Newbie 1038: Welcome to the Jungle! (Game Over!)

[LlamaFluff]

/confirm

Hello everyone, I am your IC for this game. That simply means that I have played quite a few games here on the site, and know how things work. I not only am here to play, but also to help you guys through any problems that you may have, and answer any questions about the game, theory, or anything you can think of.

I do have a question though for everyone so I can get a bit of an idea for what I can expect: How much experience do you have playing mafia, either on other forums, or in real life (face to face)?

[LlamaFluff]

Hey guys. Going to apologize in advanced for probably being a *little* more quiet then normal right now. Have a term project in Geotech and Steel Design due tomorrow so thats sapping quite a bit of my time. Finals are next week as well, but I should easily get in a post per day, probably just at wierd times.

My time zone is GMT-8 (7PM now for refrence), but I usually pop in at all times of the day.

I find it interesting you just jumped on a bandwagon, giving no reason whatsoever. That puts him on L-2 and if the 2 mafia were here they could easily achieve a lynch for them.

This is something that will likely not happen outside of a LyLo* scenario as it would end up with a very high chance of that player getting lynched the next day for pushing a lynch through without a claim first, although that is WIFOM** to an extent.

*LyLo is shorthand for "Lynch or Lose". It is a scenario where if the town lynches town, scum will win the game right there. An example would be a three player game with two townies and one mafia.

**WIFOM is Wine in Front of Me. It basically is the cyclical arguement of "scum would never hammer on page one, so the hammerer must be scum, but scum knows that is what people would think, so they could hammer, but then town would think its scum..." so on for infinity.

@DP - Did you consider what you commented on regarding Brent a tell?

[LlamaFluff]

I was just being snarky. I find it's the best way to make people put in that "more" effort.

Its not.

Encouragement and asking questions is. Being a dick pisses people off which makes them abbrasive or lurky.

@mod

- Can you find replacements for the two that have yet to post?

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
Vote BrentM

I am going to

vote: tanstalas

, because they voted first and so quickly, which seems to me, is also the easy way out.

Why is trying to get a lynch a tell? In order to win we actually need to lynch so it being a tell for that one is out the window. Additonally, you attack the timing of the vote instead of the vote itself. Nothing I can see here says that you disagree with his read, you never even acknowledge any of his points. This is a blatant attack on someone who is trying to get the game started. Why is making the first serious vote a tell?

[LlamaFluff]

Do we have fun and games?

VOTE: Lunaticlucas

Random voting, woooo!
(I don't want to get the ACTUAL lynch this early so I am avoiding the people others are voting for.)

We got everything you want.

Have you read the game yet?

[LlamaFluff]

Have you read the game yet?

Yes, I'm not sure who is scum though.

Well... you do say:

If you want my opinions then the quad-post was really scummy, but two of those posts are just vla and talking to the mod about something so I don't think it should really count. Being a snarky jerk isn't exactly giving him any good-guy points though.

and

BrentM seems mildly scummy as well, but thats probably just his inexperience. I didn't really get anything other than that.

Why not vote one of the two that you are saying is scummy? There is nothing wrong with changing your vote. Its not unusual to change a vote five, ten or more times a day (depending on length of day and players in game).

Why is quad-posting scummy? Are you saying being snarky is a scum tell or a null tell?

[LlamaFluff]

I really think I have some mafia working against me here, probably because I am an easy target to get lynched. In fact, I am going to

unvote

and

vote: Pinewolf

because Pine seems to be leading this charge against me.

Why do you think scum has to be "leading the charge" against you as opposed to town who thinks you are scummy?

[LlamaFluff]

Why do you think scum has to be "leading the charge" against you as opposed to town who thinks you are scummy?

btw, your reason makes no sense as well. You attacked my second vote because I didn't address tanstalas' reasons for voting DP? He voted him because of his username did not think I had to address that...

He gave reasoning that was not random in post 25. If he was voting someone else randomly, he likely would have moved his vote to DP in that post. At that point it became non-random.

[LlamaFluff]

What makes everyone think BrentM is scummy? All I caught is that he was kinda defensive at times. May someone please enlighten me?

Actually given his responses I think he may be new town who just is thinking anyone who wants him lynched is scum for it.

unvote

I didn't 'cause its day one and those scum tells are ludicrously unreliable right now and based on things that are kinda petty, I figure I'd rather vote for the AFKish (sorta) guy first.

Well, why are you not doing anything to draw out some scum tells or town tells to help you get a read instead of voting someone that has not posted yet.

[LlamaFluff]

Given that I have moderated about a dozen games here I will offer my insight.

Mafia are in all cases I have seen allowed to talk until the game begins, usually this is at least 48 hours. For the newer players, this normally takes place in a quicktopic, which is an offsite mini-forum type thing that is secret, and people can post to. This allows replacements to know what has been talked about. Mafia being able to daytalk is a very rare situation, and does not occur in newbie games from what I have ever seen before.

[LlamaFluff]

@Brent: I'm sorry I think we got off on the wrong foot...........I don't try to pick on people on the lower level side of intelligence. It's like starting a battle of wits with an unarmed man, but I just couldn't resist.

Nice to see Mr. High and Mighty has any reads himself apart from an unexplained maybe scummy read on a few people.

Personal attacks are not really tolerated too much here, being assertive is fine, but going after someone simply to belittle someone is not allowed and will get you replaced in most cases. If you have something to say, say it civily and we can move from there.

Why do you think Brent is scum? Why do you think wolf is maybe scum?

[LlamaFluff]

The thing is I'm sick and can't go anywhere out or do anything. I also don't have any movies here. So the only thing i can do is post here and lurk the internet. But nothing was happening here, so i decided to write that post as it was sure to generate some kind of discussion.
As far as i can tell it was successful. While i was sleeping you made a ton of posts. That is good. It gives me something to do, plus it moves things along. No discussion is boring and brings nothing to anyone. If anything it hides the scum better.

So you directly posted a hollow accusation just to get discussion going? Seems kinda manipulative/scummy to me. :/ Although you don't mark me as very scummy (just slightly so), I'm going to keep my vote where it is for now.

Im confused by this. You are voting for Pine, comment on this by him, say he is not really scummy for it, but you subesquently seem to attack Lunatic but leave your vote on someone you only have a very slightly scummy if even that. Why is lunatic scummy as well? You just seem to attack him for being a jerk, again not a tell of anything but personality.

[LlamaFluff]

Hey LlamaFluff, I haven't heard you give your opinions on who is and who isn't scummy. Can I ask that you give one now?

DP and Brent are both town.

Pine and Mirror are scummy, but almost for sure not scum together.

KTS and Lunatic are kinda scummy, but im watching them closer for connections then anything else.

Tans is probably town but I have reservations about calling him town that still make me uncomfortable about putting him on the level of DP and Brent.

Flaker needs replacing.

@pine - To explain the grammar part a bit (which is funny because I am horrible at it), using the word "we" implies that you are a part of the group. In this case, the 'we would be able to talk' means that you have the ability to talk with him, aka are mafia with him. In the event you are town the word you would be looking for is "they", a collective of people that does not include yourself.

Either way my bigger problem with Pine is that he seems to be testing the waters and leaving small marks on different wagons which would allow him to go back and forth between them as needed. In his most recent post there are five players that essentially have a "no read" attached to them, a flaker and a conflicted read on KTS.

@Mirror - Can you summarize the Pine case? Also what makes the aggressiveness of Lunatic scummy while the aggro-DP is not scummy?
@Pine - Can you summarize the Brent case?

[LlamaFluff]

Ok these last few pages make Brent definantly town. He is either unintentionally hitting all of my newbie-town tells as scum, or much more likely is newbie-town.

Anyways, the reasons I think Mirror is scum

Sorry if I'm not really contributing anything at this point. D: These mafia games are hard to follow! Hopefully I'll get the gist of it before D2.

This is a classic slight tell actually, as it assumes that he will be alive on D2. The players with the best chance of being alive are scum, as they are not going to get nightkilled.

Im confused by this. You are voting for Pine, comment on this by him, say he is not really scummy for it, but you subes(e)quently seem to attack Lunatic but leave your vote on someone you only have a very slightly scummy if even that. Why is lunatic scummy as well? You just seem to attack him for being a jerk, again not a tell of anything but personality.

I was afraid that voting for someone who did something mean without having any hard evidence would quickly form a "wagon" (I think I used that properly ) and get him lynched prematurely before anything could be further evaluated. To an extent I was right, He is at L-3 and if I voted for him he would be put at L-2, which would allow the mafia (assuming they haven't already voted on him) to quickly vote for him and get him lynched really early.

