Newbie Game #543 - Foul Deeds in Isafin (flawless town win)

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Wed Jan 09, 2008 5:46 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

/confirmerage

sup n00Bs. How many games has everyone been in?
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Post Post #9 (isolation #1) » Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:38 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

I'm basically the best player here.

don't listen to anyone else.

=D

cmon flay, i wanna start voting.
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Post Post #12 (isolation #2) » Thu Jan 10, 2008 8:27 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

Mr. Flay wrote:
Rosso Carne wrote:I'm basically the best player here.
...
cmon flay, i wanna start voting.
If you're so good, how come you didn't notice that we're still waiting on one player to confirm? :D
I did notice, and im blaming it on you. :roll:

and cioly, thats why its a n00B game :lol:
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Post Post #34 (isolation #3) » Sun Jan 13, 2008 2:52 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

don't like the quick voting and fossing me, but thats cool. no one better throw the 3rd vote on me or i swear ill bear down on you like no tommorow.

I have to agree with spurg on this one, ALVIN why are you so excited about me being lynched? quicklynching never helps the town.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #4) » Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:19 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

alvinz95 wrote:Now rosso carne is
LYNCHED
!
seems pretty damn excited to me.
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Post Post #48 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:27 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

cioly wrote:so u say alvinz is suspicious:> nice...because he is entusiasthic...maybe he has smth personal with u.....=))ah let's vote him=)) neeh...u called us n00bs and u still play superior...even trying to threaten...so....
vote:rosso carne
so you're scum with him?
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Post Post #49 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:34 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

cioly wrote:i always hate day one...i never have aything really worthy or evidence-based to say...so i just "bla bla"
if theres anything that's painfully obvious about mafia, its that you've gotta go day 1 based on what people say, and that my good madamme is not helpful to the town.

C9 {and E7 obviously} are won and lost in day 1. If the town plays well then its smooth sailing from there, even with a mislynch on day 1.

I just don't like the attitude of purposefully laxing on the reading of other players' posts. I said he was enthusiastic about my being lynched, which NO ONE SHOULD BE UNLESS YOU WERE GOING FOR A QUICKLYNCH!!!

Who goes for quicklynched?

SCUM!!!


So where you get off saying I threaten you and look down on n00Bs I have no idea. Just to clear one thing, I wouldnt be here if i didn't care about n00Bs, so if you really take offense to anything I say, then I'm sorry, but this is a n00B game and I never meant durogatory meaning.

And if youre doing it to paint me as a bully, well then prepare for me to drop all bounds, because only a scum would do something like that.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:35 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

Johoohno wrote:@ Spurgistan: A vote count should be unnecessary. But still, everyone seems a bit confused (even you when you in post 42 are blaming cioly for putting a player on L-1, when she had her vote on Rosso, then unvoted, and then voting for him again, which puts him on L-2).

I agree that the first day is a tricky one. In my last game the scums were keeping really low profile and not contributing much during day one. That might be a scumtell, though a weak one. Therefore I would like to hear more from
James Rogers
.
calling out people for lurking is not contributing.
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Post Post #52 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 15, 2008 2:45 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

spurgistan wrote:Nice triple, there, Rosso. Definitely agreeing with what you say in all of these, but I kind of wanted to post something in the same spirit, mostly with regards to cioly right now, but this is something I see in a lot of these newbie games, and even something some vets do.

Please, when you're playing in forum Mafia games, put your posts in plain English. It really is worth the extra 12 seconds to make a "somth" into a "something" to make it more readable to the rest of us. Because (while I hate to speak for everybody) I like reading these posts in English, the language we all are at least familiar with. When I see something that I don't immediately recognize as English, I get a bit annoyed. And when you annoy me, I'm likely to vote you whether I really think you're that scummy or not. So, please, for my sake, you don't really need to worry about proper syntax and all that (although I do) but try to make what you post approximate actual English. Thanks.
WHEEE!

