Newbie 1104 -- Game over

[gbevilchaos]

Confirmed. I'll read through and post in detail in a bit when I have a moment.

[gbevilchaos]

Questions:

1. What, if any, experience do you have at mafia?

I just started playing on another site a week or two ago.

2. What is your timezone?

GMT-5 (Eastern)

3. How often can we expect you to be posting?

Whenever I have something to say. I typically check every hour or two to see if anyone posted when I'm home.

[gbevilchaos]

Oh geez - there are way more abbreviations in the wiki than used in the other forum I play on. I'm used to only using WIFOM, L-#, and some other useful ones.

[gbevilchaos]

Vote: CC

I'm siding with you Espeonage, purely based on your avatar. Did you hear it got cancelled? ;(

[gbevilchaos]

Not attempting to be your buddy - attempting to note that Lie to Me is a beast of a show, although Lightman was getting slightly unlikable during the last season.

[gbevilchaos]

Revenge vote:

Unvote, Vote:gbevil

I think we can afford to be wrong once, no matter how scummie that might sound.

You're right, that does sound scummy. Just because you acknowledge that what you're saying sounds scummy, doesn't mean it becomes alright. My joke vote is now semi-serious.

[gbevilchaos]

@gbevil: thoughts on your L-1'ing?

and what do you think of this disturbingly fast wagon, Razgriz and Espe? Since you are the experienced ones do you think it is scum driven in any way?

I pretty much stated my thoughts above.

You're right, that does sound scummy. Just because you acknowledge that what you're saying sounds scummy, doesn't mean it becomes alright. My joke vote is now semi-serious.

Fixed quote tag. ~~NS

[gbevilchaos]

EBWOP: I fail at manually typing BB codes, but that is a quote from earlier.

[gbevilchaos]

...

and this relates to you putting gbevil at a dangerous L-1 because?

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS.

guilty conscience compadré?

Whoa, completely missed this post. But now I'm back to it.

My (noob) thought process:
9 players, 1 lynch a day, 1 kill a night, the game goes on around 4 days. 1 lynch on day 1 gives the cop 2/7 chance of investigating a mafia (assuming the first lynch was a VT). Note that when I was first reading this I thought a cop and a doctor was present. Night 1, another town is killed and the ratio becomes 5 town:2 mafia. As long as the town holds majority, the mafia is gone. The cop asks for doctor's protection and goes on investigating everyone and finds out who is innocent and who isn't and the mafia is stumped until they find the doctor.

That's the way the game was played on SC2 mafia but lulz me. T.T I fail. Hope it made sense 'cause it made sense in my head at the time.

Here's the problem with that. If there is a night kill each night and you lynch a townie by mistake each day, then these will be your people left:

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum
Day 2: 5 town, 2 scum
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum

Now, there is always the possibility that doctor/cop isn't there or doctor/cop is killed during Days 1/2. You always need to aim to lynch the scum. If you lynch a random person carelessly, you could lose the game for yourself.

I find it suspicious that you would be willing to lynch a random person, but I'll accept your reasoning. You are new to the game and don't have the theory down 100% yet.

Unvote

for now.

[gbevilchaos]

I'm not that suspicious of Twisted. He seems to be displaying appropriate logic. He only voted for me so that he could see the reactions. He found exactly what he was looking for, then took his vote off so that I wasn't lynched randomly.

You seem above the level as well. I don't think scum would post all that out to help town (although I'm a noob, what do I know).

[gbevilchaos]

I can see where you're coming from, but I'm not convinced. He had a good reason to vote for CC in my opinion.

[gbevilchaos]

I voted for CC before Twisted did. I voted for him during RVS and stated it had become a serious vote after he voted for me. He placed me at L-1, which is scummy. No one should go to L-2 or L-1 during the RVS.

As for me being influenced by others arguments, that's the nature of the game. It's one big debate on who is scum. So far, the majority of arguments have been relatively good. After taking what is said into account, my opinion may (and will, some times) change. I'm new enough to the game that I often overlook one way of thinking that a more experienced player brings to the table.

You state you're suspicious of Twisted because he placed someone on L-2, but you haven't mentioned suspicions of CC who placed someone on L-1. Can you explain this? I understand that being in the middle of a bandwagon is a scum tell, but trying for a quick lynch on Day 1 or 2 can also be a scum tell.

[gbevilchaos]

I'm aware you did vote for him before that, but I was just questioning your reason for copying someone who was voting for him during RVS instead of voting for someone else to avoid bandwagoning so early. I just find that a little odd. Espeonage and Lord of Graves were already voting for him before you decided to. You put him at L-2. And I wasn't accusing you of copying Twisted, I was just wondering if you have any other reason to vote for him than what was said by other people after you voted and decided to keep your vote as people continued to give their input.

Although I do think it's a little weird for CC to already be voting someone to L-1, I don't really suspect him. He was acting a little rash, but other than that, it's not much of a reason to lynch him. I think he's just new to this game, and wants the next day to go by. He could just be a PR waiting for the night to come so he can use his ability.

In one game I played, this happened to one person, where he said we should vote fast on day 1, and he ended up being lynched for his eagerness for the day to pass, and we lost a tracker. Just because CC is doing something hasty isn't a reason for me to vote for him because again, I don't want to lynch someone too early. Although actions like that do make him more suspicious.

And clearly I didn't explain myself well enough? I voted for Twisted because voting to put CC at L-2. I could have easily done the same for you, you want me to change my vote? Twisted voting L-2 because he is giving someone the opportunity to do the same thing he was doing by voting for CC, backfiring trying to protect you. I would recommend for CC to unvote, as he seems to be just confused and I want this day to last for longer before a final decision is made. So, if I instead voted for CC, and someone else decided to do the same, we could be lynching a newbie townie, and that is why I choose not to vote for CC or anyone with a lot of votes for the time being.

And I didn't vote for Twisted because I have the intention of him getting lynched, FYI. I mostly voted for him because I want people to remember that he has the possibilty to be scum, no matter how "reasonable" his logic appears to be. Voting isn't the only means of questioning someone's vote. He could have easily just compiled a list of suspicious things about CC and left it at that, encouraging others to ponder his reasoning.


And voting for someone after they vote for you, usually makes you look scummy, just so you know. Other people may not care your reasoning why, and may accuse you of trying to defend yourself and turn suspion on another person.

OMGUS votes do look scummy, but I never did one. I haven't changed my vote the entire game (unless it was at the very beginning when I can't remember). I just stated that my joke vote was now being considered to remain, as what he did looked awfully suspicious.

I misunderstood your question earlier about me. I voted for CC as a joke. I didn't realize he had two votes on him already, I thought he only had the one. As I said at the time, I only voted for him based on the avatar of the other person voting for him. There was nothing more to it, and I certainly would not have voted if I realized I was putting him on L-2. I probably should have checked the votes preceding mine, but I'm used to larger games (normally 10 to 20 players) in the games I've played on another site. In such games, I don't have to worry about pushing someone anywhere close to a lynch during RVS.

I still don't entirely understand why you find Twisted pushing someone to L-2 is more suspicious than CC pushing someone to L-1. You claim that CC pushing me to L-1 isn't suspicious because he was just eager, but you also claim that Twisted pushing someone to L-2 was presenting an opportunity for a quick lynch. Is it based on their different levels of experience?

[gbevilchaos]

We're already past the RVS for the most part, so a RQS wouldn't really help. We should chase the leads we already have in front of us, and keep vigilant for new leads that pop up while we're doing so.

[gbevilchaos]

we're 4 pages in

we're nowhere near ready for a lynch

we will lynch, for sure, but not now

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=17140

my last newbie game

35 pages until our first lynch. Granted, that one did set a record, but we're not quite there yet Mr.Eager beaver

QFT

Day 1 is the most difficult to find scum because you have very little to go on. We have weeks to discuss it and we shouldn't rush to lynch someone if we aren't 100% sure they're scum. Even if we are 100% sure, we might still want to draw it out to gather more info about everyone else. Town can't win a game without gathering enough info to make an educated guess on who is scum. Random guesses without even trying to find real scum from the beginning will lead to a loss every time.

[gbevilchaos]

The length of games can vary greatly. It depends on number of players, deadlines, level of activity, and plenty of other things as well. They can last anywhere from a few weeks (if there are quick lynches and few players) to several months (if there are longer days and more players).

[gbevilchaos]

I had meant to add to my last post that I would guess a newbie game typically lasts somewhere around a month to a month and a half. A more experienced player can correct me if I'm wrong.

[gbevilchaos]

vote gbevilchaos

This is just my noobiness showing but bandwagoning possibly wil keep me from dying day 1

Before I state my opinions on the post in question, I would like to hear a response from Frostbite. He hasn't posted since then.

[gbevilchaos]

I think the bandwagon after Lord of Graves claim is based on noobish gameplay. Everyone should evaluate the claim before they vote. Votes shouldn't change based only on one little post. Just look at what happened to me. The RVS votes that were meant to put pressure on me turned into L-1 due to a bandwagon when there was literally no evidence at the time of me doing anything scummy. We should evaluate everything and find clear proof of scummy behavior before we start bandwagoning. We want to lynch a scum if at all possible on Day 1, because it would put us in a great situation (7 town, 1 mafia).

[gbevilchaos]

Is Raz being replaced? As a SE, he's important to the newbie game. His absence leaves us with less experience to draw on, and a disadvantage to us if he happens to be scum. We can't figure out whether or not he's scummy if he's not here. :/

[gbevilchaos]

@Espeonage - Is lurking a frequent problem on this forum? It seems like a jerk move to sign up for a game and then decide not to show up...

And even with only 3 games played, he's more experienced than those with zero.

Also, still waiting for a response from Frostbite. I will take a lack of response within the next day or so as an indication of guilt. I'm a relatively open minded person and am happy to hear you out completely, but you need to say

something

or you'll get my vote.

[gbevilchaos]

Unvote

OK, sorry, let me explain.
As this

is

my first time playing I kind of assumed that the game would be quicker
so I reacted out of self preservation. Also, the fact that I rarely post isn't to do with scummyness
it is because I live in Ireland, which is GMT and also go to a boarding school, which really limits
my time on the computer. So I can only get on every now and then, which you may see as suspicious.
Lesson learned though.

Thanks, that more or less explains it.

Remember, it doesn't matter whether you die or not in the game (as silly as that sounds). It matters whether town or scum wins. If town wins and a townie is dead, that townie will still have "won" the game. Therefore, self preservation isn't as important as finding and lynching the scum. It's a team game.

Also, I wish I went to a boarding school. That is all.

[gbevilchaos]

Answers in bold.

Chaos, I see you're one of us who's yet to place a completely serious vote. Why haven't you?

I've yet to see someone display behavior that is scummy enough to warrant a vote. I'm not a player who tends to throw around votes unless I think the person should be lynched (unless it's used for pressure, but everyone else has done a fine job of keeping the pressure on). I almost placed a vote on Frostbite but decided against it because I wished to wait for an explanation.

You seem to be putting a lot of thought into your posts for someone with very few weeks experience. Do you adapt quickly?

I'm playing 5 consecutive games (4 of which are on another site). I've gathered a decent amount of experience across all the games, and I read through a lot of the Wiki. I don't mean to toot my own horn, but I do adapt rather quickly to new games. I've also played "The Thing" on Starcraft 1/2 before, which is a similar concept to mafia ("Townie" Marines vs. "Scummy" Alien). This gave me a basic grasp of how to detect scum, I believe.

Do you think Raz lurking into replacement telling in any way?

This isn't telling at all. If he replaced out, it's because he was absent/inactive. I'm not sure what this question means, exactly. If you're asking if I think it's scummy, then no, not really. I doubt any scum is nooby enough to lurk so badly as to replace out of the game.

If Frostbite doesn't answer in the next day, you said you'd think him more guilty. Do you stand by this statement?

He already answered, so no, I won't place my vote on him at this time. If he hadn't answered, I planned to place my vote on him to apply pressure.

Who's your top three as of this moment?

In no specific order, Frostbite, CC, and Lord of Graves have all struck me as slightly scummy. For CC and Frostbite, I've already stated what I saw off in past posts. For Lord of Graves, I have definitely seen a few off things, but I plan to keep them to myself for another day or two. If they form a pattern, I'll post my observations.

[gbevilchaos]

You seem to be putting a lot of thought into your posts for someone with very few weeks experience. Do you adapt quickly?

he's either very adaptive or has a scumpartner who gave him a mafia lesson in the QT pre-game. That's what i did last time I was scum in a newbie game. Tell the newbie everything I know about mafia pre-game in the QT beforehand s they look like a pro

since this could only be espe by PofE (due to ragriz not being present and me knowing I'm not mafia) I'm going to side with very adaptive. I have no evidence to suggest either of espe or chaos are scum at this point

I'm just adaptive. I wasn't around during the pre-game. I replaced in for someone who never confirmed.

[gbevilchaos]

He's IC, you're not. I'm guessing that was his reasoning for it.

[gbevilchaos]

How do you suspect TS and chkflip? I haven't seen any major scum tells from either of them.

[gbevilchaos]

i mean it assumes you have minor ones. I'm interested now

Not really. That was just how I like to word it. Practically everything can be a tell if you look at it hard enough, so I just refer to ones that are significant as "major" scum tells. As opposed to "minor" tells which are more WIFOM-y in nature.

[gbevilchaos]

I refuse to conform to your avatar culture.

@forest_air: Suspicious of TS yet you cancel your vote as I bring it up?

He unvoted because he had no evidence.

[gbevilchaos]

I don't know to be honest. I asked that a few posts earlier.

