Newbie 2109: Taco Hemingway | Game Over

[CCGeek]

tis a DkKoba host!

@Weuler @Not Known 15 kindly get a profile picture please, it makes your posts easier to identify while skimming

Third game on this forum, the only person I'm familiar with on the PL is WS, from my last game, altho he subbed in after I got limmed. Does that count as having played with him before? :think:

VOTE: CCGeek, obvious lurkscum. Haven't made a single post

ooh, interesting observation indeed. Unfortunately for you, the odds of that happening surely is 1/8, right?

On that note, I'd prefer to watch some shenanigans unfold in the thread first and then put down my vote. For now, VOTE: No Vote

[CCGeek]

tis a DkKoba host!

@Weuler @Not Known 15 kindly get a profile picture please, it makes your posts easier to identify while skimming

Surely I already have one?

Doesn't load for me

[CCGeek]

That seems to be a me problem then

[CCGeek]

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.

[CCGeek]

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate, brother. Dionysus is at E-3.

[CCGeek]

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate, brother. Dionysus is at E-3.

Not Known 15, Space and CCGeek are voting Dionysus, putting Dionysus at E-2.
VOTE: CCGeek
I don't believe what I quoted was an innocent mistake.

Well, it

was

a genuine mistake on my part. Not Known's vote skipped my mind when I made that post, as well as earlier when I put the vote on him. However, it really doesn't change much. It was the only "non-random" vote at that point available to me. With all the fluff that was being thrown around, I figured I might as well start a proper discussion. And, hey, it succeeded in a way.

Also IMHO, E-2 isn't really "bad" on page 1 of Day 1, and in fact, the person's reaction as well as the future development on the wagon outside RVS may provide an interesting point to analyze later in the game.

With that said, I'd prefer to not retract my vote for now, this discussion has the potential to evolve further.

[CCGeek]

The result of the CCG wagon may be even more informative

Ooh, can't wait!

[CCGeek]

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery.

I tried to contribute to starting the conversation, brother. What Dionysus did was respond to filler, when there was actual game content he could respond to. While yes, I didn't vote, the NV was also an attempt at prompting people to speak up. Get them involved. Speaking up against what usually defies convention.

Also istg, if a genuine but stupid mistake leads me to becoming the lim for today, I'll literally riot... that is exactly what had happened my last town game asw.
The "not E-2" mistake was a genuine mistake. Not sure how to make it more believable, but yeah. I changed my stance to "doesn’t matter it’s E-2", because:
1. I want a reaction out of the Dionysus slot before changing my vote and
2. It really doesn't matter it's E-2 in a D1 2-scum scenario. And 2 of those votes are RVS votes. I really want to repeat what I said in #28.

Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.

[CCGeek]

Also, woo! I'm at E-2

[CCGeek]

Spoiler: Fluff:

Back after a four-hour exam, my back is dying.

Anyways, on with the replies:

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery.

Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.

You wouldn't have minded putting someone at E-1 at page 1 on day 1? You do realise that allows a scum to "accidentally" hammer?

Brother, that may be so on paper, but in practice, said D1-hammering scum is always flash-hammered D2. Which is in no way ideal for newbie game scumteam. Having both scum live to D2 is the most advantageous position for newbie game scum, and so, newbie game scum will never take the gamble of hammering at E-1, as it reduces their chances at victory significantly.

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

What is particularly awful about my response? Having someone E-2 so quickly is advantageous to scum.

Hell, no, brother. Not this early into D1. Please read the above bit of text addressed to Weuler.

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.

Well, up until this post there was no proper game content to respond to, only fluff. None of the votes on me were serious (because I have "sus" in my name? Come on). However you are pinging me with this with trying to rush an elimination so quickly on day 1.

This may be debatable, but I feel RVS votes are game content. And I genuinely think that it is not pro-town to open with voteless fluff that does not start a conversation or contribute to an ongoing conversation.

No, the person I saw who took it seriously was CCG surprisingly.
Mainly thinking of this quote (Bolded Text):

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to

existing game content (Space's vote on him)

or drop his own vote.

Fair. I was myself surprised I was expected to respond to this. Curious to see what CCG has to say now

If I hadn't missed Not Known's vote on Dionysus, I would have put it in the part of post #22 Space bolded. As I have just said above, RVS votes ARE game content. You are either supposed to react to an RVS vote, or put in your own. These responses can be a point of analysis later on. If you do not want to vote or start a new conversation in RVS, I honestly think it's better to lurk till you find an opening you want to slide in. If you at least accompanied your first post with ANY vote, I wouldn't have pursued it at all.

[CCGeek]

EBWOP: Addition to the second reply @ Dionysus

In the early game, it's still very casual and heavy posts and proper persuasion doesn't take place yet. E-2 is not really a problem, because scum can't hammer said person. And what I wrote about the E-1 spot still stands.

[CCGeek]

This may be debatable, but I feel RVS votes are game content. And I genuinely think that it is not pro-town to open with voteless fluff that does not start a conversation or contribute to an ongoing conversation.

This is probably just a point of disagreement, but with RVS there is a fine line between game content and trolling. Pretty much every vote cast up till this point was borderline trolling. I understand the point of RVS but there was nothing worth responding to until you pointed the finger at me.

Yeah, sure, differences in opinion about game theory can exist. However, I'm not really willing to let you off my hook entirely. As Not Known pointed out, your reactions do not make too much sense from a town perspective. I just caught up fully till page 3, and I really have to say I agree with what Not Known 15 says. He put to words some of my feelings that I couldn't quite express, and also made me reconsider certain things. The more pressing issue rn is that we require more information and not many facets for it to arrive. One such facet that exists rn is the FroggieMaybe slot, which is being replaced. However, before the replacement comes in, the game state is such that the only way to net us any information is to put pressure. But, for some reason. the game feels slightly stagnant to me, and NK15 and Aurorus' recent posts seem to be the only genuine attempts to push the game forward. These 2 are my only town leans right now.

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery.

I tried to contribute to starting the conversation, brother. What Dionysus did was respond to filler, when there was actual game content he could respond to.

While yes, I didn't vote, the NV was also an attempt at prompting people to speak up. Get them involved. Speaking up against what usually defies convention.

Also istg,

if a genuine but stupid mistake leads me to becoming the lim for today, I'll literally riot

... that is exactly what had happened my last town game asw.
The "not E-2" mistake was a genuine mistake. Not sure how to make it more believable, but yeah. I changed my stance to "doesn’t matter it’s E-2", because:
1. I want a reaction out of the Dionysus slot before changing my vote and
2. It really doesn't matter it's E-2 in a D1 2-scum scenario. And 2 of those votes are RVS votes. I really want to repeat what I said in #28.

Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.

First bolded point I don’t really buy. Its the explicit no vote tagging of it that doesn’t sit well. You were already no voting. It’s like drawing attention to you doing stuff, without actually having to commit to a vote. (I do understand your point that you were doing more game relevant stuff in the content of your post)

And then ironically when you do commit to the vote you get called out on it anyway. I mean, I can believe there’s a genuine mistake there (not realising it’s E-2) but if you have this whole theory behind the relevance/importance of the E numbers then I’d have expected some of that thought process would have manifested itself in some way in your initial response.

I’m not sure I like the (faux?) outrage in the second bolded part. I’m trying to ascertain whether I think this is scum being pissed off for something they don’t think is a scumtell. I also don’t think it’s fair to characterise the votes on you as being for “the mistake” as much as the other things around it.

Yeah, you have a great eye, I'll give you that. I actually wanted to put in my entire "E-number" theory directly in my initial response, but I was short on time, and something demanded my attention ASAP, which is why post #28 was a very brief post on my part. If you notice, my next post was about 5 hours later, where I posted my "theory".

And about the second part, I'm still salty about my last town game xD


As for how I want the game to proceed, I'd like to see pressure on either Dionysus or Campbell. I won't be moving my vote from Dionysus for now, however, I am not averse to voting Campbell. I'll see if I want to move my vote after we have more content from both of them.

[CCGeek]

I'll be swamped today, and I won't post much. But for now, I'm just going to quote two posts from Campbell's ISO:

I suspect:
Space is town.
CCGeek is mafia.
Not Known 15 is mafia with CCGeek.

In my opinion, anyone who has firmly stated that I am mafia with confidence are town. The following are players who fall into this category:
1. Space
2. Dionysus
3. CCGeek
4. Not Known 15
...

The only person on whom his read remains constant is Space. Y'all's thoughts on this?

[CCGeek]

If I'm getting this correctly, I believe Campbell's logic rn is something along the lines of: Scum wants to leave a "scummy" person alive till D2 for a better push. It's a rather interesting approach to a newbie game.

[CCGeek]

Exams ended today, will reread from page 4 (that's where I "left off") and post later in the evening. I alr have skimmed over the posts, though.
RN I am kind of uncertain about Kingtroll, and I'll articulate my thoughts in my later post.
Also a little something I found I was asked twice, @Aurorus @Weuler, I put out the "reasoning" in order to prompt a proper response from Campbell, but well, didn't succeed at doing so.
Also regarding WS, I am slightly familiar with his meta, and can confirm that this is his regular posting style. While he hasn't posted too much content, I'm not sure if it's worth considering him a possible elim for today. But yes, we defo need more content from both Campbell and WS.

[CCGeek]

Preparing a post rn

[CCGeek]

An Analysis of KT's introductory post

(peppered with my own thoughts):

I'm not currently seeing Campbell Soup as anything other than a member of the town that is thinking that keeping their cards and logic mostly close to their chest is a good idea, while others in game assume that zipped lips sink ships. I don't think Campbell has had any sort of agenda in their approach and I'd argue they've been more rash in the face of resistance and a member of the Mafia would have backed off an unpopular point in an attempt to dissuade early game suspicion.

KT raises valid points regarding FAC'S behaviour, and why it could possibly be town. Now, I have heard the argument that "too scummy to be scum" should not really be used in newbie games, as information votes are really valuable either way. Before I start rambling, I'd like to clarify that I believe Campbell is town, from a gut instinct. KT's arguments have convinced me as well. Now, I won't deny that there are slight amounts of WIFOM in the argument. But at least the pressure on FAC got him to open up more than before. But, what do we glean from his flip? If he flips green, it doesn't clarify too much. The state of confusion is not cleared. General suspicion on KT and Dio remains, while Weuler/Aurorus also becomes a possibility. Now, policy eliminations aren't good for town either on D1. If we decide on a WS elim, in essence, it's picking your poison. Town progress starts banking on FAC's red flip or scum mistakes in the future. Keeping FAC alive ought to produce some interesting results from scum on D2. On the other hand, a WS elim isn't ideal either. I am having a hard time deciding which is the lesser of two evils. Legitimately in a dilemma and am not sure how we should even be making progress next day. I say this because, ideally, scum will be aiming for a low-information or a confusing kill, and we'll have to start almost from square one in D2 if we don't choose correctly here.

Anyways, back to KT's post. Things start to look slightly muddier when you approach his paragraph on Dio.

