Newbie 2085 - Game Over

[T3]

DONT HAMMER ANYONE IM READING

[T3]

UNVOTE: meg
idk if i'm voting meg but he claimed cop so let's get off him

[T3]

i hear azumarill noises

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idk
i'm gonna read when it's not 12:17 am

[T3]

Hello everyone. I'm an SE, or a semi-experienced player. I've been playing for 11 years, so I've been around the mafia block quite a few times. I'm eager to share all I've learned over the years with you, and my experience is here for you to draw upon. That said, I am far from perfect and I am most excited for the chance for some of you, as fresh young blood, to teach this old dog some new tricks. I hope we have a fun game we can walk away proud of at the end of the day. You will find that the other two SEs have experience equaling or greater than my own, with more talent to boot. The table is very fortunate to have them.

VOTE: Meteor Tome, who confirmed in between day start and now but has yet to post (Micc's original post, citing their need to confirm, is in the start of Day 1 PM)

Prism comes across as oddly serious, laplacian as 'blendy'. I think I've seen newbtown make similar posts, so I'm hesitant to scumread him.

[T3]

Taly: What's your reason for holding back on a vote right now, do you always play like that?

ahhhhh yes
oh yes
this guy is town

[T3]

post 23 reads very inquisitively genuine. it's as if this was a genuine observation winfried made

[T3]

Hmm. I think Prism's lurking argument is interesting!! Maybe I'm taking more +town Prism than -town Meteor Tome from it for now though

who else is giving you vibes?

Why, pretty hard to say at this stage, isn't it? ;P Positive on Prism so far, I think WINfried looks good, the

most

minor of not postive vibes off Dragons for only meming, but it's too early for anyone else. Except.. hmmm...

SE can be scum too

Is that so..?

std's town meta has recently been just.... doing nothing.
there was that pokemon large theme in whivh town std was quite active, however.

[T3]

I guess drawing attention to yourself by flashy behaviour and suggesting you might hold a special role isn't a clear sign you are mafia, might be a sign you're not clinging to much to your virtual life though. But I'm not the fun police (for now ).

I do wonder though, was it a mere coincidence that you showed up again right after I poked you with a stick?

I also saw a game in which Town Roleblocker Binatog broadcasted the fact that he was Town Roleblocker to everyone. I don't think scum Binatog would necessarily think of fakecrumbing so he can have townpoints.

[T3]

I love random questions at early stages of the game. That way, we will get to know each other and possibly gather info,

especially that I am a potential role that will help town.

Upon further thought, this comment appears even stranger to me than initially. Not only have you breadcrumbed a town role as mafia before (game 2048), it also didn't do you any good, and you said you wouldn't do that again. And you can't even claim that you didn't expect anyone to bring that up because that has also happened to you before. And you suggest you might be a power role 5 minutes after you state that as a player you are "neutral and passive". What?

Why do you keep playing with fire?

UNVOTE: ishrar
VOTE: Binatog13

alrighty never mind
binatog townpoints retracted

[T3]

UNVOTE: Binatog
In which situation of those three does town benefit from pressuring him now, Laplacian? What's the best we can get from it? 1. A real PR claim, where Mafia now get to know the setup + who to kill tonight; very bad! 2. An admission that it was a fake soft claim, where mafia now know not to kill Bin because he isn't a PR, and then we just have to go back to reading him anyways to decide if he's now telling the truth or not. Or 3. Scum!Binatog now fakeclaiming one of the previous two. If he fakeclaims a PR, in almost all setups at least one real PR knows he's lying, and they can decide to out themselves or not. If he fakeclaims VT, then, again, we have to read him like anyone else, right?
The situations you've set up being annoying doesn't mean that voting Binatog helps. I think it's bad for town for there to be any PR claims as early as this and that soft claims like this are best ignored, though factored in. I don't see enough from Binatog otherwise to read him yet.

i'd be down to launch this guy into a pool of electric eels

[T3]

I'm not forcing it

Prism

, this game is denser than others in terms of posting rate relative to content.

Plus I've got my hands full with IRL work and other games

Expecting reads from me on various players by now is reasonable, and it's also reasonable to assume this post is some sort of deflection from solving as I've been accused of that before, but that's not what is happening.

I'm waiting to hear back from Win before I go further.

I think

Frogs'

suspicion of my posts being potential TMI was valid. I liked his inquiry to Lap in 60 because I don't think it's productive to surmise all the realities behind Bin's claim at the very least until they reply.

I think

Lap

waffling on

Bin

suggests their initial vote had no ulterior motives despite it being encouraged by

Win's

first vote. I doubt S/S is in

Lap/Bin/Win/Frog

off first impression and that is very well above rand, but I've kept it to myself because I don't have the complete picture to feel confident or assert it.

