Newbie 2109: Taco Hemingway | Game Over

[AurorusVox]

VOTE: Weuler

My lemon is tingling to get back to this game after years away!

[AurorusVox]

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery

VOTE: CCG

[AurorusVox]

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery.

I tried to contribute to starting the conversation, brother. What Dionysus did was respond to filler, when there was actual game content he could respond to.

While yes, I didn't vote, the NV was also an attempt at prompting people to speak up. Get them involved. Speaking up against what usually defies convention.

Also istg,

if a genuine but stupid mistake leads me to becoming the lim for today, I'll literally riot

... that is exactly what had happened my last town game asw.
The "not E-2" mistake was a genuine mistake. Not sure how to make it more believable, but yeah. I changed my stance to "doesn’t matter it’s E-2", because:
1. I want a reaction out of the Dionysus slot before changing my vote and
2. It really doesn't matter it's E-2 in a D1 2-scum scenario. And 2 of those votes are RVS votes. I really want to repeat what I said in #28.

Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.

First bolded point I don’t really buy. Its the explicit no vote tagging of it that doesn’t sit well. You were already no voting. It’s like drawing attention to you doing stuff, without actually having to commit to a vote. (I do understand your point that you were doing more game relevant stuff in the content of your post)

And then ironically when you do commit to the vote you get called out on it anyway. I mean, I can believe there’s a genuine mistake there (not realising it’s E-2) but if you have this whole theory behind the relevance/importance of the E numbers then I’d have expected some of that thought process would have manifested itself in some way in your initial response.

I’m not sure I like the (faux?) outrage in the second bolded part. I’m trying to ascertain whether I think this is scum being pissed off for something they don’t think is a scumtell. I also don’t think it’s fair to characterise the votes on you as being for “the mistake” as much as the other things around it.

However, there’s also this which caught my eye in a big way:

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

What is particularly awful about my response? Having someone E-2 so quickly is advantageous to scum.

Hey Dio, I put CCG at E-2 quickly. Why haven’t you come at me?

Nope! It's not! Not withdrawing your vote after everyone knows it is E-1 isn't rushing an elimination.
And then knowing that CCGeek is at E-2(CCGeek personally said it's E-2) puts them at E-1 without saying E-1?
Then realizes the mistake and unvotes?
And that's town?
Nope. Normally, town is generally less self-aware. Here, however... doing the exact same thing you criticize? In the exact same post? Town believes in what they say. Scum doesn't, and is actually much more likely to make a thought mistake like that and then to realize what they have done.

I like this part of the post a lot. It points out this feeling that Dio is behaving in a way that is conscious of how he will be perceived by town for his actions - perhaps moreso than trying to use his voice and vote to pressure and find scum. If you believe CCG is scum and want to expose him, then why retract a vote but keep the FOS there…it’s just so much less potent.

I don’t believe CCG and Dio are a scum pair, and of the two, I find CCG slightly more credible than Dio.

VOTE: Dio

———

Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery

This seems misinformative to me.
The "it's not E-2" is not what was said, it was CCG typing one thing and then after getting called out on it admitting his mistake.
The "oh it doesn't matter it's E-2" was not his excuse either with the actual quote being

Also IMHO, E-2 isn't really "bad" on page 1 of Day 1, and in fact, the person's reaction as well as the future development on the wagon outside RVS may provide an interesting point to analyze later in the game.

With that said, I'd prefer to not retract my vote for now, this discussion has the potential to evolve further.

Although I can understand how Aurorus might come to to these conclusions, I will be voting them. VOTE: Aurorus

Also the fact that my first vote got taken seriously I find is a little funny.

I’m not sure if my response to CCG will help clarify the thinking. I do also think it’s fair to say that those were the general vibes if not the exact words that CCG used.

Do you have any view on CCG’s original choice to no vote, as that was the primary thing in my original vote, which you have not touched on here.

———

If I was forced to vote right now, I'd vote Fredrick A Campbell.

I'm not seeing the Town read on Space.

CCG's faux pas looks NAI and irrelevant to me.

Why are NK and CC related?

I have a different scum read. I'm not willing to discuss the whys and wherefores yet. Ill address it soon though.

I'll be around for a while.

many p-edits Catching up.

Don’t like this first line. Why not vote him anyway? It’s not a limited resource. As town our vote is our power. As scum, each vote is a calculated risk. This seems more on the calculated side.

[AurorusVox]

I’ve just looked back at the vote count and seen that WS is voting Frederick already.
So…Why did you phrase it like that “If I was forced to vote” if you’re already voting him?

[AurorusVox]

Frederick has been in the background for me as I was focusing my attention on CCG/Dio, but I figured I’d get around to ISOing him at some point. With the attention he’s getting, I’ve done that now. There isn’t a great deal there. Spoiler alert: it’s a little fishy.

The reason he wasn’t immediately on my radar (I had a initial slight town lean) was because I thought this post:

Spoiler: post 28 by CCGeek

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate, brother. Dionysus is at E-3.

Not Known 15, Space and CCGeek are voting Dionysus, putting Dionysus at E-2.
VOTE: CCGeek
I don't believe what I quoted was an innocent mistake.

Well, it

was

a genuine mistake on my part. Not Known's vote skipped my mind when I made that post, as well as earlier when I put the vote on him. However, it really doesn't change much. It was the only "non-random" vote at that point available to me. With all the fluff that was being thrown around, I figured I might as well start a proper discussion. And, hey, it succeeded in a way.

Also IMHO, E-2 isn't really "bad" on page 1 of Day 1, and in fact, the person's reaction as well as the future development on the wagon outside RVS may provide an interesting point to analyze later in the game.

With that said, I'd prefer to not retract my vote for now, this discussion has the potential to evolve further.

CCGeek said his saying it was E-3 was a genuine mistake. In the same paragraph, he said he was trying to spark discussion (presumably by saying it was E-3 when it was E-2).

…was actually quite a good post that aligned with my feelings towards CCG at the time, if not directly with the content of my suspicions. There

was

something off with those posts from CCG.

(As an important side note: I also don’t buy Dio’s recent post where he claims Frederick was “pushing this narrative hard” as the above is pretty much the biggest push Frederick makes. Apparently this was enough to “sweep Dio up” in this desire to vote CCG. This is scum trying to shield themselves by assigning the reasons for their actions to other players)

The more glaring issues with Frederick here would be the lack of explanation for reads. Buuut would scum not just make something up? Unless it’s a case of not thinking it through and therefore having nothing to build on / forgetting because you never had those reads in the first place. It wouldn’t be very good play but both town and scum can play poorly so it shouldn’t be ruled out, it’s just not enough to pull me off the Dio vote as it stands (Dio being my strongest scum read which was reinforced further in his latest post)

Where I’m more in agreement is with Weuler’s latest posts (how is this guy not on more people’s town read lists btw?) where he pushes Frederick’s reasoning. The logic doesn’t make sense at all. If Frederick is acting suspiciously (purposefully?) then of course scum will want to jump on that wagon.

Frederick: were you purposefully trying to look suspect or have you realised it was suspect afterwards? In either case, can you explain why scum wouldn’t want to vote you for your behaviour?

[AurorusVox]

If I'm getting this correctly, I believe Campbell's logic rn is something along the lines of: Scum wants to leave a "scummy" person alive till D2 for a better push. It's a rather interesting approach to a newbie game.