While the "no L-2 fear" had already been explained, this also is sidestepping the question of why Lunatic was scummy for being a jerk.

Lunatic was accusing BrentM of being stupid and everything. He seemed to be agreeing with something already established by everyone. Kinda like "yeah I think so too" except exaggerated to make him seem townish. Also him calling himself intellectual seemed like he was trying to garner a leadership role. I found this suspicious. But again I didn't vote for him because I didn't want to start a wagon on him with no hard evidence besides him being a jerk.

But you called him scummy when you initally brought it up. What changed between then and now?

I will get to answering pine later. This is finals work for me and I have a geotech one tomorrow that I should be able to hold a B in with some work.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok so we have someone at L-1 right now, which in standard practice means that Pine should claim right now. Note there are some people who have some different theories on when a claim should occur, but I feel its best to just do that at L-1 in almost all situations, this one included.

At the same time, I do not really love the Pine lynch that much. Some of his post read sort of like annoyance more then anything else which I think is coming from town as opposed to scum. Given what has been brough up recently, I like the lunatic push a bit more, especially after the meta that was dug up. Meta is metagaming, this means drawing what you see someone do from an old game, and comparing it to a current one. Its hard to do consistantly though, since people change over time and with not only alignment but role. Not something to base an entire case off of, but decent supplement. Hard to use accurately consistantly though.

unvote
Vote lunatic

@Mirror - When someone responds to a case, that doesnt mean one must move their vote. Usually back and forths reach a certain point where they are more of a distraction to everyone else then getting reads off of.

[LlamaFluff]

For what Brent has been saying, his entire case hinges on Pine being scum first. If Pine is town, just about every point against me is gone since I am no longer trying to "get suspicion off a scum buddy". Im calling Brent, DP town and solidly leaning Pine as town here. Especially Brent for his recent posts.

