Newbie 310: It's All Over -- WOO-HOO!

[gorckat]

unVote

, out of respect for theopor, since I have no idea (yet) what you did to provoke votes :p

I'll be skimming things today and tonight and will get up to speed as quickly as possible.

[gorckat]

Thank you

I just printed out all 50 pages of this thread so I should be good to go on catching up tonight. I find it easier to flip real pages than scrolling around and hopping from tab to tab.

Plus I can use my highlighter and make nifty charts and stuff

[gorckat]

Just checking in- I had to take my wife to the ER with some hideous stomach flu late Saturday, and as she was getting out of there Sunday evening, I went down myself. I think the worst is over, but I feel as if I've been beaten with an aluminum baseball bat.

I do have my printout of the game, and had gotten halfway through it (damn Seol and VR for having a logic debate that I had to take in slowly :p) when things went sour here. I am going to get through it today...I hope to post something substantial this evening.

[gorckat]

Fircoal is definitely not scum.

I'm reasonably certain neither Avinyl, theopor or you are scum.

These posts are from the 19th and within ~30 minutes of each other. It was the day you were posting emotionally (sympathy plays some called them), if I recall my reading correctly.

I'm curious how you can state with absolute certainty Fircoal is not scum. Why did you fall back to 'reasonably certain'?

It might be weak a weak tell, but the only two people who can say that someone is definitely not scum are the scum and it was during a period when you admitted to posting off the cuff (post 137) so I feel it is more likely to mean something.

vote: VitaminR

[gorckat]

Yeah, giving no justification and stating with certainty that people are not scum is useful for scum. Never mind the fact that I've severely restricted my ability to get people lynched. I have forced myself to pressure either you or Seol. As scum, you need two lynches to win. That means I have no leeway anywhere, if I'm scum.

Also, why would I draw needless amounts of attention to myself stating things like that with certainty? I've received two or three votes for my certainty by now.

What I'm saying is that you

slipped

. You didn't do it because it helped you. You did it because you were posting "off the cuff" and frequently.

Maybe I'm being snowed by Seol's side of things, but the following also warranted an asterix on my printout:

VitaminR wrote:
As for the Azkar wagon, Seol didn't comment on it as it was going on. He attacked me when it was winding down.

VitaminR wrote:
Azkar-Thesp: Thesp essentially just waved away the Fircoal-Azkar thing, commenting on it afterwards. If they were scumbuddies, he would not dismiss a case that was that prominent so easily. If Azkar turns up scum, it is too damning a mark on his record. He's too experienced a player to make that kind of mistake.

I'm not seeing the difference. I ignored the wagon (along with the rest of the game - not that that's justifiable, just trying to put it in context), which therefore links me and Azkar. Thesp, who actually was here, was ignoring the wagon, and it's a sign they're not linked... except that if Azkar is scum, it's a black mark against Thesp (i.e., it's a sign they're linked... if it suits you).

You're taking the same behaviour and saying it means X in one case and not-X in another. Isn't this just a case of you interpreting the evidence in whatever manner is most convenient for you?

(Emphasis mine)

I agree with the bolded part.

[gorckat]

@VR: You are correct, I did miss your defense to Seol's accusation; I believe you actually made a post or two before responding to it so I missed it in making my post. My apologies.

@theopor: I came in with a very open mind, but VR and Seol stuck out to me based on their prolific posting. VR seemed to be bulldogging Seol unfairly and I felt his slip on Fircoal was telling.

I'll see if I can get some opinnions about the others up, especially Seol, since it seems to be a VR/Seol split.

And if I mangle anyone's names or abbreviate them unconventionally, I'm sorry. I like to type them as I would say them (Hi, Firc! Hi, Avi! :p)

[gorckat]

Oops! That @theopor was s'posed to be Thesp!

[gorckat]

(Finally! I started this last night, but knocked myself out with a couple nightime Sudafeds, and luckily my wife never closed the browser )

I guess it was for theopor

and

Thesp :p Reading is tech!

RE: Seol

I reread his posts and don't see him as anything other than helpful. I agree with the machine-like assessment of him. He just seems to grind away. I'm not sure if I agree with his views on theopor, so I read his posts next.

