TM 2023 | Super Mario Bros Mafia | Game Over!

[Radical Rat]

@Mod
Does the Fire Flower grant two separate votes, or one vote that counts twice?

[Radical Rat]

It's safe to say I will be straight up ignoring the fire flower, since the only actual use of a doublevoter is balance considerations if scum has access to a doublevote and therefore it's garbage.

This is probably correct regardless, but I think a double hammer would be really funny

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Jingle

Kinda weird that you just rephrase my already asked questions and call it skipping beating around the bush.

[Radical Rat]

As an aside, I actually just saw the Mario Movie yesterday, so this being the theme is rather fortuitous

[Radical Rat]

I'd have assumed two simultaneous votes can create two simultaneous hammers, and further assumed that if that were not the case Cakez would clarify it when answering.

Doesn't really hurt to have that extra level of assurance, just the way you framed it struck me as peculiar

[Radical Rat]

The Fire Flower functions as a single double vote - it can be moved around but it cannot be split. The player with the power up may also choose to single vote like normal.

Yeah, in this case definitely not worth actually using. RIP D1 hero solve victory chances

[Radical Rat]

The Fire Flower functions as a single double vote - it can be moved around but it cannot be split. The player with the power up may also choose to single vote like normal.

Yeah, in this case definitely not worth actually using. RIP D1 hero solve victory chances

We should still probably give it to

someone

, right?

To what end? D1 reads generally aren't super great because... D1. If Scum gets it that's obviously bad, and if Town gets it there's a very high chance of it just doing more harm than good.

[Radical Rat]

I DID assume it was a traditional doublevote (Like it apparently is), but when you pointed out that it might actually serve a purpose, I felt getting the mech speak completely out of the way as quickly as possible was the right thing to do. What do you think about wgeurts?

I think they feel somewhat performative in their posting, but haven't drawn any alignment conclusions relating to that yet.

[Radical Rat]

I am also on team no one gets it

[Radical Rat]

Poetic.

UNVOTE:

I don't really like voting here anymore, but I don't know where else to go with it yet

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: CSF

Laying on the pocket a bit thick for so early on aren't you?

[Radical Rat]

Klick says he's townreading Adorable, Porkens, and Jingle so far.

Personally, I agree on Jingle, but need to see more from Adorable/Porkens

[Radical Rat]

I don't understand. Is the slash a typo or is it supposed to mean something?

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: CSF

Laying on the pocket a bit thick for so early on aren't you?

How do you think I've been pocketing?

I believe your defense of wgeurts is too strong for how early it is and likely an attempt to either curry favor or overextend for a buddy. I don't think you would be protecting a buddy from such a light push so early though, so I'm suspecting a white knight attempt

[Radical Rat]

Wgeurts, if you'll indulge my curiosity, how much of that reads wall was from you, and how much was workshopped by your team?

[Radical Rat]

Spoiler: This isn't actually about the game and normally I don't like to make a show of it, but it hit me particularly hard this time for some reason so... gender shit I guess, primarily @wgeurts

I don't mean this to sound accusatory, and obviously you're they/them too, so you get it to an extent, but. Genuine curiosity. Why was I referred to with he/him that whole time? I understand people mess up, and I do too, but it seems like it's been happening a lot to me lately (not just from you), and I don't really understand why, especially in this case where others on your list did get different pronouns assumed. Do I really give off masculine vibes so strongly?

I don't know, you don't really have to answer or apologize or anything if you don't want to I just. Feel kinda weird about it I guess. Usually better about letting it roll off, sorry.

[Radical Rat]

COME ON LETS GO

Um, actually, the lyrics are "COME ON IT'S TIME TO GO"

Lockscum

[Radical Rat]

Wgeurts, if you'll indulge my curiosity, how much of that reads wall was from you, and how much was workshopped by your team?

Peta I requested people help me look at as with the current gamestate sorting those two is most valuable. I also got given information on Adorable as I don't know how to deal with that slot, and neither does my team it seems. Everything else is purely my own thoughts.

The reason I ask is that while nothing in particular stands out as objectionable on its own, having such a comprehensive wall of opinions about every player (except Fate of course) so early on feels somewhat incredulous. Particularly it feels strange that you point out my reads as being too strong, even though I only actually have one read I'd consider to be anything more than a lean (CSF), inside of a wall post filled with nuanced opinions on everyone.

Just feels kinda like you felt obligated to have thoughts on everyone instead of them flowing naturally

[Radical Rat]

The reason I ask is that while nothing in particular stands out as objectionable on its own, having such a comprehensive wall of opinions about every player (except Fate of course) so early on feels somewhat incredulous. Particularly it feels strange that you point out my reads as being too strong, even though I only actually have one read I'd consider to be anything more than a lean (CSF), inside of a wall post filled with nuanced opinions on everyone.

Just feels kinda like you felt obligated to have thoughts on everyone instead of them flowing naturally

You evidently never had the pleasure of playing with me when I was active. That's how I play the game, I've got a spreadsheet I note people's thought progressions, votes, and go back to once people start flipping so I can find associative-tells and patterns. Cerb at minimum can vouch, that's just how I roll.

As for your reads, strength is relative to the timeframe of the game, early on a relatively intense lean can be pretty strong. Your progression on Jingle is acceptably town-minded, your reasons for disliking CSF are sufficiently far-flung that in the given boardstate it just doesn't seem like something scum would do right then. The way you post isn't with hesitancy either, you just slap CSF with your vote and accuse him, that's what I mean by strong, intensity may be a better alternative.

A spreadsheet is something I always think about doing but never follow through on. Very interested in watching it develop then.

[Radical Rat]

HPE is correct that this mostly lines up with its towngame. Though I don't believe I've ever played with it as scum before

[Radical Rat]

Eh, I think if it were something actually important Adorable would have been pushing back harder against us abandoning the power up.

[Radical Rat]

Cerberus is not passing the vibe check for me.

I don't have better words to articulate the feeling but the feeling isn't good.

[Radical Rat]

Simple majority means half + 1.

You were probably thinking of plurality

[Radical Rat]

I think Fate is probably Town actually. I definitely see why people are iffy on 'em, but they strike me as being genuine, and very self interested. Almost like a third party actually, but since that doesn't exist here, I'm thinking Town

[Radical Rat]

Because they're right

[Radical Rat]

the hell is a mislim

don't tell me the site did away with the word lynch and joined cancel culture

It's not "cancel culture," but yeah we don't use that word anymore. Most people have switched to a more generic 'elimination' often shortened to lim. You may also see 'yeet' semi-frequently.

ELo and MeLo are the common replacements for LyLo/MyLo, and E-1 instead of L-1, etc.

[Radical Rat]

Because they're right

What was genuine about their posting?

They're emotional and reactive. Lots of stream of consciousness type stuff. Their posts are not being deliberated upon, or at least don't look it

[Radical Rat]

I don't think that posts being thought out and deliberated upon are inherently scummy, or even not genuine.

I DO think it's easier to fake when you post that way, and that it's harder to fake the more fluid and spontaneous stuff, but that doesn't automatically mean I think all of a deliberate posting style must be fake or scummy.


In Jingle's case specifically, I did think it was odd that he essentially restated my own question and framed it as avoiding thread bloat, and expressed mild suspicion at that. But I believed his explanation of why he considered it to be a unique question was reasonable, and his general position regarding power up usage was pro-Town. He was the first to suggest that no one get it, and as a double vote is far more beneficial to scum than threatening, even if it's not a scum player who receives it, he would have had no real reason to oppose it being awarded.

In theory he could have fabricated that stance specifically to appear more Townie, but in the absence of anything that strikes me as actually scummy to conflict with it, I'm fine townreading him.

