Newbie 549: (Game Over)

ting =) · Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Sun Jan 20, 2008 1:53 pm

/confirm. when do we start?

ting =) · Post Post #18 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:02 pm

random

vote:Powerful Wizard IRL.

Technically speaking though, with 5 towns and 2 scums, random voting means that I'm 40 something percent more likely to vote a town. Hmmm....

ting =) · Post Post #28 (isolation #2) » Wed Jan 23, 2008 5:34 pm

@bat. Yes, my vote was random. I was going to go and pull it out once things get serious, but seeing how everything played out with PWIRL... I think I'll keep it on him.

Also, could one of you guys unvote Ross? I get from bat's and blck posts that neither of you guys are going to lynch him so fast, and neither am I, and I doubt that Ross will move his vote from PWIRL to himself, but still, an L-1 so fast makes me uneasy.

ting =) · Post Post #29 (isolation #3) » Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:18 pm

EBWOP: That should be @blck, not @bat, sorry.

ting =) · Post Post #30 (isolation #4) » Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:26 pm

Because it doesn't seem like much of a strategy for the scum to each put the other at L-1, I doubt that Rosso and PWIRL are both scum. That said, they are each individually suspicious.

I read through everything, and I thought things over, and I'd have to disagree. Townies aren't very likely to hammer, see, so if Ross and PWIRL are the mafia, and they L-1 each other, they're actually quite safe from lynching, seeing as no one will hammer them.

Another thing, in post 22, Ross says:

unvote, vote wizard

seriously this time, he needs to be lynched before his scum buddy can have ample bussing and distancing time.

I think that's exactly what you're doing Ross, distancing yourself from your scumbuddy.

FOS: Ross and PWIRL

ting =) · Post Post #33 (isolation #5) » Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:28 am

Just a heads up, I'll be staying at my friend's place from Friday till the weekend's done. He has net, but I'm not sure how often I can log in, so... yeah, I'll try, but I might not have much posts till Monday.

ting =) · Post Post #42 (isolation #6) » Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:53 pm

Hey mod, could we have a

vote count?

I'm in class now, so this is going to be short, but anyway, I think the scummiest person so far is Ross. His actions and his words are far too contradictory.

unvote. vote:Rosso Carne

ting =) · Post Post #44 (isolation #7) » Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:02 pm

Just posting my opinions on everyone:

PWIRL has said that his L-1 was a 'newb move'. I'm tempted to think that he's just playing the new guy card to get away with it, but there's nothing much to read on besides his 2 posts, so I really can't say.

Blck and Batt are easily the 2 most active people, and neither of them have done anything scummy. Right now I'm leaning on both of them being town, but that's because of lack of scumminess, not because of proof of being town.

Niltic hasn't really said much either, but like blck and batt, she hasn't really done anything scummy, so I'm willing to just take her as being town for the moment.

Sir Tornado, I'm not too sure how to read. After Ross, he's the oldest player in the game, so I'm not too comfortable with making a decision too quickly.

That said, all of us playing have in one time or another voted for Ross, with the exception of Batt who has not yet cast a vote, but has SFOSed Ross, making Ross easily the favorite lynch choice. There are 4 people, myself, Blck, Batt and Sir Tornado who have asked him to explain himself. That's enough for a lynch, and I think I'm quite right in assuming that none of us are satisfied with his explanation for his L-1.

ting =) · Post Post #56 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:05 pm

Just out of curiousity, how long do you guys want to wait till we go for a lynch? I think we all have a clear enough idea about who we each are most suspicious of. This game isn't going to move unless we vote for them.

ting =) · Post Post #58 (isolation #9) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:40 am

Hmmm... as far as I can tell, they're the

only

suspects. All the votes cast so far have been at one of those two, with the exception of 2 random votes at batt.

Right now, I'm leaning towards a Ross lynch. After re-reading everything though, I'm not so sure. His behaviour is looking more like over eagerness than actual scuminess, but... he's still my first choice.

Views from everyone else would be nice though. I think we should all put our votes on someone now, for pressure if nothing else.

ting =) · Post Post #62 (isolation #10) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 4:47 pm

Eh? Why vote Sir Tornado? Is it because you think he's scum, or just to get him to talk?

ting =) · Post Post #64 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:16 pm

quicklynches do NOT help the town, lynching quicklynchers are lynching people who do not help the town, and the only people that do not help the town are SCUM!

That's just the thing mate. You tried to quicklynch him too. If we follow your logic that quicklynchers are scum, then you just called yourself a scum. I get that you see what you did as being pro-town, but it doesn't change that L-1ing someone so fast looks scummy.

ting =) · Post Post #69 (isolation #12) » Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:27 pm

I really think we should just bandwagon on someone now. I don't think it'll lead to a lynch so fast in forum mafia, from what I can tell, these games could take weeks to finish.

