The One That I Cannot Kill [it's FINALLY done]
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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nope, no dancing.
while we're on the subject of not really talking about anything meaningful, i was thinking of modding a game after this, and maybe after oka's game finished. do you think people would have time for a max ~30 minute game?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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convince me that who is scum?In post 12, RadiantCowbells wrote:how do i convince you that i'm town
do you already think that i'm town?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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well i already think who might be scum, so-
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northsidegal Survivor
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you don't think so? i think it's somewhat suited for a marathon in that people have the freedom to leave if they get treestumped, so they don't actually have to stick around for the whole thingIn post 24, RadiantCowbells wrote:oh god not that
the chaos of spectators shouting at you in lylo also seems interesting, from a moderator point of view i guess-
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northsidegal Survivor
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rc im not sure how you haven't realized that i only mod for sadistic pleasure in watching people go through the horrible rat traps that i've constructed for them, you've played in fire on the mountain and baton pass
*ba dum tiss*
(this is a joke)-
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northsidegal Survivor
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oh yeah i forgot you were the scum who won and not one of the townies-
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northsidegal Survivor
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so let's say that who is scum
his lynchpin is probably me, right? unless he's trying some long strategy
and probably the same is true for you? perhaps that's too hasty of a conclusion though-
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northsidegal Survivor
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if that's a joke then i thought it was very funny, if it's not then i'm slightly confused-
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northsidegal Survivor
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which now that i read it sounds a little insulting but that's not how i meant it-
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northsidegal Survivor
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-shrug-In post 38, RadiantCowbells wrote:also NSG why do you keep talking about not this game rather than this game
there isn't a lot to say at the start of this game and so talking about random things on my mind is a good way to make conversation that will potentially lead to more relevant things being said, i imagine. especially in a three person game, i'm not sure how else i'd start a game, or at least a marathon one.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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probably.In post 44, RadiantCowbells wrote:i feel like who is in a really shitty situation if he rolled scum here
knowing that i'm town i actually feel right now like the optimal move for me is to just sit on my hands and do nothing to see what both of you do because scum presumably has to dosomething, but i don't imagine that that's a very fun strategy or very healthy for this game being interesting at all.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm tempted to yolo-vote like if this were lynchpin 4p but i'm not sure that's actually a good idea-
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northsidegal Survivor
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let's assume you're scum.
the trajectory of our conversation this game clearly points towards you voting who. you haven't yet stated an outright townread on me, but neither a scumread. i don't think there's a reliable conclusion to be drawn as to if you need who to vote me or if you need me to vote who.
i imagine that if you needed me to vote who, you would deliberately avoid trying to force me into it. probably you would keep making conversation, make subtle insinuations against who, and then when i decided i was ready, we would vote. i think that could plausibly be seen as what's happened so far -- not to imply that thatiswhat has happened so far, but that possibility for you as scum looks like what's happening now, even if you're town.
if you needed who to vote me, then that would require some kind of conversation to happen that just hasn't happened yet. i don't know what our deadline is or if we even have a deadline, but if we do then it certainly must be fast approaching for that conversation to happen, or for your confident declaration that i'm scum because i haven't shown myself to be town or some such thing.
who goes next, it makes me anxious typing psots this big in a marathon.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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do you think i'm scum?In post 48, Who wrote:
Sitting on your hands and letting townies fight also seems like a good strategy if you rolled scum.In post 45, northsidegal wrote:
probably.In post 44, RadiantCowbells wrote:i feel like who is in a really shitty situation if he rolled scum here
knowing that i'm town i actually feel right now like the optimal move for me is to just sit on my hands and do nothing to see what both of you do because scum presumably has to dosomething, but i don't imagine that that's a very fun strategy or very healthy for this game being interesting at all.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm going to assume your first line was meant to say that itIn post 49, RadiantCowbells wrote:i don't think that being complacent and assuming that i'm just going to figure out you're locktown without you showing it to me is a mistake on your part.
right now i'm definitely leaning scum who over scum you but i don't know that and that's something that i'd want to know before i did anything
i would look very ridiculous if i gave scum you a win here after allwouldbe a mistake --
that's why i decided against it? or rather, i brought it up specificallybecausei had considered it as a good strategy but decided against it. if i was going to do it i probably would have just done it and not said anything.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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this sentence is really weird, i don't think i can even parse its meaning at allIn post 50, RadiantCowbells wrote:from my point of view reading people off of the actual game mechanic unless i'm getting lynched and deciding what order for people to vote me is a mistake because i think i can generate reads more reliably off of standard play
in a standard speed game and if another player posted it i would probably be inclined to call it scummy, but that is not the game we are currently playing-
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northsidegal Survivor
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who do you think rc's lynchpin is? that is, The One That [He] Cannot Kill?In post 55, Who wrote:I don't know whether or not you're scum. I think it's more likely to be RC, but my scumread on him is weakening and I don't have a read on you.-
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that's not really what i was trying to get at, although i can see how what i said might be considered equivalent to thatIn post 54, RadiantCowbells wrote:do you think i ought to be more forthright than i have been-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm not sure why, seems like a fine way to approach this game to meIn post 60, RadiantCowbells wrote:but otherwise i am making zero effort to sort either yourself or who off of "well this person looks like they are playing around the game mechanics by doing X"-
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northsidegal Survivor
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that is, if you were town, what could you have done that would lookIn post 63, RadiantCowbells wrote:i understand what you're saying
i'm asking how i'm supposed to play around itdifferentthan that?
