Newbie 1052 - Endgame

[Concerned]

Ello all.

I will read the thread and share my thoughts some time tomorrow.
My timezone is +2 for what it's worth.

I also thought I was going to replace in a while ago and therefore have read the first 10 pages or so already.
- Concerned

[Concerned]

Please don't hammer before I have a chance to say anything.
My varsity internet was down the whole of yesterday but I'm going to post in 2 hours or so after lectures.

From what I remember mute didn't come across as scum to me.

[Concerned]

Bare with me. I'm doing a complete reread and some of you guys like to talk a lot (my predecessor included )

[Concerned]

Phew that was a mission, firstly a little introduction as to my experience with mafia:
I've completed 6 games on Mafia Scum including 4 newbies and 2 mini's, although most of the games were lost on the old forum.
I've also played more games than I can count on another gaming forum and am a moderator there although I do acknowledge the world of difference between mafia scum games and games on other forums which tend to be slightly more oriented around power roles.
For those of you who didn't read above my timezone is +2 and I'm generally very busy in the morning and evenings so my activity times are

usually

in the afternoon or after 8PM at night.

In terms of my actual posts it is unlikely I will post big detailed walls analyzing every post a person has made as I've seen enough of those types of cases to have very little faith in them (I will elaborate more on this when I am discussing the mute/workdawg exchange). That said this post will probably be fairly long as I have to catch up with 20 odd pages of content.

Anyway on to the game, a very interesting one I might add and one thing that I feel hasn't got enough attention is the fact that you lynched scum on day 1, this puts us in an extremely good position and those responsible deserve a pat on the back. It means we could potentially mis-lynch twice and the game will be reduced to 3 players before the scum even have a shot at victory.

On to player analysis (in the order they occur to me):

Mute

So far I believe he has played fairly town and the current cases on him aren't particularly valid. The whole early table argument was a complete waste of time, I don't have a problem with him hammering stels and the current trend of players accusing him of "jumping on the wagon to appear more town" is ridiculous because anyone with half a brain could see this would have the opposite effect.
The argument between him and workdawg seemed very town vs town to me, each player stretching for good reasoning but mostly coming up with rubbish. Even having said that I think mute had far better points as workdawg did some pretty idiotic things in the early stages of the game and mute was frankly quite justified in his suspicion.
Lastly I would like to mention that stels was quite vocal about getting mute lynched at one point fairly early on the wagon (I think he was third?) and in a manner that I don't see as bussing at all. It appeared to me that stels was more trying to make an opportunistic leap onto a townie.
I am perfectly willing to defend my above stance should be wish me to.

To finalize I find mute to be pro-town.

WorkDawg

As I said above he has done some stupid things and said some things that haven't made all that much sense but in the end I am definitely getting a noob town read from him. Certain things he say just ring true with what I have come to expect from eager noob town in the past. Tunneling, paranoia, perceiving meaning where there is none to be found - and lately his posts have improved dramatically. I feel like he is doing well lately apart from his continued tunneling on mute. As someone said (sundry?) I also find the fact that stels buddied him mercilessly to be more of a town tell than a scum tell, it's just to fekking obvious man. I don't believe a player of stels caliber would be blatant about it.
Further more Dawg's twilight reaction to the stels hammer to me seems genuine. I feel like he honestly believed a mistake had been made.

To finalize I find WorkDawg to be pro-town.

ThePlague

I disagree with a lot of his stances, I disagree with a lot of the things he's said, but there is little question in my mind that he is newb town for many many reasons.
If nothing but his complete lack of certainty. You get a feel for these things.

To finalize I find Plague to be pro-town.

Neuky

For the vast majority of the game I have found neuky to be town, I've liked his posts and agreed with many things he has said. He's come across very logical and well reasoned which is a stark contrast to some of the other players in this game. I didn't like the fact that he didn't vote for stels at the end of the last day but it does kind of fit with his slightly-reluctant to vote meta.
Also stels takes a stab at him right before he is lynched in what I believe was a desperate attempt to get a wagon started on someone else, agreeing with popular town opinion at the time.
I'm not absolutely certain about you, for the simple reason that you seem like the type of player who is smart enough to hide it well if you are scum but for now

I find neuky to be pro-town.

- To be continued (good stuff to follow) I have soccer practice. until later tonight.

