Newbie 573: The Bourne Identity - Game Over!

[Adel]

/confirm

[Adel]

I hate cats, especially kittens.

vote: the_cat_herder

the best way to herd cats is with a super-soaker filled kerosene and stinky fish laid in big straw baskets. Be careful with the match.

[Adel]

lord_hur gets a FoS.

[Adel]

[Adel]

since we are ICs we (along with MR. Stoofer) will answer any questions you may have while we play. Cicero and I have played in the same game a couple of times before. He has the logical typing skills. Mine are a little more lateral.

vote: the_cat_herder

just in case it didn't stick last time.

[Adel]

you're doing it wrong.

[Adel]

1. How many of you have played mafia online before. this is almost my 30th game here.
2. How many of you play it in real life at parties or with a werewolf cardgame or whatever? i've only played online and on this site
3. How many of you would know what we meant if we said WIFOM? I prefer the term "recursive logic trap" for it's flavor and accuracy.
4. How did you stumble on mafiascum.net? the wikihow widget on my google homepage featured it one day ("how to play mafia")

[Adel]

- How do you know someone is not posting because he has something to hide, as opposed to having a natural tendency to be reserved, trying to not get attention cause he has a power role, or even having a busy period IRL ?

- how much time is generally considered reasonable to wait for a certain player before a prod is issued to him ?

1. you don't, unless they say that they've been busy while still posting elsewhere on the site.

2. it depends upon the mod... 72 hours or so.

[Adel]

MoS made this post in my last newbie game.

He was a townie in that game. Unlike this game, there was both a doctor and a cop and a mafia roleblocker in that game. In this game we only have a cop, there is no doctor or roleblocker.

~~~

Someone mentioned statistics. The town has ~ a 30% of winning this game, based upon past newbie game with one cop and no doc or roleblocker.

~~~

Don't claim "townie" unless you are at lynch -1. Only claim "cop" if you really are the cop. If you really are the cop don't get yourself in a position where you have to claim. 'k?

[Adel]

musher, easily.

[Adel]

it is based upon my memory of the results of previous newbie games posted at http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 12&start=0
the newbie games used to be C9, which had 2 goons, 1 cop and 4 townies 25% of the time (just like California does 100% of the time). IIRC the town won ~30% of those games.

[Adel]

I'll bandwagon and go for Adel.
btw, will probably be afk for Saturday, is that alright?

unvote: vote MSK

for being gutsy newbie scum.

[Adel]

unvote

can cicero explain why please?

[Adel]

@cicero: yes.

[Adel]

dude, you put him at lynch -1 without providing a warning. Any player could make the mistake of not noticing that he was only one post away from being lynched. You know better. "Accidental hammer" votes should never be allowed to happen.

[Adel]

2 != 3

damnit.

i beg a thousand pardons for my transgression

vote: MSK

[Adel]

unvote

We have one cop, no doctor, and no mafia roleblocker.

I'll crunch the numbers tonight, but I have a hunch that nolynch day 1 + a modified hypocop day 2 may yield better results than the statistical average for the town.

[Adel]

it doesn't work afterall. darn.

vote: MSK

[Adel]

it doesn't work afterall. darn.

vote: MSK

I'm having trouble figuring out how you could possibly have thought it would. I'm a dumb lawyer and you are a mathematical supercomputer. Since it seemed pretty obvious to me (once I learned what hypocop was) that it would work better with 6 players than with 7 (to the extent that it could work at all in a game this short) for reasons I had articulated (probability of cop finding a guilty party tonight go from 2 in 7 to 2 in 6).

So why shouldn't I vote for you as the scum you probably are?

this was the basic idea I had. I thought it would adjust hypocop, and allow us to benifit from cop investigations without risking an early cop outing.


