Newbie 2085 - Game Over

[WINfried]

Hi there, I'm WINfried, just joint as a replacement for Panda and I'm a townie!

VOTE: ishrar

Reason: First person in the player list who hasn't posted yet.

Have fun, everyone!

[WINfried]

Taly: What's your reason for holding back on a vote right now, do you always play like that?

[WINfried]

Greetings fellow townies. Let us all work together in a non-suspicious manner

Can't tell if you're a townie who does not give a crap or a mafia who doesn't give a crap. But either way I already like you so that's a plus. Hey semi experienced people, do you join newbie games to help or because you hope facing easier opponents? In other news, I had too much coffee, so I'll have to stop myself from commenting for a while and look for other stuff to do. If I don't come back I probably had a heart attack.

Also, regarding "crap": To what degree is swearing okay here? Do I need to watch my tongue?
Also part 2: I will start writing stuff that isn't really intended to be related to the game in italic font style so you don't have to read it if you don't want to.

[WINfried]

Got some decaf and some sleep. Heart attack avoided for now I think.

Binatog, I'm curious about your thoughts so far, care to chime in?

[WINfried]

I guess drawing attention to yourself by flashy behaviour and suggesting you might hold a special role isn't a clear sign you are mafia, might be a sign you're not clinging to much to your virtual life though. But I'm not the fun police (for now ).

I do wonder though, was it a mere coincidence that you showed up again right after I poked you with a stick?

[WINfried]

I love random questions at early stages of the game. That way, we will get to know each other and possibly gather info,

especially that I am a potential role that will help town.

Upon further thought, this comment appears even stranger to me than initially. Not only have you breadcrumbed a town role as mafia before (game 2048), it also didn't do you any good, and you said you wouldn't do that again. And you can't even claim that you didn't expect anyone to bring that up because that has also happened to you before. And you suggest you might be a power role 5 minutes after you state that as a player you are "neutral and passive". What?

Why do you keep playing with fire?

UNVOTE: ishrar
VOTE: Binatog13

[WINfried]

Post #900 in that game he spelt "T R A C K E R" with the first letters in the words of his comment.

[WINfried]

Post #900 in that game he spelt "T R A C K E R" with the first letters in the words of his comment.

OK, thank you for showing me! I completely disagree that this is analogous or means anything for his play now lol. That was him fully fakeclaiming a PR on day 2 after being put at E-1. That's a situation in which a lot of scum will fakeclaim and is totally different to a soft on page 2 of a game. It's possible to do as scum but less likely and it isn't backed up by any meta of his.

It's not the same situation. Thing is, the topic of fake claims has been debated revolving that situation and he's been strategizing around fake claims before, so I'm not buying into the "newbie made risky play without really knowing what they're doing" explanation, that is implied here when someone assumes that he actually is a somewhat naive PR. At least he's not getting a free pass from me here. Remove this from the equation, and he's still giving me bad vibes for being pretty quiet for the start of the game and then suddenly coming out of the woods 1 hour after I poked him with this odd reaction.

[WINfried]

I'm waiting to hear back from Win before I go further.

There was neither a question nor a clear accusation in your comment, so I didn't feel automatically compelled to respond. But I'm not gonna be a party pooper and try to give my thoughts on your thoughts, maybe it helps somewhat:

Not too fond of this Binatog push, I see absolutely no reason to doubt a PR claim even though it was a strange one. It’s already bad enough that a PR has been outed for no reason, if we pursue him we run the risk of forcing him to claim which PR, giving the mafia setup information and making their night action easier to plan out. In the unlikely scenario that he is mafia fake-claiming PR I highly doubt the facade will be sustainable further into the game.

...Did you read the part where they softed PR as scum previously?

...Did you read the part where they softed PR as scum previously?

Yeah but I imagine that was a learned lesson and not a move that will be repeated. And once again, if I’m wrong, and he is mafia, he’s essentially signed his death warrant as a fake PR claim will not be sustainable in later days.

I'm in agreement with

MT

here, the hardcrumb is self-resolving. Bringing attention to it feels rolefishy.

Your feelings about that are either wrong or fake. If I have to pretend to read myself on that idea I'd say I probably wouldn't be so cocky about that if I was scum.

[

so I'm not buying into the "newbie made risky play without really knowing what they're doing" explanation

I get not giving

Bing

a pass off this basis, but this feels like a preemptive justification.

Bing

has yet to reply to any suspicion on them based off that post.

You say I'm preemptively justifying. Is this an innuendo I'm not really getting? MT has made the point that he believes Binatog has a PR, and in response I explained why I disagree. So I suppose I justified my vote, what's the bad thing about that?

All in all your post talking about me felt fishy to me, pretty vague, easy to construe anything or nothing from it. But that's easy of an conclusion for me to reach when knowing for sure you are wrong, so I'm hesitant to act on it.