@Brent - Am I also scum if Pine is town?
@Mirror - If you want me to scan my note page for the finals ive already taken I will. I am making about two posts a day and posted last 24 hours ago. That is not bad for activity when my other game posts were in an ultra-fast paced game (35 pages in two weeks including thanksgiving) that was reaching deadline/starting day.
@Mirror - Do you think that DP is scum or town?
@tans - I can link you to my last game as scum, but its been over a month ago now I think.

~~~~

Mirror is still really setting off alarms for me on mostly a gut level, but there are some things there that are decent tells. Recently we have things like his wierd move to the Pine wagon.

For a long time he called him scum, but was amazingly reluctant to vote him, it really seemed like it was a forced move more than anything else. You can compare this with his vote on lunatic which seemed to just be a quick move. I do not understand what seems to be more of a fear in putting Pine at L-1 when he thinks that he is scum. Its worth noting that his vote on lunatic was a L-2 vote, and on much less evidence presented by him, this upping of the anti or whatever better analogy you can come up with feels wrong.

This puts him at L-1, I request that no one hammer him yet; we have 2 weeks to go here people, we might be able to find his scumbuddy.

Not as sure if this is a tell, but its worth pointing out at this point that its a bad thing to do, and scum LOVE to do it. If you start searching for a partner before night, scum can manipulate the heck out of reads, and have better ideas of what good night actions are. Especially with Pine not being confirmed scum, if Pine flips scum, we just got two weeks of noise to deal with. Starting step B before step A finishes can cause problems.

Here its a good time to point out that manipulation is not necessarily a scum tell. Its worth the time to try and guide other players into doing what you want them to do as town. I have done it plenty of times when I see people not really listening to things that I am saying, just try and nudge them there subtely instead of putting up walls of text. Also its a great thing to do if you are a PR to get people to follow information you may have without claiming.

If to make a point more then anything else

unvote
Vote Mirror

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama, no you wouldn't. But I think Pine is scum based on your reactions to his gameplay. I asked previously, but why did you state so early that DP was town? Also, why did you get a scummy vibe from pine at one point but now think he is town?

So then both the reads of pine-scum and me-scum are entirely dependent on the other being scum? You seem to be saying that the only reason I am scum is that Pine is scum, and the only reason that Pine is scum is that I am scum.

I stated that DP is town beacuse I got a solid read on DP early on. Im of the camp that professing your town reads is a perfectly fine thing to do in games.

Pine I have changed my tune on due to not really liking the wagon that is forming on him. Most of the people that are voting him are people that I have somewhat of a scumread on, which is a sign of a mislynch in most games. This coupled with the reaction posts that Pine has been putting up make me thing that he is town.

@lunatic - Tells are very fluids. They differ depending on setup, experience of the player, state of the game, etc. There is no universal tell.

[LlamaFluff]

My thing about having an odd switch up with Pine is simply because I was very caught between them both. I really could not decide who I thought was more scummy. I just sorta staggered at parts and voted for whichever one offered a better gut feeling at the time. Although now I don't think Lunatic is as scummy as Pine.

It seemed that you decided Pine was scum around your iso 22. Just almost was a matter of convincing yourself that it was true.

I feared putting Pine as L-1 cause I was afraid scum would lynch him right off the bat and we would never learn anything from him or he wouldn't be able to offer a case if he was innocent. I later learned this is horrible practice for mafia (makes sense) as it reveals them.

This had been gone over already though.

Your accusation that scum love to try and get scumbuddies before conclusive evidence is placed on someone also I can deny. Doesn't it make sense to try and learn as much as possible in one day? What is better, just lynching someone who you know to be scum (no one in particular, just a term used in example); or lynching them, and also learning who their buddies are, their respective roles in the mafia, and everyone they are pursuing and why? I thought it would be best to try and look to see who his scum buddy would be, because he really does mark me as the scummiest person here. Except right now I feel it is you (but that is totally bias cause you are pushing me right now, ask me in 2 rl days and I will probably have a different opinion.)

Well, if scum knows they have a cop confirmed guilty on them the best play is to actually stop posting entirely if they know they cant get the cop lynched in return. Its fine to think about who partners are, I do that all the time whenever I push someone. I even think about it as scum when I make pushes of who I can make look like partners to who. Its a very dangerous thing to start discussing publicly though because it can easily be manipulated beyond reason. Its rare to get a 100% for sure scum flip though, ive been playing for over two years and I only have been more then about 80-90% sure of a scum flip just a few times.

Your whole thing of manipulation as a townie just isn't right in my mind. :\ Town have no real reason to ever lie or bend the truth. Everything can be deduced with honesty and justice if you try hard enough.

We may have different definitions of manipulate then. I use to for trying to get someone to do something without them realizing it. I have done this to people as town before, just because it seems to most efficient way of making someone get to where you want them.

@DP(or whoever said it) - Me being quieter like this in a game is more indicative of me not having strong reads then anything else. Not sure what more people want on meta for me, im habitually harder to meta then most.

[LlamaFluff]

@lunatic - Is Pine scum? Yes or no.

[LlamaFluff]

It seemed that you decided Pine was scum around your iso 22. Just almost was a matter of convincing yourself that it was true.

iso 22? What's that?

When you are reading the game at the bottom there is a pull down that says "Display Posts By User". From there you can select a certain player and it will show you all the posts that they have made and number them in that order. Iso 22 is your 22 second post you made in "isolation"

[LlamaFluff]

Done with finals. Was in almost seven straight hours of exams today.

Truth is I really don't like how he sounds. He just comes in and destroys cases. Not like he comes in and provides tons of evidence though.

He is playing more aggressive then productive, but why is trying to shut down cases a bad thing. If I ever get really convinced of a town read, I will try and rip apart any case pushed against them. How is him trying to cut down cases that arent on him a bad thing?

He went into King's post and goes "I could pick this thing apart, but I wont". He gives off a vibe of being so sure of himself it is suspicious.

Can you quote a post on that for me?

He is pushy, especially towards me (I'm easily manipulated I admit). He just assumes a leadership position, something which was half of my case against Lunatic. If all this Pine stuff turns out to just be some futile argument among townies, he is definitely going to shoot to the top of my suspicion list.

This I really dislike. You are setting up to lynch either me (town) or DP (town read) with a flip of Pine. You also are tossing in a few buzz words that really mean nothing in respect to a case such as "pusy" and "leadership"

My biggest vibe against him is how hard he is pushing Pine. I think Pine is scum for the most part, no doubting that. But he acts like he KNOWS your scum. I said this before I think; DP acts like either a completely reckless town, or a scum pushing a popular wagon (Pine's).

So why arent you scum with Pine then by your own logic and reads? You think he is scum and have been sticking to it for a long period of time. That means you too must be bussing him right?

[LlamaFluff]

I still say Pine is town, and what he claims. Other town are DP and Brent, KTS is getting there quickly. Think that Mirror and Tans are a decent pair for scum, lurker can easily work there too. Mod really should be on him more, three posts in ten days is unacceptable.

[LlamaFluff]

I am having a REALLY hard time getting scum reads this game, much more then normal at this point. I feel confident with my town reads though, and would be very surprised if more than one of Pine, DP, Brent and KTS are scum in this game. I would even be slightly surpirsed if one of them is scum. I have a lot of bad vibes about tans, and that he works with you to an extent as a partner is why I think that is a good start. Lurker really needs replacing though, especially in this small of a game. When I cant get scum reads, I rely even more heavily on my town reads. This is one of those games where I am trying to use my town reads to catch scum, but there really arent any town reads who arent pushing OTHER people I have town reads on.

Frustrating.

[LlamaFluff]

meh, ATE is common from newbie towns.

I agree, that is why I was said "ugh"

I was pretty convinced Pine was scum, however his latest post struck me as a townie who has just given up as we have pushed him pretty hard and he has just given up.

Ive only been telling you he has been giving off town for emotional tells for the last five pages...

@mod

- Whats going on with VOT?

[LlamaFluff]

Im going to reevaluate a bit...

Brent - Town (ignorance of stuff scum would know, push on me after I defend him)
Pine - Town (emotional tells, basis and members of wagon)
KTS - Probably Town (I like almost everything I see here, very few things make me doubt this read)
DP - Leaning Town (When I look back without a confirmation bias, he isnt as town as original, but I think town)
VOT - Null (needs replacing)
lunatic - Slight scummy (Multiple wierdness happening there, with no real town tells. The sudden shift in personality makes me on edge)
tans - Gut Scummy (Something feels wrong here, his play is different then it was when I have seen him as scum before, but that was a multi-scum game which anyone who has played them can tell you they are an entirely different entity)
Mirror - Scummy (see previous cases)

Basically refuse to lynch Brent, Pine and KTS. I am against a DP lynch, and we REALLY need a VOT replacement.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama for post #285: You say "see previous cases", didn't I respond and answer all of those? You haven't responded to my defense at all, you just seem to be ignoring it.

After a while I normally just think that I have gone back and forth enough and am comfortable with my vote. However in this case I think that I have been digging such a big tunnel that I just hit daylight in a different country.

unvote

Traveling from campus back to home tomorrow so no promises on getting another vote out then. Tuesday at worst.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote lunaticlucas

Going to shift back to this train of thought

A very quick breakdown of why he is scum

1) Lack of reads early
~In his opening post where he did a rundown of players, he has two town reads and that is it.
~Leaves adjustable reads for everyone but his town reads (Brent and Mirror)
2) Hypocritical lurker stance
~He early says that lurking is scummy but he seems to take offense to KTS for saying that he is lurking and scummy for it. That really doesnt add up to much for me since he is trying to avoid using a tell against himself while vouching for its validity against others.
3) Pine stance