I. day 1: 7 players
A. Each player is randomly assigned a number, 1-7
B. The real Cop investigates the player with a number 1 lower than the one he has. If the Cop is assigned the 1, then he investigates the player with a 7.
C. All players vote "No Lynch"
II. night 1
A. Mafia kill one townie
B. The cop investigates one player
III. day 2, 6 players
A. If the cop has a guilty he announces that he has a guilty.
B. Each player is randomly assigned a number, 1-6
C. The real Cop investigates the player with a number 1 lower than the one he has. If the Cop is assigned the 1, then he investigates the player with a 6.
D. All players vote "No Lynch"
IV. night 2
A. Mafia kill one townie
B. The cop investigates one player
V. day 3, 5 players
A. Cop claims, waits for counter claim.
B. Town lynchs mafia

[Adel]

p.s. it almost works. almost. the math was close.

[Adel]

that is one problem. there are others as well.

[Adel]

only works out that wa about 10% of the time. And then half of the time it is because an IC busses his scumbuddy really hard.

[Adel]

And in this case, wouldnt it be more beneficial to just select a random person with a dice roll and lynch him ?

Damn near.

A fully random lynch would actually net better results on day 1 on average. However a fully random lynch on day 1 would result on less town wins, so it is not a viable tactic.

A day 1 is really more about information than it is about getting a good lynch.
The town and the mafia both seek information on day 1. The town players want enough information to somehow make an informed lynch decision on future days. Te mafia players seek clues as to who the power role is. One power role tell that new players make again and again is o hint that they are the cop. If you are the cop don't speculate as to who the cop is. Avoid talking about if the cop should claim or not. Only claim if you at lynch -1 or if you need to reveal results. I personally think that you should wait until you have one "guilty" result or two "innocent" results on other players before claiming. When it is time to come forward, either on day 2 or day 3, wait until the middle of the day to state your findings. Try to trap other players with the information you have before you come forward.

The mafia will also try to get the cop to claim.

[Adel]

So the actual chance of lynching scum is really this low ?

How come it is not at least 2/7 = nearly 30 % ?

1. yes.
2. Because the mafia typically don't lynch each other. A matrix is a better way to visualize this information, I need to draw it up sometime. There really isn't anything to go on day 1, so it is random with two actors who won't vote for each other.

[Adel]

\poked. damnit cicero.

[Adel]

I'll go ahead and put you at

-1 to lynch

just to help you along

vote: the_cat_herder

[Adel]

unvote

[Adel]

vote: the_cat_herder

[b/]

[Adel]

[b]vote: the_cat_herder[/b]

[Adel]

no, it probably won't count. I felt like showing y'all some of the tricks that some players occasionally use to trip up other players. Some moderators (not ours though) have a strict rule that a player has to unvote in order to cast a valid vote on a different person. Sometimes misreading a vote and lead you to make some errors, like admitting that you are Mafia once you think you've been lynched but really haven't been.

just some fyi.

[Adel]

If any of you (other than cicero) are feeling bored, you may want to consider replacing into a mini normal. That would give you several if not dozens of existing pages of gameplay to read, as well as help keep a game from dying.

I think cicero is town. As scum I would've expected him to throw in more verbage.

vote: the cat herder

[Adel]

no need to prod me. I'm still around.

[Adel]

was it my 27 posts a day in other games that gave me away?

[Adel]

.. or we could just lynch him and move on with it...

[Adel]

cat herder. If cat herder was a powerrole he would've mentioned claiming at some point, or something. Anyhow, this day is pretty bleak, so I'm ready to sit back take the NK and watch the town play follow-the-cop for a win. The scum would be foolish not to NK me.

[Adel]

I've been lynched 12 times as town. It is really frustrating.

[Adel]

seriously though, if cicero were scum some townie newbie would be lynched by now and I would be the Nk during the night. I'm sure he is town.

[Adel]

Adel, you and I play very differently. basically I try to play townie as town and scum. You play scummy as town and scum - which probably explains you being lynched 12 times as scum.

Have I been lynched 12 times? I thought that I've only been scum a total of four times... hmmm...

for a really disasterous example of newbie play: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683

don't be afraid to make

cents

mistakes.

[Adel]

go town.