@ross. I call truce. I've pretty much said all I meant to say, me speaking up again would just ploughing over the same ground, and like you said, it's dragging on. Maybe niltic is right and it really was nothing more than impulsiveness, but I'll keep my vote on you for now.

@niltic.

According to the tells and stuff, Rosso and PWIRL seem most scummy.
I don't think they're buddies, though. Rosso seems a little to heated for that.

You've called them both scummyish, but you don't think that both of them are scum. That means you think only one of them is mafia. Who do you most think it is?

ting =) · Post Post #75 (isolation #13) » Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:26 pm

heya, i'll be out of town for a bit. i'll try to go online, but no guarantees. =(

ting =) · Post Post #80 (isolation #14) » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:44 pm

It's not aggresiveness I'm against, I like aggresiveness, it's... well, we've all already gone through this. I honestly think we've gotten all the discussion we can from the first day, I think we should all just put our votes on whoever we think is scummiest now.

ting =) · Post Post #88 (isolation #15) » Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:05 am

@niltic. Blck's right, you did forget to vote for anyone after doing your dice thing. When he raised his suspicions on you, you replied to his points, but you still didn't bother to put your vote on anyone. Any reason why?

All in all though, I don't think any of your posts warrants an FoS, but that's just me. I get how blck thinks your posts are wishy washy, but i think you're just really unwilling to bandwagon, and are content to sit on the fence until you're absolutely certain someone's scum.

@alvin. You've replaced pwirl, who was the prime suspect of quite a number of the players here. It's possible that pwirl was just playing badly, but it's also possible that he was scum, and so, you're scum. You've inherited his votes. What are your thoughts on the game so far?

ting =) · Post Post #93 (isolation #16) » Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:48 am

*sigh. We've covered this. Honestly, let's just lynch someone. We'll be able to get a better read on everyone based on whether they voted for or against it. I'd transfer my vote to alvin, just to get a lynch already, but he hasn't said anything yet, and I don't think that'd be very fair.

ting =) · Post Post #100 (isolation #17) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:08 am

@batt. In a hurry? Yes. For night? No. I think the purpose of day is so that we can discuss, and then weed out scum. As I see it though, we've discussed all we can. It's time to move on and lynch the person we think scummiest. I'm in a hurry for the next day, where we find out if the person really was scum, and we can make guesses on everyone else based on whether they voted for that person or not.

ting =) · Post Post #115 (isolation #18) » Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:00 pm

Hi, i'm back, sorry for the long no post.

I have a new suspect now, but since we're already close to a lynch, and we already have two suspects, I'm going to wait and see how night one turns out before I post my suspicions.

I still think Rosso is the scummiest right now, but for the sake of a lynch, I am going to transfer my vote over to Alvin in 6 hours if he doesn't make a post by then.

ting =) · Post Post #117 (isolation #19) » Sun Feb 10, 2008 6:45 pm

The mod said in post 105 that Alvin was still alive. I'm guessing he's at L-1.

ting =) · Post Post #118 (isolation #20) » Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:16 pm

He's made 5 posts, and never once defended himself. He had enough time to try and clear his name, but he didn't bother. I'm going to

unvote. vote:alvin

ting =) · Post Post #126 (isolation #21) » Tue Feb 12, 2008 6:04 pm

Batt, care to explain your vote on me? You didn't even give a reason. I'm not worried about dying since it's 3 to lynch, but until you give me an explanation on why I'm voted for, you're on my suspicions list.

FOS: Batt

As much as I really thought Ross was scum, I'd have to take that back. He pushed really hard for the pwirl/alvin lynch. I thought at first that they were both scum and he was distancing, but... he pushed really hard for the vote. He's on my tentative town list.

Batt: He'd be on my town list, but a vote without giving a reason? I just don't see that as being pro-town. I'd call him scum, but the thing is, he was on the alvin wagon, so i'm not so sure.

Niltic/Sir Tornado: I don't really know that much about either of these two. I like Sir T's plan, but you're neglecting the possibility that the cop might have investigated either alvin, or blck. That only gives us 1 confirmed townie, since his investigation turned up dead.

1 confirmed townie and 4 unconfirmed wouldn't be much help. I don't see how we could proceed from that. I think the cop shouldn't claim IF he investigated either blck or alvin.

If the cop investigated someone else though, I think Sir T's plan for a claim should lead to a town win.

ting =) · Post Post #132 (isolation #22) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:42 pm

you openly said you thought blck was town and he ended up dead.

How does that prove anything? Everyone has their own list of town/scum in their head, just for posting mine, and someone on my town list dies, I'm scum?

Wanting night to come so you can use your power role

I already explained myself. The discussion on day one had gone stale. We were going over the same ground over and over, I'm not the only one who thought so. It was time for day 2.

