Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)
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Page 9 is just weird. Weuler omgus votes Aureal for "solving" him/Human and Human then votes for Weuler on page 10 saying "there isn't anyone more suspicious to me right now" even though he tr'd Weuler just a few pages before this?
It feels like I'm looking at these early interactions with the idea that Weuler/Human could definitely be wolves together and I'm not sure if that is making these things look scummy or if they just are-
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I have to take a break for now but I will continue my refresh later-
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I think you might be right here, but if Weuler flips town then I think it's probably just Human/x because like I said earlier I don't see Cat flipping wolf if Weuler doesn'tIn post 1279, furtiveglance wrote: Like I said earlier, I think Weuler/Catboi/Human has 2 Mafia-
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I like a lot of what cat is posting today so I want to reverse out of my Weuler/Cat tunnel for now and try to view the game in a different light. I want to look more into the Human/furtive slots and how they have interacted this game so this post might be long
Spoiler: Human/HS
Spoiler: Human/Freedom
Spoiler: Human/furtive
These are all the interactions I could find between these two slots. This post took me like 2 hours lol
Pedit: Weuler now thinking Cat is town? The timing on this is so weird now. My gut reaction is to not like this from Weuler but I'm also starting to townread Cat a little after it has become pretty clear that he is actively trying to solve this game. So idk how to feel about this.
I still lean Weuler today tbh but after this analysis I'm much less convinced in my Weuler/Cat team. It could just as easily be Human/furtive if Weuler flips town-
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Weuler can you elaborate why you thought HS/Freedom were scummy? I skimmed your ISO and couldn't find it. There were these posts though...
In post 219, Weuler wrote: I think HS makes a solid entrance and with some interesting pointsIn post 488, Weuler wrote: Freedom, one of the few things your predecessor did was to townread black, what do you think about that read?In post 490, Weuler wrote: Some thoughts about the inactives (or previously inactives)
Arko: Aside from a few brief reads he hasn't really contributed at all. In 2108 a scum did something similar, promising reads "soon" every time they posted. I really don't like this.
Freedom/HS: HS townread Human and Black, cast suspicion on Aureal, Elements, and me then disappeared. Not sure how to interpret that. I expected a bit more from HS's successor, and I hope they provide some more of their thoughts soon.
It doesn't look like you ever thought they were scummy or at least you didn't mention it? When asked who you want to lim, HS/Freedom wasn't on your listIn post 520, Weuler wrote:
One of STD, You, Arko or Black. Do you want me to specify further?In post 518, Elements wrote:
If we had to lim right now, who would you want it to be?In post 510, Weuler wrote:
That remains to be seen, there is still lots of daytime leftIn post 508, Elements wrote:
You want to lim Black over StD or Freedom?In post 501, Weuler wrote:
Are you asking if votes have a purpose other than for limming?In post 499, Black wrote: No, but I don't get it. What are you two trying to pressure me to do?-
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Also you recently said Arko was scummy but in 723 you said Arko's behavior was NAI??-
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I just looked at your iso and you haven't really made a Weuler case at all? You've said it over and over again that he's scummy but the only evidence you're giving is his meta from another game and the fact that he's linked with Elements/CatIn post 1330, furtiveglance wrote: I explained a few times and even quoted posts from previous games.
Aureal, what are your current reads?
If you are this confident in the read could you point out specific scummy things from Weuler this game?-
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Why am I scumreading this?In post 1331, usesPython wrote:
Right well since it's looking like general consensus is that Human/Furtive and catboi/Weuler are the top scumteams for pretty much everyone the solution seems obvious.In post 1324, catboi wrote: 2. I've seen town do silly things before and when it only takes one wrong vote to lose anything can happen
Aureal, Black, Human, Furtive; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Human/Furtive today and they flip town that we consider catboi/Weuler as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?
Aureal, Black, catboi, Weuler; with the understanding that town perspectives are dominant now and wont be come 5p ELO, are you willing to enter a pact with me that if we flip either of Weuler/catboi today and they flip town that we consider Human/Furtive as the scumteam and flip them in 5p ELO and 3p ELO?-
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I don't think planning out the eliminations is the best idea. We can just do this logically without some pact. I'm ok with either Weuler or furtive/Human today but I would like to hear more from Weuler and Human before we do anything-
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I just want to say that if it is Human/Weuler then Aureal should get MVP
In post 1271, Black wrote:In post 96, Aureal wrote: Okay, I've solved, it's Human and Weuler. GG all, especially Taly and Human Sequencer.