~There is multiple spots where he flat out refuses to vote pine at a point where it would put him very close to a lynch for no discernable reason.
4) How to play
~Asking for what peoples tells are is a little bit of a tell since it allows you to adjust your play such that you can ideally make moves to avoid tells. A side note being able to lock down on what other people consider scummy is the best way to play as scum since you can avoid setting off alarms for most people.
5) Vote on me
~No its not OMGUS, sorta
~The case on me was based off Pine flipping scum
~~lunatic, who already stated that he had a hard time actually throwing down a vote on Pine immediately jumping on me for the premise that Pine was scum just reads very bad.

+Other things
~The only way I see Pine as possible scum is with lunatic, even then I doubt that
~I would be shocked if both lunatic and mirror were town in this game, although both scum together is probably a long shot
~Brent and KTS are still def town, Pine almost for sure.

[LlamaFluff]

This game is starting to stall quite a bit due to lunatic needing a replacement which is bad as stalled games are harder to get back in motion. Lucky for us lunatic qualifies for a replacement in about six hours.

DP should answer the question from SS about tans/LL. Its a decent question.

For Mirror: VI is village idiot, which someone normally uses to describe someone who is a weak player. Definitions of a VI vary a lot between players, as some say it people who dont really play to win, to me who tends to use it to describe someone who is lynched in half (argueably a third) or more of thier games.

[LlamaFluff]

Lunaticlucas has about 24 hours left until he gets replaced. BrentM is being prodded.

So in a rigid three week deadline game we are going to stall for a week because a wagonee flakes? He hasnt posted on site for six days, the ammount of time with prod at 72 hours it would take to replace already.

Alright...

Only time I may not be around during the holidays is monday/tuesday. Even then I THINK that I will get in a post.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama, you're the most experienced here...what do you make of our little predicament?

Apart from the ruleset that allows six days before a replacement is even started to be looked for (really this is rediculous mod, I think my 72prod-48rep is outdated as is), it varys from person to person. Big theory thing.

If I think that someone is scum, im going to vote them if they flake near a deadline. While I would love to hear them come in and claim, at the same time I would rather lynch my top pick who is unclaimed over someone who is not my top pick for scum.

Im not moving my vote. I like where it is.

@mod

- If you are going to make us wait at least a week to replace the top vote getter, can you extend the deadline to compensate?

[LlamaFluff]

In fact you seem to be quite happy with jumping on the bigger wagons when you came in (DP and Luna) - overeager scum looking to get a lynch off on D1?

DP yes, lunatic is very argueable. I was the only one voting him, and only had been for under a page before singer made her post against him. It was the very early stages of a wagon, if you could call it that, that she joined on.

The move from DP though was pretty bad there. Singer has it right already. The vote on singer directly contridicts what he had been pushing on other reads up to this point, and reads more of trying to start a coutnerwagon to not only himself but also possible partner lunatic. Unless all his reads changed as of very recent (about last page-ish) this vote makes no sense unless he thinks some extreme bussing is occuring. Also again interesting, DP and lunatic basically have avoided eachother this entire game, excentuated by the recent rise of a wagon on each of them while they avoided the others wagon this entire time.

I am willing to lynch either of these two, but I still slightly prefer lunatic, although that vote for singer by DP makes a great case for him over lunatic. I would be willing to lynch either at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

Leaving my vote. Uite is picking up the wishy-washyness of lunatic without missing a beat

First, DavidParker is acting really weird. He's alternating super scummy stuff, with quite pro-town comments. However, most of his pro-townieness comes from his use of mafia theory, so I'm not sure it cancels out. I'm putting him in the 'scum' category for now.

Pinewolf caught a lot of flak, but I'm not sure all of it is deserved. Some of it seems to come from him being a newbie, but emphatically not all. Especially the way he is generally hesitant with his actions, as well as the many excuses he's making don't really make me think of him as town.

MirrorIrirroM has a lot of trouble getting into the game. Most of his posts up till this point are just restating what others have said, while not providing much of his own, though it does seem to pick up later on.

LlamaFluff definitely takes the IC role to heart, but I'm not seeing too much of him besides that. He's asking good questions, but I'd like to see him draw conclusions from that as well.

KingTwelveSixteen seems generally pro-town, though he doesn't always pick up on the right things.

Tanstalas seems okay too. His posts aren't very frequent, but they are good.

BrentM posts a lot, but he's not actually contributing much. I'm willing to write it off as newbieness, because I'm also not seeing anything really bad.

aka

DP - Goes back and forth between town and scum tells, but gets put as 'scummy'
pine - newbie not deserving all the attacks on him, but is 'not town'
mirrior - doesnt say much of use
llama - is helpful but null
KTS - does good things, but isnt perfect
tans - lurky but decent poster
brent - says little in many words, newbyish, 'not scummy'

He avoids any strong stance halfway through the game and is taking every possible route there is to not call anyone town or right off a vote on any person.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama: So your saying he is taking all sides, so as not to face consequences (from scum point of view) if a person flips town when lynched?

I normally see it as a way to keep options open for the player. If you avoid taking hard stances on people, you can make whatever move is most convienent from there as there is no past reads that you have to explain differently. Scum need options, stances like his give him plenty.

[LlamaFluff]

singer, why have you not cast a vote?

I've been voting for Luna/Uite almost the whole time I've replaced in. I only unvoted to vote for a deadline extension. Why is that any less a legitimate vote than voting for DP or Uite?

You didnt need to unvote to ask for an extension, that is what this is all about.

We need a votecount

@DP - Why is lunatic/Uite scum? Is he your top pick? Second pick?

[LlamaFluff]

@DP - Can you explain how you abandoned the case on tans who you have been trying to get lynched for half the game for a case on singer that he is pushing?

[LlamaFluff]

Because no-one was joining in with the tanst wagon or thought it had any merit. Singer/tanst/Luna are my top 3 scum-reads at this point so I didn't mind moving my vote to singer.

So tans is bussing singer who is bussing lunatic?

[LlamaFluff]

Pine was prodded yesterday, and I can confirm that he picked it up. He has ~24 hours before I go find another replacement. Gotta admit, for a usual BaM mod, this whole replacement thing is

weird

BaM is bad FOR mafia (seriously, I dislike that ruleset)... rabble rabble rabble.

@DP - Explain how your reads on luna, tans and singer work.

I still prefer the lynch of Uite over DP right now.

[LlamaFluff]

@DP - Explain how your reads on luna, tans and singer work.

Second time is the charm?

[LlamaFluff]

1. Lack of reads early. That's not even true, since he did obviously have then, as evidenced by posts #71 and #167. They may not have been extensive, they were definitely there. And how is having sparse reads on page three a scumtell? He was being honest and just showing his thoughts. Transparency is pro-town.
   
2. How is his stance hypocritical? He wasn't a lurker. (Even though I may have said that myself earlier - I was wrong.) Look at the timestamps on his iso. He posted regularly until the 10th, and then just
   flaked
   . Big difference.
   
3. Another misrep. Nowhere does he "flat out refuse" to vote for Pine. The closest he comes is with this "I need to feel strongly that someone is scum before I vote, I still haven't even cast my first vote yet." and it doesn't even mention Pinewolf, it's just a general statement. Yes he thought Pine was scum, but he also thought Llama was worse.
   
4. This is probably the only point on the list that has some substance to it, but remember that Lunatic was extremely inexperienced. That's not exactly an excuse, but I've seen newbies of either alignment do it.
   
5. This doesn't even make sense. If anything it's omgus from Llama's end, not Lunatic's. The case was Brent's so why doesn't he share in the suspicion? Even moreso, the case wasn't all based on Pinescum, there was plenty in there that was independently scummy.

1) He had no reads early on. All of his reads are weak at best and hardly vary from null. At the same time none of his reads are things he locks himself into. Each read is designed to be able to be changed if needed. The best he does until he talks about voting pine is a "scum?" read.
2) I will admit that he was not lurking. I just thought he was because most of his posts lacked substance in the game.
3)

The more I read. the more I'm leaning pine for scum. I just can't bring myself to vote for him yet.

This is him... refusing to vote pine, an explicitly mentioning pinewold. Also you are missing that at this point, lunatic has me as town, so that attempt at a counterpoint goes out the window.
4) Good, we agree its a tell.
5) The case against me is entirely based on Pine being scum. Lunatic is assuming that pine is scum when he votes me. Even the creator of the case admits that the basis for me being scum hinges entirely on pine being scum first. What points that arent null tells about manipulating people are valid here without a confirmed pine-scum situation?

Reading through that pile of misrepresentations by LlamaFluff, I'm certain there's no way this guy is town. That made even stronger by his successful deflection of the case on him through a strawman. He is clearly manipulating and exploiting everyone. He even admits so himself, after Mirror calls him out on it. His vote after that is pure omgus. This guy needs to be lynched asap.

All points countered, not misreps. The case on me is based of pine being scum first, its been admitted by the maker, second point covered. Yep, I am manipulating people. I always do that as both alignments. My vote on lunatic isnt OMGUS, its a case, that quite a few other people have agreed with already.

[LlamaFluff]

@DP - Can you link me to a newbie game you were scum in?

[LlamaFluff]

Im going to say that the claim from DP makes him slightly more likely town then scum after looking at those older games of his, replacement meta does vary though, and I will vote him without hesitation over no lynch. Going to look at some VCs with my reads plugged in to see if I can get anything off of them. Mirror still bugs me to death, and will likely look into him tonight, maybe tans too depending on what information I can find.

[LlamaFluff]

Im going to say that the claim from DP makes him slightly more likely town then scum after looking at those older games of his, replacement meta does vary though, and I will vote him without hesitation over no lynch. Going to look at some VCs with my reads plugged in to see if I can get anything off of them. Mirror still bugs me to death, and will likely look into him tonight, maybe tans too depending on what information I can find.

What is a VC?

Vote Count. They backup the idea that DP is town if my strong town reads are correct.

In accordance with the Festivus spirit...



.....Lack of votecounts!