I would much prefer you to let Frederick answer for himself rather than putting words in his mouth CCG.

———

I’m not a fan on the way Frederick is playing things out here. It’s anti town at the very least and could signal flaily scum. I find it strange that he is saying scum won’t be pushing him but then scum reads one person who has voted him and another who has been questioning him…

In fact on the scum not pushing him angle, it feels like everyone in the thread has now expressed suspicion of Frederick (except the replacement slot by virtue of not being here). From town!Fred’s view, at least one scum must be pushing him, but he hasn’t considered that angle at all. That’s the biggest red flag to me in the whole scenario.

I’m also conscious that a theoretical scum!Fred would either have to be partnered with Froggy-slot or is being bussed thanks to the fact everyone seems to be on his case. We should wait for the replacement to post either way; but I note with interest the fact of Dio voting and saying he would unvote if it got to E-1.

———

@Dio: why have you ignored everything I have said about you?

Also: what acronyms are you wanting to know? Have you checked the wiki?

[AurorusVox]

Mainly why you avoided answering my question in #68: why me putting CCG at E-2 quickly wasn’t worthy of your suspicion but CCG doing it (potentially accidentally) was? And there was a further point in there about why you are so hesitant to use your vote with any conviction (you’ve continued this with the declaration you’d unvote Frederick if he reached E-1)

P-edit = preview edit: when you edit your post after you initially submit, after seeing new posts which come up in the preview step.

[AurorusVox]

I like KingTroll’s entrance for the Wayward Son suspicion. I never really got a satisfactory answer from WS regarding his wooliness around the Frederick vote. Actually I can see why FAC would say WS hasn’t sufficiently pushed him (here’s a thought: this could be a possible bus/distancing in both directions, and actually the more I think about it the more this scenario plays out and makes sense)

However I’m not sure how I feel about KT’s view regarding Frederick. How can you distinguish between anti-town bad play as Town vs anti-town bad play as Scum? That’s the question mark that is hovering over FAC for me and I’m not sure how you can be that confident that it’s one or the other.

Frederick what is your read on KingTroll?

———

I feel like my Dio vote is outdated. I don’t mind his interactions with FAC or KT on this page or so. Not a townread but the fact he has not unvoted does make me question the strength of my scumread.

I’m not averse to hammering on Frederick but I’d like to see more from Space and CCG before that point. I note Space’s recent post, and we definitely need to see more there.

In the meantime: VOTE: Wayward Son

[AurorusVox]

The game feels like it’s stagnating a little at the moment. I think we need to inject a little something, and I think the best thing for that is to start to buckle down and sort todays elimination.

In my mind there are 3-4 scenarios I’m currently working from:

(1) Fred and WS are a scum pair bussing/distancing from each other. WS has voted but not really pressured Fred; Fred has scumread WS but not voted him. Either wagon is a good choice in this scenario.

(2) Fred and KT are a scum pair, with KT defending his scum buddy by starting an alternative wagon. Fred flipping scum would paint a bit of a target on KT’s back which could be why he’s now fully committed to defending him. Obviously in this scenario Fred is the wagon of choice.

(3) Fred is town…

(a) …and KT is scum, who is playing like he knows Fred is town. He could be defending the townie that looks like he’s getting limmed for town credit. The WS vote would likely be distraction (why pull the wagon off a mislim and onto your buddy?) and so in this scenario neither wagon is good.

(b) …and KT is town; in this case WS wagon has a lot of value. Like others though, I’m finding it a little hard to reconcile KT’s certainty that Fred is town with a town mindset. This scenario would be the least likely in my opinion.

Given all of that, and given the state of the game, I’m declaring an intent to hammer Fred in the next 24-48 hours.

Fred, please claim and give your final reads.

[AurorusVox]

It’s a good question. The scenarios I mentioned were the new thoughts I’ve had, whereas the Dio suspicion is like a holdover from earlier in the thread. I’m not saying I have a townread on Dio now, BUT they have moved down the pecking order of my suspicion. I can still see Dio being scum with Fred in theory, but the fact they didn’t unvote when they gave themselves that option for a way off the wagon gives me pause (balanced against this is the fact they had been pressured around this originally-stated intent). I think the likelier scum partner for Fred would be WS, and if not, then there’s a question over who would be a likelier partner out of KT and Dio.

Scum reads

Fred/WS
KT/Dio
CCG/Space
NK15/Weuler

Town reads

@Weuler, sure - not the likeliest scenario, but then you get into WIFOM territory. “Why would I make it so obvious?” as a way to try to defend himself.

[AurorusVox]

Fred can you give your final reads list please.

@KT, agreed we need to see more from those slots, but if deadline is looming the elimination takes priority. Now that Fred has claimed we can give it a little longer before hammering but I’m not letting us end the day with a no-lim.

By the way, I want clarify that I’m not basing my read on you entirely off of your relation to Fred - I’m giving you some towncred for your WS suspicions and your attempt to actually get things happening in the game against no small amount of apathy that seems to have set in here. I’m not writing you off as scum yet (you and Dio are in my “suspicion” slot rather than my scumread slot in my readlist). However the fred flip is an important part of my thoughts towards you: even though I included two scenarios for Scum!Fred, such a flip would make me more suspicious of Wayward Son than you, for example (as Weuler pointed out - scenario 2 is less likely than scenario 1); whereas town!fred would make me really question your behaviour around the wagon.

I should equally clarify CCG and Space are null reads at the moment with CCG the more suspect of the two. I want to ensure that’s all nice and clear in case I don’t make it through the night!

[AurorusVox]

VOTE: Unvote

Putting WS at E-1 in this situation with Frederick not having voted is reckless.
My CCG suspicions have increased.

The following is edited in for votecounter purposes: ~Koba

UNVOTE:

[AurorusVox]

I’m also available to hammer Frederick later today. The reason for waiting was to let him claim/give final reads and to get a post from CCG/WS. I think there’s been value in allowing CCG to post at the very least, because my read on him has altered as a result of his reckless vote. It seems at odds with how considered his other posting has been. This could just be a newbie mistake but it’s pinged for me in a way that has moved him out of null.

@CCG, the rest of your post (as I say above) seems like your other considered posting. But the first part is kinda theory-based (and you miss the obvious problem re: your decision to end with a WS vote); the KT-Dio stuff is interesting but you ultimately call it null; I also townread both NK15 and Weuler so I’m not sure what distinction you’re trying to draw between them? You said “he” needs to produce more content - who did you mean? I think both have provided a decent quality of content even if it’s not been of the same quantity.

———

I will wait and see what WS posts and then it sounds like either myself or Space are ready to drop the hammer.

Scumread: Fred/WS
Suspicious: KT/Dio/CCG (moved from his latest post)
Null: no one anymore!
Leaning town: Space (moved from his latest post)
Townread: Weuler/NK15

[AurorusVox]

We’ve given WS enough chances to post but they seem to be MIA. The pressure on that slot should be picked up tomorrow. At this stage we just need to get the Fred lim done.

So: I’m about to drive home. I’ll put my babies to bed, eat my tea, and then I’ll be looking to drop the hammer (probably in about 3 hours).

If anyone has anything else they want to say, please do so before then.

[AurorusVox]

LLD! What a blast from the past!