Like what if Aureal was just right here? Why did this solve leave Human speechless?In post 97, Human wrote: I don't know what to say here
I have some time to go through the thread rn so I'm going to try to get a fresh perspectiveIn post 1277, Black wrote: Page 9 is just weird. Weuler omgus votes Aureal for "solving" him/Human and Human then votes for Weuler on page 10 saying "there isn't anyone more suspicious to me right now" even though he tr'd Weuler just a few pages before this?
It feels like I'm looking at these early interactions with the idea that Weuler/Human could definitely be wolves together and I'm not sure if that is making these things look scummy or if they just are-
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If Human flips town then it's probably just Weuler/Cat right? It would make sense for wolf!cat to try to distance here and make sure Human flips after Weuler
The Cat flipflop here is completely throwing me off. They had a whole towncase of Weuler and went through the game in-depth, now suddenly a couple of interactions with Human (some of which were already brought up earlier) is enough to turn it all around?-
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This makes a lot of sense tbh. I can't be sure this actually went down in your brain or not but I do understand your perspective hereIn post 1357, catboi wrote: 2. In the process of going onn on furtive and arguing with him I got the sense ofah crap, maybe he really believes what he's saying. This is very hard to explain and it's kind of different from the logic-based play I was leaning on earlier but it hails back to my origins, in live chat mafia. In that setting the game was very fast paced and based around live interactions. Sometimes I would go off on someone and in the process of arguing come to realize they were town. And that's kind of what happened here with regard to furtive's responses. It's possible I'm a sucker who backed down too easily but I got the feeling he was being genuine with what he said, if he fooled me on that good job I guess. But I didn't get the sense he was worried I was clawing away the game from him.-
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Please don't rush the day. I'm really busy this weekend so I won't have much time to contribute yet-
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Ok so quick thoughts while I have as second. We did well flipping Weuler and his flip tells us a lot, but losing the 2nd PR is honestly crazy
Aureal is probably town. This has been my strongest TR all game and she hasn't really done anything to make me think she's a wolf. The one thing that did concern me was her lurky nature but I think that's just her playstyle. And to assume she is lurky wolf I would have to assume she's lying about being sick which I think would be a lame move. When she's here she's actively solving and trying to find wolves. She pointed out scummy stuff from Weuler early and didn't really let up all game. This doesn't seem like a winning strategy from scum at all and it doesn't make sense to me with how hard it would be to pull off
HS/Freedom/Furtive slot was tough to read for most of the game due to just the general inactivity but with the Weuler flip I think furtive just has to be town. Again I could see an ultimate bussing situation or whatever but he was probably the hardest person pushing for Weuler and he argued extensively against Catboi's "Weuler towncase". I saw this slot possibly being scum with Human but that's impossible now so I'm comfortable calling this slot town atm
Elements/Catboi has been my #1 association with Weuler this game and Catboi's immediate defense of Weuler when he joined the game plus his big towncase on him felt weird. It got even weirder when he did a complete 180 and decided to go against Weuler while simultaneously trying his best to link Weuler with Human. I saw that as him setting up a way to flip a potential town!Human after Weuler died. I agree with the Human/Weuler opinion though and I think catboi legit looked like he was trying to solve this game for a little bit there. This slot really confuses me and I think it could be wolf or town
Human is the other possible wolf slot in this game to me. And I think he might be more likely than cat but it's pretty close in my mind. Human had some early weird early game interactions with Weuler that feel off when looking back on them. Then the end of D1 thing where Human had the weird declaration that Weuler was the best elimination, then unvoting/voting StD right before the deadline, then apologizing for it because "we could have flipped Weuler" or something like that. This moment stuck with me and part of me wants to go this route to see if Aureal called it way early on
So if I'm going to assume Aureal and furtive are town then what is the win condition here? Flip Human/Cat. We just win if they are wolf. If Human/Cat is town then the wolf kills Aureal/furtive/me. It's wolf vs. two likely town slots and we vote the wolf and win
This plan fails if furtive or Aureal are somehow playing a wolf game that I just think is really hard to pull off. Not impossible but this is has to be the best win condition from my perspective. I think I'm more comfortable going Human today but Cat is fine with me too-
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The logic about Meg's reads makes sense to me and I had kinda forgotten about it. I can see an angle where newscum Human and newscum Weuler felt threatened by the accuracy of the reads and wanted to get rid of the threat. But then why would Human and Weuler keep you alive Aureal? That part doesn't really add up to me the more I think about it. If Human is a wolf then you solved them before Meg. I guess you had backed off a little? Or it could have just been the PR guess like you said...I don't really know
Human saying that Meg was the target because she was a replacement seems like a weird conclusion to reach. Almost like he was trying to think of a reason that wasn't "she wants to flip us"
I have a hard time reading furtive v Cat because of the emotion involved. Idk why but my gut wants to read the frustration and anger as town even though it's probably NAI-
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I feel like this is even more possible evidence of Human getting rid of a threat if he is a wolf. If we stick with this plan then there's no way for Weuler/Human to win unless I'm missing something. I guess catboi/Weuler don't win in python's plan either thoughIn post 1348, usesPython wrote: 1) Flip Weuler
2ai) If Weuler flips scum, flip catboi
2aii) If catboi flips town, flip Human
2b) If Weuler flips town, flip a Human/furtive scumteam-
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It just has to be Human or Cat here in my eyes. My gut has been telling me Human
VOTE: Human-
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This is how I feel about CatIn post 1459, furtiveglance wrote: Human being scum is possible, but less likely for me.