[WINfried]

Binatog: Yeah, somehow I knew you would say that right after I pressed sent. Remind me to not deliver answers with my questions

I still want to know what makes you think it's a good idea to suggest you might have a PR. I have read through some of your convos in earlier games and you seem analytical enough about strategy to not do that on accident. Did you expect not to get asked about it?

[WINfried]

If you guys don't like what others are selling can you please make a better case?

I don't know what you all are waiting for but whatever it is, it isn't going to be a miracle that solves the game by itself.

[WINfried]

You'd make an epic door-to-door salesman.

UNVOTE: Binatog13

[WINfried]

frogfrog i'm curious what makes you believe STD is town?

[WINfried]

You'd make an epic door-to-door salesman.

UNVOTE: Binatog13

...What about that response was persuasive to you?

About that response itself? Nothing. But the fact that he simply ignored my own question to him and just picked one by another player strikes me as him genuinely not giving a fuck if he dies or lives. He won't make it very long into the game no matter what. Also half of the town appears to be protecting the guy more than their newborn baby so I don't think that bus was going anywhere anyway.

[WINfried]

About that response itself? Nothing. But the fact that he simply ignored my own question to him and just picked one by another player strikes me as him genuinely not giving a fuck if he dies or lives. He won't make it very long into the game no matter what. Also half of the town appears to be protecting the guy more than their newborn baby so I don't think that bus was going anywhere anyway.

Ehhhh this post is kind of bad. "The wagon was going nowhere" is a scum concern. I do agree that Binatog's soft will resolve itself over time, though.

I disagree there frogs, I think scum is very fine with having their votes sit in dead/useless spots, as long as they don't get called out for it. In fact, if anything, in my experience scum generally prefer to have nothing to do with it when a person does end up dying. I want my vote to actually achieve something though. Although I currently have a problem figuring out where to place it now, that's my biggest issue.

[WINfried]

Oh, fair point! WINfried, what

do

you think about Taly?

I am honestly pretty clueless in this game, but entertaining a wild guess for Taly:

Slightly Town. I think they would have much easier ways to appear more... uhhh unsuspicious, and I'm wondering why they don't. For example why on earth have they still not voted for anyone yet? You'd think scum could fabricate some case here. I also had a look at another game of them where they were super engaged and scum hunting and enthusiastic which makes me feel like they're genuinely having a bad time right now or something.

As for the observation that hunterr is making there about an interjection: I focus on some things I care about or notice and ignore the current discussion when I post, or might respond to the rest later. At that point I wanted to know why Binatog is so quiet and didn't care about whatever was currently discussed. The only way to avoid this would be to address literally everything I guess?

[WINfried]

WINfried, is the game you're referring to one in which Taly was town aligned or scum aligned?

town. the game I had a look at was

Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves)

Shouldn't the discrepancy make you feel like they're being suspiciously different here?

Maybe if it was small, but the discrepancy is obviously so big I suspected something else going on. Generally players obviously try to match their scum and town game.

Or is your explanation that they seem too laid back to be scum?

I wouldn't phrase it like that because than I'd call it a clear townread. I have been cocksure about reads in the past but I'm not in this game.

What makes, say, Dragons or Binatog not fit for this profile?

I have a slight townread on dragons as well. But that doesn't mean I would consider a day 1 wagon on them entirely illfounded. I'm not sure I'd rush to defend them, even though I probably wouldn't hammer them if it comes down to it. Some thinking help doesn't hurt. That's where our opinions differ I guess.

Bina didn't seem laid back to me when I initially voted for him anyhow, he responded quite promptly to me poking him and before he was just lurking. It became clearer over time how he doesn't care about anything. And that guy annoys me so much, on a bad day I might even hammer him if expect him to flip town.

In general: It's day 1, I haven't figured this game out at all and I have conflicting feelings about every player, except for you (don't quote me on that if you turn out to be scum). I'm not sure about Taly's alignment either, a wagon on him is probably still better than nothing happening in the game at all. But, leaning town if I had to make a bet right now.

[WINfried]

Quoting hunterr #192 here:


> Remind me why you dislike Bina again?

In case he is town, that is, but that's a simple question to answer, I'm surprised you'd even ask. He ain't trying to figure out who is scum, he doesn't care for his own life, he doesn't care for the state of the game, he's just being a provocateur with one statement and calls that his gameplay style. I dislike him because others try something (including trying to clean up the mess he creates) and he pats himself on the back probably thinking he's some kind of genius for suggesting he could have a PR. He even literally said that it's up to town for figuring out his bluffs and he's 100% gonna end up on my no-play-list after this game for sure. I could forgive him commiting a bad stunt, but using it as an excuse to sit on your ass and try nothing else is just too much.

> What are your thoughts on the exchange between me and Prism?