That would be a very risky gambit to pull. First going straight at his partner's throat at the very beginning when he could have just shrugged it off as being a noob mistake.

As much as I really thought Ross was scum, I'd have to take that back. He pushed really hard for the pwirl/alvin lynch. I thought at first that they were both scum and he was distancing, but... he pushed really hard for the vote. He's on my tentative town list.

Yes, that's why I changed my opinions on Ross. And seriously, you think Ross' L-1 of pwirl is a 'risky gambit', but when I actually go and hammer pwirl/alvin, it's all fair game?

I think that the other scum is not an IC. The reason being, it would have been smart to kill rosso last night instead of blcknght. Rosso is basically a confirmed townie to the town so if you leave him alive he will increase the remaining scum's chances of being lynched. That means it is either you or joan and I'm placing my bet on you.

Here, you're making the insulting assumption that both joan and I would make lousy scum just because we're both new.

ting =) · Post Post #134 (isolation #23) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:25 pm

Right now batt, you're highest on my scum list. You seem very intent on a lynch on me, and have casted a vote without waiting for anyone else's discussion. Why the rush? Niltic and Ross haven't even said anything yet. If you're town, then why not wait for more discussion before casting a vote? Only scum have to gain by going for a lynch before we're done discussing.

@Sir T. Yes, my mistake, alvin was dead during night. I'm still not sure with a cop claim if he investigated blck though. Worse case scenario:

cop investigates doc. we lynch a town. scum kills doc.
we're down to 1confirmed cop, 1 unconfirmed town, 1 scum.
With the doc dead, the scum can just claim doc, we lose.
2nd worse case scenario is if cop investigates town, and the scum kills the town the cop investigated. That will boil down to the doc claiming, the scum claiming doc, and then we get a wifom where the cop will have to choose correctly.

If the cop investigated someone else, he should follow Sir T's plan and claim.

ting =) · Post Post #135 (isolation #24) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:28 pm

That's a good point sir t. After rereading, it seems that batt is quite against your plan, despite its logic. I'm starting to think you're right, and that batt is scum trying to get someone else lynched before the cop can claim.

ting =) · Post Post #136 (isolation #25) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:04 pm

I was just thinking things over. Worse case for cop claim is not as bad as the worse case for no cop claim.

If the cop claims now, at worse, we get 1 confirmed town. If he doesn't claim now but waits till he has more information, the scum could nk him at night 2, since the doc won't know who to protect. We'll then have no confirmed townies at all.

I realize I've posted quite a lot on sir t's plan, but that's mostly because I've been posting my thoughts as they hit me. Anyway, I've finally come to conclude that we should go with Sir T's plan.

Unless anyone else has any ideas. Niltiacjoan, Rosso, what do you guys think?

@Batt. You don't want to go with it, but haven't given any concrete reason why not. Do you have a better plan, or do you see any serious flaws? Unless you can give me a good explanation why not, I'm leaning towards voting you once everyone has posted their thoughts.

ting =) · Post Post #139 (isolation #26) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:32 pm

I'm guessing joan is cop. With the 5 of us left, there's:

Sir T: wants a cop claim.
Ross: wants a cop claim.
Ting: wants a cop claim.
Batt: does not want a cop claim.
Joan: hasn't said anything.

That cancels out the first 3 of us as cop because we're all not claiming, but we all want a cop claim. That leaves Batt and Joan. I doubt Batt is the cop. He'd have no reason not to claim.

With Sir T's cop+doc claim:

worse case:
We have confirmed cop and doc, 3 unconfirmed, one of which is scum.
The cop investigates an unconfirmed, and we lynch an unconfirmed. Scum nk doc.
At day 3 we have a cop, a confirmed townie, and one obvious scum.
=town win. Anything else happening just makes things easier for us town, I can't think of any way for scum winning if we follow Sir T's plan of the cop claiming, and then the doc after him.

So, either Batt is scum, and gave a crappy reason to try and prevent a plan that would lead to a town win, or he's cop who didn't feel like claiming, so tried to make an excuse. I think you're scum, but anyway, if you're cop, you really should claim now.

Assuming Batt is scum though, that leaves niltiac, who hasn't said anything yet. I'm guessing she's the cop, but we won't know until she actually says something.

ting =) · Post Post #141 (isolation #27) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:59 am

Bad as a current course of action, or bad as in it makes the game broken if the roleblocker is lynched day 1 in a pie e7? I'm guessing you mean the latter, but I don't think the setup is that broken. Our game, where we actually ended up lynching the roleblocker day 1 and the scum failed to kill a power role, has got to be a pretty rare occurence. Granted, I haven't read through all the games, and this is my first here, but it can't happen that often.