Human thinks it might be Cat, but Cat thinks Human is probably town. If Cat is wolf here then doesn't it make sense for him to push Human? Like why would he back off and start to tr him? Or are we getting into WIFOM territory assuming scum will make the optimal play?-
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Ok but if Cat is wolf then he's going to have to reverse his stance on Human eventually or he loses. Unless he thinks he can get one of me/you/Aureal limmed instead-
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Well after a quick skim of cat's recent posts ig he is leaving the door open to flipflop on Human if he has to-
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You TR catboi?In post 1465, Human wrote: Thing is I TR everyone else if I were scum I would have to convince you all I’m town despite there being basically no other suspects as I said furtive/weuler doesn’t make much sense considering the slots aggression towards weuler-
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He said if he were scum he would have to convince us he's town despite there being no other suspects. I think he means he TRs cat which would be a weird development after you just said cat did the same thing for town points-
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Ohh ok, I understandIn post 1470, Human wrote: No after cat was eliminated-
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Cat, in your top quote I was responding to someone who was accusing me of trying to rush a Weuler lim. I wasn't making an excuse...I'm pretty sure Weuler was at e-1 when I first said I was down to see his alignment. I didn't vote because it would have ended the day and I'm always against doing that early
A lot of my Weuler reads have been interactional and behavioral and I'm not confident in those types of reads because they are wrong a lot. He felt real lurky and lacking depth I think is the best way to describe it but then he started to interact with people and asking questions like he was solving. I can't remember posts specifically but I can look in a sec. This plus one post he had saying his shallow playstyle was due to IRL stuff made me doubt my read more. I didn't want to assume he was lying and I thought I could sort the slot better if he kept providing more but I also didn't want to completely brush off the scummy stuff. After the Std flip and him doing absolutely nothing D2 it was pretty obvious he was more likely to be scum-
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In post 522, Weuler wrote: Definitely not Arko because he's being prodded. I need to look into STD more. So right now, you or Black. Probably you, because I did not at all like your chaotic acting earlier, followed by what I perceived to be a sudden drop in activityIn post 549, Weuler wrote: In my latest game STD and another player, AV, was the scum team. AV spent most of their time trying to convince people to lim stdIn post 582, Weuler wrote: The day is starting to run out and we do not want a rushed lim at the end of the day. Worst case scenario, our first push is a PR (happened in 2108) and then we need time to find a suitable new limee.
To the people voting for Arko: Are you willing to lim him d1 for being inactive? If not then switch your votes to someone you do want to lim.In post 633, Weuler wrote:
What does a hard guilty look like? Someone admitting they're scum?In post 631, Freedom wrote:
I haven't read up yet but I feel like this is a good point.In post 628, Black wrote: Literally your entire case against me is I'm not playing mafia how you think I should be playing. You're even making stuff up in your head to convince yourself I'm scummy like I spend time perfecting my posts and I moved on to easier targets. You're tunneling and it is blinding you
TBH maybe it's just that I've seen TvT playstyle clashes happen a lot, but I'm never going to vote Black or python unless there's a hard guilty.In post 662, Weuler wrote:
Are they the scum team by virtue of both being the scummiest, or by the interaction between them together with scumminess?In post 660, Elements wrote: I think the scum team is StD Freedom
I hadn't moved my vote in a while so I thought I'd move itIn post 695, Weuler wrote:
May I ask you to take a look at mid-late d1 weuler from our previous game? My irl situation is about the same right now as it was thenIn post 677, Save The Dragons wrote: Like they were a lot more driven and logical in the game I just played with them. More jokey too. Here they seem like "let's see what happens when I do this" and stiff and reservedIn post 707, Weuler wrote:
Ah I never got to experience d2 cactus thanks to certain peopleIn post 703, Elements wrote:
I can see similarities to day 2 cactus but I am wondering if it's because both their pfps are greenIn post 701, Weuler wrote:Do you?