Prism is mirroring the thoughts I had on your slot before and I can't suspect her for typing out what I was thinking. You being scum would also explain why I have a hard time finding scum in the players before you were around.

Your first impression is somewhat performative, therefor some of your arguments are a joke in my eyes, but I'm not particularly scumreading that, it's sensible to mull over everything after joining a game. I rolled my eyes at your initial reason for voting for prism. I mean you found a random logical contradiction and that's supposed to be scumtell like townies never contradict themselves or what?

She could be faking it, but Prisms actions seem very town motivated. She displays constructive effort, spots a lot of good points and encourages others to become active. A mislynch on her would be a sad joke as she'd easily be the MVP if she's town.

All that being said I'm gonna lend her some firepower for now.

VOTE: vote hunterr

[WINfried]

fucked up the vote tag.
VOTE: hunterr

[WINfried]

The reason i register frogs as almost certain town is that he actually took the time to read up in detail what i refered to about bitanogs past game, asking what post exactly to look at and reading up on it even to the degree of understanding what exactly has happened during that game and how comparable it is. He didn't really have a reason to do so, argueing for not pursueing that wagon could have been easily done without putting in that work. That COULD be done as mafia, but only a townie has a natural drive to do so. I would bet money on frogs being town and I'm willing to carry that believe a very long way, probably until the end of the game.

[WINfried]

Also, a theory that checks a lot of boxes for me: All SE are town, **scumteam is Meteor Tome and Laplacian**.

Meteor and Laplacian adapting both ends of the spectrum of opinions on the Bitanog matter, which is a common initial plan for scum to make. It would explain why both Meteor seemed so cocksure about supporting Binatog while Laplacian on the other side of the matter seemed so confident about supporting attacking Bitanog. They both didn't have to care and the bitanog matter was an easy one to fake activity around. It makes sense why Laplacian keeps argueing for this once it has become somewhat anticlimactic to do so, he simply didn't adapt to the new situation yet and he really doesn't care if the wagon goes anywhere or not even though he claims the opposite. It also fits fine with Prisms observation about Meteor she made in #9.

I'm in no rush to pursue this yet by putting my money where my mouth is as if this is correct, we have all SEs on our side and good winning chances, but this is what I currently find convincing and resolving a lot of conflicts I have. Other than that I'm fine sheeping Prism.

[WINfried]

How does me focusing on Binatog make me scum?

Scum is afraid of getting called out and therefor they have a harder time entering new situations (and therefor new risks). They would love for the whole first day to be only about "should we pressure bitanog or not" because then they only have to develop a position once and if they're feeling save with it they are happy to let the day pass. Town on the other hand is concerned with the reality at hand and that there are some things happening and others not happening, they will have less of an issue finding a new way to be useful. Sure, some townies tunnel vision on a hard read on someone and don't care about anything else anymore. But that isn't the case for you and bita as you stated yourself you mostly want to see them squeal and not necessarily eliminate them.

If anything, focusing on him rather than hoping on the newest wagon is less of a scum action. Especially now with hunterr having several votes. If I was scum I could just hop on, push him one step closer to elim, and wait for meteor to drop the hammer.

And by doing (for example) that, create a new situation, risk rocking the boat and getting found out when they are feeling so comfy sitting on a long gone opportunity.

[WINfried]

Oh right. WINfried how do you reconcile your read that the scum team is Laplacian / Meteor Tome with the fact that Meteor is scum reading Laplacian?

By being an idiot who has lost track of votes and skipped over that post. I was just considering if I should just be hiding that I am retarded but I'll just be frank about it now. Tomes push on Laplacian would be admittedly very bold and I'm not sure I can still buy my own theory now, even though it's still possible.

And I will use this golden opportunity to bust my head into the sand and go to bed at a proper time today. Remind me to make an alt account for my next game.

[WINfried]

Yeah I don't like making definitive statements.

[WINfried]

Well, that's odd.

VOTE: Prism

[WINfried]

Why not Winfried?

I don't know. I can't tell you the deeper reasons behind why my personality is what it is.

I believe there's more than enough information for you to be confident in your reads.

I couldn't disagree more.

[WINfried]

[WINfried]

The way Taly has just been watching from the sideline while this town has not been getting their act together and spiraling down into paralysis is unbelievable at this point.

VOTE: Taly

[WINfried]

Gonna join me on this frogs?

[WINfried]

You've pretty much already said everything I could say about it. ahhlo's theory somewhat falls apart with that basic premise, that I could have only know about a players other games by reading about it in a mafia thread, being wrong. I guess I'd argue that Binatog claiming PR plus me throwing him under the bus immediately would be a very risky scum plan in which you could very easily fall apart as a team and implicate each other, that I could see myself only pull off if I preferably knew and trusted my partner and certainly not with someone like Binatog. Binatogs course of action means he's almost certainly going to die and bussing can backfire, if you read through the Mason thread in his first game Newbie 2041 you'll quickly see that he makes his allies nervous too. Not sure how locked in ahhlo is to this theory but I hope he'll reconsider his vote.

