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Post #924 (isolation #1) » Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:27 am
Postby furtiveglance »
I'll just comment on anything I find alignment indicative.
Spoiler: Page 1
Elements +town. Weuler's 11is uncharitable in a way that's possibly +scum.
Spoiler: Page 2
Human +town. Arko +scum. Black is a tough one to read.
Spoiler: Page 3
Aureal's posting is +scum. usesPython slightly +town.
Spoiler: Page 4
usesPython +town. Elements +town. Human's 2 PR comment: that's also sort of how I think of NewD3. I think Human's overreaction is +town. Black slightly +town. Aureal continues to look +scum.
Spoiler: Page 5
Human's reads and giving up are weird. It's +scum. Not sure how to reconcile my read on them overall.
Spoiler: Page 6
Arko's reads are +town even though I disagree.
Spoiler: Page 7
Elements and Black moving in towny ways. Python good read on Weuler, +town. Human trending down.
Spoiler: Page 8
Aureal +scum. Human Sequencer's entrance looks +town.
Spoiler: Page 9
Aureal's big post is making me question my read on her. I agree on Weuler.
Spoiler: Page 10
Aureal continues to confuse me. Black +town. STD entrance is ok
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Post #926 (isolation #2) » Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:34 am
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 925, Black wrote:
I'm curious about your Aureal read. I think she's my biggest TR and python never really explained why they thought she was scummy either
I thought the early posting was quite surfacey and jokey, that's it really.
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Post #944 (isolation #4) » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:15 am
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 943, Elements wrote:
Just to briefly clear up the hammer reasoning
I scumread StD over Weuler and StD had already claimed. I didn't want Weuler to claim and narrow the pool for who to kill.
I still think Weuler is probs town
I was going to push Meg today for the unvote on Weuler but guess I won't be doing that!
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Post #965 (isolation #6) » Sat Feb 18, 2023 2:13 pm
Postby furtiveglance »
My craptop crashed and I don't want to repeat myself, I'll just give the TLDR on pages 20-30
Elements looking scummy for votehopping and interaction with STD
Human getting townier for looking genuinely clueless and unpartnered with the thread/entire world
Aureal getting townier for charitable stance on Elements
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Post #966 (isolation #7) » Sat Feb 18, 2023 2:15 pm
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 943, Elements wrote:
Just to briefly clear up the hammer reasoning
I scumread StD over Weuler and StD had already claimed. I didn't want Weuler to claim and narrow the pool for who to kill.
I still think Weuler is probs town
I was going to push Meg today for the unvote on Weuler but guess I won't be doing that!
VOTE: python
This vote is just strange considering Weuler's stance on Elements. I think the natural thing to do if Elements was town or if Weuler/Elements was T/S would just be to omgus, but Elements sidesteps it and calls Weuler 'probs town' when I don't think Weuler's been towny at all
In post 464, usesPython wrote:
Slow burn gone though so:
Human, what's with the aggression in
In post 440, Human wrote:
No, he just replaced in why do you even have a read on guy who just entered the game
I feel like it is a bit quick to have a read on someone but elements is elements to be fair I did feel like elements was being dumb when I had made that post.
In post 465, usesPython wrote:
And as a follow up: why is it strange for Elements to have a read on Freedom already when his predecessor posted their reads already before replacing
Honestly fair
This all looks really aimless to me. Posting for posting's sake. I feel like if Human is Mafia, his partner hasn't given him any advice whatsoever, and it's easier for me to see Human as a complete noob just openly exploring the game.
What about his predecessors Human Sequencer and Freedom? Also I disagree on him not talking much yet; he's almost entirely caught up, posted a solve, and posted his reads on the people still alive.
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Post #984 (isolation #13) » Sat Feb 18, 2023 4:54 pm
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 983, Human wrote:
Whoa slow down man I'm hoping you actually have life unlike me anyway I feel like you are quite town with your progressions so far
All I'm seeing is Elements defending Weuler and pushing STD really hard
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Post #1008 (isolation #15) » Sun Feb 19, 2023 12:13 pm
Postby furtiveglance »
Game has slowed a bit so I'll put a vote down. I think Weuler and Elements are both scum, but after yesterday's vote Weuler needs to go. I also read a bit of 2109 and Weuler seems more energetic in that one.
Observation 1: Human Sequencer has posted in the past at specific times of day
Observation 2: Human Sequencer has not posted in this thread even at those specific times of day
Hypothesis 1: Something is preventing them from posting in this thread
Hypothesis 1a: RL is preventing them from seeing this thread -> Not posting is NAI
Hypothesis 1b: They have seen this thread and are choosing not to post -> Not posting is AI
Observation 3: This is not Human Sequencers first game (they're here as SE) -> They should know lurking is scummy behavior
Hypothesis 2: If they know lurking is scummy and they are scum, they would post so as to not seem scummy
Conclusion 1: If they are choosing not to post and they know lurking is scummy, it's because they are not interested -> They got a boring role (i.e. not scum and not PR)
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Post #1014 (isolation #17) » Sun Feb 19, 2023 4:42 pm
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 1013, usesPython wrote:
My vote is spiritually on Weuler right now, I'll give Elements like 24 hours before I vote/hammer Weuler to see if Elements comes up with any good arguments for a scumteam that isn't Weuler/Elements or Human/Furtive or Python/anyone (Seeing as I already consider the solve to be Weuler/Elements or Human/Furtive, and know I'm town)
This is giving me pause because it's not at all how I ever think about the game. Why have you decided there are only 2 possible scumteams? Why does each have 2 different members?