[gbevilchaos]

L-2 = pressure
L-1 = scummy

It is unlikely that someone who is a smart townie would put someone at L-1. Most would recognize that real scum could hammer for a quick lynch. The ones that have happened thus far are likely results of the players being new to the game.

[gbevilchaos]

Vote Lord of Graves

.

He tried to start a bandwagon on Frost and then stopped posting. He hasn't posted in several days and wasn't posting frequently before that.

Vote: Frostbite

So he hasn't been around and I don't even think he confirmed then he swoops in and puts a guy at L-1. Lurking plus trying to get a quick lynch on the fifth page. Smells like scum.

But my main reason is because he said he wanted to stay alive. Newbie reasoingn? Maybe. But only scum should ever try to appease town.

His reasoning was rather weak. He blamed Frostbite for lurking when he himself has lurked. He also tried to say that only scum should try to explain themselves to town. This isn't true - everyone should explain their votes. If this is what he believes, however, he wouldn't be explaining his vote if he was town. He attempted to explain his vote in his post, so I have to assume that he's acting how he thinks the scum should.

[gbevilchaos]

so what info were you hoping for?

I was wondering if anyone would follow my vote. I also did that to see who else other than yourself would question my voting you. With so few people in this game, it was an attempt to get people to question my motives and for me to hopefully learn something about other players.

Plus I was wondering what CC would say. A few times when I changed my vote, he seems to imply that my reasoning for those vote changes was because of something he said. I find that scummy to note such things. There are other players in the game aside from him who I can decide to take their opinions from to decide on my vote.

Although he has been making a lot of posts, many of them were fluff, and his voting habits are making me suspicious.

Vote: CaptainCuddles

FoS CC

I had noticed the fluff as well. I'm not going to change my vote to him yet, as I want to see where the inquiry about Lord of Graves goes, but I'm definitely going to keep a close eye on CC.

[gbevilchaos]

yeah, I'm still swish with Lord of graves

Same. My top 2 scum candidates are Graves and CC at the moment, but Graves isn't getting any attention.

Can everyone post their opinions on Graves? We need to start discussing him. CC has been discussed already, and nothing new has really popped up. Let's wait for him to do something else wrong before we all default back to the guy who was the easiest target during his first few days of play.

[gbevilchaos]

I see people voting as TS was asking people why they were being so conservative with their votes. Early on I screwed up because of some misunderstandings about how the games were played on MS.

@forest_air: Could you explain what you find suspicious about my voting habits? My current vote on Frost, I think, is justifiable. Others were random (TS) or OMGUS votes (which brought gb to L-1 >.> but then I really thought the entire game was going to end by June 3 and I didn't understand why people were being so slow).

The fluff posts was a result of, again, not understanding what the hell I am doing or the consequences of such posts. VI

I'm scum. Oh wait, I didn't mean that. I'm just new. Forget what I said.

See how that defense doesn't work? Scumtells are scumtells, regardless of whether you're new or not. After you learn the nature of the game, experience doesn't matter as to how your posting should be interpretted. If you display a tell, we won't just dismiss it because you're new and didn't mean to appear scummy. You've appeared scummy and you have to deal with that.

[gbevilchaos]

@Mod: Is LoG being replaced? He's been inactive for half way to forever and we kind of need a response to the accusations against him to figure out how to vote.

[gbevilchaos]

I'm saying that the question was answered not two posts above the one I quoted. Answering the question itself isn't scummy, no, but the fact that you best case scenario "didn't see" the answer means that, at best, you were skimming the hell out of the thread at that point. Meaning you're scum just trying to blend in with that post. Doesn't sit well, especially since the timing wasn't as close as you're insinuating here.

Check the time stamps.

CC asked a question at 6:55pm
TS posted an answer to the question at 6:58pm
TS posted again to correct the link from the first response at 6:58pm
TS posted to say "my name is on that page" at 6:59pm
I posted my response at 7:00pm

So your argument is that I saw the question that TS had already answered, realized (as scum) that this would be a brilliant opportunity to make myself seem like town, went off to find the URL of the glossary (instead of just copying the link from TS's message since his first link was wrong), created a mail message, copied the two definitions from the glossary into the mail message, copied the URL for the glossary into the mail message, and sent the message. All of this in two minutes???

You really think this is a more likely scenario than both of us seeing the question at the same time and answering it at the same time?

Yes, I saw after I posted my answer that TS had already responded also. But you can't go back and edit or delete posts, so there it sits.

So again - why is my "skimming the hell out of the thread" and answering a question more suspicious than TS skimming the hell out of the thread (two minutes sooner even) and answering the same question?

Your argument that you didn't skim is correct. It's unlikely that you saw TS's response. You were probably busy finding the link while he was posting.

At the same time, TS didn't skim. He answered the question after it was asked. He did the exact same thing as you. Don't try to deflect blame on a random person while trying to claim your own innocence. That looks scummy.

[gbevilchaos]

I'm new so I could be wrong, but I thought scum skimming was looking over a thread quickly and not reading through the entire thing prior to posting. This would be scummy because only scum wouldn't need to read carefully to look for tells.

[gbevilchaos]

welcome to the club Otolia

This.

So, what do you have to say for Lord of Graves' former actions? I'll let you read through the thread instead of summarizing the case against him. I posted it on the last page, if I remember right.

Also, are you a newbie or just replacing into the game to help fill a spot?

[gbevilchaos]

We don't assume V/LA. If he doesn't respond soon, we can assume that he is being inactive on purpose.

@Mod - Please prod him. It's been at least the 48 needed for a request, but I don't think it's quite at 72 yet.

Hopefully he will become active in order to shed some light on the accusations against him. It seems like they kind of died out because he didn't respond at all.

[gbevilchaos]

He's been active enough, but most of his posts so far were just explaining terminology and then his posts regarding scum skimming. He hasn't really posted enough for me to make a vote on him, but I'm starting to think of him as more suspicious because of this.

He does seem to be trying to lay low, though, trying keep unoticed?

That sums up my feelings on him. He hasn't done anything specifically scummy. It's more what he hasn't done. He hasn't made any votes with serious claims. He hasn't contributed to our discussions about different players. He's only really defended himself or stayed silent.

[gbevilchaos]

Unvote

. I'm going to wait to hear what Otolia has to say before deciding whether to keep my vote on him or not.

[gbevilchaos]

I don't really have a read on espe. He hasn't posted with content (I excluded the posts where he went V/LA and said he was playing poker) since Wed May 18, 2011 12:45 am. I'd like to here his thoughts on what's happened over the weekend and over the past day. Right now, he seems to be lurking a tiny bit.

Before anyone bitches at me, I know he was away for the weekend. He remained silent the two days before he went away on the 20th and also the past two days since he was back on the 22nd.

FoS Espe

until he posts his thoughts. It does seem like he's hanging around in the background.

[gbevilchaos]

There was more interest in your reaction to being called out at all tbh. Town motivated response imo.

If you're getting a town-tell from me, why are you so quick to jump on the bandwagon just because TwistedSpoon asked you to?

Properly executing a minor town-tell is not comparative to your alignment. Just because I like the way you answer one thing doesn't mean I like other things you've done. Spoon's initial vote seems to be with little to no reasoning, why not question that? Because you're deflecting scum.

Vote chkflip

You claim he's deflecting scum, but the sentence before you deflect onto TS. That makes you deflecting scum, especially in light of the fact that you refuse to admit to having little evidence. Your reasoning against noragar was extremely weak. His response to the pressure seems townish to me. Your continued heavy pressure and lack of any evidence whatsoever disturbs me.

Also, you stated that Spoon's initial vote seemed to be for little or no reason. Why did you bandwagon on it when asked if you feel it has "little to no reasoning?"

[gbevilchaos]

he copied my vote with very little reason to back it up.

I had FoS'd CC four days before your vote (see post #76) and he was the only one I ever stated any strong suspicion about, so I don't see how you can say I copied your vote. As far as piling on votes with very little reason to back it up, how about what's going on with me. The reasons I've seen for the votes against me are:

1. Answering an easy question to try to appear more town
2. Scum skimming because I skimmed over a post that hadn't been made yet when I answered that question.
3. Trying to blend in and not appear scummy. Isn't it good strategy to try to not appear scummy whether you're scum or town?
4. Not posting very much even though I've posted more than half the other people in the game.
5. Copying a vote without reason, even though I stated my reasons before the vote I "copied" was made.

I guess if I'm going out, I may as well have my vote on the person who tried hardest to orchestrate it.

Unvote
Vote: Chkflip

My initial read on the spot when there was nothing else to go on was that of Vanilla townie since I thought that when the original person disappeared immediately, I though it was more likely that someone would just walk away after getting dealt a VT role than either a scum or a power role. But since then, Chkflip's actions make no sense to me. First he tries to fabricate a very weak case against me. Then after that fails, he admits that my responses seem town, then immediately votes for me because someone asked him to. I tried to get more information about his justifications, but it looks like I may not have time to do that.

At this point, I believe you should claim your role. You're under a lot of pressure, and I think that this OMGUS vote that you just pulled (which is probably the scummiest thing you've done so far) will probably result in a lynch. I think you're town, but the majority don't and one vote will push you over the edge. Time to role claim.

[gbevilchaos]

@Otolia: See above post. TS basically summed it up.

[gbevilchaos]

@Forest - If they claim cop or doctor, they're scum. That's what I was looking for.

[gbevilchaos]

He would claim vanilla townie because he knows scum would kill a power role. Only scum claim power roles because they aren't afraid of being NK'd and noob town are hesitant to lynch a claimed power role.

[gbevilchaos]

Yeah. It gets WIFOMy, but it's a general rule that I go by. Anyone with a grasp of basic game theory knows that cops and doctors should stay hidden.

This of course doesn't mean that noragar couldn't be scum. He just isn't dumb scum if he is. I was fishing for a tell, and didn't get one.

[gbevilchaos]

This of course doesn't mean that noragar couldn't be scum. He just isn't dumb scum if he is. I was fishing for a tell, and didn't get one.

How do you know all of this?

seriously this is advancedish stuff. I thought this was your first game?

I have repeatedly said that I'm concurrently playing in a few games on other sites. In total, I'm playing 6 games right now (originally 4, but I was asked to replace into 2 others). I've played multiple role playing games in the past that aren't the same as Mafia, but involve some of the same elements. Finally, I read up on basic game theory in the Wiki and possess the common sense to take the basic game theory and develop my own ideas about the game.

If I get NK'd, look at TS. He seems surprised by the level of thought I've put behind my actions, so if he's scum, he may try to NK me to prevent me from figuring him out. He's been vague-ish in several of his posts when he goes to vote for someone (for an IC, anyway), so I consider him a scum candidate.

I don't consider him the most likely player for scum, but I want to make sure that my thoughts on that are out there in case I don't survive the night.

[gbevilchaos]

Wow, I'm an idiot. I missed this page of posts when I was reading before.

Here are my reads, although I have been giving them frequently throughout the thread.

Espe and chkflip - Difficult because they've been inactiveish, but probably town
Otolia - probably scum. Otolia is more of a town read than Lord of Graves, but it sounds like he's just covering up for LoG's mistakes
TS - probably town
CC - seems like noob town to me
Frost - seems like noob town as well
Noragar - might be scum, but I'm unsure at the moment - definitely not a target for Day 1 lynch, we need more info on him

Unvote Vote Otolia

The more I see from you, the more it seems you're covering up the mistakes of LoG. You haven't helped much new discussion. This recent post bothers me.

Now we have to decide. Do we lynch a VT because we don't want to force more claims or do we target another player ?

How do you know for sure that noragar is a VT? Town would have some conditional clause in there. You seem too sure. You're a much better target than noragar ever was. I still don't understand the bandwagon on him.

[gbevilchaos]

TS, you listed Otolia twice. Is he twice as scummy as everyone else? lmao

Eagerly awaiting your post Otolia.

[gbevilchaos]

His 282 doesn't seem scum motivated, brings up interesting points on Spoon; meanwhile, Espe is 12 hours lurked, has little to no actual content, and has fluffed a good bit.

I've played with Espe - it doesn't mean I can read him any better or worse than anyone else, but he lurked as scum in that one, too.

It's possible that Otolia is self-preservation motivated instead of town motivated. I'm not saying he's the best lynch target at the moment (I don't think anyone really is at the moment), but we should consider the possibility. He's played other games in the past, which means he probably knows how to mislead people.

I still want a good post from Espe...I voted for him a while back and requested it. He's yet to post content since his V/LA, and his lurking is starting to piss me off. I don't necessarily think he's scum, but he needs to contribute. He should spend the time he spends typing up "I'll post later" posts, and devote them to posting content and discussion. Day 1 is definitely the hardest to get a scum lynch on, but with some good discussion, it's possible.

For the moment:

Unvote

I need to reread CC's posts. I've been having trouble getting a good read off him.

Also, what is a null read? Neutral?

[gbevilchaos]

Sorry for my lack of comment for the past day or so. My internet has been out. It's looking better now, though.

Otolia, you have back tracked so many times that I consider you to be scum (probably a 95% chance). A townie wouldn't need to try deflecting onto TS, chkflip, and Espe, all within a page or two. A townie would state his reads and accept the lynch.

Vote Otolia

Also,

FoS Chkflip

. He's jumped on several early bandwagons without posting reasoning, and he hasn't started really pushing against Otolia until it was rather obvious that he was going to be lynched. I have details written down, but I'm not going to share them until tomorrow. I don't want to make us go on a wild tangent when we have an easy scum target right in front of us in Otolia.