[WINfried]

Well, that's odd.

VOTE: Prism

I've been reading Win as townlean for a while, but this post felt really odd. Why vote someone who's basically saying goodbye to the game?

Two things that triggered this.

1.) It was a public apology and not a discreet message to the mod what I would have expected. The guilt in her the messages of her later days, including the apology to STD before, seemed really odd to me and I have seen such an exit from a Mafia game once before and that person was scum so I have been super curious about that slot when that happened.

2.) What made me not want to touch that slot before is that, I thought if she's town she's doing the lords work as a player and would be a an absolutely comical mislynch that I couldn't stand behind, but when she replaced that fell away and it was just another slot to scrutinize for alignment.

I later reconciled this with all the points that seemed to speak not only in her, but also the slots favor and decided I could easily let it slide again when more sensible alternatives came to mind.

This especially feels incongruous with:

Yeah I don't like making definitive statements.

Can we get an explanation here?

Hunterr criticised my phrasing there. And the answer is just I don't like making definitive statements. In general. Whenever I state something, I try not to forget to mention fringe cases. I know hunterr was aiming for a game related reason there but the answer simply isn't game related it's just how I talk, I think about what else might be the case and also put that in the sentence.

[WINfried]

And I was trying to get at the contrast between not liking definitive + immediate prism vote, but the past experience explains that I guess

I see. Well I stand by it being odd, I still think of it as odd and I'll tell Prism that I don't really think she had anything to apologize for after the game as getting burnt out happens sometimes and if she is town she already delivered a lot of content to help her team. The vote itself can appear more definitive than it was I guess, but I probably would have said another thing about it if I had been certain by any means.

[WINfried]

I'm not really buying what STD is selling here. Him stepping up his game up to a wall of notes about players is at best null and you'll easily find the same pattern in his scum game (Newbie 2067 - Pizza! - End!) ). I would even say that, for him, it somewhat rings alarm bells that he's playing the good citizen under pressure now. Other than that the wall fires a lot of random shots in every direction, that are so non commital that it hurts. But after Prism has left, it's yet another postponement on conclusion or direction. I am not buying the naive tone towards binatog either. Everyone can see that Bina is just being useless (especially after Binatogs latest post #282 appears even intentionally provocative spam, again) and STD talks to him like Bina could be a good source of inspiration or information, please. I agree with Not Known that STD has been doing the same thing as Taly and he's my second in line for scumreads.

[WINfried]

people: post justification for your reads
me: okay i'll do that
people: you're scum

Agreed to the spirit of this take, actually Dragons is an experienced player, I definitely believe that reads post

could

have totally been faked by him, but I see nothing explicitly suspicious in it. Someone

(Not Known, at first? Before making the reasonable argument about whether reads have been asked for before?)

said they thought it was scummy for Dragons to change his play now, but would you have scumread him

less

if he continued to be low content..? I would have scumread him more, over time, for that. I'm not townlocking him or anything but I need something about him to scumping me before making a push, and his reads post and demeanor so far hasn't done that

Posting reads wasn't really the main issue. It was that he gave his effort wall and seemed otherwise completely fine with town going back to sleep for now. Nothing that would actually matter. Just some sprinkled notes. Noteworthy also not a stance on Taly which was the only relevant wagon at the time. Just a few days before deadline. Later he posted more things but that was only after he got some heat for it. I find this also a very strange reaction for an experienced player. If town gave everyone who jumps through a hoop on request a townread then mafia could never lose a game. He can't possibly expect getting a free townread for it, and yet, apparently, he did.

Btw on a general note, is posting reads just about getting townpoints or what? I'd care a lot more about what I achieve with my reads and not only complain about not getting the proper towncred. But if reads are just posted to tick some effort boxes, sure, then that's different.

[WINfried]

WINfried and maybe Dragons I should do an ISO reread of and check myself, soon

Oh god, yes, please build a case against me. I want to get off this wild ride.

[WINfried]

Well, so much for the case I was writing up of Bin + Taly scumteam based on Taly's lack of activity.

It's not like the slots alignment changes because a new player swapped in, or that the player would even feel compelled to keep up the behaviour of the previous player, especially when there is a wagon on them.

Apparently SE stands for sudden exit.

We should change the win condition to who lasts through the whole game.

[WINfried]

I think I still scumread the ahhlo slot, though ahhlo's inexperience on this site and his very few posts so far make him hard for me to read with confidence. The premise of 290 and 291 that WINfried and Binatog were doing theater seems wild and baseless, and the lack of engagement since isn't a good sign.

