Toriel's Patience (end)
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oops i played board games until midnight and there's 18 pages >_>
might start catching up tonight, probably won't and will do it all tomorrow. I don't think i'll be lurking for too long in this game though.-
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2 games of terraforming mars: the dice game, followed by 1 game of everdellIn post 436, Aristeia wrote:
which board game?In post 434, implosion wrote: oops i played board games until midnight and there's 18 pages >_>
might start catching up tonight, probably won't and will do it all tomorrow. I don't think i'll be lurking for too long in this game though.-
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At some point before d2.5 or during the beginning of it I'll do the EV for each option if no one else has. It looks like the design thread doesn't have it for this version of the setup.
Gut from pages 1-4 is Dann town (though I think I remember seeing that's someone consensus?), Mandate town, Taly scummy e.g. don't really like the "is of note" at the end of 76. Noncommittal, throwing shade without actually saying that he scumreads a slot that's been doing a bunch of stuff. I thought Mandate's opening was slightly +town even from someone who is clearly gimmicking and I like the timing of the Taly vote on page 4 quite a lot. Dann is townish just for voting like 8 times in 4 pages.
I'm pretty much with Mandate until 140 which is a Bad Post. I mean it's easily Mandate lying to themself as town but the Bayesian argument against hard partner tells on page 6 is a pet peeve of mine. The sheer odds that you're right about a "x and y are partnered" read is so low (less than 4%) as to, in principle, require a huge amount of evidence to surmount. I also don't really have a read on Keyleth at this point fwiw
149 is actually an interesting post and probably true of me bc I probably would have explained things in the scum PT at some point, alas. Probably +town (maybe strongly) for Brown Eyes to point out an observation like that, it's an observation that could easily just never be made by anyone. Dunn calling Brown Eyes town shortly after this is slightly good for Dunn (who I don't really have much of a read on at this point).
167 by Mandate is also a bad post IMO (they're still town), I think making a strong assumption that scum would townbloc in this setup is sort of unfounded. Plus scum would have to actually be in the thread to do that and it's always possible that scum just hadn't entered the thread yet at that point
Through page 7 so far and I guess I'm hitting submit on what I have so far-
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221 is a pretty good point (on Keyleth being town) and probably +town a bit for Sakura. To elaborate a bit since it came into question why I think it's +town for Keyleth, the post is just very frank about what it's trying to do. I think scum on average will tend to shy away from a post that's like "hey, we already have me + x as town, who are the other two" particularly in the context of Keyleth having some heat on her. It's not a slam dunk or anything, but I think it's very easy to glance at that post and briefly *think* it's a slam dunk before you've thought it through intensely, hence Sakura is slightly townish for it (but only slightly and this paragraph is already way too long)
225 gave me a very strong gut ping about who Mandate is an alt of but i'd mostly just be amused if i was right because i am hot trash at trying to guess alts
265 is a funny post because yes, those odds are indeed terrible (EV of limming scum today + tomorrow is just above 3%... only ever so slightly lower than the a priori odds of Mandate's teamread being right)
323 by Dunn is a really interesting one. I read that post by Meuh and like, I agreed with it but the only thing it made me feel was "Meuh is skilled or experienced at the game of mafia". It didn't make me feel anything about Meuh's alignment. So I'm curious what Dunn means by calling it "strong posting", if he means what I just said or that Meuh is townish for it.
332 Hooray mandate is going through a redemption arc
Might want to revisit page 14 regarding Aristeia later but checkpointing again-
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So far I feel best about Dann and Brown Eyes and Mandate, then Keyleth, then Sakura-
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my friend, it has been about 28 hours lolIn post 499, Taly wrote: who qualifies as a lurker in a game thats gone on for maybe 3 days or less?-
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oh hey beeboy said this too. neat.In post 422, beeboy wrote: Mandate is town because Taly was giving me pings around the time they voted them.
TM dice game is quite new. Everdell is somewhat heavier and more complicated generally, but definitely a game I'd recommend to most people who like almost any sort of strategy games.In post 439, Aristeia wrote: which would you recommend between the two?
have now caught up to my first catchup-
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shirou is interesting because for whatever reason my eyes glazecompletelyover every time i start reading one of his posts. they also glaze over when reading some meuh posts but not as hard.-
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i can see 449 being townish, 378 is kind of eh though.
yesIn post 575, Lazy Shirou wrote: ARE YOU STILL GLAZING OVER THEM-
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i am excited to work with mandate in this game and i am going to be very sad if they are scum.-
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EV time.
There is one very interesting wrinkle in EV analysis of this setup, which is that if we choose a strategy on day 1 and plan to stick with it, then Dunn has flat odds of 11/14 of being town. So in the point of the calculation where we consider Dunn's probability, it's ambiguous whether we should stick 11/14 or whatever the current random odds are. I think the current odds at that point are technically the right thing to put in. It's similar to the Monty Hall problem, but the difference is that in Monty Hall you don't get any new info by opening the door but here every townie we lim does make Dunn more likely to be scum and every scum we lim does make Dunn more likely to be town. Anyhow. Gonna be rounding to nearest % at every step for convenience.