Having said that, if I die during Night 1, chkflip is almost definitely scum trying to stop me from posting my case.

[gbevilchaos]

Having said that, if I die during Night 1, chkflip is almost definitely scum trying to stop me from posting my case.

scum could just kill you now you've said that to incriminate flippy

Hmmm.. hadn't considered that. Now that it's out in the open, it would become so WIFOMy that my death wouldn't allow you to draw many conclusions. That sucks.

[gbevilchaos]

That was more or less what I had noragar. That and his odd pattern of voting early for Otolia (i.e. looking like he isn't bandwagoning), but waiting until there was a strong case against Otolia to start talking about Otolia's actual scumtells.

[gbevilchaos]

CC won't be back til Monday, so we'll have to wait to hear his take on what's been going on.

@Noragar: TS seems to be a town read to me. If Otolia turns up as scum, then we can pretty much rule out TS as a possibility. He wouldn't actively try to start a bandwagon on his scum partner on Day 1. It just wouldn't make sense. I think that flip could possibly be trying to take advantage of TS's IC status. I doubt most noobs would question the IC's judgement on scum tells (we're encouraged to learn from them), so it's possible that noobs also wouldn't question his associates. And flip has clearly been trying to associate himself with TS.

This is a conversation best suited to be held after we lynch Otolia, though. If he flips scum, we can pretty much assume TS is town and continue the discussion about the motivation behind flip's heavy association with TS. If he flips town, then we should start pressuring TS himself.

[gbevilchaos]

Woah, so many pages to catch up on >W>

Okay, from what I can tell, I think TS and Otolia are both town. Although I think some of Otolia's points are questionable, on the other hand, some of the things that TS seem odd. A thought occured that they could be making an act to make the town think that one of them is scum and one is not, to protect the one who gets lynched. Think about it, there are quite a few people who are away(CC, Espe, Frostbite) so it would be hard to acquire enough votes to lynch someone unless gbevil or myself decided to make a vote.

And TS's willingness to give himself up for D2 is really bothering me. Rather eerie thing to say. Striked me as irrationable, and since this is only day 1, and nobody has died yet. If the other people had made an analysis like Otolia, I believe TS would have reacted in a similar way. Picking out points of interest to ridicule and using that as evidence to vote for Otolia. Rather suspicious that a TS would make an OMGUS vote. You know, since not a lot of very large posts have been made with a lot of potential for nitpicking.

As for Otolia, he seems more town to me than TS, but I could be wrong. He has been posting more after making his argument, and now that he has made a decision I will have more of a means to get a better read of him.

Of course, chkflip also strikes me as suspicious, because he seems to keep following TS without much time passing by. I would really like to know his motivation for that, but I don't think it has to do with TS being an IC. Strange as that sounds, as chkflip is willing to vote for a seemingly random person each time as he just agrees with little meat to back up his vote. I'm considering voting for him as of this point in the game.

Other than that, I don't really have anything to contribute.

Unvote vote Forest

Can you address the arguments against Otolia? There is some pretty good evidence that he is scum.

[gbevilchaos]

^It's generally not good to trust vibes, but I just have a feeling that neither of TS or Otolia are scum. As I said, I could be wrong, but I've been in a game somewhere else where there was this three-way group of people FOSing and voting for each other. They kept on picking at the little things in each others' posts and caused a lot of bandwagoning and opportunities for scums to manipulate the town. In this particular game, they all ended up getting NKed/lynched and each one was a completely innocent vanilla townie. I think the same thing may be happening here.

And okay, I looked back and I take back what I said about Otolia. He seems more on the scum side than TS now, because some of TS's in the middle pages seemed pro-town and I'm just as unsure as almost everyone here who is scum and who is not. And after re-reading, some of the things that Otolia said seem less townish to me.

Again, I had a lot of pages to read. I think I skipped a post or two by accident. But, I still think it's just a TT thing happening here.

And note how I didn't vote for anyone. I'm still suspicious of chkflip, because he was just following TS around. Honestly, if I wanted side with Otolia's, I would have actually voted for chkflip. Even though I had suspicions of TS earlier on in the game, I chose not to vote for him. Even though I do partially agree with some of the things Otolia said, I also find some things about what TS to be true.

And thus, I am not convinced enough to vote for anyone just yet. We still have quite a few IRL days left in this game, so I don't want to bandwagon as it'll 1)cause people to accuse me of voting for a townie(if the one lynched

is

a townie or 2)we still have to wait for Espeonage.

I am also anticipating that Frostbite's replacement will arrive before the day ends.

My experience is the people who lurk or make very short posts(not neccessarily fluff) are more likely to be scum. I could be saying the same thing about CC but since he hasn't posted for a while, and it will be even longer before he comes back. If TS and Otolia are posting so much, I'd rather have them be alive to see who will be analyzing tomorrow's deaths than some people who continuely bandwagon or post with insufficient evidence. If a person posts enough, basically anything they say can be a scumtell, and whatever an IC says can be convincing to everyone since he has played for a long time and this is a newbie game...full of newbies(including myself ._.)

Just out of curiousity, are you voting for me out of pressure, or because you seriously suspect me?

That's what I was looking for. Before Day 1 ended, I needed a better read on you. I'm not sure if anyone realized it, but my vote on you was the first time any vote has been placed on you in the entire game. Now everyone can see how you respond under random pressure, at least to some degree.

Your response basically confirms in my mind that you're town, which is supported by how you've acted the entire game. My reads are now as follows:

Town: TS, Forest
Leaning Town: Noragar, Frost
Null: CC
Leaning Scum: Espe, Flip (if I was forced to construct a top 2, he would be in it)
Scum: Otolia

Unvote vote Otolia

I'm placing my vote back on Otolia. Now that I have a decent read on everyone (as well as I can hope to get on Day 1 anyway), I'm content to go for the lynch whenever someone is willing to hammer.

[gbevilchaos]

Hopefully Espe, CC, and Frost's replacement will all be here, caught up, and ready to go after the night.

[gbevilchaos]

Fail TS. Fail.

This has been a successful Day 1 (unless Otolia is screwing with us, lol). If possible I would love a post of reads from every player in the game before night falls so I can re-read the game and revise my own reads before Day 2. If you can't get them ready by the time night falls, have them ready Day 2. Thanks everybody.

[gbevilchaos]

No kill - well that's interesting. That'll give us an extra day to find some scum. =)

Unfortunately, it also means we have no more information to go on today then we did yesterday. We're just going to have to keep hunting the same leads unless something new pops up.

Welcome Haylen!

Back to the leads from Day 1:

Flip - Why are you so fast to follow TS? You hopped on bandwagons with him multiple times. One of those times, he literally asked you to and you obeyed without any real explanation. Do you just have that strong of a town read on TS so as to follow him?
Espe - Catch up post please.

As far as I'm concerned, TS is confirmed town based on yesterday's lynch.

Thoughts everyone?

[gbevilchaos]

Unless TS pushed for his scummate to be lynched on Day 1 despite the experience he has (he is IC after all), then he is town. I don't know of any experienced player who would start a bandwagon on their scummate on Day 1. That would be suicidal, basically.

[gbevilchaos]

flip's ISO

he's on otolia like a yo-yo

I mean

Otolia's play is a little scummy overall, though. I can link to a recently ended town win with him being the hammer in lylo.

These sentences seem contradictory; what I'm saying is that he has his ups and his downs. It'd be best to shake him first, for sure.

what happened to this reason for otolia town?

Otolia, in a hypothetical world where you're scum... who would be your partner?

and this question looks like fair bussing material. I can't see what else it could be

I have no idea what alignment flippy is. He's certainly helpful though in the otolia wagon.

this is your call town

Hmm. That could very easily be bussing. The answer to that question would be so WIFOM that it would be of literally no use. Asking the question in the first place seems suspicious.

I'd like to hear Flip's reasoning behind it before I say anything. Was it just a joke?

[gbevilchaos]

This is my new tactic, btw. I'm walling scum out into the open and making them surrender this way.

You're doing this for everyone in all your games? Now that's commitment.

CC's case is a tad WIFOM to me. It could be noobscum or noobtown in my opinion. I do want to note that, while his activity was very high in the first few days, it has drifted off a little towards the end of the day. This could be a scum response to the pressure he received at the beginning of Day 1. He may figure that if he doesn't talk, he can't slip up again. I still would like to see more from him before I would be willing to vote his way.

FoS CC

though.

Noragar reads more like noobtown than anything to me. Emotional seems noobtownish to me. He used more logic towards the end of Day 1 and in his response to Hayl's post against him, so I would consider it's a noob town learning how to play them game (or a smart noob scum learning, but I think that would have taken longer).

I'm reading Forest's ISO now before I respond to his case. It seems apparent that I overlooked several things from him, probably because I mistook his long and frequent posts for active scumhunting. I want to see how much helped further a case and how much was fluff.

[gbevilchaos]

My comments in red. I deleted the quotes that Haylen included where he indicated a town read, as they don't really require any response.

I pretty much stated my thoughts above.

No you didn't. You just said about siding with Espeon over an avatar lol.

Scum Motivation

I would have expected scum to choose a side on the bandwagons.

Town Motivation

Pretty obviously a newbie who doesn't quite get that he should be giving his opinion on the bandwagons rather than choosing sides :p

I thought he asked for my response on CC's putting me at L-1, which I had supplied above. I'm probably understanding the question wrong, because I believe I answered it when I said that CC's stating he was acting scummy doesn't mean he wasn't scummy.

Votes shouldn't change based only on one little post.

As paranoid as I am, I have to disagree with this based on principle. A refusal to change ones vote from the events in one post could be considered scum motivated. I have met scum who keep their vote on the same person all day and nobody said anything about it because they have stated their opinions, despite scummier things happening that they should have changed their vote to if they had been town. <-- Possible scum motivation by Gbe.

The point I was trying to convey was that we should slow down and focus on getting lots of information out of the day instead of going for a quick lynch. My post was worded just awfully.

For Lord of Graves, I have definitely seen a few off things, but I plan to keep them to myself for another day or two.

Keeping things from the town.

Town Motivation

There is none.

Scum motivation

It hides thought processes and allows scum to coast by and make up reasons as they go along if they refuse to state their reasoning straight out. What I mean is, if given adequate time, someone who states somebody is suspicious with no basis can quickly draw on something from the game and fake it. It also prevents the game from moving forward which is what scum desire to do.

His suspicion in Post 30 seems legit.

I was trying to see a strong pattern develop showing LoG was scummy instead of trying to make a weak case out of what was already there and then allowing him to change his behavior to appear more townish. I'd rather wait a day or two (real life, not in game) for the strong case than pursue one that I know won't result in a lynch. I gave my opinions in Post 30 only two real life days later when I felt I had enough info, so I made sure it was in there well before any deadline and could be used to help us make a good decision on our lynch.

In my opinion, it's the same as TS saying that someone appears scummy in a list of his reads but not posting a long and detailed case with quotes on him until later.

He would claim vanilla townie because he knows scum would kill a power role. Only scum claim power roles because they aren't afraid of being NK'd and noob town are hesitant to lynch a claimed power role.

I repeat, never lie about your role. It leads the town into a false path of information and down the wrong road.

While I have most of the game theory down, I don't understand this at all. If you're a PR, why would you admit to it? It doesn't make sense. Your lie will never be figured out because an investigation still turns you up innocent, and it keeps you safe in the long run (and the town safe because you can keep investigating/jailkeep-ing/healing). Can TS explain this a bit more? Isn't it appropriate to lie about your role if it helps the town reach their wincon in the long run?

Having said that, if I die during Night 1, chkflip is almost definitely scum trying to stop me from posting my case.

NEVER say things like this. Horrible things can happen the next day if people take notice of it. HORRIBLE THINGS.

Yeah, that was my noobiness showing. I didn't think through how that would get WIFOMy as all hell.

[gbevilchaos]

I think forest is town. There's no real posts I can post up to "prove" this. It's based on a holistic examination of all of his posts. He seems to have a hard time moving from one target to another. He isn't tunneling (he moves from TS to CC to Otolia over the course of Day 1), but it takes a lot to convince him to move from each. Even after changing his vote, he oftened stated he was still suspicious of the first person. This seems like a town read because he's hanging onto his suspicions instead of going with a popular option, like I would expect scum to do. Also, if he was scum, he hammered his partner on Day 1 when there was no one else likely to do it (the rest were inactiveish). There is little reason to hammer a scumpartner on Day 1 unless their lynch is inevitable, and I don't think it really was.

[gbevilchaos]

I guess that's true, but that cop would be an idiot for admitting to lieing.

And I was directing it at TS just because he's our IC, not because I expected you to be wrong. I just thought the full explanation ought to come from him, if I was specifically asking for it.

[gbevilchaos]

If I was the cop: The cop wouldn't reveal his investigation results, he would just hope for the best. Assuming the cop understand the likely consequence of revealing his lie, he would have to use the scum's ISO to develop a good case against him. Revealing the lie would be far too risky. If it was a noob cop that lied, then they would lose, plain and simple.

I'm starting to see how the risks would outweigh the benefits of lieing for a PR.

[gbevilchaos]

@TS: Not picking up the chairs next time.

I'm going to give updated reads on everybody once Hayl finishes with her reads on everybody. They are very thorough, and have given me some things to think about that I haven't considered before.

I got a town read from Frostbite for the most part when he was here, and I seriously doubt that Hayl would be making cases that are this detailed if she was scum. Then again, she is very experienced, so she could just be tricking us, who knows. I would say I have a moderate to strong town read from her though.

[gbevilchaos]

EBWOP: For the meantime until I give my updated reads, I would say Otolia's scummate is probably Espe, CC, or flip.