Please can you give me a read on WS?

I was about to ask you to reconcile your paired read with the NK post where he asked me to consider Fred-Dio. But then I realised they -if- your slot is town, then that’s an easy suspicion to then later dismiss (because the pair can no longer be true). Personally though, NK is my second strongest townread, so I won’t be voting them today.

Pedit: NK pushed me when it looked like I’d dropped my Dio suspicion. I don’t think they’ve let Dio slide by.

———

My primary concern is that we end up with no consensus and no elimination; there isn’t a great deal of time to organise another wagon. My secondary issue here is that if anyone is capable of turning a scumread into a townread - regardless of alignment - I think you’d be a good shout for it. I mean, I’m already feeling like not voting for you! My tertiary concern would be running up another claim and risking outing a PR and we eliminate Fred slot anyway.

@Dio, it’s not about no one wanting to eliminate Fred at the moment, it’s about giving people time to post their final reads. With the risk of being night killed, I need to make sure I’m contributing as much as I can at the end of the day to support town going forward. LLD is here to post content and whether that slot is eliminated or not, we get valuable information from seeing what they have to say.

———

Weuler, to be clear, have you unvoted because you believe them to be town, or because you were worried about someone hammering before LLD could post their views?

[AurorusVox]

@LLD I think it’s disingenuous to suggest that a Fred-slot elimination is one that offers “little info gained.” My biggest question is why Fred never voted WS when he expressed suspicions of them. For a long time, WS was at E-2 and they never voted for them. KT is also somewhat tied to your slot (that’s a little harder to parse). But I do think the elimination gives info on those two in particular.

Actually, I’d love a read on KT too when you are back.

@NK @weuler: how do both of you feel about LLD’s push on Dio?

[AurorusVox]

Okay. So: reasons I have found Fred suspect:

(1) Saying townies would be suspicious of him

while simultaneously

saying he scumreads someone voting for him and someone who is suspicious of him (= inconsistencies of reads, potentially because they’re fabricated)
(2) Saying he is suspicious of WS but never voting for him (= possible bus/distancing)
(3) Saying scum would not be suspicious of him when literally everyone but one person, who had yet to post in-game, had expressed their suspicion of him (= clearly untrue if Fred is town)
(4) Saying he acted purposefully scummy as an excuse for his behaviour when questioned (= perhaps he had no other, ie “town,” excuse for those behaviours)

I’ve looked at your explanations on potential reasons for the flip flopping. I don’t think that reasoning applies to everything here.

———

I will go back and reread Dio tomorrow. I have been wrestling with it for a while and I think I get the point you make about mass claim equity vs town mis-lim equity - essentially that even doing a mass claim is less detrimental to town than an elimination on town day 1?

Does that still hold true for just 2x claims? And is this just anecdotal or based on statistics and town win %s?

[AurorusVox]

Hello Fenrir! Please can you give me a read on Fred/LLD slot at your earliest convenience.

Mainly why you avoided answering my question in #68: why me putting CCG at E-2 quickly wasn’t worthy of your suspicion but CCG doing it (potentially accidentally) was? And there was a further point in there about why you are so hesitant to use your vote with any conviction (you’ve continued this with the declaration you’d unvote Frederick if he reached E-1)

P-edit = preview edit: when you edit your post after you initially submit, after seeing new posts which come up in the preview step.

I answered this already in #59. CCG did it off the back of fluff. CCG being at E-2 later on wasn't off the back of fluff. Same for Campbell now.

And I think don't know how else to explain my hesitance beyond what I have said: I don't want scum to hammer a townie. But if you want some clarity I won't be lifting my vote from Campbell unless something big changes as the day progresses.

The consensus is forming that his behaviour is flailing scum, a read I share and I would be comfortable with him being hammered.

So I’ve just isod myself and Dio. On a re-read the only thing that really stands out apart from the other things I’ve already mentioned about Dio before is here in this post.

Reasons for finding Dio suspect:

(1) The inconsistency with people “rushing” eliminations - I think he answered this okay tbh, so I’d retract the reasoning for my initial ping
(2) The self-awareness around his own votes for CCG (NK summed this up well) = conscious of how he is perceived for his votes more than trying to use his vote to effectively scumhunt
(3) Blaming Fred for pushing a CCG narrative combined with the bolded above where he latched onto the “consensus” (= hiding behind others for his reads and suspicions)
(4) Needing prompting to respond to accusations directed at him (= hoping to ignore it so it goes away because he doesn’t have any reasonable, ie “town”, explanations)

@LLD - what makes Dio’s interactions with you worse than NK’s?

[AurorusVox]

Yo we have like 30 hours before deadline.

@CCG why are you providing so little content in your last few posts?

[AurorusVox]

Woah nelly. Seems like my post has touched a nerve.

I’ll break point 3 down into its two constituent parts: firstly, you said you were convinced to vote for CCG based on Fred pushing a narrative hard, but when I showed you Fred’s post, there was nothing that would fit that description. As for the Fred vote - it’s the way you phrased it. Why not just say “He appears to me to be flailing scum” rather than there’s a town consensus that you agree with? Hiding might not be the right word for the Fred vote given you were already voting them - I’ll accept that - but it definitely fits for the CCG one; and there’s a similar vibe (even if not an exact parallel) from the post I quoted.

As for the E-1, they are two totally different scenarios. One was early to mid game where a hammer would make someone obvScum. The CCG vote put someone at E-1

whilst someone else who had not voted for that person was themselves at E-1 with declared intent to hammer

. In this case, scum!fred who thinks they’re going to be eliminated either way takes the pot-shot and eliminates WS before they can claim. If you’re already going to be eliminated, being made obvScum makes no difference. The two scenarios are not comparable and I’m surprised you would try to say that they are.

Are you sincere town who is as wound up as you appear in your post at having to defend the same accusations yet again? Or are you frustrated scum who thought they’d gotten by today after the initial suspicion on you faded?

I have been wrestling between head and heart today (head says stick with LLD elimination; heart says don’t), and this little exchange may just have been the chair to the face while the referee’s back was turned I needed to decide an otherwise even match - having to defend those points has only made me believe in their validity more firmly. I’m willing to see where this goes.

VOTE: Dio

[AurorusVox]

There’s a lot here and I only have access on my phone so I’m not going to go through quoting all the relevant posts, and I’ll respond to what I think is most pertinent in the interest of time.

@Dio, your blue point signposting me to I think post 102 was fair enough, and I retract the accusation around the wording of consensus. You hadn’t said flailing before but the wording of that original post could definitely be construed to mean flailing. However, I don’t think you’ve responded particularly well to the pressure of the suspicions, vote or wagon. Every time I’m willing to give you some towncred for a defence of things you’ve said, you do something else to make me doubt you again. The closest example to mind is how you said something about LLD being embarrassed if she were town and how you’d like to see it - that really didn’t sit well for me.

@LLD, you are still maintaining that there are no clear explanations for Fred scumreads but I pointed out four reasons in a post you seem to have ignored. I don’t expect you to “know” why Fred did what he did but I think it’s wrong to suggest that he didn’t act suspiciously in a number of different ways. I also think you’re missing the fact that KT is playing like they know you’re town - which from your possible “town” pov would be fine and dandy but from an outside view, it looks a little dodgy. I actually think the way you read KT is a point in your favour for being town though.

