TM 2023 | Super Mario Bros Mafia | Game Over!

[Radical Rat]

@Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?

[Radical Rat]

@Adorable
I know we did this with the Tanuki already, but would you mind asking Cakez if the mushroom can protect you from dying if your target is attacked?

[Radical Rat]

I have received confirmation from Cakez that the Tanuki would NOT have allowed piercing my protection.

This makes me feel a lot better about HPE, and that puts us pretty close to auto-win.

VOTE: petapan

If peta's Town, flip Jingle tomorrow, and that should be the game.

[Radical Rat]

I'm not dogmatically anti-bussing, but I am very much against unnecessary bussing, and I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there. ESPECIALLY not with multiple investigatives and a Bodyguard in play, where I would much rather take the fall myself than let the roleblocker die.

I think you're heavily overestimating just how much Cerb's fate was sealed, and I find it interesting how that's the same line of defense Cerb had for not using the BP shot.

[Radical Rat]

I'm not dogmatically anti-bussing, but I am very much against unnecessary bussing, and I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there. ESPECIALLY not with multiple investigatives and a Bodyguard in play, where I would much rather take the fall myself than let the roleblocker die.

I think you're heavily overestimating just how much Cerb's fate was sealed, and I find it interesting how that's the same line of defense Cerb had for not using the BP shot.

This was in response to peta

[Radical Rat]

@Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?

If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.

Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.

Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).

Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.

The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.

Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.

This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?

I agree with this. It seems to me like Cerb was the intended way for scum to bypass protection, and I cannot imagine there just also being a strongman, especially with the potential for a double kill from hitting Adorable's target.

[Radical Rat]

Now THAT'S spicy

[Radical Rat]

Adorable doesn't need to holster in that case, which means wgeurts can be kept alive.

[Radical Rat]

So you were brainstorming with your team on how to escape autoloss, eh?

[Radical Rat]

I just found the way you framed your point amusing is all.

You are right, holstering would be the correct move for scum to make in that situation, but there's also no inherent risk for Town in that case since it'll just be the same day again, so like. Even if the chance they don't figure it out in time is small, why point it out?

It's not like it's mutually exclusive with using the protective roles

[Radical Rat]

I mean, you do still have to pretend to care. And seeing as you've already started taking the angle of "all these plans are stupid and won't work, so kill Rat instead of me..."

Yes, I think you're scum trying to derail Town coordination.

[Radical Rat]

I will respect that request. Sorry for daring to doubt your motivations.

[Radical Rat]

If you were genuinely offended by that comment, I'm sorry. Actually this time.

It was meant as a lighthearted jab at the futility of the situation, not a personal attack on you.

[Radical Rat]

Regardless of that though, it's true that you have not yet said to abandon planning and kill me instead, but it's the seeds you were planting.

HPE's Tracker is now useless, because even if you aren't scum, there's no longer a chance for them to make that mistake, so the plan of securing its shot is... well, shot.

You saying I'll just kill whoever I'm supposed to protect and blame a strongman is attempting to undermine the coordination of the protective roles, and presenting me as a threat that needs removed.

You hadn't literally said the words yet, but it's the angle you're clearly setting up.

[Radical Rat]

Why didn't I do that today then?

[Radical Rat]

That would be a big ass gloopy though.

If I'm scum, I know the guilty is real, and I know you're not lying, so even if I did make that accusation and won the 1v1, I'm dead immediately the next day. Whatever defense I would have had, needed to have been compatible with you tracking me.

[Radical Rat]

Sounds to me like mentioning Cerb, if infrequently, and voting for Cerb both with and without leading to an elimination is explicitly contradictory to your findings.

I don't want to argue self-meta though, especially when you probably know it better than I do now.

I'd be okay switching to Jingle though. Ultimately it doesn't super matter which one goes first, unless there actually is a strongman, but that's incredibly unlikely to me.

All that matters is that whoever survives the night without protection dies.

[Radical Rat]

Even if scum holster, the extra mislim allows us to eventually kill both.

The only risk is a strongman getting me mislimmed, or one of the PRs lying. And if it's a PR lying, there's not a lot to be done there unless someone scumslips

[Radical Rat]

Who gave that opinion if you don't mind my asking?