[gbevilchaos]

@Anyone, do you think there's a possibility of Hayscum?

The only winning move is not to play.

what do you mean by this?

It's a quote from the movie WarGames. A supercomputer is ready to launch nuclear missiles to destroy the world, but eventually is convinced to not do so after realizing the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction when a simulation of nuclear war scenarios is run.

/nerd

What he means is that there is no way for him to correctly answer the question "Are you scum?" because both a townie and scum would say "No." Since there are no specific questions regarding his actions directed at him, he didn't bother to give a response of why he isn't scum.

[gbevilchaos]

Did I say that was a mistake? Clearly it couldn't have been since I responded to Otolia throughout. Nice deflection, though, I really appreciate the effort put forth in this post. It really proves that you're really trying to grasp at your best efforts to AtE here. You an English major, by chance?

Actually, a math major.

I don't think you ever said that it was a mistake. It's quite possible that it's not a mistake for you, but it would have been a mistake for me which is what I was saying. Some people interpreted the question to be a possible scum indicator. One of my strategies during Day 1 was to not do anything that would cause myself to appear scummy because it could possibly lead to my being incorrectly lynched by the town. Since asking a question that led others to view me as scummy would have gone against my strategy, I would have viewed it as a mistake.

What does AtE mean? Anti-town Eliminate? Yes, I'm making my best efforts to eliminate those that are anti-town.

The way this post is phrased is just downright odd. Townies worry about finding scum. They don't worry about making mistakes, because at the end of the game, whether they're lynched or not doesn't matter. What matters is whether or not the scum were found.

If your strategies involve making sure you don't seem scummy, then you're most likely scum. Only scum have to worry about blending in.

Asking questions, as long as they will help find scum, is never a mistake. Holding back cases and questions you have about other players is definitely something scum would do.

Vote noragar

I didn't get a scummy read from you on Day 1, but that post was a big "mistake" as you put it.

[gbevilchaos]

Yes, townies worry about finding scum. But how is it productive to look for scum in such a way that you appear to be scummier than the true scum are looking. What benefit is it to mislead the rest of the town into thinking you might be scum?

If you're scum hunting and trying to get a town win, then you don't have to worry about appearing like scum at all.

Can some other people give thoughts on this? I find it completely crazy that noragar literally said that he's playing with the goal of not making mistakes that would make him appear scummy. Isn't that the definition of how scum should try to play?

[gbevilchaos]

@Mod: CC prod?[/b]

CaptainCuddles has been prodded.

Already done a few pages back.

[gbevilchaos]

I'm town, and if anyone calls me scum, they should be modkilled.

You're scum. Also, A2E. Didn't you think that my walls might contain information you've missed? Also...I don't plan on posting walls all game, it's just info I've missed due to replacing in that I've decided I'm going to comment on.

I'm gonna do more walls today! I finally got my new glasses and reading doesn't hurt. <_<

@ TS - I'm trying really hard to take a back seat, because I know Nobody Special has to write a review on you at the end of the game to send to Vel.

This. Hayl spent what must be hours making those wall posts in order to analyze players' posts. Why would you need read the other players' opinions on the game? Flip played scummy (wagoning with TS over and over), and I'm not willing to dismiss that idea just because you say you're town.

Can you explain in detail your analysis on noragar? A one sentence post saying "Oh yeah, he's town" doesn't really help us out. Can you quote some town-motivated posts if you're sure he's town and explain?

@Twisted: Sorry, not wagoning on Espe. I'm more interested in Flip/Muffin than Espe at the moment.

[gbevilchaos]

I don't like muffin's attitude

Ditto, not to be a jerk or anything. He's either the boldest scum of all time (which he could probably pull off), or he's town. I would think that scum would be less blatant about skimming/laziness/willingness to lynch town if it supports points 1+2/etc

@TS: I haven't considered your posting asking for analysis to be a scumtell, but these two posts within six minutes of each other strikes me as an antsy scum:

Haylen, do you share Espe's view that I'm scummy because I'm asking for your analysis of me?

you seem to be suspicous of all the generally accepted town reads. Haylen and myself

I'll take that as too bold/bizarre for scum

VOTE: Noragar

Then there's always the issue of you taking pressure off Espe as soon as he appears to pressure you back a little bit. Why change your vote back to someone that you yourself said was a "wild card."

noragar is a wildcard. Otolia was rather pro-noragar but Haylen is trusting him for now

You seem to be going after those who aren't here to defend themselves. You went after Espe for a while when he was absent, and backed off when he returned. Now you're going after noragar, who hasn't posted since Tue Jun 07, 2011 9:41 pm, over a day ago. His posts are the most inconsistent besides Espe, whose activity is higher now.

Also, while reading your ISO, I noticed there were a few posts that could be considered buddy attempts.

who would you say are the top towns? Gbevil?

I'm siggy'ing that actually Gbevil

This trend only started recently, though. There was no such attempts during Day 1.

I've got my eye on you.

FoS TS

[gbevilchaos]

Well, I'm thinking Hayl is scum. I'm going to vote for her after checking the ISO one more time, but that's my conclusion. You can come up with your own ideas of how I got there.

That doesn't exactly work, now does it Espe?

Unvote vote Espe

It's staying until I see some content. I'd like to now why you have your vote on f_a.

I do understand why you considered Muffin's Hayl vote to be scummy. He questioned what would happen if Hayl flipped town. That's a bit of a scumtell because a townie would be voting on someone that they're pretty sure is scum. I can see the reasoning, but I don't really agree with it. Taken in context with everything else Muffin has done, I doubt an experienced player would play like that if he was scum.

[gbevilchaos]

I'm not really experienced.

And I would play like that as scum, if I felt it would help me win.

Anyway, try not to hammer before I wake up. I feel like writing a massive wall, and then chastising everyone for not reading it. But it's 5am and I can barely see straight.

You aren't as experienced as Hayl, but you've been around a few months. You know how to play the game.

[gbevilchaos]

you were all very well when i showed frosty was 99% town
in post #261

what's changed now?

It was an extreme example of Muffin's thought process. I thought it was obvious it wasn't serious.

To confirm, Hayl is a town read.

[gbevilchaos]

actually, I want his full reads before I cast judgement (same for forest and choas)

Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: noragar, forest_air, zMuffin
Null: CC
Scum: Espe (mainly due to his crazy thought process that he refuses to show in detail as well as his chronic absence)

[gbevilchaos]

chaos and others may choose to post less often to avoid getting noticed.

lolwut? I have the second highest post count!

[gbevilchaos]

chaos and others may choose to post less often to avoid getting noticed.

lolwut? I have the second highest post count!

When I did I say that? And I'm not accusing you of lurking or anything, so it isn't that big a deal

Iso Post #47. It took me by suprise.

[gbevilchaos]

Sorry about my lessened activity lately - I've been really busy with school. Now that that's mostly over (except night classes and a final or two), I'll be able to put more time into this game again.

Espe, I still want to see a case from you against forest, since you still have your vote on her. My vote stays on you until I see such a thing.

[gbevilchaos]

What you pointed out is an off-topic prod dodge. tbf going off-topic in a post is an example of fluff. The difference was I'm not using it to make my posts longer.

No, it was used by you to prevent ever having to post any content.

As you said yourself, creating posts where everything is important to town is a towntell. In all of Day 1, when did you post anything important? It was all "prod dodges," as you referred to them. Using simple logic, doing the opposite of a towntell is a scumtell - it means you aren't interested in helping town.

[gbevilchaos]

Nothing to add at this point. Still voting for Espeonage.

That's some epic lurking. You mean to tell me you don't have anything to say about any post that's been created in the past 3 days since your last post?

Can you give us some reads at least?

[gbevilchaos]

Noragar seemed to get super defensive when he was under fire in Day 1. He started lurking in Day 2 as soon as he was more or less in the clear. I can see how that is scummy behavior (coast until you're under fire and then defend yourself to prevent a lynch).

I want a list of reads from noragar and his own analysis of Espe before I think about moving my vote around.

[gbevilchaos]

Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: noragar, forest_air, zMuffin
Null: CC
Scum: Espe (mainly due to his crazy thought process that he refuses to show in detail as well as his chronic absence)

Ditto for me, except replace noragar with gbevilchaos and drop forest_air to a category somewhere between Null and Scum.

I posted my reads in the post before that one, and nothing has changed since then, so I didn't see the need to repeat them.

The back and forth between Espe, Muffin, and gbevil have done nothing but solidify my opinion that espe is the other scum.

And my mistake as well - I forgot you posted that since you only modified my reads instead of writing out the names like most people have done.

My modified reads, by the way, based on noragar's latest activities

Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: zMuffin, forest_air
Null: CC (can't remember the replacement's name)
Leaning Scum: Espe, noragar

I can explain any in detail with quotes, etc. if anyone wants me to. Just let me know if you're unsure how I reached the conclusions I have with my reads.

[gbevilchaos]

Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: noragar, forest_air, zMuffin
Null: CC
Scum: Espe (mainly due to his crazy thought process that he refuses to show in detail as well as his chronic absence)

Ditto for me, except replace noragar with gbevilchaos and drop forest_air to a category somewhere between Null and Scum.

I posted my reads in the post before that one, and nothing has changed since then, so I didn't see the need to repeat them.

The back and forth between Espe, Muffin, and gbevil have done nothing but solidify my opinion that espe is the other scum.

I still want your

detailed

opinions on Espe, by the way. What makes you think he's scummy?

[gbevilchaos]

Muffin's not scum.

And you know this...how? That's a much more "sure" statement then is possible based on what he's posted. Muffin is a townish read for me as well, but he isn't confirmed town or anything, like your statement seems to suggest.

[gbevilchaos]

Muffin's not scum.

And you know this...how? That's a much more "sure" statement then is possible based on what he's posted. Muffin is a townish read for me as well, but he isn't confirmed town or anything, like your statement seems to suggest.

I just completed an analysis of Muffin's ISO, which I will post only after Forest explains her read on Muffin. I want to make sure she has good reasons before I list out my own reasons that Muffin is town.

[gbevilchaos]

We need to somehow apply that story to this situation, and quickly lynch the other person tomorrow.

Why would we ever want a quick lynch? Discussion is important.

I'm okay with an Espe lynch, but based on recent events (read: lurking), I'm leaning more towards noragar as scum.

Unvote vote noragar

[gbevilchaos]

Updated Reads:

Muffin - confirmed town as per Forest's posts. There were a few times where she specifically said "Muffin is town" with no proof. That sure makes a lot more sense now.
Morthas - null read, need to hear more from him.
Hayl - town read
TS - town read
noragar - leaning scum; the scummiest person here now

I'm surprised Espe flipped scum, but considering that it was kind of a split decision at the end between Espe/noragar, I guess it was a 50:50 shot there. Hayl and TS's willingness to vote for Espe despite their main cases being on other players (TS --> noragar, Hayl --> CC) bugs me a bit, but it could easily be town looking for the momentum boost that comes with a lynch and the information gained from it.

[gbevilchaos]

I'm surprised Espe flipped scum

Espe flipped town
espe did not flip scum

Sorry, I was typing that post in between matches of Starcraft. As evidenced by the rest of my post, I know that Espe flipped town.

After rereading F_A's iso, this post stands out as a possible "breadcrumb" of her being a cop.

Muffin's not scum.

That isn't taken out of context. It's the entire post. I questioned such a sure statement and demanded evidence when she made it, but eventually dismissed it as just a gut read or a holistic read of Muffin. It's possible that experienced scum (TS or Hayl) could have taken the post as meaning she actually knew 100% that Muffin was scum. It's also very possible that the scum rolecop detected her Night 1, but that is a stretch in my opinion. I would think that a noobscum would target the IC or SE for rolecop if they were randomly choosing someone in order to check out the players they view as most dangerous. Noobscum wouldn't be experienced enough to pick up on anything Day 1 to suggest they should investigate F_A. Especially if TS/Hayl didn't. If a rolecop did see something to cause them to investigate her, it was probably an experienced player who could pick up on these things (at the time TS, chkflip/Hayl, Espe). We know Espe was town, so that again leaves TS/Hayl as possible people that would find something in Day 1 to push them to investigate F_A.

TS and Hayl both settled on lynching Espe after originally wanting to lynch someone else, which could be scum wanting to lynch an easy target.

TS and Hayl are both giving off their fair share of town reads, though, so I honestly don't know what to think. I would consider them worth checking out a bit though. Especially TS, who hasn't come under any major pressure ever.

[gbevilchaos]

You clearly didn't read my post on Espeonage prior to my hammer. I said I was still deciding on what I thought of Espeonage but I was leaning scum, and then I hammered so it was clear I had made my decision -_-

Haylscum, being a pro, would probably gradually change thought process instead of suddenly saying "oh wait - Espe is scum now!"

Coming from a smart player, your defense isn't that strong. I still don't like that either of you (TS and Hayl) jumped on the wagon without being convinced of Espescum.

Also, Muffin, why should we all compromise with you? You were wrong on Espe. Not accusing you of being scum, but your reads aren't the only valid ones (clearly, based on Espetown).

[gbevilchaos]

I still don't like that either of you (TS and Hayl) jumped on the wagon without being convinced of Espescum.

neither do i

but we needed info. I was confident noragar was scum and I thought we all had a mutual agreement to lynch noragar today if i comprimised with an espe lynch yesterday

sometimes we can't all have our favourite lynch. Yesterday was an example

and it didn't matter to me anyways since I'm still adamant noragar is scum and thought we were lynching him today

Ok, I can understand that. There was just a failure in communication here, I guess.

