Newbie 1046: Game Over

[Nobody Special]

Hi, everyone. I will do my very best to read this thread today, but Sundays are normally especially busy for me. If I don't post today, I promise all sorts of delicious posting tomorrow.

And,

unvote

[Nobody Special]

So, hi. I'm back from V/LA. And I have 16 pages to read.

@Mod: I hate to ask, but is there any way at all we can get a deadline extension until Monday?

I'm not really sure I'll be able to do my best with deadline two days away.

But I'm reading now, in any event.

[Nobody Special]

Okay. I'm through page four. I don't like making a lot of concrete accusations while not reading the Current Day, so I'll just say that I'm forming some opinions. Not sure how much later I'm going to be up tonight, but tomorrow is pretty much going to be devoted to this game.

[Nobody Special]

Thank you!! and: My apologies abut the V/LA. I sent a PM to the Mods of all my games; since I had

just

replaced into this game, I neglected to include you.

but thank you for the extension.

[Nobody Special]

Hi. I'm on page 10.

Fascinating game.

[Nobody Special]

I am fine with no-lynch -- I fully believe the math is correct and we are better off, since we have no 'confirmed' townies, going that way.

I apologize for my lack of presence lately; RL totally swamped me yesterday, and I've not been able to fully finish iso'ing everyone in this game yet. I expect to be all caught up over the weekend.

[Nobody Special]

Hi, I'm popping in to say that I'm really not active-lurking: I was on V/LA until yesterday, but a freak California snowstorm took out my internet (and power) during that; I'm still catching up with work and Mafia. I'm caught up everywhere but here; lunch now and posting here in a couple of hours. Promise!

[Nobody Special]

(I work from home, if that wasn't clear. Sorry.)

[Nobody Special]

Ack! I'm so sorry. Too many things going on IRL. (And I'm easily distracted.)

Reading now, and (probably-huge) wall post coming.

[Nobody Special]

Vote: no lynch

Town:
Stefan
Nocmen

Neutral (ish):
hurristat

Scummish (kinda):
Zach

Scumtastic:
Haylen

Haylen is really,

really

setting off my radar. I've played with her before, and she's just not the Haylen I know and love.

Stefan is very town.

I need to stop replacing into games. I always seem to get into the slots that are the worst-perceived.

@Mod: Some mods have a rule that no-lynch only requires half the living players. Will it take 3 or 4 votes for no lynch?

[Nobody Special]

Exactly.

[Nobody Special]

HOW CAN YOU NOT KNOW WHO YOUR FELLOW PLAYERS ARE?

[Nobody Special]

I agree with Massclaim.

[Nobody Special]

I also vote Haylen goes first. NOW.

[Nobody Special]

You generally want the scummiest players to claim first, so f they fakeclaim they can be counterclaimed. Just my opinion.

[Nobody Special]

I am a vanilla townie.

[Nobody Special]

So. The scum must be players whom claimed early in case they were counterclaimed.

*looks pointedly at Zach*

And the scum also pointedly declare other people as scum. It's okay, though, I think both you and Zach are scum. So we can lynch either today.

Vote: Zach

[Nobody Special]

Interesting. No quickhammer.

....which basically proves my point. (Almost.)

[Nobody Special]

Obviously, because there's only two scum.

I'm telling you, it's Haylen + Zach.

[Nobody Special]

This thread needs more Haylen.

And more me, but I'm posting now.

I'm still convinced it's zach/Haylen.

[Nobody Special]

When I said "more Haylen," what I really meant was MORE HAYLEN WITH MORE CONTENT.

(I know, pot, kettle, etc., but still.)

[Nobody Special]

This:

Oh, whoops, I thought all the setups had cops. -_-

and this:

If I were mafia, I would know what the setup was. I obviously don't.

match.

I could be shifting here, to thinking hurri is mafia.. But I'm sold on the idea of a Haylen/zach team. I need to re-read H & z.

The rest of you need to post stuff.

[Nobody Special]

Wow, it's been 4 days since I've been here. Sorry about that.

However, it's very late at night, and I need to get to bed. Will post tomorrow. With bonus substance!

[Nobody Special]

Wow, it's been 4 days since I've been here. Sorry about that.

However, it's very late at night, and I need to get to bed. Will post tomorrow. With bonus substance!

Oh, crap. TOTALLY forgot about this game.

I have to go into town this afternoon, but I will post my cases on zach and Haylen before I go to bed tonight. (Translation: less than 15 hours.)

[Nobody Special]

Hi.

[Nobody Special]

I'm starting with Haylen because -- well, because she's the one I iso'd first. Forthwith:

More often than not, I do make it to endgame - sometimes because I'm scum, more recently because I've started replacing into games that are almost over.