Suppose we mislim twice. Then if we choose Fight, 3/12 that we go to 2:9 mountainous (35% town win) and 9/12 that we go to 3:8 mountainous (17% town win) for about a 21% EV.
If we choose Mercy, well, there's not a wiki page already in existence to make this easy. Assuming that spares are chosen entirely at random still, as with regular EV calculation. 3/12 that Dunn is scum and we go to 2:9 sparegame. To win from there, we have to spare correctly at 11p, 9p, 7p and 5p, for total probability of (9/11) (7/9) (5/7) (3/5) = 3/11 or about 27%. In the 9/12 that Dunn is town, we go into 3:8 where we have to spare 3 times to win and scum have to spare twice. From there, 3/11 that we hit scum at which point our EV is (7/9) * (5/7) * (3/5) = 3/9. 8/11 that we go to 3:6. From there, 3/9 that our EV becomes (5/7)(3/5) = 3/7, and 6/9 that we go to 3:4 at which point scum's EV is (3/7)(2/5) = 6/35 so ours is 29/35.
All in all, the EV is this:
(3 / 12) * (3 / 11)
+
(9 / 12) * (
(3 / 11) * (3 / 9)
+
(8 / 11) * (
(3 / 9) * (3 / 7)
+
(6 / 9) * (29 / 35)
)
)
Which, if I've typed it into Google correctly, is just above 50%.
So that's definitely a very strong argument in favor of sparing Dunn. Almost regardless of his alignment - in fact, if he's scum, correctly choosing Fight instead of Mercy improves our EV from 27% to 35%, but if he's town then correctly choosing Mercy instead of Fight improves our EV from 17% to a whopping almost 60%. At those odds, we would need *incredibly* persuasive evidence that Dunn is scum to want to pick Fight over Mercy.
There are caveats. The first is that this is assuming we mislim twice (if we hit scum then we can redo this under those assumptions; i highly suspect that we'll get similar results). The second and much more important is the degree to which EVs are reliable. EVs are questionable even for regular mountainous games, but in the sparing game they're perhaps even more questionable due to the view that we'll be hemorrhaging all our best/towniest players both by sparings and by nightkills, and that we will ultimately *have* to win the game in a 2:3 or 3:4 ElO where in principle all 3 or all 4 town will have to unanimously be correct.-
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There's an argument that if we're going the spare game route then it can be valuable to keep at least *some* reads close to our chests, or probably more importantly that once we start sparing, we all collectively frequently re-evaluate. I say this because one framing (I think Mandate was implying this framing earlier) is that we can think of the spare game as all collectively making a town->scum ordering and just sparing the top townie in that ordering every day. But if we make that list public then scum killing the top of that list is more impactful than it is in a normal game, because every time they kill someone, we can no longer spare that person.-
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Ari's posting is very curious to me. It doesn't make me feel anything strongly about her alignment right now though. There's a notion in my mind of embroilment in the gamestate which makes certain players like her easier to read, and I think the game state sort of needs to marinate more before I can get much of a read on her.-
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sadly i would *probably* make that exact post as scum lol.In post 608, Dunnstral wrote: I have to wonder if you would bother with the calculations if you're mafia.
I might or might not have gotten around to it as quickly though.-
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Not actively but I definitely don't feel especially confident on my read of you. I am still inclined to call you scum bc I don't really buy the reasons I've seen for you as town as much as the bulk of the field and I think there are some reasons to see you as scummy but it's a read with no real confidence whatsoever.In post 612, Taly wrote:imploi get the impression you're distancing from a stance on me, is that correct?-
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Somewhat inclined to trust Ari on Sakura.
How meta-based is your read here? Entirely or partially?In post 630, Aristeia wrote: I guess I don't really want to explain why I'm scumreading Taly atp because explaining the read takes away the room for Taly to improve because she would then understand my thought process about what I expect town!taly to be doing.