again, i think that might be getting at the wrong question. i'm not really using that possibility to say that you're scum. if anything, what i'm saying is that, if you're scum, i'm your lynchpin.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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-shrug-In post 67, RadiantCowbells wrote:because, like i said, i think that i am more reliably able to solve the game through other metrics than that one.
whatever works for you, i'm not really trying to criticize or say that you should be playing a certain way. i think it's pretty much NAI at the moment, unless you really wanted to stretch some theory-
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northsidegal Survivor
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oh, sure. i can broadly agree with that, in principle. i guess i'm not really following it this game, but i personally would apply it more to "theoretical" scumtells, i guess?In post 72, RadiantCowbells wrote:my philosophy as of about a year ago and how it has differed from past philosophies
is i don't use untested reasons to scumread people
i scumread people off of stuff that i have empirically seen be scumtells. i don't decide that certain behaviours are scummy based on out of game principles. it's cost me a few early scumreads but it has made my overall reads far more reliable
i don't actually know exactly what scum in this setup looks like so any read there is going to be untested whereas i have a fairly large body of work that i can use to read you and who off of standard play that has been tested
maybe i'm not putting this very descriptively, or maybe i'm just wrong and trying to explain it away. i guess i would say that this game i'm using the mechanic as sort of a line of logical reasoning (arrogant as that sounds) to imagine what scum would / wouldn't be doing, whereas i might apply your principle here if i was looking at some behavior for which i couldn't directly draw a line of reasoning to being scum-indicative, but even still suspected to be scummy all the same.
although, having said that, it does sound a lot like rationalization. even theoretical scumtells have a basis for being scum-indicative.
hm.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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my attack on you? i would say that, if anything, i've questioned RC far more this game, even if overall i've only outright said that you're scummy.In post 74, Who wrote:The only thing to have happened this game to give any information is NSG's attack on me implies that if she is scum her lynchpin is you.-
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i would say that, if i were scum this game, i would be going for far more of a wisdom-esque playstyle and sticking mostly to making more posts that would probably be one linersIn post 75, RadiantCowbells wrote:but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum
plus a lot of other stuff'd probably be different given having a lynchpin-
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what isn't alignment indicative?In post 81, RadiantCowbells wrote:ok
what if i tell you it's really not alignment indicative and that's a well known fact, what now-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i don't think so at all. i probably wouldn't hammer you right now if RC voted you.In post 83, Who wrote:
Whatever you want to call it. You've positioned yourself such that refusing to hammer me would be strange.In post 79, northsidegal wrote:
my attack on you? i would say that, if anything, i've questioned RC far more this game, even if overall i've only outright said that you're scummy.In post 74, Who wrote:The only thing to have happened this game to give any information is NSG's attack on me implies that if she is scum her lynchpin is you.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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no, but this is indeed a three person game and not an extended 13 player game in which i must endure 11 other players being enlightened as to just how much scums NSG isIn post 85, RadiantCowbells wrote:
this doesn't sound like a very effective strategy versus me.In post 82, northsidegal wrote:
i would say that, if i were scum this game, i would be going for far more of a wisdom-esque playstyle and sticking mostly to making more posts that would probably be one linersIn post 75, RadiantCowbells wrote:but NSG isn't exactly being tested overly hard right now if she's scum
plus a lot of other stuff'd probably be different given having a lynchpin
a three person game in which it's possible that my only win condition would be to lynch you, and as such fooling you would be of no concern. with that in mind, wouldn't you agree that it makes sense that, if i am scum this game, the person i must lynch is probably not you?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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The line of reasoning beginning from considering who a player must kill and must convince if they were scum, to be clear?In post 91, RadiantCowbells wrote:i just don't think that's an effective line of reasoning to sort people off of.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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I think if I were scum and RC voted you then I could easily make a case for him being scum who's concerned about the trajectory of my thoughts and wants to add pressure or some such (ha ha, not really, but in theoretical nsg-is-good-at-scum land i mean)In post 92, Who wrote:
Sure you could stall for a while without arousing suspicion, but if you were scum and I was your lynchpin then it would reach the point of suspicion quicker than if you refused to hammer RC.In post 86, northsidegal wrote:i don't think so at all. i probably wouldn't hammer you right now if RC voted you.