I do type fast and just mess up typing sometimes, so sorry.
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Post Post #59 (isolation #9) » Wed Jan 16, 2008 12:44 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

alvinz95 wrote:Well, in the games i play, usually the "quiet" ones are the mafia....
in the games i play, usually the scummy people are mafia.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #10) » Wed Jan 16, 2008 12:45 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

Johoohno wrote:@ alvinz95: FOS is a way to show that you are suspicious of someone. It's not a vote, but a way to show that they are on your radar. On the question of how long a day is, I'd say that depends. It'll last until one person has got four votes on him/her.

@ Rosso Carne: These following two statements by you are in conflict as I see it (therefore I
FOS: Rosso Carne
):
Rosso Carne (post 49) wrote:if theres anything that's painfully obvious about mafia, its that you've gotta go day 1 based on what people say
Rosso Carne wrote:
Johoohno wrote:@ Spurgistan: A vote count should be unnecessary. But still, everyone seems a bit confused (even you when you in post 42 are blaming cioly for putting a player on L-1, when she had her vote on Rosso, then unvoted, and then voting for him again, which puts him on L-2).

I agree that the first day is a tricky one. In my last game the scums were keeping really low profile and not contributing much during day one. That might be a scumtell, though a weak one. Therefore I would like to hear more from
James Rogers
.
calling out people for lurking is not contributing.
I'll also
Vote: James Rogers
. My hope is still for him to get involved in the game.
O_o

quoi?

yes, theres no hard facts to go on D1. thats obvious.

and i called out someone for lurking in plain sight.

Those two statements have absolutely NOTHING to do with one another.
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Post Post #61 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 16, 2008 12:45 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

James Rogers wrote:Vote: alvinz95

Even if getting excited about the quick lynch was an innocent mistake, a loose cannon can be dangerous to everyone.

A side note: maybe we can all un-vote me now that I'm here?
bold your votes damnit.
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Post Post #67 (isolation #12) » Thu Jan 17, 2008 4:28 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

ill be happy with a cioly lynch by page 6.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #13) » Thu Jan 17, 2008 2:22 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

jumping right in front of alvinz after scummy actions is pretty good id say
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Post Post #71 (isolation #14) » Thu Jan 17, 2008 2:42 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

you. =D

no but seriously, scummy is just a term for "mafia like" or "un-townly"
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Post Post #74 (isolation #15) » Fri Jan 18, 2008 5:38 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

alvinz95 wrote:Feel free to though cause i can't stop ya.
just a hint, guilt-tripping and wanting to make people sorry does not qualify as defending yourself.

If i lynch a scummy person i will not be sorry.
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Post Post #76 (isolation #16) » Fri Jan 18, 2008 9:26 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

cuz youre scummy, but i never said you were scum.

scum is jumping out to protect scummy people, and after i see cioly's role, ill deduce more, but thats day 2.

right now, we need to focus on lynching cioly.
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Post Post #79 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 19, 2008 4:57 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

scum would cower at that, but im not laying off an attack just because you threaten to vote for me.

Theres only one person in this game that has any clue without a doubt who is what role, and even that person hasn't had a night to use it.
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Post Post #87 (isolation #18) » Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:21 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

James Rogers wrote:been trying to do this for days now...stupid hosting service is always down!

Vote: alvinz95
You've been acting very scummy and I'm ready to find out exactly why.

FoS: cioly, Rosso Carne - you guys are being aggressive without cause. Once the first lynch is completed we'll know why...
I DO NOT like posts like this.

Sifting into the background is the worst possible thing a townie can EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER do, and in a newbie game like this, any other role too. It just hurts the town, and it pays to be aggressive unless youre scum. I have absolutely no problem drawing attention to myself, and its the people that dont that scare the shit out of me.