I don't find d1 cactus and human to be alike at all
These were some of the posts I remember being a factor in my feelings about Weuler. It felt like his activity level and player interaction count was going up around this time. I have a hard time reading surface-level slots but once they show signs of opening up a little I feel more comfortable sitting back and reading them while they are doing soIn post 723, Weuler wrote: I'm liking the Meg slot so far and I think Arko's behaviour was NAI-
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I'd have to reread the game and decide which bus was more likely between Aureal and furtiveIn post 1488, Human wrote: Let's do a hypothetical since solves are clear what if the game suddenly turned nightless you flip catboi; town you flip me; town who do you flip next?-
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I just did a quick skim over both iso's and it could go either way. Furtive seemed more sure in Weuler's alignment in almost a guaranteed kinda way. It sorta gives me informed vibes in way that Aureal's stance on Weuler doesn't. Her progression on him ebbs and flows and feels more natural-
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I like the analysis and I'm ok with flipping cat or human today. I'd rather wait to see if Aureal has anything to add before hammering-
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Trying to figure out why wolves do what they do is the hardest part of this game for me. In this case though you have a good explanation for how wolves would pivot if they did make the mistake of voting together. We would just have to assume they would make that mistake to begin with. If Weuler is newscum then it doesn't seem that crazy of an assumptionIn post 1495, Aureal wrote: I did note that Weuler stayed on Save the Dragons for the rest of the day after voting there, despite also scumreading Elements. However, I think this can also have the alternate explanation that Weuler wanted to later push Elements for the bad wagon.
Consider the vote count here. Weuler has just decided that Python's push on Black is going nowhere and moved to join Elements in targeting Save the Dragons. They are now the only two on that wagon, and the only wagon with two people. Does scum really move to join their scum partner's vote here, trying to get a wagon going all on their own rather than hitch to a townie? Or is that why we think Elements bailed to vote Freedom all on her own shortly afterward, in a "wat u doin Weuler, this is bad scumplay" move?-
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Did you go through the Human/Weuler interactions? They are weirder than Weuler/Elements imo. Well, except for the catboi entrance and complete 180 on Weuler. That was pretty wild and I still haven't forgotten about thatIn post 1499, furtiveglance wrote: I think Human is just weirdchamp town at this point-
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Page 9 in particular I remember being really weird-
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Actually no, the more I think about Catboi's Weuler towncase and then him completely reversing and setting up a Weuler > Human flip order, idk if my interactions case would be considered weirder. I'm starting to think you might just be right-
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I could do a Human/Weuler case but it seems like a lot of work in a situation where I think we just win as long as we get rid of both-
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Ok, you win furtive. Now hopefully we both do
VOTE: Catboi-
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Well...I still think it's probably just Human. Cat seems pretty convinced it's furtive but idk. I need to take a deeper look at this game in the morning-
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Human if you are town then that was a weird move. If you're a wolf then it was very bold and it almost worked-
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If you really are town...who do you think the wolf is here?-
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I feel like your only win condition here if you are scum is to vote for me because you know I'm probably not voting for furtive...so I'm not really surprised by your answer-
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I've been pretty sure it was you and Weuler for like 20 pages now. Aureal was on to you too but you couldn't kill us both. Meg was on to you and so was python
As obvious as this seems for me I still don't think voting here is the correct play. I think furtive needs to talk because in the small chance he could be scum, voting you here would be gg-
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In post 1221, Human wrote: Thing is I don’t know at this point whether catboi or weuler is more sus it I’m not willing to take weuler to e-1 so
VOTE: Catboi-
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I still feel like this plan is what got python killed. A Human/Weuler scum team cannot win if we follow this planIn post 1348, usesPython wrote: Right now my current solve is pretty much the same as before but with a minor difference because the original didn't really care much beyond Weuler/catboi and Human/furtive scumteams:
1) Flip Weuler
2ai) If Weuler flips scum, flip catboi
2aii) If catboi flips town, flip Human
2b) If Weuler flips town, flip a Human/furtive scumteam
Reason I'd rather not flip Human or furtive first is twofold:
1. Human/furtive is the only non-Weuler scumteam I have so testing that first is optimal
2. catboi is self-admittedly a really good scum player. Given that the vibe of the thread went from town patting themselves on the back going "gg we caught Weuler/Elements" to a wall warzone where suddenly Human/furtive and Human/Weuler are viable pairs it's twigging my scum radar. I think catboi is a good enough scum player that I'd rather trust the reads I developed before they replaced in instead of risking getting sheeped, at least until those reads are proven wrong-
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And I feel like this is what got Meg killedIn post 691, MegAzumarill wrote: Human/Freedom and then after that Weuler are my preferred shots rn-
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Alright enough reading this before bed. Let's see what furtive thinks in the morning-