@STD, I said it because CCG said they were catching up, a lot had happened since their last post, and they took the time to post “same” rather than like anything of any meaningful content, which with the time crunch we’re in seemed off to me. My post was like what, 9 hours after they said they were catching up, and there was still nothing posted. I didn’t/won’t pursue that angle any further though because after stepping away from the thread and the pressure of the deadline countdown, I realised that (obviously) real life can get in the way. Sorry @CCG for pushing you on that front actually.

With intent to hammer declared, Dio should give a claim and final reads.

[AurorusVox]

I won’t be voting Weuler today.

[AurorusVox]

why not

I read them as town and I’m not second guessing myself on townreads I’ve had all day this close to deadline. Some posts that I think are good:
#40/#53 - good questions
#84/#91 - good probing
Reasoning builds naturally across a number of posts to a vote in #119

Caveat: There has been less from them recently so I do think they may be getting a bit of a pass for early game content from me. But then there was a lot of apathy in the last few days so I don’t think the shift in posting frequency is alignment indicative. Therefore the townread stays in place.

———

@KT, if LLD is town then I’m coming round to the idea that you’d have had no real motivation to draw the wagon away from a town mis-elimination. There are plenty of points and counterpoints and wifom points I’ve considered here, but I think going forward I’m going to try to read you -not- in relation to the LLD slot.

That said, if LLD is town and STD is scum

then

you can be pretty much confTown at that point.

———

I note Dio’s last will and testament. Filing it away to look at based on the flip.

[AurorusVox]

A FN claim helps in terms of giving us a confTown for a day (they’ll die tonight as it confirms no protection roles) - the question is whether we want that info NOW or potentially save it in the back pocket for later (and keep the potential for a doctor/jk around). I think this is something we can decide as the day progresses and we don’t necessarily need to decide right away.

Re: why we would need to know dr vs jk
I want to question the logic here. A jailed target did not commit a kill (probably - see *) which is helpful to know but this doesn’t mean the target is not mafia. The kill went through so JK has less to tell us (*plus they themselves could have been role-blocked).

Plus if maf have a roleblocker then the only role they can block now is the JK, so finding out which column we’re in doesn’t carry much of a reward (and the confTown JK would just be killed). I’d argue the JK being outed *is* helpful when there’s only 1x mafia on the other side so that we can tell who is getting blocked before going into the night phase and almost use it as a secondary town power beyond the elimination.

———

I like weuler’s entrance to the day.

I’ll have to go back and take a look at the timing and reasons for the Dio votes when I get a chance because it’s likely* there is at least one scum on the wagon. I don’t think Dio helped himself with his response to the pressure though, which is going to make it harder to parse.

(*I am open to the possibility of an STD/weuler team with STD’s “doomed-to-fail” late push on weuler being distancing, but I don’t find it super likely at the moment)

@LLD was there a reason you waited for me to place my vote on Dio before voting him yourself? Particularly following this post:

Also AV, then where are the Dio votes?

If you NK and I are all suspicious of Dio, why not create a Dio wagon?

I admit that NK's response to my push is much more town than Dio's was. It's my preference to kill Dio today now anyway.

If I'm scum, from NK's perspective I would be bussing right?

So hop aboard my bus and let's build that wagon.

[AurorusVox]

@LLD What “false info” would we gain from JK proxy claims at this stage? I like the proxy method but not sure what it’ll tell us, since the kill went through and even if the JK hit mafia we wouldn’t be able to distinguish that from town at this point based on the JK alone?

Pedit: but you’re saying who would target who, at least 6/7 proxy claims would be fake anyway??

This is my only thing: does the maths work out that someone who’s JK’d is less likely scum (1/7 slot chance ie the non killing scum vs 2/7 slot chance at being either killing or non-killing scum)? So if an eventual JK flip occurs we can look back and see how it fits with other peoples reads on that slot?

You also ignored my question about the timing of your vote. I’d like an answer to that.

———

@NK15 what was that vote / unvote about?

———

Also the value in the FN/IC doesn’t even need to come from them leading town - it also comes from limiting the possible candidates for elimination.

Pedit: LLD argues similar above about FN claim. Good if they’re good, good if they’re bad.

I don’t see the value in JK claiming (proxy claiming is better if we go down that route), I think doc should stay hidden and try for a protect tonight, and FN I think depends on how the day is panning out? Like if they’re in trouble / things might be going their way without claiming anyway?

[AurorusVox]

Weuler what’s your read on CCG?

NK/LLD do you have any non-mechanics things you’d like to pick up on? Do either of you think the mechanics talk is alignment indicative at this stage?

———

Just to try to put the mechanics stuff to bed asap and as clearly as possible, can anyone who has any view on claims complete the following for your opinion:

Doc: claim / don’t claim
JK: claim / don’t claim / claim by proxy*
FN: claim / don’t claim / wait and see**

*LLD’s idea of each person saying who they “jailed”

**by which I mean, if the FN is already happy with how the day is developing, claiming may not be necessary

Eg for me -

Doc: don’t claim
JK: claim by proxy
FN: wait and see

[AurorusVox]

In what way??

[AurorusVox]

Like I’m actually asking. If FN is already leading town, what do we gain by hearing their claim straight away? Is there not value in trying to keep them under the radar until D3 if possible?

I get your point about there being a low chance of that happening. But isn’t a low chance better than zero chance (if they claim today they definitely die tonight right?)

So say the FN wants X eliminated. And they manage to get a good wagon going on X. Why would they need to claim in this situation and *guarantee* we lose their confTown slot tomorrow? We also may have their target from last night helping out following their lead anyway.

Compared to them possibly surviving, claiming tomorrow and giving us a 2/3 shot from town pov even if we mislim today.

Obviously if the FN is being wagonned, or strongly disagrees with the wagon, they could claim today to help guide us towards a different lim. That’s what I mean by wait and see.

And there’s also the possibility that we don’t actually have a FN so scum won’t know anyway (especially if we combine with JK proxy claim)

If I’m wrong I’m happy to be corrected, but just telling me I’m wrong without explaining why isn’t going to help.

[AurorusVox]

Hi Arko, thanks for posting your reads list so quickly. I’ll address your read on me to see if I can land either side of the toss up.

Aurora

- And this is one is completely a toss up. Post 262 Exists, A massive scumread post on a now dead townie that also lines up with someone lower down the list. Other posts of this exist. Besides these posts, also a less active poster, most posts just being asking people for their reads. Despite going along with the reads of them, they've had at once or twice, Distant or Antagonistic interaction with them, even between the same reads and probably, goals.

My post 262 should be read in context of 246, where I was giving reasons to find the Fred/LLD slot suspect (since LLD kept insisting no one had given any reasons for this read). As Dio was the alternative elimination being touted for the day, I wanted to do the same thing to help decide which way to go. You’ll note that I didn’t actually vote Dio until their reply which was not good - aggressive, defensive, overly sensitive even? I don’t think reading a town slot as scum *before they’ve flipped* is a scumtell - four other people agreed he was the best elimination and not all of those people provided as comprehensive reasoning (which can later be analysed) as I did. In terms of scum on the wagon, the ones who quietly slip on when they see the way the wind is blowing is where my suspicions lie.