Interview post coming tuesday.
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Post Post #90 (isolation #19) » Sun Jan 20, 2008 4:37 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

ARE YOU AN IDIOT!??

first off, when i see cioly's role is when cioly is lynched. then we see the role. dont be a douche talking about roles. when power roles want to claim, then they claim, so dont go role fishing. its untownly, and should never be done. id be willing to get behind a oierw wagon for that.

and i meant "the cop" which i dont know who is and as of yet do not want to know.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #20) » Wed Jan 23, 2008 3:14 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

sorry, class killed me this week thus far. busy day today and tommorow, but friday afternoon i should have some quiet time.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #21) » Wed Jan 23, 2008 3:16 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

alvinz95 wrote:
Rosso Carne wrote:ARE YOU AN IDIOT!??

first off, when i see cioly's role is when cioly is lynched. then we see the role. dont be a douche talking about roles. when power roles want to claim, then they claim, so dont go role fishing. its untownly, and should never be done. id be willing to get behind a oierw wagon for that.

and i meant "the cop" which i dont know who is and as of yet do not want to know.
Why wouldn't you want to know who the cop is. Then you would know that that person is right.
If we wanted to know that, the cop would claim right away.

There has been no cop claim {a VERY good thing}

You RE-E-E-E-E-ally need to remember scum have a kill and that they will kill a claimed cop faster than anything.

Although this setup is kind of broken I think {which is why i loathe it so much, but i live} since a cop claim and secret doc is almost guaranteed win, but its risky obviously.

So I am completely willing to get behind an oiew lynch if I can HAMMAH!
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Post Post #102 (isolation #22) » Sat Jan 26, 2008 7:46 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

i have a basketball game tonight (pitt v rutgers at 6 on ESPN classic watch it if you can plz) but im going to do a thourough reread afterwards and itll clear a lot up.
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Post Post #106 (isolation #23) » Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:46 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

pep band.

Again, so sorry abuot not contirbuting. swamped by a paper tonight but for serious tommorow will be a log on and get off day for mafia.
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Post Post #112 (isolation #24) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:55 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

ok here's the first of 6-8 posts I hope to get accomplished today.

A ** at the beginning of a line exacts a specific point I would like an answer to.

So yadda yadda welcom to mafia.

GOOD MORNING ALVINZ!
alvinz95 wrote:Now rosso carne is
LYNCHED
!
This post was extremely overeager. No one misreads a vote count that much and sounds that excited about it unless theyre absolutely eager for someone to be lynched. With the aqgressive people {me} playing, theres always the tendancy toward faster days because discussion always comes up, butt his is ridiculous.
al wrote:Woah, woah woah. I never said that i was eager to lynch.... Jumping to conclusions eh?
No, I'm not jumping, but at this point all id heard are "WHEE YOURE LYNCHED" and the exact opposite to how you really felt in this post.

**Gonna have to ask that you explain your thoughts at this point, cuz you were absolutely overeager.

Now I did let up, only because cioly had added my L-1 vote at this point, but either way with gems like
al wrote:I have no strategies (if there are any) in mafia, since i've only played at a party about 5 times...
How can't I?

So going through page three, its simple spritz and spratz from you al, asking questions, not really putting much on the table, although one thing did strike me.
al wrote: Well, in the games i play, usually the "quiet" ones are the mafia....
Well who in this game has been more vocal than me, and yet this whole time your vote has been on me. This line of reasoning really makes no sense.

**So, why the hell was your vote on me this entire time, if the quiet ones are usually mafia.

**Also, at this time, why in the hell did yuo vote for james. You provided no rationale except for "following your own advice"

James at this point wasnt contributing all that much, but in your attack, you were jumping right on a fresh wagon, dont liket hat.
al wrote:You'll be very sorry if you do lynch me, just sayin.

Feel free to though cause i can't stop ya.
NOT a defense.
al wrote:If you think i'm mafia, then just vote, don't just kill time using the FOS pretending you're trying to rid "scummy" people when you are mafia. If you were REALLY a townsperson then you would've voted for me already. Confused

So....

Unvote: Vote: Rosso Carne
At this point I think yuore scummy, but I'm sure cioly is scum, and since I dont have 2 votes, thats tommorow's job.

And again, NOT a defense. OMGUSing is not defending yourself, defending yourself is.

The remainder of your posts are simply spritz, and I really havent seen you contribute anything of real substance.
**do you plan on contributing or just flopping onto the next good wagon that comes up.