RE: theopor

In total, I think his 'sympathy' posts were genuine. He was a bit loose in the early game, 'fessed up to it and has posted pretty tightly. He's examing Fircoal's posts and solciiting other views- he's balanced. Whatever nerves he had he's worked out.

RE: Fircoal

He seems to be seeking out the right person to hang his hat on. He's got a few people down at varying degrees of trustworthiness and others he speculates on their possible scum pairs. To me, asking for other opinions isn't suspect in and of itself. But many of his posts are just a solicitation for an opinion or a brief statement of suspicion.

On the 19th his votes scatter a bit- he unvotes Theopor and FoSes VR, votes Seol and then unvotes Seol, all within ~24 hours.

Every post I believe who ever posted last.

Then append to every post in the thread a quick:

I'm innocent!

It could just be a convenient out to vote with a lynch the next time someone's at -1.

[gorckat]

Lemme see if I can squeeze out views on the others, real quick:

RE: Thesp

Seems pretty even-keeled. Not an enormous amount of posts, but pretty consistent with Fircoal and theopor suspicions.

RE:Avinyl

With connection troubles, I think he deserves a chance to catch-up. He did label Fircoal as suspicious early on and cleared him without much explanation, but I'm not sure how to view that since there's not much context.

RE: MeMe

Hasn't added much of anything, other than vote tallies and pointing out I replaced Azkar

I'll give my scum list in order to keep up with the Joneses

Most Scummy

VR
Firc (top 2 pretty even)
Avinyl (only because of the lack of context for clearing Firc)
Seol
Thesp
theopor

Least Scummy

[gorckat]

It was something I read in the wiki under Finding Mafia.

Now it seems the link has changed and I can't point anyone to it It was in the strategy articles, if anyone can find it.

[gorckat]

Basically it was referring to someone as a townie without saying "if".

[gorckat]

Yeah, I've read that article. That refers to a slip, though. Jeep wasn't referring to something intentional. Nowhere did I intend to call Fircoal anything but a pro-town player.

Also, I'd still like to know what purpose my slip served, according to you.

In my mind, a slip is unintentional. You do not intend to do it. You "slip". I know no other way to say it. Based on how

I

remembered the article on tells, referring to someone as town so concretely was a tell (implying absolute knowledge of someone's innocence).

Apparently, its value is actually pretty low and it wasn't written to cover what I thought it did.

unVote

[gorckat]

@theopor: What earlier events do you want me to comment on? Replacing into the game has been a little trickier than I expected. I thought the biggest things were the wagon on you and the VR/Seol debate. I did not think you're 'sympathy' post was damning and actually thought it made a case for you being town (which I stated earlier).

[gorckat]

I guess I wanted you to throw around a few more suggestions other than calling out Vitamin. No harm in commenting on everything, what do you think of the fact I was on 3 votes for over a week anything in it?

Avinyl you still there, I'm waiting for something worthwhile from you.

Being at -1 for a week....you're lucky I left that last line of your quote there because I think that's why you're still around. Avinyl has posted very little and nothing during that week.

I didn't want to put the last vote on you, not because it would seem suspicious, but because i don't want this day to end too soon.

I think that line was dragged over the coals when it was said. I just don't like how it sounds...like avoiding

suspicion

is more important than getting somebody that several people have their eyes on. It doesn't matter if the day ends page one if scum is lynched and everyone was in agreement on it.

Seol stated he didn't vote you because it would've been lynch, and he kept the pressure on as soon as it wasn't (when Fircoal unvoted). That could be seen hoping Fircoal would hop back on.

I think the asking for a claim was alright- there had been 5 people willing to vote you at that point.

Back to Avinyl for a sec- I think this might have been looked at as well:

I know i don't post very much, i read the game but i just can't come up with anything to say. As i have said before, i suspect theodor_COD and VitaminR. This is mostly based on feeling, and now theodor_COD doesn't feel as much scummy as VitaminR.

A twist on an old joke- 1 out of every three people are scummy...look left, look right...if you didn't see a scummy person it's you

Just flat out- we need to hear more from you, Avinyl. You've got less than one post per page in a 13 page game.

[gorckat]

Fircoal was up on my list because I'd also seen him as floating suspicions around and leaving himself an expansive out with his "I believe whoever posted last".