Also,

Prism

, my initial read on you was more of a way to help me read you rather than a definitive statement. You seemed cautious about my townping on you but it doesn't register as a mafia cautious to me.

lI think Taly actually might be attempting to pocket frogs. The way he just says that frogx2's suspicion of TMI is valid is both pocketing and dodging, something I do a lot as scum. I had a scumgame about a month ago in which a townie was tunneling me and at first I completely denied it while providing little evidence to the contrary. I then did some AtE, and told him that his points were valid and I don't know how to defend myself. And then I won.

This rings similar to that.

[T3]

UNVOTE: Binatog
In which situation of those three does town benefit from pressuring him now, Laplacian? What's the best we can get from it? 1. A real PR claim, where Mafia now get to know the setup + who to kill tonight; very bad! 2. An admission that it was a fake soft claim, where mafia now know not to kill Bin because he isn't a PR, and then we just have to go back to reading him anyways to decide if he's now telling the truth or not. Or 3. Scum!Binatog now fakeclaiming one of the previous two. If he fakeclaims a PR, in almost all setups at least one real PR knows he's lying, and they can decide to out themselves or not. If he fakeclaims VT, then, again, we have to read him like anyone else, right?
The situations you've set up being annoying doesn't mean that voting Binatog helps. I think it's bad for town for there to be any PR claims as early as this and that soft claims like this are best ignored, though factored in. I don't see enough from Binatog otherwise to read him yet.

i'd be down to launch this guy into a pool of electric eels

reasoning?

the way he aggressively talked and questioned laplacian didn't feel like town engaging laplacian's points in good faith. it looks like fros is pretending to refute laplacian's points, while tonally shading him at the same time.

[T3]

I actually did waffle for a bit on whether to vote or not. That's mainly why I added that footnote of "if we get close to elim before Binatog's defense and without everyone having posted, I'll unvote". Right now I want info, not an elimination. Vote pressure imo says "explain yourself or else", and even if he doesn't full claim he at least needs to say

why

he chose to softclaim so early

OK, reading through this again it is not a response I like to my question, which was "What do we gain from voting Binatog / forcing him to explain?" I get that Laplacian

does

want an explanation, but his answer here is basically, like, "Don't worry, I don't want to lim Binatog before he says anything!", which.. is something I certainly

would be suspicious of

if he wanted! But it isn't something I was worried about nor was asking. Makes me feel less positive, for now, about Laplacian for this one,

but,

I think

Lap

waffling on

Bin

suggests their initial vote had no ulterior motives despite it being encouraged by

Win's

first vote.

My reading of the above post, the one Taly is referring to here, means that I see this as pretty dang odd to say! Taly only goes on to make an association of players they don't think are scum/scum because of the Binatog situation, so he doesn't say anything specific about reading Lap, but this seems pretty townread-y on him to say his vote was pure. The kind of "waffling" I'm seeing Laplacian doing is unsubstantial, not him actually hemming and hawing or something, and is totally reasonable for scum to do. This reads to me as actually TMI now

(Y'all were right, I was definitely mixing my words earlier and really meant fluff posting lol)

, or, less likely but maybe, something you'd say about a scum partner. I definitely think scum have incentive to push for Binatog explaining more about his role right now, too, which Taly is doing.

VOTE: Taly

pocket attempt failed.
his point about lap in this post gives me the same ~vibe~ so i'll write it off as a personality thing.
ik this is page 4 and things may have changed, but i'd be interested in a talywagon.

[T3]

i do what i want

lmao. dragons is town imo

The first post in this sequence is like... 99% newbscum shades a town over. I feel good about frogs being town.

[T3]

Binatog softed tracker, claimed it, then claimed to just be protecting the PR as a VT. Enchant told them they should have kept the PR claim. They wound up flipped, I believe without actually getting the tracker out but several people wanted a MC. This was Day 2 rather than Day 1.

I think that the loss is a reason to not do it as scum, but I don't want to guess. I want an actual explanation for why they thought this was a good ideas as town, because right now it seems like they understand how disastrous the idea is period.

speaking from personal experience, not really.
when i just started out, i would often bus as scum when it made no sense to. i kept doing it, because there was always that glimmer of hope that i would be townread for it.

[T3]

It just blows my mind to think that two SEs watch a cluster of active town wack each other with pool noodles, rolefish, all while failing to actually wagon anyone, and don't move to help.

if the scum team is Taly / Dragons @_@

but what if it's prism/taly and they're both pocketing frogs
because i feel like post 123 could be taking advantage of frog's fairly unsure readlist in order to select an lhf town to push, while also having an active town to push the lhf slot.


in case this post made no sense to you: frogs is unsure in many of his reads. scum prism is taking advantage of that, to push STD

[T3]

in fact, prism was voting taly before the post was made, yet still wants to switch to std.