Happy belated Festivus everyone!

[LlamaFluff]

1) He had no reads early on. All of his reads are weak at best and hardly vary from null. At the same time none of his reads are things he locks himself into. Each read is designed to be able to be changed if needed. The best he does until he talks about voting pine is a "scum?" read.

It's obviously not true that he didn't have reads early on. Read his actual first post: there are scummy, townie and newbie reads in there. Then look at this post. How many null read are in there? Three out of eight. I'd call that a good score for an inexperienced player that early in the game. Your accusation that he had no reads is pretty thoroughly debunked and demonstrably fabricated. And that's without even going into why it would be scummy to have few reads early in the game. It's not, especially for new players. If you really think it is, please explain to me why it is scummy. As for keeping his reads open, that's also not what I'm seeing. Especially in the latter post, he clearly gives definite reads with solid thoughts. Finally I'd like to note that your first mention of your reads came a good deal after Lunatic's and they were certainly more minimal, so this point is hypocritical if nothing else.

In lunatics first post he calls brent a little scummy and DP town. Hardly a hotbed of reads. Newbie reads are actually not anything conclusive, especially in newbie games. They may have a little bit of merit in normal games but not here, especially as he draws zero conclusions based off it. Would like me be stating that "lunatic is angry" after his first few posts.

The second post again is devoid of solid reads. A "leaning X" read is not really a read, as it can be changed at will with any post. He has two more solid reads here (brent and mirror town) and then a lot of reads that are entirely or end with "?".

2) I will admit that he was not lurking. I just thought he was because most of his posts lacked substance in the game.

So we agree, this is not something to hold against him.

Yep. Active lurking isnt as good of a tell as people like making it out to be in most situations. At best its a tiny tell here but I will say null.

3)

The more I read. the more I'm leaning pine for scum. I just can't bring myself to vote for him yet.

This is him... refusing to vote pine, an explicitly mentioning pinewold. Also you are missing that at this point, lunatic has me as town, so that attempt at a counterpoint goes out the window.

Refusing implies that a request has been made, which hadn't happened at that point. Also, in his previous post, he had already explained why he wasn't voting. Taken properly together, he's simply not sure enough that Pine is actually scum to vote for him. And saying that he had you as town at that point is a blatant lie, since he said "Town or a Very good Scum" indicating at least some suspicion. You also said

There is multiple spots where he flat out refuses to vote pine at a point where it would put him very close to a lynch for no discernable reason.

Obviously not true, since there's only one spot where that actually happened, and even that is debatable. Big misrep, making him look scummier than he really is.

Town or very good scum is more likely a town read then a scum read, especially since me having an exam was the only negative view he had on me. Also the wanting to vote pine had been a long time coming. The read on him is very consistant from lunatic if you are going to put backing into the early "leaning" reads that you have been talking about. He calls him scummy in every post, but as the wagon is going on completely ignores it.

4) Good, we agree its a tell.

No, we don't, I said it was pretty much null. Please stick to the truth.

You said it has merit and then waive it off because he was a newbie. You say you have seen newbies do it before, so what is stopping it from being a newbie-scum move apart from the expected arguement of "because I know im town?"

Here's Brent's case again:

- (post #45) follows his scum bud's lead, and votes for me to try and pull public opinion against me.

- (Post #50) Tries to convince King to vote for either me or DP (I mention this here because I think he was testing the waters on public perception of me).

- (post #52) Valid point, but he sure bashes my pine vote pretty quickly, not having bashed any other votes yet. I voted his scum friend, and he needed to make it look pointless

- (post #59) After mirror calls him out and public perception of my actions change, he probably realizes it might look like scum buds on a non scum vote so he quickly changes tactics, and lays low for a while.

** it is at this point that Llama seems to have picked a new target in Mirror (who just so happened to have voted for Pine in post #65)

- (post #83) Trying to get Mirror's heat off of pine and on to lunatic.

- (post #94) Random claim of DP being town, and now throws Mirror in the scum bucket with his buddy Pine. Gives Pine an out from some recent accusations, but yet still throws a town view to keep the image

- (Post #102) clearly tried to get Mirror to vote for lunatic again, now here he also claims he has finals and that he will address pine later.

- (post #141) After posting in another game thread all night (6 times after he said he would be away), he comes back to our game the next day and votes lunatic, the popular vote, while throwing an opinion out there that he doesn't like the pine voting going on.

As you can see, #50, #59, #102 and #141 are all pretty much independent of Pine. Also, this is only Brent's case. You need to consider Mirror's case and the points I've brought forth against you as well, and they are for a large part independent of Pinescum. Saying that it's based entirely on Pine being scum is a clear misrepresentation, though how you've gotten Brent to believe your strawman is commendable I guess.

Well answers to those posts I thought were obvious through a read but...

50) KTS had been saying that Brent and DP were scummy. I was trying to get him to vote for whoever he though was more likely scum out of the two and take a solid stance between them.
59) This is around where my read on Brent changed. I responded accordingly and have been trying to shut down the wagon since then. Why is this bad?
102) How is this a tell? I wanted to see why he had dropped something completely.
141) Its not the "popular wagon" if I was the first person to vote him. Also again, im defending town reads.

The case on me is based of pine being scum first, its been admitted by the maker, second point covered.

False and disingenuous, as shown.

True and reproven, as shown.

Yep, I am manipulating people. I always do that as both alignments.

That's not going to cut it. Manipulating is scummy and you know it. Saying you do it as both town and scum doesn't absolve you of guilt, it only shows that you're willing to compromise your town games in favour of your scum games. If anything you're claiming you are useless to us. Why should we keep you around?

Manipulating someone isnt scummy. I have very rarely seen anyone agree with that statement if its something that is not harmful. Also seriously, dont talk shit about my town games.

My vote on lunatic isnt OMGUS, its a case, that quite a few other people have agreed with already.

Meh, the fact that you've convinced others doesn't mean you're right. That's quite the logical fallacy right there.

And what logical fallacy would that be?

Scum is some combo of Uite/Mirror/tans. I would be completely fine with lynching either of the first two players and will definantly be looking into the last two. I really think that Brent and Pine are town for their play, and that DP is probably town for his play mixed with the claim, but will shift my vote for a lynch if needed.

[LlamaFluff]

With Brent moving all hope of Uite lynch is out the window so...

unvote
Vote DP

Im still really sure that this is a lynch on town, but as logic says, any lynch is better then a no lynch.

Uite/tans/mirror... those three should have all the scum.

[LlamaFluff]

He was at L-3 as Uite was voting me instead of DP until the switch, Brent changed it from 4-3 to Uite to 4-3 to DP and I hammered. Mirror and Pine still arent voting.

[LlamaFluff]

Uite brought up some valid points in the past couple pages. This coupled with the fact that Llama is still alive makes me wary. If I was scum I think I would have tried to take the most experienced person out.

Vote: Llama

My reads have not been too strong this game, Uite was pushing my lynch for a while before deadline, Brent was considered town by just about everyone, as was TKS, and even Pine to a lesser extent, I would have been suprised if I was NKed and would have had to chalk it up to hoping to hit a PR or just an IC-shot. You think me being alive in that situation has anything to do with alignment? By the way, what ever happened to your read on Pine? From what I read, you were on him hard over a slip, a few people were attacking the wagon, then you sorta shifted over to DP without bringing him up ever again.

Also see, trust my town reads. In single faction games they tend to be very accurate. Annoyingly enough I feel that most of my reads beyond those two are being torn to shreads every time I look at the game and almost feel that something HAS to be wrong at this point, near the point of wanting to do one of the ultra-indepth votecount analysis things which I really hate doing because they take so freaking long.

@singer - What alignment were you in that large game you just finished? I really dont want to read through a zwet game to figure it out.

Im not going to lie here. I got next to nothing in the form of reads going. This game is just impossible for me to get a handle on, feel more lost then I have in a really long time at this point. Im almost ready to inverse most of my reads from yesterday looking at people. I mean, im almost to the point where im looking at tans/pine/singer as scum with uite/mirror/KTS as townies in this situation. Hell I really dont want to do the vote thing but really dont think I have much left at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

Pine scum? I thought you were the first person to say that you thought he was town. What's the matter? Uite makes a good case on you so you decide to throw suspicion on Pine now as you think he would be the easiest person to push a mislynch on?

Im lost in reads right now. If I ax a few parts of the read on him that rely on newbie/emotional tells there is a case. Im not going to vote him, but I really dont think he was as townie as I was yelling for most of the day. Then again world domination in a spreadsheet (aka vote counts, Adel style) is really showing some interesting things, making me again think Mirror is scum. Over the first ten pages he has just volleyd back and forth between uite/pine, he has already voted four different people, none starting wagons. That should be done tomorrow, still need another 10 pages and color coding.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok so I finished it, very comprehensive look at what the votecount looked at for any point of the first day, all nice and colorcoded, spoilered it because its a big image.

Spoiler:

How to read it: I will give some examples with that I see as key counts, with known alignments in green (hence why Brent/DP are shades of green)

@Post 141 (first dual 3+ wagon)

Pinewolf (3) - tans,

DP

, Mirror
Uite (3) - KTS,

Brent

, Llama
Singer (1) - Pine
Not Voting (2) - KTS, Uite

@Post 262 (pine hits L-1)

Pine (4) - tans,

DP

, Mirror,

Brent

DP

(1) - KTS
Llama (1) - Uite
Mirror (1) - Llama
Not Voting (2) - singer, Pine

@Post 350 (uite/DP dual wagons)

DP

(3) - KTS, tans, Mirror
Uite (3) - Llama,

Brent

, singer
Llama (1) - Uite
tans (1) -

DP

@Post 406 (DP wagon pulls ahead)

DP

(4) - KTS, Mirror, tans,

Brent

Uite (3) - Llama, singer,

DP

Not Voting (2) - Uite, Pine

@535 (lynch)

DP

(5) - KTS, tans, Mirror, Uite,

Brent

Uite (3) - Llama,

DP

, singer
Not Voting (1) - Pine