You know they haven't done much yet but the casebuilding gave me a genuine vibe. But yeah I wouldn't be surprised if they become the next afk player. I don't really remember what I thought about meteor, I think he gave me mixed feelings. I really found it weird when he stepped in so hard to defend a troll, but maybe I was thinking it more from a "protect town's sanity" angle, and he from a "protect the claim" angle. He did seem genuine and engaged about what they were trying to do. Obviously all the replace outs help scum, as it buys time and replace ins can't be hold accountable for the actions of the replace outs.

[WINfried]

I feel ya man.

[WINfried]

Scumteam is still Taly/fferyllt and STD, is the issue with that.

[WINfried]

I volunteered to take Prism's slot, but Not Known beat me to it. The travails of living on the west coast.

Suitable amount of shame for having replaced into the scum slot instead of the town slot.

[WINfried]

I don't believe Not Known would go from door to door and give half the town a reason to vote for him if he was scum.

[WINfried]

I looked at the case and rebuttals with a day of sleep and concluded that I had been tunneling

No disagreement on that.

Iand that the answer about the execution threat was completely valid,

It wasn't exactly

his own

execution he was worried about. He needed to derail the wagon on Taly, though. Eventually he got a rise out of you, had you look irrational and/or suspicious, and even had you townread him for it.

[WINfried]

A world where fferyllt/taly and STD aren't both scum is very unlikely because the way they've been tiptoeing around each other is just ridiculous.

fferylt has STD in their most suspicious players bin (384) yet they show no interest in actually trying to get him eliminated. STD has fferyllt/taly's slot as "wow taly's iso is a whole lot of nothing. i could be convinced to vote taly." (325). There is a wagon on fferylt, there has been a wagon on taly, yet his vote his been anywhere but there. The phrasing by itself already rings a big bell, posturing to get pseudo-bus towncred points without actually being on the wagon let alone actively help the wagon. Side note: No way they only started acknowledging another SE slot's ISO/posting behavior this late in the day, long after half the town has already done so.

It's both of them, that simple.

Laplacian: Your vote is still on a pretty heavy towner. If you've read my last argument for that I hope you gave it some consideration. If you did, it's your vote, that's fine. But if not, please do. Your arguments against him are criticising behavior "throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks" is bad in the real world, but in mafia, on day 1, it's perfectly fine to try as townie and definitely better than nothing.

[WINfried]

WINfried's 418 is a theory I really like to see made. I have not done enough reading back to catch stuff like this and I think it outlines something plausible! Do you think this page is theater though, WINfried?

Yep, confident about that.

Hello, I go by Tejate and this is my first game of forum mafia although I've played the game in real life and in online circles for many years. I actually already did a full readthrough of this thread as soon as I signed up for replacement and have started preparing my notes and thoughts on the current gamestate, but before that I have an important question I need to ask to WINfried.

You'd make an epic door-to-door salesman.

UNVOTE: Binatog13

What exactly was your motivation for this back in post 93? Do you recall?

Prism has asked me about this post before. I answered in 106 and I think I have nothing to add to the answer.

[WINfried]

IIt seems like it would be a rather wasteful play to attempt on day 1 if you were both scum.

Haven't processed your entire post yet, but with "play", are you referring to the dialogue between the two that went on from last to this page or something else?

[WINfried]

I'm not sure how convincing i find this considering the degree on the softbussing seems entirely reactive towards the announcement of the accusation.

I really don't subscribe to "towntells" that conveniently stream in after the read. Both me and NK announce we're scumreading Taly and STD and then STD announces he doesn't like Taly much, that gives me nothing. At best I wouldn't care. Same for today.

[WINfried]

My favorite part about this was how fferyllt fought like a lion to get a wagon against her only clear scumread going to go against the ahhlo elimination. /s

Everyone who is on the ahhlo wagon should unvote asap and vote fferyllt and we can call it a day and an easy win here, thanks.

So Town Their Blood is Green

frogsfrogs
WINfried

Town But I'd Probably Reevaluate on Day 2/3

Hunterr slot
Laplacian
Not Known 15

------Line of Limmability------

Not Town Enough, but there are glimmers

aahlo

Not Town

STD

Still probably should give this a day, but damn

Binatog slot

I'm a lot happier now.

[WINfried]

Why it is a problem that fferyllt thinks of STD as scum but does nothing to try and get him eliminated and just watches someone else conveniently going down? I mean if thats no problem to you then I can't help it I guess but I shall be known as LOSERfried if I'm wrong about this.

[WINfried]

That's not my issue. My issue is there was no push to turn this read here into an actual wagon:

VOTE: fferylt

This is scum.

[WINfried]

That means we're currently at:

ahhlo (3) - Tejate Raichu, MegAzumarill, Laplacian
fferyllt (3) - WINfried, ahhlo, Save The Dragons
Laplacian (1) - Not Known 15
MegAzumarill (2) - fferyllt, frogsfrogs

[WINfried]

ahhlo failed signifigantly.