[Radical Rat]

RR/Peta/Jingle(??????) all feel possible here and this one isn't super sure how it's gonna proceed if we flip one as town today.

Well, I need to live today for the possible protection, but you don't actually need to trust me for it.

You, wgeurts, and Adorable should all three be guaranteed to live, barring a strongman or something which I believe we're all on the same page about not existing.

If that chain breaks, and one of you dies, it comes down to how much you trust the person protecting that slot. Make one final call on whether you believe a strongman exists, and either kill me or Adorable based on whose target died, or kill peta or Jingle based on who we don't eliminate today.

If that chain DOESN'T break, the only two possible kill options are me and whichever of peta/Jingle we don't eliminate today. You kill the survivor. If scum holsters, we have an extra day and can lim both of us. In theory, either you or Adorable could still be the killer, but Adorable is at least half confirmed, and I think you approach today differently as scum, so I'm willing to take that chance.

[Radical Rat]

As I lie in bed trying to sleep last night, I had a feeling. The peculiar sense that we were missing something obvious. That something wasn't right.

And as I pondered, I saw it. It was Fate. Based on the description of the role, it's basically a motion detector, but specifically for ghosts. It's been a pretty safe assumption that the remaining scum is Boo flavored in some way, but... why would we need a motion detector? If they're either a goon or a strongman, it doesn't take a fancy role to figure out "scum visited here!" when a body shows up. So they must have some kind of non-lethal ability... but what? Cerberus provided both a roleblock, and a rolecop. Limited shots, sure, but even so... odd powers to expect doubling. A ninja, perhaps? A fitting power for ghosts, in which case Fate would serve as a warning to us... A warning to the Tracker not to trust its eyes. But does a Tracker with but two active nights truly necessitate such a counter? No... I cannot think so. But what if instead the Tracker was our lifeline? Luigi could tell us there was something unseen, but perhaps only the harsh light of a Tracker's gaze can truly pierce the veil of illusion... A beguiling phantasm, turning us against one another...

It was then as I languished in these thoughts that I heard laughter. A chortle, echoing through the night, and with it a maddening ringing filled my ears. The ringing of bells. Sleigh bells.

Jingle

bells.

VOTE: Jingle

[Radical Rat]

In more plain English:

The last scum has to do SOMETHING and the something has to be non-lethal, or else Fate's role makes no sense. But the power balance doesn't seem to work out, with Cerb being both a roleblocker and a rolecop. Fate could theoretically catch Ninja visits, but that seems like a stretch to have such a heavily restricted Tracker also be completely useless.

But redirection could work. Using Cerb to identify roles, and then deflecting them somewhere else in the coming nights. Fate tells us something fucky happened, Tracker catches people visiting the wrong targets, and while scum could negate one investigate or one protective, they can't negate both of either. And if I target correctly, that's another off the table. It sounds broken at first, but does have a natural interplay with all of the claims so far.

It does however mean that today's elimination matters. I'm not saying we shouldn't follow the plan and try to protect as many as possible, because we absolutely should still do that in case either I'm just wrong, or it's restricted in some way.

But today's elimination DOES matter. We should make every effort to get it right. And having considered things further... my heart says Jingle.

[Radical Rat]

As for why it says Jingle, there's been a couple things rubbing me the wrong way

petapan reacting so emotionally every time I've prodded him: accusing me of weaponizing his illness, calling me a fucking idiot who's never played a theme before, and then getting genuinely offended by me making a presumptuous comment about him being scum. It feels like genuine indignation. It could theoretically be AtE that I am now falling for, but it's a disproportionate reaction if the things I'd been accusing him of are actually true. And his recent posts showing a willingness to go along with everything, including his death... I should have let him talk more before calling out the angle I thought he was going for earlier, but even so, it looks and feels real, in a way that I wasn't picking up on before.

[Radical Rat]

Jingle on the other hand, has been a sinking pit in my stomach for a while now. I pushed those doubts aside for a while because there was always something bigger until now.