Youre basically lurking in plain sight, not a good tactic, and one that is very very unhelpful to the town.
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Post Post #113 (isolation #25) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:56 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

class now, more posts tonight.

Pitt vs Villanova is tonight on ESPNU. I'll be there, so watch it.
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Post Post #120 (isolation #26) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:50 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

alvinz95 wrote:Rosso Carne: I didn't say this before, but I thought you were lynch because i didn't know what FOS meant and thought it was a vote. Thats why. I don't see how that is good evidence to support the accusation, just a misconception. And, this IS a newbie game, so most of my stuff is probably the suckiest defence, and you don't have to shove my words back in my face.

Johoohno:

Don't have one at the moment.

But the reason why i suspect Rosso of being scum is because he comes out thinking he can "hammah" people easily and take control of the game (scummy), defends himself by saying how stupid the post was, seems to be taking tiny details that i see of no importance of (could be untrue), and thats about it. Sorry its a bit harsh, but i know i over exaggerated. Now rosso will probably point out the stupid stuff in this post. Don't flame my poor accusation.

Another might be skitzer: spurgistan voted for me and just seems weird.
fuck, im proud, you contributed, and learing to do that {and to put up with criticism from people like me} are what newbie games are all about.

In other news, im going to bed. look for me tommorow night.
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Post Post #132 (isolation #27) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 3:29 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

ok,for the record.

if you are town, you had better be aggressive. sitting around singing kumbayah all day get you nowhere. scum win if the townies are not aggressive, cuz they can slip right into the background and be forgotten.

so if youre town and not acting agressive, then you had better tune your mafia skills, because theres no other way to win. you cant depend on your fellow townies to draw out the scum fro you, youve got to do it yourself. agression is a town action, and sitting around being a douchebag is not.
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Post Post #134 (isolation #28) » Fri Feb 01, 2008 6:11 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

ok.

wrong.

a townie must be ABSOLUTELY obtrusive, in your sense of the word. it's not actually obtrusive, since thats the point of being a townie, but you get what i mean.

If a townie gets themselves nightkilled, good for them. That means they did a great job. Scum saw them as too good of a threat.

I love being nightkilled, it means i did a good job in the game.

In a setup like this, the scum honestly should go for the less aggressive ones in order to hit power roles that might not want to come into the limelight.

{nota bene, i never care about power roles, i want to win, so id be a scumhunter no matter my role}

Being a townie is simple, its finding scum that's hard.
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Post Post #137 (isolation #29) » Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:40 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

well i simply dont believe in that article.

and yeah, im really not trying to shine, im putting my skill and experience at work so that you n00Bz can get accustomed to the game. I'm not shining, im simply the one putting the most forward.

You need to think. if no townies are aggressive, the scum are not being forced out. then its down to (with great variance, but the average works out well) to be a random simulation. Scum win that a great majority of the time. Just because a scum tends to kill an aggressive townie (because it forces them to extract information, thus giving them away {so yes, aggression=skill}) doesnt meant that they have to kill an aggressive townie. A dead townie is useless, yes, but scum kill someone every night. Just because no townie was aggressive doesnt mean the scum cant kill anyone, and i think you have that very mistaken idea in your mind. there will be a useless townie in every new day because (mafia 101 again) SCUM KILL EVERY NIGHT!!!!

The townies objective is not to be useful by staying alive, it is to win the game by killing scum. being NKd by scared ass scum means they either suspect you of being a PR (shoudlnt happen usually, but does) or if youre the biggest threat to their existence. (yes WIFOM wars can easily be started over the NK, but when it comes down to it scum always want to kill who will help them the most).

So if you simply want to stay alive, good for you. I'd love to stay alive and continue scumhunting tommorow. But if im a big threat, i fully expect the scum to kick my ass tonight.

If the town loses my insight tommorow, thats cool as long as i killed a scum and got the conversation flowing for tommorow, because thats all you need. The town loses someones insight every day, so youve got to step up while you can, force the scum onto the cutting board and get their assinine shit into the limelight. Agression isnt simply a playstyle, its the playstyle that wins games.
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Post Post #138 (isolation #30) » Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:53 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

I'm going to do my nice nifty interro on jahoohno now.

again, specific points i need you to address are listed with a double star before them.