It's like less than 2 days into the game so I'm fine letting Taly do Taly things.-
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I kind of view it as someone just enjoying the process of playing mafia either wayIn post 705, Dunnstral wrote: How about this then. Taly is trying to get people to explain their stances and pushing people then changing their mind and voting elsewhere. Do you see this as scum controlling the thread vs town trying to sort things out?
wasn't to me but mandate is extremely town in my eyes.In post 700, Aristeia wrote: explain the mandate tr plz
They have all the right stances at all the right times. The way they're thinking about the game feels right, I liked their opening, I liked the evolution of their taly+keyleth team read, I like the evolution of their stances in general, like, the townread on sakura a page or two ago is good for example-
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i think dannflor's first 10 or however many pages were really town, i'm not interested in voting for dannflor unless time passes and he falls off (which could happen but time has not yet passed).-
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there's a reason i asked ari how meta based her read is.In post 726, Taly wrote: you are correct that i am enjoying this, but thats not necessarily NAI, is it?-
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i'm almost definitely going to sheep mandate on to whoever they are about to vote-
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wound up spending a bunch of energy on board games again. alas
I think I need to not try to keep fully up with this game at the pace it's going, it'll be more productive to just do stuff in the moment.-
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played a game called expeditions, it's the sequel to scythe (which i haven't played). It seems really good
I can vaguely do stuff. i'm sort of tiredly skimming some random stuff from the past few pages right now, only sense i'm getting is a reinforcement of my townread on mandate-
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Relevantly the coalition game that I was in w Ari and Merlyn just ended today and I was scum so I have some extremely fresh scum meta, which is almost never true of me lol
I think it gave me a pretty good sense of some things from Ari to be on the lookout for as reasons to townread her. If I were a man of more patience I would go back and reread the game from forever ago where she snowed me as scum but i am not going to do that probably ever lol-
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I'm interested in Alisae once they start playing because historically, though we haven't played together in a long time, I remember Alisae being like, exceptionally good at catching me as scum to the point where at one point i was kind of afraid to sign up for a game if they were in the player list. So I have some curiosity how their read on me will be. I don't think lurking is meaningfully scummy for them though at all, in my mind they're pretty tryhard as scum though of course it's been some years.-
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survey says, mandate in 3 pages: "shit, merlyn is town"In post 1184, Mandate wrote: I'm not finished but yeah I think she is just scum here
Which is really fucking refreshing LOL-
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I mean the odds of multiple scum voting for you are probably pretty low just because I don't really see what scum would get out of voting together on you at this stage.In post 1287, beeboy wrote: Also it's kinda unfair to say I can't scum read people for voting me when its a combination of POE, you not moving and mandate who literally ignored my post in response to there read on me.
My vote right now isn't really doing anything in particular but I don't really have anywhere else I especially want to put it. I think I could be convinced to scumread Meuh potentially.-
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I think this reaction would be kind of incredible to fake as scum. Like, I've been vaguely lurking and beeboy has been talking about thinking their wagon was scum driven and so i feel like replying to beeboy jumping on me with a ???? after beeboy just listed me near the bottom of their reads list the previous page is just like, something scum who care sharply about how they're perceived would never do. I think sakura is already (widely?) townread but this cements it pretty hard for me sort of in the vein of the philosophy that I think Shirou mentioned earlier of trying to read people off a few key posts, which I think I kind of agree with or at least am interested in thinking about as a philosophy of forum mafia.In post 1307, Sakura Hana wrote: You know what, i'm not gonna ask anymore, i'm just gonna hope someone that's good at the game gives me some guidance while I figure out where my head is at.-
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I have very mixed feelings on beeboy's current trajectory. I think the part of it that I see as unlikely to come from scum is that just literally calling every single person on your wagon scum is I think a somewhat unnatural reaction to have as scum, I think as scum you get to choose what your reads are and so the normal thing to do is to like, pick a token person on your wagon whomst you will say is actually town and then lambast the rest of it. The counterpoint to this is that beeboy is coming back from a long break so I could see them theoretically being kind of lazy as scum and just falling in to pushing all the people pushing them. But I think I am tending to think it's probably town, I don't really see a good reason for scum beeboy to decide to wake up and choose violence in this way. It just kind of puts them at the center of narratives and in the spotlight and embroils them in conflict and idk what the point would be when simpler options exist.
In a dramatic turn of irony i am now going to call beeboy the only townie on my wagon (nah but i am about to call meuh scum i think)-
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i kind of despise this vote and follow-up for some reason. Possibly because I know that I'm town and so I'm tempted to just BoP the person who voted me and then immediately said that her reads are really good lately, but she's not actually calling me scum with this vote, she's aggressively not calling me scum with the very noncommittal phrasing of the vote, but then immediately saying she has really good reads? It's just like sort of mentally incongruous, she votes me in a way that seems not motivated by a read (or at least not a materially strong one, though she can correct me) but then mazkes this next post 5 minutes later about how her reads are good lately, it's just like, I don't know why she makes that comment after making a vote that strongly looks like it's just prodding a lurker to start doing something.In post 1295, Meuh wrote: I do think that I have a pretty good read record lately actually, the issue is that I'm too busy being mislimmed to do much with said reads!
Unvote
VOTE: Meuh-
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This is an interesting sentiment to me because (as I just said) i think they're really inconvenient reads to have as scum.In post 1323, Lazy Shirou wrote: i guess you can try to argue (and many already have) that beeboy's readlist is kinda "convenient" with for example me that is defending them at the top along with the universal town Taly, and most people voting him at the bottom.
however my own readlist would be similar enough to his so i don't have an issue with it.
