Stoofer's 3rd Law

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ubertimmy
ubertimmy
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ubertimmy
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Joined: March 26, 2006

Post Post #51 (isolation #0) » Thu Mar 08, 2007 4:46 pm

Post by ubertimmy »

Yosarian2 wrote: Say a roleblocker uses his ability at random night zero. Let's also say that this is a 12 person mini game with more town power then average, with a cop, a doc, a vig, a roleblocker, with 3 person mafia, and a SK.

The vig probably shouldn't do anything night zero anyway, so if you block him, no big deal.

So there's a 1/12 chance you prevent the cop from one investigation, which stops the town from getting an investigation off, but also means that the cop can confirm your claim later if needed. Small - for the town.

There's a 1/12 chance of blocking the doc, but he's only got a 2/12 chance of stopping a kill night zero, so the odds of stopping a doc from saving someone is only 2/144. Not worth worrying about.

There's a 2/12 chance that you'll stop either a scum kill or a SK kill, and either way you both prevent a kill (more likely then not a kill on a good guy), and once you figure out that there's usually two kills, you also might have a pretty good idea you might have blocked a scum night 1. Huge + for the town.

So even on night zero, with no information, a random roleblock is more likely then not the right decision for the town.
I just want to say this logic has got me lynched as protown roleblocker in scumchat multiple times. :( People need to learn that Night 0 blocks are GOOD things.

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