General comments first off. Bravo, your play has impressed me thus far, so hit me up in scumchat once in awhile.
Johoohno wrote:@ Spurgistan: A vote count should be unnecessary. But still, everyone seems a bit confused (even you when you in post 42 are blaming cioly for putting a player on L-1, when she had her vote on Rosso, then unvoted, and then voting for him again, which puts him on L-2).

I agree that the first day is a tricky one. In my last game the scums were keeping really low profile and not contributing much during day one. That might be a scumtell, though a weak one. Therefore I would like to hear more from
James Rogers
.
Great effing point, like ive been saying all game, if scum are allowed to blend in because other townies want to blend in, then its basically a toss up. scum need to be brought out into the limelight as much as possible, AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE!!!

And if scum dont die today, the information that pulling brings to day 2 is extremely valuable.

reading through the rest of what you wrote, its consistent attacking of lurkers and not really putting forth a vast amount of real information. so...

**Is a townie that brings info out of the scum a good townie?
**Has alvinz contributed nearly enough to even be considered a player in this game?
**If you could have a one shot dayvig kill right now that would end the day, who would you take the shot at?

Like i said, i respect what you have to say, but i really want some info extracted and not a simple attack on lurkers.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #31) » Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:24 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

j, i basically meant who you want lynched right now, not whether or not you would use it now.

basically if you had to end the day now by HAMMAH!ing anyone, who would it be?
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Post Post #156 (isolation #32) » Mon Feb 04, 2008 9:42 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

same
as
before.

inherently scum-only action = automatic lynch.

yet im being debated upon about the logistics.

dont attack because i found something absolutely scummy and attack it inherently. its because im so narrow minded on targets that im the best player ever. I found scum. the scum needs to be lynched. i will HAMMAH! thank you.

cioly needs to be lynched and cioly needs to be lynched fast.
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Post Post #163 (isolation #33) » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:17 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

id actually be happy with an alvinz lynch based on the fact that this is the worst case of lurking in plain sight ive ever seen.

ok not ever, max was far worse.

but ill lynch a non-contributor and then hit cioly tommorow.
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Post Post #165 (isolation #34) » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:37 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

mod
can i get a replacement on al for not contributing?

no, you may not


ok then, there goes my idea.

who should we ylnch then mizzy, havent heard a fucking lick from you besides baseless theory.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #35) » Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:18 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

skitzer wrote: BUT: Rosso Carne, if you are satisfied with a alvinz lynch, why are you not voting? Or is it that you want to be the one to quote on quote, HAMMAH?
yes

The penguin wants the HAMMAH!
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Post Post #186 (isolation #36) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:37 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

...

wow

i need a thourough reread now.
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Post Post #196 (isolation #37) » Fri Feb 08, 2008 4:11 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

i feel that I am happy with an alvinz lynch, and if alvinz turns up town, then cioly is the ylnch tommorow.

discuss.
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Post Post #200 (isolation #38) » Sat Feb 09, 2008 9:39 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

Johoohno wrote: and I'm all in favor of a majority decision).

Anyone got a better order (this would also be the time to confess that you haven't started/planned your player analysis - which I will take as a major scum tell).
uh, what?

all in favor of a majority decision?

*perks*
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Post Post #201 (isolation #39) » Sat Feb 09, 2008 9:39 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

Mizzy wrote:
Rosso Carne wrote:i feel that I am happy with an alvinz lynch, and if alvinz turns up town, then cioly is the ylnch tommorow.

discuss.
And if you're wrong on both counts, mafia win. Good job.
O_o

but im right though.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #40) » Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:06 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

*sits with HAMMAH! on hand*
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Post Post #226 (isolation #41) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:15 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

oierw:nothing

absolutely nothing has alvinz contributed to the game except "i dont konw what to do" and "you'll be sorry if you lynch me because im a townie"

these are the kinds of defenses that scum make cuz they dont have a real defense.


