In post 6207, OkaPoka wrote:Setup wise, I am interested, what would you considered the ~ev of a setup like this to be? Not like "I think this is balanced" but I think this is 55/45 favoring x side etc.
EV is pretty much meaningless unless you can work out an optimal strategy for the setup, so with closed games it's pretty much not a thing.
With closed games you're more looking at the potential clears vs guilties, presumed mislims until scumwin, broken interactions, and comparing the setup to games that have previously been run with similar circumstances. While there are reviewers, like me, who will put things in % estimations for ease of use, that's not really a metric that has any real meaning. Honestly looking at the setup my gut tells me that town could have had a little less power given the nature of TM, and I probably would have made the BP a full BP instead of activated 2-shot while giving informed to a goon along with something net 0 to the other goon as a hint that vanilla wasn't a safe choice for a claim and to prevent unwanted setup based implications of VC being town. Still though, this is entirely within the range of what I'd approve as balanced for a closed large theme, and I don't play Normals often enough to know if they have a higher scumwin ratio.
There were 3 cleared-by-role players (Dann/jj/Dunn) and a further 0-3 clears from neap visits that didn't even need to be claimed by the neap (VT targeted by announcing Neapolitan can claim "Someone knows I'm town" the next day and the Neap flipping corroborates that entirely without outing them. VC and tracker weren't particularly likely to be helpful, but did give a slight chance for a guilty. Rolecop with 3 announcing roles was an odd choice, but not a bad one because scum needed to learn about the VC/Neap before massclaim.