One of the biggest things I dislike is the transfer of the Pine wagon onto DP. Pine was proving to be a very difficult lynch and the entire wagon just went *poof* and showed up on a townie. I think this is going to be one of the bigger scum backed shifts in this game. The key people there were Mirror and Tans.

This same situation is again making me reguess my reguess on Pine again (I know convenient but votes say he is somewhat town)

Another spot I like looking is the DP wagon, where there is only one town player flipped on it. I would be stunned to find no scum on that wagon, again that is KTS, tans, mirror. I am eliminating Uite from this given that he was there for self-preservation and nothing else. The fact that he was on me for a while actually means he is probably town given the nature of wagons in this game, and how the like to shift around at a moments notice. Mirror choppyness im torn on, I really dont see him playing like he did unless he is scum with Uite or tans.
SO!

I think...

Town
Uite
Pine

Town with reservations
KTS

Sorta Town
Mirror

Who Knows
singer

Whats Left
tans

Vote tanstalas

Lucky for me, his record on voting is exactly what I would expect from scum, especially in the case that Pine is town. Check his long period on Pine, followed by a snap move onto DP who had just voted him, with no real intention to ever leave that wagon. I really dont call the singer thing a push off the wagon since that looked like it was going nowhere as it was occuring.

Reasoning? Tomorrow. Im tired now.

[LlamaFluff]

So you have gone from Pine scum to pine town to pine scum to pine town again?

Yes.

So you have 4 town reads, 1 unknown and 1 scum? Way to buddy up to everyone. Does that usually work for you?

Thats about the right reads right now. A few weaker town/null reads and a scummy read. If your town reads are right you dont need many scum reads.

Then again world domination in a spreadsheet (aka vote counts, Adel style) is really showing some interesting things, making me again think Mirror is scum. Over the first ten pages he has just volleyd back and forth between uite/pine, he has already voted four different people, none starting wagons. That should be done tomorrow, still need another 10 pages and color coding.

This is interesting, since he is essentially sheeping my second post here. Also note the contradiction in his latest post:

Mirror choppyness im torn on, I really dont see him playing like he did unless he is scum with Uite or tans.

Sorta Town
Mirror

Town
Uite

Thats right. I said that mirror is town unless one of Uite/tans are scum. If both those slots are town, I cant see a Mirror-scum flip. Even with one of you two scum, im not so sure of a Mirror-scum flip. Its something that needs pointing out since interactions (tans) and votes (uite) both have distinct connections. Its worth the show that Mirror is not on same town level as others, even though I see you as probably town.

Just got back from a poker tournament (10th of 62 so not bad, little out of the money though so that hurts) so im braindead for now since that was about four hours of poker. Will get up a more comprehensive case on tans tonight.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
Vote singer

Yes I know I must look completely rediculous right now but I just so freaking lost and think this really is the best way to find myself again.

Early her reads seem to follow with the ones that are popular to an extent, Pine early, mention on Mirror. When she gets fully caught up (post 338 for people using VCA) she now passes off the Pine case for reasons never mentioned, same occurs with Mirror (at this point Pine wagon just fell onto DP). Now there is interest in DP and Uite though, interestingly enough this is during the DP wagon, and right before the Uite wagon picks up (also note singer was third vote on Uite, not initater).

Anyway,

I was planning voting for DP when I came back

, even though he was one of my stronger town reads until the last 2-3 pages creeped up. Man, he just talked himself in circles, and I can't really get my head straight. However, before then, Mirror and Pine were my stronger reads...but they've been consistently active in this game, and they responded fairly decently to DP in the past couple of pages, which has kind of shaken my reads on them.

I wouldn't actually mind a Lunaticulas lynch today. It seems like of anyone,

he's the least helpful to town

. Here were my notes when I was reading through:
Lunaticulas:
-King pretty much summed up what I think of him. Genius meta… (<--I'll go back and find that post...it's there in the thread somewhere...)
-LURKER
-Sheeps a lot of other people’s reads and observations without contributing anything of his own.

And now LLama brings up some of the same points. I don't think that's coincidence.

Luna is, and will probably remain one of the hardest reads for town to get because of his fence-sitting, and general lack of compliance for participating in this game

. He seems to be just enough under the radar to get by, while the other three huge wagon leaders (Pine, Mirror, and now DP) have stolen the spotlight. Provided Luna flips scum (which I'm fairly certain he will), it's not as necessary to need the reads we couldn't get out of him before...but

provided he flips town, we'll still have reads on other players...does that make sense

?

Bolded parts both prove the afformentioned parts and some other points. Biggest one is the way she is putting pressure on lunatic here. In a few situations (bolded 2, 3) she almost seems to be pushing a policy lynch by arguing that he is very hard to read and a mostly useless player as opposed to scum. If you look at the case on him its (ironically) a sheep of king, lurking (what about pine here?) and... lunatic sheeping reads. Also remember we showed lurking is out the window, so its basically "what king said, also luntic is sheeping".

There is also a great way for get the wagons BACK onto the people that she just has brushed aside (pine, mirror, DP), as that will not do anything to effect the current reads on those players. She also says this in a way that implies that she thinks the three are scum, two of which she just brushed off as scum earlier in the same post. Next post is some more setting up of logical fallacy (which is saying it MUST be one of X or Y when it could be both, or neither) that will push the opposite lynch of DP/Uite for whoever survives.

After that post, singer just stops scumhunting for the most part. We have subtle shots at people, and mostly just discussion about what to do at deadline. Again interesting are things like this:

Both are quite scummy. But Luna is useless to us right now, and we have no idea if we can depend on a replacement before deadline hits.

This refers to DP and Uite, when singer has actually never said much of anything scummy about DP this entire game. The one line in the first quoted post is basically the entire reasoning I have found so far that would consititute a DP lynch excluding "deadline reasons". The mindset here reads heavily of trying to justify a vote for DP without really putting any direct pressure on him, while still leaving the Uite wagon for the lynch, or the next days lynch if DP goes through.

Blah...while I really thought Luna/Uite was the better lynch, I don't like how DP's made it a more difficult decision. DP, your vote seems more out of desperation than anything else...what's the reason for it this time?

Again, a really bizzare bash of DP out of nowhere, just piggybacking on the DP hate that is coming from others. If you bother to read singer, you can see that she is laying down the framework to vote DP, but there never is a foundations. There NEVER is a mention of a case. For that matter there is very little mention of a Uite case, just telling us where to look for it. Most of the time she spends is picking up others attacks and pushing them with a lot of noise.

When Brent makes a move to put DP at L-1, singer goes off on him for doing so, while she apparently thinks DP is scummy at the same time.

My mild scum reads turned pretty town when I saw what was going on with DP.

I explained that I was going to vote him, but then ISOed everyone, and realized that Luna was the scummiest looking

. I thought it would be pretty clear that either lynch would be fine (like you quoted, either scum, or directly leading to catching scum), but I'd rather get rid of someone who wasn't contributing, but still acting scummy, than someone who was, and could potentially get better reads off later.

Since you're all caught up now, I don't really see a point in keeping my vote off of you

.

First im not so sure that she iso-ed lunatic and found him the scummiest, especially since her entire case is "what KTS said". I think this is just an over the top way to attack Uite. Also I really dont get the last part too much, it seems like she was waiting to see if Uite would be active and contribute, he does, and she immediately votes him because he is now caught up. The "isnt contributing" only applied to the lunatic era of the slot, so the point is gone. It seems more like a retaliation vote to Uite pressuring her which occurs in recent posts, which made her convinced that it was the right move to vote Uite over DP.

I'm really curious as to where you misunderstood who I wanted to vote for and why, as the primary catch-up post/s consisted of this:

These are the quotes I was referring to:

Huzzah! I'm done! And I'm pretty sure I know who is scum (though it's wishy-washy...I'm about 97.5% certain that this person is scum, or if not, will directly lead to our immediate catching of scum, both being very good things for town). Just let me get my thoughts in order and I'll have them up by tomorrow night after I get off work.

Good work, people. I think we found a good'un.

Anyway, I was planning voting for DP when I came back,

even though he was one of my stronger town reads

until the last 2-3 pages creeped up. Man, he just talked himself in circles, and I can't really get my head straight.

However, before then, Mirror and Pine were my stronger reads

...but they've been consistently active in this game, and they responded fairly decently to DP in the past couple of pages, which has kind of shaken my reads on them.

From that, I took it you found Mirror and Pine a lot scummier than DP, which really clashed with your near certainty. That "Luna over DP" stuff added to that, since that would mean a third player might be even more suspicious than your 97,5% read. Contradictions like that are pretty scummy, don't you think?

I feel like this is where we've come to a misunderstanding, and I can understand that. In my previous post, I bolded what I meant to be emphatic, so I'm assuming you did the same. My 97.5% read has everything to do with thinking we either found scum or someone who will directly lead to our catching of scum. No where did I actually say I thought this person was 97.5% scum only. On the first day, I feel like a read like that is pretty hard to come by.

[/quote]

So who was it anyways? I dont think you ever really told us that. What was the reasoning? What posts exactly changed this?

Other votecount thoughts:

Pine is only has a shot to be scum if Mirror and tans are town
Uite is probably town
Pine town should mean at least of Mirror, tans scum
Pine-singer partners? Mirror-tans?

[LlamaFluff]

The new "scum with tans" thing is kinda unfounded too. The only real evidence for it is me and him following similar voting patterns. Also if you notice I followed BrentM's voting patterns far more closely then Tans. Brent turned out to be town in the end, so what makes you think me closely following Tans automatically makes US scum?

Its one of the things making me still uncomforable about you. I can see the two of you working together as scum REALLY well. By far if I was only able to take pair shots it would be a top three one without much pause.

Your whole game has been so...disconnected? I don't know if that is the right word. I mean to say that you seem like scum but the fact that your posts are always spoken with an air of discipline makes them very hard to form ground against you.

