Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[IceDragon70]

I am ICE MAFIA!

VOTE: Aureal

Why you talking about dragons? Are you fire scum?

[IceDragon70]

Nothing like central park in spring

VOTE: IceDragon70

Look at this guy's name!

Can I just say I was invited to play on my main but the name thing was too tempting so I decided to use this alt?

[IceDragon70]

Nice claim though. Who's your icy champion?

Do you mean who's my partner? Or somethong else?
Because site rules forbid claiming scum partner iirc.

[IceDragon70]

Well I was going to gripe more about how scumsided the setup is

Yeah like, ONE more town PR of some sort would've been nice.

Yeah it would've been.

[IceDragon70]

UNVOTE: drew Bear

What's with all the unvotes?

Good point.
VOTE: Mala

[IceDragon70]

what's up nerds

Feeling pretty nerdy tbh after a full day of basically just board games.

[IceDragon70]

VOTE: Dragon
not random

Good, no more RVS. Why?

I believe others made it clear already, but 45 leaves a bit of an unpleasant taste. It's latching to Aureal's question in a sly fashion. And weakly reframing the question as an accusation

Well that's one way to look at it.

I do think it's a bit scummy to unvote because it makes conversation lose momentum, especially when the unvote comes from being the third voter on an RVS wagon. It felt like a way to avoid attention.
Of course it was pretty weak, but that's because we were still in RVS back then.

[IceDragon70]

Also don't really get how people are reading Dragons vote as RVS?

UNVOTE: drew Bear

What's with all the unvotes?

Good point.
VOTE: Mala

Like the Aureal post was already kinda semi-serious so "Good point" + vote seems even more serious than semi-serious?

-A

It's semi-serious, i.e. It's not a joke, but I don't have a strong read on Mala or something.

[IceDragon70]

but i also dont like/understand why u have such strong assumptions about the thoughts behind a post that is two words long by someone you're not even sure of their main

Eh, this can be solved pretty easily. IceDragon70 is your main DragonEater70?

-C

Of course.

[IceDragon70]

Like I'll absolutely meta Dragon for diverging from my mental model of him because the divergence happened at the skill level and not the playstyle level

-A

What I don't understand is where did you even get that mental image because IIRC we've never played together?

Also while I did create this alt to play differently when paying on it, I do admit to signing up to this game with this alt specifically for the joke.

[IceDragon70]

Okay I tried to post in catchup style but I feel it's gonna take too long to cover over 10 pages.
So I am just gonna ISO the 3-4 players that stuck out the most for me and see whichever of them I wanna vote now.
If ya'll want to point me to a specific development or post feel free to do it though.

[IceDragon70]

Okay so I read usesPython's ISO.

My thoughts:
-push on me felt a bit scummy.
-flip flop on Black could be scummy.
-HOWEVER, their explanation of the flip-flop and their subsequent push on Black felt quite townie on their mindset and tone.
Overall read is null-town.

[IceDragon70]

Okay I tried to post in catchup style but I feel it's gonna take too long to cover over 10 pages.
So I am just gonna ISO the 3-4 players that stuck out the most for me and see whichever of them I wanna vote now.
If ya'll want to point me to a specific development or post feel free to do it though.

208 (explained in 268) and 294 (for the start of the black push) are the big stuff that happened since then

222 for mech info

Let me read those now.

[IceDragon70]

Oh no you got Nameless to mech post

-A

It's actually optimal to lim every day. Since scum targetting the same person stops the nightkill that leaves a

G

/(

T

+

G

) chance of shooting the other groupscum, and a 1/(

T

² + 2

T

) chance of both targetting the same townie if a townie is getting shot

The chance of limming scum is

S

/(P - 1)

Plugging in the numbers that means that for now a lim gives an expected result of 8/12 chance of limming town whereas the chance of scum nightkilling town (Ignoring any doctor plays) is 9/11 - 1/99 = 80/99

Spoiler: What the letters mean

P - number of players alive

T

- number of town alive

S

- number of scum alive

G

- number of enemy groupscum alive

-Nameless

Ugh, don't do mech while tired; the math for the nightkills is off by like 0.5% because I didn't properly adjust the "same target = no nk" and didn't account for the doctor. Just listing out every possible action assuming a No Lim gives the following nightkill chances:

Town Doctor

: 240/2484 (9.66%)

Vanilla Townie

: 1760/2484 (70.85%)

Fire Mafia Goon

: 242/2484 (9.74%)

Ice Mafia Goon

: 242/2484 (9.74%)

Which when combined gives the chances of:

Town

: 2000/2484 (80.52%)

Mafia

: 484/2484 (19.48%)

Compared to the elim chances (

Town Doctor

can't get elimed because they just claim):

Vanilla Townie

: 8/12

Fire Mafia Goon

: 2/12

Ice Mafia Goon

: 2/12

Which when combined gives the chances of

Town

: 8/12 (66.67%)

Mafia

: 4/12 (33.33%)

Whatever. Now it's your responsibility to translate the mech for us >:(

thats cool and all but can u explain it in laymans terms.

It's more optimal to get scum killed through elims instead of nightkills and the reason this math needed to be done at all is because the mechanic where scum targeting the same person stops the nightkill will only ever get triggered on a town nightkill (since if it triggers on a scum nightkill it means that scum targeted themselves)

-Nameless

Btw are you a hydra or what? Cause I saw you playing im the Newbie queue where hydras aren't allowed, but you sign your posts.

[IceDragon70]

Also isn't it obvious it's optimal to eliminate every night in multiball?

[IceDragon70]

I mean every day.