[T3]

VOTE: Meteor Tome, who confirmed in between day start and now but has yet to post (Micc's original post, citing their need to confirm, is in the start of Day 1 PM)

Genuinely don’t know what happened here, as far as I’m aware I confirmed as soon as I got my role PM, this is the first time I’ve looked at the thread since the game start. Maybe I just don’t understand how it works or something.

VOTE: Save The Dragons Dragons aren’t real silly!

Most of this statement kind of unneeded imo, reads like you're playing a victim card? Could have just said it's your first time looking at the thread at the time of your post.

Binatog, do you think you still need the help at this point? You seem experienced enough to make your own forays!

Genuinely don’t know what happened here, as far as I’m aware I confirmed as soon as I got my role PM, this is the first time I’ve looked at the thread since the game start. Maybe I just don’t understand how it works or something.

You confirmed after the day start, so the thread was open already. The confirmation is separate from anything happening with the thread, but it's the timing I keyed in on. Maybe my point is a bit confusing, and maybe you legitimately hadn't opened the thread...but I basically voted you for lurking.

I'm fine keeping my vote for now.

What's wrong with people asking for guidance when playing, isn't this a newbie lobby? Why are you making that assumption?

Hello everyone. I'm an SE, or a semi-experienced player. I've been playing for 11 years, so I've been around the mafia block quite a few times. I'm eager to share all I've learned over the years with you, and my experience is here for you to draw upon. That said, I am far from perfect and I am most excited for the chance for some of you, as fresh young blood, to teach this old dog some new tricks. I hope we have a fun game we can walk away proud of at the end of the day. You will find that the other two SEs have experience equaling or greater than my own, with more talent to boot. The table is very fortunate to have them.

VOTE: Meteor Tome, who confirmed in between day start and now but has yet to post (Micc's original post, citing their need to confirm, is in the start of Day 1 PM)

How serious is the vote? I've seen this argument be placed on both alignments enough to consider it NAI

dragons can do what he likes ig

i do what i want

does that include a vote?

Hmm. I think Prism's lurking argument is interesting!! Maybe I'm taking more +town Prism than -town Meteor Tome from it for now though

who else is giving you vibes?

Third straight post that Taly is requesting input from players without offering any of his own. Could be to just generate discussion but can also be seen as empty posts to increase his activity.

Greetings fellow townies. Let us all work together in a non-suspicious manner

Can't tell if you're a townie who does not give a crap or a mafia who doesn't give a crap. But either way I already like you so that's a plus. Hey semi experienced people, do you join newbie games to help or because you hope facing easier opponents? In other news, I had too much coffee, so I'll have to stop myself from commenting for a while and look for other stuff to do. If I don't come back I probably had a heart attack.

Also, regarding "crap": To what degree is swearing okay here? Do I need to watch my tongue?
Also part 2: I will start writing stuff that isn't really intended to be related to the game in italic font style so you don't have to read it if you don't want to.

AFAIK swear words are fine right? I guess it's up to the moderator.

are you on drugs

[T3]

I suppiose that what you're saying is technically true, but you're blowing it up into it being more AI than it is.

[T3]

just fyi: hunterr (the player) has left us. he's been replaced by meg who claimed cop now.

ah
in post 716 the 'you' is meant to be hunterr.

[T3]

got it.

[T3]

Dang, hunterr's been in the game for like 2 hours and already posted more than me. Even with what Prism said about replacements, that level of effort feels town af to me.

lazy read.
i've seen scum often just call the highest/lowest postcount player automatically town or scum by effort.

[T3]

I am incredibly bitter right now and it's not really your fault. Even if your refusal to discuss drives me up the wall, normally that is routine and not a source of endless tilt. I do think you should elaborate more on the reads, either now and I will (try to if I don't mald) respond later or we can just wait until I'm not being a jerk.

is it bad to assume that town prism would have less anger control

[T3]

Thought about it awhile.

VOTE: hunter

I do think this is better. I do not buy the flummoxed act. My choice with Binatog is clearly stylistic, and reviewing the post I think it is virtually impossible to read as bad faith. It strongly feels to me like this is retroactive justification.

Okay, if I post again for the night yell at me.

i like this post, prism takes hunter (the most active player)'s vote head-on.