But the mechanical takes, well... by his own admission, they haven't been as good as they're supposed to be. And then ever since my claim he's been shading me but never really acting on it. And there was something else I noticed...

[Radical Rat]

This is a scumclaim. You were JUST talking about how you thought Porkens claim was incredibly suspicious, but Mafia wouldn't have had any way to know Toad VTs were a thing, and you existing confirms they exist, which SHOULD have cleared Porkens for you.

I was trying to slowroll that, but yes, the sequence is super sus.

Oh, wrt the porkens claim, I actually saw the claim before I noticed the thread was locked and my initial reaction was "That's odd, I'd assumed the VT's were individually flavored." I would have strongly considered flavor cc'ing, but don't think the assumption that peta wouldn't have taken it as a scumclaim with that assumption is truly unreasonable. It is slightly eyebrow raising, but I think we're in a world where the setup is fairly clearing for the VTs so I'm not particularly worried about it for today. I also think wgeurtz/cerb is not S/S, (and have since early D1) and so if I need to reevaluate on a VT it's probably peta, but I don't really think peta is scum anymore.

This seems rather contradictory to me. I noticed it at the time, but was too focused on Cerb to pursue it.

[Radical Rat]

But today's elimination DOES matter.

It literally does not. But okay.

So you believe that Fate's role is legitimately useless then?

[Radical Rat]

Okay but I'm not doubting Adorable here. I'm doubting YOU.

[Radical Rat]

I am doubting that this is truly an auto-win, yes. But all that means is that I think today's vote matters, not that we shouldn't try to protect everyone anyway. I sincerely hope that I'm wrong about my redirector epiphany, and I will still vote for peta if no one else is willing to vote you.

But right now, I'm calling your bluff.

[Radical Rat]

Fortunately, you don't have to believe me. No one does. If I'm wrong, it's auto-win regardless. Today doesn't matter, we speedrun the next couple days, and the sun rises on a brighter Mushroom Kingdom.

But if I'm right, it is imperative that we don't make the wrong call here. If I'm still breathing tomorrow there's nothing I can say that will sway anyone, and I know that. I'll try anyway, but it'll all just be for show. The game will have been decided here and now.

[Radical Rat]

Does Koba disagree with you that it's auto-win?

[Radical Rat]

Does Koba disagree with you that it's auto-win?

Koba thinks there’s a chance that someone will vote adorable or HPE over peta in 3p.

The only circumstances where this would even be in consideration is if somehow Adorable and HPE both make it to 3p with peta, in which case HPE should have a valid Tracker result, because scum can't prevent Adorable from protecting wgeurts AND prevent HPE from tracking in the same night.

So unless HPE specifically is scum, the correct decision should be made 100% of the time in that scenario.

[Radical Rat]

We can eliminate you before me then if it ends up in that situation. It shouldn't be super important unless scum has been hiding a double kill somewhere

[Radical Rat]

We can eliminate you before me then if it ends up in that situation. It shouldn't be super important unless scum has been hiding a double kill somewhere

No.

Why does it matter? Like, either way it goes we both end up eliminated. I don't personally mind being eliminated first, but peta has expressed that he does mind being eliminated last, so???

[Radical Rat]

We can eliminate you before me then if it ends up in that situation. It shouldn't be super important unless scum has been hiding a double kill somewhere

No.

Why does it matter? Like, either way it goes we both end up eliminated. I don't personally mind being eliminated first, but peta has expressed that he does mind being eliminated last, so???

Because you not dying immediately tomorrow means an opportunity for shenanigans. If the plan falls apart because of night action fuckups, you are far more likely to be scum than peta, so you die first.

If there are night action shenanigans, no matter how I try there's no way out of this for me. But I will try regardless because it will be MeLo.

But aside from night action shenanigans, we only get a choice if scum holsters, which creates a situation where it doesn't matter because we have an extra day, even if shenanigans happen afterwards. I'll go first if that's what helps people sleep at night in that case, but it really doesn't matter at that point.

[Radical Rat]

Eliminating in a player who failed their protection because of a strongman looks manipulative.