Dionysus played the game as a casual commenter up until others (such as Not Known) began making larger and more in-depth posts, in which case he began also making comprehensive posts, but mostly about game mechanics. Posts such as 102 and 113 are both good mechanic posts (going the full way through the scenario Campbell's logic causes and discussing the reasoning for their hesitation on giving scum an easier time hammering), but they're then forced to carry the weight of actual reads that Dion seems not confident enough in to let them sit in their own post (claiming Campbell's is just pretending to have such logic as a cover and stating that there is a "consensus" on them flailing, respectively).

To remind y'all, post #113 is this:

Spoiler: 113

Mainly why you avoided answering my question in #68: why me putting CCG at E-2 quickly wasn’t worthy of your suspicion but CCG doing it (potentially accidentally) was? And there was a further point in there about why you are so hesitant to use your vote with any conviction (you’ve continued this with the declaration you’d unvote Frederick if he reached E-1)

P-edit = preview edit: when you edit your post after you initially submit, after seeing new posts which come up in the preview step.

I answered this already in #59. CCG did it off the back of fluff. CCG being at E-2 later on wasn't off the back of fluff. Same for Campbell now.

And I think don't know how else to explain my hesitance beyond what I have said: I don't want scum to hammer a townie. But if you want some clarity I won't be lifting my vote from Campbell unless something big changes as the day progresses. The consensus is forming that his behaviour is flailing scum, a read I share and I would be comfortable with him being hammered.

I am not exactly sure as to how this is supposed to be a mechanic post analyzing FAC's behaviour. Also, unlike KT's firm insistence on FAC being town, he does not give a final consensus on Dio. I'd like to believe that this is not indicative of anything, and since the suspects in question can deflect this easily enough, I'm simply pointing this out and not making any arguments out of it. But yes, @Aurorus, this is probably the only piece of evidence piecing the Dio/KT scumpair argument. We are yet to watch these two interact more, I'd like you to keep an eye out on D2 for this.

For other players:

Having not been present when CCG first messed up our elimination count, none of his posts have actively pinged me in a poor fashion. His explanations hold weight to me and don't seem like artifical reasons to continue voting someone.

Space has been relatively inoffensive but I have liked the few he's posted up to this point.

Auorus is one of the people I hold in high regards so far, their approach so far has seemed to be reasonable while I was reading up on the thread.

Weuler is confident in a way I townread, dealing in solid terms rather than fenceposts (Post 82 alone is enough for me to give them an early game town status).

Not Known is someone who has made a few posts but are confident in them. A Weuler light as of right now.

Agree with all but one of the reads presented. However, NK15 is quite different from Weuler in the sense that Weuler is the lead poster right now. He needs to produce more content. To be honest, the only similarities between NK15 and Weuler are their confident analytical tone and that their pfps don't load for me.

Wayward Son has by far pinged me the worst so far. There's a lot of question marks in his posts, something I normally associate with Mafia who want to appear productive and encouraging Town discussion without giving their own thoughts that could come back to bite them. Out of everyone I've read so far, they are the one who I would be happy to see a wagon on for a non-defined period of time.

I think I made my thoughts on WS clear in this post and my previous one. As much as I don't like a WS elim today, I still want more content. Hopefully, E-1 forces some insightful content out of him. VOTE: Wayward Son.

Also, #117 really just looks like a NAI mistake to me, not sure if it's worth reading into.

Anyways, I'll be taking a look at certain ISOs, and I'll try to figure out some other things on my mind rn. Let's see how this unfolds.

{P-Edit: @FAC Don't worry, motivation loss happens. Not your fault. Now that you put it in the past tense, I request you produce some more content before D1 ends, just as you are doing right now.}

[CCGeek]

Well, that had the opposite effect. But yeah, now I realise that my vote was stupid... although, hammering really wouldn't help scum!FAC too much. Is this a point in favour of him being town tho?

[CCGeek]

But yes, @Aurorus, thoughts on the rest of my post?

[CCGeek]

I also townread both NK15 and Weuler so I’m not sure what distinction you’re trying to draw between them? You said “he” needs to produce more content - who did you mean? I think both have provided a decent quality of content even if it’s not been of the same quantity.

Ah yeah, MB, could've phrased that better. @KT's post, where he says that he town reads both NK15 and Weuler based on a similar posting style. I do share the same view. Both NK15 and Weuler have produced quality content, although NK15 is slightly more lurk-prone. Weuler, however, is still the lead poster despite being comparatively quiet recently. Considering the fact that they both are almost universally townread, I personally think NK15 should increase his thread presence. He has created some good fodder for thought before, and if he continues doing so, it would benefit the town greatly.

But yes, the last line in the Weuler/NK15 para in #175 was meant to be a joke. I apparently have a bad sense of humour.

[CCGeek]

whoa two new subs. Welcome! I'm yet to catch up, just woke up.

are all y'all new to mafia

New to this site, and this is my third game on here. Have played chatroom mafia on another site not related to mafia, so I think that counts as well.

[CCGeek]

... really

in experienced

Fen, can you teach me~?

I see what you did there

[CCGeek]

I’m more used to playing this all in one session rather then a week for a day lol.

Same

[CCGeek]

Yo we have like 30 hours before deadline.

@CCG why are you providing so little content in your last few posts?

Been busy today, and only kept up with the current page, am catching up on the last 2 pages rn.

Vote: Dio

ALL ABOARD ME JOLLY BOYS GIRLS AND OTHER GENDERS OF CHOICE!

Aye aye Cap'n! Or wait, would the captain technically be Aurorus?
Anyways, VOTE: Diony

sus

. Will ISO him after I catch up.

added vote for votecounter: ~Koba

VOTE: Dionysus

[CCGeek]

That's E-2, I think.

[CCGeek]

Am prepping a wallpost

[CCGeek]

@CCG why are you providing so little content in your last few posts?

Here you go, brother.

A Brief Summary of Events Post-Subs

[peppered with my thoughts]
- LLD subs in, and tunnels into NK15. [This is an interesting take, but he has helped push the game forward at a crucial point in the early game and is a pivotal reason Campbell was universally scumread. Refer to #54. Early posts are early posts and I don't really agree with LLD regarding NK's first two posts. Now, as I have mentioned before, NK should step up their game and give his thoughts on the current scenario. Else he is going to be a prime push for D2. #54 has given him D1 town status, but it won't last. Kinda surprised at LLD pushing him today itself.]
- Dio is prodded. Just something to take note of.
- Dio claims that the game had stagnated, which was partly true. It felt like AV was the only one trying to scumhunt, and the rest of the PL just... lost their motivation. Hell, even the early-game behemoth Weuler admitted to it. I am no exception. However, what is interesting is that Dio does not unvote LLD despite her request to. [Point #1 for scum!Dio. Another thing to note is that LLD's attempts can be seen as genuinely targeted at reinvigorating the game, regardless of what her alignment is.]
- Weuler solidifies himself in the townie bucket with the unvote.
- #208 is nothing short of interesting. Dio rewords, saying the game

HAD

stagnated, that is, acknowledges that LLD has tried to reinvigorate the game, but also says that he is comfortable with her being eliminated. From his perspective, it only makes sense if he thinks everyone else is town... but that does not make sense, does it. LLD even provided him with a path by starting the NK15 wagon. If he had genuinely been a townie with null reads on everyone else, he should have jumped on the wagon no questions asked. [Point #2 for scum!Dio]
- LLD, like KT, raises very valid points regarding FAC's behaviour. #217 and #218 for context.
- She accuses Dio in #219. To which, Dio responds with: FAC was bad scum, you are a better scum player. and...

...unfortunately her behaviour has only managed to reinforce my view that she's scum.

This statement right here is beyond me. Whatever she has said till that point does not register as scum at all.
- NK15 presents the actual arguments for scum!FAC and why LLD should be the elim. However, the last line does not sit right with me, probably just a me thing.
- A little bit of hesitation creeps in in #230, which I do not like. However, in his immediate next post, he calls out FAC's initial read lists and maintains/reinforces his scumread.
- LLD's argument feels townie in #233, and it is very hard to paint #234 and #235 as anything other than town.
- #236 however. "... kill Dio today now"; "... hop aboard my bus". Intriguing sense of humour, if not anything else.
- AV and LLD's difference of opinion on whether the LLD slot elim is low-info or not should be kept in mind.
- #246, Aurorus crystallises the primary suspicions on FAC into a single post. Surprisingly enough, it took till this late into the day for someone to do this. The only other such attempt was made by NK15, but Aurorus' is more comprehensive.
- Fenrir replaces in and unvotes, bringing LLD to E-3. Then pushes out a very casual "let's-get-along" post when the stakes are this high and the DL is ticking. Very unsure of what to think of this sequence of events.
- Page 11 started off with fluff posts. Unsurprisingly, AV is the one who returned with content, here, the crystallised suspicions on Dio, which are all valid.
- Dio gets upset, AV provides some more solid arguments and votes Dio. LLD and me join in on the Dio wagon.
- LLD claims that WS posts have a genuine ring to them and that she needs more content from the slot, which, undoubtedly, we can all agree on.
- She TRs KT and is reading me and Space as null or an unshared lean, if I am interpreting this correctly.

And then comes post #274.

They all have

Dionysus at the bottom of their reads list

, as scum and have all managed to find the time to either vote for LHF in Fred or to push WS instead.

The WS push by KT while keeping Dio on list is interesting IFF KT has a partner on the Fred wagon and was expecting Fred to die, then to be able to do WS. That partner can be Dio.

Well, you see, discussing Dio/KT as a possible scum pair is the only genuine suspicion I provide in the mid-game. My only other push happened to be Dio in the RVS and the early game. I had been waiting in the mid-game for pressure to build up on Dio, but it never did. Everyone was focused on FAC. My vote was on Dio for almost the whole game until my debatable WS shift.

The rest of #274 was fine, attempting at creating a towncore and a D2 gameplan.

If Dio's town, I'll be alive tomorrow anyway to re-evaluate cause they won't shoot me.

This line, however, rang alarm bells in my head for some reason. Enough to make my townlean into a null read. You happen to be a dangerous and aggressive slot, one that definitely screams "trouble" for scum. Assuming you are not scum, you and Aurorus are among the towncore they should attempt to dismantle. And you are certainly the more aggressive one. How can you confirmedly say that scum won't shoot you if Dio flips town? Sure, you can say that scum can leave you alive to cause chaos in D2, but again, that means scum will be among those pushing you tomorrow, narrowing down the scumpool greatly. This statement hinges on the assumption that scum is going to take that gambit. Which is an interesting thing to assume, and I certainly hope this is an oversight in logic.

Anyways, end result: LLD null, Dio Scumlean.

My entire read list being:
Town: Me, Aurorus, Weuler.
Townlean: Space, NK15
Null: KT, LLD, Fenrir
Scumlean: Dio

P-Edit: I'm yet to catch up on Page 12, I see that there has been a lengthy exchange between Dio and LLD.