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Post #1018 (isolation #19) » Sun Feb 19, 2023 5:34 pm
Postby furtiveglance »
If you're sorting Elements as unpaired with anyone but Weuler because their play wouldn't 'make sense' otherwise, then you're wrongly assuming things about Elements as a player.
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Post #1020 (isolation #20) » Sun Feb 19, 2023 5:48 pm
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 1019, Aureal wrote:
Python, can you give us anything to rule out Black as possible scum other than your townread? I was kind of leery about how she broke for Dragons at the end of the day, like maybe trying to avert a Weuler elimination.
Furtive, you've played with Elements before, right? Anyone else here you're familiar with besides me?
Completed games it's just you, Elements, Meg, STD (rip in peace)
Saw a bit of 2109 as I said and Weuler is a lot scummier this game.
Saw a bit of 2109 as I said and Weuler is a lot scummier this game.
Yeah, that's what I figured. I realized that you're not being the aggressive hotshot here that I've seen before, but I think that's probably just because there's nobody here you feel the need to boss around like you did with Drew and Gimli in prior games. Elements and I don't seem the sort you'd bother with and obviously you're not going to have any rapport to attempt it with people you don't know.
In post 1023, usesPython wrote:
If I'm solving with the assumption of town!Aureal then Weuler flipping means the following:
1. Weuler flips scum, 1 miselim left
2. Flip Elements, if they flip scum then gg
3. If Elements flips town then 0 miselims left but Human/Furtive interactions in d1 no longer imply a Human/Furtive scumteam in which case flip Black
OR
1. Weuler flips town, 0 miselims left, Black trying to prevent the Weuler elim is no longer scum protecting scum so what exactly stops a tr on Black at that point?
I'm not really clear how 3 works, I gather something to do with the posts around 440? I've got COVID, can you break this down and make it easier for my tired brain to handle?
Sorry for playing badly in that Micro, but in my defence the game was quite inactive and it drove me to do dumb things.
The difference between this game and that Newbie is that my slot isn't under pressure at the moment
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Post #1043 (isolation #22) » Mon Feb 20, 2023 7:44 am
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 1041, Weuler wrote:
I want to point out that we lack information from the Furtive slot. If this day ends prematurely, then our mission tomorrow will be much harder
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Post #1066 (isolation #30) » Mon Feb 20, 2023 8:15 am
Postby furtiveglance »
Let me put it this way: Do you think we would unvote if Weuler claimed PR? I don't think I would. And in the case that we did, we'd pivot to Elements. So it still fits the same solve
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Post #1120 (isolation #35) » Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:54 am
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 1119, Human wrote:
You make a point but you have the same main suspicion as weuler, are defending weuler and your predecessor was suspected to be scum with weuler. I don't know what to make of this but I might just be stubborn trying to say I'm not wrong.
catboi is trying to use Python's theory of us together as a springboard to push me and pocket Python.
In post 1119, Human wrote:You make a point but you have the same main suspicion as weuler, are defending weuler and your predecessor was suspected to be scum with weuler. I don't know what to make of this but I might just be stubborn trying to say I'm not wrong.
I have the same main suspicion as Weuler? Last I checked, Weuler is voting
my slot
, so I think it's fair to say I do not share that suspicion!
Further, when I actually asked you to explain why you believe Weuler is scum, you completely dodged the question. I don't want to hear about how I'm defending Weuler because that's a pointless argument - I know I'm town so the whole thing falls apart, and at any rate one player defending hardly means both players are scum together.
You've said weuler has nothing good about his posts, can you elaborate at all on what you don't like about them?
Weuler voted Elements after being prompted to. He also said he was suspicious of me, which was your main scumread when you came in.
In post 1126, catboi wrote:
You literally asked me why I think Weuler is town and then immediately shut me down when I post a defense telling me that's not my job.
That was before you posted a two part wall where every line either contradicts itself or can be explained at least as compellingly with a scum!Weuler as with a town!Weuler game. Like even if I accepted every one of the posts there it's still not enough to call for a town read on Weuler while you're scumreading Furtive/Human and Furtive/Black for way less
This is insanely rude and wrongheaded, I think there's a substantial difference in how they're posting to the thread. I don't think what I'm scumreading them for is "way less", it's tuned to specific behaviors of what scum
actually do
. I can look at Weuler's posts and see someone who is actually trying to solve the game in a way I'm not getting with furtive or Human, and further I think furtive is blatantly not playing to his town meta and has almost no substance to his posts. The bar between furtive and Weuler is different because they're different players - I expect town-furtive to be playing analytically and have good thoughts, and his play here is exceptionally lazy.