[Concerned]

OK so as you may have guessed that means I believe the last of the two scum is in one of the two lurker slots by process of elimination.
I may not always find scum from the get go but I pride myself in good town reads.
The AngryScientist/Asano/Sundy slot looks the least scummy of those two. Asano said some things to make me suspicious, but the other two have seemed fairly clean. As for the Naben/Veridis/Sordas slot there is very little content from the slot and the only player the slot has attacked is one that I know for sure is pro-town. I'd like to see more indepth analysis from the slot in terms of all of the players and not just slot.

For what it's worth I think Ty did a very good job, the only marginally scummy thing he did was go for nacho early in the game and for those who have not played with town-nacho before (I have) his play style in the early stages of the game can be quite confusing, he always lays low towards the beginning of the game and usually really gets into his stride after a few lynches have been established.

Now I know me going after the lurkers may seem like a bit of a cop-out but considering we only have one scum remaining I think I may be onto something.
Since I can't really tear apart them due to their small amounts of content (I could make a case on asano but it could be dismissed as noob errors) I can still highlight my point in two ways firstly.

VoteCounts:

The first couple vote counts are largely irrelevant RVS related counts and I would say the first relevant one is votecount 4.

The Fourth Vote Count - replacements!

theplague42
Neuky
Mute - 4 -

theplague42, Workdawg

,

Stels

,

asano234

Workdawg - 3 - Neuky, Mute, Ty
asano234
veridis
Stels
Ty
Nachomamma8

No Lynch

Not Voting - 2 - veridis, Nachomamma8

With nine alive, it's five to lynch!

Day One's deadline expires on the 8th of February at 11:07am AEDST (GMT+11).

This is one of the reasons why I feel mute is town, at this point we know stels is scum and here we see him jump onto the wagon before it even mute really looks like he is going down so I'm very reluctant to write it off as bussing. Asano also jumps onto this wagon citing "the table" as a reason, not justifying why he finds the table scummy but just saying the table itself is scummy. I'm inclined to view this as an opportunistic attempt following his scum buddy on a townie wagon.

The Twelfth Vote Count - Good Day, Good Sir

theplague42
Neuky - 1 - Stels
Mute
Workdawg
Sundy
veridis
Stels - 5 - Nachomamma8, Ty, theplague42, Sundy, Mute
Ty - 1 - veridis
Nachomamma8

Not Voting - 2 - Neuky, Workdawg

Live, from New York, it's Saturday night!

Stels, Mafia Goon, Lynched Day One

It is now Night. Any actions may now be sent. Day Two will commence in 72 hours. In addition, veridis is being prodded.

The next votecount of note is the hammer, here we have (at least in my view) three of the most townie players starting the wagon with Sundy and Mute following. I'm mostly posting this to illustrate that TY was more than willing to and indeed was one of the founding people on the stels wagon, in my opinion the final two wagoners

could

be bussing to get off a sinking ship but it's hard to credibly argue that TY would bus his scum buddy and push the wagon from such an early stage.

Stels Reads

-Asano234: Null-read. You can't expect me to get a read on someone who posts fluff for about 80% of the time (sorry Asano234!). He has no opinion on the game so far, otherwise he would have added something to the thread. I mean, 11 pages already, may seem short, but with all the walls, I'm sure there's something that he can catch onto.

-Mute: Mixed read. Not a null-read, but it's either aggresive town, or arrogant scum. Case improved my read on him towards the town side, yet I still doubt him for now.

-Nachomamma8: Townish-vibe. Does his job, asks questions that actually get you thinking. A bit under-the-radar, but hey, a few others are too, including myself as well.

-Neuky: Townish-vibe, weird gut feeling though. Posts at regular intervals. Not too much information, but he does post some content. Generally, I think, the person who is under the radar for the most part.

-theplague42: Town. Probably one of my most solid reads into the game so far. Certain scummy elements early in the game, other than that, he's solid.

-Ty: Townish-Null. Sort of builds cases in his character profiles, but has gone quiet a bit (thank god, less walls). Under the radar, but has his issues IRL, I don't blame him.

-Veridis: Null. You have to understand me, 4 posts, but he piqued my interest here. He took a curious position here, went after Ty who we have forgotten about with an sort of logical POV. Have to see more for a definite read.

-Workdawg: Newb-town + scummy. My read hasn't changed much, but you appear more town now with the recent posts. Still doubt you with some stuff like "OMG, I painted a target on mah back! I'm gonna die tonight", just like Mute if he sees you flip scum.