[T3]

And again, I ask,

why is that scum indicative

. You argue that this is bad form / bad advice / hypocritical of her to say and, fine ok, I get that you think that, but all you're talking about is if she was addressing Binatog properly. You're voting her because you want her to be elimmed. Why do you think she is scum? Or is this, as I'm suspecting now, just a flimsy post hoc argument because

you're

scum.

i love this post
i was also thinking that hunter was latching on to nai stuff. alright

[T3]

ii cant keep my eyes open
merry christmas and gn, everyone

[T3]

Quoting hunterr #192 here:


> Remind me why you dislike Bina again?

In case he is town, that is, but that's a simple question to answer, I'm surprised you'd even ask. He ain't trying to figure out who is scum, he doesn't care for his own life, he doesn't care for the state of the game, he's just being a provocateur with one statement and calls that his gameplay style. I dislike him because others try something (including trying to clean up the mess he creates) and he pats himself on the back probably thinking he's some kind of genius for suggesting he could have a PR. He even literally said that it's up to town for figuring out his bluffs and he's 100% gonna end up on my no-play-list after this game for sure. I could forgive him commiting a bad stunt, but using it as an excuse to sit on your ass and try nothing else is just too much.

> What are your thoughts on the exchange between me and Prism?

Prism is mirroring the thoughts I had on your slot before and I can't suspect her for typing out what I was thinking. You being scum would also explain why I have a hard time finding scum in the players before you were around.

Your first impression is somewhat performative, therefor some of your arguments are a joke in my eyes, but I'm not particularly scumreading that, it's sensible to mull over everything after joining a game. I rolled my eyes at your initial reason for voting for prism. I mean you found a random logical contradiction and that's supposed to be scumtell like townies never contradict themselves or what?

She could be faking it, but Prisms actions seem very town motivated. She displays constructive effort, spots a lot of good points and encourages others to become active. A mislynch on her would be a sad joke as she'd easily be the MVP if she's town.

All that being said I'm gonna lend her some firepower for now.

VOTE: vote hunterr

the reason for townreading prism feels genuine. kind of a viberead, but i also think that expressing a mindmeld in passing is +town.

[T3]

I would normally think that if win is town then because of this Prism is also town, but Prism is a strong enough scumplayer to fake coming from a town POV well.

[T3]

When T3 finishes catching up, I'll think about his contributions.

I disagree pretty strongly with some of his statements so far, but I've seen him go over the edge as confident town before (and very recently, in the most recent newibe game I modded).

I'm a little concerned that it's taking longer for him to catch up than I'd expect. But, holidays.

So many things have impacted this game and made it difficult to sort the recent replacement players. I'm not including myself in that group, but maybe I should. But, I feel like I put my thoughts into the game and have made tons of AI posts, which have been ignored in some cases and actively misinterpreted in others.

Anyway, this day is going to end soon and I hope town has better data and resets going forward.

Once T3's caught up and I've given more thought to the slot I'll be ready to post what I hope will be my final reads list of day 1.

i haven't had much of a chance to play today.

[T3]

The reason i register frogs as almost certain town is that he actually took the time to read up in detail what i refered to about bitanogs past game, asking what post exactly to look at and reading up on it even to the degree of understanding what exactly has happened during that game and how comparable it is. He didn't really have a reason to do so, argueing for not pursueing that wagon could have been easily done without putting in that work. That COULD be done as mafia, but only a townie has a natural drive to do so. I would bet money on frogs being town and I'm willing to carry that believe a very long way, probably until the end of the game.

I'll also sheep this frogs read, there reasoning makes sense.

[T3]

How is this argument between Prism and hunterr supposed to work anyway; it seems both heated and trivial at the same time? Ultimately, hunterr's initial suspicion on Prism started with a few posts within the first 24 hours. (Now, not to sound like a broken record, but if we want to laser-focus on an early sus posts, how about we come back to Bin's softclaim that they yet again brushed off?)

To me, this whole debate on the last two pages between hunterr and Prism feels like they're both posting so much that there's more and more content to nitpick over and thus find anything you disagree with. Even if Prism is trying to become the town leader as Dragons postulated, I still think that's less suspicious than the relatively low content we've seen from some posters like Taly and Meteor. Really, I feel the same way about the push against hunterr: he's aggressive, but zeroing in on wording isn't sus, and he's thrown out a lot more comments and thoughts then just interrograting Prism.

Reads and their explainations are always good to post and share and I think there's some valid debate here, but I can't help but feel both pushes are distracting us from more important conversations and analyses.

I don't like this post. Lap firstjust completely hedges on thePrism/Hunterr interaction. The way he also says, "hunter is agressive BUT", seems like Lap considers hunterr's aggressiveness to be scummy.

[T3]

Well, that's odd.

VOTE: Prism

Why the vote here?

