You are a Town 1-shot Tracker...

[Hoopla]

...in a 13p Mini Normal;

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?
- A full town PR has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed -do you use your action on N1?
- A goon has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 - but the previous player to reach L-1 claimed Vigilante. Do you use your action on this player N1?

- In what circumstances would you hold onto your action for N3 or later?

[Empking]

No
No
No
No

All of them.

[Trojan Horse]

Don't talk about ongoing games.

[shaft.ed]

depends on how likely you feel you will be lynched/NK really

[Parama]

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?
Nope. It'd be luck to get anything at all/

- A full town PR has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed -do you use your action on N1?
Definitely not.

- A goon has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?
Depends - if you can link another player to the flipped goon, go for it.

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 - but the previous player to reach L-1 claimed Vigilante. Do you use your action on this player N1?
WHY IN GODS NAME WOULD YOU
THAT'S A ROLE THAT PROVES ITSELF

[Regfan]

Yes.
No.
Yes.
No.

None.

[LlamaFluff]

I actually agree with Reg with the possible exception of not using it in scenario one. Scenario three is the perfect spot to use it.

Tracker/Watcher are for more than catching scum, but they also can be used to clear other roles to an extent. Chances are usually that if you pick up someone who didnt target the dead player, you just found a town power, and can assume they are a semi-clear player, approximately along the same lines of getting a clear in a game with a known GF.

This is even more true to a dead goon day one. If a goon dies, you likely have one scum PR and one scum goon left (maybe two PRs), but chances are at that point hitting a role doing something means you have town.

Only way you hold onto it is if you know you are not going to be killed (ie doc claim D1), if you know you are going to be fine, you can hold onto it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes to all but the last because the odds of me living to Day 3 are horrid on a good day.

Getting NKed will make that 1-shot useless.

No to the last - I'm very unlikely to live that long.

[DemonHybrid]

...in a 13p Mini Normal;

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?
- A full town PR has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed -do you use your action on N1?
- A goon has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 - but the previous player to reach L-1 claimed Vigilante. Do you use your action on this player N1?

- In what circumstances would you hold onto your action for N3 or later?

1. No way in hell
2. No.
3. No.
4. Yes, definitely.
5. Two mafia dies by N3, 1 left and a few PR claims on the table.

[Empking]

I actually agree with Reg with the possible exception of not using it in scenario one. Scenario three is the perfect spot to use it.

Tracker/Watcher are for more than catching scum, but they also can be used to clear other roles to an extent. Chances are usually that if you pick up someone who didnt target the dead player, you just found a town power, and can assume they are a semi-clear player, approximately along the same lines of getting a clear in a game with a known GF.

Tell me if I'm missing something here.
Best(ish) case scenario: 1 Scum power role, 2 town power roles. If your target took an action (that didn't target the dead player) your target has a 2 in 3 chance of being town. Any random player (excluding yourself) has a 9 in 11 chance of being town.

[LlamaFluff]

I actually agree with Reg with the possible exception of not using it in scenario one. Scenario three is the perfect spot to use it.

Tracker/Watcher are for more than catching scum, but they also can be used to clear other roles to an extent. Chances are usually that if you pick up someone who didnt target the dead player, you just found a town power, and can assume they are a semi-clear player, approximately along the same lines of getting a clear in a game with a known GF.

Tell me if I'm missing something here.
Best(ish) case scenario: 1 Scum power role, 2 town power roles. If your target took an action (that didn't target the dead player) your target has a 2 in 3 chance of being town. Any random player (excluding yourself) has a 9 in 11 chance of being town.

I would be happy with those odds, especially as if you are a one shot tracker I would expect more than two other town powers (probably three along the lines of 1 shot watch, BG, X vig).

At the same time as I think about it more, someone doing NOTHING there is a good shot of actually being VT (assume RB + GF, GF kills RB blocks). At least 10/11 chance of being town to a do nothing, and a 2/3 chance if did something. Clearing someone to 67% town at worst I will take in an instant, especially as a claim/PR flip would turn the 67% into near certainty of alignment.

I just think info from trackers are misused quite a bit, since people use them to catch scum more then to clear town. Did nothing is a towntell as I think about it more.

[Faraday]

Nah to the first 2 usually. Depends on the playerlist admittedly but I can usually tell fairly accurately when I'm about to be nightkilled, on average a more verbose player is more likely to die than me on night 1 in my experience.

Goon lynched? Yes, I can probably clear someone who goes nowhere (i.e. someone that doesn't target someone is very likely confirmed town due to the prevalency of a mafia pr + goon doing kill) or at best catch the killer.

No @ vigilante, depending on who is lynched, he's likely to be roleblocked/killed though I'd say so it's pointless.

[Empking]

I actually agree with Reg with the possible exception of not using it in scenario one. Scenario three is the perfect spot to use it.

Tracker/Watcher are for more than catching scum, but they also can be used to clear other roles to an extent. Chances are usually that if you pick up someone who didnt target the dead player, you just found a town power, and can assume they are a semi-clear player, approximately along the same lines of getting a clear in a game with a known GF.

Tell me if I'm missing something here.
Best(ish) case scenario: 1 Scum power role, 2 town power roles. If your target took an action (that didn't target the dead player) your target has a 2 in 3 chance of being town. Any random player (excluding yourself) has a 9 in 11 chance of being town.

I would be happy with those odds, especially as if you are a one shot tracker I would expect more than two other town powers (probably three along the lines of 1 shot watch, BG, X vig).

