Blitz 15: Monks and Masons in Serona II - GAME OVER!

[davesaz]

what's that about? Haven't read very far...

[davesaz]

This time I think I'll make notes on each chunk of catch up, and post my impressions through that section.

Spoiler: notes

page 1, yakko confirmed as vt, possible scum

page 2, already I want to check who AI is. AlwaysInnocent...
lowell believes yakko's "townslip confirm"
ranger has reads already. Expected, but don't know if it is alignment indicative.
Ranger's bottom scumread flipped mafia after a wolf night kill.
Spigot reads umlaaut as town, also ranger
Yakko doesn't understand? or is that strategic?
tojam2's Kaboose vote is opportunistic

page 3
FA asks Kaboose to answer his own question. Lowell votes for the same post 12 minutes later.
Turns out Kaboose means nightmare in FA's language?
AlwaysInnocent surprised Kaboose is at l-2, Lowell asks if it's upsetting
Kaboose 71 - we need to have wagons - town

page 4
kaboose asks AlwaysInnocent why he's pointing to the weirdness of the wagon.
AI thinks it's odd that Kaboose is questioning that but not the people on the wagon
84 Anxiety Attack (SW) catching up. Why did Spigot townread umlauut for doing something that is not buddying?
AA also does not like Kaboose's 47
Does like Lowell's 54.
AA votes Spigot (who flipped scum after NK)
Yakko wonders why running someone up to L-2 is weird (AI)
Spigot thinks Yakko is scum

Page 5
108 Spigot townread ranger because "I don't care what you think" seems town
118 AI: voting for Spigot is bad idea (where did that come from?)

Impressions / summary through page 5
Yakko's confirmation as VT could be a calculated scum move
Lowell believing it's a townslip is a bit sketch too
Ranger getting reads fast is expected, and her bottom scumread in that first list flipped scum after NK. Not alignment indicative though.
Lots of people jumped on Kaboose's treatment of his early wagon. Gonna be hard to read based on that.
tojam2's Kaboose vote looks like delayed RVS but also in an opportunistic location.
Anxiety Attack doesn't like Kaboose, does like Lowell, votes Spigot.
Yakko questions the runup to L-2, Spigot scumreads Yakko.

Reads through page 5
Yakko - scumlean
Lowell - weak scumlean
Ranger - null
Kaboose - town lean
tojam2 - scum lean
Anxiety Attack - town lean
AlwaysInnocent - town lean

[davesaz]

Spoiler: notes

Page 6
AI - yakko has done nothing precisely scummy
Lowell FoS's AA, worse in the exchange with spigot
Spigot no conclusions
Bebop shows up and votes Lowell for post 54 after referencing a bunch of posts but not putting any names to them.
Bebop town leans on Ranger and AI
Bebop agrees with spigot townread of Kaboose

Page 7
Spigot (pignash) no scum reads
Umlaut disregards the confirm slip, doesn't get the Kaboose wagon, scumreads Spigot, Weak scumread Yakko, no townreads
Yakko doesn't like that Umlaut and AI have lack of stance. wants to unvote, wants to be patient. Scumreads BlackStar
BlackStar questions why no reason.
Blackstar no reads
Umlaut 162 not liking Yakko
164/165 Blackstar asks Yakko for a reason, Yakko gives stiffarm
Yakko is claiming to be townread by everyone, Umlaut rebuts

Page 8
More Yakko vs BlackStar. Yakko is leading wagon.
Kaboose doesn't have reads
Ranger has reads, has Spigot as 100% scum, Kaboose as scum

Page 9
Yakko votes AlwaysInnocent, who replies immediately. Reaction test?
BeBop gives a reads list, the reasons are a little thin but at least there are some
A few people wake up to the game being MB

Page 10
Pisskop 236 possible scum slip "the other team" though it can be construed as Yakko is scum
Fair amount of back and forth on the theory, nothing much substantial.

Page 6-10 impressions / reads

Yakko seems fairly scummy over these pages. I don't like the "everyone else town reading me" thing. Don't
like Yakko saying he'll explain anything but then refusing to explain when asked. Pisskop's appeal to own
authority on the theory question is typical and I think not alignment indicative.

I'll probably focus more on the vote flow from this point, tomorrow.