[gbevilchaos]

@Twisted

This is from post #261 which has your reasoning that Frostbite (who became Haylen) was really likely to be town. Does everything that's happened since then make you more certain or less certain of that read?

While that is an interesting question and I would like to hear the answer, could you answer some questions for me?

Who is your #1 pick as scum? Why?
Who is your #1 pick as town? Why?

Also, please list general reads of all other players.

[gbevilchaos]

Who is your #1 pick as scum? Why?
Who is your #1 pick as town? Why?

Also, please list general reads of all other players.

My #1 pick as town is Muffin because forest gave a strong indication that she investigated that spot and found it to be town.

My #1 pick as scum is harder since my two leading scum reads just flipped town. I suspected CC early on when there wasn't much else to go on, but since then have softened my view on that and can attribute the early behavior to newbiness. Since Mothras has taken over, there still isn't a whole lot of material to go on, but what I have seen seems townish (logical statements, nothing out of line).

Earlier, I had strong town reads on Twisted, Haylen, and gbevil, so now I have to start over and re-evaluate everything from the beginning. This is what prompted the question above to Twisted. I'm going back and questioning the things that I had believed before to see whether they still make sense. At this point, I don't have any reason to suspect one of the four remaining players over the others.

That sounds townish to me. I would expect scum to have an argument to lynch someone, especially when they're on the chopping block. I don't see how that response was possibly scum motivated. Now I'm unsure on noragar scum. :/

[gbevilchaos]

-_- For goodness sake. THAT WASN'T A SLIP. PEOPLE ONLY PERCEIVE I'VE MADE A SLIP IF I'M TOWN.

Have you ever lost a game as scum? If so, then you make slips...

And if Muffin really is town, then he needs to review his arrogance.

After the recent way you've been posting, you do as well. It's not impossible that you're scum. No need to attack Muffin for entertaining the possibility that you don't draw town 100% of the time.

Muffin didn't misrepresent your conclusions. Those were what he directly quoted. They were all neutral conclusions, more or less.

->

I am spotting quite a few scum motivations from Noragars post and would agree that he is quite scummy here.

->

I have liked Noragar's responses and am currently giving him the benefit of the doubt.

->

I could see a potential scum flip coming from Forest.

->

At the present time, I would like a CC lynch over any of the other two players I have done analysis on.

->

I will NOT support a Gbe lynch today.

<- Actually, this is the only one that really isn't wishy-washy.
->

Might be willing to lynch Espy today. I'll make a definate decision soon.

Noragar: He is giving a few scum motivations, but I like his responses and will give him the benefit of the doubt. Doesn't conclude either way.
Forest: Could see a potential scum flip (very unsure sounding)
CC: I would like a CC lynch over the others (you never say you want a CC lynch because he's scummy, just that he's the best option. you aren't committing to anything)
Me: This one was pretty confident, as muffin was sure to note in his analysis (not leaving anything out = town, by the way)
Espe: Might be willing to lynch = very uncertain

It isn't the strongest case ever Haylen, but he didn't misrepresent a thing. Your response to pressure, which was full of emotion instead of facts, was scummy, on the other hand.

And what's with the OMGUS pressure on TS/Muffin? You've said TS is likely to be town for a long time. I don't see him being scum either. Muffin is practically confirmed town based on how F_A posted about chkflip/muffin. F_A said in a post "Muffin is town" with no reason or qualifying statement. She never did anything similar with anyone else. She talked about her "gut read" of muffin in several other posts. What more do you need to consider him town?

Your response to pressure was way more scummy than I saw you based on Muffin's case.

Vote Haylen

FAST POSTED:

explain yourself comradé muffin

Buddying.

They were the two people on the bandwagon together. As far as being on the bandwagon, they were together in a group. Therefore, they were comrades. You're reading way too far into that. Desperate attempts at building a case without reading his ISO. Can you please go ahead and make a case against TS if you think he's scummy? It would be interesting to say the least.

If you're town, do me a favour and do a concise analysis of the other players and tell me which of them you think is likely to flip scum and why.

Not right now.

And that helps town...how?

[gbevilchaos]

I call everyoe comradé, compadré, amigo etc.
It's in most of my games

I do it in RL too. It's my thing

Hasn't Haylen played with you before? I thought you mentioned that when she joined.

[gbevilchaos]

Screw my grammar.

At least you spelled grammar right.

I call everyoe comradé, compadré, amigo etc.
It's in most of my games

I do it in RL too. It's my thing

Hasn't Haylen played with you before? I thought you mentioned that when she joined.

Comment please TS, because if you've played with Haylen before, she should know your meta to some degree and that you tend to call people names like compadre or comrade. This is important to some degree, as it could show her trying to be manipulative in throwing her case together against you.

Gbdevil's post.

gb evil chaos, no devil in there

@Haylen: Still want a detailed case against TS if you think there is one.

[gbevilchaos]

Comment please TS, because if you've played with Haylen before, she should know your meta to some degree and that you tend to call people names like compadre or comrade. This is important to some degree, as it could show her trying to be manipulative in throwing her case together against you.

I've only played one game before with haylen. I didn't post much (it was my first large game) and she replaced in. So maybe not.

Alright then, I guess that doesn't apply.

[gbevilchaos]

So I've been debating how best to approach this issue.

And I can't really see a way to explain why I think Haylen is town without outing my role. I also think there's a very good chance I've been rolecopped by now, anyway.

I'm doc, and I protected Twisted N1. (I also protected him N2 because I had a hunch that the reason Haylen never ISO'd Twisted or chkflip/me is because she rolecopped me N1 and the kill on Twisted was blocked - it made sense at the time)

Now, there are a few reasons I think this means Haylen is town.

The first, and most obvious reason to me, which I was talking about on the last page, is the Twisted-Muffin ultimatum. Haylen-scum knows there's no way in hell Twisted is getting lynched, and pushing for a lynch on the person Haylen-scum tried to NK N1 makes absolutely no sense. It makes even less sense for Haylen-scum to give up on me being scum due to f_a's crumbs and immediately attack Twisted.

The second reason I think Haylen is town is because she forgot about the lack of NK N1. Although this could very well have been a ploy by Haylen-scum, it

looked

genuine to me, and there's no way Haylen-scum would have forgotten about the lack of NK N1.

Also, now that I actually think about it, Twisted was a bad NK choice for Haylen-scum, anyway. It should have been fairly obvious that he was the most likely target for any protective PR that exists in the game. It looks more like a mistake newb-scum would make than Haylen-scum. Also Twisted seemed very ready to be all buddy-buddy with Haylen, so I'm more inclined to believe she would have used that to her advantage in this game than go for a NK on him.

This is why I don't think Haylen is scum, although kudos to her if she is scum; she outplayed me here. Also, Twisted, I am disappointed. I crumbed it so hard when I entered this game. I even dropped a Quaroath reference in my ISO#14 (#498) that I expected you to immediately pick up on, given the timing. Tsk, tsk.

The fact that numerous people came out at the beginning of this day phase explaining that I must be town because of f_a's crumbing gives me a bad, bad feeling. I want to look over it again.

I need to go back and look at CC+Morthas again. And I need to re-evaluate my read on noragar. I also want to go over Twisted's ISO and look at why one of those three would have gone after Twisted N1. Out of gb, noragar and Morthas, I'd say Morthas is most likely scum here. But now that I've outed myself, I actually want to think this through and end this today rather than going to MyLo.

Wasn't all this information available to you when you made your case? *facepalm*

Back to the drawing board.

I've had a town read from Morthas/CC the entire game, so out of those two I would have to go with noragar as the more likely scum.

So Muffin is confirmed town because F_A investigated him.
TS is confirmed town because Muffin protected him, resulting in a no kill.
Scum lies in (noragar, Hayl, Morthas).

[gbevilchaos]

So I've been debating how best to approach this issue.

And I can't really see a way to explain why I think Haylen is town without outing my role. I also think there's a very good chance I've been rolecopped by now, anyway.

I'm doc, and I protected Twisted N1. (I also protected him N2 because I had a hunch that the reason Haylen never ISO'd Twisted or chkflip/me is because she rolecopped me N1 and the kill on Twisted was blocked - it made sense at the time)

Now, there are a few reasons I think this means Haylen is town.

The first, and most obvious reason to me, which I was talking about on the last page, is the Twisted-Muffin ultimatum. Haylen-scum knows there's no way in hell Twisted is getting lynched, and pushing for a lynch on the person Haylen-scum tried to NK N1 makes absolutely no sense. It makes even less sense for Haylen-scum to give up on me being scum due to f_a's crumbs and immediately attack Twisted.

TS was the most lynchable out of those pushing for her lynch, so I don't see your point. You were basically confirmed down. TS was not.

The second reason I think Haylen is town is because she forgot about the lack of NK N1. Although this could very well have been a ploy by Haylen-scum, it

looked

genuine to me, and there's no way Haylen-scum would have forgotten about the lack of NK N1.

That's completely WIFOM. As experienced scum, Hayl could easily have conveniently "forgotten" about the no lynch to look townish.

Also, now that I actually think about it, Twisted was a bad NK choice for Haylen-scum, anyway. It should have been fairly obvious that he was the most likely target for any protective PR that exists in the game. It looks more like a mistake newb-scum would make than Haylen-scum. Also Twisted seemed very ready to be all buddy-buddy with Haylen, so I'm more inclined to believe she would have used that to her advantage in this game than go for a NK on him.

This could also be cleverscum. There are 4 noobs in the game at the end of Day 1. If TS is targeted, regardless of whether or not it hits, then noobscum is assumed. No experienced player would attack the IC in a newbie game, normally. Hayl could easily slip under the radar this way. While this argument certainly doesn't establish Haylscum, I just wanted to throw this out there. We shouldn't count Hayl out entirely as possible scum, especially with her response to pressure.

This is why I don't think Haylen is scum, although kudos to her if she is scum; she outplayed me here. Also, Twisted, I am disappointed. I crumbed it so hard when I entered this game. I even dropped a Quaroath reference in my ISO#14 (#498) that I expected you to immediately pick up on, given the timing. Tsk, tsk.

The fact that numerous people came out at the beginning of this day phase explaining that I must be town because of f_a's crumbing gives me a bad, bad feeling. I want to look over it again.

I need to go back and look at CC+Morthas again. And I need to re-evaluate my read on noragar. I also want to go over Twisted's ISO and look at why one of those three would have gone after Twisted N1. Out of gb, noragar and Morthas, I'd say Morthas is most likely scum here. But now that I've outed myself, I actually want to think this through and end this today rather than going to MyLo.

I read through this defense of Hayl again and realized that it isn't necessarily as airtight as I first assumed. I think we need to revisit this a bit. Specifically, I would like a response from Hayl. I'm also still waiting on links to games where she was town when she reacted to pressure with emotion, as she claimed it was part of her meta.

[gbevilchaos]

The Whole Asking for a Scum/Town List Thing
What Haylen Sees:
My point of view on this is that Haylen was just asking everybody to do what she was doing at that time (which is why she excused herself from doing it), which was do an iso of every player and write their opinions on them. However, town reads can be useful information to the scum, so she did not tell everybody that she wanted the list to have a scale on it ie Haylen didn't want to know who the most 'protown' player was. She just wanted some sort of opinion from them.

Town-Flay's side of the Chessboard:
Again, it is his belief that Haylen specifically meant what she said, ie taking what she said literally. She wanted everybody to make their most protown reads known in order to make it easier for scum. Thus it was his believe that she is scum. This would mean that Flay is town and that Haylen is scum. Haylen, an experienced player should know what she is talking about and needs to be careful with her words. Thus to Flay, Haylen is scum.

Now lets flip the board and presume that Flay is scum:
Flay is a very experienced player, much much more than Haylen. He knows that. He knows that he is much better at manipulating and would have to be subtle in order to get a mislynch so early in the game and to make it through to endgame aswell. What subtler way than to twist a persons words without appearing as you are doing so - just by taking what they say literally. A experienced player would never use semantics to get a lynch if they are town - if they are scum, however, it's much easier to get away with it. Ditto with the Role vs Playstyle thing. He can't argue that Haylen wouldn't do something as town because she am experienced player, because that means that he also wouldn't use semantics to build a case as an experienced town player. It's hypocritical and if he changes his mind and says 'no no', then that's called backtracking which is scummy aswell. This is a Catch 22 situation, there's no way he can get out of this one.

Thus why, I don't think there is any way that Flay can be town.

That is a significantly different defense compared to your more emotional defense in here.

[gbevilchaos]

Also:

What's pissing me off about this game is it needs more testosterone -_- Very rarely do I get on with girls.

So I'm gonna start with this.
The wagon on me is ridiculous. It's for stupid reasons. Yeh, I haven't posted a lot of content because ive been V/LA. The sudden changes of emotion? F-off, I'm dealing with it. So what if I'm an emotional player.

Also, posting content is genuinely painful for me. -.-

@ camn (opinion of 381) - Those scenarios are completely different. For a start, you yourself didn't read the role PM's ect and didn't know the scum could Day Talk. That's not scummy. Obviously missing huge cases against players is. So that's a really bad comparison you're trying to set me up with. By the way, I can see exactly what you're trying to set up. You want me to say 'Not reading the rules isn't scummy, but not reading content is.' Then when I say they are, you would have strawmanned the hell out of it. I can see right through you.

camn

This just shows that we should lynch you. If this is the truth, you are nothing but a town liability.

Funny that you've never mentioned that in the games we've played together when you were town. You know exactly what my town play is like, and it's pretty obvious that you're trying to set up a lynch in this statement. In fact, you've never even tried to policy lynch me before - so why start now? What's different about this game that wasn't in the others?