[T3]

Frogs and Winfried are town. For reasons see 215; that Winfried saw that also makes them town, along with their solving.
My predecessor seems to have tunneled on hunterr. That scumcase was not good. Hunterr's scumcase isn't good either. TVT or TVS? Not completely sure if it was TVT, but it looks like one so it is probably one.
I am not seeing any scum yet - and for me, having 2-3 townreads is rare, while not having scumreads is also rare - so let's look at the people in hiding.
Biratog claimed PR. We'll see later if that's scum or town.
Meteor has disappeared.
Dragons has been... giving reads with no justification.
VOTE: Save The Dragons
We should vote them to E-1, so that we can see the reasons for the reads and their reason for hiding their reasoning.

This post is almost so scummy it's funny, but from what I've seen of NK I have very low expectations for his tow and scumplay

[T3]

The way Taly has just been watching from the sideline while this town has not been getting their act together and spiraling down into paralysis is unbelievable at this point.

VOTE: Taly

again, this just echoes prism. idk what to make of that.

[T3]

UNVOTE:
No, that's not scum.
VOTE: MegAzumaril

I CC

. I am a Cop.

Vote them out asap.

Their partner is probably Laplacian.

retract now.

[T3]

Binatog

Hello there guys. I expect the SE to help us to play thanks

what do you expect SEs to do

I love random questions at early stages of the game. That way, we will get to know each other and possibly gather info,

especially that I am a potential role that will help town.

I'm choosing to ignore this because the italics is true of every player in this game, everyone is potentially a role that could help the town.

What's going on with hunter's wagon? I think, based on their post, they are town.

i like this read, would you care to elaborate on it?

overall it looks like he's trying to play the game his way and that's fine by me i'm probably in null-town with this slot i'd love to see more.

frogsfrogs

Hmm. I think Prism's lurking argument is interesting!! Maybe I'm taking more +town Prism than -town Meteor Tome from it for now though

i like how they're considering this argument more than jumping on it

dragons can do what he likes ig

i do what i want

does that include a vote?

Taly: What's your reason for holding back on a vote right now, do you always play like that?

Sometimes, I just don't feel a vote is the best instinctual way to help me sort at the moment

Why prod at Save The Dragons to RVS but feel that, for you, "a vote is [not] the best instinctual way to help you sort at the moment"? I feel like some of your questioning so far looks more like it's for filling space than getting useful answers and starting points for play.

this is a nice call out

The situations you've set up being annoying doesn't mean that voting Binatog helps. I think it's bad for town for there to be any PR claims as early as this and that soft claims like this are best ignored, though factored in. I don't see enough from Binatog otherwise to read him yet.

i like this approach

i like the talk about not wanting to force anything onto binatog this early for fear of potentially outing a PR so early in the game.

I've wavered my opinion on Prism a little bit but I've arrived at a town read at this point and I don't think this is a good push. I... do not know why the posts hunterr has an issue with are scum indicative at all. He's only talked about the two early ones and then said 146 is "concerning". Given that Dragons is playing his game how he is, this is the only argument for scum prism that I'm seeing. I think Prism's posts have been of fine quality so far-- she's engaging with others and the game, both asking questions and sharing reads-- and some of the angles she's taken to try and read people are novel and/or effortful enough to look really townie to me. I don't think Dragons / hunterr could be a scum team, with how Dragons hopped on this vote but like, maybe one of them could be. Not really scumreading either of 'em currently.

i just like a lot of their thought process. it'd be easy to turn this around into a scumread but they're conflicted because they don't really scumread either of the prism voters.

i see frogsfrogs as town.

hunterr

Third straight post that Taly is requesting input from players without offering any of his own. Could be to just generate discussion but can also be seen as empty posts to increase his activity.

i like this though i think frogsfrogs did mention something similar.

Hey semi experienced people, do you join newbie games to help or because you hope facing easier opponents?

I don't think you'd find the spirit of the latter with any of the SEs in this game, but perhaps you will find it in others.

I usually go for the greatest challenge I can, and Newbie games serve both as breaks while I wait for strong tables and as chances to help shape players who will grow far beyond me one day.

You're contradicting yourself here. You just told Binatog that he shouldn't need help to play and now you're saying that you want to help players? VOTE: Prism

i don't really get the vote here tbh i don't know that the statements are contradictory and the continued push on this point seems a little meh

the more i reread hunterr the less i like his tone

Also you can't get a read on Prism, the player with the most contributions so far? Try harder.

things like that ping me a little

The reason i register frogs as almost certain town is that he actually took the time to read up in detail what i refered to about bitanogs past game, asking what post exactly to look at and reading up on it even to the degree of understanding what exactly has happened during that game and how comparable it is. He didn't really have a reason to do so, argueing for not pursueing that wagon could have been easily done without putting in that work. That COULD be done as mafia, but only a townie has a natural drive to do so. I would bet money on frogs being town and I'm willing to carry that believe a very long way, probably until the end of the game.