Do you agree to lim me then rat then peta in that order and protect wgeurts? Y/N

I prefer to elim scum and when you say it like this, it makes me conflicted and worried the flip will be a miss. wgeurts is going to be protected by the mushroom tonight and I'll have to protect someone else.

This is incorrect. YOU are protected by the mushroom, via wgeurts. You need to protect wgeurts using your shroom-induced invulnerability, while I protect HPE.

Or we could have me protect wgeurts and you protect HPE, but it's something that does need to be set in stone by sunset so we don't accidentally target the same person. My preference is you on wgeurts me on HPE, but either is fine.

[Radical Rat]

Eliminating in a player who failed their protection because of a strongman looks manipulative.

Do you agree to lim me then rat then peta in that order and protect wgeurts? Y/N

I prefer to elim scum and when you say it like this, it makes me conflicted and worried the flip will be a miss. wgeurts is going to be protected by the mushroom tonight and I'll have to protect someone else.

Jingle so willingly going "yeah kill me" def gives town vibes but this one is also scared of WIFOM "well if he's trying to get himself killed then he can't be scum right?" type shit. Best bet is to just go with his plan rn it thinks...?

Thing is he's not actually doing that. Koba is allegedly begging him to towncase himself, and he's only on board with his elimination if he can get everyone to agree to a course of action that can never be changed, that requires a specific outcome to even happen in the first place.

And to be clear, the current plan IS good, assuming indeed that Jingle flips Town and scum holsters, and in that case I WILL go willingly if peta changes his mind about not wanting to be last and nothing groundbreaking happens. You can take my hypothetical resistance in such a scenario as a scumclaim.

But demanding absolutely no wiggle room, even as peta and I should be interchangeable, and as the relevant scenario isn't super likely to happen imo...

It's like he's trying to push back without looking like he's actually afraid to die.

[Radical Rat]

Okay, but explain why you're adamant that peta and I aren't interchangeable. What "shenanigans" are you referring to?

The only thing scum could have that could change anything in the scenario that they first holster to create a "choice" between me and peta is a double kill of some kind, which I think we agree is pretty far fetched.

If they don't holster, and can't break the protection, there's only one of me/peta alive, and it doesn't matter what people swore to do.

If they CAN break the protection, no one's going to listen to anything I can say to defend myself when the person I'm supposed to protect dies, so you don't need to worry about deviation there.

And I was starting to doubt myself again until you insisted that I HAVE to come before peta, which is a meaningless distinction to me, and SHOULD be to you, unless you're just using it as an extra barrier to accepting your own demise

[Radical Rat]

There are worlds in which you either holster or one shot sman through a protect to indict someone who is not you. In those worlds, radrat, the player who holstered a protection on the claimed investigator who was then immediately killed dies. I don’t trust town to not fuck things up completely, so we go with the very simple plan of kill jingle, kill rat, kill peta. There is no room for interpretation or reevaluation once I’m gone and can’t respond anymore. Do you want to dispute that the plan works? Do you want to dispute the town status of any of my town core? Do you want to do literally anything other than cast shade at a plan you yourself profess faith in? No?

Okay. Then I’m going to continue advocating my plan in which I get limmed first and you have no input.

Well, you're right in that it's a fruitless argument. I still don't think you're making sense, but as long as the game ends here anyway it doesn't matter. I'll let it be.

[Radical Rat]

Really my only hangup is that peta has explicitly expressed a desire to die first, and I can't understand why Jingle cares so much that he doesn't, but also I don't believe the game will reach that point anyway, so it's whatever.

[Radical Rat]

I don't want to go into detail, but there is a correct way to use the Tracker that can create a meaningful result, regardless of any fucking that occurs.

Hopefully it won't come down to that though.

[Radical Rat]

Wait I thought we agreed I was on HPE and Adorable does wgeurts

[Radical Rat]

Eliminating in a player who failed their protection because of a strongman looks manipulative.

Do you agree to lim me then rat then peta in that order and protect wgeurts? Y/N

???

[Radical Rat]

I'm afraid of an uncharacteristically fast twilight so I am just going to say now, unless Adorable comes back and requests otherwise...