I know my game has been choppy. My reads are really having a hard time staying put, and DP getting lynched then Brent dying took out my two most solid reads.

While I am at L-1, im not going to claim unless someone who is not voting me says they will hammer if I will not claim. I also am not going to claim until everyone has posted, as if a cop has a guilty thats the auto-lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

While you're at it, please give me a full list of your reads and especially opinions of players, with full explanations.

In order then...

Uite - Town - I cant see you responding the way you did when that you replaced into the game. Pushing on someone who really had no real shot of being lynched when the race appeared to be essentially one on one, with you being one of the players in question is very likely a town tell. The play showed no self-preservation in mind.
KTS - Probably Town - There are very few reasons to think of him as scum, but not a whole lot of reasoning, except just being clear with his reads, to think of him as scum. He just reads as a strong player who is not displaying scumtells, a scum flip here would not be flooring, but it would be unexpected.
Mirror - Leaning town - While I really dont see him as town as most do. I think that his play reads as newer town who really isnt as sure what the right moves to make is since his motivations seem to not have a whole lot of trackable things behind them. This makes me think townish since scum usually you can see follow a more distinct path. There are still lots of things, particularly how interested he is in defending himself as opposed to calling people scum, that make me want to keep an eye on him, but I think he is townish for now.
Pine - Leaning town - He will be town UNLESS both Mirror and Tans are both town. If they are both town, then Pine is going to be scum. I still dislike the wagon that formed on him, but the way flips are happening, and the reads that I have suggest that the read may be wrong and it was scum imploding instead of town impolding. One of Mirror-Tans scum mean that Pine is probably town, and would pass Mirror and KTS on town reads.
Tans - Gut Scum - Something really reads wrong here for me. I have zero reason to think of him as town at this point in the game, which sets of major warning flags for me. There is little reason to think that he is scum, but a lack of town tells has me thinking that a scum flip here may easily occur.
singer - Probably Scum - See previous case.

@People voting me - Thoughs on singer case?

Im still not going to claim and ask the people voting me to at least say their opinions on my case before singer shows up and just hammers.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama: Why only the people voting you? It seems odd to only tell US to talk about singer. Who would possibly make us CHANGE our vote. Seems like a way to divert us more then anything.

Making you change your vote to who I think is scum is more or less the point. Also everyone (active) is voting me or singer. No other real options.

My reads have not been too strong this game, Uite was pushing my lynch for a while before deadline, Brent was considered town by just about everyone, as was TKS, and even Pine to a lesser extent, I would have been suprised if I was NKed and would have had to chalk it up to hoping to hit a PR or just an IC-shot. You think me being alive in that situation has anything to do with alignment?

Im lost in reads right now. If I ax a few parts of the read on him that rely on newbie/emotional tells there is a case. Im not going to vote him, but I really dont think he was as townie as I was yelling for most of the day.

Not too long ago, stuff like this was a major part of his case againt Lunatic. By his own logic, this means that he's scum.

I am still trying to put cases together. Lunatic never did this, he just hung around for the most part doing nothing.

Also, you really look like you're attacking Mirror, while calling him town. Please explain.

Im not? What more then that do you really want here? I already have said my current reads on him more then once.

@People voting me - Thoughs on singer case?

I think you've picked up on much the same things that made me suspicious of her when I replaced in. She's since explained the very points you're looking at now. What do you think about those responses?

Some yes, all no. Humor me and let her answer them

[LlamaFluff]

Actually a big problem is that we have two people not posting, Pine who is flaked from the site and singer who is avoiding the game but posting elsewhere.

I am still trying to put cases together. Lunatic never did this, he just hung around for the most part doing nothing.

That doesn't change your core argument that his reads were deliberately vague/changable, which is pretty much what you did as well at the start of the Day. It's the double standard you're displaying that I'm taking issue with, not actually your reads themselves.

They were bad to start, but I was ontop of getting them locked down ASAP, something that he never did.

Im not? What more then that do you really want here? I already have said my current reads on him more then once.

I know, but

"Mirror choppyness im torn on, I really dont see him playing like he did unless he is scum with Uite or tans."

really looks like you're calling him scum, which contradicts your other statements.

Im not calling him scum, im calling him a solid town read UNLESS one of two others are scum. The quickness that the read on him changes from probably scum to leaning town if one of the two flips scum is significant enough to bring up in that read.

We really should lynch singer today.

[LlamaFluff]

Im not calling him scum, im calling him a solid town read UNLESS one of two others are scum. The quickness that the read on him changes from probably scum to leaning town if one of the two flips scum is significant enough to bring up in that read.

"I really dont see him playing like he did unless he is scum with Uite or tans"

is equivalent to

"I can only see him playing like he did if he is scum with Uite or tans"

, which really is you calling him scum.

Right. I am saying he is town unless X or Y happens. That is saying he is probably town, but explaining the scenarios where he might not be town.

[LlamaFluff]

Until I catch up again, Llama, can you please explain again how you got all your reads, other than VC analysis? I'm still baffled at the 180 you did between D1 and today. I mean, that's not condemning in itself, but I don't think you've justified your reasonings well. I'll explain that more in my catch up/responses to your case against me.

I already explained the changed read of Uite quite a few times, I think my changed read of you is explained, tans didnt change, KTS didnt change, Mirror and Pine ive been doing my best to explain, and have my conditionals set up there.

[LlamaFluff]

Part 1/2

unvote
Vote singer

Yes I know I must look completely rediculous right now but I just so freaking lost and think this really is the best way to find myself again.

1.

Early her reads seem to follow with the ones that are popular to an extent, Pine early, mention on Mirror. When she gets fully caught up (post 338 for people using VCA)

2.

she now passes off the Pine case for reasons never mentioned, same occurs with Mirror (at this point Pine wagon just fell onto DP). Now there is interest in DP and Uite though, interestingly enough this is during the DP wagon, and right before the Uite wagon picks up

3.

(also note singer was third vote on Uite, not initater).

1. I wonder what you expect a replacement to do...not talk about their reads on anyone but the person they're voting?
2. You then say that I pass off the Pine case "for reasons never mentioned" when in another post which you quoted

directly below this one

I said "Mirror and Pine were my stronger reads...but they've been consistently active in this game, and they responded fairly decently to DP in the last couple of pages."
3. Actually, as proven by your pretty awesome graph of VCs, I was second on the wagon, and only unvoted to give Uite a chance to catch up. I'm curious as to why you're nothing that I was "third," though. What's your reasoning for pointing that out?

1 - Reading through your posts is almost exactly how the game progressed. Pine got talked about then everyone backed off him, I made a lot of noise regarding Mirror, eventually DP started taking heat. Your reads when you replace in? Pine is scummy then he gets dropped, Mirror may be scum but then DP is suddenly the scummiest player. This is basically following popular opinion the entire way through.
2 - Your turnaround is "responded well to DP". If you are calling some of my changes in reads lacking explaination this is even worse. If he was your top read for the entire game up to that point, no flips really makes it seem like a forced move over a natural one.
3 - By my graph you were the third one to join the wagon (#350) behind me and Brent. Again its a following the popular opinion for the most part since again you shift to where people already are.

Bolded parts both prove the afformentioned parts and some other points. Biggest one is the way she is putting pressure on lunatic here. In a few situations (bolded 2, 3) she almost seems to be pushing a policy lynch by arguing that he is very hard to read and a mostly useless player as opposed to scum. If you look at the case on him its (ironically) a sheep of king, lurking (what about pine here?) and... lunatic sheeping reads. Also remember we showed lurking is out the window, so its basically "what king said, also luntic is sheeping".

Lurking is out the window? How do you figure? You were just about to use that in an argument about me avoiding the game...

Context is key. Lunatic didnt lurk, he flaked. I went over that with Uite already. So that part of your case on him is gone.

Policy lynch? Yeah, I guess it could be misconstrued as that, but that's not what I was going for. It's better to see his flip, and who was pushing for it, who avoided it, how people were reacting to his wagon, etc. By no means was it a punishment for not being active.

Not policy lynched based upon lurking but based upon unreadability/useless. What else would this

It seems like of anyone, he's the least helpful to town

or this

Luna is, and will probably remain one of the hardest reads for town to get because of his fence-sitting, and general lack of compliance for participating in this game.

mean?

As for Pine, he never left my radar, and I specifically mentioned how that was frustrating, but that was fixed with his PM to the mod, etc, and Uite fixed Luna's lurking, but hadn't fixed the scummy play, IMO.

So Pine is still scummy then? First Ive heard you say that for quite a while. Nice lining up Uite for tomorrow after my town flip though.

You also ignored my point where you called lunatic scum for sheeping a case when your entire case becomes a sheep of KTS once we get rid of the invalid lurking part.

There is also a great way for get the wagons BACK onto the people that she just has brushed aside (pine, mirror, DP), as that will not do anything to effect the current reads on those players. She also says this in a way that implies that she thinks the three are scum, two of which she just brushed off as scum earlier in the same post. Next post is some more setting up of logical fallacy (which is saying it MUST be one of X or Y when it could be both, or neither) that will push the opposite lynch of DP/Uite for whoever survives.

Well, I didn't think it was both, I thought it was Uite. And clearly it's not. Now that DP's flip was town, I was going to look at Uite again; however, I digress. You seem to be putting me in a pickle.

Im not forcing you to vote in a certain direction. Look at what Uite tired to do near the end of the day. If you think he is scum, you push his lynch. Instead you seem like you are trying to justify a lynch of me so I will not be around to push your lynch in return. Do you really think I am going to flip scum here? It seems like you dont think I will, or am a neutral read, from most of your posts.