You know this is the third or fourth time you've worded your posts like this and each time I see it I get pinged. Why are you being apprehensive about some of your reads/scenarios and giving possibilities of what COULD be the case? Hedging bets?

i kinda like the pokes at WINfried but i could see scum trying to paint a negative picture of them so i guess it's NAI

hunterr, can you give a readslist

i think i'm moving down to null for hunterr. needs more data.

Laplacian

I completely agree with WINfried's callout. The more I think about Binatog's claim, the more I see 3 options and none of them make me happy:

1. Binatog is town, and has a special role. This paints a target on him for no good reason at all
2. Binatog is town, but has no role. Makes that claim a weird gambit that erodes trust in him and makes real town roles harder to claim
3. Binatog is mafia. A roleclaim this early lets him set up a future fakeclaim

None of these benefit town. Furthermore, #2 seems unlikely as Binatog has played several games before. So he's either playing recklessly or is scum. I don't think we should quickly hammer* the vote as we have an absent player and I want to hear Bin's defense, but he's is currently an uncontested #1 on my sus list
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Binatog13

*if we get close to elim before Binatog's defense and without everyone having posted, I'll unvote

i think this is well thought out, but it's also weird you make a clear point that you don't want to elim Binatog you just want to pressure him

And I feel Binatog's made himself look even worse now.

maybe

Dang, hunterr's been in the game for like 2 hours and already posted more than me. Even with what Prism said about replacements, that level of effort feels town af to me.

i think that's originally what lead me to townread hunterr but scum can effort just as much as townies so i'd advise you to take a second look.

i think i lean town on Laplacian.

the rest will come later

this is just a big ball of nothing.

[T3]

this is the sorriest play I've seen in a long time though. beggars the imagination that he's scum. There's no way scum fake claim here to save town-me.

he's probably town but wtf.

i originally thought this post came from an informed perspective, i get why ffery could think nk is town and i agree that nk and meg could both be town.

[T3]

VOTE: ffery
Lim ffery today and wait for results from nk15 and meg.

[T3]

Lim ffery then flip meg or nk
if we lim ffery then the cops get an extra check

[T3]

cops, as in cop claims

[T3]

limming ffery is the mechanically correct play.
if there's no doctor, then mafia shoot someone who isn't the cop
if there is a doctor then i think mafia roleblocks the cop BUT ffery might also be roleblocker, in which case town just autowins

2/3 of the time then cop gets an extra check.

[T3]

wait nvm thesre's an equal chance of cop and nothing and cop and doc

[T3]

hi
rl happened
i exist

[T3]

nk15 busses as scum right
because townstumps

[T3]

tejate is town from the exchange with fferry i think

[T3]

nk15 busses as scum right
because townstumps

townstumps? is this a recent game?

townstumps was in abt july 2021, i think. he bussed all of his teammates, claimed commuter as commuter enabler, got cced, and was limmed d1

[T3]

agonna read nk's iso

[T3]

Frogs and Winfried are town. For reasons see 215; that Winfried saw that also makes them town, along with their solving.
My predecessor seems to have tunneled on hunterr. That scumcase was not good. Hunterr's scumcase isn't good either. TVT or TVS? Not completely sure if it was TVT, but it looks like one so it is probably one.
I am not seeing any scum yet - and for me, having 2-3 townreads is rare, while not having scumreads is also rare - so let's look at the people in hiding.
Biratog claimed PR. We'll see later if that's scum or town.
Meteor has disappeared.
Dragons has been... giving reads with no justification.
VOTE: Save The Dragons
We should vote them to E-1, so that we can see the reasons for the reads and their reason for hiding their reasoning.

the reason for voting std doesn't feel legit at all

[T3]

Taly has been guilty of the same, so...VOTE: taly

<lots of reads>

Dragons

was asked for justifications for their reads and promptly gave them with good logic. I called them out for being low content before, but I think feel giving detailed, well thought-out reads when asked is a town move.

I can't agree with you.

Dragons has been... giving reads with no justification.

that's how i play

if you want justification you can ask for them

The problem is it was abudantly clear earlier that people wanted justifications.
Yet none came forward.
I suspect that they needed the time to stitch together believable cases.
pedit

I'm not really buying what STD is selling here. Him stepping up his game up to a wall of notes about players is at best null and you'll easily find the same pattern in his scum game (Newbie 2067 - Pizza! - End!) ). I would even say that, for him, it somewhat rings alarm bells that he's playing the good citizen under pressure now. Other than that the wall fires a lot of random shots in every direction, that are so non commital that it hurts. But after Prism has left, it's yet another postponement on conclusion or direction. I am not buying the naive tone towards binatog either. Everyone can see that Bina is just being useless (especially after Binatogs latest post #282 appears even intentionally provocative spam, again) and STD talks to him like Bina could be a good source of inspiration or information, please. I agree with Not Known that STD has been doing the same thing as Taly and he's my second in line for scumreads.