Maybe even a little too hoopla-haylen-partners long. I see I am not the only one.

Says this, but never follows it up, in fact it reaks of distancing because she calls Hoopla town for the rest of the game and just completely forgets that she said that. To add to the matter, she also said that others have said the same which suggests to me that she was just following the opinions of the town which is scummy because it shows a desire to keep on the towns good side so she isn't lynched.

The rest of the holes I leave for the town to see, as I am on my iPod, and can't type like I like!

Witholding information from the town, this looks like to me. That's scummy because a town aligned player would want the town to know everything that they know (unless they're a PR).

Also, FTR... Let me lay out the camn-hater playbook for you all:

Buddying.
Votehopping.
Policy Voting
Lurkerhunting.
Too attractive.

This is also scummy because now that she has giving away people accuse her of when she's town, she can do what the heck she likes as scum and get away with it. What makes me doubly suspicious is that I've witnessed her do these as scum in other games.

---off topic---

@haylen

This winds me up. It makes me twitchy. Can anyone guess WHY it makes me twitchy? Because there's no space between the @ symbol and the name.
----------------

But I want you to know that if you ARE scum, I

will

catch you. You

will

hang. And you

will

not manage to mislynch me.

This seems a bit over the top for a camn-town to say. Particularly if it's a threat. Town players shouldn't go round threatening to lynch town players without posting evidence first :/ camn hadn't said anything to combat UK's posts against her and then decides to threaten her without giving a good reason.

Also.. I suggest everyone ISO Paws right now... then tell me how that is indicative of newbie-TOWN play?

Tell me. Did or did not, Paws flip town? And she was also a newbie. Thus she was newb-town? Was I not right until I allowed myself to be pressured into viewing Paws a non-newbie? Tell me. Why am I not wrong about you?

Wiggle room?!
"Wiggle room" is your case?

Hypocritical. It's not like any of your cases have been better. In fact, you've barely posted any. This doesn't equal camn-town to me. Especially seeing as you seem to be quite content in following DGB round like a sheep. Try writing your own opinions. Not doing so is scummy because it shows again that you're keeping information from the town.

Haylen, OTOH, = town.
She would buddy me as scum.

WIFOM. How can you be sure of this if you have never played against me with me as scum? As I recall I've always been VT in our games. (Correct me if I'm wrong btw). Also, what does OTOH mean. I'm actually more likely to buddy as town as demonstrated in my first game on site (with Talitha, who was scum), with ZachRulez in Patricks Newbie Game not sure of the number, but Zach was scum there too. I buddied you back in C3t1ns where you were SK. If you want more examples I'm sure I could provide them. It's a town tactic of mine, now I've worked out that the people who buddy me and cause me to buddy back are scum. Cause that's what I do, I buddy back if someone's buddying me, then I try to get them lynched. This makes me a bit of an ass in my opinion, but in the majority of cases where I've done it, I've been correct. Hmm...I'm gonna go ask Zach if he's still pissed off about that...apparently the memory is annoying which makes me giggle especially since it was my first town victory.

In order to find scum, you have to identify things that people do or say when they are scum.. that they DON'T do or say as town!

And yet there is an inconsistancy with what camn says here:

She will then top it off with a meta-argument of what I WOULD HAVE done as town in other games, and conclude that I am scum.

In that same post camn implies that meta=crap case and yet is advocating it in the first quote. This is scummy because a) it looks like teaching a bad method that camn doesn't believe herself works, b) it's completely backtracking on what she had previously said.

She says I'm scum and then gives no reason to back it up AGAIN. I'm beginning to see a pattern here: I don't believe that at any point in this game that camn will give any particularly strong reasons for voting somebody unless it's a policy lynch.

Your thoughts on Haylen? Who almost certainly can daytalk?

Don't like this. It's sowing the seeds again with DGB's analysis and opinions of me.

In her next post, she does a complete turn around. She has mentioned that she is certain that I'm scum and then votes for Apok. I've noticed that she seems to back off me whenever I'm close to being lynched. This indicates to me that she is attempting to get me to lylo so she can finally make some sort of case on me there, everyone will believe her cause she's influencial. Then I'll get lynched and we'll lose. -_-

Oooh, Yay! Time for some meta. Mine this time.

Like Apok told you to take it down a notch.

You know full well from past experience that there are very few people on site who I will listen to if they request I do anything. Having only played with Apok once and quite briefly, I might add, she is not one of them.

In that same post, If camn really wants to know why my behaviour changed so drastically. Here you go: That day, I received a PM from Flay basically calling me an attention seeking brat. That pissed me off quite a bit. I raged for a while, sending a well worded PM back. Then I got thinking, what if I really did seem like an attention seeker when I blow up in games. What if my emotions are what really cause me to be a bad player, because I can't let go of thing once I start raging.

Would you like to contest this?

Wow.
THat is, without exception, exactly my scumlist right now.
Almost in that exact order, too. With cepi where I am.

Here, have another example of camn not thinking for herself.

---------------

Just as an add on, Ojanen is given me tingly feelings. I'm not sure whether this is a good or bad thing yet, but I'm going to keep my eyes peeled.

Responds to pressure by making a case on someone, detailed with quotes etc. Never went into that detail when attacking Muffin/TS. It should also be noted that the case in that game had a much more sure conclusion than any case Hayl has done this game. I'm not impressed with the comparison of Hayl's town meta with this game's play.

[gbevilchaos]

Unvote

until Hayl response.

[gbevilchaos]

I still think it's TS and scum forgot to kill.

That's something I considered but his overall play makes me think he's town in this game, and I definitely don't think he'd 'forget' to submit a NK, if TS is scum, it was a conscious decision not to NK, and it was a really bad decision considering the new newbie setup (which i think favours town, especially after a D1 scum lynch).

This. TS has been active all game. Why would the IC not send in a kill? That's never really an advantage. Also, he was one of the main people on the Otolia bandwagon. I see no advantage in a major bussing attempt during Day 1 when your scum partner was below the radar for the first half of the day.

[gbevilchaos]

VOTE: Haylen

I am dissapoint

You were already voting for her.

I would appreciate it if no one else voted for Haylen until she gives a detailed read on Morthas, since she claimed he is the most likely scum choice. Also, please rank all players from most town to most scum.

[gbevilchaos]

Also, please rank all players from most town to most scum.

Most Town
noragar
zMuffin
Twisted
gbevilchaos
Morthas
Haylen
Most Scum

That was specifically targeted at Hayl, but it isn't a bad idea for everyone to do it.

Most Town
Muffin
Twisted
Morthas
Noragar
Hayl
Most Scum

[gbevilchaos]

*shrugs* I have nothing else to say or defend myself with. Just no lynch in mylo for goodness sake.

And think before you vote in lylo. Don't rush into things, consider all options. You were given time for a reason: use it.

Before someone latches onto these posts as evidence of town, I want to describe scum reasoning behind posting this (especially intelligent!scum reasoning, which Hayl certainly would be):

With the partner already lynched, the last surviving scum doesn't get hurt from giving advice to town to use after their own lynch. If they are lynched, the game would already be over. Intelligent scum would post something like this because it sounds like town trying to be able to give helpful advice before they die, when in fact it is scum giving off town tells that will not hurt their chances of winning, as they're already seriously on the chopping block.

In other words, it's better to help out town and survive (some chance of a win) then keep good advice from town and die (100% loss).

I'm not in any way saying this is a scumtell. It definitely is not. I can easily see how these posts could be viewed as a towntell however, and it isn't one of those either. Intelligent!town and intelligent!scum would both have plenty of motivation for making these posts.

Also,

I feel bad about lynching Haylen now..

Until next time eh?

Why do you feel bad about scumhunting? It's part of the game? It's like you're apologizing for a town lynch before it happens...

I'll have to revisit my read on you. I want to check out your ISO before day ends. Please unvote, someone.

[gbevilchaos]

Well, that night kill was pretty obvious and tells us nothing about who is scum. Lovely.

TS, please link me to the most recent game where you were town and the most recent game where you were scum. Both newbie games, if possible. If you've never been scum in a newbie game, then try to link to a small game where you were.

[gbevilchaos]

@gbevil: as scum do you bus hard/ can you link me to a scumgame of yours?

I don't normally bus at all until near endgame. There's no reason to bus in first few days, imo. People see it as a scumtell, so obvious distancing of your scum partner is the same thing as obvious buddying of your scum partner.

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 0&t=145162

That's my only completed scum game (not counting one where I was SK, but that won't help you determine if/how I would bus). I'm not sure how helpful it would be. It was run by a well-known bastard mod on the site. If you read just the roles at the end, you'll see that it was one-sided against scum from the beginning. My character was actually eaten by a dead person when we would have won. =(

[gbevilchaos]

what did you gleam from my games other than that I got lynched d1 in my scum game?

Honestly haven't read them yet. I'm currently working. Will check them during slow periods in the live support system. Expect results in 2-4 hours, considering that this is normally the most active times.

[gbevilchaos]

of course

I forget you Americans have your ritual today

Nah, I'm just a workaholic. My salary depends on how much time I work, so I'm on the website I work on semi-constantly.

Early conclusions: small posts are in TS's meta for both town and scum. this was one of the things I was a bit worried about in your ISO, since I often equate small posts to lack of analysis and fluff (you haven't done this, but that's the generality that I often default back on)

[gbevilchaos]

VOTE: gbevil

wagon time

VOTE: Captain

Just the reaction i was looking for

Putting someone at L-1 in the RVS reeks of opportunistic scum hoping for a quickhammer

Either a clever scum ruse to play off of noobtown, or a great scumhunting tactic. Townish.

what are you talking about?

It's page 3. You can't just give up, especially if town

and I have no-idea what you mean when you say' those roles were by chances'

Wouldn't make any sense for scum. Why encourage an easy lynch target to keep trying and stay in the game? Opportunistic scum wouldn't have said this.

...

now do you see why I didn't vote gbevil espe?

nearly had a lynch already.

Again, makes no sense for opportunistic scum.

it is because I live in Ireland, which is GMT and also go to a boarding school

STOP RIGHT THERE

that is the most awesome thing I read all day

I's great to know I'm not the only GMT'er here
and tbh, I always wanted to go to a boarding school after reading harry potter :p

you sir are avery cool person

Buddy attempt, possibly scummy.

This of course doesn't mean that noragar couldn't be scum. He just isn't dumb scum if he is. I was fishing for a tell, and didn't get one.

How do you know all of this?

Stupid pressure on me for stupid reasons. Didn't understand it at the time and don't understand it not. Could be trying to pick apart the player who mostly everybody was considering a town read. Not necessarily that scummy though, could just be thinking that I'm an expert who made a new account to cheat my way through noob games or something.

before anyone even consiers hammering I want a list of reads from CC and Otolia and a juicy catchup post from espe

Looking for reads and helpful info going into the next day. No possible reason for scum to want this.

frostbite is cleared for sure if otolia flips scum

Lord of graves was so close to hammering him and even Otolia has said he could be scum, but not obviously enough for him to get credit from it has a bus

No reason for scum to try clearing people.

Not going to quote the countless posts, but TS pushed hard for an Otolia lynch. Would make no sense for scum on Day 1.

Conclusions:

I don't need to go any farther than Day 1. TS is clearly town. Pushing for reads from all player, trying to confirm townies, hard pushing for lynch of actual scum - TS is either town or an idiot. And he's bad at playing scum apparently, so that just further suggests that he's town if he seems like obvious town.

So now, is it Morthas or Noragar? =/

I want to see both Morthas and Noragar pick their most likely scum target and build a case against them.

[gbevilchaos]

I advise you to look more at D2 of the town game. I wasn't very active D1 and D2 i made much more analysis

Not worried about it. I just wanted to see if smallish posts are normal for your meta, and they are. You've done analysis in this game, it's just been short and concise like it is in all your games, town or scum.

[gbevilchaos]

yeah, i buddies to frost

I couldn't help myself

also, some of the posts your quotes wouldn't make sense as opportunistic scum, sure, but remember I'm an IC trying to earn his licence too so I wouldn't want players to give up would I? That's just a point to remember if you change your mind and want to think I'm scum

I look forwards to your morthas/noragar cases. I've been trying to make one too

I don't plan to make those cases until Noragar and Morthas each make a case. I don't want them to steal stuff from mine. Their cases should be quite telling.

[gbevilchaos]

yeah, i buddies to frost

I couldn't help myself

And I can understand that. I said some stuff that was considered a buddy attempt to Espe because of his superb avatar.

R.I.P. Lie to Me

FASTPOSTED

@Morthas: I would do that if I had the necessary time. I'm splitting all my time between finding a second job and working at my first to get a decent sized pay check. My dad just lost his job and my college fund that I've put a little money into is seeming to look smaller every day.

Not V/LA for me either, but I'm only going to make cases I feel I have to.

[gbevilchaos]

@Gbevil: Can I get your opinion on this post?

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS.

Ah well, I got nothing to hide. Remember my sacrifice!

The cop should have an easier time guessing who the mafia is right?

It made sense to me :/

Guilty conscience, possibly. Why would town dream of being lynched? Could also be excitement in the game, I guess.

That kind of strikes me as town or smart scum trying to convince people that he's willing to die. I doubt CC would be smart scum, so I don't know.

He wanted to place all of the scumhunting on a possible non-existent cop. He didn't understand what scumhunting was at that time and assumed that only cop could be trusted to find scum. This strikes me as noobtown.

Overall, if I had to make a conclusion based on only this post, I would say noobtown.