On with the game though: @Ross, Batt, Sir T. Are you guys sure that none of you are the cop who are just unwilling to claim? I know I've said that I think Batt is scum, but I've just read through everything again, and remembered he was on the alvin wagon, L-1 ing hm. Ross was on the wagon too. You Sir T, weren't, but then you did bring up your plan, which as far as I can tell, can't lead to a scum win, so i'm fairly certain you're town.

That makes niltiacjoan who I thought was cop, scum. Unless either Ross or Batt are scum, and decided to lynch his buddy precisely to lead to this.

To cut it short: Ross, Batt, Niltiacjoan. I think one of you three is cop, and the other is scum. I can't decide for sure until joan posts though.

ting =) · Post Post #147 (isolation #28) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:40 pm

I AM THE DOC.

Hurray for town win! =P I say we give it a day or two, just to see if anyone counterclaims, and then we lynch niltiac, investigate Rosso. Or the other way, it won't really matter. If you're townie and we lynch you, we still win after day 3 lylo.

ting =) · Post Post #160 (isolation #29) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:21 pm

Huh? I don't get to hammer both the scum? *pouts

I claim dibs on hammering ross if joan is town. =P

ting =) · Post Post #162 (isolation #30) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:55 pm

Wooot~! =)

I had fun you guys. And I learned a lot. Hope I get to play with you guys again sometime.

ting =) · Post Post #166 (isolation #31) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 4:09 pm

I think it's a pie e7. And yes, day 2 was not at all as fun as day 1. It's just the whole, 'muahahah didn't screw up my first game, yay' that made me happy about day 2.

Just game theory related question for Sir T though:
Am I correct in thinking that a day 2 cop claim will always be good in pie e7?

Even if we lynch the goon and the roleblocker lives, the cop claiming in day 2 gives 2, or at the very least, one confirmed town. If he doesn't claim, we mislynch, and he gets nk'd night 2, that's no confirmed town, and day 3 lylo. He's guaranteed to die night 2 if he claims with the roleblocker alive, but he atleast narrows down the list.

If a mislynch happens on day 1 and we have day 2 lylo, and assuming random numbers, we have a 1/5 chance of getting a scum. If the cop claims, and again assuming random numbers, that's a 1/4 chance of getting scum, 1/3 if he investigated a townie who didn't die in the night, and 1/1 if he investigated a scum. Assuming he investigated a scum, we have 1/2 chance of it being the roleblocker. The best case scenario of him investigating a scum and it being the roleblocker is 1/12. The worse case scenario of him dying in night 1 is 1/6. The scenario of him living through day 1, and dying in night 2 if he doesn't claim is 5/30, greater than 1/12.

If he waits till day 3, at worst, he investigates town who gets nk'd, and he reveals only himself. At best, it's a win, but all this is assuming that they get through the lylo, and the cop survives night 2, and there's no wifom involved, just random numbers.

Even assuming we end up losing the doctor night 1, or lynching him day 1 - the cop claim, even if it kills the cop, significantly raises the odds of pulling through the day 2 lylo, right? Compared to running the risk of mislynch on day 2 lylo, and the cop surving night 2 to report till day 3, and being able to sift through fake claims and wifom.

I know the way the players play, and scum tells and things like that affect the game quite a lot, but assuming none of those, would a cop claim be the ideal day 2 play?

ting =) · Post Post #168 (isolation #32) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 5:19 pm

Yeah, but I'm asking about all other cases as well. RB kill is the only auto win case for a claim. I'm curious if a cop claim is also the best case in other day 2 scenarios. Doc claims are out of the question because they're dead in night 2 after claiming. They'll be more useful not claiming so they could maybe get another save in. Cop claims would also tell the doctor who to protect, besides the fact that it narrows down the possible scum list.

I haven't bothered to consider all possible scenarios and whether or not the cop claim would be good in each case, and I also haven't bothered to calculate all the statistics. I'm just wondering if, as a general rule, cop claim day 2 is the best play.

ting =) · Post Post #170 (isolation #33) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 6:30 pm

Well, yes. It's unfair to the scum, but only if the town actually manages to get the RB. Finding scum will be hard if the scum play well, and even if you think you've managed to find scum, there's no way to know if he's the roleblocker, since there's no tells distinct towards to the RB that won't apply to goon. It makes the game slanted towards town I think, but not so much so.

My question isn't really one of balance though. The setup is currently being played, and I'm just wondering about what strategies are ideal for the town on day 2.

On another note, I've been reading up the other games. There's this set up called california which seems pretty good. Since there's no doc, a cop claim will result in the cop being nk'd, and since he's the only cop, it makes cop claims a more last ditch thing. It sounds pretty balanced to me, though slightly slanted towards scum, but I've never played one, so I wouldn't know.