[CCGeek]

OH FUCK I TRIED USING THE POST COMMAND AND I ROYALLY MESSED UP

[CCGeek]

FIXED: A Brief Summary of Events Post-Subs

[peppered with my thoughts]

- LLD subs in, and tunnels into NK15. [This is an interesting take, but he has helped push the game forward at a crucial point in the early game and is a pivotal reason Campbell was universally scumread. Refer to #54. Early posts are early posts and I don't really agree with LLD regarding NK's first two posts. Now, as I have mentioned before, NK should step up their game and give his thoughts on the current scenario. Else he is going to be a prime push for D2. #54 has given him D1 town status, but it won't last. Kinda surprised at LLD pushing him today itself.]
- Dio is prodded. Just something to take note of.
- Dio claims that the game had stagnated, which was partly true. It felt like AV was the only one trying to scumhunt, and the rest of the PL just... lost their motivation. Hell, even the early-game behemoth Weuler admitted to it. I am no exception. However, what is interesting is that Dio does not unvote LLD despite her request to. [Point #1 for scum!Dio. Another thing to note is that LLD's attempts can be seen as genuinely targeted at reinvigorating the game, regardless of what her alignment is.]
- Weuler solidifies himself in the townie bucket with the unvote.
- #208 is nothing short of interesting. Dio rewords, saying the game

HAD

stagnated, that is, acknowledges that LLD has tried to reinvigorate the game, but also says that he is comfortable with her being eliminated. From his perspective, it only makes sense if he thinks everyone else is town... but that does not make sense, does it. LLD even provided him with a path by starting the NK15 wagon. If he had genuinely been a townie with null reads on everyone else, he should have jumped on the wagon no questions asked. [Point #2 for scum!Dio]
- LLD, like KT, raises very valid points regarding FAC's behaviour. #217 and #218 for context.
- She accuses Dio in #219. To which, Dio responds with: FAC was bad scum, you are a better scum player. and...

...unfortunately her behaviour has only managed to reinforce my view that she's scum.

This statement right here is beyond me. Whatever she has said till that point does not register as scum at all.
- NK15 presents the actual arguments for scum!FAC and why LLD should be the elim. However, the last line does not sit right with me, probably just a me thing.
- A little bit of hesitation creeps in in #230, which I do not like. However, in his immediate next post, he calls out FAC's initial read lists and maintains/reinforces his scumread.
- LLD's argument feels townie in #233, and it is very hard to paint #234 and #235 as anything other than town.
- #236 however. "... kill Dio today now"; "... hop aboard my bus". Intriguing sense of humour, if not anything else.
- AV and LLD's difference of opinion on whether the LLD slot elim is low-info or not should be kept in mind.
- #246, Aurorus crystallises the primary suspicions on FAC into a single post. Surprisingly enough, it took till this late into the day for someone to do this. The only other such attempt was made by NK15, but Aurorus' is more comprehensive.
- Fenrir replaces in and unvotes, bringing LLD to E-3. Then pushes out a very casual "let's-get-along" post when the stakes are this high and the DL is ticking. Very unsure of what to think of this sequence of events.
- Page 11 started off with fluff posts. Unsurprisingly, AV is the one who returned with content, here, the crystallised suspicions on Dio, which are all valid.
- Dio gets upset, AV provides some more solid arguments and votes Dio. LLD and me join in on the Dio wagon.
- LLD claims that WS posts have a genuine ring to them and that she needs more content from the slot, which, undoubtedly, we can all agree on.
- She TRs KT and is reading me and Space as null or an unshared lean, if I am interpreting this correctly.

And then comes post #274.

They all have

Dionysus at the bottom of their reads list

, as scum and have all managed to find the time to either vote for LHF in Fred or to push WS instead.

The WS push by KT while keeping Dio on list is interesting IFF KT has a partner on the Fred wagon and was expecting Fred to die, then to be able to do WS. That partner can be Dio.

Well, you see, discussing Dio/KT as a possible scum pair is the only genuine suspicion I provide in the mid-game. My only other push happened to be Dio in the RVS and the early game. I had been waiting in the mid-game for pressure to build up on Dio, but it never did. Everyone was focused on FAC. My vote was on Dio for almost the whole game until my debatable WS shift.

The rest of #274 was fine, attempting at creating a towncore and a D2 gameplan.

If Dio's town, I'll be alive tomorrow anyway to re-evaluate cause they won't shoot me.

This line, however, rang alarm bells in my head for some reason. Enough to make my townlean into a null read. You happen to be a dangerous and aggressive slot, one that definitely screams "trouble" for scum. Assuming you are not scum, you and Aurorus are among the towncore they should attempt to dismantle. And you are certainly the more aggressive one. How can you confirmedly say that scum won't shoot you if Dio flips town? Sure, you can say that scum can leave you alive to cause chaos in D2, but again, that means scum will be among those pushing you tomorrow, narrowing down the scumpool greatly. This statement hinges on the assumption that scum is going to take that gambit. Which is an interesting thing to assume, and I certainly hope this is an oversight in logic.

Anyways, end result: LLD null, Dio Scumlean.

My entire read list being:
Town: Me, Aurorus, Weuler.
Townlean: Space, NK15
Null: KT, LLD, Fenrir
Scumlean: Dio

P-Edit: I'm yet to catch up on Page 12, I see that there has been a lengthy exchange between Dio and LLD.

[CCGeek]

@mod can you do something about #286? Like edit a note into the top of the post or smthn. I don't want people to start reading it and heading to completely different games when they click on the post links.

[CCGeek]

@Dionysus You know what? At this point it isn't about your "scuminess" anymore, with the discussion evolving thus far, IMO you are our best information vote, even moreso than Lady/FAC slot.
NK15's rather brash and emotional response could convince me of a NK15/Dio scumteam later if Dio flips red. But yes @LLD, Fredrick A Campbell was a SE player.
Also @Weuler, head to #165 where Aurorus initially brings up the idea, and then #175 where I make the connection between KT/Dio. They also have some conversation between them starting from #123, which I was thinking of reviewing tomorrow, but you can go ahead and check it out if you want.

Anyways, good night, I'll check in with STD's reads tomorrow.

[CCGeek]

hmm. this wagon appeared out of nowhere a couple of pages ago. do people think it's pure?

the dio wagon? nah brother, there was some general sus on dio ever since he started posting (initially, courtesy of me), and my vote was on him for a major part of this day. Aurorus is more or less the most universally townread person and Dio is my strongest SR. The actual analysis of this wagon should factor in Space and LLD's votes IMO. Space's post is the one I do not like, and I do not claim to fully understand LLD. On that note, how likely is Space/Dio?
Space is the most universally nullread player, by the way.

Also, why is no one talking about LLD/Dio?

[CCGeek]

I need sleep, apologies. It's 3 am here.

[CCGeek]

oh shit. we lost a pr.

[CCGeek]

So we are looking at one of two scenarios rn:
(a) Mafia has a RB and our other PR is a JK.
(b) Mafia has a Rolecop and our other PR is a Friendly Neighbour.

[CCGeek]

Most likely we are not in JK column

, so risking revealing our PR may not be the best course of action.

Pardon? I do not quite follow your logic here.

The Weuler/STD interactions on Page 16 are the equivalent of 5D chess if they are our scum pair. I'm repeatedly rereading the LLD/NK15 disagreement, don't have a final opinion right now, although I am leaning in favour of the FN claiming.

But yes, going into the day, I'd like to see some content from Space, it feels like he has flown under the radar a bit too much. I'd like to see some more content from him.

[CCGeek]

EBWOP: I am sleepy, kindly ignore the (repeated) last line of the post.

[CCGeek]

welcome!

[CCGeek]

well. that happened.

[CCGeek]

Indeed, I'll be voting for NK15 a bit later, but first I want to take a look at the past 4-5 pages or so in general. Give me about an hour or so.

[CCGeek]

I'll also ISO NK15 a bit, but one thing I feel like no one is talking about is that he's the one who hammered Dio, and that it was 11 hours before deadline.

[CCGeek]

EBWOP: 8 hours

[CCGeek]

Now I think I'll try to make a wallpost about NK's ISO first and then dig into the whole LLD mess after.

[CCGeek]

prepping the wallpost, and holy shit my own mind is being blown rn and I'm just 7 posts in.

[CCGeek]

FUCK I accidentally closed the tab just before saving draft and lost two whole paragraphs. Well, will take some more time to bring out...

[CCGeek]

An Analysis of NK's ISO

Warning: It's not what you may expect

Spoiler: ISO#0

VOTE: Dionysus Probably evil.

Obviously RVS.

Spoiler: ISO #1

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

Earlygame read list. Usually can be treated with a grain of salt, but it potentially has some revisit potential, especially if scum.

Spoiler: ISO #2

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

Could you explain the difference between Campbell's reaction and Aurorus's reaction?

Not Known 15, Space and CCGeek are voting Dionysus, putting Dionysus at E-2.
VOTE: CCGeek
I don't believe what I quoted was an innocent mistake.

So, out of the blue Campbell assumes that this was not an innocent mistake. There is absolutely no town reason for Campbell to have this strong of an opinion. This looks like a total overreaction! Mistakes can happen, and wrongly saying that E-2 is E-3 after someone correctly said E-3 is not something scum would plan to make, usually. And because it came just 2 minutes after the previous posts it is very believable that CCGeek didn't check everything again and assumed that Weuler had made a mistake; after all, it was just one page(and people are usually overconfident that they don't make easy mistakes like that).
So, why would Campbell do this? Perhaps to avoid their partner to be put in an awkward position early...

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.

Well, up until this post there was no proper game content to respond to, only fluff. None of the votes on me were serious (because I have "sus" in my name? Come on). However you are pinging me with this with trying to rush an elimination so quickly on day 1. VOTE: CCGeek

Actually, UNVOTE: CCGeek as don't want to rush one myself but my fos is on your for now.

and indeed, this reaction is absolutely terrible!
Trying to rush an elimination so quickly on day 1?

Honestly, I would've understood if this fuss was about me accidentally putting someone at E-1. But even in that case, on a D1, I wouldn't have withdrawn my vote, since the slot in question hasn't posted their thoughts yet.

Nope! It's not! Not withdrawing your vote after everyone knows it is E-1 isn't rushing an elimination.
And then knowing that CCGeek is at E-2(CCGeek personally said it's E-2) puts them at E-1 without saying E-1?
Then realizes the mistake and unvotes?
And that's town?
Nope. Normally, town is generally less self-aware. Here, however... doing the exact same thing you criticize? In the exact same post? Town believes in what they say. Scum doesn't, and is actually much more likely to make a thought mistake like that and then to realize what they have done.

Solid town post. No holes can be poked in this post. I welcome everyone to try, but you'll fail.

Spoiler: ISO #3

I would never let mere odds get in the way of my intuition

Surely stating that your intuition is horribly wrong doesn't get me pushed further, right?

In all seriousness, fluff aside, the only notable thing that has happened till now is Dionysus' response, saying that Weuler's pfp loads for him, in response to me. AKA responding to fluff when he could respond to existing game content (Space's vote on him) or drop his own vote.

Therefore, I shall VOTE: Dionysus.