I AM PROTECTING HPE
ADORABLE SHOULD PROTECT WGEURTS

[Radical Rat]

It wasn't for sowing confusion, it's because I got too caught up in proving you were scum even though I didn't actually have to. I was paranoid, and unless you're trolling now, I was clearly wrong, and that's my bad. Even if you are scum, it's true that me arguing with you was pointless until you actually did try to wiggle out of it, but I got too far ahead of myself. Sorry about that.

As for the night actions, my reasoning for preferring Adorable protect wgeurts is because I fully expect that if scum has the ability to pierce protection, they will use it to frame me. wgeurts is higher priority to keep alive, so that makes sense, and it's what I thought we had most recently agreed on.

As of right now, I will respect the big scary bold text, but I do think it's sub-optimal.

[Radical Rat]

I do also want to say I was NOT "pushing back" on the plan. I was pushing back about specifically your inflexibility, because it didn't (and doesn't) make sense.

But whatever, if I'm right about redirector we lose, and if I'm wrong we win, so.

Cheers for me hopefully being an idiot!

[Radical Rat]

I honestly expected to see a death happen. Would have let them win tonight.

Maybe whatever they had was one-shot and they wasted it on Fate?

Suppose it doesn't matter now.

VOTE: petapan

Yeah, I know Jingle wanted me to die first, but you've got the votes to do that already, and I'd still rather eliminate the actual scum. And from my point of view, this confirms peta as scum, because he was unprotected and killing him would have made me the only viable elimination, winning the game.

And I'm disappointed. The kind of AtE that's been deployed is really straddling a line of morality, and I'd wanted to believe that wasn't the case. Don't worry, I'll happily abide by your request to not play with you again.

[Radical Rat]

I'm willing to talk through it. If I'm wrong I want to know too.

Why do you think scum holstered last night?

[Radical Rat]

In the case that neither of us is scum, shooting into the PoE is good, because a successful kill ends the game earlier, and everyone else is townreading each other enough to probably believe we made a WIFOM kill over any alternative scenarios.

And if scum has a way of mitigating protection, wgeurts should be dead.

Holstering means scum wants me to be the elimination, as that was the plan in place, and I likely lack the charisma to change that plan, but doesn't want to kill you for some reason.


In your magical scenario though... what we missed would be HPE, probably.

[Radical Rat]

it just hit me that scum shooting at fate could have been intended to prevent HPE from getting a useful result at all - hypothetically if RR is town they'd have been expecting the protection on fate and so a tracker result of no action isn't even meaningful if there was no kill

Why risk being seen visiting Fate at all then? Why not just holster if that's the plan?

[Radical Rat]

In the case that neither of us is scum, shooting into the PoE is good, because a successful kill ends the game earlier, and everyone else is townreading each other enough to probably believe we made a WIFOM kill over any alternative scenarios.

And if scum has a way of mitigating protection, wgeurts should be dead.

Holstering means scum wants me to be the elimination, as that was the plan in place, and I likely lack the charisma to change that plan, but doesn't want to kill you for some reason.


In your magical scenario though... what we missed would be HPE, probably.

really? why lol

Because it's the only claim that doesn't have any supporting evidence. Adorable we know is at least Loved, and while my role hasn't successfully blocked anyone (unless scum tried to shoot wgeurts last night), the expectation of a block and failure to do so correctly identified Cerb as a roleblocker.

Meanwhile, HPE's claim is... not impossible, but odd. Does Daisy make sense as a UB? I can't really think of anything better, but it certainly doesn't fit as neatly as everyone else's has. And tracking wgeurts is a strange choice that doesn't make much sense to me. But it doesn't really make sense for that to be the lie you make as scum either.

So while at present I don't think that's the case, if I were to receive a divine revelation that you were innocent... HPE's the only answer I've got.

[Radical Rat]

In the case that neither of us is scum, shooting into the PoE is good, because a successful kill ends the game earlier, and everyone else is townreading each other enough to probably believe we made a WIFOM kill over any alternative scenarios.

And if scum has a way of mitigating protection, wgeurts should be dead.

Holstering means scum wants me to be the elimination, as that was the plan in place, and I likely lack the charisma to change that plan, but doesn't want to kill you for some reason.