[Radical Rat]

I wasn't in favor of the change when it was first brought up either, so I get it, though I did eventually end up supporting it. There's a big thread about it somewhere in probably site ideas where it was quite thoroughly discussed before being implemented, might help with understanding where it came from better.

But that's a bit beyond the scope of the game we're playing now.

[Radical Rat]

Also Note...

-This setup is confirmed to be 8

Town

vs 2

Mafia.

[Radical Rat]

For that to be the case, it would mean Fate's hypothetical partner is someone with a teammate on your list of people who may know you, right?

Which, skimming over the team list could only be petapan.

I've had brewing suspicions on him for a while now, mostly because early game he seemed to be actively avoiding doing content, so I'll bite there. I don't necessarily think you're right, but peta being actually scummy to me and doubling as a sanity check on the very stylish hat sounds good.

VOTE: petapan

[Radical Rat]

Which, skimming over the team list could only be petapan.

Teams that would probably have someone who knows I OMGUS townreads, in order:

Hyper Aggressive Jingle Ballers
Frog Friends
Shadow Syndicate
Perfectly Balanced Alisae with an exploit in that FB is trivially manipulable
Average TM Enjoyers
Klicken Chickens
Studies
Cripsy Puffs

... Uh, I just realized DGB is on Fate's team. I don't know how I missed that, but DGB and I have actually played together a reasonable amount.

I based that conclusion on your given list of Shea/LLD/mastina.

Frog Friends and Shadow Syndicate aren't in the game, leaving LLD, who is in Polymewl with peta.

With the expanded list it isn't the nice hedgy elimination I'd thought it could be, but eh, still think peta's scum. Unless people want to join me on CSF

[Radical Rat]

first: I just noticed your title is ring a bell so my pun has gone down significantly in value and i feel bad.

Now
All theses connections being made to my supposed 'scumbuddy'

gonna look real silly later on. I know i'm old fashioned but why not save that talk for after I die? save a lot of hassle and a lot better than "vote petapan because hes fates most likely scumbuddy" or whatever the hells going on

look I'll level with you Jingle because I don't want you spinning your wheels in the dirt if you are in fact town.

I don't know you, your name has symbolic and secret meaning to me, so my softspot lies therein. Now my slight townread on you based on your posting prior to my entry was tantamount to a RVS early read and a desire to get you to stop ignoring my posts.

My thinking was more peta's probably scum regardless of affiliation with you, but if my read happened to be wrong, it would alleviate Jingle's paranoia.

[Radical Rat]

To clarify regarding HPE and the whole playstyle thing, since my name is getting dropped a lot here...

I only have a couple games experience with it, and unless I'm mistaken it was Town in both, and I do not consider myself to be particularly good at meta reads, and in fact try to avoid using meta as a primary basis for reads where possible anyway, so this is explicitly NOT me saying it must be Town because of this...

BUT I have witnessed and participated in it getting mislimmed for similar patterns of behavior before, so it isn't a scumtell or anything.

On a personal level, I lean Town on it. I'll borrow Klick's words because he expressed why better than I could when I last mentioned it, but he said HPE doesn't appear to care about how its posts look, and... yeah that tracks with the vibe I'm feeling.

[Radical Rat]

For that to be the case, it would mean Fate's hypothetical partner is someone with a teammate on your list of people who may know you, right?

Which, skimming over the team list could only be petapan.

I've had brewing suspicions on him for a while now, mostly because early game he seemed to be actively avoiding doing content, so I'll bite there. I don't necessarily think you're right, but peta being actually scummy to me and doubling as a sanity check on the very stylish hat sounds good.

VOTE: petapan

i don't think i was "actively avoiding doing content" at all, even if i was pretty reticent to state conclusions

also, you don't think jingle is necessarily right with the paranoia on fate being informed by his teammate about how to play around jingle, but are willing to vote me to test it???

(ftr i have no concrete memories of playing with bingle since coming out of retirement - we might have played in a datisi hosted secret hitler game but that isn't mafia and is a marathon game so is totally irrelevant, i have ~no useful meta on how he plays)

You made a lot of naked votes with no actual elaboration, partly during RVS, but even then the point of RVS is to generate content, not JUST vote randomly.

Let that suspicion sit for a while to see if you ever got better and... not really. It's picked up a bit now that you're actually in danger though, so let's keep that danger looming a bit, eh?

[Radical Rat]

Let that suspicion sit for a while to see if you ever got better and... not really. It's picked up a bit now that you're actually in danger though, so let's keep that danger looming a bit, eh?

hey, this really made me angry, so if you could not talk to me this way ever that would be great

I'm sorry, I'm actually confused here. Is it just because it's too theatrical?

[Radical Rat]

Let that suspicion sit for a while to see if you ever got better and... not really. It's picked up a bit now that you're actually in danger though, so let's keep that danger looming a bit, eh?

hey, this really made me angry, so if you could not talk to me this way ever that would be great

I'm sorry, I'm actually confused here. Is it just because it's too theatrical?

i took a single day off from the game because i was feeling sick and to have it implied i was trying to lurk out and only started posting due to getting voted by you is really insulting

Okay, I understand now. I'm sorry I portrayed it that way, I should have been more clear.

I was referring more to post quality than quantity though. Before your wagon happened, you weren't really taking stances on things, it all felt very non-committal. Now it doesn't. I don't hold being sick for a day against you, but there has been a dramatic shift in the content of your posting before and after the formation of a wagon, and that's what I'm referring to here

[Radical Rat]

Let that suspicion sit for a while to see if you ever got better and... not really. It's picked up a bit now that you're actually in danger though, so let's keep that danger looming a bit, eh?

hey, this really made me angry, so if you could not talk to me this way ever that would be great

I'm sorry, I'm actually confused here. Is it just because it's too theatrical?

i took a single day off from the game because i was feeling sick and to have it implied i was trying to lurk out and only started posting due to getting voted by you is really insulting

Okay, I understand now. I'm sorry I portrayed it that way, I should have been more clear.

I was referring more to post quality than quantity though. Before your wagon happened, you weren't really taking stances on things, it all felt very non-committal. Now it doesn't. I don't hold being sick for a day against you, but there has been a dramatic shift in the content of your posting before and after the formation of a wagon, and that's what I'm referring to here

What did you think of his latest catch-up?

It's mostly fine, though there's a lot of waffling on HPE, and it is such a contrast to the early game that it has me worried.

[Radical Rat]

Contrast to early game when there was less content to comment on?

This is true, and yet the feeling persists

[Radical Rat]

Yeah this one is waiting on wgeurt's readwall on everyone else before it even THINKS about anything along the lines of a Cerb or peta vote.

Do you not have reads of your own?

[Radical Rat]

And yes, I know you have expressed reads prior to now, including a scumread on wgeurts, but I don't see why you need wgeurts to post reads before addressing other players

[Radical Rat]

Well, the Fabled Wgeurts Readwall will likely get the discussion train rolling again, but in the meantime you could always try probing others yourself. Don't think CSF or RR have really posted anything like read lists yet? Would like to see that personally.

Jingle, wgeurts
Adorable, Fate
HPE
---Town Line---
Porkens
Cerb, peta
CSF

I'd be theoretically okay eliminating anyone below the Town line, though I am hesitant on Porkens since CSF is the one mainly pushing right now, in addition to the growing probability of replacement.

[Radical Rat]

It's mostly because of the early wgeurts defense still. Since then you've looked plausibly town, but so far that's the only moment in this game I can point to as someone actively doing something scummy, whereas everyone else in my lim pool just hasn't been doing Townie things.

As for my team, honestly we haven't been discussing as thoroughly or frequently as we probably should be, but early on Klick said you were pinging him as well, and then Bella's recently said you look Town to her.