How is him not voting any worse than you voting to no vote?
Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery

VOTE: CCG

This is actually trying to get information via a question, and is a genuine stance someone could hold. This is not suspicious.

The only notable thing is that the wording confuses me, but I get the point. Interaction with AV, where he tries to dismiss AV's suspicion of me. The only other way you can analyze this from a scum perspective is soft distancing with either of us, but considering the current game state, I think we can more-or-less say it's not a possibility. Note: one-liner.

Spoiler: ISO #4

Spoiler: post 53 by Weuler

I suspect:
Space is town.
CCGeek is mafia.
Not Known 15 is mafia with CCGeek.

Why do you townread Space?

Space's posts in page 2.

Dodging the question...

ISO #4, one-liner again. Slightly interesting. FAC here says that Space's Page 2 posting was enough to convince him that he's town. For reference, here are the posts in question.

Spoiler: Space Page 2 Posts

Also don’t like the “it’s not E-2”, “oh it doesn’t matter it’s E-2”, seems slippery

This seems misinformative to me.
The "it's not E-2" is not what was said, it was CCG typing one thing and then after getting called out on it admitting his mistake.
The "oh it doesn't matter it's E-2" was not his excuse either with the actual quote being

Also IMHO, E-2 isn't really "bad" on page 1 of Day 1, and in fact, the person's reaction as well as the future development on the wagon outside RVS may provide an interesting point to analyze later in the game.

With that said, I'd prefer to not retract my vote for now, this discussion has the potential to evolve further.

Although I can understand how Aurorus might come to to these conclusions, I will be voting them. VOTE: Aurorus

Also the fact that my first vote got taken seriously I find is a little funny.

The excuse I read from CCG's post was that they were ok getting it to E-2 to see how Dionysus/others would respond to it, in case anyone is curious.

Clearly NAI posts. Defending a person and attacking another over a bad take is something that can easily be done by both town and scum. Early D1, so motivation/tonal analysis won't say anything either. Thus, instead of questioning FAC on why this was enough to convince him about town!Space, NK says that FAC was "dodging the question", which is frankly not true. Yes, elaboration was required on FAC's part, but he still gave an answer. The only way I can understand this post being made is that NK did not understand what FAC meant, which is still unlikely because FAC was directly answering his question. Thus, this is unlikely to be a scum/scum interaction, solely because scum doesn't leave holes in their interaction this early into D1, and this particular post would have been made in the scum PT. Conclusion: FAC slot and NK cannot be scum together.

Random thought: If Arko/LLD is what we're looking at right now, FAC's unreasonable townread on Space can be held as evidence, but frankly, I'm hesitating to put ANYTHING that came out of FAC's mouth as proper evidence. If he truly was scum, he succeeded at muddying the water to this point Lmao.

Spoiler: ISO #5

Precisely

New scumreads:
Wayword Son and Weuler

Scum are not pushing you, because they don't need to, because you're acting scummy?

Weuler and I are scummy because we've not pushed you?

Campbell looks like flailing scum to me because that makes no sense if Campbell is town. I cannot envision town campbell saying this.

A hard accusation and full confidence. NAI again.

Spoiler: ISO #6

They do seem so far to be almost early mis-elim bait, and the fact that they've gotten to E-1

with barely any resistance

tells me that there's probably one wolf either pushing Campbell or sitting on his wagon, regardless of what he says about townreading everyone who votes him.

That's not true.
You don't want to eliminate Campbell. You are the resistance.
(That doesn't mean that you are scum, however).

Maybe Campbell's partner has not found good reasons to prevent their elimination.

AurorusVox could be that partner, for example (never actually voted Campbell, and went to press somewhere else until they had to address Campbell)...

I'm going to put my vote on FAC which will bring him to E-2. I will unvote though if he gets to E-1. I am not comfortable with someone being on E-1 unless town is ready to hammer because it is inherently risky.

VOTE: Frederick A Campbell

This could be a bus, Dionysus was already named as possible Campbell partner very early on(by me), which would make defending Campbell a bad idea in their mind... if they are scum.

Of course, there is still the probability that I am wrong and Campbell is town... it's just too low atm. So, who wants to drop the intent to hammer?

This is where things get interesting. The part I underlined? Well, is there any town motivation in saying this? Justifying why a scum may not be on the wagon of their supposed partner is not exactly town reasoning. What's worse is that this line quietly and subtly SUPPORTS FAC's reasoning. The same FAC whom NK has apparently been hard-tunneling into. This threw me off extremely badly as it contradicts a lot of things. Such as, the immediate next part of the post. NK casually names two loose partner possibilities as an example, slightly expresses hesitation on his reads, and asks someone else to drop the intent to hammer. Now let's go over the possibilities:
(a) NK is scum, bussing a SE Partner. Absolutely impractical, and quite impossible, but the only thing dismissing it is that he does not want to be associated with the hammer. This also contradicts his ideas till now, by the way. No clear-cut logical analysis is possible if we consider this possibility. As a newbie, you don't push your partner to E-1 hoping for a counter wagon. Possibility dismissed.
(b) NK is town, pushing his townread. Impossible.
(c) NK is town, pushing his scumread (whose alignment doesn't matter). Due to the same reason as before, no reason a townie wouldn't want to be involved in the hammering of their primary scumread. The hesitation creeping in can be NK realizing that his main push is town, which, however, is impossible as the slot in question hasn't pushed out any relevant content. This means the only possible motive behind this is what brings us to the next possibility.
(d) NK is scum, pushing a town. He slightly backtracks on his entire D1 stance, which means, he is hesitant to hammer someone who will flip green. Furthermore,

he doesn't want to be associated with the hammer and wants someone else to hammer the scummy town.

Notice how he denied in his above reply to KT that a scum cannot be on the FAC wagon. This looks like shabby newbie scumplay to me.

Till right now, the NK!Scum argument seems infallible.

Spoiler: ISO #7

The game feels like it’s stagnating a little at the moment. I think we need to inject a little something, and I think the best thing for that is to start to buckle down and sort todays elimination.

In my mind there are 3-4 scenarios I’m currently working from:

(1) Fred and WS are a scum pair bussing/distancing from each other. WS has voted but not really pressured Fred; Fred has scumread WS but not voted him. Either wagon is a good choice in this scenario.

(2) Fred and KT are a scum pair, with KT defending his scum buddy by starting an alternative wagon. Fred flipping scum would paint a bit of a target on KT’s back which could be why he’s now fully committed to defending him. Obviously in this scenario Fred is the wagon of choice.

(3) Fred is town…

(a) …and KT is scum, who is playing like he knows Fred is town. He could be defending the townie that looks like he’s getting limmed for town credit. The WS vote would likely be distraction (why pull the wagon off a mislim and onto your buddy?) and so in this scenario neither wagon is good.

(b) …and KT is town; in this case WS wagon has a lot of value. Like others though, I’m finding it a little hard to reconcile KT’s certainty that Fred is town with a town mindset. This scenario would be the least likely in my opinion.

Given all of that, and given the state of the game, I’m declaring an intent to hammer Fred in the next 24-48 hours.

Fred, please claim and give your final reads.

I also see Fred/Dio. Why don't you?

Also...
We have

declared intent to hammer Fred!

A question we don't really need an answer to, as Dio is town. Note: NK agrees with an existing read about Dio being scummy. Bolding the intent to hammer is NAI for town!NK, but it feels like scum!NK is using this opportunity to broadcast his "towniness".

Spoiler: ISO #8

Well, we got to eliminate Fredrick now.
Fredrick claimed VT.
So VT is either VT or Mafia, and if Fredrick is Mafia we obviously want to eliminate it.
If Fredrick is VT we have eliminated a townie, but we go into Night with zero unclaimed PR's. Putting another person at E-1 just increases our chances of our PR's getting hunted out.
´

Can be argued for as quite a townie post, but also tries to cover up the previous "hesitation" to hammer.

Spoiler: ISO #9

VOTE: Dionysus Probably evil.

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

This is a bad bad bad look. These are NK15 first two posts.

NK15 votes Dio, says Dio is scum in post 2 but swaps to Frederick without much to say besides both of them have bad reactions.

So what made Frederick's worse? And why is NK15 still here over the bad reaction from the actual person who was being pressured?

Post 9 was actually a RVS vote, so... yeah.

Self-explanatory. NK15 dodging the early read list is something to note, however. It really doesn't change anything with respect to what we have inferred so far, except that scum!NK really wouldn't have put his partner as a scumread that early on. In the scum!NK world, this means that very likely there is 1 scum amongst {AurorusVox, Space/Arko, Weuler, Wayward Son/STD}. STD would be my wagon of choice on D3, to be honest.

Spoiler: ISO #10

Ahahahahahahhaah

That's a terrible description of his reads.

He starts off scum reading a pair, then gives his logic for a town read on space which he maintains.

He changes his scum reads because he feels humble and suspects that the hard scum reads on him are town. This isn't something a scum player who wants to avoid dying would do.

He then interacts with Weu and switches his read there. Again, this is a townie read progression from a player who is lost and genuinely sorting the game.

Yes, loose reads are slightly +town. Yet they also fit a scum under pressure trying to find someone who actually gets wagoned(on Day 1 scum being the top wagon and all other wagons dying down quickly is terrible for scum)
And the quality of the reads is simply not SE material, which is more likely coming from scum.
The idea of trying to be scummy is just terrible in a newbie game and usually doesn't come from experienced town or scum so it's most likely a lie.
Campbell has claimed VT so we have to lim you anyways unless we are absolutely sure you are town and someone else is not(to protect our PR's).
But you are probably scum... so...

An assortment of anti-FAC arguments and hey, that hesitation is back again: "Probably" scum. Where is the early Day 1 NK?? If your read is changing or has slightly changed after the sub, LET US KNOW. But instead, all we get is this. The adamant demand to lim LLD slot, while being hesitant. Which really doesn't scream town.

Spoiler: ISO #11

It was also post 1 before you said with confidence Dio and Fred were scum.

So why swap from Duo to Fred?

And tell me, with Duo acting scummy in the thread as of so far, what happened to yoyr scumread on them?

Dio could be a bus on you, so they are still in the scumpile, just not alone.


About the swap... I don't know anymore why for sure. It has been several days... maybe I thought Campbell was easier to crack.

This post, again, wording included, does not make sense from NK!town.

Spoiler: ISO #12

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate, brother. Dionysus is at E-3.

Not Known 15, Space and CCGeek are voting Dionysus, putting Dionysus at E-2.
VOTE: CCGeek
I don't believe what I quoted was an innocent mistake.

In my opinion, anyone who has firmly stated that I am mafia with confidence are town. The following are players who fall into this category:
1. Space
2. Dionysus
3. CCGeek
4. Not Known 15

VOTE: Weuler
Why didn't my actions make you suspicious of me?

At the end these are still BS.
Especially the second! Scum not trying to jump on a suspicious townie is just so awful reasoning from a town standpoint(an experienced townie would instinctively know that scum love to vote scummy townies, an experienced scum might still not have that on the list because they are not really trying to discern what scum want to do because they know...)