[davesaz]

I agree that tojam looks bad but is much too easy a target. I'd prefer more of the day used in scum hunting, over a quick lynch.
Please share your current scum reads. Yeah, I'll look back over today to see if you've given them already...

[davesaz]

Yeah. I didn't want to lynch a townie, so I opposed the BlackStar Lynch. I did however offer an alternative. A better alternative for sure.

Hmm, you had some way of knowing that BlackStar was a townie?

[davesaz]

I have a gut scumread on toejam. His vote on Kaboose was opportunistic and bad plus he comes off as scum avoiding the thread and only putting prod doge type of posts here. He's not interacting w anyone or scumhunting.

~SW

This.

I agree with the 2nd part of this, but please explain the 1st.
Also note my question asked for reads, plural.

Pedit: A lurker lynch gives practically no information. Obviously good if it's on scum, not so good if it's not. But the worst part about a lurker lynch is that scum on the lynch don't have to give reasons which require any thought.

The more important part about my observation is that the worst thing to do is to make it quick, because then we're denied the day's deliberations outside the wagon.

[davesaz]

Oh pisskop is pr obviousky

If he is, it's not town to say so.

[davesaz]

Reads have been given. Any questions please ask. This is a blitz. So lynches are gonna be quicker. Like I said I have a gut scumread on him and we can all get our say first but I'm cool with him dying today. If he wants to give more input to prevent his lynch, I'm all for it.

~SW

Deadlines on the sites I played on before tended to be between 3 and 7 days, so I'm quite familiar with the pace. It's actually more natural for me.
We do have more than 24 hours left so I'm fine seeing some discussion. Doesn't mean I won't lynch the lurker if that's all we have by then.
Thanks for the reads in another post.

[davesaz]

I've noticed this pattern in Yakko of naked voting people. Reminds me of scum feeling out all the possibilities in a way that gives total deniability should anyone question it.
So does the PR fishing, though in this game it makes little or no sense if I understand the setup correctly.

[davesaz]

Yeah. I didn't want to lynch a townie, so I opposed the BlackStar Lynch. I did however offer an alternative. A better alternative for sure.

This reads so bad to me. Are you saying you didn't want to lynch a townie so you didn't lynch him? In which case, how did you know he was a townie?

You have a disturbing tendency to repeat points that others have already made. Care to explain?

[davesaz]

With regard to 561, I have been avoiding the thread because

I didn't have a god damn computer in god damn North Yorkshire!

Of course that's not alignment indicative.

My vote on Kaboose was not opportunistic, I just have a grudge on randomers from when I played Sabotage on Minecraft.

Assuming computer woe is fixed, you'll be posting more?

[davesaz]

So who do you think is scum rn?

Ranger right now, seems to be pushing a mass majority opinion, and I feel like she is buddying me.

Can you provide some quotes regarding majority opinion?

[davesaz]

Wha?

Why are you taking my RVS vote seriously?

can you answer your own question please?

unvote

VOTE: kaboose

I really hate 47-- especially the part where he gets defensive about a random vote. I don't really like 39 either, though, looks like spigot wants to put a vote where it won't draw attention.

Agree with ranger: both spigot and kaboose are fine lynches.

Same point as someone else already made.

[davesaz]

Yeah. I didn't want to lynch a townie, so I opposed the BlackStar Lynch. I did however offer an alternative. A better alternative for sure.

Hmm, you had some way of knowing that BlackStar was a townie?

Yeah. I didn't want to lynch a townie, so I opposed the BlackStar Lynch. I did however offer an alternative. A better alternative for sure.

This reads so bad to me. Are you saying you didn't want to lynch a townie so you didn't lynch him? In which case, how did you know he was a townie?

Making the same point that someone else already made.

[davesaz]

Why are you repeating the points that others have already made?

[davesaz]

I could go either way, and will be available off/on for the rest of the time up to deadline.
For now I wanna see where, if anywhere, this goes.

VOTE: hi im Yakko

[davesaz]

So, no interest in Yakko lynch then?

VOTE: Tojam2

[davesaz]

Were they both at 4?

[davesaz]

You'd prefer a no-lynch?