For reference, if you are town and you sample 5 random people in a list of the 13 other players in the game, 3 of whom are scum, the probability of there being 2 or 3 scum in that group of 5 is about 31% (namely, (3 * 10 choose 3 + 10 choose 2) / 13 choose 5). So yeah it's not awful odds. But it's also not really actionable to say "i think there are 2 scum in this group of 5" because even if you're right, you still only have a 40% chance of hitting scum.In post 1318, beeboy wrote: I think the actual odds of there being 2 scum in a sample of 5 random people is actually pretty high as well :V
I wanna say stuff about Merlyn but I think I might need more data to read her, I feel like if she's scum she's going to be playing in a way where she's very aware that her play will be getting compared to coalition so she'd be trying to replicate that so I'm not super confident on her atm but I would like to be more confident on her-
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In post 1269, Aristeia wrote: he feels like he's being a wallflower and his comments about being busy with board games reminds me of his comments about being busy traveling.
i dont want to be uncharitable and come down hard on him because he's such a nice guy and the deadlines are pretty long so I am just waiting to see what he does atp.
I think i got distracted by something else shortly after you popped in. I don't remember if I actually posted this or if I just typed it up and then didn't post it but I am kind of expecting my fervor for this game to wax and wane somewhat arbitrarily - I am very much interested in the game and enthusiastic to play it on some level (which should be evidenced by this page of the thread, because I have a lot of thoughts buzzing in my head at this exact moment even though I should sleep soon) but some combination of real life and, importantly, the fact that this thread is going Too Fucking Fast most of the time is making it hard to maintain that level of interest with any consistency.In post 1270, Aristeia wrote: the ev calculations about sparing dunnstral felt kind of nice and reminded me of our guardians game together but he doesn't feel like he wants to be here.
when he said he wanted to interact in realtime i popped in to talk to him and he just didnt feel like he was very enthuiastic to interact with me.
I don't know how I actually feel about interacting in real time in general, I think at one point in my life I probably thought it was a weakness of my scum game but it doesn't like, excite me at all on day one in a 14 player game. To me it's a tool to use once there's a bunch of stuff out there and a history to the game to really hash out with someone, and we're not at that stage yet. D1 is sort of a weakness of mine as town anyway, I think my d1 reads are very often mediocre to terrible and I was very much describing (or trying to describe) my towngame accurately in coalition when I said I like to rely on townreads early on and then audit them later. It's very very common for me to go all of d1 without getting a single real scumread. When I do get d1 scumreads I don't think they're especially accurate. I think my reads tend to get fairly significantly better as the game goes on though.-
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Anyway. Let's wrap up the post chain with a summary of where I'm at with everyone.
Very Much Locktown: Mandate, Sakura. It'd take a hell of a lot to convince me away from either of them.
Town: Brown Eyes, Keyleth
Probably Town but not as confident as above: beeboy, Dunn (only townread I think I haven't talked about at all yet, but kind of a gut feels-like-he's-playing-like-i-remember-his-towngame-looking)
Town, but will need to be audited sooner than other townreads: Dannflor
Town, but I still have reservations: Taly
Still gotta sort: Ari, Merlyn, Alisae
Also in the still gotta sort tier, but I'm choosing to put him separately not because I think he's scummier than the other people in the tier but because it'll make him angry: Shirou
I saw a thing I don't like and don't remember seeing anything I thought was particularly town but I am definitely going to go look over more stuff later: Meuh-
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mm. Not sure how i feel about the slot then. (and yeah as meuh points out, not sure why i missed you mentioning this, i guess i was partially skimming but it was late so maybe i was just tired)In post 1333, Dunnstral wrote: They called Taly town and the rest mafia.
You seem like the sort of person who's willing to put a lot of effort into a scum game, I haven't played with you before, the town things I've seen from you aren't ironclad and you did ping me early.
Partially, it's also partially just the whims of nature that I happened to feel like looking into some stuff yesterday, but I am absolutely a player who tends to get off my ass when there are votes on me sometimes.In post 1336, Taly wrote: and would you say it is accurate your recent activity is due to the wagon formation?
because i simply did not see post 1293.In post 1347, Meuh wrote: 1295 was a reflection I had on 1293, not an assertion that I have good reads and therefore should be followed on you. Kind of confused why you thought it was?-
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See, this is my problem with this sort of game. Everyone in this list is competent enough to shed suspicion from themself.In post 1348, Taly wrote: wait that was a decent post frommeuh
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
This is an interesting point but I think this is just how I think about games? I like working with people and thinking about consensus townreads and trying to find people that aren't consensus townreads to bring up to that status. For example this post I found by going into a game where I remember playing like this and ctrl+f'ing for "consensus".In post 1352, Meuh wrote:In post 464, implosion wrote: Gut from pages 1-4 is Dann town (though I think I remember seeing that's someone consensus?)