Fred's logic is beyond our comprehension. And we don't need to, because, this is where you start letting emotions come into your otherwise analytical tone. If this is genuine frustration that FAC is scum and we are veering off him, why the hesitation before?

Spoiler: ISO #13

You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself

and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.

BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.

Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Emotion, again. Trying to jump at any possible line to eliminate that slot. While certainly, you could argue this point separately from all my "evidence", with everything piled together, you most certainly cannot.

Spoiler: ISO #14

Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.

I'm not willing to lim Dio if the alternative is you.
It doesn't make sense. Why should I lim an unclaimed suspect when I have a claimed suspect? Especially when that claimed suspect is trying to get the unclaimed suspect to Intent?
So... you haven't addressed that obvious BS on Campbell yet. Why did you write that?

Finally, you return to tunneling onto the slot? This sequence of events does NOT add up as a townie development of reads.

Spoiler: ISO #15

IMO you are our best information vote, even moreso than Lady/FAC slot.

No. Dio is not our best info vote at all.
If Dio is town we give important info to scum.
The reverse isn't true, LLD is already claimed VT.
And LLD has now lots of interactions. So no. That's just not true.

I don't have anything to say here, just read my next to next comment. BUT, I'm positive that this can be read as attempting to buddy Dio.

Spoiler: ISO #16

You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself

and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.

BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.

Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.

Interesting that you ignored me but have something to say to NK15 here.

Why do I need to talk to you? At this point I'm fairly convinced you are scum, so what would I be convincing you of?

I'm talking to OTHER people, not you. I don't gain anything from responding directly to you. I will prove your points wrong and sell my points to people I think are town.

What an odd reply...? Nobody needs to respond to anyone, but ignoring someone when they make a very valid point is, uh, scummy. If the situation was reversed you would be all over me for this.

Your point ISN'T valid... and you're scum, so anything you say is intended to kill me... which you're trying to do.

I think it is, and I have asked you to explain. Do it.

This wall of quotes flies over my head, can anyone kindly explain this to me?

Spoiler: ISO #17

Hey, Dio is at L-1, and hasn't claimed a town power role. Guess what that means, NK15?

Nothing. No one has claimed intent.

It means, Dio is a VT. A PR would always have claimed ASAP when they're at E-1 and we're approaching the end of the day, and there is an existing counterwagon in the form of LLD.

Spoiler: ISO #18

i don't think i want to vote dionysus today, i think there are far worse slots tbh

Good. In this case please vote LLD who is spouting obvious BS and has claimed VT.

Tunneling again?

Spoiler: #19

Also, why is no one talking about LLD/Dio?

If it's that we have a S/S wagon pair.

If my memory serves correct, LLD points out why that is impossible literally within the next few posts. And once it was pointed out, it felt obvious to me, yet you never readdress this post of yours after that. Definitely makes sense for scum!NK to keep suspicion afloat, no matter how ridiculous.

Spoiler: ISO #20

LLD what the heck i didn't say i was voting for you lol

Can you please read this exchange and tell me how LLD can be town here?

You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself

and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.

BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.

Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Trying to rope STD into voting LLD is not quite a wise move, buddy. Especially given your voting history with the slot. Town!NK has some incentive to post this though.

Spoiler: ISO #21

i mean it just means i'm in a pickle

pedit: are you crucifying LLD for not knowing Fredrick was SE? what am i looking at?

Not knowing is a tall order when LLD has to know Frederick was SE.
Dio asked LLD to explain that post. She refused, giving Dio being scum as reason.
I asked her to explain. She didn't do it.

Can't be argued for as scum!NK. But, tunnelling continues.

Spoiler: ISO #22

i mean it just means i'm in a pickle

pedit: are you crucifying LLD for not knowing Fredrick was SE? what am i looking at?

They're hopping on my use of the word inexperienced to describe how Frederic played like he didn't know what the fuck he was doing. Which I think is a pretty fair description? To be honest?

It's.... it's ridiculous.

He didn't know what he was doing because playing as scum is difficult and he crumbled. It happens.

Yep. Inexperienced... actually, a player plays far more town games than scum games. So if Campbell was inexperienced, he was inexperienced at being scum under pressure. Yes, indeed.

The first ever proper comeback after page 1. At this point, one favourable argument that you concocted is not enough to save you.

Spoiler: ISO #23, 24, 25

What gets me most, STD, is I kind of doubt both NK15 and Dio can be scum here together anymore because if they are they're literally losing when I flip town. They both die back to back after that, so...

Oh, nevermind. That's not coming from scum at this point like... ever.

INTENT TO HAMMER DIO

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Dionysus

Basically, a quick shift, followed by the hammer, cutting discussion time short. Dio was already hanging at E-1, with no major unvotes. No scum counter wagons had been formed yet, and likely never would have. This means you stopped at least another page's worth of discussion. Care to elaborate?

That's it for the Day 1 NK ISO discussion. Day 2 is mostly mechanic talk that I really don't have a strong grasp on, so I feel like I shouldn't be commenting on them, except for NK's last post, where again he accuses LLD's defense of being BS.

CONCLUSION:

At best, NK is strongly anti-town. Hypothetically, scum!NK almost clears LLD, mostly due to the hard-tunnelling. On the other hand, town!NK does not quite confirm LLD as scum. I want y'all to give your thoughts on this post. I'll be likely dying tonight, I'll try to contribute some more ISO reads before the end of the day.

VOTE: NK15 talk to us.

[CCGeek]

that took a lot out of me holy shit

[CCGeek]

Of cause they aren't the oracle of scum, but they still wouldn't pick someone they didn't heavily believe was town (Unless he did, and he can say that now) and having an opinion of someone confirmed town is definitely more important than the unknown alignment fuck or the dodgy fucker.

Actually, I somehow missed this post. Yes, Arko, I didn't completely Townread Space, he was a townleaning null read. However, I liked the way he posted, and his way of thought seemed similar to mine. My entire reason for visiting Space was that, in a situation where I was unsure of how to proceed, I wanted to see how someone whose thought process matched mine made progress, with one rather null person cleared. Also, I didn't want to take a risk by visiting LLD, STD or KT (I was uncertain about them). Visiting Aurorus seemed futile as the dude already was the primary thread controller early in the day and I knew fully about his suspicions, and I had no hurry to clear myself to him. Weuler and NK15 were both sketchy at best. That leaves only the Space slot, but to my luck, he got replaced.

[CCGeek]

I'm going to do something rather interesting and try to analyze the NK choices for scum tonight, assuming NK15 flips.
- Me. Confirmed PR. No analysis is required. Any scum is capable of playing it safe and NKing me.
- Weuler is the second NK choice if I am spared by some miracle of god. This could imply one of two things: one, putting suspicion on Arko, or two, Arko is scum and it becomes a WIFOM.
- AV is VERY unlikely to be the NK, he does not have much presence today.
- STD: No reason to, he has a slightly sketchy ISO that can benefit scum, if he's not a scum himself. Also, I exist.
- LLD: In no parallel universe does scum choose to kill LLD over me. FAC's legacy isn't exactly clean.
- Arko: Nah.
- Third NK choice: No NK. In that case, LLD is almost confirmed scum. No other person in this PL feels like the type to make this much of a high-risk high-reward gambit. It's possible to use this argument as a WIFOM or blame it on STD, but well, I'm talking in hypotheticals here.

Very likely,

{

AurorusVox

,

Weuler

,

Lady Lamdadelta

,

Save the Dragons, Arko

}

is the set that lives to D2, under the assumption NK flips. In my opinion, STD should be the primary wagon of choice. LLD is still a complete mystery to me, I'll ISO her tomorrow. Colouring on the set are my current reads, by the way.

[CCGeek]

Now it's basically waiting for him to respond tbh

[CCGeek]

Ah shit just woke up, have an exam in an hour which will take another couple of hours or so, and then some other random stuff I need to attend to. So like, I'll start making the LLD analysis sometime around 4-5 hours later.

[CCGeek]

starting w the wallpost

[CCGeek]

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

Perhaps, I have admitted that STD has a sketchy ISO and he definitely should be the prime push D3. Not sure if we stop with the NK wagon though, evidence stacks up against him pretty significantly.

[CCGeek]

The LLDiagnosis

Lady Lamdadelta. The most apt adjective for her slot is probably nothing short of chaotic. From the 1 and a half days we have played with her slot, we have come to understand that she is generally an aggressive and conversational player, not afraid of getting into heated 1v1s during the day. On the contrary, her predecessor, Fredrick A Campbell was a rather conserved slot. So, let's see how that impression holds up to her ISO, shall we?

Spoiler: Opening

Well, Hello AV! Willing to hammer me, huh~?

When I got this town role PM?

For Shame!

Also someone shoule Unvote, given I'm at L-1.

If AV hammers me before we enter this game in proper, kill them tomorrow

LLD subs in and starts off with a rather NAI set of posts.
_______________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: The NK15 Tunnel

NK 15 is scum.

VOTE: Dionysus Probably evil.

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

This is a bad bad bad look. These are NK15 first two posts.

NK15 votes Dio, says Dio is scum in post 2 but swaps to Frederick without much to say besides both of them have bad reactions.

So what made Frederick's worse? And why is NK15 still here over the bad reaction from the actual person who was being pressured?

The team is likely Dio and NK15. Pick one and kill them today with me.

Vote: NK15

Here is where the real deal starts. Out of a sudden, LLD tries to start a counterwagon that is completely different from the two main existing wagons (FAC/her slot and Dio). Is this necessarily a scum tell? Not really. As a new voice into the almost stagnated gamestate, any sub slot often has valuable opinion to offer, and can often discover certain things that perhaps all of us have missed. What is it about NK15 tho? What LLD brings up as "evidence" is not really evidence. One-liner first posts are almost never good evidence, and neither are second page read lists. Then, how does it make sense for a SE player to push a widely townread player after subbing in? Regardless of their own alignment, it is always likely to backfire. A few arguments can be made in favour of both town and scum!LLD. One, town!LLD noticed something was off about this universal townread, and decided to contribute to town by bringing it to light. However, no evidence is actually presented, which makes this possibility iffy. It's as if she's withholding information from us, much like Campbell. Town!LLD here has all the motives to share all the available evidence, espeically since she was on the verge of hammer and she didn't choose the easier way out: the Dio counterwagon, immediately. Till this point, LLD's motivations may seem NAI, but there is just one little catch. She kept the door open for a shift, and the moment Dio starts interacting with her, she zeroes in on him. Taken in isolation, just these push-posts are townie enough, and Dio's responses certainly don't help his case. Due to the nature of Dio's replies, LLD was quite townily able to put the FoS on him and force out replies by prodding. But, the initial motivation certainly is not townie by any means. Scum!LLD has the motivation the muddy the water through this play, and it seems like a possible SE play. I cannot explain how this set of events plays out from the PoV of town!LLD.

Note: A funny coincidence I found is that NK15 is on Campbell's page 2 readlist. Also FAC mentions in his ISO that he tad taken notes

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: Lady's Dio Tunnel + 1 interaction with NK

A fascinating pop in! From a player who knows I have o ly just joined the gane to say the game has stagnated the MOMENT I begin to reinvograte the game.