johoo:

id like cioly myself, but im happy either way. then i have a good opinion of who the cop should investigate (hint: the one that was not lynched) but its not my place to out or direct power roles.

failing that, my first instinct is skitzer, jsut by a bit of process of elimination, but i need a reread for that to be full

and yes i have a 24 hour policy in effect in the event of a 3rd vote going on alvinz.

and the penguin is hungry for HAMMAH!
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Post Post #253 (isolation #42) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:46 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

hmm, well i have a choice here.

ya know what, i need a bit to brood.

actually, ill leave al for tommorow and cioly can go today.

vote, cioly
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Post Post #264 (isolation #43) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:17 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

cop should never inv the scummiest, but instead who they get the worst read on, such as a lurker. if somone is scummy, you lynch them, not inv them.
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Post Post #276 (isolation #44) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:36 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

need to run some math on the game, but my suspiscion is that no lynch is the way to go.

give me a bit, and no one claim or vote please.
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Post Post #288 (isolation #45) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:00 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

Ok, I've run worst case scenario.

cop and doc both need to claim, it goes like this

Start:
D C T T T M R

Day 1:
D C T T T M
R


N1:
D C T T T(docced, NKd, inv'd) M {assuming worst case scenario)

So Day 2, with cop and doc claim, and assuming we lynch a townie:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed) T
T
T (confirmed) M
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Post Post #289 (isolation #46) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:08 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

EBWODP, Shit didnt finish, hit submit instead of preview.

Ok, I've run worst case scenario.

cop and doc both need to claim, it goes like this

Start:
D C T T T M R

Day 1:
D C T T T M
R


N1:
D C T T T(docced, NKd, inv'd, thus confirmed) M {assuming worst case scenario)

So Day 2, with cop and doc claim, and assuming we lynch a townie:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed) T
T
T (confirmed) M

Night 2, Mafia will be forced to kill doc:
D
C (docced) T (inv'd) T (confirmed) M

Then, whether or not the investigation is on a townie or the scum, town wins, as an inv on a townie means the other is scum.

This was run under worst case scenario, assuming the doc protection and cop inv night 1 went on the same person. If that is not the case, then there are more confirmed people. Note that the doc and cop must both claim to prevent cross confirmation and miffing up the scenario. also, the doc must ALWAYS protect the cop to prevent this from mucking up. Also, if more than one person claims a power role, we have found a scum and have enough lynches to blow it up.
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Post Post #290 (isolation #47) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:08 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

So with that, I call mass claim.
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Post Post #292 (isolation #48) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:36 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

no no, look at my scenario.

if we no lynch theres a chance for a scum win.

if we massclaim then lynch today, its guaranteed win.
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Post Post #294 (isolation #49) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:05 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

Counter scenario, int he event of a massclaim without lynching:

worst case scenario is this:

Day 1:
D C T T T M
R


Night 1:
D C T (NK'd, docced, inv'd, thus confirmed) T T M

Day 2 massclaim, NL:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T T M

Night 2:
D (NK'd
C (docced) T (confirmed) T (inv'd) T M

Day 3:
C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T (confirmed)
T
M

Night 3: cop dies

Day 4, scum dies, win, BUT

It could also have gone:

N1:
D (inv'd) C (docced, NKd) T T T M

D2 massclaim, NL:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed) T T T M

N2:
D (NKd)
C T (inv'd) T T M

D3:
C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T T M

Then its N3, cop dies, and its D4 with 3 townies and a scum, only one of which is confirmed. If we lynch today, we get around that.