[Radical Rat]

It's mostly because of the early wgeurts defense still. Since then you've looked plausibly town, but so far that's the only moment in this game I can point to as someone actively doing something scummy, whereas everyone else in my lim pool just hasn't been doing Townie things.

As for my team, honestly we haven't been discussing as thoroughly or frequently as we probably should be, but early on Klick said you were pinging him as well, and then Bella's recently said you look Town to her.

Did you see 134? This feels like a fairly underdeveloped read for this stage of the game

It is very underdeveloped, and that's why I haven't really been pushing super hard. I don't often do well without flips to help me read things.

And yeah, I saw 134. It definitely does not read that way to me, but I didn't see much point in going "nuh-uh" back and forth

[Radical Rat]

It's mostly because of the early wgeurts defense still. Since then you've looked plausibly town, but so far that's the only moment in this game I can point to as someone actively doing something scummy, whereas everyone else in my lim pool just hasn't been doing Townie things.

As for my team, honestly we haven't been discussing as thoroughly or frequently as we probably should be, but early on Klick said you were pinging him as well, and then Bella's recently said you look Town to her.

Did you catch my thoughts wrt CSF's push on cerb being probtown?

No, I didn't see that one, point me to it?

[Radical Rat]

Ehhh, if anything I'd expect scum to be more likely to bus a missing partner than an active one. I've had to do it before, though I might be more inclined to wait on a proper V/LA...

[Radical Rat]

Sorry, I was mostly talking about the very end of the post, RR.

The optics thing? I don't know. I see people push absentee slots often enough that I don't think it would actually be a problem for scum, though I can see it being something scum worries about regardless.

I don't think I know CSF well enough to try to get in her head about it.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Cerberus v666

I believe that's E-1.

[Radical Rat]

UNVOTE:

In all likelihood this is going to end up on Porkens, but I will be doing a think about it first.

[Radical Rat]

UNVOTE:

Hmmm

What changed your mind before the claim?

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Porkens

Klick and Bella both think I'm wrong about CSF, and none of us are liking Porkens, with that being my only reservation.

[Radical Rat]

This one would rather not eliminate Porkens when he's finally starting to show investment in the game and has shown intent to do a proper reread.

He explicitly expressed NOT having intent to do that

[Radical Rat]

It does really need to be Porkens here.

Cerb's claim is at least partly verifiable, wgeurts is off the table for me, and while I personally would be okay with CSF or peta, my team is very firmly not.

Porkens is the only scummy slot left, I'm not moving.

[Radical Rat]

Initially wgeurts worried me because they were far more thorough than I anticipated from early game, but that was pointed out to be normal for them, which I have no reason to doubt, and all of the actual logic was reasonable there.

Then the whole deal with "catching" HPE looked very genuine to me. I don't see scum faking pronoun confusion to make a push like that, and the fervor behind it seemed like actual excitement.

I do share the frustration with the extended bouts of silence, but when wgeurts is here and playing they look Town the whole time.

[Radical Rat]

I get better later in the day

It's about as late in the day as it's gonna get

[Radical Rat]

@peta

Klick says to tell you not to tie your perspective to Fate on account of Fate being incredibly wrong

[Radical Rat]

Jingle: Why do you think a universe exists where scum!me quick hammers to end the day? Literally part of why I don't vote D1 except to avoid no lim days is to make it last forever and get maximum content. Also...hmm. Had a thought, not the time to discuss in case I mess with whatever people are trying.

Fate, what is your porkens alternative? I agree that they are essentially policy at this point, which, while dumb, is better than rand.

I'm voting wgeurts, I'd be down for Adorable PREFERABLY and then I'd settle on HPE for principle

How is settling on HPE for principle different than Porkens, which you call a policy vote?

[Radical Rat]

Porkens is actually Luigi, who is also a 3-shot JOAT, but can jump slightly higher

[Radical Rat]

So.... who was it that said Porkens flip was low info? Because I think things are starting to look pretty juicy personally

[Radical Rat]

shit for Porkens alignment

Checkmate, Atheists

[Radical Rat]

Sorry, I'm feeling memey today.

But I do genuinely and wholeheartedly endorse the Porkens lim at this point.

[Radical Rat]

toad, vanilla town,

SWING YOUR ARMS
FROM SIDE TO SIDE

Sample VT PM was a Goomba. While it isn't entirely inconceivable there could be two different VT flavors, this very well may be a scumslip

[Radical Rat]

Cerb, what'd you do last night?

[Radical Rat]

So, I find it incredibly unlikely that Porkens had a pure wagon.

Removing CSF and myself, leaves peta, Fate, HPE, and Adorable.

Fate I'm pretty damn sure is Town at this point. peta I WAS coming around on, but not sure anymore. HPE and Adorable have been gentle townleans up to this point.

So I'll be ISOing people later, but today's elimination should be in that pool for sure

[Radical Rat]

Cerb, what'd you do last night?

Something productive.

If nothing in the game occurs to prompt me doing so sooner, I'll likely share in ~96 hours, to see if there's anything more that can be gleaned from the information I have.

I would actually like to know this before we assign the power up, which only has a 48 hour deadline.

This one's juicy enough to be worth assigning, and if you've got information that could influence that decision, I'd like to hear it

[Radical Rat]

Well toward the end of yesterday, Fate being really worked up about us discussing VT flavor is +Town, in addition to me already townreading them for the unaligned vibes I get from 'em.

But in that case Fate was trying to prevent people from slipping their status as either VT or PR to scum, and while it's a relatively easy thing to take, I'd also think scum would rather let people out that information.

I don't actually think there was significant information at stake, because of the nature of Goomba VT being public knowledge, all scum learns on a Porkens townflip is that everyone who expressed skepticism there isn't a Toad flavored VT specifically, and not that we aren't VTs at all, but Fate being conscious of and caring about it regardless nets them Town points in my eyes.

[Radical Rat]

Given multiple different VT flavors, and multiple instances of at least one VT flavor, there is a chance that we can imply scum pools based on symmetry.

I'm a todd.

Somehow it didn't even occur to me to unvote and attempt to verify the claim before allowing a hammer to happen, and now I'm feeling very silly

[Radical Rat]

also, which VT? This is potentially important.

the same flavor as the one we killed day 1

This is a scumclaim. You were JUST talking about how you thought Porkens claim was incredibly suspicious, but Mafia wouldn't have had any way to know Toad VTs were a thing, and you existing confirms they exist, which SHOULD have cleared Porkens for you.

But before that we need the power up sorted, and I want it. Reasons to follow.

[Radical Rat]

the possibility crossed my mind that it was an intentional misdirect on the part of the mod but also porkens wasn't playing the game and killing players like that is +EV

This post does not come from someone who is also a Toad.

[Radical Rat]

Anyway, I need the power up, and here's why.

I'm Donkey Kong, and I'm a rolestopper. Basically a reverse roleblocker if you're not familiar. If I also can block things on myself, I cannot be interfered with and that guarantees that two of us (myself, and my target) are fully protected for at least one night.

VOTE: Power up: Radical Rat

[Radical Rat]

I thought Cerb was softing he actually had a result

[Radical Rat]

Cerb is softing that he has a conditional result, thus would like time to figure out what it means. A role that should get a result but didn't would make sense in that context.

Fair enough. Either way, he needs to claim sooner rather than later

[Radical Rat]

Right then, that's all fine from me then.

I targeted Cerb, thinking that as the only PR claim he'd be pretty high on the list of targets for scum

[Radical Rat]

the possibility crossed my mind that it was an intentional misdirect on the part of the mod but also porkens wasn't playing the game and killing players like that is +EV

This post does not come from someone who is also a Toad.

how about the part where i voted him immediately after the flavor claim

I hadn't gone back to check that yet, but yes that's really bad too

[Radical Rat]

Your flavor is generic AND a vanilla role, which are usually interchangeable. It makes absolutely no sense to be suspicious if someone matches your vanilla claim unless it's an actual unique character, which neither Toad nor Goomba are.