I'm very glad nacho made stels do this before he flipped. Notice he basically gives everyone a town read except for the sordas/sundy slots, it's true that they didn't post much up until that point but the point is we KNOW stels was scum, that means he was in a unique position to know exactly who was town and who wasn't. At this point in the game mute and workdawg were the most likely to be lynched so I believe he gave them both a little "disclaimer" so he could jump on either wagon without excuse but to me stels is the type of player who wouldn't dare label his scum partner as a town read.


To summarise my thoughts I would bet that our last scum is in {Sordas, Sundy}. I come to this conclusion via process of elimination, some of the subtle things stels has said as well as the general attitude of the other players. If I am wrong I would say neuky would be the next most likely suspect. Neuky because of his slight unwillingness to be on the stels hammer at the end of day 1 and his "keeping under the radar attitude".

Please note that me reading the game from start to finish isn't going to help as much as the content that is posted from when I've joined the game. We still have enough lots of time today and potentially 2 mislynches to stuff up so I am very hopeful about our situation. Perhaps the first order of business is to make sure we aren't pursuing the wrong people.

I welcome any questions or comments.

[Concerned]

Ok well firstly I am not TY, my thoughts don't follow the exact path as his and I can only guess as to what he was thinking. Also mentioning Ty is kinda pointless as I am in the position of knowing he's not worth pursuing as a scum candidate for obvious reasons.

That said I agree with a lot of things he said, in my opinion most of the things he said made a lot of sense, however I will do my best to give you my interpretation of his play first I'll adress the post you mentioned.

The first thing that jumped out to me was in ISO #5, point 4). He accuses me of wagon hopping and states the following:

By ISO #22, Workdawg is once again voting Mute, apparently the wagon for my lynch wasn’t going well-enough for Workdawg. To me, there’s a clear distinction on how you’ve been voting.

Instead of trying to hunt for scum, you’re trying to find the easiest way to get someone lynched. This is playing for the win condition of the scum, not the town.

Reading through his ISO, it looks like he's been doing the same thing. He was 3rd onto my wagon, and I don't necessarily blame him for that. I think I was the obvious target for a wagon at that point. But the reason for hopping on my wagon is what concerns me. Did he really feel that I was scum, or did he simply see me as a soft target? Both Nacho and Stels had expressed that they thought my play was just terrible newb town, but he didn't feel the same. I obviously can't comment on why he got on my case, but I can speculate.

I feel like he probably targeted me because I looked like an easy mislynch rather than an extra scummy player. He seemed to have a much bigger issue with Nacho than he did with me at the time, but he still came after me.

Firstly I don't think Ty was ever really serious about lynching nacho at that time. It's natural to be suspicious of authority at times, no one wants to be screwed over by the person who is supposed to be helping them. Also for people who haven't played with nacho he can come across as suspicious in the early game he is the type of player who doesn't enjoy the beginning of the game at all, at least from what I've observed.
As for his suspicion of you I think it was completely justified, when I first read through the game you were also my prime suspect for the beginning of the game. You did do a lot of scummy things in that early portion of the game I think you will agree with this. Your analysis of the situation is what I meant when I say that newb town often

look

for scumminess in every post. You look at a post and instead of objectively analyzing it you try and

find

scumminess. One of the major aspects of being town is we don't know anything. If you look at it from his position, he had no idea you weren't scum he has no idea about anyone alignment really, why is it more likely that he was going for an easy mis-lynch than the simple fact that he thought you were the scummiest player. You say both Nacho and stels thought you were noob town but that is THEIR opinion not Ty's Nacho has many many games under his belt and maybe has a better read over what constitutes noob town than Ty did, and Stels was scum... I mean really he thought you were newb town because HE KNEW YOU WERE NOOB TOWN. Scum are the informed minority, as townies we can only make the best decisions we can. Townies can be wrong. You are stretching here. You immediately see the scum intent in Ty and don't consider his views as a townie. The plague jumped on your wagon as well, why aren't you accusing him of exactly the same thing?

I think his statement holds more scumminess now though. He voted for Stels when all the heat was already on. He was only 2nd to vote, but it certainly seemed like it was warming up.