Less active maybe (I have 18 month year old twins and let me be clear that I will not be committing more time than I already am to the game) but I’d say I’m providing a hell of a lot more content when I do post that other slots who have posted more numerically. Every time the game stagnates, I am one of the first people to try to get it back up on its feet. Even today, when we have basically just chatted shit about mechanics so far, I’ve been trying to get people onto actual non-mechanics stuff. And yes, that might involve asking people for reads on slots because that’s a great way to catch scum out - inconsistencies, possible pairs, and also with the number of new players who have joined us sometimes those slots’ reads lists need updating as result.

I’m not sure what the last part means. I think you’re linking me to LLD?

[AurorusVox]

Sorry guys I’ve been really busy the last few days. Obviously that’s when things pop off here!

I’ve not got long so here’s a very quick rundown of where I’m at:

- I think LLD is probably town (and I think Arko is too)
- I like weulers approach, but I think the logic is flawed - *if* LLD is scum I think std makes a good partner (look back at Fred/WS interactions)
- I think poe for me now puts the scum team as NK/STD
- I would rather go STD today but would go NK if there’s no chance of an STD lim now
- I am paranoid about other possibilities but I’m going to try to Occam’s razor it and go with my primary reads (if I get time later I can go into my alternative theories)

VOTE: STD

[AurorusVox]

@STD your predecessor was very weak on his Fred push; there was a weird thing around them not acknowledging their vote and then pretending it was on purpose?? It didn’t add up. They also never really gave concrete reads on anyone.

You had that weird weuler vote at the end of the day when it was clear that wagon was going nowhere.

You haven’t really engaged today apart from saying you don’t get mechanics.

You’ve said you’d probably vote for NK but haven’t really done anything around explaining why that is or presenting a case.

Also we have all been so obsessed with the KT LLD kill wifom that it’s easy to forget that KT scumread you in a major way.

You also fit with pretty much any scum slot better than anyone else (see below)

———

Justification for other reads:

(1) LLD town
Although you can get into wifom arguments, I do think on balance the KT kill wouldn’t make sense for an LLD scumteam. Her interactions around no longer pushing arko and reading them as town doesn’t seem scum motivated. In particular her narrowing down to NK15 mirrors my own narrowing to STD and comes from a town pov imo. There are still concerns mainly from Fred’s time in the slot (see my previous statements to that effect) but I’m probably about 60:40 on this one.

(2) weuler town
As I said in my previous post I like weulers approach today (he’s been trying to scumhunt from the start imo and been very open with his reads and reasonings). I also previously presented why I read him as town yesterday. I am probably more paranoid about weuler than anyone else because if weuler is scum (esp if they’re scum with arko) I think we’ve already lost; however I feel quite confident that I’m right about them being town. Particularly his response to my challenge of his logic shows a willingness to reconsider which I don’t think scum would want to do at this point (I’d expect them to want to forge ahead with their mislim targets regardless).

(3) Arko town
this one is based on the way he handled the FN and attacked LLD; I think scum!arko could/would have been more subtle if LLD is town, and if LLD is scum I just don’t see arko going that hard on a partner. The tunnelling is quite townie because even though it put him at risk he kept going: I feel like scum!arko would have made sure he had the LLD wagon support before going nuclear on her. I have to admit to being a little frustrated with a town!arko because I do feel like they’re judging me based on my number or posts rather than content - I’d argue despite my lack of numerical posting, I’ve provided a lot of content and plenty of reads, not just piggybacked off of others.

(4) NK15 scum
ironically based on what I’ve literally just said, I am going to piggyback a little here because a number of people have summed up the concerns around NK succinctly in the last page or so. My townread on them has diminished over the course of the day as other townreads have surpassed them. Plus there was a weird thing where they wanted a doctor to claim I think? And that vote/unvote on LLD earlier today. The main thing that stands out though that others have picked up on: NK said they were suspicious of Dio yesterday but had to be convinced to hammer them. Was this because they knew the slot was town? It was a remarkable turnaround from not wanting to vote them to doing it, and stands out as odd.

HOWEVER, fmpov STD is still the safest vote and the one most likely to hit scum due to the slots interactions with others and the pairs it fits into. Especially when I consider my paranoia reads below…

———

Paranoia reads - these are me second guessing my reads and looking at what the outcome might be. I warn you that I can be an overthinker, but for the record: I don’t think these are the case. Still, I think it’s helpful to consider the possibility that one might be wrong…

(1) weuler scum
weuler said something about lim NK today and LLD is still around to lim tomorrow; if both NK and LLD are town then obviously this gives the win to scum. He’s also paired one of NK/Arko as scum which could be the same outcome with chained lims. In this case, I’d still want to lim STD first as he’d be the only partner for weuler assuming NK/LLD/Arko are all being set up as mislims (one of LLD/Arko *could* be a partner as he’d only need 2 mislims to win). This also correlates with STD’s weird “no hope” attempt at setting up a wagon on weuler yesterday

(2) arko scum
Play against LLD was too aggressive to be partners imo. By the logic above I don’t think arko partners weuler (although it is more likely than weuler-LLD). Could scum!arko have switched to scum!NK because he sees there are enough votes to lim him whether he supports the wagon or not? Maybe, if this is the case it’s a fine outcome (scum is limmed anyway). But if it’s not NK and it’s not likely to be weuler then again who is left over as a partner to arko? STD.

(3) NK town
CCG’s iso wall is compelling, which may account for the seed of doubt I have: my problem is that pretty much everyone here is ready to lim NK. It reminds me of the Fred wagon in that way. I’m the only one proposing an alternative wagon (apart from NK himself obviously) and this gives me pause. Have scum already decided to bus? Or are scum pushing this wagon on a townie? The likelier option is #1 but it’s just a little seed that, again, makes me prefer STD over NK.

(4) LLD is scum
If LLD is scum it’s not with NK. My fear here would be that she sets up a mislim on NK and then pushes eg me/town!weuler tomorrow. She’s already kind of setting this up by saying the next scumpair she’d look at (if NK isn’t scum) would be me + weuler. Given the unlikelihood of a weuler+LLD scumteam from point (1) or an arko+LLD scumteam from point (2), again it leads me to conclude that STD would be the likeliest partner here.

(5) STD is town
I find it hard to believe but just for the sake of covering all bases. If STD were town then I’d be looking at arko with NK (possible bussing), or maaaaybe weuler+arko. If this second one is the team I think we’ve probably already lost tbh.

———

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

[AurorusVox]

@STD I don’t think it’s weird, I think you’re both scum but for the reasons I’ve stated, I’d prefer to lim you first.

@NK are you suggesting that Arko claimed the FN publicly so that he could kill CCG, and not be tied to the kill since the information was now public (and not privately known to just him)?

[AurorusVox]

@std Hardly the third degree, is it?

I also made the same point in my large post earlier. I squared that in my thinking as a combo of the wagon being supported by CCG, and the possible bussing coming from yourself (“I think I’ll vote him but let me see”) or in a world where you’re town, coming from arko (realising after LLD said she’d put NK at e-1 and you said you’d vote them that the elimination was happening whether he supported it or not)

I’m curious why the second option hasn’t occurred to you, since that’s the likely bus with town!STD

[AurorusVox]

@STD I don’t think it’s weird, I think you’re both scum but for the reasons I’ve stated, I’d prefer to lim you first.