Are you afraid of what happens if I'm not hammered soon?

I think you know that calling this game stagnating when two new active players have come in to reinvigorate it is a lie.

A fascinating pop in! From a player who knows I have o ly just joined the gane to say the game has stagnated the MOMENT I begin to reinvograte the game.

Are you afraid of what happens if I'm not hammered soon?

I think you know that calling this game stagnating when two new active players have come in to reinvigorate it is a lie.

This was to Dio not Weuler

A fascinating pop in! From a player who knows I have o ly just joined the gane to say the game has stagnated the MOMENT I begin to reinvograte the game.

Are you afraid of what happens if I'm not hammered soon?

I think you know that calling this game stagnating when two new active players have come in to reinvigorate it is a lie.

No. The game had stagnated. State your case if you want but I am comfortable with you being eliminated.

Go on and tell me why that is.

Why are you comfortable with my slot being eliminated?

Let's expand the question too.

Why are you comfortable with an elimination after a stagnated vote when that almosy invariably means that the eliminee is town and that the townies have an unchallenged assumption that is wrong holding them in this status quo?

That's not an answer. Why am I scum, Dio?

Why are you dodging my questions and giving generalized answers?

Is it perhaps that when put on the spot you don't have an answer that will hold up to scrutiny?

Because I feel you are giving me confidence right now. Certainty.

And for someone so certain you have shockingly little to say om the matter besides "let's wrap it up here folks"

Because I feel you are giving me confidence right now. Certainty.

And for someone so certain you have shockingly little to say om the matter besides "let's wrap it up here folks"

Your predecessor was all over the place. Going back and forth on reads like a metronome. When pressed his defence was that he was behaving scummy on purpose because reasons. The way you have jumped in so aggressively swinging for others is giving cornered scum desperately trying to survive the day. It's not fooling me.

Oh? Let's go take a look and see if these buzzwords hold any water.

Ahahahahahahhaah

That's a terrible description of his reads.

He starts off scum reading a pair, then gives his logic for a town read on space which he maintains.

He changes his scum reads because he feels humble and suspects that the hard scum reads on him are town. This isn't something a scum player who wants to avoid dying would do.

He then interacts with Weu and switches his read there. Again, this is a townie read progression from a player who is lost and genuinely sorting the game.

What you describe does my work for me. It shows an unconfident player flipping his reads trying to solve the game with a very easy profession of reads to see if you read him in ISO.

In other words... A townie.

What would be the scum motivation of flip floppong this much? It would be much better to say... Confidently push for a desth and then reevaluate after the townie dies, no?

In essence... Your argument doesn't hold any water. The motivations kg the player's actions you described were town.

You on the other hand fit the bill for scum perfectly.

Lurking massively to end of day to avoid blood on yoyr hands and when a replacement finally comes in and starts making waves you feel a need to add pressure to ensure their death.

That. Is. Scum 101.

I must return to work now, but I really like Dio/NK15 for a scum team here and I suspect you will get a lot mpre information today from killing one of those slots over defaulting to a now dead status quo.

VOTE: Dionysus Probably evil.

Town(by exclusion)FroggyMaybe, CCGeek, AurorusVox, Space, Weuler, Wayward Son


Scum:Dionysus, Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

(Their reactions to Dionysus being E-2 are awful)

This is a bad bad bad look. These are NK15 first two posts.

NK15 votes Dio, says Dio is scum in post 2 but swaps to Frederick without much to say besides both of them have bad reactions.

So what made Frederick's worse? And why is NK15 still here over the bad reaction from the actual person who was being pressured?

Post 9 was actually a RVS vote, so... yeah.

It was also post 1 before you said with confidence Dio and Fred were scum.

So why swap from Duo to Fred?

And tell me, with Duo acting scummy in the thread as of so far, what happened to yoyr scumread on them?

Well that was certainly an aggressive approach to the game

Aggressive, certainly.

But it's how I play. It's Rise of the Phoenix not Rise of the Lamb.

Also fuck my phone autocorrecting Dio to Duo

NAI aggressive tunneling. Nothing else to comment on, kindly point out if I'm missing anything important from here.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: The next highlights of Lady's ISO

LLD! What a blast from the past!

Please can you give me a read on WS?

I was about to ask you to reconcile your paired read with the NK post where he asked me to consider Fred-Dio. But then I realised they -if- your slot is town, then that’s an easy suspicion to then later dismiss (because the pair can no longer be true). Personally though, NK is my second strongest townread, so I won’t be voting them today.

Pedit: NK pushed me when it looked like I’d dropped my Dio suspicion. I don’t think they’ve let Dio slide by.

———

My primary concern is that we end up with no consensus and no elimination; there isn’t a great deal of time to organise another wagon. My secondary issue here is that if anyone is capable of turning a scumread into a townread - regardless of alignment - I think you’d be a good shout for it. I mean, I’m already feeling like not voting for you! My tertiary concern would be running up another claim and risking outing a PR and we eliminate Fred slot anyway.

@Dio, it’s not about no one wanting to eliminate Fred at the moment, it’s about giving people time to post their final reads. With the risk of being night killed, I need to make sure I’m contributing as much as I can at the end of the day to support town going forward. LLD is here to post content and whether that slot is eliminated or not, we get valuable information from seeing what they have to say.

———

Weuler, to be clear, have you unvoted because you believe them to be town, or because you were worried about someone hammering before LLD could post their views?

I'll give you a WS read when I get home and have better ISO access.

I get the fear of me but also consider the benefit of me and my reads.

Read Frederic again under the lens they were humbled by the pressure on them and trying to find a solving foothold they believed in.

And then read the people making arguments about fear of running up other claims.

It's way worse to kill a townie day 1 with little info gained than possibly force a claim. This setup has win equity with a day 1 mass claim. More equity than with a day 1 town elimination.

But if there is one thing I can alleviate your concern of its this.

There will be an elimination today. I will guarantee it.

So work on not letting your reads stagnate, work with me to find scum and we will gather the votes to kill them together.

Most are quite townie posts, no matter if taken in isolation or not. The one thing that I do not quite buy or like is the Fred defense, but it is partly credible. Well, at least an SE managed to comprehend Campbell to some extent.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: Selective Relevant Posts that Follow

Also AV, then where are the Dio votes?

If you NK and I are all suspicious of Dio, why not create a Dio wagon?

I admit that NK's response to my push is much more town than Dio's was. It's my preference to kill Dio today now anyway.

If I'm scum, from NK's perspective I would be bussing right?

So hop aboard my bus and let's build that wagon.

@LLD I think it’s disingenuous to suggest that a Fred-slot elimination is one that offers “little info gained.” My biggest question is why Fred never voted WS when he expressed suspicions of them. For a long time, WS was at E-2 and they never voted for them. KT is also somewhat tied to your slot (that’s a little harder to parse). But I do think the elimination gives info on those two in particular.

Actually, I’d love a read on KT too when you are back.

@NK @weuler: how do both of you feel about LLD’s push on Dio?

Its literqlly stagnated so much that no one can seem to give me a clear idea about why he is scummy. The game stalled and now peiple are arguing " well we just have to kill that slot".

I feel very justified in saying its a low info elimination on a townie.

Vote: Dio

ALL ABOARD ME JOLLY BOYS GIRLS AND OTHER GENDERS OF CHOICE!

Does Town!LLD have a motive to not vote Dio if she begins to suspect his slot? It takes her a solid number of posts to vote him. This may seems like a towny progression of reads, but keep the previous analysis in mind. Here, she asks the rest of town to vote and only after AV votes does she join in. I do not quite like this sequence of events. I do not have an opinion on her defense of Fred either.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: LLD Readlist after Dio Vote

WS is kinda scummy, but their posts have this genuine ring to them? It's weird. The scummiest thing they did was try to connect KT to my slot's death via claiming it's like a chainsaw but... I honestly can see a townie makign that argument, it's not GOOD but it doesn't mean it's not town.

WS slot is one I'll need to see more from, and given it's STD, I'm sure we will.

lol KT is town

one quick ISO look and oh dude that's town

I think KT has some decent reason to be on WS, I'll need to look at CCGeek and Space

CCGeek going in a pile....

Space goes in the same list.

Nothing too much worth noting, except for the KT townread. If we are in the town!LLD world, other scum does have motive to use this against her, but it's a stretch in logic to say that.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: The "Weird" Post

Okkkkkkay.

So!

Here is the list:

NK15
KingTroll
CCGeek
Space

Do you know what this list has in common?

They all have Dionysus at the bottom of their reads list, as scum and have all managed to find the time to either vote for LHF in Fred or to push WS instead.

The WS push by KT while keeping Dio on list is interesting IFF KT has a partner on the Fred wagon and was expecting Fred to die, then to be able to do WS. That partner can be Dio.

Space literally does BOTH.

So... for me

If Dio flips scum, one of these 4 is the partner. It won't be my slot, it probably won't be AV who could have let the clock run out on a Dionysus push, and it's probably not Weuler either.

So for me... if we do Dio today and Dio flips scum, this is the order

Myself, AV, Weuler town

WS- Possible scum counter wagon to mine
KT, CCGeek, NK15, Space- Possible Dio partners, in various orders.

At that point we will have some extra roles to be able to claim and possibly use to clear some people via a claiming method I will grab you from another newbie I played a dead ass long time ago.

But in my mind, if Dio scum, you can be nearly certain of AV and Weuler town. If Dio's town, I'll be alive tomorrow anyway to re-evaluate cause they won't shoot me.

Suddenly there's a tonal shift for some reason, as LLD makes a slightly uninformed post. I dealt with this in a previous post of mine that LLD never responded to. Don't know if this was intentional or not, but this seems way out of line for the supposed SE LLD. Weirdly however, this is not the first time a misinformative post has been made by her, see: my second comment in this post.

____________________________________________________

Spoiler: More NAI Aggression, slightly desperate

Survivalism is not a scum tell.

Using it as the only reason to continue your scum read against me is a scummy continuation read from a former LHF who you could say practically anything about and be fine, and now it's harder.

As it happens... I'm sorry your easy town elimination suddenly morphed into Me, but.... adapt or perish.

You're calling me scrambling to find an elimination that isn't me, but Survivalism is not a scum tell.

Of course I'm being aggressive and seeking scum this rapidly when my neck is on the line and there are less than 2 days remaining in the day.

When players at the beginning of the day told "eh we will just kill your slot anyway" and sought to maintain apathy.

Of course I'm going to make moves to shake up that paradigm and protect myself from dying while killing someone I think is scum.

It's not "Scrambling" or.. Scrabbling? It's survivalism and it's a Non Alignment Indicative trait.

You're calling me scrambling to find an elimination that isn't me, but Survivalism is not a scum tell.

Of course I'm being aggressive and seeking scum this rapidly when my neck is on the line and there are less than 2 days remaining in the day.

When players at the beginning of the day told "eh we will just kill your slot anyway" and sought to maintain apathy.

Of course I'm going to make moves to shake up that paradigm and protect myself from dying while killing someone I think is scum.