If that happened and we lynch today:

N1:
D (inv'd) C (NK'd, docced) T T T M

D2 massclaim and lynch:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed)
T
T T M

N2:
D (NKd)
C (docced) T (inv'd) T M

D3 NL:
C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T M

N3 cop dies,

That leaves D4

T (confirmed) T M
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Post Post #295 (isolation #50) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:09 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

EBWODP Correction in large print

Counter scenario, int he event of a massclaim without lynching:

worst case scenario is this:

Day 1:
D C T T T M
R


Night 1:
D C T (NK'd, docced, inv'd, thus confirmed) T T M

Day 2 massclaim, NL:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T T M

Night 2:
D (NK'd
C (docced) T (confirmed) T (inv'd) T M

Day 3:
C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T (confirmed)
T
M

Night 3: cop dies

Day 4, scum dies, win, BUT

It could also have gone:

N1:
D (inv'd) C (docced, NKd) T T T M

D2 massclaim, NL:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed) T T T M

N2:
D (NKd)
C T (inv'd) T T M

D3:
C (confirmed) T (confirmed)
T
T M

Then its N3, cop dies, and its D4 with
2
townies and a scum, only one of which is confirmed. If we lynch today, we get around that.

If that happened and we lynch today:

N1:
D (inv'd) C (NK'd, docced) T T T M

D2 massclaim and lynch:
D (confirmed) C (confirmed)
T
T T M

N2:
D (NKd)
C (docced) T (inv'd) T M

D3 NL:
C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T M

N3 cop dies,

That leaves D4

T (confirmed) T M[/quote]
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Post Post #296 (isolation #51) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:12 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

The difference is in night 2. The cop is going to die either way in the worst case scenario, but in night 2, the probability of finding scum in a day 2 NL is only 1/3, which the probability of finding scum in a day 2 lynch is 1/2. Thus, the worst case endgame scenario is exactly the same, but the N2 scenario odds of the cop finding scum are 1.5 times as good.
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Post Post #298 (isolation #52) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:33 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

no

Theres ALWAYS a chance of an absolute miff up with that

Assume the cop inv'd the doc N1, then it wouldnt matter if the doc claims or not, the scum should {i use that loosely} kill the cop-confirmed person. if it so happens to have been the doc, the town is fucked.

N1 worst case crossfire confirmation:
D (inv'd) C (NK'd, docced) T T T M

D2 NL:
D (confirmed, whether or not he claims=target) C (confirmed) T T T M

N2:
D (NK'd)
C T (inv'd) T T M

D3:
C (confirmed) T (confirmed) T
T (lynch)


N3:
C (NK)
T (confirmed) T M

D4:
T (confirmed) T M


Exact same scenario with confirmed townie casting deciding vote, but N2 the cop still only has a 1/3 chance to hit scum. The best play is to narrow the chances for the cop to hit a townie to 1/2 on N2, since the worst case endgame is always the same.
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Post Post #300 (isolation #53) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:52 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

N1:
D (inv'd) C (NK'd docced) T T T M

D2 cop claims and doesnt reveal anything, NL:
D (not confirmed) C (confirmed) T T T M

N2, still a 1/4 chance that the random shot from the scum will kill the doc:
D (NK'd)
C T (inv'd) T T M

D3, cop is going to die N3 so he has to claim target:
C (confirmed) T (confimred) T
T (lynch)
M

N3:
C (NK'd)
T (confirmed) T M

D4:
T (confirmed) T M



HEY LOOK, SAME SITUATION WE WERE IN!!!!


Thing is, if the doc and cop cross-confirmed N1, then theres always a chance that the game will go to lylo by day 4. the difference is always going to be in night 2, where the odds are always giong to be 1/2 of hitting scum if we lynch today and always giong to be 1/3 if not. The doc always has that chance to die and I'm not betting a game on that.
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Post Post #301 (isolation #54) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:53 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

if you do in fact require more scenarios, they will have to wait as i am going to go work now. good day.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #55) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:28 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

exactly. if this is the case, there is always a chance that the game goes to LYLO by day 4, but again, if this is the case it can't be helped. However, if it is the case, we can cut the cops chances of hitting scum to 1/2 by massclaim then lynching anyone who claims townie, instead of no-lynching and leaving 3 unconfirmed townies (probability of hitting scum only 1/3). Either way, the best scenario is to massclaim now, lynch now. that way the cop gets one more investigation, there is one more confirmed townie, and cop has a good 1/2 chance of hitting scum N2.
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Post Post #309 (isolation #56) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:31 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

Mizzy wrote:
Rosso Carne wrote: Assume the cop inv'd the doc N1, then it wouldnt matter if the doc claims or not, the scum should {i use that loosely} kill the cop-confirmed person. if it so happens to have been the doc, the town is fucked.
Then why not just have the cop claim, and not give an investigation target unless they find a guilty? I'd rather go until we have a confirmed scum and then kill them.