There doesn't seem to be an option for Haylen living until endgame because she's town. To be honest, I've played with her in a few Newbies but I can't recall her alignment. Let's just say this does not look good for her.

Add to this that the scumteam hasn't quickhammered either me or zach -- that proves that either myself or zach is scum. But I'm working on Haylen's case right now -- zach's case will wait for my next post.

Vote Haylen just because nobody voted for her and I have heard she is good at staying under the radar

Stefan: How did you know I'm difficult to catch as scum?

Hmmm. Freudian slip?

Let's also look at this: four days, two lynches (nolynch on D3 and we haven't yet lynched today). Haylen's a better scumhunter than that. All of her cases have not led to a single scumlynch. Why? Because she's scum, and she wouldn't push for lynching herself or her scumpal, zach.

Let's look at some voting:

Here Haylen votes zach with absolutely no explanation AT ALL. According to the previous votecount there were no votes on zach. No one between the votecount and Haylen's vote voted for zach. Why begin a wagon with absolutely no explanation? (Coincidentally [or not], zach posts

two minutes

after Haylen's vote to say "hi." Not too incriminating, as he did the same thing to me today. But.) This was January 31.

In her next post she does analyze zach. But let's see how many votes zach accumulates? By February 8, he had two more votes. Haylen was still the wagon leader. By February 9 there were only two people (Haylen and AwesomePoe). Then, by February 12 (the final votecount of Day Two), Haylen has switched to the AwesomePoe wagon to successfully scumlynch a townie. Note, please, that zach is also on this wagon. Note, as well, that Haylen hammered. What did she say about this? Hmmm. First, she's

not willing

to hammer AwesomePoe. A full

minute

later, she says she would deadline-hammer. Then, she did in fact, hammer near the deadline. Except, wait -- even though she said the deadline was three hours away, she conveniently 'forgot' that GLaDOS had granted an extension. How convenient. Hammering a townie and stifling discussion in one short post. Hmmm.

Early on Day Three, Haylen points to her perfect scum record while also pointing out her abysmal town record. (We can safely ignore her SK record, as there are no SKs in Newbie Games.) She also tries to explain away her not-really-deadline-but-let's-call-it-that-anyway hammer.

And

she mentions again that zach

must

be scum. Distancing much?

Oh, let me quote this one. You really have to see this one to believe it:

If I was scum and wanted to end day early to stop Nobody Special from giving his views, I would have killed him during the night. Thus the only explanation is that I was telling the truth when I said I forgot we had an extension.

Who died Night Two? Ghostlin. Very townie, by anyone's standards. That's what scum do -- they kill the Towniest players so they have someone else to cast suspicion on in the remaining days. And no, scumHaylen wouldn't kill me, because, even on Day Three, I looked, if not scummy, at least anti-Town. I admit it. I lurked badly through this game, and for that I'm sorry. I had a combination of RL strangling me and a couple other unforeseen things. Perfect for Haylen and zach to leave me alive, and point their fingers.

Another:

Haylen: Somethink doesn't add up. You said that learning if you have scum-Haylen or town-Haylen is easy, so why do you win so often as scum?

To be honest, I haven't got a clue

She wins so often as scum BECAUSE SHE'S VERY GOOD AT IT.

Is Zach a player in this game or the mod? If he's a player ask him about my meta, he knows it well enough. I presume it's something to do with being able to talk yourself out of 99% of situations as scum and barely any as town.

I called her out on this. In hindsight, I think it was merely a clever ruse to try and deflect attention from the Haylen/zach team.

I'm pretty sure me and Zach aren't scum together. Zach probably is, I'm not.

I'm coming round to seeing a NS scum at the moment. Purely because he's telling me I should post content, when he hasn't really posted much himself.

Going to re-read Nikitakit and Hurristat.

Why did you say "pretty sure"? Either zach IS your scumpartner, or you're Town (which you had already fakeclaimed) -- in which case you have no scumpartner. I posit that this is half scumslip/half an attempt to deflect.

Finally, since we know there was a cop, and there's no Doc claim, there's two possibilities: We have a Doc who is alive and NOT CLAIMING, or there's no Doc, thus no roleblocker, and therefore the scumteam forgot to send in a kill Night One.

Well, that took two hours.

zach next. I'll try to do it before falling asleep (it's 3am now) but if not, look for it in the morning.

[Nobody Special]

(The audience watches in rapt fascination as Nobody Special prepares to make Haylen look bad for not remembering who the Doc was. Or the Cop. Or whatever. Especially since Nobody Special didn't remember the Doc was

already dead.

The audience watches as NS's head explode in frustration.)