@NK are you suggesting that Arko claimed the FN publicly so that he could kill CCG, and not be tied to the kill since the information was now public (and not privately known to just him)?

Part that, part not having to townread the FN for covert reasons(which made Arko more suspect). It is extra manipulation effort to do on top of being scum if that happens...
Let's face it, what would have happened if CCG died and Arko lied about having been visited by CCG, or not. Both would have put suspicions on Arko.

How would we have known he’d lied? CCG could have visited KT for all we knew. In the first case no one would have claimed the visit N1 anyway?

[AurorusVox]

My reasoning hasn’t really changed that much, I still feel that STD is the best choice. Obviously no need to rush it, but that’s where I’d be voting.

Arko, NK was with you on the LLD push, can you explain why you switched onto him?

[AurorusVox]

Sure. But we have today to figure that out too.

As I said yesterday I can see STD partnering any of you (and gave reasonings for each). That’s partly why I wanted him limmed yesterday, because I can’t exclude him from any possible pairings. In order of likelihood:

LLD
weuler
Arko

But it’s not differentiated by much, so that’s why I’d like to draw conclusions from today.

Would you vote him?

[AurorusVox]

I thought weuler had chained you and arko through saying one of you was scum if not nk, and originally said he didn’t see you and STD as the pair (until I raised the possibility)?

[AurorusVox]

(Which itself is pretty sketchy but doesn’t preclude a team with std)

[AurorusVox]

CCG or LLD? I seem to remember it being the latter. Will go back and check / see why I had that impression.

[AurorusVox]

Okay I was reading in reverse order so these quotes are going backwards:

Summed up thoughts: NK town, then take a look at std/lld pair.

NK scum: STD could be a potential partner. Perhaps also Arko? Just a thought.

@LLD - I see what you meant about linking you and STD to NK town now. I guess the chance that weuler is scum with STD would depend on who he pushes out of you or STD today. If you’re town and he’s scum with STD he only needs to push you today instead of STD and he’d win if successful…

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

Perhaps, I have admitted that STD has a sketchy ISO and he definitely should be the prime push D3. Not sure if we stop with the NK wagon though, evidence stacks up against him pretty significantly.

At this point it would surprise me if NK flips green.

If he does however, then I would start looking at the possible scum team STD/LLD. Unless Arko is scum then at that point this is the only reasonable scum team.

Same thing as quote above. Going backwards, it does look like weuler would be more likely to go after you (notice in the next few quotes he doesn’t mention STD but does mention you)

Or perhaps you think getting to scenario 3 is worth the risk? I wouldn't call that avoiding scenario 4 "like the plague" though. If NK15 gets limmed today, delta will remain tomorrow to lim (unless they are nightkilled which seems very unlikely with CCG around)

@weuler this is where you are pushing one of NK/LLD as a pair (obviously this is after CCG is removed due to his FN reveal from arko)

Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)

I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.

Yeah so I can see that initially you did focus on those three (CCG, NK, Arko) - but there’s definitely focus on NK/LLD as an exclusionary pair later on.

Oh great CCG is town. From my earlier posts yesterday that makes me quite certain that one of Arko and NK are scum.

Here you make the NK/arko determination (and LLD comes later)

———

@weuler do you believe it could be LLD+Arko or do you think STD is more likely to be a partner to either one of these two?

It’s really interesting reading this iso backwards how Arko seems to fade from the consideration (mentioned as a possible NK-scum partner but almost as a throwaway comment)

[AurorusVox]

First point: okay if that’s the clarification, it didn’t necessarily come across that way. It sounded to me that you were only really interested in going after LLD if NK flipped town (your scum partners for NK were STD/arko), and so you’d be saying “if not NK then LLD” and when you read back your post about LLD being around today, it makes it sound like you’d be pushing her (This could be as a result of me reading through the iso backwards though)

That’s what I meant by exclusionary pairs (“one of these two is scum”) and the idea that you’d go after LLD first.

You also earlier said one of NK/arko so I’m interested as to where the LLD/STD possibility fits into that? Because the two reads linked to NK seem to contradict what you said at the end of the day here:

Looking at Space's iso I don't see Arko slot being scum with LLD or STD.

———

Pedit: okay, I see, everything is up in the air and you can now see any combo or arko/STD/LLD.

Personally I don’t see arko/LLD

And based on your own end of day comments you don’t see arko with either LLD or STD - so is that no longer the case? What’s caused that change? That’s why I asked what I did - because you’re only really leaving yourself with pushing STD/LLD or me/arko with your end of day comments. And now it could be any two of those three? I’m trying to figure out if this is opportunistic/keeping options open, or a genuine change of heart based on the NK flip.

———

Funnily enough LLD this little exchange is making me revise whether you or weuler is the most likely partner for STD.

Factors for weuler-STD: std vote on weuler when it would never happen; weuler linking you and arko to an NK townflip, but linking std to an NK scumflip, and also pairing you as scum with std but putting more focus onto your slot

Factors for you-STD is mostly based on wayward son and Fred antics that I’ve gone over before

[AurorusVox]

I would never say I’m locked in to anything. If that were the case and I was that certain then I may as well have voted by now because if I’m wrong then I’d lose the game for town by voting for him eventually.

However, I have a strong preference for eliminating std today as I feel that STD-LLD and STD-weuler are *way* more likely than LLD-arko, and also more likely than LLD-weuler, STD-arko or arko-weuler.

———

The one that gives me cause for concern is arko-weuler. I think arko is probably town based on his interactions with you (though his interactions with NK were a little suspect), so this is not a super likely scenario imo, but it is the one that gives me the most paranoia.

I discounted this pair initially because of weuler’s NK/arko “one is scum” line (why would scum!weuler link his scum buddy to a town flip he’d have known was coming?) but as I said, it’s interesting to see that line of enquiry fade from weuler’s posts. Especially given what I said in my previous post - he’d have to see the pair as either LLD/STD or me/arko according to his end of day read. Now that he firmly townreads me, and given his previous statement, does that mean he townreads arko by association, and now has to go after you or std? If weuler is scum then this is a perfect opportunity to direct away from a hypothetical arko scumbuddy.

However, it seems that weuler is either forgetting or planning on revisiting his previous determination that arko doesn’t make a good partner for you or std, so it’s all a bit up in the air on that front. The scenario that he’s scum with STD can go partway to explaining that though: he’s keeping the opportunity open to go against town!arko while maintaining the possibility of going after town!LLD (I’d argue that it’s not as likely that you’re the weuler-partner here based on comments from weuler about your slot yesterday)

Either way I need to see where weuler puts pressure today, and THAT is why I’m not locked in.

More content in posts from STD would also help but not sure we’ll get much there tbh so I’m not holding out hope.

———

You also said that Arko was your one top townread. That sounds like you’re open to the possibility of scum!STD; but you’ve also discounted him as having no viable partner. Why could he not partner weuler?

[AurorusVox]

LLD thinks I’m scum with you, weuler.

For some reason she doesn’t think STD or arko could be your partner.

@LLD what do you make of weuler following near-enough the exact same strategy I outlined scum!weuler would do if they were partnered with arko?

If weuler is not scum with one of STD or arko then my only conclusion is that you are scum, LLD; either with weuler himself or with STD

[AurorusVox]

STD is my strongest scumread but that doesn’t mean I am locked in. There are two scum so why shouldn’t I try to determine who the other one is??