At the same time as I think about it more, someone doing NOTHING there is a good shot of actually being VT (assume RB + GF, GF kills RB blocks). At least 10/11 chance of being town to a do nothing, and a 2/3 chance if did something. Clearing someone to 67% town at worst I will take in an instant,.

But that worst odds than you started with?

[LlamaFluff]

If you assume the game is

goon-goon-RB vs you-doctor-vig-7xVT

goon lynch -> RB blocks, goon kills -> Did something 2/3 town, did nothing 7/7 town, assume RB double acts, 2/2 on action 7/8 on no action
VT lynch -> did something 2/3 town, 7/8 nothing

I like both of those odds a ton.

[Empking]

If you assume the game is

goon-goon-RB vs you-doctor-vig-7xVT

goon lynch -> RB blocks, goon kills -> Did something 2/3 town, did nothing 7/7 town, assume RB double acts, 2/2 on action 7/8 on no action
VT lynch -> did something 2/3 town, 7/8 nothing

I like both of those odds a ton.

Yeah. I just think you were wrong with your original premise that you should hope that your target did something.

[Magua]

...in a 13p Mini Normal;

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?
- A full town PR has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed -do you use your action on N1?
- A goon has been lynched Day 1 with no other players claimed - do you use your action on N1?

- A townie has been lynched Day 1 - but the previous player to reach L-1 claimed Vigilante. Do you use your action on this player N1?

- In what circumstances would you hold onto your action for N3 or later?

Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
No. (I assume vig kill has been directed at this point.)
Never.

I'm apparently the opposite of DemonHybrid.

[animorpherv1]

1.No
2.Depends
3.If I can find a link, yes
4.Assuming directed kill, no. Otherwise depends.
5. Any chance I got. The later I can use a PR after D3 is a (generally) greater chance that I will find mafia or PR. Add that to my ability to not be good at finding PRs/Mafia, then I probably would keep it for a ehile, than claim 1-shot tracker to save myself if needed.

[Hoopla]

Only way you hold onto it is if you know you are not going to be killed (ie doc claim D1), if you know you are going to be fine, you can hold onto it.

Predicting your ability to survive seems like a good variable to base your decision on. Dying on N1 won't matter if you use or don't use your action, as the information only becomes relevant the next day. By choosing not to use your action Night 1, you need to avoid being outed/forced to claim or lynched on Day 2, and then not nightkilled/blocked on Night 2. The improved of odds of catching a useful result needs to be weighed against the improved odds of you not getting to use your action. It seems very difficult to predict two phases in advance how you stand in the town's and scum's eyes...

[Parama]

4. Yes, definitely.

Okay, can you elaborate on this one please?
Because UM NO!?

[Yosarian2]

The odds of a tracker accomplishing anything on night 1 is really, really low. Your odds of spotting the mafia member making the kill are 1/11, and you can't even just target the guy everyone thinks is scum; even if he is, the scum won't send that guy out to do the kill. The longer you can wait, the better. Obviously you don't want to die without using the ability, but using it night 1 isn't great; your odds of daying before, say, day 3 aren't very high.

I guess the other useful reason to use it early is then if you get run up to a claim you can say "Person X didn't go anywhere night 1", which in a really weak way semi-confirms your roleclaim. It's not really a big deal, though, unless you see a town power role doing something, and then you probably don't want to reveal that person's role.

Generally, a 1 shot tracker should wait until the odds are better. It's worth shooting earlier if there's a scum group and a SK, though.

[DemonHybrid]

4. Yes, definitely.

Okay, can you elaborate on this one please?
Because UM NO!?

I didn't see anything about a directed kill.

Also, say there's a kill and this person targeted someone else. That confirms a RBer or a doctor later on, or the vig himself if it's a 1shot.

[Empking]

4. Yes, definitely.

Okay, can you elaborate on this one please?
Because UM NO!?

I didn't see anything about a directed kill.

Also, say there's a kill and this person targeted someone else. That confirms a RBer or a doctor later on, or the vig himself if it's a 1shot.

1. Do roleblocker's targets get seen going places?
2. Our vig is targetting a player so pro-town they get doc protected? Am I missing something here.
3. The vig has already claimed and they claimed vig.

[Faraday]

1. should be no surely.

But yes, it doesn't make sense to track the claimed vig.

[DemonHybrid]

4. Yes, definitely.

Okay, can you elaborate on this one please?
Because UM NO!?

I didn't see anything about a directed kill.

Also, say there's a kill and this person targeted someone else. That confirms a RBer or a doctor later on, or the vig himself if it's a 1shot.

1. Do roleblocker's targets get seen going places?
2. Our vig is targetting a player so pro-town they get doc protected? Am I missing something here.
3. The vig has already claimed and they claimed vig.

1. Never mind about the RBer then
2. Assuming no directed kills. And not all people agree on reads.
3. Claimed =\= confirmed.

[Empking]

4. Yes, definitely.

Okay, can you elaborate on this one please?
Because UM NO!?

I didn't see anything about a directed kill.

Also, say there's a kill and this person targeted someone else. That confirms a RBer or a doctor later on, or the vig himself if it's a 1shot.

1. Do roleblocker's targets get seen going places?
2. Our vig is targetting a player so pro-town they get doc protected? Am I missing something here.
3. The vig has already claimed and they claimed vig.

1. Never mind about the RBer then
2. Assuming no directed kills. And not all people agree on reads.

To that extent?

3. Claimed =\= confirmed.

If he was forced to claim vig then he's not a one-shot vig.