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Post #17 (isolation #0) » Wed Nov 01, 2023 5:41 am
Postby Dunnstral »
Isis described this as an open setup in sign-ups. I do believe we are all vanilla except the double vote, and then we have the option to spare or fight.
It seems like if we choose to fight, this setup is pretty close to mountainous.
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Post #51 (isolation #3) » Wed Nov 01, 2023 6:11 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 48, Brown Eyes wrote:
I also would have voted Dunn for the record, but primarily for the subtle way in which his very first post was to recommend that he be saved.
In post 48, Brown Eyes wrote:
I also would have voted Dunn for the record, but primarily for the subtle way in which his very first post was to recommend that he be saved.
What do you mean...
Can you elaborate on what you don't understand about what I said there?
I thought I simply died on day 3 regardless of what route we went for. I did not realize sparing was good for me.
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Post #104 (isolation #9) » Wed Nov 01, 2023 6:49 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 100, Keyleth wrote:
Plus with the whole mercy route that works in favor cause all you gotta do is find the super duper obvious people and yay! You win.
Although I guess you could go the fight route but I just assumed everyone like me joined for the mercy route.
Look at this:
In post 2, Isis wrote:
If Mercy is chosen, for the rest of the game subsequent eliminations are flavored as sparings and town wins if town spares four townies and loses if it spares two mafia.
In post 2, Isis wrote:
The day 3 elimination is Toriel.
This is what I initially missed, if we spare then I end up as one of the spared people, rather than simply leaving the game. So you're not supposed to know what route we are going for yet.
In post 77, Dunnstral wrote:
I believe I've played 1 game with them before. I don't like that they voted for somebody who hadn't posted.
We’ve played 2 games together before (Invictus also happened), I tend to vote for non-posters when opening, I like broadening our horizons rather than laser focusing on the handful of slots present at game start, especially if I’m not going to be super present in the few hours after game start
I don't agree with the philosophy here but appreciate the explanation.
In post 132, Dunnstral wrote:
We're not preparing for the mercy route yet though, we're trying to figure out who to eliminate for today and tomorrow.
You know I had a really stupid question but instead of embarrassing myself I'm going to simply say you are correct. Do you also townread everyone or does no one give you reason to vote them?
In post 100, Keyleth wrote:
Plus with the whole mercy route that works in favor cause all you gotta do is find the super duper obvious people and yay! You win.
Although I guess you could go the fight route but I just assumed everyone like me joined for the mercy route.
Look at this:
In post 2, Isis wrote:
If Mercy is chosen, for the rest of the game subsequent eliminations are flavored as sparings and town wins if town spares four townies and loses if it spares two mafia.
In post 2, Isis wrote:
The day 3 elimination is Toriel.
This is what I initially missed, if we spare then I end up as one of the spared people, rather than simply leaving the game. So you're not supposed to know what route we are going for yet.
Is this confirmed? I thought toriel went no matter what. 'eliminations are flavored as sparings' , so even if you're spared you're still out right?
Yes but if we spare I count towards one of the sparings. So it would be bad if I were mafia. Mechanically, that's the only reason we would not spare in this setup.
In post 171, Keyleth wrote:
After that post from Mandate I feel even more content to vote the mercy route!
This makes no sense to say. I'm not saying I think you're scum for saying it, I haven't decided on you yet. I'm saying it literally makes no sense when it was just spelled out that we go mercy if we think Toriel is town, we don't if we think Toriel is scum. Mandate's thoughts on your shouldn't affect this at all.
I have no reason to not think Dunnstral is town right now, and with the points I gave Mandate it makes me feel even better. All you need is two more to win the game, right? It's easier to find townies then it is to find wolves. At least, to me it is!
Only nights 1-3 are skipped, the whole game is not nightless. Mafia can kill people before we can spare them.
In post 271, Keyleth wrote:
This doesn't help Sakura as a wolf though, does it?
what doesn't
If you're a wolf you want to be townread so you go over or push some wrong villagers but Sakura is just, doing neither? Unless that's the point to get townread but that's wifom ya know?