I can dig testing people, but he failed at this test by doing what? How should he have reacted to your comment to pass the test?

[WINfried]

I mean imagine you got put to E-1 instead. How would you react,
Would you just give up as Vt?

I've seen a wide variety of reactions towards E-1 pushes and ahhlos reaction did not ring any alarm bell for me. And seeing that my wagon is a lost cause for this game day, I kind of want to do this test with you now.

VOTE: MegAzumarill

[WINfried]

[WINfried]

Because I read the crowd and the crowd says no, everyone had the option to join for a long time and no one showed interest of doing so. The wagon had no

legs

wheels.

[WINfried]

ahhlo: Boring office clerk wagon.
Meg: Hot christmas party wagon. Join up boys.

[WINfried]

Do you really think you can't convince 1 person?

Obviously I couldn't, as you didn't join it.

[WINfried]

page top

ahhlo (3) - Tejate Raichu, MegAzumarill, Laplacian
fferyllt (2) - ahhlo, Save The Dragons
Laplacian (1) - Not Known 15
MegAzumarill (3) - fferyllt, frogsfrogs, WINfried

[WINfried]

Another good point is that Ahhlo has basically claimed VT and reducing claims helps town.

This is an interesting point. The thought didn't occur to me as I was mostly worried ahhlo would simply not claim or say anything cause he doesn't appear to be on top of the game let alone be aware of general conventions. I certainly did not think he's in the clear power role wise just because he said

something

.

However. Seeing it from a scum perspective, I can see how ahhlos not claiming a power role would be "good enough" to be parsed as VT for the night kill choice.

I'm smelling blood here.

[WINfried]

I just don't think you'll flip town is the issue

[WINfried]

I hope everyone has a great day tomorrow!

Thanks. You too!

[WINfried]

I said this before but data on ahhlo is very thin and the scumhunting they did seem not fake to me, and from what I know now about them, I'm not even sure if they would have put in that "much" effort into building a case if they were scum. At the same time Meg is giving me bad feelings by having tagged ahhlo as claimed vanilla, I can see scum having paid more attention to that then town would have, but regarding this part i may be seeing ghosts and I might be punishing Meg for being more attentive than I was.

Meg's response to the push also rubbed me the wrong way. They've been pushing out defense reasons like a factory but at the same time they seem pretty relaxed about it. When I played mafia with my countrymen years ago, that was usually more of a scummy attitude. Townies tended to have more emotionally stressed responses while more trouble finding good reasons not to vote them off.

I guess that is more a hunch than a case.

[WINfried]

Is there a consensus opinion on ahhlo having claimed VT or not? I did not parse their comments that way but would like to know if others did. I'm currently just as worried at hammering ahhlo and finding a PR after all as I am at going for someone else and hitting one.

[WINfried]

I don't know where the "ahhlo claimed VT" case even comes from, unless I missed something in their posts, which is possible because I haven't been really reading them. If that read only comes from the fact that ahhlo didn't claim a PR at e-1, that's pretty flimsy.

I think so. Meg parsed them posting without claiming as claiming Vt. I did not. I just thought nothing of it and wasn't even sure if they understand what's going on.

[WINfried]

E-1 with intent if I'm not mistaken

Correct.

[WINfried]

Winfried why do you oppose a frogs lim?
Or if you don't why aren't you voting there?

215

[WINfried]

Are you investigating frogs+me as scumteam?

[WINfried]

While I'm certainly not ruling the possibility of WIN and frogs being scumteam

I wish

[WINfried]

The deadline for Day 1 is in 1 day, 14 hours, 47 minutes. (copypaste, not updated here)

[WINfried]

I think a ffery wagon is possible but less excited for that then ahhlo

I might have missed that but how is the ahhlo wagon in any way "exciting"?

[WINfried]

That brings our realistic wagon options down to NK15, Meg, and ahhlo. Am I mistaken about this or does that sound about right?

NK15 is a big nono for me. Meg and ahhlo undecided. fferyllt i left because no one joined and now i'd be surprised if there is suddenly support i guess, std would still be up for me.

[WINfried]

What bugs me out about STD is that his reads seem like he's only half in the game but his staying alive strats seem to be as sharp as canine teeth. What do you think about that fferyllt? With Meg on the other hand its somewhat on par, they seem neither good at reading the game nor at keeping himself alive.

[WINfried]

Well if you dont like me argueing in your favor, be my guest.

[WINfried]

[WINfried]

Aight, I think it's fair to not wait forever so we can get things done without chaos.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: STD

If needed I will in doubt +1 ahhlo too. Not really feeling megs anymore for today.

[WINfried]

VOTE: Save The Dragons

In case it needs to be literal.

[WINfried]

what convinced you?

[WINfried]

(bad wagon no cookie!)