Personally, I think NoragarScum is more likely than MorthasScum. The only reason we didn't already lynch noragar is because of Muffin's obvtown read on him, but Muffin was wrong twice. He's lost some credibility with me after being wrong about Espe and Hayl. All remaining players were among Muffin's town or probtown reads. Obviously, he got something wrong.

[gbevilchaos]

@Morthas - have you ever been in a MyLo situation before?

[gbevilchaos]

Prod dodge post.

I'm still here, but there's honestly no reason to post with half of the game V/LA. We have several weeks to discuss whatever we want to and we already know what we're going to vote (no lynch, duh), so we might as well wait for at least one of the players to get back. Things can pick back up when TS gets back on Sunday.

[gbevilchaos]

k, back

the plan is To NL today and whichever of me and chaos are around tommorow, cast the hammer after noragar and morthas cross-vote

not sure if ready to end the day yet...

No need to end the day yet. I think we should have at least another few days.

Still waiting on noragar's Morthas read and Morthas' noragar read.

[gbevilchaos]

Weee what an amazing present~~ A page full of prod dodges, come to think of it...

As I explained, no point in posting with half our players when we have 2 weeks left to make the decision that we've already decided on - lol.

And this can be your birthday present - you don't have to do any catching up!

[gbevilchaos]

Few problems here...
Bolded below.

Sorry I didn't get around to posting last night. I had an Evony emergency come up that I had to deal with.

LOL

Reading through Morthas' iso, the thing that strikes me first is that there's an awful lot of really short posts with little to no substance. Doing a quick count, out of 54 total posts by Morthas, 41 of them (over 75%) have been one or two lines. And that's even counting post #988 above as one of the multiple line posts. Overall, it just strikes me as trying to build up post count, but saying as little as possible in the process.

See after quote, I have a bit of a problem with this.

He doesn't really give reasoning behind who he suspects as scum, but I did notice an odd pattern to it in regards to how he suspect me and others:

In his initial reads (#3/#510), I'm his second most likely scum candidate (behind Espe), the two of the three players who were getting the most scum heat from everyone at the time. The third, forest, who was getting the most heat from the town and was eventually lynched, Morthas said he had a town read on, but never made any points or arguments to question the lynch.

After forest flipped town, Morthas changed his stance on me (#10/#716) and started saying he suspected TS or Gbdevil (#16/#746), two of the most solid, generally accepted town reads. Next, after Muffin confirmed TS as town, he changed his list to "I say it's either EVIL or Haylen" (#23/#840), again with no explanation of either suspicion.

It's unlikely that scum would first target only the weak-looking players and then about face and attack the stronger players. Town is likely to attack everyone who they see as scummy, especially in a tough situation. Scum is likely to pick out the weakest links and wait for the stronger ones to mess up. They can attack the slips much easier than they can attack player giving off strong town-reads at every opportunity. This wouldn't make sense for how scum would play, in my opinion.

To me, this seems like a very plausible way for scum to play it. There's already a ton of suspicion on me, so go after the more solid town reads. If he's able to get those solid town reads lynched, then it would be easier to get me lynched in the late game because everyone already suspected me. How much chance would he have if instead of being in the final 4 with me, TS, and gbevil, he was in the final 4 with TS, gbevil and either Haylen or Muffin?

Yes, but how likely are you to be lynched if you attack the strongest town player with no reasoning? Wouldn't make sense for scum in my opinion.

Now for my other thing that I didn't what to quote above. Here is the last 6 posts of TS's ISO currently (ISO #270-275)

I'm leaning noragar scum

K, well the way I see it scum is likely Morthas or norgar

and If I lynch noragar Muffin will never forgive me. At least it's his fault if noragar scum wins the game because he was the one saying he was obvtown.

there have been some real obvtown things coming from CC though...

@Gbevil: Can I get your opinion on this post?

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS. Ah well, I got nothing to hide. Remember my sacrifice! The cop should have an easier time guessing who the mafia is right? It made sense to me :/

^I agree

/offtopic
@morthas: I figured out a real easy way to remove the white from avatars like you were asking me earlier. Still interested?

oh, I'm V/La until sunday btw
sorry

k, back

the plan is To NL today and whichever of me and chaos are around tommorow, cast the hammer after noragar and morthas cross-vote

not sure if ready to end the day yet...

Now these are short posts as well. Is TS scummy because of it? You've never mentioned this as a scum read from TS before.

[gbevilchaos]

I grabbed a voting history for noragar with analysis. Interesting stuff. I also noticed one other oddity that I think pretty much confirms noragarscum, in my head anyway.

Still, I want to see Morthas' read tomorrow. Will post mine immediately afterwards.

[gbevilchaos]

What I was trying to get at was the fact that short posts could just be a part of his meta. Is it a helpful part? Certainly not, but we need to consider the possibility that he just tends to make short posts. At this point, lynching unhelpful town results in a loss.

Having said that, Morthas, please provide a link to your most recent newbie scum game and newbie town game.

Let's look into his meta before we make conclusions based on his general posting style.

[gbevilchaos]

Skimmed, posting later today.
@Evil: I posted links to my games in a previous post.

Ah, totally missed that. Sucks that you don't have a full scum game.

Can't post anything long now, will post after my college class.

[gbevilchaos]

Waiting for Morthas to say something.

Ditto.

[gbevilchaos]

During night phase, noragar please look at Morthas' meta and be prepared to discuss during Day 5 how it affects your case. I'm not going to drag out this day phase by another 2-3 real days waiting for that, though, so:

Vote: no lynch

[gbevilchaos]

Dang, i was hoping evil would get shot. LyLo now, sooo whatdoyouthink guys?

And why is that?

I would like a defense from both of you regarding the case made against you in the last day. I'm currently leaning towards noragarscum, but there is no rush for a lynch. A mistake would result in a loss, obviously.

[gbevilchaos]

Noragar's voting history:

ISO#7: CC/Morthas
- Already 1 vote on CC, I had FoSd him the post above.
- No reasoning provided (literally a one liner with only the vote)

ISO #13: Chkflip
- 2 votes on noragar, Chkflip was the second
- The only other was TS, giving off town reads left and right
- possible OMGUS vote?

ISO #20: Otolia
- 4th vote on Otolia at the time
- possible late bussing attempt? Otolia was already obvious scum

ISO #23: Chkflip
- start of Day 2
- places his vote back where it was before Otolia
- still no reasoning

ISO #30: Espe
- 1 vote on Espe already
- 3 votes on noragar, Espe is the only other one with a vote on him
- Reasoning (or lack thereof): "I agree Espe and forest are the two most likely scum candidates. I'd support a lynch of either of them at this point. I don't see myself ever voting for TS or Haylen."
- grasping at straws?

ISO #42: Hayl
- 2 votes on Hayl already, puts Hayl at L-1

He seems to frequently attack the already weak players (#7, #20, #30, #42). He never attacked a very strong town read (TS, muffin). This is how I would expect scum to play.

Important note: Until ISO #18 (Real #334), noragar NEVER even mentioned Otolia's name. Ever. He then placed the vote on Otolia (#20) two hours later. I find it interesting that he didn't comment on Otolia's wagon before then. Hmm...

[gbevilchaos]

As town, why would I want to attack strong town reads if I agreed that they were town? I would expect scum to play (at least one possible way for scum to play) by planting small seeds about the strong town reads that they would be able to expand upon later to create doubt on those town reads.

This is correct, but no one gives 100% town reads. Take TS for example. There was one post at the end of Day 3 that caught me off guard and just seemed scummy to me, even though everything before that was a town read. As a result, I re-read his posts during the game and looked into his meta in order to re-confirm that he was a town read.

Everyone slips up, both as town as scum. It's the reason we can find scum and it's the reason why mislynches occur. People give off reads that they don't mean to. For this reason, I would expect even strong town reads to give off a scummy read every once in a while, and I would expect a town player who is being vigilant for scum to pick up on at least one (especially you, since your choices for most likely scum were gone after Night 2 and you needed to find new scum candidates). This can best be seen in Muffin's first case against Hayl. He pressured a player who was previously considered strong town because she had given off a few scum reads.

I would expect cautious scum who doesn't want to risk outing himself to avoid going against the strongest town reads (TS, Muffin) so that he can just NK them and avoid throwing himself out there as potentially scummy.

Would you agree with that assessment? This is one of my first games, so it is possible that this is just the way I would play and not how most would.

[gbevilchaos]

@Morthas - Waiting on your defense against noragar's case on you (as well as a response to noragar's defense, if you think it's necessary)

[gbevilchaos]

Lol, drunk morthas is a funny morthas.

I have some stuff I want to post up regarding Morthas' last post, but I'm kind of busy at the moment, so it might be a bit before I have a chance. Expect a larger post from me within a few hours.

[gbevilchaos]

Also, you posted a while back that you had something in the Otolia voting that indicated I was scum. I'd like to see details on that also. I'm curious why you find someone that had an active hand in leading to the scum lynch to be more suspicious than someone who stayed clear of the voting.

There is no one left who stayed clear of the voting. The next most suspicious are those that look like they obviously bussed. Morthas was right in his logic there.

Actually, to be fair, CC (later Morthas) didn't vote for Otolia. He was V/LA though.

Not going to bother quoting, but Morthas is right that inconsistent behavior can be a scum tell. At the same time, I don't think it is in this case. Correct me if I'm wrong, but noob town is probably rather likely to take a back seat and try to learn on the first few days. They won't know how to build a case on Day 1. Noragar's out of character scumhunting could just be a result of him gaining enough experience that he feels he can effectively scum hunt and should make a case. This progression is something I would view as normal in a newbie game.

[gbevilchaos]

I did an analysis of noragar's voting habits above (Post #1015), which I considered to be a case against him. Do you want me to ISO him as well? It seems like I would be restating what's already been said by you and just about everyone else over the course of the game, since noragar has been pressured for the majority of the game. I can still do an ISO if you'd like to see one.

[gbevilchaos]

Was it:

1. You were "scum skimming" and didn't realize that TS had been proven town?
2. You thought that (confirmed doc) Muffin might have been intentionally trying to sabotage the game by lying about TS's alibi.
3. You were trying to set up the "brilliant" combo of seeming less sure about TS, then coming back after the night kill to say "Dang, i was hoping evil would get shot.". You really thought gbevil would be influenced by that??
4. Some other reason.

Numbah 3 lD
A silly but hopeful plan, i was trying to influence scum to shoot Evil because due to their logical pathtrack.

@gbevil, what is you reaction to Morthas' attempted defense here?

I think he was trying to influence an opportunistic scum to shoot me, since he was saying he thought I was definitely town. I can understand the plan. If he thought TS was basically confirmed town, then me dying would confirm you as scum by PoE. It's a plan that only town would need to do (or smart scum, I guess, since anything that town would do could be done by smart scum). It makes sense.

[gbevilchaos]

I'll do an ISO of noragar by the way as requested, but it may take a while. I'm a bit busy for the next day or two.

[gbevilchaos]

EBWOP: I also have the ability to self vote, my vote is precious.

Don't do that. Self voting is suicidal. If you are actually town, noragar would quick-hammer you and we would lose. I have to wonder about your motive for saying that at all.

Sorry if I'm coming across as harsh, but I completely meant to. I will be incredibly pissed if we lose because you self-vote.

[gbevilchaos]

ISOing noragar as requested:

I'm WAY too tired to trim this ISO down, so I'm writing my thoughts on posts as I have them. I'll write a general conclusion at the bottom to sum it up. Bear with me.

Also, I'm leaving out analysis of noragar's voting habits. See my previous post about his voting history for those.

All numbers in the quotes are ISO numbers.

Questions to be answered,
1. What, if any, experience do you have at mafia?

This will be my second game.

If this was a game on a forum, link please. This would be useful to examine what little bit of a meta we can see (especially if you were scum in that game).

Couple questions regarding acronyms. I've these two used commonly: RVS and V/LA. What do they mean? Is there an acronym page on the wiki?

RVS: Random Voting Stage. Most Mafia games start with a phase wherein people vote for silly reasons, until someone slips up or makes a legitimate accusation.

V/LA: Vacation/Limited Access thread, where players should post if they won't be checking MafiaScum.net for more than a few days.

Glossary is here:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... reviations

Helpful town or buddying scum? I'll keep a lookout for other buddy attempts to see if it's a pattern.

Scum skimming detected. Easy town cred attempt detected.

FoS

: noragar

What is scum skimming? It wasn't in the glossary and I can't really respond to the accusation without knowing what it is.

As far as easy town cred, I assume you mean answering someone's question about what abbreviations meant? Really??? That's scummy??? Why single me out to FoS instead of also FoS'ing Twisted who said almost the exact same thing at the exact same time?

Response of emotion to early pressure. This is scummy. He does give logic to defend his post later, though (not bothering to quote it, but it's ISO #9). As I noted at the time he made this post, trying to deflect suspicion onto TS for no reason is scummy.

Well in that case, I claim Vanilla Townie.

And let my final statement be that if the town follows through and lynches me on this little evidence with more than a week to go before the deadline then I hold out very little hope at backdooring a win.

Seems to almost threaten town. I don't know exactly what it is about this post, but I don't like it. "If you lynch me, you'll almost definitely lose." This is incorrect. Town can easily win if they mislynch a townie on Day 1. This is what happens the majority of the time. A townie, while they would be unhappy with it, wouldn't be completely horrified by being lynched Day 1, as long as something could be gained from it by observing voting habits. On the other hand, scum would be very concerned with being lynched Day 1, since it would place the entire game's outcome on their partner's ability to remain undetected for several day phases. This is especially true for the RoleCop, since that is an important role to keep alive for scum.