Lynching today has a chance of putting us into lylo tomorrow. I don't want that option at all.
unfortunately, that option shows up in the stupidest of circumstances. I'm trying to intensify the cops chances of hitting scum night 2. Get it out of your head that NL with 6 is ALWAYS the right call. It's not always, and this is a special case where it's not. It's better to kill off a blank townie to lower the cops chances of hitting a blank townie by the one you killed. it's murderous yes I nkow, but its how the game is won.
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Post Post #310 (isolation #57) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:38 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

everyone has posted except skitzer. He's not deserving of a prod, but we can't start anything until he shows up.

So thus my proposition:

Mass claim {in an order chosen by Mizzy}
If more than one claim doc/cop, lynch one
Doc claims target N1
Cop claims target N1
If cop has a guilty, lynch him {obvious}
Lynch a townie
Night, doc protects cop, cop inv's a townie.



This is quite reasonable. You've seen every worst case scenario. In the best case scenario or the middle case {cop and doc hit the same target, but not one another} there is no trouble, and this will resolve itself as an auto-win for the town.
In the worst case, the game may very well come to LYLO, but in that case the best course of action is to lynch today and take out a blank townie {with the chance that the blank "townie" is scum}.
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Post Post #314 (isolation #58) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 2:30 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

no, i want a good vote on my proposition.

then I want a claim order by mizzy.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #59) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:09 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

because first off its a good comprimise by me.

and second, I trust you better than anyone here to make a claim order.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #60) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:40 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

yes i want a list of who you thinkt he order shoudl go in, all at once.

also, Power roles do not claim targets untila fter the claim.
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Post Post #320 (isolation #61) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:47 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

good.

in the meantime i took the situation to my stats professor and Dr. Jay said i was right.
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Post Post #322 (isolation #62) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:04 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

johoo
mizzy
alvinz
skitzer
oirew
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Post Post #324 (isolation #63) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:10 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

top is town.
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Post Post #333 (isolation #64) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:31 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

pretty sure thats gonna be her claim order.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #65) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:51 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

all right, miz i want results haha.
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Post Post #344 (isolation #66) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:27 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

skitzewr's up
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Post Post #347 (isolation #67) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:24 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

alvinz is up.
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Post Post #355 (isolation #68) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:01 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

cop.

next plz.
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Post Post #357 (isolation #69) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:52 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

johoo is up.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #70) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 8:21 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

mmhmm. i think its best i go first. i did indeed inv alvinz last night, obviously got pro town.

alvinz, go.
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Post Post #366 (isolation #71) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 3:14 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

heh

as cop thats my call right now.

but i was thinking oierew anyway. Lynch him, and ALVINZ GOOD DOCCING LAST NIGHT BUT YOU NEED TO PROTECT ME TONIGHT, OK!!!!????

Alright ill HAMMAH! oierew.
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Post Post #371 (isolation #72) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:01 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

well then the assumption that the scum arent dumbasses holds for me.
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Post Post #378 (isolation #73) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:05 pm

Post by Rosso Carne »

OM!!!!!

HAMMAH!!!!!!

vote: oierew
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Post Post #389 (isolation #74) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 5:54 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

flay, im out of all my rough spots and im always vocal when im in a good place.

he thing is, i would have played this way no matter what. you n00Bs need to learn that in order to be a good town player you have to be aggressive and not sit around singing kum ba yah all day. the scum wont come out by themselves, you need to make them come out. dont EVER sit around doing nothing sitting on your hands and letting others find the scum.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #75) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 6:03 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

if being aggressive is not townie, then theres is no townie behavior.

if you dont want to win the game, quit mafia.
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Post Post #393 (isolation #76) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:15 am

Post by Rosso Carne »

thank you.

been saying that all game.

listen to your mod n00Bs.
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