I think it’s pretty clear I’m pushing weuler because I suspect them of being the std partner. I just have to see whether they’re more likely than you. If I confidently townread you, then I wouldn’t care out of std or weuler; in fact I’d probably go weuler first to avoid the weuler-arko situation I described.

That’s why I am also questioning you. But the fact you’re not engaging with my questions really isn’t helping.

[AurorusVox]

STD is my strongest scumread but that doesn’t mean I am locked in. There are two scum so why shouldn’t I try to determine who the other one is??

I think it’s pretty clear I’m pushing weuler because I suspect them of being the std partner. I just have to see whether they’re more likely than you. If I confidently townread you, then I wouldn’t care out of std or weuler; in fact I’d probably go weuler first to avoid the weuler-arko situation I described.

That’s why I am also questioning you. But the fact you’re not engaging with my questions really isn’t helping.

So you'll consider voting Weuler today?

Yeah - if you were to convince me you’re town, I would probably vote weuler today

STD do you see the possibility of weuler/arko?

[AurorusVox]

No.

But the way I look at it is this:

If LLD is scummy then STD is the best vote

Std-LLD plus std-weuler teams

If LLD is townie then you’re the best vote

Std-weuler plus weuler-arko teams

You become more likely scum if LLD is townie due to the chaining NK->LLD

Obviously if I think LLD is scummy that doesn’t make sense with you as scum

I’m essentially trying to figure out between you and LLD who is scummier as that will determine which vote has the best chance of landing on scum between you/STD

At the moment my preference is still on STD but I’d consider voting you, which was the question LLD asked

[AurorusVox]

At this point it feels like there is to much interference from the scum who makes up 40% of the remaining players. Today we really just need to find one scum and not the entire pair

You say this and then start immediately looking at pairs…

LLD-arko makes less sense than STD-arko imo. Wouldn’t you agree?

So despite not wanting to look at pairs (why?) you’d have to argue LLD-STD or AV-arko.

Is there a reason you don’t want to do that?

[AurorusVox]

See my overthinking only kicks up the longer the game goes on and as the paranoia seeps in. And maybe that’s why some of your posts are rubbing me up the wrong way. But then I love logic puzzles so…

At least you’re actually engaging with my questions and enquiries.

Arko, you’re the person I’d be least willing to eliminate today. Do you think LLD’s interactions (or lack thereof) could indicate a town mindset - as in, she thinks there’s no point in engaging with my questions because she genuinely reads me as scum? Or is it scum just trying to avoid the pressure? She did similar to Dio I think. I ask you because it would be helpful to get an outside perspective, especially because I don’t think you and LLD are a scumpair.

[AurorusVox]

I can understand that you might not see the value in responding to me for your own reads if you’re town reading me as scum, but you have to understand that fmpov I am trying to get a read on your slot to help me decide if weuler is the one I want to go for over std or not.

If you’re town, engaging with my questions will hopefully demonstrate that to me through helping me reach a better understanding of your thought processes; if you’re scum, I still want that engagement because I fundamentally disagree that std/weuler is impossible and I want to see your attempt at justifying such a conclusion - at the moment it seems like you don’t want to say it because you don’t want to give me a reason to go after std. My perspective of the likely scumpairings hinges on this really.

And equally, if you’re town, you not responding isn’t going to convince me you’re town = makes me hesitant to go for weuler = you now confirm the AV-weuler team to yourself (or, as scum, allows you to justify your mislim push)

I’ve asked you to explain why weuler couldn’t be paired with STD - because I haven’t seen him push STD once today, every conversation that involves the possible pairing that he is in ends up focusing on your slot.

And now we have std “liking” the fact that weuler isn’t after pairs…

All the time I can’t get a clear read on you because you’re not engaging with my questions, it’s reaffirming that suspicion that it’s you and STD together, and you’re just watching me overthinking and slowly build up suspicion/paranoia of weuler. Now I can try and read you from your posts to others but what I really need is answers to my questions to you because I’m asking those BECAUSE I want to use them to get a read on you!

Literally weuler is acting suspiciously, moreso than you (in your interactions with others) but every time I think about it I come back to the fact that you won’t be drawn to comment on the likelihood of std as scum with weuler. It makes me worry that it *is* you and std, and you just don’t want me to go for him first!

Look ignore everything else. All I’m asking now is why you don’t see weuler-std as a pair. If you can explain that, then fuck it, I’ll even commit to a vote for weuler once you’ve answered. But if you still don’t want to respond then I’ll have to draw my own conclusions from that and vote on that basis.

[AurorusVox]

Std why don’t you think it’s worth considering pairings? I’m basing a lot of my play/decisions today on possible pairs.

[AurorusVox]

STD reasons:
(1) never really seems to give many reads
(2) weird weuler vote d1
(3) weird arko vote d2
(4) yes the KT NK could be part of this
(5) if LLD is scum then yes there’s the historic Fred-WS pairing
(6) I can’t negate any pairings
(7) no one really seems to be pushing him except me; either I’m totally wrong or scum don’t want to go after their buddy
(8) how many posts does he make that say he’ll come and post something useful later…
(9) weuler saying LLD+std but then never really pushing std (scum by association)
(10) ott reaction (“third degree”)

Also yes it was meant for to be a bit theatrical, mainly because I came up with a clever play on words and I was proud of myself.

———

But. I mean yeah. The post about arko’s iso is kinda compelling. And I’ve just isod std and there is more content there than I remember. Argh. My head is getting a little mashed.

———

@LLD I guess fmpov if you’re scum with std you’d be worried admitting the chance for weuler being scum with std would encourage me to vote std.

@weuler what do you mean by the pairs are disjoint[ed]?

[AurorusVox]

@LLD at this point I feel like I want to vote weuler tbh…

[AurorusVox]

Aww fuck. Here goes…

VOTE: weuler

[AurorusVox]

UNVOTE:

[AurorusVox]

LLD/STD confirmed not scum together

LLD-weuler / LLD-arko are both extremely unlikely
LLD pretty much confirmed town then

Arko highly unlikely to be paired with STD too cos he posted too right at the end there as well, but they did both post at pretty much the same time so not as clear cut as LLD/STD

Gotta be weuler-std or weuler-arko then

[AurorusVox]

@arko it’s not a random pivot, I’ve been looking at weuler all day. And then especially “today” (as in 03.02), as I reflected on LLD I realised that I was only really getting scum vibes because she wasn’t engaging with me, and actually her play was more townie than weuler. I mentioned this too. I needed to do something to figure this out. If it’s not std-lld then it has to be one of the two teams up there (weuler-std or weuler-you), and based on how you’re trying to misrepresent my vote I’m guessing it’s the latter.

PS I was also originally refreshing my page in case I needed to do a quick unvote.

[AurorusVox]

I wasn’t completely sold on std scum anymore, I was thinking it could be weuler with either you or arko. I documented all of this throughout the day.

I can 99% clear LLD based on her not being scum with STD, she doesn’t make sense as your partner, and given her push on weuler I don't see her being scum with weuler either.

I can’t clear you or std because you could be weuler’s partner.

If you and weuler are scum, I don’t need to clear the others because they’re town by virtue of you both being scum and there only being 2 scum…

[AurorusVox]

@arko What are you on about?

I voted for weuler because I think he’s scum.