It also makes no sense to assume scum would be informed about all of the possible flavors that exist, and the thing with Townies cross confirming each other only actually works once, and even then it's contingent on what the distribution actually is.

Maybe if the claim happened D2 instead of D1 an argument could be made for a role and/or flavor cop... but with all of the information we had, Porkens claim should have AT LEAST given you pause, if not 100% cleared him.

[Radical Rat]

I actually (almost) exclusively play themes.

I have seen VTs have different flavors before, but usually only in the context of being named characters.

[Radical Rat]

Your flavor is generic AND a vanilla role, which are usually interchangeable. It makes absolutely no sense to be suspicious if someone matches your vanilla claim unless it's an actual unique character, which neither Toad nor Goomba are.

It also makes no sense to assume scum would be informed about all of the possible flavors that exist, and the thing with Townies cross confirming each other only actually works once, and even then it's contingent on what the distribution actually is.

Maybe if the claim happened D2 instead of D1 an argument could be made for a role and/or flavor cop... but with all of the information we had, Porkens claim should have AT LEAST given you pause, if not 100% cleared him.

no, because the idea that VTs could confirm each other by their flavor

would be horrifically bad game design

i'm done talking to you, you clearly have no clue what you're talking about

If indeed you are Town, then that "horrifically bad game design" is the world we're living in, so take it up with the mod instead of just immediately resorting to insulting me.

In the more likely world where you're scum though... we don't actually have any evidence suggesting that kind of confirmation is possible yet, so this argument just doesn't matter.

[Radical Rat]

@SirCakez Can the tanuki suit power up be used with regular action?

I already asked via PM and it can.

[Radical Rat]

Not having that knowledge at daystart is why I didn't immediately jump on the powerup like I did later

[Radical Rat]

Your flavor is generic AND a vanilla role, which are usually interchangeable. It makes absolutely no sense to be suspicious if someone matches your vanilla claim unless it's an actual unique character, which neither Toad nor Goomba are.

It also makes no sense to assume scum would be informed about all of the possible flavors that exist, and the thing with Townies cross confirming each other only actually works once, and even then it's contingent on what the distribution actually is.

Maybe if the claim happened D2 instead of D1 an argument could be made for a role and/or flavor cop... but with all of the information we had, Porkens claim should have AT LEAST given you pause, if not 100% cleared him.

no, because the idea that VTs could confirm each other by their flavor

would be horrifically bad game design

i'm done talking to you, you clearly have no clue what you're talking about

If indeed you are Town, then that "horrifically bad game design" is the world we're living in, so take it up with the mod instead of just immediately resorting to insulting me.

In the more likely world where you're scum though... we don't actually have any evidence suggesting that kind of confirmation is possible yet, so this argument just doesn't matter.

As an amendment, I did forget Jingle's also claimed Toad, so unless you're both scum together (unlikely imo), we are indeed in a world where what you're calling horrifically bad game design is just a fact. Reconcile that however you must.

[Radical Rat]

here's a followup question: if all the VTs in the game have the same flavor (which seems likely?), do you think the mod would make the scumteam unaware of this fact?

In this particular game, yes.

I do not believe the mod would make the scumteam EXCLUSIVELY aware of this fact. In most games, if there's a generic VT flavor, that's public knowledge. I have never seen a game where ONLY the scumteam knows what the VT flavor is, and especially in this case where the VT flavor contradicts the public example, it would be kinda shitty to inform scum of this, but Town has to either mislim someone or have multiple VTs out themselves to figure it out.

[Radical Rat]

I am somewhat cooling down on you though, because I can see where you're coming from in thinking it was unique given that contradiction.

I am still NOT happy about that, because I know at the very least I'd have moved if you or Jingle had said something in time, but it isn't the hard scumclaim I initially saw it as.

[Radical Rat]

but Town has to either mislim someone or have multiple VTs out themselves to figure it out.

Considering Porkens flipped Toad and now peta and (presumably) Jingle have claimed Toad... It seems that every VT actually literally is a Toad.

That is how things are looking, yes.

[Radical Rat]

Fwiw, I will not be voting to power up rat. This is not related to my thoughts on rats alignment.

Why not? Now that I've claimed, I'm basically useless without it

[Radical Rat]

I suppose I can wait. But I can't really think of anyone that would be better for it, since I can do the same job.

VOTE: Adorable

[Radical Rat]

If we test out my loved passive I will be the 5th vote so that I can unvote afterwards.

Your time to shine

[Radical Rat]

UNVOTE:

[Radical Rat]

Actually it occurs to me that we maybe shouldn't have done that yet. But it's probably fine

[Radical Rat]

Depends on who the other scum is. But I don't expect that's what happened anyway, so it's whatever

[Radical Rat]

Reminder that we ARE on a pretty strict time schedule here.

At this point, I cannot imagine a claim Fate could make that would make it so that I shouldn't have the power up.

As it stands now, we have the potential to have two people protected: My target, and whoever gets the suit. Trouble is, since my claim is known now, I am highly likely to be either blocked or killed, which means that second protection isn't reliable. Having two people essentially guaranteed to be safe is just objectively better, is it not?

[Radical Rat]

I am not confident on the existence of a Strongman, but it is true that we have a strangely high amount of protective power claimed right now...

@Adorable
Could you confirm how your bodyguard interacts with protection on you? If you were to have the Tanuki or a similar effect, and the person you target is attempted to be killed, do you still die or does it count as though they'd targeted you directly?

[Radical Rat]

Normal Bodyguard explicitly doesn’t redirect the kill so a successful bodyguard attempt should kill adorable even with your or tanuki interference.

Also, powerups are explicitly not part of a role and so would not be inherited by a backup.

This is my suspicion as well, but I would like explicit confirmation regardless

[Radical Rat]

Though the backup point is somewhat irrelevant now

[Radical Rat]

The latter is mod confirmed, the former assumes adorable is a normal bodyguard which is a thing I can’t ask the mod directly but wasn’t pursuing atm because it’s honestly a non issue imo. Adorable dying through the use of her ability is a good thing.

It's important because we can use that to potentially differentiate between the intended kill targets.

[Radical Rat]

You did it right, though you're voting for the wrong person.

I will hammer HPE if it becomes necessary though, I agree that it would be second choice.

[Radical Rat]

I'm a lot more worried about a roleblocker than a strongman, because if a strongman exists, then the Tanuki's basically just a red herring, and me being a rolestopper instead of a straight doctor implies non-lethal interference exists.

Cerb claiming a Roleblocker is quite interesting to me in that regard though...

[Radical Rat]

If we line things up correctly, every single PR claim can have some sort of protection tonight.

Where that chain falls apart can be used to work toward a proper solve, or scum'll be cowards and just shoot a VT claim

[Radical Rat]

Actually what I had in mind would NOT make it completely safe to shoot a VT... unless a PR claim is lying

[Radical Rat]

Wait yes it would. Nevermind, I'm getting myself mixed up

[Radical Rat]

Okay I think it might actually be best to give to HPE after all.

I have reservations I want to go over with my team first though.

[Radical Rat]

Unfortunately we don't have the luxury of waiting on Fate due to the V/LA not pausing the timer.

I do already have my suspicions on what they'll claim, which I won't be sharing for obvious reasons, but am bearing in mind

[Radical Rat]

I may not have the luxury of team input either since I can't guarantee waking up on time tomorrow...

[Radical Rat]

Probably best to not discuss your tracking target. You just do what your heart says is right

[Radical Rat]

VT Toad

Catching up tomorrow, sorry for my appalling absence everyone

Wgeurts already claimed

[Radical Rat]

You're probably right about scum in both. Which is why you shouldn't claim preference any more, so they don't get to make an informed decision on who gets to commit the kill

[Radical Rat]

When you say "nothing happened" does that mean you received an affirmative result that there was no activity?

[Radical Rat]

Then something's gone wrong somewhere, or you're lying

[Radical Rat]

Me targeting Cerb means no one should have resolved any other actions on him

[Radical Rat]

It says all actions targeting the player, so I assume that includes Town, yes.

I also believe that a proper negative result should be distinct from a no result.

[Radical Rat]

But that's something you'll have to ask Cakez about

[Radical Rat]

I'm not 1v1ing anything yet

[Radical Rat]

If anything my instinct here is actually to look at Cerb...

[Radical Rat]

I do think it would be really funny if the green brother is Town and the red brother is Scum

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Power up: HighPrincessErinys

Haven't heard back from my team, but this somewhat eases my worries ironically

[Radical Rat]

Working theory is that Cerb truthfully claimed JOAT, but lied about which ability he used.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Cerberus v666

Me - DK, Rolestopper. Targeted Cerb last night.
Cerb - Mario, JOAT with Bulletproof/Roleblocker/Vanilla Cop. Claims to have a not Vanilla result on Adorable
Adorable - Peach, Loved Bodyguard
HPE - Daisy, Universal Backup, now Even-night Tracker
Fate - Luigi, Ghost Hunter, detects "paranormal activity. Claims a negative result on Cerb
Everyone else - Toad, VT


And then we gave HPE the commute shot to protect the Tracker shot from interference tonight.

Notably, Fate's claim of receiving a result and my claim of targeting Cerb are incompatible. I townread Fate for now though, so I suspect I was interfered with instead. And the overwhelming amount of Town power claimed makes the idea that all of us are Town unlikely. My guess is that Cerb is probably at least mostly telling the truth about his role, but lied about using the vanilla cop, and roleblocked me instead. Adorable had already claimed by the time Cerb did, in addition to a degree of softing prior, so it's an easy lie to tell

[Radical Rat]

Scum must have a roleblocker or redirector of some kind, unless you believe Fate to be scum.

I do not believe Fate to be scum, so that setup doesn't work for me.

[Radical Rat]

Scum must have a roleblocker or redirector of some kind, unless you believe Fate to be scum.

I do not believe Fate to be scum, so that setup doesn't work for me.

This is not a gotcha but it IS funny to me you'd openly say this when the question is kinda "Is it RR or Fate?". Either way it's not technically unfeasible you were roleblocked and that there's another roleblocking role in the setup, but this one also just

does not

like the vibes of the situation surrounding you and Fate's claimed actions. There is a very realistic chance you're scum here.
VOTE: Radical Rat

If Fate's scum, they're PROBABLY not going to make the claim that they did unless they wanted to force the 1v1.

If I'm scum, I'm a lot more stubborn about taking that power up, and I wouldn't make such an easily falsifiable claim.

Cerb has claimed to have two roles that vastly benefit scum over Town (roleblocker and Vanilla Cop), and while BP is an odd singleball scum power, there IS another power up coming tomorrow, and my money's on a vig shot. On top of that, his alleged target was questionable given Adorable had already not super subtly softed some kind of PR, yet stated he'd interpret a vanilla result as Town if it happened.

I cannot fathom what you're seeing that makes you blindly trust his result.

[Radical Rat]

IF scum knew about the Toad thing in advance, then everyone who commented on that discrepancy already essentially claimed PR, which is what Fate was yelling about yesterday.

At the time I thought firstly that Porkens was just scum guessing due to not paying attention, and that even if he was Town, they wouldn't ALL be Toads, so I didn't properly assess that risk at the time. But if scum had advance knowledge, or just assumed after the flip, then there would have been no real need to PR hunt

[Radical Rat]

Speaking of E-1 on Cerb

[Radical Rat]

I do think Cerb should be allowed to at least speak before anyone hammers. I don't see my mind being changed, but no need to rush at this point.

wgeurts catch up looks very Townie, probably about where I'd be landing if I weren't me

[Radical Rat]

Sure seems like it's a bit later than 7 MST, and no sign of Cerberus

[Radical Rat]

Cerb, while you're here I'd like you to talk about your check a bit.

You said before that you assumed Adorable would only softclaim as Town if she were pulling an NK bait gambit, and that's why you checked her.

Has the knowledge of her being loved changed this thinking for you?

[Radical Rat]

@Cerbs

: As outed JOAT, why didn't you use BP?

Shhh, I was getting to that

[Radical Rat]

I'd say ISO either peta or HPE next, though if you're planning on doing the whole list eventually it's not super important what the order is.

Now then, personally I find Adorable's claim to gel pretty well with wanting a double vote specifically, especially given it was a teammate's suggestion. While a hypothetical scum!loved would have similar motivation, I don't think it'd be worth making a show of it when you already kinda have the guaranteed safety net of a partner.

But of course that wasn't known at the time you would have submitted your action, which leads to my follow-up though Jingle beat me to the punch somewhat.

I was also going to ask why you'd opt for using a relatively low-power investigative over the BP when you were the only properly claimed PR going into the night. And your answer to that was interesting, and not what I expected. Why did you think you'd be on the chopping block today? Why were you so confident scum wouldn't shoot someone claiming to have both investigative and protective power, with an elimination attempt that already fell through once?

[Radical Rat]

Sorry for not quoting, I'm on mobile and quote surgery's a pain, still waiting on them to fix the button pop up thing, but anyway.

CSF would have been where I turned my gaze today if she hadn't died. I was entertaining a CSF/peta scumteam going into the night, but obviously that isn't possible anymore. I was at somewhat of a loss at daystart, so defaulted to a PoE within the Porkens wagon, peta pinged me really hard with the Toad thing, though I've somewhat backed down on that after explanations.

And now I'm mostly focused on figuring out what happened between my action and Fate's. And all signs are pointing to you here

[Radical Rat]

Got it with regards to the CSF situation - does CSF town preclude peta scum then, to you?

It does not. I didn't think they were exclusively scum together, it was just a potential solve in my head. At this moment, I'm not really sure where I'm at with peta. He sounds plausibly Town, but that's really about all I can say in his favor.

Also realizing I forgot to answer the question about fluidity equaling Town, and I'd say not necessarily, just as rigidity doesn't necessarily equal scum. Both make me lean in those directions, but it's not a hard rule and very dependent on the individual and the situation.

[Radical Rat]

I doubt Fate has actually asked the right questions about how their ability works if the claim is true, and I also have severe doubts that the mod would confirm whether or not an ability which has returned a "failure to detect" type result was stopped by something. Fate, even as town, is a liar who is not above doing so to get the results he's pushing for. *shrug*

Do you have a game you can point to where Fate has done something like that? Because I'm not really willing to entertain the idea of someone being Town and deliberately lying about mod interactions otherwise.

And I do think that there's a noteworthy difference between a negative result and no result. You wouldn't expect a roleblocked Cop to get an innocent result, and even for things like Tracker/Watcher, "Your target did not visit/was not visited by anyone" implies a success of the action. And at the very least I would expect a mod to say if a negative result would appear the same as a failed action, even though in that case they wouldn't say which happened.

[Radical Rat]

I mean, I've lied as Town myself before, I get that much.

But this is... well beyond the scope of what I'd expect in that case.

[Radical Rat]

Spoiler:

I'm Luigi, Ghost Hunter

I can detect if paranormal activity happens around a target. None happened around Cerberus last night

Therefore RR is at the very least not Ghost.


WHICH IM GUESSING means the scumteam is King Boo and Bowser. Would be very surprised if not the case, so my role is either a red herring useless thing or confirms non ghosts.


So yeah

Do your dirty thing Jingle. I expect great things, it's not for everyone I pass up an opportunity to fake claim as town

When you say "nothing happened" does that mean you received an affirmative result that there was no activity?

I was confirmed my action resolved and that I did not detect any paranormal activity

Then something's gone wrong somewhere, or you're lying

Me targeting Cerb means no one should have resolved any other actions on him

Well I don't think I can quote mod communication so I'm paraphrasing

It didn't say explicitly my action resolved or went through

But it said that I didn't detect any paranormal activity

Which is different than the 'no result's I'd expect if I was RBd or something


Does your role stop bodyguards and town actions and everything also?

Watcher usually resolves last so it can y'know watch things

So maybe you resolve right before me to stop everything above the chain

It says all actions targeting the player, so I assume that includes Town, yes.

I also believe that a proper negative result should be distinct from a no result.

But that's something you'll have to ask Cakez about

K I'll pm him, but RR I don't know what shenanigans are around but don't 1v1 me or anything drastic while I'm vla ok

Like I don't think as scum you'd out yourself in this way to 1v1 me, and since I got to go last as scum my fakeclaim would be solid LIKE CERBERUS HERE WHO CLAIMED AFTER ADORABLE

I'm not 1v1ing anything yet

If anything my instinct here is actually to look at Cerb...

Mod confirmed my action went through

VOTE: Cerberus I'll leave this here

Here's the full interaction from Fate claiming the result to claiming to have confirmed with the mod.

The first post is interpreting the result as a soft inno on me, which means Fate did see where I claimed to have targeted you, and chose to claim results anyway.
The questioning around resolution order or if I only block scum actions is strange, but seems to come from a place of genuinely figuring out why they have results.
Me telling them to ask directly about whether they'd receive the same message if blocked was an opportunity for Fate to back down from the conflict, and they did the opposite.

Unless Fate has a history of just pulling this kind of thing out of their ass, I'm not seeing this as a possible lying Town situation. Either Fate is telling the truth, which is how it looks to me, or Fate's lying as scum.

[Radical Rat]

I mean we gave the commute to the tracker, so there should in theory be no need for Adorable to bodyguard it?

[Radical Rat]

To that end, Adorable should be targeting me, not you.

Though I'd rather her not explicitly announce her plans regardless.

[Radical Rat]

Actually I guess it's somewhat interchangeable, depends on what scum decides to do and what power they have left

[Radical Rat]

Either way, it shouldn't be announced

[Radical Rat]

If RR is town then I suspect Fate is going to keep on lying and I don't trust this play at all. For RR to be town, then Fate shouldn't have gotten a result.

Or that one of us was interfered with in some way.

I could have been directly roleblocked or redirected, Fate couldn't have been directly roleblocked but could have been redirected still.

Right now the most likely explanation given that Fate has little motivation to lie, and all of the interactions around the result look genuine, is that I was roleblocked.

[Radical Rat]

it sounds like it makes someone an ascetic

Yeah, basically.

[Radical Rat]

how would that even work if RR targeted Adorable who bodyguards the NK???

LIKE


WUT

We had this conversation earlier and Adorable would still die in this case because scum did not target her, and therefore did not have their role stopped

[Radical Rat]

I guess a better explanation than turns someone ascetic is turns someone into a reflexive roleblocker.

[Radical Rat]

I guess a better explanation than turns someone ascetic is turns someone into a reflexive roleblocker.

ok would it work through a strongarm since it is 'stopping' the strongarm role? or

I haven't explicitly asked, but presumably not since strongman pierces through a normal roleblocker.

I DID explicitly ask about PGO last night though, and was told that everyone who visits would still die, but their abilities would have no effect on the target.

[Radical Rat]

we're mostly fucked if cerb is town, but we could at least no elim to get some more info and make me vs. Rat a decent enough showdown.

But yeah I agree no way all three of us are town at the very least

pedit: including you i guess

pedit2: that does make RR concerningly less town doesn't it......


DOESNT IT

After all we've been through together?

[Radical Rat]

how good is RR at scum, anybody can answer

I like to think I'm pretty good at it. Better than to fakeclaim something that'll immediately get me caught at least.

[Radical Rat]

If I have to die here to put doubts at ease, I'll take it, but the problem there is that we absolutely CANNOT be wrong about Cerb in MeLo.

Of course the same applies in reverse, but having an extra protective on the field increases the odds that tomorrow ISN'T actually MeLo.

[Radical Rat]

You didn't see my role coming, admit it

so

I did not, I honestly expected you to claim VT.

But claiming something that's directly falsifiable AT ALL is something I generally try to avoid as scum, unless there's a really spicy opportunity for a power play. Usual philosophy is to be as close to the truth as possible, limiting the ways in which I can be caught.

Though obviously, I'm a biased source and self-meta can be manipulated, so feel free to look into it on your own

[Radical Rat]

Weird take when it's actually explicitly nightkill bait, but yes that's a possible outcome, as it is with all track/watch type roles

[Radical Rat]

How is disagreeing that it's just mislim bait DOWNplaying your ability? If anything that's up-playing it???

[Radical Rat]

Oh. Yeah, okay that makes more sense.

[Radical Rat]

At the end there you suggest Adorable would be mislimmed for not saving her target, but her target wouldn't be dead either in that case.

[Radical Rat]

It's only really an issue if she'd been tracked, which... hopefully isn't a situation that happens, but we've got a loose degree of coordination going now at least so it should be fine

[Radical Rat]

Fate already asked. Did you see the post where I compiled the relevant interaction?

[Radical Rat]

Spoiler:

I'm Luigi, Ghost Hunter

I can detect if paranormal activity happens around a target. None happened around Cerberus last night

Therefore RR is at the very least not Ghost.


WHICH IM GUESSING means the scumteam is King Boo and Bowser. Would be very surprised if not the case, so my role is either a red herring useless thing or confirms non ghosts.


So yeah

Do your dirty thing Jingle. I expect great things, it's not for everyone I pass up an opportunity to fake claim as town

When you say "nothing happened" does that mean you received an affirmative result that there was no activity?

I was confirmed my action resolved and that I did not detect any paranormal activity

Then something's gone wrong somewhere, or you're lying

Me targeting Cerb means no one should have resolved any other actions on him

Well I don't think I can quote mod communication so I'm paraphrasing

It didn't say explicitly my action resolved or went through

But it said that I didn't detect any paranormal activity

Which is different than the 'no result's I'd expect if I was RBd or something


Does your role stop bodyguards and town actions and everything also?

Watcher usually resolves last so it can y'know watch things

So maybe you resolve right before me to stop everything above the chain

It says all actions targeting the player, so I assume that includes Town, yes.

I also believe that a proper negative result should be distinct from a no result.

But that's something you'll have to ask Cakez about

K I'll pm him, but RR I don't know what shenanigans are around but don't 1v1 me or anything drastic while I'm vla ok

Like I don't think as scum you'd out yourself in this way to 1v1 me, and since I got to go last as scum my fakeclaim would be solid LIKE CERBERUS HERE WHO CLAIMED AFTER ADORABLE

I'm not 1v1ing anything yet

If anything my instinct here is actually to look at Cerb...

Mod confirmed my action went through

VOTE: Cerberus I'll leave this here

Here's the full interaction from Fate claiming the result to claiming to have confirmed with the mod.

The first post is interpreting the result as a soft inno on me, which means Fate did see where I claimed to have targeted you, and chose to claim results anyway.
The questioning around resolution order or if I only block scum actions is strange, but seems to come from a place of genuinely figuring out why they have results.
Me telling them to ask directly about whether they'd receive the same message if blocked was an opportunity for Fate to back down from the conflict, and they did the opposite.