Oh - and a shout out to gbevil. Thanks for the support.

A second buddy attempt.

I also suspect Chkflip (obviously, since my vote has been on him). My theory up to this point was that of the two scum, one would be from the group of active, aggressive posters (Chkflip, TS, Otolia) and the other would be one of the lurkers (Espe, Frostbite, CC). I've been getting a town read from gbevil and forest. I really don't see a TS/Chkflip partnership unless they're using the most blatant WIFOM strategy imaginable.

In this back and forth over the last couple days, I buy into TS's points more than Otolia's, and I'd be willing to go along with an Otolia lynch for D1. I'm going to go back and re-read the thread to make sure I didn't miss anything the first time through. If I don't find any new insights, I'll likely be changing my vote to Otolia later tonight.

Iso #18/ Real Post #334 is the first time noragar even mentions Otolia's name. I could easily consider this noobscum. If scum is concerned about seeming suspicious when talking about their partner (especially if they are newer), then they might think the best way to avoid issues is to avoid talking about their partner at all. 300+ posts of content without one mention of Otolia's name? Sketchy stuff right there. It would make sense that noragarscum would be forced to post as Otolia's lynch was almost gauranteed for a bus attempt.

I understand that as a townie, the town win condition trumps whether I'm alive or dead at the end of the game. And I have no problem taking a lynch if it helps the town's chance of winning in any way. In this instance, however, the town would have gained nothing. It would have been no different than a lynch on Page 2 during the RVS. At that point, there was no case against me that had any merit, and I really didn't see any useful information that the town would have gained with that lynch.

I disagree. Voting patterns give very clear evidence of who is/isn't scum in the late game. That is the only way a mislynch can benefit town at all. This is a misleading post.

Also, 3 day lurk between #24 and #25.

Yes, townies worry about finding scum. But how is it productive to look for scum in such a way that you appear to be scummier than the true scum are looking. What benefit is it to mislead the rest of the town into thinking you might be scum?

Hiding info from town or holding back in your cases because you think they sound bad is NEVER helpful for town. Townies should always comment on what they see. Doing any less is unhelpful and can result in an easy scum win if you're lynched before you mention what you saw.

Nothing to add at this point. Still voting for Espeonage.

That was a catch up post after another 3 day lurk - lol. If you have nothing to add, reread, reread, reread. Don't post saying you have nothing. Even if you try to grasp for straws, it's better than saying nothing. Who knows, your observations could come in handy down the road, even if they're insignificant now.

Well as long as Espe's going next, then it really doesn't matter which order we're lynched in. But if you're still interested in the "perfect" game, I'd strongly suggest lynching him first and then me.

Very strong town read on this post. This is very much the selfless attitude needed by town. At the same time, his attitude about being lynched had been noted before, so smart noragarscum could be trying to compensate for previous slips.

In much the same way that I became more and more convinced of Otolia's guilt while Otolia and Twisted were going back and forth at the end of Day 1, I'm getting the same vibes from Haylen in this latest interaction since yesterday.

Seems to be pushing the idea that he picked up on Otolia being scum. Possibly trying to retroactively bus?

6 day lurk between #45 and #46

All posts after that have been examined by me recently, so view my own ISO to see those. I've been actively commenting on all posts this day that need any comment. It should also be mentioned, because I don't think I've done this yet, that noragar has been very emotional during this day. This could be a result of him feeling backed into a corner as scum. I've said a few times that noragar seems more scummy than Morthas, so noragarscum would be lashing out with everything possible to change my mind. Noragartown would probably be looking more for facts (as well as considering the possibility of me being scum, which he has never done - Morthas has, which is what I expect from the other townie in a LyLo situation). Example of emotion below:

Since after rereading my own thoughts on Evil (yes, i forget) i am almost 100% convinced he is town, this leaves TS and Noragar.
I have had a strong read on TS as town all game and that hasn't changed, although if anyone has a good case i am willing to listen.

Morthas,

Why were you more sure that gbevil was town than you were that TS was town, even after TS had been proven to be town by Doc Muffin?

Was it:

1. You were "scum skimming" and didn't realize that TS had been proven town?
2. You thought that (confirmed doc) Muffin might have been intentionally trying to sabotage the game by lying about TS's alibi.
3. You were trying to set up the "brilliant" combo of seeming less sure about TS, then coming back after the night kill to say "Dang, i was hoping evil would get shot.".

You really thought gbevil would be influenced by that??

4. Some other reason.

Conclusion: Noragar is more scummy than Morthas is (by a lot). I think I'm about ready to vote, although I'll give noragar a chance to respond and make whatever cases he would like before I do.

[gbevilchaos]

I'll do the same (quoting one post per post)

Well in that case, I claim Vanilla Townie.

And let my final statement be that if the town follows through and lynches me on this little evidence with more than a week to go before the deadline then I hold out very little hope at backdooring a win.

Seems to almost threaten town. I don't know exactly what it is about this post, but I don't like it. "If you lynch me, you'll almost definitely lose." This is incorrect. Town can easily win if they mislynch a townie on Day 1. This is what happens the majority of the time. A townie, while they would be unhappy with it, wouldn't be completely horrified by being lynched Day 1, as long as something could be gained from it by observing voting habits. On the other hand, scum would be very concerned with being lynched Day 1, since it would place the entire game's outcome on their partner's ability to remain undetected for several day phases. This is especially true for the RoleCop, since that is an important role to keep alive for scum.

As I explained later, my frustration wasn't with getting lynched. My frustration was at getting lynched when there was more than a week left before the deadline when there was absolutely no evidence to indicate I was scum, and no credible case made against me. Had I been lynched, it would have indicated that the town players were more interested in random guessing than at scum-hunting. At that point, with 5 townies and 2 scum, town would have had to randomly hit both scum before hitting two other townies in order to win, and the odds would have been severely against doing that.

Had I been lynched there, there would have been practically no information gained. All the voting up to that point had been RVS.

If I were scum, and so very concerned about being lynched Day 1, why would I be so unconcerned about my partner being lynched Day 1 that I would push toward getting him lynched? You can't have the argument both ways.

The votes on you were for many more reasons than random voting. Even if it was random voting (and it most definitely was not), your lynch would have clearly shown us later on who was scummy. Those who push for a quick lynch during random voting are almost always scum, since town has no reason to go for a quick lynch. If the circumstances were as you say they were, your lynch would given us a lot of information.

You never pushed towards your partner being lynched. You voted for him when he was almost definitely being lynched that day. Stating that you "pushed for his lynch" is misleading to the extreme. Also, Mafia RoleCop would be way more concerned with staying alive than Mafia Goon. RoleCop is very important to scum's success.

[gbevilchaos]

I also suspect Chkflip (obviously, since my vote has been on him). My theory up to this point was that of the two scum, one would be from the group of active, aggressive posters (Chkflip, TS, Otolia) and the other would be one of the lurkers (Espe, Frostbite, CC). I've been getting a town read from gbevil and forest. I really don't see a TS/Chkflip partnership unless they're using the most blatant WIFOM strategy imaginable.

In this back and forth over the last couple days, I buy into TS's points more than Otolia's, and I'd be willing to go along with an Otolia lynch for D1. I'm going to go back and re-read the thread to make sure I didn't miss anything the first time through. If I don't find any new insights, I'll likely be changing my vote to Otolia later tonight.

Iso #18/ Real Post #334 is the first time noragar even mentions Otolia's name. I could easily consider this noobscum. If scum is concerned about seeming suspicious when talking about their partner (especially if they are newer), then they might think the best way to avoid issues is to avoid talking about their partner at all. 300+ posts of content without one mention of Otolia's name? Sketchy stuff right there. It would make sense that noragarscum would be forced to post as Otolia's lynch was almost gauranteed for a bus attempt.

OK. Out of curiosity, I went and looked to see how many time CaptainCuddles mentioned Otolia's name (or Lord of Graves). The answer is exactly once. (Note that Otolia had already been lynched by the time Morthas came on board).

All right, that doesn't give me the confidence that frostbite is an obvious town but whatever works for you guys (obvious town is more of an exaggeration btw).

I still don't like how Otolia hasn't posted his reads on people like I believe TS has asked to before. LoG replaced out when he was starting to get some attention from people so that gives me some suspicion towards Otolia as well. Definitely suspicion on Otolia, but I'm not pushing for anyone's lynch (Otolia, Frost, and Espe) until they post a bit more.

So the only time CC mentions Otolia, he's "bussing" him, but not willing to push toward a lynch. Why do you see my "bussing" with pushing toward a lynch as more suspicious that CC's "bussing" without trying to lynch?

CC was V/LA when the case on Otolia gained the most momentum. I'm not going to consider his V/LA scummy. He started talking about Otolia's potential scumminess as the case was being built originally, nearly 100 real posts before you did.

Whether or not your posts are bussing depends largely on when you jump on the wagon and how you talk about the partner you're bussing.

Bussing is generally done mid-late in the wagon (you were the L-1 vote, before I unvoted and did a little scum hunting on Forest). Bussing generally takes the form of "I'm not 100% sure, but I'm willing to vote." Scum typically wants to keep the possibility alive of the wagon losing momentum, even if it's very unlikely. This is basically what you did. You put your vote on Otolia without stating (or restating, I guess) the reasoning behind it. This can allow the momentum to die down if people forget why Otolia seemed scummy in the first place.

Bussing is almost never done early in the wagon, since it casts extra suspicion on the scum partner when the wagon isn't huge yet. It's better to hope the wagon never takes off at an early time. Otolia was at L-3 when CC commented on how he seemed scummy. A non-bussing post typically takes the form of "This user is scummy because _____. I am suspicious of him. He is a good candidate for a lynch," even if no vote is given. The more "sure" statements regarding suspicious activity helps the wagon gain momentum, something scum would definitely not want, especially early on in a wagon.

CC's post just simply doesn't seem like bussing.

[gbevilchaos]

To try to keep replies to manageable size, and to keep the qoute boxes from getting too complex to follow, I'll make a separate post for each point.

Scum skimming detected. Easy town cred attempt detected.

FoS

: noragar

What is scum skimming? It wasn't in the glossary and I can't really respond to the accusation without knowing what it is.

As far as easy town cred, I assume you mean answering someone's question about what abbreviations meant? Really??? That's scummy??? Why single me out to FoS instead of also FoS'ing Twisted who said almost the exact same thing at the exact same time?

Response of emotion to early pressure. This is scummy. He does give logic to defend his post later, though (not bothering to quote it, but it's ISO #9). As I noted at the time he made this post, trying to deflect suspicion onto TS for no reason is scummy.

As I said in ISO #10, I never tried to deflect any suspicion onto TS. My entire argument was that what TS and I did was not scummy in the least. The purpose of my questioning was to get chkflip to reply with his reasons for seeing two players do the same thing at the same time and he says one is scummy, but not the other. As he never game a satisfactory answer, this was one of the reasons in my case against chkflip.

Your post took the form of "Why didn't you vote TS?" instead of "Why did you vote for me?" I'm going based off of what you wrote, not what you meant.

I'm not saying you couldn't have meant exactly what you say you did, but you seemed to be attempting to deflect blame onto TS. That's how it seemed to me when you brought up his name as doing something that chkflip considered scummy.

[gbevilchaos]

Vote: Morthas

[gbevilchaos]

Good game everyone! If Otolia is still lurking around these parts, sorry I bussed you so hard. LoG was giving off scum tells left and right, so I tried to distance myself from him throughout the day.

[gbevilchaos]

I unvoted for quick town cred by pressuring Forest, who had never had a vote on her since the RVS. It sounded like a good plan at the time, but I probably could have cruised by without it. I figured that my urging her to hammer and my quick re-vote made up for it.

Yeah, I don't know why I tried for a N1 kill of TS. I was trying to guess at who could be the doc, and I guessed TS (can't remember why, I think I was using some wiki doc tells as my reasoning). It was stupid of me, and I only realized that after the successful protect by Muffin.

[gbevilchaos]

TRIPLE POST !

Why do you think I'm smug ? I really decided to get lynched, I posted a town case against you and a rage post for chkflip. So yeah, what I wanted to say is that would have I been town, it would have been almost the same defense. Except for the LoG part (which I din't read and that was a mistake) It's the town fault not to have look into the incentives I had to force a bus over me, I was over the hump when I came into the thread with the 3rd vote being a bus. That was a 'let me bus you' sign, and I acted upon it.

A little bit to directive and enthusiast as IC but I guess your are not that type of player so. Maybe less walls too. It isn't really helpful to newbies.

And you shouldn't have been targeted D1 because you were protown : you put your life on the line. A doc would have protected you, at least from a scum PoV.

That, and newbies tend to kill IC because they think the experienced players would out them. I know as doc, I would protect IC on day one (making my decision to try for your kill on N1 even worse, lol)

[gbevilchaos]

gb, you gave yourself away a bit towards the end. Were i in lylo I probably would have started pressuring you. Not sure if i would have voted you but I definitely would have pressured you.

Could you explain this a bit more (i.e. quote a post or two)? Trying to get better

[gbevilchaos]

lol - I wasn't beating myself up. I won, so obviously my gameplay wasn't bad at all. I always like to try to be the best though, at whatever I'm doing. If I gave off some scumtells that I was unaware of, then that means I still have things to learn.

Just because I played well enough to win and slip under the radar doesn't mean I know everything.

[gbevilchaos]

I saw some D2 crumbs from f_a that would have led me to a kill anyway. Her defense of chkflip with no backing argument was a massive cop tell, in my opinion.