Although I think i've already presented a fairly strong case as for the argument that, if I am scum, RC is not the one that I need to kill. I'm also not sure how much this entire post I'm making is actually helpful moreso than just a rebuttal to an argument, but shrug-
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northsidegal Survivor
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In post 94, RadiantCowbells wrote:yes. if you go after the wrong person you still only have a 50% chance of it coming into question and if you go hard against someone early it's fairly easy to say "well I wouldn't have gone after the [one I couldn't kill] like this if I were scum"
I think it's a tool like any other. NKA is probably going to end up useless if you always go "well X died and he scumread Y, so Y is probably scum", or at the very least its effectiveness will be diminished if you were to only ever go for the most level 0 analysis every time. I don't think that has to be the case, I think it's a lot easier to go deeper into it than that.In post 95, RadiantCowbells wrote:like it's going to work some of the time. it's not null effectiveness. but is it good enough? I don't think that it is.
That is, I think you could easily look at a player's progression throughout the day and think about if it looks genuine or not, if it really could come from someone who knew the whole time who they had to lynch or if it came from someone who really was uninformed.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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RC, what do you think of the argument that if I'm scum, the one I couldn't vote is you?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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Let's say that I was confirmed to be town.
Isn't there a mechanical way to ensure town's victory?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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I'm confirmed town. You vote me, unvote. Who votes me, unvote. One of you is scum, and the other is the lynchpin. You crossvote, town wins. Or, more accurately, one of you crossvotes, the other refuses, we lynch them, town wins.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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That's a hypothetical "I'm confirmed town" there, just to be clear.-
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If both of you are able to vote me then it indicates that I'm not anyone's lynchpin. That means the two people who aren't me are scum and scum's lynchpin, respectively. If scum votes their lynchpin they lose, so if both of you could vote me then crossvoting would result in an instant scum loss.-
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Alternatively, I could be the lynchpin (as I personally suspect), and scum would then refuse to go through with voting me in the first place.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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Oh I forgot that quickhammering was a thing.-
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I'm not sure what was going through my head. I think I was thinking of like, physical voting, with three people in a room and a ballot box in the middle or something? wow, i'm out of it.
although i still think that i'm the lynchpin honestly so forcing someone to vote me is, i think, still an interesting plan-
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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I think that every person in this game has enough vigilance to snipe even the fastest vote/unvote-
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regardless, it is slightly bothering me that i seem to be the one taking initiative here when i was the one originally talking about waiting as a strategy (even if the thing i was taking initiative with was a bad idea)-
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northsidegal Survivor
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I think that if we set ourselves a deadline it would aid scumhunting.
Here's our deadline:
(expired on 2020-02-15 00:24:59)-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm thinking stuff through and typing a longer than average marathon post-
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northsidegal Survivor
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it's more lines of reasoning based on lynchpin stuff though so-
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i think i made a mistake this game in talking about that stuff too early but it was probably necessary to get the game moving at the time and right now i consider it a very low probability possibility that it actually negatively affected me this game-
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northsidegal Survivor
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Who, if you think RC is scum, do you think it's more likely that he has to lynch you, or me?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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probably overthinking the setup, but can you blame me in a game with two hard to read players like you twoIn post 133, RadiantCowbells wrote:i really don't understand what you have been thinking about this game.
cfj i think makes setups that are probably above my pay grade when it comes to breaking, but i'm trying to be clever nonetheless-
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such as?In post 135, RadiantCowbells wrote:when i think there's so many easier ways to read people in this game-
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northsidegal Survivor
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sure, i think on an objective level you've been townier this game. i think you being townier doesn't mean that you're necessarily town (and yes i would say that about anyone not just RC, it's more about Who then it is about you)
i guess i would say that what i'm doing is something like a precaution? i feel like i only stand to gain information from what i'm thinking-
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Who, if you don't vote me, I am going to vote you.-
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If I believe that RC is town, then I risk nothing by Who voting me. Even if I believe RC is scum, I believe RC's lynchpin would be me, and thus I risk nothing by Who voting me.
If Who is town who refuses to vote me then I will vote him, and this loses town the game. Thus, Who is being held hostage and forced to vote me if he is town. If Who is scum who refuses to vote me, I'm his lynchpin, I'll vote him, and town wins the game.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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Let me know if you follow this line of reasoning.
The deduction that I can have (and should have) the most confidence in this game is that, if RC is scum, his lynchpin is me.
I should be making a decision based on my most confident deduction. Typically, this would take the form of "X is scum" (probably followed by a vote), but in this case it's what I've just said. With that in mind, I should make my decision based on the idea that, if RC is scum, his lynchpin is me.
I ask Who to vote me.
If who is scum and his lynchpin is me, he'll refuse. If it's RC, he'll accept, and I won't get quickhammered.
If who is town, he accepts, and, if I am correct, I don't get quickhammered, because scum RC's lynchpin would be me.
We are then in the world of either Who is scum and his lynchpin is RC, or RC is scum and his lynchpin is me. (or, Who refused outright, in which case his lynchpin is me, in which case I probably just vote him)
This isn't a solved game, but I would consider it closer to one, and I would consider it a better move than directly voting someone myself.-
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urgh sthis game is sooooo stupid im just gonna vote who im tired othisIn post 147, RadiantCowbells wrote:you realize he's allowed to vote you right, just not hammer-
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i look like an idiot ajlkasjdrlkasdfajslkd f-
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