In your magical scenario though... what we missed would be HPE, probably.

well, what would be your reaction if i'd been NKed last night?


or let's look at it from anther angle: what would you have done as scum?

If you were killed, my vote's locked on HPE today.

If I were scum in this situation, I kill wgeurts, and double down on my redirector theory, with my primary defense being "Why the fuck would I frame myself?" and park on you.

[Radical Rat]

And see, I agree with that too. That's why it being scum is contingent upon you being Town, because at that point... I have to be wrong somewhere.

[Radical Rat]

So let's turn the question on you then. If I'm Town, and it's not HPE, I presume your choice would be Adorable, yeah? Why?

[Radical Rat]

When I say has a way of mitigating protection, I mean present tense.

At this point I think it is plausible that scum had a one shot strongman or other such role that they wasted thinking Fate would be protected, but if they still had a way to do that, there's no reason for them not to kill here is my point.

[Radical Rat]

When I say has a way of mitigating protection, I mean present tense.

At this point I think it is plausible that scum had a one shot strongman or other such role that they wasted thinking Fate would be protected, but if they still had a way to do that, there's no reason for them not to kill here is my point.

also not implausible but at the same time a strongman feels ~weird~ with the powerups given it could seemingly potentially nullify them which would be...i don't want to say bad design but it'd be a little bit of a slap in the face to have this public vote that scum can completely work around

although i guess the roleblocker could do that as well but then the question is how much power do scum need

That's why I was thinking redirector yesterday. Fits with the presumption of ghost flavor, and I can protect against that, as can the Tanuki, but it can be circumvented if scum is able to quickly identify the relevant PRs.

It's still a weird amount of power, but there is a level of integration with the setup, while strongman just... ignores everything. If there was a strongman, no way it wasn't one-shot at least.

[Radical Rat]

Well, best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

HPE, obviously track peta tonight, Adorable protect wgeurts.

[Radical Rat]

Well, best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

HPE, obviously track peta tonight, Adorable protect wgeurts.

Wouldn't it be better to protect me and ensure the track goes through? This one knows you kinda suspect me but that seems like the better option, mechanics wise.

It's better to make sure we have conftown alive in ELo. If scum shoots you to prevent the track, that removes unnecessary paranoia, and if they keep you alive to maintain that paranoia, you get the result anyway. And even if they holster, you should still see Adorable visit wgeurts, which reinforces her claim.

[Radical Rat]

Also not sure what you mean by "paranoia" cause like, yeah, there's technically nothing that confs me, but you're the only one really doubting the claim here. That's YOUR paranoia dude.

Adorable has expressed concern as well

[Radical Rat]

Wait I confused myself and mixed together multiple plan ideas

[Radical Rat]

If you track peta, you wouldn't see Adorable visit, that was from when I was still expecting a redirector to happen, because in all permutations of that setup you can piece together what happened.

[Radical Rat]

Well, best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

HPE, obviously track peta tonight, Adorable protect wgeurts.

Wouldn't it be better to protect me and ensure the track goes through? This one knows you kinda suspect me but that seems like the better option, mechanics wise.

It's better to make sure we have conftown alive in ELo. If scum shoots you to prevent the track, that removes unnecessary paranoia, and if they keep you alive to maintain that paranoia, you get the result anyway. And even if they holster, you should still see Adorable visit wgeurts, which reinforces her claim.

HPE would have to out a result anyway which would result in a conftown

If it's Town, and scum shoots, sure. But you were the one who said scum would holster in that scenario and the track would be useless, were you not?

[Radical Rat]

It's not SUPER important, peta probably dies tomorrow regardless of what happens, but I do value the life of actual conftown over a tracker not likely to actually get a result anyway.

[Radical Rat]

Basically my thinking is if scum holsters, no point in protecting HPE anyway, and if they kill it, that's just one less contingency to worry about, and we still win anyway.

[Radical Rat]

wgeurts is the only potential flip we learn absolutely nothing from, and as such is the flip that should be prevented the most.

[Radical Rat]

Then is there any reason to drag this out?