VR (and others, I suppose) corrected me on my application of the "townie without saying if" tell. The next logical step is for me to, as I'm told they say in Norway, put my face in the butter.

vote:Fircoal

[gorckat]

I hadn't read Fircoal's "I believe" statement as being specific to the VR/Seol debate. It was in response to a post by theopor questioning his varying suspicions (post 233).

My views on the VR/Seol debate were that VR went after Seol a bit more than was warranted. Seol modified his views (while remaining unsatisfied), but VR wasn't happy with how modified his views and it ended as a stalemate, I suppose. I felt VR was the aggressor in the debate, which may be coming off as a "one-sided" view.

I did cut/paste a couple of things Seol said that I thought had been unanswered and proved something, but VR pointed me to his defenses. I never elaborated on my end point thoughts (above), however.

[gorckat]

Is anyone in a game that Seol has posted in during th elast week? I'm in another game with him that he hasn't posted in for a week or so, at least. What about avinyl?

I was about to say that theopor was looking like another 'hat-hanger' for the way he'll lynch anyone, but I realized he listed everyone

Which also made me realize that Fircoal and Seol (although absent) have their votes sitting on him. They are the only two who haven't cleared theopor (or at least have him down as strongly suspect), right?

They both are probably our best bets. I'm gonna go back and re-read Fircoal's vote history to see if it makes sense (an alignment with Seol). I'll try to post again shortly.

[gorckat]

Eh- I don't think there's any link between Fircoal and Seol (based on my thinking last post, at any rate). Fircoal was actually voting Seol at one point and during that run Seol was either at -1 or would have been if VR had flipped his vote (I finished looking just a second ago, but dismissed the link and forgot the exact timing oh...immediately ) and that was around the time VR started looking at Seol.

[gorckat]

They both are probably our best bets. I'm gonna go back and re-read Fircoal's vote history to see if it makes sense (an alignment with Seol). I'll try to post again shortly.

WAit a minute didn't you review my posts? Also you're already voting me, wouldn't that be a point that you already would of looked over.

The post you quoted was looking at you and Seol as a pair, something that was fairly common earlier in the game (before I started). I don't think that's the case based on just your votes- Seol was either at -1 or would have been with your vote. That just seems to risky.

My vote is on you based on your actions alone.

[gorckat]

Interesting. I expected to find a guilty on VR Night 2 after learning that Fircoal is guilty (given how he'd been convinced of Firc's innocence earlier)...time to reread and see who to look at next (assuming I don't get the axe myself Night 2)

vote:Fircoal

[gorckat]

Yes- sorry if I wasn't clear enough.

[gorckat]

Indeed, welcome Mastermind- I didn't even read that Seol was replaced That has got to be a hard Day One to slog through (I know it was for me).

I guess Fircoal's response is to be expected...

[gorckat]

@theopor: Well there's two Even after they take me down, the town will win Day 3.

Convenient how the person who posted the least can swoop in and try to rescue his scumbuddy with a bogus claim.

@Fircoal: You offed VR because he defended you and suspected me. What better way to make me look bad and yourself like a saint?

[gorckat]

I think it has to do with odds...either a thread in Mafia Discussion or another wiki article I can't find (until I go back to VR's post with the link) had something about towns being better off No Lynching when an even number of people are alive- it somehow makes it easier to get scum the next day.

In this case, with two claimed cops and the town not at lynch or lose, I think we also would have the time for a No Lynch to see what happens tonight and still win tomorrow and the next day.

That said, Fircoal or Aviynl are both guilty.

[gorckat]

Hmm...I could have sworn VR linked me to the old wiki page with its articles...it wasn't Thesp and I don't think Seol was posting around then...who had the link?

[gorckat]

I argee with Theo, Gorckat wasn't every helpful, he kept on the same point.

That's just false.

I came in thinking VR had slipped by confrming you as a townie. During that time, I also laid out my views on everyone else. After being (rightly, we now know) convinced that VR had not made a mistake, I went to the next most suspicous person on my list: you.

Many times you did nothing more than fish for suspicions. You hopped you vote around. Your "I believe whoever posted last" was not in response to a question about VR/Seol (as you tried to frame it most recently) but to theopor's pushing you on fishing around.

I have shifted and endeavored to explore all angles. I also drew a possible (also now known to be) false link between you and Seol and debunked it myself. I have not "kept on the same point". I have kept on consistent points, unlike yourself.