[WINfried]

I'll say right now that Meg seemed like way too much of a pushover to be scum in this game. Easiest elim of my life if he actually was

[WINfried]

I tried meg, sorry

[WINfried]

Hello T3

[WINfried]

wait am I dumb? Were you even on E-1? I count fferyllt, frogs and tejate....

[WINfried]

yeah okay now I am mad.

[WINfried]

HE WASNT EVEN ON E-1 HOLY SHIT......

[WINfried]

live catchups be like

[WINfried]

just fyi: hunterr (the player) has left us. he's been replaced by meg who claimed cop now.

[WINfried]

i hate cliffhangers.

[WINfried]

Merry Christmas!

[WINfried]

Keep this page in mind going forward. Particularly Meg's post 868.

This is

me explicitly not counterclaiming

but paranoid as all hell.

Someone convince me how that comment is not blatant rolefishing.

[WINfried]

Some day we'll play as buddies, I'm sure

VOTE: fferyllt

[WINfried]

> I'd far prefer Meg

what

[WINfried]

Well, that's odd.

VOTE: Prism

Why the vote here?

298

[WINfried]

[WINfried]

I'm still here if you need someone to talk to fferyllt.

[WINfried]

I was talking about the game...

[WINfried]

I think you're just trying to sort of edgy-funny poke at your scum read, but yeah.

I think it's a pretty bad strat to place all your eggs in one basket and wait for a single event to happen to do something when the clock is ticking. i have criticised this before in the game i think, you weren't here then yet.

[WINfried]

I am honestly not sure why you'd think that after I showed my willingness to work with you yesterday.

[WINfried]

So you read three more pages?

What's your plan for catching up?

that's a pretty town post btw.

[WINfried]

WINfried, Laplacian : Solid Townreads

Fferyllt, Tejate : Feeling good about them

T3 : Feeling ok about, but they're not caught up yet

Save The Dragons : Do not even know anymore. Scum I GUESS.

Not Known 15 : Scum. Still not super confident about it

MegAzumarill : PR claim, intentionally not ranked

VOTE: Save The Dragons

I'll definitely check back in tomorrow and think about moving my vote. A fresh day start in this game will be so nice lol, can't wait.

I wonder how this makes you feel.

[WINfried]

I wonder more how it makes t3 feel but if he ain't there I'll take your opinion too.

[WINfried]

I don't think they have a reason to care what happens to town you. either you are gone, then town loses an active and experienced player, or you stay, then we'd have this tomorrow:

[WINfried]

So they'd probably spread out.

[WINfried]

I didn't really wanna talk about this but basically since my townread on him all frogs is giving me is creepy vibes and the feeling of being pocketed. But as I'm buying for now that meg is town i kinda had to give their pitch a serious consideration.

[WINfried]

And his mood seemed to be eerily lightening up since we discovered a cop too.

[WINfried]

I am currently entertaining the idea as frogs as scum and prism/nk15 being his potential buddy yes.

[WINfried]

both prism and frogs generated early game towntells by going into minute details about binatogs prior games. could have been a case of shared info in PT

[WINfried]

Do you think meg would really use their leverage as claimed cop to tell us to go after frogs? That feels like a really wasted opportunity to impact the game state if your days are already counted as scum. Why not make us go after you? And I am still biased by my read on meg that made me unvote them in the first place I guess.

[WINfried]

Tejate was town for me because I think bina would still be at the helm if the slot was scum and because tejate has been giving me a few micro pings that made me townread them.

[WINfried]

First here:

Hello, I go by Tejate and this is my first game of forum mafia although I've played the game in real life and in online circles for many years.

I actually already did a full readthrough of this thread as soon as I signed up for replacement and have started preparing my notes and thoughts on the current gamestate

, but before that I have an important question I need to ask to WINfried.

Admitting that seems unnecessary as scum and I probably wouldnt have done that,

[WINfried]

scumreads me is in the splash zone.

scumreads me is in the splash zone.

Do you think anyone would believe you in this game if someone claims cop and says they scumread you and you call them scum? I mean they could at least not try to explicitly save you by saying they townread you .

(and that being said, assuming Meg is scum we're in a pretty good shape so I'm not seeing how that'd even concern me a lot at the moment.)

[WINfried]

> I don't think Megs is trying to save me. Do you?

nah but they also weren't really trying all too much saving themselves. so that's just consistent.

[WINfried]

I feel like this is winding down with a bunch of unanswered questions that may get lost in the day-end shuffle.

This I can agree on.

[WINfried]

Do you not find this unusual?

Nah, I share the sentiment. Especially in a setting of a newb game it seems like a natural assumption anyway.

[WINfried]

Suspecting Meg before there is a CC dropped seems weird as fuck to me.

[WINfried]

but if you really must find out we could by hanging frogs real quick and see what that does.