I know I promised the zach case this morning, but I got waylaid, and now I'm at work. Before I go to bed tonight.

[Nobody Special]

As much as zach thinks I was stalling, I really wasn't.

Actually Haylen, the only thing that really bugged me about you post wise was that bit following your lynch -1 vote of WIR. Also you have been lurking, and while lurking you have been paying attention to other games while ignoring this one... so yeah,

there's some nagging things, but you aren't at the top of my suspicions.

I think AwesomePoe is actually the most likely scum. Hurristat's recent posts have give me pause, but he would be my next suspect. Then it would probably be Deer, Haylen and Nocmen

in no paticular order.

(Nocmen's attack of me 271 in particular was just odd. Twitches me with a thought of possible buddying to Haylen.)

That leaves StefanB and Ghostlin, who strike me as town.

Vote: AwesomePoe (L-1)

Here we start. Mentions almost every player in the game: common scum tactic; also includes some town reads just to look normal. Also, the scumlist includes his buddy, just for additional realism.

He also accuses Haylen again in his iso 16 and iso 19.

In his iso 27, he tries defending himself against Ghostlin's PBPA. He isn't flailing, no, he's too good for that, but he does some interesting tap-dancing.

In his iso 37, he

again

defends Haylen.

We can either do Haylen today, or zach today. I don't care which, really.

If, however, town lynches me, that's it. Game OVER. With a scum win. We don't want that, so I would really prefer we lynch either Haylen OR zach today. I'm not even pushing for one over the other. EITHER ONE IS FINE BY ME.

Nocmen, hurristat, I don't care. You guys decide on one, and I'll vote them.

[Nobody Special]

Yes. I admit it's not the very best case, but most of his interaction is alternately accusing, and then defending, Haylen. He does spend some token time on other players, but the bulk of his activity is Haylen-focused. I think he's trying madly to distance himself so far from her, for obvious reasons.

[Nobody Special]

You're both right.

unvote

Vote: Haylen

I am confident they're our scumteam.

[Nobody Special]

unvote

I hate endgames.

[Nobody Special]

So, apparently, I'm not all

that

confident.

Vote: zach

[Nobody Special]

...waiting....


But I'm sure GLaDOS is so sick and tired of the activity level here, they're only checking the tread once a month. Or so.

[Nobody Special]

If he was SO obvscum, why was I the first to vote for him?

[Nobody Special]

Today, I mean.

[Nobody Special]

Well.

I think it's hurristat.

I'll tell you why after endgame.

I need to reread, but that won't happen tonight.

[Nobody Special]

@Mod:

Is there a reason we only have two weeks for this Day?

[Nobody Special]

Yep, I'm mafia. Lynch me.

I firmly believe this is the truth.

I hate 3p Lylo.

I'm going to try one more time to re-read (again) without falling into analysis paralysis.

I anticipate voting within 3 (RL) days.

[Nobody Special]

I haven't forgotten. Weekend got overly busy. Today, I'm pretty sure it'll happen.

[Nobody Special]

I would ask that you not read my combined procrastination and RL busyness as scummy. This is not really an AtE, but life just kinda got hectic lately. All my games are suffering.

Let's look at hurristat.

In his iso 3, he calls both nikitakit (now Nocmen) and himself inactive and obviously needing to post more. I highly doubt that a mafioso would lump themselves in with a townie like this, so that's a Town Point for hurri. I note that his iso 3 is also a huge catchup post, and hardly the amount of work that scum would put into a game after lurking so long (5 pages).

In his iso 8, he does call chkflip (now Nocmen) town. Could be one scum protecting another. Loses half a Town Point.

Iso 10:

ROLLIN'

Either we have a doc with a good guess or the mafia nokilled for the night. Either is a possibility a this point, but let's take the kill-free night and run with it.

Setup speculation wheeee. Either a good guess (we did turn out to have a Doc) or sure knowledge. hurri could here be either RB or Goon. If town, hurri is not the cop (according to his iso 53). I'm leaning toward Town!hurri here.

According to iso 9 and iso 11, hurri is new to this format, which really increases my town read on him.

A while back, I said I was pretty sure it's hurristat [who was scum]. I remember my thinking from that post, but I said it backwards, apparently. Here's my reasoning: hurristat is the newer player between him and Nocmen; I think Nocmen is possibly the more accomplished scum.

Also, both nikitakit (Nocmen) and chkflip (zach) replaced out. Both players who replaced out were new(ish); I can see newb-scum replacing out (in fact, it happens all the time). hurristat, on the other hand, is also new(ish) and hasn't replaced out. More Town Points.

With all the Town points I have on hurri, above, I have confidence enough to

Vote: Nocmen

I will be quite surprised if hurri is scum, and if so, I will congratulate him heartily. I'm convinced hurri is town.