Yeah exactly... I once again agree.

people: post justification for your reads
me: okay i'll do that
people: you're scum

It's not the justification, but this

if you want justification you can ask for them

when it was already clear that people wanted their reads several posts ago.

nk votes taly but continues to tunnel std

[T3]

Would you mind analyzing what you think these posts mean, then, T3? What are you getting from them?

scum is ffery, nk15 refused to put his vote where his case was

[T3]

for like, 7 days, i wasn't in a game with dwlee

[T3]

stuf that happened:
binatog13 (now raichu) softed pr, and was promptly wagoned
there was then a wagon on taly (now ffery)
then meg was wagoned, claimed cop. nk15 cced cop.
meg was limmed and flipped mason, and then claimed scum.

[T3]

oh yeah, my slot was wagoned and then got permabanned

[T3]

*softly whispering*: it's probably ffery

[T3]

another thing to think about is that nk15 probably wasn't expecting to endgame

[T3]

nk15 was voting std while tunneling ffery
so he was probably bussing ffery

[T3]

There was no reason for Not Known to vote Taly when he did if that slot is his partner :I He was the second vote on them at the time. Is Not Known both so aggressive that he distances by risking bussing but then also CCs to protect fferyllt? Is fferyllt the mafia PR and thus too important to lose or not. And what do you have to say about fferyllt's behavior since..? Not voting meg, constantly insisting they should be limmed first so town can solve correctly?

nk15 knows he won't endgame, so bussing is his best strategy

[T3]

Also, a theory that checks a lot of boxes for me: All SE are town, **scumteam is Meteor Tome and Laplacian**.

Meteor and Laplacian adapting both ends of the spectrum of opinions on the Bitanog matter, which is a common initial plan for scum to make. It would explain why both Meteor seemed so cocksure about supporting Binatog while Laplacian on the other side of the matter seemed so confident about supporting attacking Bitanog. They both didn't have to care and the bitanog matter was an easy one to fake activity around. It makes sense why Laplacian keeps argueing for this once it has become somewhat anticlimactic to do so, he simply didn't adapt to the new situation yet and he really doesn't care if the wagon goes anywhere or not even though he claims the opposite. It also fits fine with Prisms observation about Meteor she made in #9.

I'm in no rush to pursue this yet by putting my money where my mouth is as if this is correct, we have all SEs on our side and good winning chances, but this is what I currently find convincing and resolving a lot of conflicts I have. Other than that I'm fine sheeping Prism.

How does me focusing on Binatog make me scum? If anything, focusing on him rather than hoping on the newest wagon is less of a scum action. Especially now with hunterr having several votes. If I was scum I could just hop on, push him one step closer to elim, and wait for meteor to drop the hammer.

Yeah, except that these two would be in a very difficult situation tomorrow.

Well, so much for the case I was writing up of Bin + Taly scumteam based on Taly's lack of activity. It had precise time stamps and everything -_-. Apparently SE stands for sudden exit. Anyway, hi fferylit, your reads mostly match up with mine so far so I'm provisionally calling you town. Welcome to the game

Pocket.exe initiated... and the case vanishes.

Very suspicious.

Like two days left on the timer. I was scum so I didn't pay attention to this in my first game, lol, is the theory / strategy that it's best to lim d1?

Definitely better. Even if the elim is town, it's better for town than no elim. There is useful data in the vote counts when the leading wagon's alignment is a known fact. That helps town PRs on Night 1 and all of town in the subsequent game days.

Yeah, two days left means we should probably all start stating cases and read lists before we all hop on a wagon. Binatog is still my #1 scumread with his early post and refusal to elaborate/engage. If people make good cases I'm also willing to vote for Meteor/ahhlo, Prism/NK, or Taly/ff. While I feel bad voting replacements out when they haven't had much time in game, all of those slots have pinged me as sus at least once. I'm neutral to slight town for Dragons, hunterr, and Win, and strong town on frogs.

Explanation missing.

Note that my 'willing to vote list' there is basically in order of most to least sus. Both Meteor and ahhlo have pinged me as a bit scummy. Prism was weirdly aggressive and NK feels suspicious. And while I had a decent case against Taly, ff's posts and approach gives me enough town vibes to soften the entire slot

Mostly surface reads. Again.

So, this ISO mainly consists of surface reads, badly explained "reads" and one instance of pocketing where a case just vanishes instead of being brought into light altered, with caveats. Does town write up a big case and then drops all of the work just because a slot has become more towny? Looks like scum lying about having a substantial big case, or not being interested in being helpful.

