so for me the overwhelming vote is on Kenny. But if they did, Kenny has kindly given us a way to get some more mileage out of rat before he's NK'd tonight.
Paradoxically, this gives Kenny town points but also makes me think we need to kill him to be sure we're not in one of the (fmpov) more likely scenarios.
And if Kenny is town, rat should jail whomever (jailing goes thru even if JK is killed, unless scum is jailed, right?). Jk me if you want, but I'd be looking at strange if the game goes another day.-
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I will also point out, though, that rat announcing his target for tonight gives scum an opportunity to no-kill again to frame that person, so be on the lookout for that if, in fact, rat does choose to jail me.
Again that assumes we make it that far, which I'm not sure is a foregone conclusion. I still think it's a good chance game is over with a hammer here. But by all means talk it out first.-
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NGL I'm low-key excited to get jailed, I don't think I've been jailed before. Curious what scum will do with the opportunity. (Again, assuming we make it that far, which I will admit, seems likelier than before Kenny's posts today.)
In my defense though, that would mean I was bussing Norwee yesterday and I still think it makes zero sense for scum to bus right there. By that logic I would say if the JK target is not me, it should be strange-
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I have been burned by scum posting psycho screeds in twilight before and generally choose to ignore them.
And add me to the group confused over these votes from CLS. Moving yourself up the lists if we're gonna play this follow the jk strategy.
I think it's likely strange as well, but it doesn't really change anything for where we're at right now.-
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Very hedgey. Would be voting here at this point if we were not sorta obligated to follow thru on you at this point, KennyIn post 1592, kennyk wrote:@ strange: You wanted to get a consensus on who is JKed after I am gone. But you didn't say anything on who you like to see jailed. And to make matters worse (or should I say stranger; sorry, I couldn't let that one go) there were quite a few proposing Pav as our next inmate.
Jail Strange ahead of me, end the game one day sooner-
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Problem is unless we assume scum didn't kill deliberately, you're either scum or scum's target last night. For me I need that question sorted. Rat also jailed you because of their own suspicion.In post 1594, kennyk wrote:
We don't need to follow through as discussed. We could still alter our strategy to make things faster. It is no problem to elim someone else than me today if that someone is more suspicious. And I am not saying this because I am the one who is bound to be dying next.In post 1593, Pavowski wrote:
Very hedgey. Would be voting here at this point if we were not sorta obligated to follow thru on you at this point, KennyIn post 1592, kennyk wrote:@ strange: You wanted to get a consensus on who is JKed after I am gone. But you didn't say anything on who you like to see jailed. And to make matters worse (or should I say stranger; sorry, I couldn't let that one go) there were quite a few proposing Pav as our next inmate.
Jail Strange ahead of me, end the game one day sooner
So what happens if we elim (let's say) Stranger today and he flips green? Radical could jail Pav as planned or switch back to me again, if he feels saver that way (but not without saying so). And all the things said about our follow up strategy could proceed as said. We would just exchange one suspect (me) with another.
If I'm running the show we lim you today, and if it's a no-kill again tonight, we lim the jk's target, which I guess is me. As you said, this can get scum to elo but they'll have to avoid getting jailed all the while.
We let you go today and we have to wonder if you talked us out of the right call.
Anyway I think Rat needs to definitively announce their target (I don't see where it's been declared officially even though consensus seems to be me) for tonight and then it's hammer time.
FTR Kenny I do think you're town at this point but I suck at this game and your lim makes sense regardless.-
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I would vote strange in this case and I could be comfortable with that.In post 1598, Radical Rat wrote:
We can still do this instead if people aren't comfortable with eliminating kenny anymore.In post 1518, Radical Rat wrote:Another option has occurred to me.
We could let kenny live, for now, while I continue to jail him, and we eliminate elsewhere. If kenny's scum, no nightkills can happen, and he can be safely eliminated in elo.
If kenny's not scum, then the real scum has to choose between continuing to not kill, guaranteeing a win in elo, if they can survive the four attempts town has to hit them first, or killing me, confirming kenny's innocence in the process and sacrificing a guaranteed elo win for only needing to survive three eliminations instead of four.
This may actually be optimal, though if I'm right on kenny I don't really like the idea of just eliminating townies for the sake of it, if I'm wrong then limming kenny seems to put us in an objectively worse spot than not doing so.
UNVOTE: curious what the rest of you think about this.-
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- Location: Bowling, probably
:Thumbsup:In post 1602, Radical Rat wrote:Yes, I am currently planning on jailing Pavowski tonight
Is that official enough for you?-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
I wanted to give the "don't lim Kenny" argument time to breathe. I'm basically at the point of never voting outside of you and Strange today barring something truly bizarre.
Strange I don't see how we're in autowin here. Nobody is conftown and while we've been scheming how a non-killing scum could make it to elo, there's still a chance scum just murders rat tonight.
The only person who might be confirmed in the current situation is me, and that's only tomorrow if we lim Kenny and rat dies tonight.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably