TM 2023 | Mini Normal | Endgame
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Hi
Mhm i can believe koba is scum here mhm
Did anyone get my fruitNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I hope koba is a roleblocker and they actually used their roleblocks on two fruit vendors. That would be funnyNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Jeez how many roleblockers do we have aroundNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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koba, too, was tragically roleblocked
(Tbh the babysitter thing never seemed like a real claim from the start because I don't think you ever like, claim like that as a role where scum can kill two people by killing you)No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I don't really believe that koba has a multitasking on there as town
If you do shrug we got trolled I guess the mod got us, but I think the chances of a scum flip rise enough where it's very difficult to justify any other course of action.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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This is like the equivalent of claiming miller after getting guiltied by a cop and then saying it's cringe to solve by mechanicsIn post 1481, DkKoba wrote: Solving via mech is cringeNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Ok but like I appreciate it's not literally impossible for you to be multitasking for absolutely zero practical purpose, but it's improbable enough that I don't think leaving you alive is justifiable. If you are actually town then rip I guess.In post 1484, DkKoba wrote: K but I literally have a useful role and confirmed Mala did u not notice I stopped pushing Mala after I saw she confirmed her role existed + the parallel with your role?
I don't think the parallel with me and mala is meaningful or alignment indicative. Mafia fruit vendor is something i've seen decently often. We could be both town or we could not be. It's just a nothing role
For example, yes i targeted shirou last night, I don't think we learned anything. I could have used it to claim disloyal fruit vendor, and if he was still pushing me like he was on d1 it could even have been funny, but i don't think it'd be a very good ideaNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Mastina why do you existNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Freedom do you have like reads and stuff at this pointNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Hmmmm
It's more difficult than I thought to play like this with an obvious suspect and not yet having like actual confirmation of their alignment
I asked this in the hood but i should probably ask here too, does anyone have like elaboration on the DGB metaNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I'd definitely like freedom to like give reads and do stuff that is readable but idk if that's on the cardsNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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yeah I played a fairly recent mini normal where he did the same thing as town
But i can't imagine he would behave differently as scum either so shrug. I'd like him to elaborate more on the DV read and give other thoughts on the game, as I said earlier - his justification for the DV read was something that happened after he made the readNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I think hypothetically it is very useful to have discussion today but if enough people decide they just wanna say koba is scum and do nothing else it does become antitown pretty quicklyNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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How is it antitown Ausuka?In post 1541, Ausuka wrote: but if enough people decide they just wanna say koba is scum and do nothing else it does become antitown pretty quickly
If Koba flips scum we can look back to what they said today and how other slots reacted to the guilty, and if they ever flip town for some miraculous mod troll, we can also look back to today.
Even if we kept mostly thumb twiddling for another week I think that would still be pro-town because more content no matter how small it is, is always better in this somewhat inactive game I think.
I think the unique argument for it to be anti-town is because it could generate "apathy" but really, a red flip would surely get us more motivated again in the next day anyway. A town flip even more considering how shocking it would be.
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shrug i see what you're saying i think but i think apathy/'twiddling your thumbs' is likely to just lower energy levels for the town even more
I also just think koba's posting today is likely to be calculated to screw with us if they're scum and i am not particularly inclined to read into itNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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oops
I think it's obvious which part i wroteNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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i don't really have an issue 'finding koba partners' or whatever - i think they can be being bussed, today but also in general even in the early game scum tend to bus p often
I probably need to re-evaluate xoffyNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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if i knew the game would already be overIn post 1577, DkKoba wrote:
Ok who is bussing me then?In post 1576, Ausuka wrote: i don't really have an issue 'finding koba partners' or whatever - i think they can be being bussed, today but also in general even in the early game scum tend to bus p often
I probably need to re-evaluate xoffy
Could be freedom or dgbNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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who knows what's going on with the mala "dgb is town" thing
given she got roleblocked it might be the same kind of analysis that made her want to kill me with fire but maybe it's a real innocent somehow
idk if i can really talk about what we have out there productively especially since zero people have elaborated on the meta beyond just 'meta'No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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im very tempted to just hammerNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Nah I'm just going to make you wait a week
Have funNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I'm not changing my claimNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I also have thoughts but it feels like it might be prudent to save them for after we all claimNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Shirou was roleblocked by dgbNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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If the team is koba xofelf and deasvail I am going to cry and then stop playing mafia foreverNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I think dgb is pretty unlikely to be scum here
I guess we need mastina to check them, because it would make more sense if they also have a better gate than just 'lazy' but it seems unlikely mafia have two roleblockers
I do think xofelf is just scum here but i want to think about it more / reread the hoodNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Shirou if scum is an announcing doctor i think
That would be a massive troll role, but if i'm considering a 3 scum/1 town hood i gotta consider that tooNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I think scum are probably being mostly honest about their roles
I think xofelf's claim and timing, with like, their approach to koba looks bad - like it doesn't feel like there is much reason to claim there and it looks performative, like 'hi yes I am guiltying koba too I want to join the fun'. I like xoffy and we were in the hood together and they targeted me with their loud n1 and i think i was probably like... overly favourable to their play before, but their posts in thread are pretty underwhelming - for example on d3 they didn't really like do discussion and solving despite saying we shouldn't hammer koba early for that reason, only to then claim a second guilty on koba and vote.
Looking back in their iso in the hood, I think there was a kind of strange interaction where they said i was town cos my role is confirmable so they don't need to worry about me, I say something along the lines of 'I don't think fruit vendor is a town-only role' at which point they are just like 'well idk, it would confirm the role-claim is accurate, and I think you won't be difficult to sort' (paraphrased, obviously) - in hindsight it does kinda feel like they knew I was town and wanted me in their devious foxy pockets.
In most circumstances, i usually don't try to solve for balance. There are situations where things are blatantly believable or not, but there's also a decently wide range of things that nrg reviewers can pass. The last normal game I played, I thought it was really scumsided, and when Datisi saw he agreed, but two normal reviewers decided it was passable.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I don't think dv is like, confirmed town or anything, but i'm not super feeling a lim on him especiallyNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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(i'm open to hearing thoughts otherwise obvs, i feel like i've kinda sucked ass this game)No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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We have a role cop, a role watcher, and also shirou is claiming to be announcing, which means if he's lying it should become like super duper obvious and just generally I think scum are true-claiming here unless they have a role that just can't be claimed. I think he is genuinely an announcing doctor, and that most likely means he was genuinely roleblocked on night 2 as far as i can tell? Maybe i need to think about it more, but someone should have got that notification if Koba didn't actually roleblock him.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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It sort of seems like an edge case admittedly, but shirou, did you make a PR soft in the hood? (or one in the thread I missed I guess)No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I mean, we have xofelf's claim as corroborating evidence, and it seems unlikely they're specifically lying to protect Shirou or something. It also just seems sensible to me that they would send Koba to do the kill since they had just quickhammered and it seems like they were considered expendable by the scumteam at that time.In post 1719, mastina wrote:
Consider: scum need someone to make the nightkill.In post 1716, Ausuka wrote: We have a role cop, a role watcher, and also shirou is claiming to be announcing, which means if he's lying it should become like super duper obvious and just generally I think scum are true-claiming here unless they have a role that just can't be claimed. I think he is genuinely an announcing doctor, and that most likely means he was genuinely roleblocked on night 2 as far as i can tell? Maybe i need to think about it more, but someone should have got that notification if Koba didn't actually roleblock him.
Koba had multitasking, so scum didn’t have factional multitasking.
Koba COULD have made the N2 kill, in order to both kill and block, but also could have just blocked, with the killer being a non-multitasking partner.
If Shirou's claim is true, then you also have to keep in mind that there’s liability to be had in actions. (This isn’t Shirou-specific, part ofbmy deep dive will be seeing if people's claimed actions match up with their play.)
If Shirou gave away being a doctor too soon, then Shirou would need to justify not being on the scum's nightkill of choice.
(Idle thought; compulsive disloyal announcing doctor?)
But none of this is definitive.
I think that it’s worth investigating tho.
I don't really think I can see myself voting for shirou todayNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Ok my crack theory is like, did scum know shirou was a PR or something? Cos like
On n1 and n3 dgb targets shirou, the only night they don't is n2, when koba claims to have roleblocked shirou
And it's not super clear to me *why* DGB roleblocks DV, someone they had like very little indication of scumreading, over koba who we know in hindsight from xoffy's claim probably *did* make the nightkill on n2, unless scum have a ninja or xoffy is scum and decides to lie about this for whatever reason.
Obviously I scumread dgb on play but my reads suck so whatever.
Anyway is it too stupid to suggest scum might have two blockersNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I think koba was willing to die and that's why they played the day they did. This doesn't make much sense if the team is, like, xofelf and freedom.
It makes much more sense if it's mastina or shirou. I don't know how well koba would co-operrate with either of those two but it's definitely like a possibility? Shea thinks mastina is just scum but I'm less confident about it so I want to pursue this. I think a sensible third option is that koba was banking on their flip clearing DGB off of mechs?
But like unfortunately occam's razor kind of is just that dgb is town and scum don't just have two roleblockers for some reasonNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I'm pretty sure shea has read your iso, he's been pretty engaged throughout the game
He was telling me you were scum sometimes during like the end of d1. He seemed to think you were aggro at both alignments but has been saying ur town more recently
I'll link this post to him anyway and see if he has a comment.
Shea's position on mastina is that he thinks she's being manipulative + likes your points, specifically he was like "if you are a scum role that gets guiltied by a role cop why the fuck wouldn't you roleblock the role cop"
I was basically like, I don't think koba really cared to live, and then shea said "well if you think koba is going down, why not just fake a guilty to get towncred" and I was like "well ok i guess that's possible"No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I mean maybe this was the plan but the way the guilty played out was reliant on mastina outing the rolecop claim, so unless the team was like -exactly- mastina/xofelf, the guilty claim was probably decided after that?In post 1750, Shirou wrote:
and for last, I think it does make some sense if it's xofelf because xofelf did also get a guilty on Koba apparentlyIn post 1744, Ausuka wrote: This doesn't make much sense if the team is, like, xofelf
I think the way xofelf got a guilty on Koba is much more believable than Mastina however so /shrug
Xoffy did have some townreads so like I guess it's ~possible~ but idk
Pedit: I think if koba roleblocks someone else and claim the block on Shirou, that risks inferring that Shirou is scum if that person is like "um hi so I got roleblocked not shirou actually"No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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This is completely unrelated to the game but when I view it on mobile I keep seeing shirou's avatar as nagito komaedaNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I mean I don't know why my brain does it. Obviously it looks very different if I see the avatar in a form where it has more than 12 pixelsNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Maybe komaeda is just fitting for youNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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The smart money is on the scumteam of dgb and freedom making a surprise comebackNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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brb changing my avatar to spaghettiNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Maybe dgb is just scum
It doesn't make much sense on setup spec but it makes more sense than anyone else on other mechs and playNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I mean ultimately the hood has hundreds of posts - it's four times the length of your hood - and many of those posts are walls. Paraphrasing all that with timestamps is going to take a long time. And like, I think most of the stuff in there is just reiterated from what's been said in thread. I could maybe do a more brief summary of important things that happened in the hood, like koba claiming vanilla neighbour on d1 lmaoNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I'm not sure why you think people not doing that is Shirou's fault? I mean not even you have done it yet. It seems kind of forced to say that shirou is 'threatened' by that - like, why is anything happening in the hoods going to necessarily be 'threatening' to shirou and how is making a few multiposts going to actually practically prevent that?No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Mm so I have had irl stuff but I'm gonna try and get back into this.
Something i was talking about in my team discord is the thought that mastina might be town because of the multitasking modifier being unusual and that it could be meant by a (very few people actually use this modifier I'm pretty sure, they usually just put in the rules that scum are multitasking by default) It does make some more sense if both shirou and DGB are town, since I can see how having both a doc and a jk would make the mod add a multitasking to the RB later in the setup process in order to make the counterplay to both of the protectives more reliable. I guess what I'm trying to say is this probably isn't a massive brain mastina/shirou team or mastina/dgb or whatever.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I will do actual posting later but i can do the easy mech stuff now. Announcing means your target gets a PM saying like, "you were targeted by a Doctor". It doesn't give the name of the person who targeted you though.
Also i hope i'm not that grumpy >.>No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Also xoffy weren't we in a large normal game together where i was scum pretty recently?No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Ok so, I'm currently thinking eliminating in {freedom, deasvail} is the optimal move because everyone has different roles. This creates a very powerful synergy between shirou and xoffy, where they both either prevent kills or make any kill lead to a 1v1 the next day. Additionally, dgb is a jailkeeper and can stop scum from killing or even protect shirou, and mastina can check that people aren't fakeclaiming. There are definitely, like, scum in this group, don't get me wrong, but scum still have to play with caution to avoid outing themselves.
As DkKoba would say, "solving by mechs is cringe", however I believe sometimes it is necessary to harness cringe for the sake of the town
Full disclosure since i have mostly been talking about this game in discord rather than the actual game thread, DV is probably the more likely vote here, which I wouldn't have done not-so-long ago but his push on shirou for not wanting to get roleblocked gave me bad vibes and also reminded me about the thing with his push on Kowahbungah earlier that I didn't like. Shea and tweetie have also been telling me the scumteam is mastina/deasvail and like they are better at mafia than me. Also like, looking back I think 699 to 701 feels like... I mean, there's nothing there that I think town *wouldn't* write but it's also exactly the sort of post I think scum would write - DV seems very concerned with like joining in the pressure on koba and being opposed to them without joining the wagon there. I think generally, scum like to set themselves up on different 'sides' of debates so ideally every town is townreading at least one scum member.
I'm not going to vote for him right now because freedom is still ???. and i was like "Shea why are you townreading freedom" and he was all "I forgor " I think part of it is he was saying like, arko treated koba differently in his readslist, and he thought scum would be more cautious. I disagreed with that because koba asked for those reads and I think that would lead him to talk about koba first. Maybe i should just reread like the whole arko wagon situation and that would be better than trying to read freedom? I have no idea what freedom's reads are right nowNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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The push in general has some bad vibes, and I think in this gamestate scum is pretty likely to be pushing shirou, but the bit about getting frustrated didn't feel like that OTT to me and felt like a pretty normal response to getting roleblocked all three nights in a rowIn post 1908, DeasVail wrote:
I'd be interested to know what you mean by this. Was it the push in general? Or that bit? Because I think that bit was mostly about the general OTT-nessIn post 1885, Ausuka wrote: his push on shirou for not wanting to get roleblocked gave me bad vibesNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I am never voting shirou here
VOTE: Deasvail
I was fine keeping my vote open ended because I wanted to pressure freedom into doing things but shirou is freaking out that we have three days left and mechanically limming Mastina over DV without a reaaaaaaaally good reason feels ??? Because if DV or freedom is scum they can do the kill and the watcher isn't that useful because even if xoffy watched the nightkill, we don't know if Xofelf or freedom or deasvail is scum there. I hope that makes sense
I think the two most likely scumteams are DV with Mastina or DV with DGB, although I still feel extremely reluctant to like let freedom live to endgame so hopefully it doesn't come to that or he like gives us reads. I guess it could be like the meme dream of freedom/dgb stillNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Also shirou I understand if you're mad that I didn't do anything for a week but I kind of was going through the wringer a bit I wasn't being lazy on purpose I promise!
I'm not sure I really see the argument that Mastina is to be scum cos Rolecop is a classically scum role tbh.i don't think this game is built to be traditional at all, I think rolecop can easily be a town role here. Honestly part of me just does want to take the easy option and agree with everyone that it's just Mastina here and like there's a good chance it is in fact Mastina, but also a lot of the push on her seems centered around the idea she's playing badly, or frustrated with her play - I see this with my team as well, and I'm not totally convinced this is a result of her not believing what she's saying? I think the most convincing argument to me is still that she didn't get roleblocked or killed at all as a claimed investigative who guiltied scum, which yes that is in fact suspicious. But also like, I do think there is a pretty good possibility that Koba genuinely did not think they were going to get investigated like they said on d3, they probably weren't planning to live to endgame anyways, and like actually being the one who claims the guilty on scum and gets them killed has to like earn her some town points from me in any case. Typically at this point in the game I would probably just be flat out assuming the guilty claim was town and re evaluate if they survive to elo.
Again I acknowledge that Mastina can be scum and I'm not saying she's definitely town but I still have my doubts and I think dv is a better flip if you're still okay with that. And if there are any specific points you want to talk about I'm happy to do that as long as you don't yell at me or anythingNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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The mason thing is something I can believe town Mastina would do
I think it's suspicious that she felt that way but apparently stopped caring about it half way through day 1, but I'm sure she'll be in the thread to talk about it soon enoughNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Imo night action should be this
Shirou protects xoffy
Xoffy watched shirou
I target shirou
Dgb uh uses jk offensively against freedom or something?
Idk I get where you guys are coming from but I feel like you're underestimating how powerful a doc and watcher loop can be. It's going to be difficult to match that.
If we want to confirm dgb is what she says, maybe we should just ask MastinaNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I would also reiterate that if we lim dv or freedom today xofelf does basically become a watcher and should be treated accordinglyNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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Roles include mafia claims but they're still probably going to struggle to play around it without implicating themselvesNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I mean we have a DV wagon. it's where all the cool people are. what are your thoughts on thatIn post 1986, DrippingGoofball wrote:
You sure it's not because you're mafia?In post 1985, DeasVail wrote:I think I'm mostly just really bad at USING team reads in TM. From memory I think the last TM I probably didn't even mention my team at all.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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It does incriminate shirou if koba lied about roleblocking himIn post 1999, mastina wrote:
You realize only roles producing results know they get blocked, right?In post 1754, Ausuka wrote:Pedit: I think if koba roleblocks someone else and claim the block on Shirou, that risks inferring that Shirou is scum if that person is like "um hi so I got roleblocked not shirou actually"
You realize Koba claiming to have blocked Shirou doesn't negatively impact Shirou on D3, right?
Koba was the one who claimed to have blocked Shirou N2. Shirou didn't collaborate that until today.
If Koba blocked someone else, and that player claimed they were blocked instead of Shirou, you know what that does?
It does nothing to incriminate Shirou, it doesn't change Koba's fate, but it DOES lead to...
...That PR being outted on D3.
And note that Shirou didn't claim a role originally today--so Shirou only committed to a claim after it was fairly safe to make that claim.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I'm aware not every role is going to know, but there's often evidence that people get roleblocked, and inherently the people the mafia roleblocker is targeting are probably going to have a higher likelihood of thatNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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I understand why people would want to vote out freedom. I am also not a fan of his playstyle and would not want to lose to scum freedom
Nevertheless I think there are scummier players in the game and that he acts this way as townNo matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.-
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Ausuka she/herTeam Mafia Winnershe/her
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