The possibility of quick hammer is there but not taken so clears pairs that don’t include weuler (well, it clears LLD/STD, and mostly clears you and STD but you did both post at practically the same time as i unvoted so not as watertight)

(Yes it was a risk but as I believed weuler to be scum then it was a risk worth taking because otherwise we’re just going round the same arguments for the next four days and my head couldn’t take it.)

And of course the possibility of there being scum with weuler is not eliminated - so clearly I’m looking at you or std.

———

Also consider, if I’m scum with arko, why did I not just wait for weuler to vote for one of LLD/STD? I don’t make sense with arko.

Equally, weuler townread me to the hilt. What is my scum motivation for going against him?

The scum team is weuler and probably arko or possibly std.

[AurorusVox]

I literally just said that we don’t make sense as a team

[AurorusVox]

That was @arko btw

[AurorusVox]

"I can't be partners with person I also want dead" - AV without the Bullshit tacked on

Also, It's pretty obvious that voting weuler and praying to christ the other 2 townies probably won't work. Also, It's pretty obvious that we could be both scum and I'm bussing you. It's pretty obviously possible. but playing it as: I can't be partners with them when I die because of this reason that only works on paper and the fact he wants be gone, just doesn't work.

Like what does this even mean?

If I am scum with you and weuler fully townread me and therefore you (the partnership he saw was LLD and std as one pair and me and you as the other) then why the hell would I go for town!weuler as scum? Where is the scum motivation to do that?

I don’t make sense as scum with you, so av/arko is debunked (this is for LLD and std if he’s town).

———

The lack of quick hammer from you and STD now confirms you’re not partners.

So it has to be weuler + one of you

VOTE: weuler

Arko why do you think we (me/weuler) shouldn’t be voting at this stage you three who haven’t been voted are confirmed not paired?

[AurorusVox]

Thanks Arko

[AurorusVox]

@LLD I got paranoid and thought (a) weuler was coming for me OR std and (b) I wanted you to town read me so you wouldn’t destroy my carefully built towncred…

[AurorusVox]

I was honest about being paranoid / an over thinker.

I felt like I needed to put pressure on weuler because you thought we were a scumpair, and when weuler said they had a suspicion but didn’t name it I was like oh fuck I need to vote him before he votes me, cos I thought you’d go with whoever was voted first (as it turns out you did, just after like a hell of a lot of a tougher ride!)

Pedit: yeah I said in the PT that I thought I’d been played by you, LLD. In the end it got in my head and I wanted the day over asap tbh!

[AurorusVox]

I thought KT was friendly neighbour cos he kept saying “hi” lol

And CCG cos he kept saying “brother”

[AurorusVox]

Also, proud that the very early distancing against WS laid a very good foundation to negate the AV/STD pairing.

But then I was also paranoid that if I didn’t push STD hard today (like if I went after you, LLD) that people would realise I’d been distancing him all along without the intent to eliminate him.

There was a point where the strategy changed from trying to get a D4 win after either me or STD went down, to trying to win today and that’s where I started to pivot to weuler

[AurorusVox]

we definitely got lucky with the kingtroll kill too

That and it's hard when I replace into a slot that's near dead as town because it means it's hard to hunt when epople randomly want you dead for no good reasno.

Rescuing that slot was seriously impressive

[AurorusVox]

Also, proud that the very early distancing against WS laid a very good foundation to negate the AV/STD pairing.

But then I was also paranoid that if I didn’t push STD hard today (like if I went after you, LLD) that people would realise I’d been distancing him all along without the intent to eliminate him.

There was a point where the strategy changed from trying to get a D4 win after either me or STD went down, to trying to win today and that’s where I started to pivot to weuler

How the fuck I got you to vote Weuler there is beyond me

You asked so nicely!

I actually was waiting for you to push me to vote weuler because as I saw it my only other option was STD…

[AurorusVox]

It’s a little bittersweet that after what I’d consider good play throughout most of the game that a monumental misplay on my behalf is what won it in the end but I guess a messy goalmouth scramble counts just as much as a 35 yard screamer…

I think you’re being a little harsh there arko tbh. There was plenty of good play. The Fred lim that never happened was good from town. NK going down entirely with town on the wagon was good from us.

I’m not built for ELO. I didn’t enjoy it but I think std payed it well. I was definitely too eager to rush through it.

[AurorusVox]

although I was annoyed because every time Town replaced out, it was someone who townread me replaced by someone who didn’t lol. And the easy/easier lim targets being replaced by more competent and/or present players.

I also got lucky with my replacee too though even though I spent most of the game accusing him of being scum <3

[AurorusVox]

I mean for most of the game, including the final day until my weuler vote, most of the town thought I was town (you and weuler both had me as your strongest townread earlier today) - if that hadn’t been the case I wouldn’t have been able to defend myself after the vote because the excuse (no scum motivation to go after weuler) wouldn’t have been viable.

I got in my own head and almost fucked it but earlier play (towncred + distancing) helped to negate the magnitude of the catastrophe…

[AurorusVox]

On the lurking. There were definitely one or two occasions where I didn’t post strategically but on the whole I generally posted whenever I got a chance. I’m a teacher so it’s not like I can just grab my phone to catch up and post during the day. And I have 18 month old twins so there’s not a lot of time when I’m at home either. I could generally post (a) first thing in the morning while drying off from a shower, (b) when I got home from work and sat on the loo - not every day!! And (c) late at night like now when I should be sleeping lol

So although there were 1-2 times I didn’t post when I could have, it genuinely would have been pretty much the same even if I was town.

[AurorusVox]

Oh interesting. What made them seem lurky? I tried to put as much scum hunting content in them as I could!

[AurorusVox]

Anyway on point (c) above I should go to sleep now I am on 1% battery and it’s gone midnight!

Cheers for the game guys, I hated every minute of the final day

[AurorusVox]

Morning all!

I tried to be nice and open about what I was trying to do in the Mafia PT, if anyone cares to read that for contextualising actions. You’ll notice I get more uncertain as d3 goes on lol

The “lower suspicions” of std were intended to pave the way for the weuler vote due to our decision to try to get the win d3. I felt like I’d locked myself into std and basically spent most of the day looking for ways to backtrack on that lol

I think we were both worried about 3p endgame re-evaluations, but maybe we should have just stuck to believing that no one saw us as partners to carry us through. I maintain though that if I led the charge on STD and he flipped, people would wonder why I was still alive in d4. I had to be scummy enough to keep around, y’know? I kinda figured that if either of us was to go down d3 it would be better if that was me, especially if I could make it look like a bus on weuler to keep the possibility of his elimination there too

[AurorusVox]

Good game though. I guess I shouldn't have voted and went to bed

Yeah that helped!

[AurorusVox]

<3 I really enjoyed playing with you again LLD and tbh the newbies none of you played like proper newbies!

STD played D3 so well

[AurorusVox]

Ddkoba <3

I’m also a little drunk so now is the time to get insight into the ways of AV

[AurorusVox]

It’s been 7.5 years since I was last on site! Life makes it hard to come back, work plus twins it makes it so hard. I just want a game as town

[AurorusVox]

I have looked at a few queues. We’ll see!

[AurorusVox]

I saw you all join and thought why not

[AurorusVox]

Just don’t blame me if I only post once or twice a day @arko