Up until Ty hopped on me, he hadn't yet voted for anyone. Now, in his exit post, he casts a vote for someone whom he "has mixed feeling about". He has said before that he doesn't feel the need to use his vote to apply pressure, but then what is he doing right now? He didn't build anything even close to resembling a case against Stels, he simply suggested that one of the experienced players is probably scum. With the typo from Drench saying Nacho is being replaced, the only other experienced player to vote for would have been Stels. It seems wholely contradictory to his play style before.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 8#p2763078

Here TY gives his plausible theories he clearly states his opinions on possible scum teams and is willing to act on this one, he was also the second one on the wagon as you said, that hardly constitutes real

heat

when it comes to just jumping on the bandwagon. Once again I feel you are stretching to make this vote scummy as opposed to what it actually was - a townie acting on one of his plausible theories.

I feel like if his exit post was genuine, he would have stuck to his playstyle and attempted to build a case against the player he felt was most scummy, instead of completely switching it up and casting what can only be described as a "pressure vote." Did he see that my profiles went over so well that he thought he'd try the same thing to get heat off his replacement?

Did you even read the post where Ty voted for stels, it seems at that point Ty had narrowed down his suspects and possible scum pairings, even if stels had flipped town he would have been able to narrow down his possible scum pairings for future lynches, it was a smart vote and you are completely mis-representing him by saying it was a "pressure vote" that's not what he said that's your own

wrong

interpretation of events. Almost scum painting, this entire game you have seemed to find a person and then convinced yourself of that person's scumminess by going through everything that person has done and interpreting it in a way that makes them scummy. I'm not blaming you for this, and in fact it's something that I find newb-town players do a lot. You just need to keep in mind that your interpretation isn't always right, especially when you are trying to hard to make evidence fit that just isn't there.

The other thing that I noticed is that he really didn't do a very good job of defending himself against the initial concerns with his posts.

In ISO #4 he attempts to address the issues of; long posts, too much of a teacher, and tunneling nacho. An analysis of his defense for each follows:

1) Long Posts
He says, generally... Sorry. I don't understand how this is a scum tell. Please explain how long posts would be used to lurk.

He doesn't even really defend himself here. He just kind of dodges this, IMO. It was explained that his long posts were easier to hide misinformation in and that longer posts would look less like lurking than short quips. The argument at that point was that his posts were just filled with general advice and not anything directly useful to the game. I've already said that I don't feel like this was really scummy anymore, but he didn't bother to address it when it was an issue.

2) Being a Teacher
He'd feel bad about not teaching as an SE.

This is reasonable, but again, it doesn't really defend his actions from the issues at the time. It's easy to say that he was teaching, but for the reasons outlined above, it didn't seem like he was doing it in the best interests of the town. Again, he doesn't really address the issue. Just kind of dodges it.

3) Tunneling Nacho
This one I don't really have any issues with. Interestingly, it's also "the most reasonable response" he saw to why he was voted for.

Are you kidding me? Why should he bother defending his long posts or his teaching THOSE AREN'T SCUM TELLS AT ALL. Really you are trying to hard here. He's right in saying that him tunneling nacho was the only reason he thought was valid because it's the only marginally scummy thing he's done.

===========

In short your case agaisnt him is rubbish, you are stretching and finding meaning where there is none. I'm not taking a dig, I understand you are a new player but seriously that isn't a case. If I went through all your posts and tried to find scumminess in them I could make a wall so big it would dwarf that Chinese monstrosity, but to me scum hunting is about finding hidden agenda's and subtle malicious intent.

Someone give me a summarized version of Mute's argument so I can illustrate why I disagree.

[Concerned]

EBWOP: I didn't read this thread as thouroughly as I would have liked, I did skim parts of it partially because it would have taken hours to read through everything carefully, hours I don't have - but mostly to preserve my own sanity.

[Concerned]

Wait is mute getting all this heat because he is no longer active?
That's a stupid argument, mute has had pressure on him before and plenty of it and responded at the time.

There are many many reasons why he could be laying low for now, maybe he is just sick and tired of defending himself, maybe he is busy in real life or he's simply lost interest in the game, it happens to the best of us.
Why would scum-mute defend himself so vigorously at earlier stages of the game but give up now? You can't credibly argue that mute's lack of activity is a scum tell imo.

[Concerned]

@Concerned
Can you elaborate more on why you think Sundy may be scum? Is it just process of elimination or something more?