VOTE: Laplacian

As for new people, while I obviously disagree with Tejate, they're explaining their points and engaging. I feel they lean town, but I also know I'm biased towards activity.
MegAzumaril hasn't said much, but I kind of like them just blitzing for an ahhlo vote. It's active af and ahhlo's high on a lot of peoples sus lists. Maybe it'll bring them back to talk more, and if not, at least get us info when they flip.
VOTE: ahhlo
That's E-1

That might be a bus.

Intent to hammer!

NK15 tunnels Lap, then randomly says that Lap is bussing, and then declares intent to hammer on ahhlo.
Then hexcompletely drops his Lap case and votes ffery.
So actually, possible scumpoints for Lap?

[T3]

Prism, on the other hand, does not strike me as someone who would TMI or do bussing within the first couple of pages. I suspect they probably play their early game analytically, probably being the one of the first to post reads in a given game, keeping options open and maybe throwing a scum in there to distance just in case.

This can work primarily because it seems they like to direct the conversation, which as scum has the benefit of killing off topics that don't further your wincon. I'm not confident that NK would attempt or is even capable of such a play.

This is true. I've been looking for possible partners through a very NK15 focused lens, but I haven't been paying much attention to Prism.

[T3]

dwlee, reads?

[T3]

I just realized that there are officially only 2 people who have been here since game start. This has been something.

welcome to newbie games on ms

[T3]

frogs
tejate

-- dwlee --

laplacian

ffery???????

[T3]

i do not object to hammering

[T3]

Where is the t of 3

following along but forgetting to post

[T3]

lap is frozen scum.

[T3]

i don't have much to say rn. i'll do some more iso's

[T3]

i didn't like a few of frog's original posts but then they made some p genuine posts

[T3]

VOTE: laplacian
the game just ends here i think, a lot of stuff points to him.

[T3]

I poe'd it. Hbu?

nk15 interactions

[T3]

i am not mason

[T3]

UNVOTE:

[T3]

if we're going by play alone, then
frogs
ffery
dwlee
counting interactions, then uh
i have no idea :dry:

[T3]

in post 16 of ffery's iso, ffery says that prism will find something to immediately nitpick. ffery then claimed now that prism nitpicking is probably not bussing.
huh
it originally seemed like a possible smoking gun, but now when i look at it i'm not sure if it's ai for ffery

[T3]

ffery's defeatism feels genuine which makes me pause.

[T3]

ffery's defeatism feels genuine which makes me pause.

you said this but you went nowhere with it. what does a pause do? you're not questioning anyone. you're not discussing. you're just waiting. for what? for frogs to hammer? for the day to end? this gamestate is apathy inducing? is that the point?

i had to go.
i'm still scumhunting but i really judt think it's you atp

[T3]

actually, idk.

[T3]

dwlee has been fairly towny today.

thinking about it, scum you can probably fake this :/

[T3]

VOTE: frogs

[T3]

dwlee has been fairly towny today.

thinking about it, scum you can probably fake this :/

You me or you ffery?

ffery

[T3]

... or dwlee could be scum rushing endgame

[T3]

I haven’t seen scum you in endgame

[T3]

Do you not read when you die

literally never

[T3]

Who and why do you think it is, T3?

you, based on your actions today and yesterday

[T3]

Want to elaborate? @_@

you did no solving yesterday and shaded me immediately after ffery did so
VOTE: dogsdogs

[T3]

As for new people, while I obviously disagree with Tejate, they're explaining their points and engaging. I feel they lean town, but I also know I'm biased towards activity.
MegAzumaril hasn't said much, but I kind of like them just blitzing for an ahhlo vote. It's active af and ahhlo's high on a lot of peoples sus lists. Maybe it'll bring them back to talk more, and if not, at least get us info when they flip.
VOTE: ahhlo
That's E-1

That might be a bus.

Intent to hammer!

[T3]

is that your slot

Yes

[T3]

i'll do a full reread tomorrowish, but frogs is just scum here.

[T3]

they have a lot of slick realtime interaction with you that is characteristic of scum pocketing

[T3]

oh FUCK the deadline is in 10 hours

[T3]

Agreed! Yeah. You're the one deciding now because you've got the hardest decision lol.

this is just scum.

[T3]

gg.
i feel like if i efforted more d3 i might have won but nk15's interactions were just too weird

it's pretty typical that newbies have a lot of replacements but outside of that, it's p atypical

[T3]

em was fun.
i was perpetual limbait because everyone kinda just got 'bad vibes' from my lines. i'm also not good at coming up with reads on the spot.