Who is right = Who is the right cop of me and Gorckat.

I know

I

am. Do you have some doubts?

[gorckat]

I've done more than you have Gcorkat.

Well, yeah- the game was on for a month before I started. In that time you hunted for more places to hang a hat than a saloon full of cowboys.

Gorckat, I think you've pretty much already said this, but could you repeat your explanation of why you chose to investigate Fircoal last night?

Aside from the fishing, vote hopping and general bad vibe I had- Thesp, theopor and I were considering a lynch on him. If he wasn't scum, I wanted to steer what I felt would be a likely lynch away from him.

@Thesp- I think I understand what you're saying. But if we No Lynch, Firc and Avi can target you, theopor or MoS and have avi "confirm" guilty on me or whoever they want my partner to be...

[gorckat]

I'll trust Thesp knows what he's doing...I'm afraid we're gonna end up in a crap shoot hoping whoever doesn't get killed or "investigated" by Avi can figure out on whom to lay the winning vote...

unvote

vote:NoLynch

[gorckat]

vote: Fircoal

I could vote either Fircoal or Avi...I got the guilty on Fircoal so that's where I'll go. Avi tried to counterclaim me, so there was no need to investigate last night at all, really, but I had loooked at Thesp and got (obviously) innocent.

MoS, theopor- please take your time. I have no doubt Fircoal and Avi want to bus me ASAP- they tried to yesterday.

[gorckat]

If I was scum, don't you think I would have cleared my partner (the way Avi "cleared" you) to make it easier for theopor to make up his mind?

[gorckat]

@Firc and theopor (well, mostly theopor):

If

I was scum, I would have a partner. If I was scum claiming cop and "found" a guilty one night, wouldn't it make sense for me to clear my partner the next? Especially in this situation?

I'm

not

scum. Firc and Avi are.

And I addressed theopor because he was here. Had MoS been posting at the time, I would have addressed him.

[gorckat]

IT would make some sense, but it makes more sense for scum to claim that they clear the dead man. And of course, you knew who was going to die.

Why? If scum clears their partner, it makes it easier for the odd man out to make up his mind.

Avi has done a very good scum job of "finding innocent" on you and then alleging MoS is my partner.

Firc and Avi are guilty. Look at the way Firc fished day one and Avi said nothing until it was time for him to save his partner.

@theopor and MoS: Its up to you guys to win the game for the town now.

[gorckat]

Gorckat, can you explain that statement? I don't see how your little "joke" was relevant to what you quoted from Avinyl.

Also, can you explain why, out of all the posts you've made in this thread, you've only mentioned Avinyl twice? It's almost as if you're avoiding talking about him.

Sure- I forget who told the original joke (Steve Martin, maybe?) but it was bascially one out of every three people are ugly- look at the person to your left and the one to your right- if you don't see an ugly person, it's you!

Avi was saying no one seemed really scummy and "...i just can't come up with anything to say." I tried to prod him into opening up- he really shouldn't have had to "come up" with anything if he had nothing to hide. If he couldn't "come up" with anything, maybe he was the scum- which has, in fact, proved true.

As far as mentioning him, I often abbreviate names, so if you CTRL+F my posts for Avi and and not Avinyl, you'll see I've actually talked about him quite a lot the last two game days. Day 1 he had virtually nothing to comment on, so saying I avoided him is overlooking that he avoided us.

[gorckat]

Bah.

[gorckat]

Damn- good game folks. I had a blast with the cop claim gambit

[gorckat]

It was MoS's idea for the cop claim. I have to be honest- my heart was pounding when I made the claim and for several posts thereafter I got a little bit of a rush keeping it up. I definetly got a little sloppy when talking about clearing my partner to make it easier for theopor, but its a good lesson learned for the next time I falsely claim

Oh- and theopor- was your heart, head or gut telling you to vote me? I remember you said something to the effect of your heart, head and gut each telling you something different and I was wondering where I fell in all that.

I really wanted to (ab)use the instinct to trust someone that you've already helped before, and I was really trying to find a way to say that theopor's suspicions Day One helped me decided to investigate Fircoal without seeming too heavy-handed.

And also apologies Avinyl- I deliberately misspelled your name in one of my posts trying to get a rise out of you (like that time you pointed out 6 errors earlier in the game). I think you may have done it right back at me though