Anyone else find this scummy? Implo invoking how much a player is already being townread/thread consensus on an issue when posting his take on it is kind of off to me. It's not really a consideration I have when posting reads as town. It comes more from scum thinking about the optics and the ramifications of their read than a townie just dropping some thoughts.In post 1327, implosion wrote: I think sakura is already (widely?) townread but this cements it pretty hard for me sort of in the vein of the philosophy that I think Shirou mentioned earlier of trying to read people off a few key posts, which I think I kind of agree with or at least am interested in thinking about as a philosophy of forum mafia.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I think I have done things that "should" be town indicative. Off the top of my head, the way I townread Brown Eyes is something I think I'd have avoided saying as scum.
I mean, sort of? I think the additional words are important for why I think it's the kind of townread that you ought to be locktowned for rather than just townread for.In post 1357, Sakura Hana wrote: Isn't this kinda the same reason people mentioned about this being my towngame a long time ago but in a lot more words?:
Gonna pick apart Meuh's wallpost on me sort of bit by bit. I sort of assume most of it is "this is why this thing is fakeable" and probably a lot of it is accurate at that level.
This is interesting because in response to you saying I've done nothing town indicative my read on Brown Eyes was the mainIn post 1362, Meuh wrote: The Brown Eyes townread is probably the best read Implo has, but 1. I think it's something he could still notice and then comment on, and 2. it's a read based off of a singular post.tangiblething I could think of that I think I probably wouldn't have done as scum. Specifically because it's a strong read based off of a singular post with a specific insight that if I hadn't made it, it may never have been made - essentially for the same reason that I was townreading that post from Brown Eyes themself.
3 points here. 1, it shouldn't actually feel more or less townie because it isn't any easier to fake as scum; I could consider that whole bunch of other posts as scum just as easily as I could as town. 2, can't find the post specifically right now but I mentioned earlier that Shirou made a post earlier this game that has made me think about framing things in these terms, and so I've been thinking about them more lately (this isn't especially relevant to the Brown Eyes read because I think it was after I saw that). 3, and I cannot stress this enough, this game has been going Too Fucking Fast. I don't have the will to go to sleep and wake up to however many pages and digest them all fully every time.In post 1362, Meuh wrote: it's interesting the way that Implo is laser focusing on a single post, I think it makes it easier for him to argue a scumread but also feels less townie because well, there's a whole bunch of other posts to consider!
This feels like a pretty extreme case of mistaking playstyle for alignment. Like, I use reasoning about specific things in my posts as the basis for my reads... so I'm scum? Like, the fuck? Read any game I've ever played as either alignment and you'll see that. If anything it's just how I feel I'm most rhetorically effective.In post 1362, Meuh wrote: It's always specific things being pointed out and being the reasoning for reads, which seems to me to come more from scum trying to make sure their reads are understood to be about a thing in particular.
Okay, now I'm getting frustrated. When I explain why Sakura is town and mention that she's a consensus townread, it's scummy. When I explain why Mandate is town but don't mention that they're a consensus townread, it's scummy. Am I not allowed to have opinions about consensus townreads? Like, you say this about consensus townreads:In post 1362, Meuh wrote: This read is less specific ("the way they're thinking about the game", "evolution of stances"), though I think Implo going out of his way to explain why a widely townread player is town isn't the best look?
And now you say this:It's not really a consideration I have when posting reads as town.
As though itI think Implo going out of his way to explain why a widely townread player is town isn't the best look?shouldbe a consideration that I have when posting reads as town, because it's scummy to post a townread on someone who is already consensus town.
Also it was literally in response to Ari who had asked someone to explain the Mandate read? How is it relevant that I'm explaining why a widely townread player is town when someone literally asked for an explanation. This is inane.
I think this is mostly fair; town do in fact often change their minds and scum are often I think bad at replicating that process naturally so they try to leave the door open explicitly. I can entirely see that reading of my stance on Dannflor. Town do also do this, though. As I said earlier, insofar as your post is trying to say "implosion's ISO is fakeable by scum", I would agree that this isn't something that I'm specifically more likely to post as town but it is absolutely something that I can (and in this case, did) post as town.In post 1362, Meuh wrote: Just kind of reiterating that read without anything new, but making sure to keep the door open for a future vote. So like all this accomplishes is setting things up so Implo can vote for Dann later? Which is also something Implo ends up saying about me. Can't say I'm a big fan of these posts anticipating votes instead of just voting when it feels right to. Feels overly careful.