Preview edit: hurri's last post convinces me even more that he's Town.

Hurri, if you want to see my case on Nocmen, I can do that, but it won't be until late tonight. (Really, honestly, tonight, not my earlier versions of timekeeping. I really apologize for my performance in this game, really.)

[Nobody Special]

Well, hurri's lack of hammer convinces me even further that he's town.

hurri, what can I do to help your decision?

Nocmen, I'm not even going to try to persuade you of anything. I'm convinced you're scum, so now I just have to convince hurri that I'm town, too.

[Nobody Special]

Also, hurri, if Nocmen were town, I would think he'd try to discredit my case for you, rather than just shrug his shoulders and vote me.

Nocmen: Okay. Sometime in the next 24 hours.

[Nobody Special]

Slot analysis, starting with nikitakit:

1. I'm not going to be without Internet access anytime soon, but I am a little busy. Can't say how it will affect my play
2. I've read the wiki, not so much the discussion forum
3. I read old games for fun, but by day two there's so much discussion that I can't keep track of all of it
4. Only one game on site -- and I played terribly. Hopefully this time won't be as bad

Vote: Ghostlin

... random.org pick; can't think of a clever reason

Very first post. Not all that experienced, and using random.org for RVS is a slight scumtell. Not an auspicious start.

By the next post, he's again apologizing for not having time for the game. Good newbscum tell. Also, sees WIR as scummy but then, in iso 3, he's says WIR isn't "scummy" but that something WIR said caught nikita's attention. But back in iso 2 WIR was nikita's Top Suspect, but then no mention of WIR for quite a while.

The constant overarching tone of his play was busy....unavailable .... sorry.... with a side helping of multiple, random scumreads. Classic newbscum.

Moving on to Nocmen:

Hello everyone, looking forward to playing with you. I read a bit of the first 2 pages, but I'll get more in later tonight, as I'm off to work.

First post, setting up the aura of "busy" and "no time" (I know, I know; I'm hardly one to talk).

Okay, I'm doing a readthrough, and my comments/answers to things.

Can you all answer these please!

4. What is your experience level? How many games have you played? Are there any complete newbies in the house? Does everyone know how the game in general works.

4. Well I've played a few games, but I'd probably still call myself a complete newbie.

In his second iso, we start seeing the lies. I only included this question for relevancy and to save space. Full post here.

Nocmen has a total of 2,193 posts on this site. Almost as many as I have (2,968), so that hardly qualifies him as "a complete newbie." Now, my 2,968 posts include over 30 completed games. I didn't have the time to count individual games through his entire history, but I did see at least 5 since January 2011 (when this one started), and several more during November/December 2010. PLUS he was in a Large Normal game I modded last year.

Complete newbie? Please. Accomplished scum is more like it.

Going on, although I firmly believe the above is enough evidence, but let's see what else there is:

He spends much of the next several posts just commenting on minutiae and asking questions. He does seem to flipflop between many players with his suspicions, and is posting just enough to not lurk but not so much as to call a lot of attention to himself.

In his iso 17, he pre-emptively sets up the 'excuse' that he would've hammered had Haylen not beaten him to it (and, if I had posted 'good content'). Good positioning, stating (for no real reason at all) that you would've done X if Y had or hadn't happened. hurri, if you're ever scum, you could learn a lot from Nocmen's play this game.

In iso 19 he again tries to put the responsibility onto me for his actions. And again in iso 20.

Iso 25 shows inside information. Normally, a newbslip like hurri's would go (most probably) unnoticed. But Nocmen

knows

there's no cop, because he's the other Goon. Oops. Silly Nocmen.

And the rest of the game he just comments on the cases everyone else has made, no original points of his own.

There, ladies and gentlemen of the hurri-jury, is why you should lynch Nocmen.

I rest my case.

[Nobody Special]

I wrote that after zach was lynched; there was only one mafioso left; if you were mafia then Nocmen would be town. But I firmly believe it's the other way around.

Make sense?

[Nobody Special]

Shit.

[Nobody Special]

dang it. well, I tried

*cries*

I probably won't be playing any more games on mafiascum. this one was, eh.... a bit too much.

Bear in mind this game lasted far longer than the average. (I take almost full responsibility for that. Sorry. )

You did well as town. Toward endgame, after rereading you over and over, I was convinced.

Nocmen, very well played, good Sir.

Haylen: You sure did look scummy to me.

Good game, everyone! And thanks to GLaDOS for modding (and putting up with me).

[Nobody Special]

So I take it most mafia games aren't three months long? >.>

No. I think about 6 weeks is the average (totally have no statistics for this other than my own history).