Unless Fate has a history of just pulling this kind of thing out of their ass, I'm not seeing this as a possible lying Town situation. Either Fate is telling the truth, which is how it looks to me, or Fate's lying as scum.

This one

[Radical Rat]

If Fate's faking it as Town to force a lim on you over your claim, why go through all the trouble of faking the confusion about it instead of just outright saying it?

[Radical Rat]

"I received a result that should be impossible, you must have been roleblocked" or something like that. Why faff about with questions over resolution order, or clarifying explicit negative results with the mod, if all of those conclusions were already made up?

[Radical Rat]

What I'm trying to figure out here is why you don't seem to really be considering Fate as scum. It's always been that Fate's Town lying to frame you, when from your perspective I'd expect you to be scumreading at least one of us.

If Fate is lying, they've at least gone the extra mile to make it look as real as possible, and while that could theoretically come from a very conscientious scum, that kind of ass covering isn't something I expect from overconfident Town faking a claim for the lulz.

From where I'm sitting it looks an awful lot like you know you're losing in the "at least one scum in Cerb/RR/Fate" fight, and so are grasping for a way to sell it as TvTvT and get us to eliminate someone else.

[Radical Rat]

Having another moment where this one has no fuckin' clue what to make of things right now. At bare minimum though this one would like to figure out what the hell is going on with Fate/RR before we elim Cerb because that whole thing reeks of scum being involved.

And what would you have us do to figure that out? In theory we could no lim and let another night of results happen, but in the event scum has another interference role, or Cerb isn't actually a JOAT and is just a straight roleblocker, we end up in basically the same spot again, but down another Townie.

I know you voted me because you don't believe me, so presumably your answer is kill me instead, but you're wrong about me, and me flipping rolestopper isn't going to explain what actually happened, and if scum still has interference power, Fate dies alongside me and you're stuck in MeLo. Cerb continues to be the most likely candidate, but there's no way back out of MeLo. Hopefully you got a guilty result on your Tracker in that case, because you won't live to use another shot.

Eliminating Fate is slightly better in that there is potential for me to block a kill still, but is otherwise largely the same situation.

Eliminating a VT claim instead could get lucky, but unless you have a damn good reason Cerb is Town, or a damn good case against someone else (ideally both actually), I don't feel comfortable moving.

Now if we eliminate Cerb today, I very strongly suspect we'll know what happened last night, but even if he flips non-interference scum, or Town, we're going into the night in a much better position with multiple protectives and investigatives still active, and lots of data to be gathered from how the elimination went down, leading to a stronger position in MeLo.

The absolute worst case scenario is scum in either you or Adorable, but both of you are completely off the table for elimination today, so that's just how it has to be.

[Radical Rat]

It's the only angle he CAN take. If either myself or Fate die, and our claims are as we say, Cerb comes out looking worse.

The only chance he has is to convince people to vote outside the Shenanigan Zone and then turn it onto either me or Fate tomorrow.

[Radical Rat]

We know that all the VTs are Toads. With that knowledge, we know that everyone who voiced suspicion that Toads were VTs instead of Goombas are not VT.

We do not know whether scum had that knowledge in advance, but after the Porkens flip they could have made an educated guess.

From there, blocking one and killing another makes perfect sense as a scum play.

[Radical Rat]

She also said "What Rat said"

[Radical Rat]

From my point of view, either Fate is lying, or scum has at least one interference role. I do not believe Fate's posting around this looks like lying, so interference is the only remaining possibility.

That isn't speculation.

[Radical Rat]

It is a factual reality. I know for 100% certain that I targeted Cerb last night. I know for 100% certain Fate's result is impossible if neither of us were interfered with.

There is no speculation involved in saying that either Fate lied or scum interfered.

[Radical Rat]

That's a huge misrepresentation.

You accused me of baseless speculation, so I explained that I am not speculating. No, you don't actually know whether my role is what I say it is or not, but I do, so accusing me of just speculating simply isn't true.

And with regards to Fate I have been very consistent. I do not believe Fate is lying. If someone were to actually try to push that Fate is lying scum, I would defend them from it because I do not think Fate is lying at all. And that's why I'm so set on scum having a roleblocker and/or redirector.

What I have said is that Fate lying is still a technical possibility, and I have said that IF Fate is lying the amount of effort they're going through to cover it up seems incompatible with the idea that Fate is lying as Town, and therefore Cerb's stated position that Fate is Town lying is not something I believe to be a genuine thought.

[Radical Rat]

In literally every single post of that "pendulum shit" I affirm that I believe Fate.

[Radical Rat]

Then what exactly do you mean by "cover it up"? Asking the mod if his action went through??

That, alongside the questions about how Rolestopper works, where Fate was looking for loopholes to explain his result. And then later when they realize my role is stronger than they thought expressing doubts on it again.

If Fate's just Town deliberately claiming an impossible result to push Cerb with, there's no need for any of that. They wouldn't try to figure out if there's another way their result could happen, because the point from the start was that it couldn't. They wouldn't waver on me if they're actually so confident on Cerb as to completely fabricate evidence.

To me, these are indicative of Fate trying to make sense of a genuine result, and that's why I believe them so strongly. However if you're adamantly against Fate telling the truth, those interactions could theoretically have been made up to make a scum lie look more genuine. Cerb's stated position is that he does not believe I was roleblocked, and thinks Fate is lying about their result, but thinks Fate is doing that as Town.

This is a nonsensical position that I am attempting to demonstrate doesn't make sense. It's not meant to be actually shading Fate.

[Radical Rat]

Again, Cerb flips town, scream that Fate is a liar, flip Fate.

I cannot make any guarantees as to the future, but as of right now I do not anticipate pivoting on Fate even if Cerb isn't the roleblocker we're looking for.

This could change if Fate suddenly starts doing something super scummy, or you track them to a kill, but I'll worry about that if it happens.

[Radical Rat]

I don't want to put myself into a situation where if Fate actually does somehow turn out to be scum, making that push just gets me eliminated instead because I said I wouldn't before, so yeah, it's a bit of ass-covering because I cannot see the future.

But I don't expect it to actually become relevant

[Radical Rat]

The peta/Jingle argument is almost certainly not SvS at the very least. I don't really have a lot of opinions on that interaction beyond that. Maaaayyyybe Jingle doing a TMI if you really squint, but eh.

[Radical Rat]

Yeah, I think I've seen enough. There's merit in seeing what else Cerb has to say, in case we're wrong or he implicates someone else, but this is getting somewhat tedious. I'd also have expected to see something happen by now if he were Town, like. Easy game for scum if they chain Cerb into me, but... it's not happening.

[Radical Rat]

? What "something" is that RR? How/why would "something" happen if I'm town? Isn't it more likely that "something" would happen if I were scum?

petapan, are you planning on addressing any of the questions I had in my post about you?

Also the large theme managed to lynch town back to back, so maybe that's not an example that we should be striving to emulate...

I mean I think you'd be dead already, to put it plainly. The general sentiment is in favor of your elimination, I'm a perfect scapegoat for after you're gone, so it's an easy mislim to push with low accountability.

The alternate explanation is that scum's already on the wagon of course, but I'm pretty strongly townreading both Fate and wgeurts, and I'm pretty strongly not townreading you, so I'm not super worried.

[Radical Rat]

My thinking was more that letting you keep talking if you're Town would be dangerous for scum if you happen to be correct about things, so they'd want to shut it down early if thread support was already there.

[Radical Rat]

Which is irrelevant. I'm talking about hammering, not starting the wagon.

[Radical Rat]

I mean my point is that with the wagon existing in its present state for so long, I'd have expected scum to capitalize on it by now.

You saying "Ah, but the wagon exists! Checkmate athesists!" isn't super relevant, no.