There's a few interesting meta factors between me and Ari at play here. We just played a game where I was scum and she was town where she never really found me. Historically, when we're both town, I think what usually has happened is that Ari becomes absolutely convinced that I'm scum at some point early, pushes me, I become very frustrated at her and then sometimes we find each other as town. I might be misremembering very easily because, been a while since I've played much. So there is probably part of me that is actually scared of her. But my stance on her right now is that in the game we just played, even though she was scum I feel like I saw a kernel of some way to accurately read her, which I think I'm historically not great at (there was a game a while ago where she absolutely snowed me as scum) and so I'm sort of in a waiting mode to see if she acts how I want to see her act as the game progresses.In post 1362, Meuh wrote: He acts all murky about Ari for a while, then says he can have better reasons to townread her now, and then doesn't elaborate. Only been 24 hours tbf but his positioning around Ari is definitely odd. Feels like he's scared of her.
I actually genuinely think that as scum there's a chance I would have gone and double checked who was on the wagon before posting that point. I'm usually a lot more willing to just hit the submit button without double checking anything as town. It's something I try to do as scum just because I often do it as town but yeah me missing these posts is indicative of me having finally felt like wanting to catch up into the game and trying to digest however many pages I needed to in a reasonable amount of time.In post 1362, Meuh wrote: I think Implo not noticing the mention that Taly had been on the Beeboy wagon and that Beeboy was townreading her isn't a very good look... feels odd to drop a read like this but then also just not see 1281 which is quite literally 2 pages earlier, and right after Beeboy's readlist.
Brown Eyes is a strong read based on a single post; nothing else has really changed that.In post 1362, Meuh wrote: Brown Eyes and Keyleth seemingly haven't changed in Implo's eyes since like his second post?
Keyleth is a player I haven't really focused on recently but I felt pretty good about the early stuff. This is just how my reads go sometimes, especially in what is, for me, quite a large game.
"Notice" is a weird word here. I wanted to explain my reads (for other people, but also for myself! I very often reference my past reads as town) and remembered (not "noticed") that i hadn't talked about Dunn at all. Don't see why that's weird for town to do.In post 1362, Meuh wrote: I think the specific mention of the Dunn townread not being spoken about yet is another one of those things that could theoretically be said by town, but that I think scum are more likely to notice.
I think this is kind of fair but I expect (if you're town who is able to read me accurately) that this feeling would go away as I continue to play the game because my reads are going to change over time, especially after day one. (And fwiw I don't think I should be "given a pass" for d1, I think I should be not eliminated today because I'm town and am showing that, alas)In post 1362, Meuh wrote: Him elaborating on that read but not some of the older reads that he hasn't touched on in ages very much gives that scummy feel of a player sticking to exactly what's been said before and only deviating on an explicit mention of the contrary.-
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I am inclined to call this a town post specifically for the statement that it's being said as she puts groceries away. I think this would feel like a possibly risky thing to post as scum while not really reading closely and it shows that the game is on her mind in the way that it's I think more likely to be as town.In post 1373, Keyleth wrote: I can see that we're starting to get a tad divided and while that's probably good if we can sit down and calculate the exact meaning, right now it's a tad challenging. I wanna catch up and comment on a few things but right now this is just at the front of my mind and I wanted to get the thought out as I put my groceries away.
I have to say that Meuh's case on me is making me feel self-conscious about posting reads - not like I'm going to not do it, but like, fuck, am I allowed to call this post from Keyleth town when most people already think Keyleth is town???
Unless things have changed since like 5 years ago or however long it's been since I've seen Alisae play, this is false, but obviously they could have changed.
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Why do you think the case on me is town-indicative for Meuh? You describe it as a "case that looks decent", but why is a decent case something that's more likely to be posted by town than by scum? I mentioned earlier that my early impression of Meuh was that she's a broadly competent player, even if she is town I am absolutely certain that she could have posted that case on me as scum.In post 1401, Sakura Hana wrote: wasn't townreading Meuh initially until the implosion case
This is certainly a straightforwardly cogent explanation for Meuh casing me. The fact that I am (or at least was iirc, I guess with Sakura voting me maybe less so?) being sort of townread specifically by the other consensus townreads, while I have also beenIn post 1377, Keyleth wrote: If I am under the current assumption that the townblock in my head is mostly correct, someone needs to make jabs at it or villagers to remove it, and right now Meuh is fitting that bill. Maybe we just disagree, and that would be great if you could help show that to me?relativelydisengaged, would make me an appealing target in the gamestate for scum.
I guess conceptually this game is pretty close to nightless - we skip the first 3 nights so we get4flips before scum have any control over who is in the thread at all. So if there's a correct townblock then they're sort of obligated to do something about it at some point. I think the reservation I have about that being the straightforward reading is that I don't know if it'd be the tactic scum takes this early, as opposed to waiting and seeing which parts of the townblock tend to chip away over time.