[davesaz]

To see who would ask. VOTE: AlwaysInnocent
I previously said tojam was too easy. Who asks and who doesnt makes a great test.
Should be L-1

[davesaz]

Why such a strong need to explain why you're alive?

[davesaz]

Countdown: (expired on 2016-01-17 21:00:00)

@MOD: Umm, isn't this a blitz?

[davesaz]

Can anyone explain why we should allow Tjam to live?

Better question, why do you think tojam is scum?

[davesaz]

Currently 7 alive: 4t 2w 1m. If mislynch then 3-2-1, if ww kills m and m kills town then 2-2 is a loss going into day. If NL, worst case both scumteams kill town and it's 2-2-1, resulting in a crosskill being the only way for town to win.

Best to treat this functionally as a MYLO, though technically it's not due to the crosskill potential.

I think we need to focus on someone who is actively scummy and definitely not settle for a lurkaderp.

[davesaz]

I doubt it was a crosskill

You doubt what was a crosskill? And just in case we use that term differently, how do you define it?

[davesaz]

You doubt what was a crosskill? And just in case we use that term differently, how do you define it?

Isn't a cross kill when one scum team hits another?
I am confused.

Are you talking about when scum hits same target? I think thats just double hit on single target.

I'm referring to one team hitting the other. I made a future reference to town needing the teams to crosskill in order to win, and Yakko said he doubted it was (past tense) a crosskill.
I'm asking what wasn't (past tense) a crosskill and why not.

[davesaz]

Currently 7 alive: 4t 2w 1m. If mislynch then 3-2-1, if ww kills m and m kills town then 2-2 is a loss going into day. If NL, worst case both scumteams kill town and it's 2-2-1, resulting in a crosskill being the only way for town to win.

Best to treat this functionally as a MYLO, though technically it's not due to the crosskill potential.

I think we need to focus on someone who is actively scummy and definitely not settle for a lurkaderp.

The benefit though is likely high probability of a cross kill happening.

Can you point out someone who is being active and scummy?

Look for someone who is naked voting a bunch of people but never giving a reason. Posting but not making cases.
It works better if you find it yourself, but if not then ask again. I'm not being obtuse, trying to avoid influencing the observer.

[davesaz]

I previously referred to someone who was naked voting all the time. I think one of the scum is...

VOTE: hi im Yakko

[davesaz]

Ok, we have 4 roles to fill, sorry to Firebringer, but I don't take accusations lightly, especially when almost half of us are scum and we're actually relying on at least one crosskill this round, on top of a correct lynch.

The Stats:
The chance of a crosskill with a correct lynch are 55%.
The chance of 2 crosskills without a correct lynch is 3%.
The chance of a correct lynch is 57%

So basically toss two coins, if both land on heads, we win this round, if one lands on tails, roll 2 dice, if both land on 6, we also win this round.

This post is not helpful at all.

[davesaz]

VC 3.4

hi im Yakko

(2): Ranger, davesaz

davesaz

(1): hi im Yakko

Kaboose

(1): Anxiety Attack

tojam2

(1): Firebringer

Not Voting

(2): tojam2, Kaboose

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


Deadline: January 08, 9 PM US Eastern Time

Countdown: (expired on 2016-01-08 18:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

c/Kaboose/PhantomCobalt/*

?

[davesaz]

prod blocked at net

[davesaz]

Skimming ISOs here and Ranger's early game really irritates me, ranger also has a scummy place on the D1 wagon imo if we end up in a DL scramble id lynch ranger for scummy play, also dont want ranger in lylo, or is it mylo already? idek

Technically not mylo but functionally might as well be.
Why'd you start with Ranger?
Thoughts on Yakko?

[davesaz]

Skimming ISOs here and Ranger's early game really irritates me, ranger also has a scummy place on the D1 wagon imo if we end up in a DL scramble id lynch ranger for scummy play, also dont want ranger in lylo, or is it mylo already? idek

Technically not mylo but functionally might as well be.
Why'd you start with Ranger?
Thoughts on Yakko?

What makes you assume I started with Ranger?

Fair point, though I don't remember you mentioning anyone else.

[davesaz]

Vote Yakko to hit scum.

[davesaz]

Maybr just adding another townie or two would fix the set up and give town a better chance?

Yeah, I started to write a post last night saying the same thing but misclicked back and didn't feel like writing it again.