[Radical Rat]

Rereading that it comes across as more mean-spirited than I meant it to, sorry. But my point stands.

[Radical Rat]

I mean my point is that with the wagon existing in its present state for so long, I'd have expected scum to capitalize on it by now.

You saying "Ah, but the wagon exists! Checkmate athesists!" isn't super relevant, no.

How so? The wagon is dead literally because I asked it to be dead. I wouldn’t expect scum to want to go against my request for a little time given that I seem to have the respect and trust of everyone to at least a moderate degree.

It's been several days since then though, and not even another E-1 vote. I was also in favor of giving Cerb time to talk first, and I do think there's been some valuable discussion come out of doing so, but by now it just feels like stalling.

[Radical Rat]

Do you mean Porkens, or are you suggesting they attempted to bus Cerb D1?

[Radical Rat]

Was gonna say that's a hell of a stance to take here

[Radical Rat]

Don't presume power-ups in the consideration of setup speculation. Power-ups intend to be a prize and it loses the point of being a prize if it gets factored into the setup balance.

What do you mean here? Are you saying that the power ups shouldn't be considered part of the setup at all, or just that since they can go to either Town or Scum, the balance impact is negligible? Or something else?

[Radical Rat]

Okay so I think that's wrong. The balance consideration here is that you wouldn't want a single power up to make or break the game on its own, regardless of who gets it. So, if there's a power up that interacts with a claimed role in such a way that creates a broken situation, that's going to raise alarms. Additionally some abilities could suggest the existence of mitigating roles to prevent such situations.

Personally, I don't think we've reached a point where anything is super unreasonable yet, but also I am Not a balance expert as I have no actual experience designing Mafia setups and haven't really looked at data on it. Jingle has extensive experience in making mechanically complex setups, so I'd defer to his judgement most of the time on balance/design issues, unless there's a reason to suspect he's lying deliberately.

Though it is also worth noting that does not make Jingle or anyone else, including Cakez and the review team, infallible. So while speculation around setup balance can be a useful tool, it shouldn't be the only thing in consideration, though it doesn't look like anyone's actually doing that here.

[Radical Rat]

I already ran through some options for scum teams lemme see if I saved my notes

I'm interested in seeing this still if you get back in time

[Radical Rat]

HPE, please claim your results and also provide your review of chairs as a culinary dish

[Radical Rat]

I mean, not like there was ever going to be a conflict over who targeted wgeurts anyway.

[Radical Rat]

I didn't target Fate last night either, so no evidence of any shenanigans this time

[Radical Rat]

Largely irrelevant now, isn't it?

[Radical Rat]

I didn't target Fate because I tried to outguess scum, and was wrong. I thought Fate being the obvious target meant scum would just shoot elsewhere instead

[Radical Rat]

Well, I was hoping not to have to claim this, but... it'll probably just detail the whole day if I don't, so.

I targeted no one last night. I only have two shots, and thought it would be prudent to save one for later, since I expected to be the kill target.

I figured Adorable would be protecting me, in which case she dies even if I protect her, and scum should have been expecting me to protect Fate so wouldn't "waste" a kill there. And then I'd be able to ACTUALLY protect Fate tonight

[Radical Rat]

I left that out of my original claim because I wanted scum to think I was a bigger threat than I really am, and to hopefully influence their kills away from the other PRs for longer

[Radical Rat]

Why the fuck is the tracker claiming before the rolestopper who is scummier?

How do you figure I'm scummier anyway?

[Radical Rat]

Strongman usually still works in those situations

[Radical Rat]

yeah i'm not gonna quote it because i don't want to edit the great wall of china but cerb's handling of HPE is just not scum/scum

And you think my handling of Cerb is?

[Radical Rat]

To be clear, I do not, at this moment, believe HPE to be scum.

[Radical Rat]

I just figured after using my action's failure to catch scum, while HPE bent over backwards to protect him and shade me... Like, I was preparing to fight off a fake guilty when I saw the flip

[Radical Rat]

Actually it's not a public doc, at least not in the same way that the Tanuki was.

Whoever we elect actually becomes a one-shot Doc, but is not protected themselves.

[Radical Rat]

I just figured after using my action's failure to catch scum, while HPE bent over backwards to protect him and shade me... Like, I was preparing to fight off a fake guilty when I saw the flip

you were preparing for a fake guilty in a 8v2 at 6 alive?

I mean, after I flip just blame it on the strongman, right?

[Radical Rat]

yeah i'm not gonna quote it because i don't want to edit the great wall of china but cerb's handling of HPE is just not scum/scum

And you think my handling of Cerb is?

i hadn't stated a conclusion on you yet actually


but...yeah, plausibly? i just did a quick check on a reread, tell me what you believe makes you unaligned with cerb?

It would have been completely unnecessary for scum!me to bus him yesterday. I could have very easily gone after Fate instead. He also spends the whole day sucking up to me instead of distancing from me.

[Radical Rat]

How would that be a fake guilty? That would be you actually being tracked to a kill.

It would be fake because I didn't visit anyone. If I got tracked to Fate, that would be a lie.

[Radical Rat]

Specifically what I thought could have happened is Scum!HPE believing it could use the Tanuki to circumvent my rolestop, and then claim to have seen me visit Fate.

This is why I needed HPE to claim first, so it couldn't know that I didn't protect Fate, and then the gambit falls apart.

But also this... didn't happen, so there's not too much point in litigating it.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Power up: wgeurts

Obviously best to just give this to conftown.

[Radical Rat]

Like, I was preparing to fight off a fake guilty when I saw the flip

When were you preparing to fight off a fake guilty, exactly? Night phase or post seeing Fate flip?

After the Fate flip. My initial reaction was that scum thought they could pierce my protection somehow, and since I don't believe a true strongman exists, HPE trying to use the Tanuki to slip through was what popped in my head.

[Radical Rat]

Why do I kill Fate as scum, knowing that I'm accountable for protecting them? Even if they investigate me, the role isn't a straight guilty, and if I kill Adorable instead it becomes easy to sell it as a failed kill on me.

And even supposing I did kill Fate, why do I admit to not protecting anybody after verifying HPE didn't track me?

[Radical Rat]

Why do I hard bus Cerb instead of going after Fate? Why do I claim rolestopper at all instead of an impossible to verify (at the time) Doctor?

[Radical Rat]

Obviously I fucked up by not protecting Fate, but if I'm scum here I target the protective who's supposed to be guarding the investigative over the actual investigative, so I thought that's what would happen here too.

Clearly, I was wrong, but I have done so much more in this game than just make a bad night play

[Radical Rat]

Thoughts Time:

My first guess for scum here is peta. He was on Porkens, but off Cerb, I've been scumreading him off and on throughout the game, and judging by end of day, Fate would have agreed.

Jingle is a source of mild paranoia for me. In general, I'd trust him more than myself on mechanical matters, but when he's saying my role shouldn't exist, and I have my role... at the very least, he's wrong. I also think that if there was scum bussing peta, Jingle is the most likely to be that scum.

Adorable is probably just Town. We know she's Loved, and she was the swing vote for Cerb, probably could have turned it onto me instead if she'd wanted to.

HPE scares me a lot, because while I'm leaning Town presently, if it is scum we're kinda fucked. Was also on Porkens but off Cerb, was frankly bizarrely trusting of his claim, the kill makes the most sense in this world, and I'm not 100% convinced Daisy makes sense as a UB... but also willingly generating conftown is something scum usually avoids, and there were a couple angles that could have been taken to mislim me instead... but also doing things this way is safer and no one's going to want to lim it in MeLo... but I don't know if I'm willing to give up a potential cop shot going into ELo.

Wgeurts is IC now, because even if HPE is lying, they can't both be scum, but I was strongly townreading them anyway.


Conclusions: I don't fuckin' have any