After that post, singer just stops scumhunting for the most part. We have subtle shots at people, and mostly just discussion about what to do at deadline. Again interesting are things like this:

Both are quite scummy. But Luna is useless to us right now, and we have no idea if we can depend on a replacement before deadline hits.

This refers to DP and Uite, when singer has actually never said much of anything scummy about DP this entire game. The one line in the first quoted post is basically the entire reasoning I have found so far that would consititute a DP lynch excluding "deadline reasons". The mindset here reads heavily of trying to justify a vote for DP without really putting any direct pressure on him, while still leaving the Uite wagon for the lynch, or the next days lynch if DP goes through.

Did you disagree with that statement? Was DP not scummy in your eyes? As far as scumhunting, that's all relative. I had come in as a replacement, read the thread, posted my thoughts, and responded to Uite accordingly. What did you do?

DP was a slight town read for me. I would have rather lynched about half the playerlist over him (Uite, tans, Mirror) he was about the same read as you. If you are asking what scumhunting I did... quite a bit. I think that I have been one of the most active people case wise for the entire game, trying to justify most of my reads (Brent, Mirror and Uite day one). Replacing is difficult, I will give you that, but you came in and mostly sheeped players reads.

[LlamaFluff]

2/2

Blah...while I really thought Luna/Uite was the better lynch, I don't like how DP's made it a more difficult decision. DP, your vote seems more out of desperation than anything else...what's the reason for it this time?

Again, a really bizzare bash of DP out of nowhere, just piggybacking on the DP hate that is coming from others. If you bother to read singer, you can see that she is laying down the framework to vote DP, but there never is a foundations. There NEVER is a mention of a case. For that matter there is very little mention of a Uite case, just telling us where to look for it. Most of the time she spends is picking up others attacks and pushing them with a lot of noise.

When Brent makes a move to put DP at L-1, singer goes off on him for doing so, while she apparently thinks DP is scummy at the same time.

Again, you keep pulling out that I'm "randomly bashing" DP, and that you "never saw signs of a case against him", and yet you keep quoting where I'm spouting my suspicions. I ask again, how innocent did DP look at the end of the day? His vote was scummy, and I was mad at him for messing with my reads on him yet again. Can you explain what your case on Uite was again? Because as far as I could tell, you were pushing Luna, yet conveniently kept your vote on Uite for the rest of the day, while I was the one pressuring the replacement for answers.

You werent making a case against DP really, just taking small shots at some of his posts for doing things that are expected of players in that situation (like the self-preservation vote). The way they were said, it also seemed like you did not want to move to a DP wagon, but wanted to leave it as a possibility so that you could shift over to that wagon if you ever thought that it was needed, and wanted to justify it near deadline well. That or be able to jump right on him the next day if Uite flipped town. Again, I had DP as a middling/slight town read at the end of the day.

Just about my entire case was on lunatic, he was very scummy throughout the entire game. Either way, you are trying to change the point here of what my case against you is by bringing up you pushing Uite.

- Votes for case but never push for what he believes in. Frequently being fine with voting "either".

Quotes to back that up? I remember saying I would vote X or Y over a different player a few times, or at deadline, but I would like yo see what you are talking about

- Night Kill choice subtly points to Llama-scum, with his "town read" killed off, he can easily push accusations on others without having to feint changing his mind.

I killed a town read that thought I was town?

Uite is probably scum in his interaction with Llama. Others from townish to scummy are probably Mirror > Singer> King > Tanstalas.

This is foolish. Your first pick for scum with me is who I tried to get lynched all of yesterday, who tried to get me lynched at the end of day one, and is trying to get me lynched today? Your second picks are the player that I pushed most of yesterday and the player I am pushing today?

Open question to everyone actually. Who do you think even works as a partner to me? I have to have a partner if I am scum. Think about that before you start blindly calling me scum here. Paying attention to where partners may lie is a great way to get a good read on people.

[LlamaFluff]

Im thinking that there is going to be zero chance of getting out of this one today so im going to just claim VT and move on in that regards. I know more WIFOM, but if I was scum I would have insta-self hammered when it became obvious about five pages ago that I was going to be lynched to not give any reads as to who a partner would be.

I think the scumteam is singer and pine/concession. You guys are going to need to massclaim tomorrow, I would say that singer goes first and popcorn from there.

1. Llama you didn't answer this one.

...

Other votecount thoughts:

Pine is only has a shot to be scum if Mirror and tans are town
Uite is probably town
Pine town should mean at least of Mirror, tans scum
Pine-singer partners? Mirror-tans?

Why? These are your thoughts, but I don't feel as though they should be left unexplained.

-The wagon on Pine has two flipped town on it. If Mirror and tans are town, it means four town were a part of that wagon. If you look at past games, almost every single all town wagon appears on scum. If the two are town, it means that Pine jumps up in chances to be scum. If one is scum, Pine is more likely town.
-Uite I have explained more then once
-Pine/Singer are both scummy and the slots ignore eachother, which is very common to see from newbie scum players. Tans-Mirror interactions seem to simply acknowledge reads that others have on them but never really support them strongly, just enough to try and get a little town-cred with one flip if both are scum.


For the second point, yeah I said it. Its something that is not worth speculating about for the most point. I just feel like the only people in this game who can possibly be made out as my partner is/were Pine and KTS. Pine everyone has been calling town and now his replacement is attacking me, and everyone thinks KTS is town. You do need to look past things like that to an extent, and what I said was a call for people to really think "If Llama flips scum, then what?". I would essentially of had to been bussing the entire game to be scum here if it wasnt with KTS.

3. Oh hey just noticed this while ISOing you.

...
Pine

I have changed my tune on

due to not really liking the wagon that is forming on him. Most of the people that are voting him are people that I have somewhat of a scumread on, which is a sign of a mislynch in most games. This coupled with the reaction posts that Pine has been putting up make me thing that he is town.
...

You never said Pine was scum. Your previous posts on Pine seemed to imply that you thought he was town, what with the defending him and all. But after this "change of tune" you proceed to call him town for what I believe is the entire remainder of the game.

I had been waivering a bit in notes given what he was saying. The point I posted that though was when the wagon showed up and I became convinced of him being town.

Remember for when I get hammered here. Tomorrow you guys massclaim. If a doctor/cop claim, you finish popcorning BEFORE they claim targets, if both claim, or one gets countered. Compare their results and targets to what they had been saying in the game, the correct lynch should become obvious. If someone claims a cop with a guilty, dont blindly follow it since it will be lylo. It will be either them or their target unless they are gambiting, but again just take it easy and look at the facts. No one is confirmed in this game unless there is a cop and doc claim with a flipped scum RB.

Im still slightly concerned about tans, and I would not be shocked if it was tans/pine instead of singer/pine. I really think that Uite is town, and probably Mirror and KTS.

Someone feel free to hammer, I sure wish you wouldnt but it sure looks inevitable at this point. Still say that the biggest arguement for me being town here is that no one makes any sense for me to be scum with actually, but know whats going to happen.

Singer/Concession/Tans... If its Concession there is a chance of Uite scum again due to the "slip" by Pine earlier, but thats about it. Order probably something like... Singer/Concess, Concess/tans, mirror/tans. I take back what I said earlier, Concession/Pine starts massclaim, popcorn from there.

[LlamaFluff]

All?

Thats something like 10+ games probably if you want to span my entire time on the site and that would take a little bit of digging, not to mention any games played on a different account.

This is my most recent though. Even though its about 8 months ago, havent drawn scum in a long time.

I am willing to lynch either of these two, but I still slightly prefer lunatic, although that vote for singer by DP makes a great case for him over lunatic. I would be willing to lynch either at this point.

Scum is some combo of Uite/Mirror/tans. I would be completely fine with lynching either of the first two players and will definantly be looking into the last two. I really think that Brent and Pine are town for their play, and that DP is probably town for his play mixed with the claim, but will shift my vote for a lynch if needed.

In the posts above you expressed that Luna/Uite is your final decision, but you kept nagging about being find with lynching either of the competing wagons as if you actually don't want Luna/Uite to be the lynch meat. That coupled with the fact that you never push your scum reads convince me of your scummy interactions.

A lynch of anyone is technically slightly better then a no lynch in that situation. I would rather have the lynch of someone I have a town read on which gives a lot of information to work on for subsequent days and keep town at the ideal odd ammount of players then no lynch. Especially as the lynch wagon would have gone straight back on DP.

[LlamaFluff]

Well, I have said what i needed to say at this point. Just waiting for people to either come to their senses or a hammer. Follow what I said to do tomorrow if you do lynch me.

[LlamaFluff]

Despite losing the zillionth newbie game in a row (seriously I suck at these record wise) I liked my reads in this game, they were all pretty accurate. Was right on DP day one, came around on Uite (which interestingly enough led to my lynch indirectly), early Pine and KTS read were right. Gut on Tans was correct, singer read was right. I even was right in my notes when I had Mirror is scum or town PR.

Just about everyone played a solid game if we remove the game ending self-hammer. I know of two scenarios where it is acceptable (scum self-hammering to kill discussion, town PR in open setup with one scum left getting countered where town has a mislynch to burn) even then the second one is suboptimal.

Tans played a very interesting game. I think if a lynch got pushed on him it actually would have gone through, and I thought it was going to happen for a while that last day. I do disagree with lurking at the endgame as scum, infact lurking as a whole as scum. Scum dominate games they get control of, since they own the pace of the game and where wagons pop up.

If anyone has any specific things they want me to comment on I will.