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I know, I'm just saying what I'm feeling. I can't prove you killed 3 of your main threats in a row but it seems that way atmIn post 1557, Human wrote: And NKA is a WIFOM battlefield
More WIFOM so I don't expect either of you to believe me here but it doesn't really make sense for me to kill python after the Weuler flip
I spent the last hour looking over the game trying to find any hint that furtive might be playing a deep wolf game here. All I could find was Freedom asking Meg why Weuler was scummy and then voting for Weuler right after
It just has to be Human here from my perspective. Furtive I think this one will come down to you-
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Human, in your first quote I was openly sheeping Aureal. If she had voted for Weuler instead of you I would have too
And I already explained my progression between your 2nd and 3rd quote. I felt Weuler was providing more and I was also wondering at the time if his IRL situation was causing him to play so shallow. I felt like StD was the better option after rereading-
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That's true. I didn't think about thatIn post 1562, Human wrote:
Weuler could have investigated PythonIn post 1561, Black wrote: More WIFOM so I don't expect either of you to believe me here but it doesn't really make sense for me to kill python after the Weuler flip-
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Well with that vote scum furtive can just win. So I don't see any reason not to VOTE: Human now-
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Furtive I don't think you are scum so I'm not sure what you want me to say to you. If you have any questions for me to help you solve then I'm an open book but otherwise I'm not going to towncase myself or scumcase Human even more than I already have-
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I think you should take your time and really give the thread another look. I'll check in periodically to answer any questions you might have-
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I don't think you "attacked" Weuler any more than me D1. The only difference is you voted for him and I didn't. You were only on the wagon for like a day but you definitely tried to use this against me early on...before we even knew Weuler was scum:
In post 577, Human wrote: The one thing is Black stayed off the Wagon everyone else was on this is what's keeping Black nullish to me instead of scummy.-
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Why did you consider this scummy when Weuler could have gone either way at this point?-
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Also you tried to save Weuler from elimination on D2 while I stated right from the jump that he's probably scum and our best lim option that day. I never faltered from this stance either. I could have been bussing here but if you want to point out not attacking Weuler then I have to bring this up because you're just as guilty-
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Human I think I read your quote wrong actually. You're saying I got town points for not jumping on the Weuler wagon so disregard #1574-
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I don't like this postIn post 1408, Human wrote: To be fair if I was scum and Aureal guessed the scumtean d1 and I was scum I would say she was trying to solve with too little info I don’t know though I’ve never been scum before-
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Wait are you saying I did read it right and you thought that me not joining the bandwagon made me scummy?In post 1578, Human wrote: Because I was suspicious of him?-
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In post 775, Human wrote: Makes logical sense although could be desperate scum the thing is I feel like the elements argument for the StD elimination is counterintuitive because he himself would give more information from an elimination so
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: ElementsIn post 782, Human wrote: Well, we wouldn't get much info from StD either but by meg's logic, I think Wueler is a good Idea sorry I have been a little aggressive and not thinking coming down to the deadline
UNVOTE: Elements
VOTE: Weuler
This progression is pretty obviously Human trying to make it seem like he's voting his partner while still trying to save him. The top two quotes were only 2 hours apart. I can just imagine what went down in the PT here.In post 879, Human wrote: Well I'm about to go to sleep and something needs to be done someone can hammer this if they want to
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: StD
It doesn't feel like a coincidence that Human's only evidence against me is that I didn't vote Weuler D1 because the plan was to always clear himself over "attacking" Weuler D1. In my opinion what you did by voting, unvoting, voting again, only to unvote right before the deadline was more scummy than me not voting him at all-
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That's not what the quote says? It says me not jumping on the wagon kept me null instead of in the scum category. So which is it?In post 1581, Human wrote: I was at the time explaining why I didn't fully town-read you.-
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To be fair I did too but I have an excuse: I didn't write it XD-
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Day 1:
Day 2:In post 879, Human wrote: Well I'm about to go to sleep and something needs to be done someone can hammer this if they want to
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: StDIn post 1221, Human wrote: Thing is I don’t know at this point whether catboi or weuler is more sus it I’m not willing to take weuler to e-1 so
VOTE: Catboi
Also Day 2, right before the hammer:In post 1242, Human wrote: Feeling weuler is scum right now; catboy is probably best for the next day even if weuler flips townFurtive I trust that you'll read through and make the best decision possible but I want to point this out in case you miss it. Human tried to save Weuler from elimination twice. I don't think this should be overlooked
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