It's not "Scrambling" or.. Scrabbling? It's survivalism and it's a Non Alignment Indicative trait.

By all means be aggressive. But you haven't been seeking scum. You've been hounding me just because I had a firm read on your predecessor. That's literally what made you target me. If you're town and you manage to get me out today, you're gonna be so embarrassed. It'll be nice to see!

Except this is a misrepresentation.

I began on NK15, gave reads on AV, WS, KT and Space individually and then sought out the WS wagon to view some more reads for future depending on if I was right or wrong about you.

I've literally done nothing but hunt for scum since I arrived.

Attempting to represent that as only hounding onto you for being suspicious of me is not only catagorically false, it's also likely argued from a place of frustration because you felt strongly you had my slot dead to rights and now you're on the ropes.

These reactions you are giving to the status quo shifting are not townie, for the record.

CCGeek, I'm also in a heavily suspected slot.

I expect if Dio flips scum, I'll be shot for being dangerous and more or less proven town.

If Dio flips town though, it'll mean I, knowing I'm a townie, and scum who know I'm town, will not likely shoot me because they believe they can get me miseliminated.

I get I'm competent and skilled but as long as I'm suspicious, being shot is a lower possibility.

That's all the line was trying to say. The post was trying to setup for the world I think we are in where Dio is scum and I die tonight and leave you all behind my reads.

If Dio is town, I think I won't die and I'll have time to re-evaluate and restate my opinions anyway so I only need to leave a Will for the first scenario.

Lady town and KT scum is an interesting thought

If KT scum, do you not think Dio scum naturally follows?

A lot of people have that connection built, do you disagree?

You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.

You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself

and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.

BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.

Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.

You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself

and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.

BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.

Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.

Interesting that you ignored me but have something to say to NK15 here.

Why do I need to talk to you? At this point I'm fairly convinced you are scum, so what would I be convincing you of?

I'm talking to OTHER people, not you. I don't gain anything from responding directly to you. I will prove your points wrong and sell my points to people I think are town.

Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.

I'm not willing to lim Dio if the alternative is you.
It doesn't make sense. Why should I lim an unclaimed suspect when I have a claimed suspect? Especially when that claimed suspect is trying to get the unclaimed suspect to Intent?
So... you haven't addressed that obvious BS on Campbell yet. Why did you write that?

Because it's true? Just from reading his posts he clearly had 0 concept what he was doing and 0 direction or intent with it despite trying to solve the game desperately.

You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.

You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.

Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself

and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.

BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.

Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.

Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?

Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.

Interesting that you ignored me but have something to say to NK15 here.

Why do I need to talk to you? At this point I'm fairly convinced you are scum, so what would I be convincing you of?

I'm talking to OTHER people, not you. I don't gain anything from responding directly to you. I will prove your points wrong and sell my points to people I think are town.

What an odd reply...? Nobody needs to respond to anyone, but ignoring someone when they make a very valid point is, uh, scummy. If the situation was reversed you would be all over me for this.

Your point ISN'T valid... and you're scum, so anything you say is intended to kill me... which you're trying to do.

hmm. this wagon appeared out of nowhere a couple of pages ago. do people think it's pure?

In my opinion? Yeah, probably.

There's no need to bus here for scum, they could just kill me.

I know I'm town, so it makes people who are willing to swap less likely to be doing so for the sake of a scum incentive.

Because I know it's not a scum player swapping to save a scum player.

NK15 out here explicitly trying to rolefish and kill me for being VT.

Hey, Dio is at L-1, and hasn't claimed a town power role. Guess what that means, NK15?

i don't think i want to vote dionysus today, i think there are far worse slots tbh

we don't have time for another counter wagon, also Dio's scum.

A very large chunk of posts. Despite what I say on the spoiler tag, these are relatively townie for LLD. I still do not 100% buy the Fred defence.
_________________________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: Following interactions w STD

Like, STD, saying what you're saying is effectively setting up to vote on someone you called town like 5 posts ago.

There's no space to do anyone but Dio or I today at this point.

like STD if you vote me here over Dio it's literally a scumclaim after you called me town not 5 posts ago

LLD what the heck i didn't say i was voting for you lol

I mean, okay but how can we have any space to switch it this late in? The two dunderheads are never not voting me and you would need to gather 4 other troops for another wagon

No scum motives for these, really. (I now get what Dio meant by LLD is rude - no offense lol)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: The "inexperienced" fiasco

i mean it just means i'm in a pickle

pedit: are you crucifying LLD for not knowing Fredrick was SE? what am i looking at?

They're hopping on my use of the word inexperienced to describe how Frederic played like he didn't know what the fuck he was doing. Which I think is a pretty fair description? To be honest?

It's.... it's ridiculous.

Another thing that gave me pause. The points about FAC possibly being inexperienced at scum under D1 pressure were possibly valid. Also, as a sub, LLD should very well know that FAC was a SE.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Spoiler: LLD Final D1 posts

What gets me most, STD, is I kind of doubt both NK15 and Dio can be scum here together anymore because if they are they're literally losing when I flip town. They both die back to back after that, so...

It's time to hammer

They'll have time to digest overnight. Unless you have anything else to say?

Townie progression of reads, and the rest is quite NAI.

That's it for D1.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Day 2

Spoiler: The Early Mechanic Discussion

In this situation... We should do the following.

If the remaining power role is a friendly neighbour, they should simply claim at this point.

Otherwise, I think we let the doctor or JK try their hand one more night from anon and work around it for today. Especially if it is jk/roleblocker

Actually.... We need to know if we are in the JK world or not the absolute most.

There might be a way to.... Organize a claim in such a way...

Possibly

Basically JK worlds provide possible false info. And scum know what world we are in.

My thoughts are that we proxy claim jailkeepers. Everyone claims JK wnd who they targetted N1. That way... We can have more info.

That is such bad logic. FN is not better than a IC right now and is actively worse if we run them up today or they get shot tonight.

FN should claim as help us as an IC today.

Doctor can claim too, it's probably fine but JK proxy claims where no one knows who the real JK is is the only way to do that safely.

NK, are you like... Bad at mafia or just scum?

Like its polarizing for me, because if you genuinely don't get this, saying ad such is a town tell.

But if you are clever enough to get proxy claims, resistance to them is a scum tell.

Bruh, they won't know who to RB because everyone proxy claims. It's just an additional info claim for possible use later.

Additionally, FN claim is always correct. Its ALWAYS WRONG TO ALLOW FN TO SIT ON THEIR INFO INSTEAD OF CLEARING.

FN is arguably MORE USELESS THAN DOCTOR HERE. all they do its tell others at night that they are town. They don't solve any bonus townies. They are a literal IC who possobly could have targetted scum last night and scum could be killing them tonight. It's high odds.

If you are okay with doctor claiming FN shouls be claiming too.

If FN is NK'd without being able to give their thoughts and lead town, it's a total waste.

IC's use is best used to lead confused towns

Like Doctor and FN are the same role at this point except Doctor could theoretically save a kill if he didn't claim.

All FN does is tell other playera they are town. Which can be scum. Which can get them killed.

So being okay with Doctor claiming and NOT FN claiming is fucking weird.

I'm severely rolling my eyes at "not all IC's are good leaders" my dude.

My brother in christ.

They are by definition useful leaders because if they are bad enough to be strung up it removes a free push for scum and they can direct discussion and jf they are good enough to lead they are already in a good spot to use it.

This logic of yours is pointless.

Half the point of the JK proxy claim is to see who would target what, and use that to read them in later days.

Like... Are you seriously this backwards.

The scum have an RB and a kill each night in JK world. They will chip away at the odds eventually. There are 7 of us left, 2 of us are scum so among 5 targets they get a 40 % chance at it anyway.

Night1 JK target does inform us a decent amount if you can reaso. Who is likely yo make kills from what scum pairing and logically sort yhat way.

In general you are denying information on ALL fronts.

FN and Doctor are equally useless in terms of power and the only reason to hide them would be if you think they don't die tonight.

Except, again... 5 townies alive . in that world they rolecopped one of them, 4. They shoot and rolecop another tonight, assuming we don't hit the role cop today.

That's bad bad bad odds that FN or Doctor kice through tonight. A doctor save hard clears 2 people, is the worth of it. Not about the numbers about cleared townies.

Doctor has more value than FN does to not claim. Doctor could clear an additional townie.

If anyone missed it, LLD brought up this method in D1, the proxy-claim and the anti-NK logic all make sense @ town!LLD. Scum!LLD incentives are missing yet again.

Spoiler: Aurorus' take

Weuler what’s your read on CCG?

NK/LLD do you have any non-mechanics things you’d like to pick up on? Do either of you think the mechanics talk is alignment indicative at this stage?

———

Just to try to put the mechanics stuff to bed asap and as clearly as possible, can anyone who has any view on claims complete the following for your opinion:

Doc: claim / don’t claim
JK: claim / don’t claim / claim by proxy*
FN: claim / don’t claim / wait and see**

*LLD’s idea of each person saying who they “jailed”

**by which I mean, if the FN is already happy with how the day is developing, claiming may not be necessary

Eg for me -

Doc: don’t claim
JK: claim by proxy
FN: wait and see

Wait and see is terrible, because it just informs scum and not town and ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

In what way??

Scum know what world we are in because they know which roles they have.

So if we do wait and see it fully informs their shots, based on the suspicions of the players who are in the game. It near guaranteeeees that we're seeing our PR flop up dead tomorrow without being of any use to us.

Also town.

Spoiler: The KT shot discussion

Regardless, your description of what happened between the person who was pushing me to die when I joined the game and I is.... very incomplete and at best a fairly weak shot. It feels almost like you expect it will be called out for being generally empty as a comment, which you sort of cover iwth the "what did you expect" part of your reads list.

But it's empty all the same. You're criticizing me for choosing not to directly engage, one time, with a person who not only did I think was scum but also was the ONLY AVAILABLE COUNTERWAGON TO ME.

You're using the same bad arguments others used to push Frederic, and notably, here's a little tidbit for you.

Does scum LLD shoot the player she invited to this website who has a SOLID TOWNREAD on her slot over night? Cause the KT shot wasn't a tracker hunting shot, it was N1, there's no info or other tells that KT was a power role.

KT was shot for being townie and for being RIGHT. What was he right about, I wonder? What elimination would he have opposed today, do you think?

Even if you think KT would have re-evaluated on me, isn't it better for me to shoot someone who was shown to like...not be willing to listen to me?

How about the person who hard thought I was scum until I said that Dio and he couldn't BOTH be scum here, at which point he called me town... and then walked into today with a vote on me again.

You don't think I shoot that player and try to reason with KT, AV and STD, all players who I have respect from and for and could possibly sell on me being town and giving me a shot?

Cause if I'm scum here, I'd take that one day, kill a townie, shoot one of them in their face, and eat my rope tomorrow.

and that's 5:2 today, 4:2 3:2 after that plan

3:1 after they finally kill me

2:1 after the night kill, and I setup my partner in ELO to win the game for us without a whole lot of connectives.