This feels kind of reductive? Wolves post to have thread presence, to be engaged in the game, to have fun... pushing agenda is nice but not every single wolf post is anchored on that and not every wolf post has deep and complex connotations. Wolves absolutely just post random thoughts to look more engaged, which tend to make you look more townie (or at the very least less appealing to lim), and nothing in Sakura's posting indicates that she isn't
trying
to be townread. Wraps around to the classic "if I'm a wolf, how come I'm not being townread?" argument, as if getting townread is this guaranteed thing to gain with certain posts rather than something that wolves fail at a bunch.
I agree with this. Also this is some strong posting...
In post 335, Dunnstral wrote:
Going to throw out some wild reads. Brown Eyes, Meuh, Mandate, Taly, Keyleth, Merlyn are townies.
Can you go into detail a bit more about the first two for me, please?
pedit: Wait, I thought I was a wolf now I need to find them?!
Well for Brown Eyes I liked their early thoughts on the setup in 27 and 44. Post 59 seems inquisitive, and then post 149 seems unlikely to come from mafia as I find mafia usually have a harder time understanding information like this, especially when pairing it to people who haven't posted yet.
For Meuh I like posts 288 and 315, and note how she townreads Sakura anyway in post 321, which would be an odd thing to do as mafia given their argument to you which is actually based on the theory.
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Post #451 (isolation #22) » Thu Nov 02, 2023 4:42 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 425, beeboy wrote:
@Dunn r any of these alts you know who and which one
According to the game rules, specifically common rule #8, we are not to speak vaguely so as to have a private conversation in public using previously known information from before the game.
That is where I am at right now. Perhaps needs some refining as I feel I have too many players as towny. I don't want to default to voting Alisae today due to activity.
Yes, except I'm a double voter and there is no night kill. We get one more elimination tomorrow where I am a normal voter which also does not have a night kill before we move on to spare/kill.
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Post #574 (isolation #30) » Thu Nov 02, 2023 11:24 am
Postby Dunnstral »
My read on Keyleth is based on the feeling that they really misunderstood the setup, and that relies on the thought that mafia are more likely to understand it as they would have had time to talk about it, but that is not infallible logic as it is based on an assumption.
Lazy Shirou I liked their posts spanning from 378 to 449, but I am wary about them because I think they are capable of trickery and I don't have a good read on them. On second thoughts I really like posts 378 and 449 so I would move them out of the 'least confident' designation.
Merlyn simply does not have a lot of content, and this was pretty much a pure tone read.
In post 400, Aristeia wrote:
im p confident I could win this game if it was like just a straight up sparing game and I got to be dictator
Who would you spare at this point Aristeia?
Include 6 names because mafia kill 3 times in between the spares. You can include yourself but not me.
probably Sakura? wouldn't really be sure atp. Think its probably a bad idea to consider more than one name at a time for the spare route because you'd just giving mafia nightkill targets.
I think your confidence in post 400 was unfounded.
, this isnt too necessary but why do you feel strongly on me being town?
i find it interesting i got a lot of townreads after i left the thread because the consensus was that i was aligned with
Key
before i did
Well I never thought you were aligned with Keyleth and I like to form my opinions. I think you are an emotional player as town and your posting some time after the start of the game made me think you were much more likely to be town than mafia.
In post 400, Aristeia wrote:
im p confident I could win this game if it was like just a straight up sparing game and I got to be dictator
Who would you spare at this point Aristeia?
Include 6 names because mafia kill 3 times in between the spares. You can include yourself but not me.
probably Sakura? wouldn't really be sure atp. Think its probably a bad idea to consider more than one name at a time for the spare route because you'd just giving mafia nightkill targets.
I think your confidence in post 400 was unfounded.
well I usually am pretty good when I do things one step at a time and if I was a dictator with the ability to interrogate people for a week I'd probably be able to confidently find 1 town at a time.
I think its probably true I am more confident then I should be but I like to believe in myself.
In post 606, implosion wrote:
There's an argument that if we're going the spare game route then it can be valuable to keep at least *some* reads close to our chests, or probably more importantly that once we start sparing, we all collectively frequently re-evaluate. I say this because one framing (I think Mandate was implying this framing earlier) is that we can think of the spare game as all collectively making a town->scum ordering and just sparing the top townie in that ordering every day. But if we make that list public then scum killing the top of that list is more impactful than it is in a normal game, because every time they kill someone, we can no longer spare that person.