Firstly, usesPython isn't being rude. Secondly, I'm flattered that you think I usually do more than this as town. The reason I'm not posting loads of analysis is because I don't think it's necessary - I replaced in and found the consensus in a similar place to my own reads, and I want to vote out Weuler. If you want to talk meta, Weuler's towngame in Newbie 2019 is drastically different to this one in content and style.
In post 1138, furtiveglance wrote:The reason I'm not posting loads of analysis is because I don't think it's necessary - I replaced in and found the consensus in a similar place to my own reads, and I want to vote out Weuler. If you want to talk meta, Weuler's towngame in Newbie 2019 is drastically different to this one in content and style.
or perhaps you found the gamestate convenient and favorable to you as scum and so are being lazy to avoid generating too much suspicion.
Regardless, I'll humor you -
how
is Weuler different from that game? You've made that point several times but never elaborated at all.
I think you're the one pocketing usesPython after you came in pushing their exact solve that doesn't include you. If I was scum, I'd just be parroting the consensus rather than pocketing a certain player.
Secondly, here's some posts that Town!Weuler made in Newbie 2109 that he hasn't come close to emulating here:
Spoiler: Town!Weuler
In post 462, Weuler wrote:
As I am the only town-player that knows for certain that claim 1 above is true, I mention that Consequence 3 given above can also be proven from the following modified claims:
Claim 1': STD is town.
Claim 2': If LLD is scum, then Weuler is not.
Claim 3': If AV is scum, then neither LLD nor Weuler are scum
This is possibly only of interest to STD, as they know whether they are town or not. Obviously I will not write out a motivation as to why Claim 2' or Claim 3' should be true, as they concern me being town. The point is that if you believe all these claims for whatever reason, then consequence 3 is still true.
In post 464, Weuler wrote:
Let's talk a bit about the people from Consequence 3.
CCG: As I mentioned in 451 I don't like their "passive" posts. As STD wrote in 459, CCG is mostly just posting information about the game instead of analysing.
Arko: Looking back at Space's ISO I don't find it too bad. I don't like Arko's top townreads though.
NK15: I don't have a good read here, but I don't townread NK. Not a lot of analysis done here either. If NK is scum, then a potential scum partner could be STD, as these slots have barely interacted.
In post 514, Weuler wrote:
Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)
I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.
Claim 2 and Claim 3 of 461. If you have reason to believe that one of STD/LLD, STD/AV, AV/LLD could be the scum pair, then please explain why. Consequence 3 hinges on Claim 2 and Claim 3 being true so if I have missed something here, please tell me.
Of course you can also critize Claim 1, but I already know that claim is true, so that's mostly for your own sake.
Newbie 2063 if you're ok with a game from 2021 where they were VT, other than that they've only played in Newbie 2108 (VT) and Newbie 2109 (VT) recently
The more I read the more I agree with myself, Weuler seems like quite a polarised player
In post 1115, furtiveglance wrote:
Catboi knows it's a lot easier to try and make town look scummy than scum look towny, so it's no wonder he talks as little as he can about Weuler.
This is a good point but kinda nullified by Catboi's extensive towncase on Weuler
In post 1115, furtiveglance wrote:
Catboi knows it's a lot easier to try and make town look scummy than scum look towny, so it's no wonder he talks as little as he can about Weuler.
This is a good point but kinda nullified by Catboi's extensive towncase on Weuler
What do you think prompted the big case
You already know I think it's just Weuler/Catboi here so this comment feels weird and pockety
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Post #1175 (isolation #48) » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:39 am
Postby furtiveglance »
I think we can agree that trying to defend/explain predecessors' posting is impossible, and I won't ask you to account for Elements' play either, catboi.
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Post #1180 (isolation #49) » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:52 am
Postby furtiveglance »
catboi's worldview doesn't make sense. he says his main read is that I'm scum, and therefore he doesn't think Weuler is aligned with me, but the reason for scumreading me is that I'm coasting along with the consensus, which only makes me scum if Weuler is town. So you have to townread Weuler first in order to scumread me. Does anyone get this, or am I waffling?
In post 1180, furtiveglance wrote:
catboi's worldview doesn't make sense. he says his main read is that I'm scum, and therefore he doesn't think Weuler is aligned with me, but the reason for scumreading me is that I'm coasting along with the consensus, which only makes me scum if Weuler is town. So you have to townread Weuler first in order to scumread me. Does anyone get this, or am I waffling?
They do townread Weuler in 1116 and 1117 though? Or am I missing something?
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Post #1196 (isolation #53) » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:59 am
Postby furtiveglance »
In post 1194, Weuler wrote:
Also I didn't like how Arko and Freedom played the furtive slot. I mentioned D1 that I didn't like this slot, and I am wondering whether this is a scum slot that has ended up in more capable hands now