I think if Alisae's afk is probably broadly unrelated to alignment either way.In post 1396, Mandate wrote: I think Alisae could be afk scum but if that's the case I doubt that e is afk because e is scum because e has reasons (not good ones imo but reasons) for being afk-
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Your "idk" list here is notablyIn post 1405, Sakura Hana wrote: Dannflor - Eh towny?
Aristeia - Idk
Lazy Shirou - Idk
Brown Eyes - Idk
Dunnstral - Most likely town
Meuh - Most likely town
Merlyn - Idk
Keyleth - Town
Mandate - Town
Alisae - Idk
Taly - Town
implosion - Probs scum
beeboy - Town
Actually I townread a lot less people than i thought i did.exactlymy "still need to sort" list plus Brown Eyes.-
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I can think of some reasons why this would be the case but am curious why specifically you think this is something that would be really rare from town.In post 1444, Mandate wrote: Also like as a general rule I'm not saying never but town rarely write things like all the stuff Meuh wrote about the metaphor of the seeds and the watering and the sprouting, it happens on rare occasions-
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How do you feel, metaphorically, about those seeds sprouting into the tree that is your avatar-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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What drove you to feel like this was something you wanted to pop in to say? I worry since it was your first post in a day that it's you as scum feeling like you needed to post something about me because you'd have an opinion as town because of context, but not actually knowing what to say, whereas I feel like you as town would have something to say after asking about me and then sitting for a day (even if it's not about the newest stuff).In post 1461, Merlyn wrote: I'm gonna let the stuff implosion said percolate a bit
Still uncertain. I do think that the logical disagreements I have with her case have mostly little bearing on her alignment. I still don't love her vote on me though her explanation assuages it because I did just miss something simple. The reason it would be scum indicative in my mind is sort of a stochastic argument; I think her attacking me at that point in time has lots of utility as scum (re: townblock type stuff), which means it'd be more likely to come from scum, but doesn't preclude it coming from town meaningfully.In post 1496, Taly wrote: implosion - How do you feel about Meuh's case on you? Is it AI in any major form or is it independent from the POV you already have on that slot?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Historically, the way I play scum is mostly to try to mimic my towngame, i.e. in any given situation i mostly try to do whatever i would have done there as town, and I'm intentional about cases where I don't or where I am doing something specifically because I have info. I tend to be pretty bad at concealing partner interactions to some degree, or at least every time I post something about/to a scumbuddy I'm afraid that I'm giving away something.
I think the best way to describe my towngame most of the time is "soft PoE" - I get some townreads I feel good about, and then over time I try to refine those reads to see which ones I feel ought to persist in the face of a changing gamestate. I tend to have a harder time finding confident scumreads, but it does sometimes happen. So I usually wind up generally trying to work with the people that I'm hard townreading to sort the soft PoE over time. But I think my day one reads are like, probably roughly =rand.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Is your current stance that you think we're both scummy but not scum together? Do you solidly want one of the two of us to be the lim today, at this point in time?In post 1513, beeboy wrote:
A town read on one of implosion or Meuh that doesn't hinge on the read of the other.In post 1512, Taly wrote: What do you need to resolve in order to vote confidently?-
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yes but i do it very, very verboselyIn post 1522, Sakura Hana wrote: So, you basically townhunt?-
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i am a little tempted to unvote just because mandate's agony is really quite entertaining-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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As fair as this is from you, I think it is eminently possible to have a correct townread on me right now. Just because you just saw me play a good game as scum, doesn't mean it isn't possible for someone to quickly identify me as town. Essentially I think it's very fair for you to be cautious on me but there's no intrinsic reason that caution necessarily has to apply to everyone in the lobby, especially when, as Mandate is correctly pointing out, there are lots of really good scum players here.In post 1573, Merlyn wrote: I don't think any Implo has said is out of his scumrange. I think the only way I will be able to catch him as scum is if we both make it to later in the game and I can see any inconsistencies in the things he said. I really, really question anyone townreading him so casually.
5 people I'd townbin are Shirou, Meuh, Beeboy, Ari, Keyleth.
It just clicked for me who Mandate probably is, and if so, I think it doesn't change anything practically about the game for me.