OK fellas. Right now for the elimination I am thinking one of the names in my bottom group here:
In post 584, Dunnstral wrote:
Strong town: Brown Eyes, Meuh, Taly, Mandate, Shirou
Soft town: Sakura, Implosion, Keyleth, Merlyn
Except I don't like the idea of voting the least active player, so perhaps not Alisae. Beeboy also has a low post count but they made one big post which looked over the game so they are fair game IMO.
They posted "Dunn is one of the most important slots to discuss" but then didn't feel the need to do that themselves after, really.
I think other players have been townier so they are in my PoE. I am not able to get a good grasp of how Beeboy arrived to their conclusions, even after reading their post.
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Post #679 (isolation #44) » Thu Nov 02, 2023 12:58 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 674, Mandate wrote:
Oddly enough people are saying stuff like Sakura Hana is the easiest player in the game to read but I think our #1 loss condition is Sakura+Dunn being 2 scum here and I'm actually very stressed about it
Aristeia is having trouble figuring out what to say for reads even when prodded. Am willing to give them time though.
The majority of Dannflor's iso is pushing Keyleth and reevaluating Keyleth. They've garnerd a few townreads but I have to assume they are easily within a range where they could be mafia and making these posts. I am not townreading them after a lot of posts which is something at least.
do you actually have reads? i see a lot of explaining on your end that im not getting any defintiive stance from
Mandate hardest town read
Merlyn, Dunn, you, Sakura, also town
Dann, Ari, Shirou, Key, Implo, I've absorbed some of their posting but don't have a good grasp there
Brown Eyes, Alisae and Beeboy exist I think?
🗞️ bonk
Having a low post count is not a good reason to be suspecting 3 people, and only suspecting those people
i get the impression you're distancing from a stance on me, is that correct?
Not actively but I definitely don't feel especially confident on my read of you. I am still inclined to call you scum bc I don't really buy the reasons I've seen for you as town as much as the bulk of the field and I think there are some reasons to see you as scummy but it's a read with no real confidence whatsoever.
How about this then. Taly is trying to get people to explain their stances and pushing people then changing their mind and voting elsewhere. Do you see this as scum controlling the thread vs town trying to sort things out?
do you actually have reads? i see a lot of explaining on your end that im not getting any defintiive stance from
Mandate hardest town read
Merlyn, Dunn, you, Sakura, also town
Dann, Ari, Shirou, Key, Implo, I've absorbed some of their posting but don't have a good grasp there
Brown Eyes, Alisae and Beeboy exist I think?
🗞️ bonk
Having a low post count is not a good reason to be suspecting 3 people, and only suspecting those people
I'm not suspecting them, they're just there. I'm scumreading nobody
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Post #733 (isolation #52) » Thu Nov 02, 2023 1:21 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 725, implosion wrote:
i think dannflor's first 10 or however many pages were really town, i'm not interested in voting for dannflor unless time passes and he falls off (which could happen but time has not yet passed).
I think Dannflor's first few posts were very light on content and accusing someone of conveniently pushing toriel is something they can easily do as mafia.
I think they are giving their opinions as best they can, and I can follow their thought process. They have a believable view of the game and I think they would have tried to be "smarter" about their read on me if they were mafia.
I think they are giving their opinions as best they can, and I can follow their thought process. They have a believable view of the game and I think they would have tried to be "smarter" about their read on me if they were mafia.
Any of this a meta take? Curious
Maybe a little. I think they tend to look like an elimination target as town. Never played with them when they were mafia.
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Post #768 (isolation #56) » Thu Nov 02, 2023 1:49 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
I don't really think Dannflor is maliciously not posting right now, I think they are just away. Instead I think they are a good vote because as Shirou put it they looked superficially good.
In post 793, Mandate wrote:
There's not even that much hesitation there's just a lot of people that I'm already never changing my read on to the point that the people who are just below that are causing me a lot of angst
what, never? Which ones?
I'm very very sold on Dann Implo Keyleth Brown Eyes towns
I'm also very sold on Taly Sakura
I like Meuh less than the above and then you a large amount less than Meuh (but I still like you!)
I said what I said about Aristeia because I thought it was necessary but I didn't really wanna share how I feel about everyone in the scumpool until everyone in it does more
I feel like this is such a startling amount of confidence, I'm trying to decide if it's town for that or if you're just openwolfing here.
Can you share with me why you don't want to talk about how you feel about your scumreads until they do more? It'll be hard to judge your progression if you're not sharing your earlier thoughts