The KT kill is the SINGLE worst choice for me as scum in this position, it's nonsensical.

Like, anyone who is scumreading me at this point needs to strongly consider why the fuck scum!LLD shoots KT in the face over any of the slots way more suspicious of me and/or willing to kill me.

Like Weu who ended the day voting me, or NK15, who was so very clearly going to default back to me after calling me town yesterday.

If you can't give an answer to that that isn't "for this WIFOM, obviously" which... given how few votes are in the town today.... terrible argument, then you lack real situational reads on me.

I'm just not scum here, because I never shoot KT here.

Bonus thought for people who think "well, what if you thought KT would flip on you and call you scum today?"

A casual reminder that the same thing that initially damned me here, being a replacement, is what saves me when it comes to KT. KT didn't town read me, though they did find me town. They initially strongly town read my PREDECESSOR. Someone who, I think we can all admit has a lot less capability for subterfuge.

KT would have to backtrack on BOTH those independent reads to flip on me today.

There's no WIFOM value to shooting them, it's better to have them alive to protect me. There's no role hunting value, I mean.... there's no real clues beyond KT being town.

KT was VERY obviously town, but that only lends itself to why they could have led me into a better spot today being alive, if I were scum.

The math, the situational game, the current position, none of it makes sense for an LLD!Scum killing KT.

I feel like LLD cutting off "WIFOM" as an option is something i've done as scum before to try and get ahead of an argument. i have to think about this a little bit.

i feel like inviting him to the site doesn't matter if you're playing the game you're going to go for it. if you suspected KT of being a PR you would go for it regardless of how much you knew them. if you wanted to get rid of a highly tr player you would go for it. if you wanted to strategically set up a WIFOM argument only to knee cap it right away, you would go for it. i get that it seems unlikely but there are reasons for it and i can't disregard them without at least thinking about them.

My dude if I suspected him of being a PR I double wouldn't shoot him with his Fredericbtownread.

I'd pocket that mofo.

This isn't a situation where the end result is in question. It's a combination of factors. He knows me + he town read my predecessor hard + he town read me hard. It's so easy to have him live 1 more day, kill a townie, shoot him tonight and then win off that.

Like have a little respect for my simply that I wouldn't say myself up to me on the verge of elimination two days in a row

A very interesting thing here is that, as I said before, the KT shot could be used against LLD? Well, this makes scum!arko possible here.

Spoiler: Aggression with Analysis

Regardless, your description of what happened between the person who was pushing me to die when I joined the game and I is.... very incomplete and at best a fairly weak shot. It feels almost like you expect it will be called out for being generally empty as a comment, which you sort of cover iwth the "what did you expect" part of your reads list.

But it's empty all the same. You're criticizing me for choosing not to directly engage, one time, with a person who not only did I think was scum but also was the ONLY AVAILABLE COUNTERWAGON TO ME.

You're using the same bad arguments others used to push Frederic, and notably, here's a little tidbit for you.

Does scum LLD shoot the player she invited to this website who has a SOLID TOWNREAD on her slot over night? Cause the KT shot wasn't a tracker hunting shot, it was N1, there's no info or other tells that KT was a power role.

KT was shot for being townie and for being RIGHT. What was he right about, I wonder? What elimination would he have opposed today, do you think?

Even if you think KT would have re-evaluated on me, isn't it better for me to shoot someone who was shown to like...not be willing to listen to me?

How about the person who hard thought I was scum until I said that Dio and he couldn't BOTH be scum here, at which point he called me town... and then walked into today with a vote on me again.

You don't think I shoot that player and try to reason with KT, AV and STD, all players who I have respect from and for and could possibly sell on me being town and giving me a shot?

Cause if I'm scum here, I'd take that one day, kill a townie, shoot one of them in their face, and eat my rope tomorrow.

and that's 5:2 today, 4:2 3:2 after that plan

3:1 after they finally kill me

2:1 after the night kill, and I setup my partner in ELO to win the game for us without a whole lot of connectives.

The KT kill is the SINGLE worst choice for me as scum in this position, it's nonsensical.

Like, anyone who is scumreading me at this point needs to strongly consider why the fuck scum!LLD shoots KT in the face over any of the slots way more suspicious of me and/or willing to kill me.

Like Weu who ended the day voting me, or NK15, who was so very clearly going to default back to me after calling me town yesterday.

If you can't give an answer to that that isn't "for this WIFOM, obviously" which... given how few votes are in the town today.... terrible argument, then you lack real situational reads on me.

I'm just not scum here, because I never shoot KT here.

Bonus thought for people who think "well, what if you thought KT would flip on you and call you scum today?"

A casual reminder that the same thing that initially damned me here, being a replacement, is what saves me when it comes to KT. KT didn't town read me, though they did find me town. They initially strongly town read my PREDECESSOR. Someone who, I think we can all admit has a lot less capability for subterfuge.

KT would have to backtrack on BOTH those independent reads to flip on me today.

There's no WIFOM value to shooting them, it's better to have them alive to protect me. There's no role hunting value, I mean.... there's no real clues beyond KT being town.

KT was VERY obviously town, but that only lends itself to why they could have led me into a better spot today being alive, if I were scum.

The math, the situational game, the current position, none of it makes sense for an LLD!Scum killing KT.

Honestly this logic only comes from town no scum is ever this in the weeds about this ever.

Cool. So 2 of AV STD NK and Weu?

STD/NK seems viable.

Weu is probbbbably just town honestly. Probably willing to bet the game on it.

AV/STD feels a little disconnected.

But AV being unwilling to do NK yesterday leaves a connection there.

So AV/NK or STD/NK either way I should push for NK to die?

If you do decide to kill me today, kill NK tomorrow then decide between STD and AV. Day 1 will be your guide there IDK.

It's obviously better if we do NK today first because then you have the extra elimination, but whether people are willing to give me that is another question.

Like at this point for me Weu Aklo and CCG can all be town and its 2 of the other 3. If that 3 I listed are all town and can find me as town, the game is over and we win because we have one miselimination.

Process of elimination, Process of elimination, And also just your god-awful Meta-Defense, your play last day, and your predecessor. Also, Hitting the one out of the ones I'm trying to say is town at a lower degree than the confirmed one? I mean It's not hard to see why, but either way, probably saying that got your grave dug, no matter your alignment, due to calling out 3 people as possible scum, with one of the people most town out of them being the common link, Either you get absolutely beat to death as mafia by town, or you get scum-hammered very, very quickly as town.

My dude, at this point do you even really think I'm scum or is this an ego check for you?

Like I'm trying REALLY hard not to just say "kay when I flip town kill Aklo tomorrow" so you can learn your lesson about ego tripping in mafia. I'm supposed to be SE so I'll play more nice, but the truth is I am town and you aren't making a while lot of sense.

I do really think your scum, but of cause, you on either alignment gets beat to death today. Pointing that out. Anyways, If it ends up your town for some god-forsaken reason somehow, we can go from there.

This is a bad way to play mafia.

I dont necessarily die today. Infact if I was willing to pretend I thought you were scum I could probably kill you over me today.

I've done it before. And scum will be on board because I'll be perma suspicious tomorrow.

So between the two of us, right now, you are the one making an error.

Been struggling with it all day. Even last night, the post I made before I went to bed. I have a massive townread on you but I feel somewhat obligated to push you because it's my only survival out and I don't trust your reading skills alive tomorrow because you'll probably kill Weu for some reason

Because if I remove You CCG and myself from the picture, and look at the reminaing 4

1) Weu has no real buddy connections I can mark, i.e a AV/Weu team seems the most likely of those 4 pairings and even that seems hard to gather.
2) Weu has been actively solving in a way a lot of other players haven't
3) Weu has been acting without much agenda on both yesterday and today, including in posts like him clarifying whether he ended the day on me or not, and unvoting me when I asked for it, but then considering the wagons.

Weu to me reads as town. Am I 100% sure? No, but I'm sure enough that if I killed NK and he flipped scum and killed AV and he flipped town, then I'd always kill STD over Weu. And same for any other pairing in order. I cannot and do not see myself every thinking Weu more scummy than any of those 3, and since we only have 1 miselim it's important to consider those metrics.

then, AV/STD is suuuuuper disconnected. Their interactions DO NOT read like scum/scum so I'm left with NK being the common link the scum worlds I think can exist and then having one of the other two connected to him, which are both decent partner ships since one of them directly deflected from the other dying (AV) and the other's interactions with NK have been limited almost on purpose (STD).

This segment of posts and some of the larger chunks I spoilered are making me lean aggressive town on LLD.

I did not go over some attacking posts/extremely recent posts here, but they really don't do much to alter my:

CONCLUSION

Townleaning. There are some iffy parts in the entire ISO, but I'm willing to take the risk. My first time actually trying to gamesolve, and my gut is telling me that town!LLD is what we're experiencing right now.

[CCGeek]

ignore the bad dash formatting, I typed this in windows notepad.

[CCGeek]

no way

[CCGeek]

I saw STD from a mile away but AV? Damn.

[CCGeek]

D1 towncred too stronk

[CCGeek]

I thought KT was friendly neighbour cos he kept saying “hi” lol

And CCG cos he kept saying “brother”

LOL that wasn't even intentional

[CCGeek]

Yeah AV only fucked up at the end causing him to even be voted once (If he didn't, they'd just have cruised by either day 3 or 4 to victory, but town fucked up even with his misplay)

I just noticed another something:

STD reasons:
(1) never really seems to give many reads
(2) weird weuler vote d1
(3) weird arko vote d2
(4) yes the KT NK could be part of this
(5) if LLD is scum then yes there’s the historic Fred-WS pairing
(6) I can’t negate any pairings
(7) no one really seems to be pushing him except me; either I’m totally wrong or scum don’t want to go after their buddy
(8) how many posts does he make that say he’ll come and post something useful later…
(9) weuler saying LLD+std but then never really pushing std (scum by association)
(10) ott reaction (“third degree”)

Also yes it was meant for to be a bit theatrical, mainly because I came up with a clever play on words and I was proud of myself.

———

But. I mean yeah. The post about arko’s iso is kinda compelling.

And I’ve just isod std and there is more content there than I remember.

Argh. My head is getting a little mashed.

———

These sorts of contradictory posts do be sus, esp in ELo

[CCGeek]

also

@mod no redactions in PT

, it's basically a slew of information from the first 5 pages, which I didn't quite have the energy to update and then onwards I began posting this kind of posts in the main game thread itself.

[CCGeek]

Good-Mediocre Mafia absolutely wrecked our town despite the misplays though, I have to say. holy shit we failed this.

Also STD claiming to check ISOs later, etc. is always always more likely than not coming from scum. Not sure how yall missed that.

[CCGeek]

Like, this game should in no way have ended D2. With all the info we had.

[CCGeek]

*typo yeah, D3. This should always have gone into 3p ELo.

[CCGeek]

Also I definitely misplayed by revealing you, or am I wrong in that.

Not a misplay per se but I would've preferred it if I hadn't been revealed until a bit later, also the way you revealed was. Slightly suspicious asw.

[CCGeek]

Indeed