I think a problem I'm having with Ari is that her posting is almost too clean. She's making very reasonable comments and questions on the gamestate, she's not doing anything particularly wrong or anything but I feel like I ought to have seen more stuff from her that pings me as town. I think it's very reasonably possible that this can be chalked up to this being a gamestate that is not good at drawing out the kinds of play from her that I think I'd be able to identify as townish but it does sort of mean that right now she feels off the table in terms of readability to me just because I need her to be in a different flavor of interaction than she currently is that the current gamestate just isn't conducive to because the current gamestate has absolutely no material threat behind any of its pushes. The current gamestate is a wonderland where it feels like every push is bound to dissipate into smoke two hours later, and I think Mandate is essentially combatting that with their rhetoric around Meuh lasting more than a day but it feels like despite all these Consensus Townreads there is absolutely no deep level of cohesion within the town right now.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This has similar vibes to the question you asked Mandate about their townread on me of saying if they said they're so sure of it are they willing to stake whatever on it. The real answer is idk, I don't know how you in particular get reads on people, I don't know why you historically scumread me early, I just know that I'm not so masterful a scum player that I could have emulated everything I've done in this game so far. I gave some examples when talking with Meuh. There are various things I've done that I think I probably wouldn't have done often or ever as scum, the way I've approached catching up and keeping up with this game, the particular way I've been engaged with it (which I have been, you're wrong that I haven't shown interest in this game, I think I pretty clearly have at this point), details of how my reads on people like Meuh and Brown Eyes and you have worked. But I don't magically know my own game well enough to truthfully say I can pin down exactly what I would have done differently as scum. That's your job, you signed up for this game, and if you're town your read on me is currently wrong, and it's not my job to explain to you exactly what details you should be picking up on, it's your job to pick up on them just like it's not your job to explain in detail to me why I should be townreading you when I'm not right now. That's just how the game works, idk why I'm getting annoyed at this question because it's a very normal question it's just annoying to me in the context of this game for whatever reason.In post 1603, Aristeia wrote:In post 1600, implosion wrote: I think it is eminently possible to have a correct townread on me right now.
what should I be town-reading from you?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Ditto to Merlyn's question to me to some degree but honestly I don't really expect her to ever "find me as town" here, at least not for a few days when probably if we're both alive if she's town she'll figure out that there's Something Different about my game here compared to the one where we just played together. After all she was able to find me as scum there eventually (although maybe it was PoE in elo, i'm not sure what was going on in her head precisely)-
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The feeling that scum are "near goddamn invisible" is interesting; there are plenty of games on this site where, say, there are consensus miseliminations on days one and two. In those games, in retrospect, it turns out that scum had been "nearly invisible" early on.In post 1660, Sakura Hana wrote: Yeah, because this game has been weird with scum being near goddamn invisible and no one being able to agree on anything.
In that sense I'm not reallyworriedper se about the fact that there's a generally low level of suspicion being thrown around, it makes the game awkward to play but ultimately we are going to eliminate someone and maybe it'll be right and maybe it'll be wrong, just like any other mafia game.
For what it's worth, and I don't want to derail the game by going down this path a lot but I do want to say something here just because I think I understand where you're coming from with this sentiment.In post 1698, Mandate wrote: Then I turn around and see that the players who alt guessed me are by and large unwilling to commit townreads on me even though by any ordinary standard I've obvtowned like crazy
I understand the frustration, and I am really tempted to write paragraphs here, but I just want to say I'm still hard townreading you. Perception in mafia isn't a monolith. People interpret things differently.
I don't really agree here. Ari's fight with Mandate feels like a natural outcropping of things to me and I feel like it's a relatively natural direction for her to go in if she is scum. I do think it's not like, an especially practical thing to do as scum probably but I think she still does it sometimes hereIn post 1702, beeboy wrote: I don't think Ari picks a fight with you as scum, because as scum it's unlikely to make a difference.
I think this is a town post. I think it's a post scum are probably afraid especially in this particular way to make because it'd look like trying to bring a townread lurker back into the lim poolIn post 1719, Dannflor wrote: I'm worried about Brown Eyes :/-
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sad.
What exactly does playing harder here mean to you?In post 1742, Dannflor wrote: idk i feel like Ari has to play a lot harder here to have a chance of winning as scum. There are so many towny slots and in a hypothetical meuh/ali world neither of them are getting spared at this rate-
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I will say, I essentially have no issues with Mandate's solve but obviously I'm not as confident of a player as Mandate. But I do think it's a coherently possible scumteam.-
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She has been a bit ancillary a lot of the time in this game but (1) we're still less than a week in, and (2) she usually has more thread presence (in the sense that I think you're using the phrase) than she currently does when she's town as well.
To be completely frank, I think it's hard to really dive into the mindset of how scum will be thinking about this game in regards to things like how they intend to win or who needs to carry. I think this setup at a glance looks like it'dfeelabsolutely brutal to play as scum in the early game. Keep in mind that if we go spare route, the EV is maybe something around 50% but like, wewillhave to reckon with a 3:4 or 2:3 gamestate at some point. I think in many ways it makes lots of sense for scum to keep a low profile early; they're eventually going to have much better numbers compared to the town and if they've been too townie but haven't been spared it might get suspicious for them. I think it's entirely possible that the scum mindset here is just "don't get limmed d1-2, then take control of things after a couple spares". They don't need to be the towniest person, or explicitly even in the top 4 (spare dunn, then spare-nk-spare-nk gets rid of the towniest 4 people), to win this game.-
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(this is assuming we mislim d1-2 i guess, but this is also with the assumption that a big part of the scum mindset is to get through d1-2)-
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