It is largely process of elimination, I also didn't say Sundy was scum, I just feel like the last scum is in the set of {Sundy, Sordas}. When asano was playing that slot I felt it was extremely scummy yes.
He voted for stels and even though it was a bit late he does get town points for that but are you sure you aren't falling into the trap of thinking someone who agrees with your views is town? Hypothetically if you are town, someone agreeing with you doesn't make them town as well. Perhaps they find what your are saying useful to their own agenda.

@ThePlague, I will do so . Just seemed like the easiest way at the time, do you want me to repeat what I said in a better format? Have you tried highlighting that post to makes things a little clearer it might help.

[Concerned]

@Sordros, Your current vote is on my slot, how do you feel that stels and this slot have interacted in a likely way that we are scum buddies?
It also seems like your main concern with this slot is based on Ty's silly RvS comment, do you really think it's likely scum buddies would be fingering each other so early in the game? Knowing either of them could be lynched, and their "breadcrumbs" discovered. Do you think it's possible that Ty just made a lucky shot in the dark?

@Mute, I do find your hammer a little bit suspicious, did you consider the consequences of the hammer? Did you expect people to react the way they did to your hammer?

[Concerned]

Sure, it could also have been a lucky shot in the dark at Stels, but that's a 1/8 shot (around 12.5% chance), a pretty slim shot which would probably be dismissed by anyone. Of course this is just WIFOM, but considering that town would never expect scum to unearth their scum buddies easily like that, why not do it and gain a little town-vibe?

It's a 2/8 shot, or 25% not exactly the worst odds in the world.

Are you honestly expecting to lynch someone based on an rvs comment however coincidental it may appear. You have to give more, make a case, do SOMETHING you've said very little, I know my slot has actually been exceedingly town, and I'll be damned if you paint this slot as scummy because stels made a lucky shot in the RvS.

I'd also like you to answer what scum motivation you think hypothetical scum-ty had for fingering stels.

[Concerned]

So you hammer?
Best hope I'm wrong and mute is scum...

[Concerned]

I don't see why we shouldn't just lynch sordos right now.
He's certainly not worth bringing into lylo.

[Concerned]

You prematurely hammered a player who had not replied to various comments who who I at least was still waiting a defense..
You hammered said player for very little solid reasoning, no I take that back. You never gave any reason for hammering mute. None. You never said why you thought he was scummy, you just hammered him. You spent what little activity you did contribute going on about an insignificant RvS comment about my slot and then you conveniently decide to hammer mute.

Now it is possible that Neuky, Dawg or Sundy are scum, I have a solid town read on all but the last one of them, but it is possible. I just can't see myself lynching any one of them today. If I'm wrong about you being scum (and I really don't think I am) I will reevaluate with the the last 2 players in lylo, assuming I get there, but I don't see myself lynching anyone else today.

[Concerned]

I couldn't agree more with what neuky had to say, really just puts it very succinctly.

To me irregardless of all of that though the biggest thing for me is his day 2 play, he avoids voting for mute the whole day, to me blatantly avoiding a wagon he knows to be town and then hammers in desperation when it becomes apparent the mute wagon wouldn't have gotten hammered without his aid.

I also agree that stels reads are quite profound when it comes to his scum lists, as scum he knew the alignment of all the players, to me he didn't want to risk advocating his scum buddy as a "town read" as he didn't want to seem associated with his scum buddy but he didn't want to blatantly buss his partners slot either so why not give a null read.

Sordos said next to nothing about mute before hammering, he never really stated any good reason for doing so and those two things coupled with the fact that I have fairly strong town reads on the remaining players leads me to believe he is our last scum.

Someone asked me why I haven't voted - I'm perfectly happy to vote but the day was long (and still is) and I didn't see any reason to, I will say this; if I am wrong about sordos we will all regret not having a good day 3 discussion to reflect on but I won't worry about that now. I'm confident we have our man.

I'm going to let sordos have a say and then I'm gonna place my vote.

[Concerned]

I'm still here. I'd just like to hear what dawg, sundy, and sordros have to say before I comment further.

Unless someone would like my opinion on something.

[Concerned]

Bah, I drink on Friday's and Saturdays, I shall address your case tomorrow (not that I feel it has much merit from the bits I skimmed).

[Concerned]

Sorry I flaked I suck. It's partly due to being busy in real life and partly due to the fact that I knew Sundy was scum, but I also knew I would never convince town of that.
TY <3.

Sundy's slot got a huge break not having participated for the beginning of this game. Kept us on the back foot the entire game, still caaaallllleeeeddd iitt.