[Radical Rat]

I'll reiterate that I believe wgeurts is the correct protection target, as the only zero information flip scum has available. Whether you choose to actually do that or not is up to you.

In the meantime, I'll be preparing to face my ghosts in hell tonight

[Radical Rat]

I'll reiterate that I believe wgeurts is the correct protection target, as the only zero information flip scum has available. Whether you choose to actually do that or not is up to you.

In the meantime, I'll be preparing to face my ghosts in hell tonight

adorable should be protecting hpe and hpe should be tracking me, end of story

that is beyond obvious

Why? You've said yourself you expect the tracker to do nothing because scum holsters. Did you change your mind about respecting the scumteam's intelligence? What benefit is there to keeping HPE alive over wgeurts otherwise?

[Radical Rat]

As long as you're Town, I don't have any problem beyond it being mildly frustrating. I was kind of a dick too, shit happens sometimes.

My issue is only if you're scum, in which case acting offended and making me feel like shit for accusing you is a line I don't like to see crossed.

But I'll leave discussing that for after the game if it's applicable.

[Radical Rat]

I'll reiterate that I believe wgeurts is the correct protection target, as the only zero information flip scum has available. Whether you choose to actually do that or not is up to you.

In the meantime, I'll be preparing to face my ghosts in hell tonight

adorable should be protecting hpe and hpe should be tracking me, end of story

that is beyond obvious

Why? You've said yourself you expect the tracker to do nothing because scum holsters. Did you change your mind about respecting the scumteam's intelligence? What benefit is there to keeping HPE alive over wgeurts otherwise?

in the event scum DOES submit a NK then HPE will have a result of no action on me, this is obviously good

if they don't submit a NK then we're at MELO and the actions won't matter

from my pov if adorable is protecting wgeurts and you're not scum it opens up the possibility of whoever is scum shooting hpe and taking me to a 1v1, and i actually do not want that

you're kind of talking in circles here, it's not hard - in the event that scum submits a kill, i want a 100% guarantee hpe has to claim a result on me

If HPE has a result on you, it's gonna be a guilty, and you're in that 1v1 anyway. But you've already made it clear that scum holstering is correct play, which means if you're scum you know that, and if you aren't, scum can read. The only way HPE gets a result tonight is if it's scum and is worried people might change their mind on you.

Keeping a conftown alive is infinitely more valuable than a dud track. And with HPE vulnerable, the question of whether scum should kill becomes an actual question.

[Radical Rat]

o7

Do the right thing tonight/tomorrow please. We're almost there, don't get complacent, think things through, but don't let scum talk you out of the truth either.

This is still very winnable

[Radical Rat]

I agree, it's far more likely than not to be peta, with HPE as a secondary possibility. Adorable would probably be worst case scenario, but I don't really see her as scum here at all.

[Radical Rat]

Hence why I don't see her as scum at all

[Radical Rat]

Nah, I don't do twilight trolling.

[Radical Rat]

Can you stop ending the day early like that.

Eh, it doesn't really matter in this case. Would have just been a week and a half of talking in circles around fringe scenarios when we all already know what's happening.

[Radical Rat]

For the record, I think this night action plan is probably good.

[Radical Rat]

Fair enough, but I think we got enough out of this personally.

[Radical Rat]

Bah, etc.

[Radical Rat]

As much as I want to be salty, this is just as much my fault as anyone else's, and I can't pretend I wasn't fooled also (until it was too late to matter anyway), so instead...

Great work HPE. You earned the win.

And apologies to Fate and Jingle, neither of you should have died

[Radical Rat]

Though I guess HPE probably used its strongman anyway, so eh. Either way, it was a foolish gamble

[Radical Rat]

As much as I want to be salty, this is just as much my fault as anyone else's, and I can't pretend I wasn't fooled also (until it was too late to matter anyway), so instead...

Great work HPE. You earned the win.

And apologies to Fate and Jingle, neither of you should have died

Next time use the mechanically optimal route of doc saving eh?

I definitely misplayed there, though in this case it was a strongman kill anyway, so nothing would have changed.

I should have followed my paranoia onto HPE instead of Jingle, but slightly odd but potentially useful fakeclaims continue to be a weakness of mine.