[WINfried]

In fact. yolo. VOTE: frogsfrogs notwithstanding further input from T3.

[WINfried]

I will say this is the only alternative I find better than current wagon situations. I will probs just backdrop if anything else happens here because im pretty sure im not gonna like anything else.

[WINfried]

Wagon on frogs day 1 actually real? Well I'll be damned. This is one of the players I thought would be least likely to get more than one vote on them.

My vote isn't going to change for now but... interesting.

That probably means it's a good wagon.

[WINfried]

cool stuff lap, didn't read, vote frogs.

[WINfried]

fferyllt if town-fferyllt is really in there i expect a good hard think (and a frogs vote. thanks.)

[WINfried]

Worst case you are just another mislim, best case we elim scum and get good info on meg (in my book get them cleared), super best case you are actual mafia roleblocker and we might even get meg become a functional cop again.

[WINfried]

Best thing I can do here for not-lying Meg so I'll roll with it.

[WINfried]

And there is literally only one townping I received on you since the entire game.

[WINfried]

last post was directed at frogs

[WINfried]

fferyllt if town-fferyllt is really in there i expect a good hard think (and a frogs vote. thanks.)

I'm not looking forward to a day 2 star wars cantina band.

who makes sense as a partner to you?

Not so sure about that. I don't think there will be enough time for an entire reread of relations to other players.

[WINfried]

To sum this up: Going on a leap of faith here regarding Meg and following their lead with the frogs wagon. If that doesn't happen I'm probably going back on the fferyllt wagon, maybe unless T3 pops up and solves the game.

[WINfried]

VOTE: fferyllt

[WINfried]

Options:

A) meg is honest-town, NK15 is lying-scum: game is actually solved, scum-NK15 had no reason to play like this if fferyllt wasnt his partner, he could have just happily sit there and chill. voting meg would win us the game.

B) meg is lying-scum, NK15 is honest-town: Meg is the correct vote here, fferyllts alignment isnt confirmed on way or the other.

C) meg is honest-town, NK15 is honest-town: impossible

D) meg is honest-town, NK15 is lying-town: in this case NK15 screwed the game as that probably means 2 dead townies and no solution are approaching here.

E) meg is lying-scum, NK15 is lying-town: I guess that is still pretty good even though a very selfish move.


I feel like NK15 is forcing our hands here now. Voting NK15 makes no sense as if NK15 truely is scum, the game is solved as only what Megs theorized makes sense to me.

Am I wrong somewhere? Miss anything?

[WINfried]

What concerns me for meg-town is that he seems concerned about who goes down first. Why? Their solve is complete.

Meg: So fferyllt being town is an option to you now? Didn't look like that in 882 and 883.

[WINfried]

It is a consideration I have to make

> It is a consideration I have to make

You can make that consideration but I don't think I will. Scum-nk15 going of the rocker like that makes no sense at all if fferyllt is town. He would have just outed himself completely unprovoked in that case. Pretty sure you are scum, and that is even if NK-15 is full of lies.

[WINfried]

Winfried then vote ffery and that flip solves the game one way or another

No it does not because it does not tell us who your scumbuddy is.

[WINfried]

UNVOTE:
I still have time to think about this.

[WINfried]

VOTE: MegAzumarill

if they flip town, NK15 and fferyllt can go down next and we win the game.
If they flip scum, we can solve the game with fferyllt still around which might give us some valuable input.

Eliminating fferyllt right now is motivated in scum looking for a consolation prize, which doesn't mean a townie can't be advertising the same thing. But not a big surprise that Meg is.

[WINfried]

I don't often think my own miselim will improve a game state, but I'm on team elim-ffery.

Im doubt I think eliminating someone who isn't you, nk15, or meg is still better than eliminating you. At this point you are just unlikely to be scum, seeing that meg is very likely to be scum.

[WINfried]

In doubt*

[WINfried]

Or no no, right!! Apologies again, of course Not Known has a vote here too. @_@ E-1

I see we are sticking to our ways.

[WINfried]

I was here.

[WINfried]

[WINfried]

I sincerely apologize for having to leave

That is fine, we all have to leave games sometimes. It was good you did it promptly and didn't let your slot idle for days before like most others, which was really bad.

[WINfried]

WINfried

I thought you also made yourself incredibly town by play on Day 1. My main feedback to you is that even if you are certain a player is scum, it usually pays to interact with them to some extent. If you're right that they are scum, you may lull them into dropping some associatives with their scumbuddy that can be figured out later. And, if you're wrong, you give them a chance to show you that you are. Late day 3, when you finally let me into the reads and analysis discussion, it helped me a lot in terms of being able to think objectively about what was going on in the game, even though it didn't change your mind about my alignment.

Ya, sorry about that. I do that too much. Guess I was too worried about getting entangled in traps and helping you plan nightkills and rolefish. But I still agree with you, 100%.