Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Hero at Heart]

why?

[Hero at Heart]

hero you know its ok to just say you dont know if you dont know right

apparently i don't know what

apparently i don't know

that

i will catch up

[Hero at Heart]

i have one thing i understood from page 30

THS is not scum here

[Hero at Heart]

intent to hammer std

[Hero at Heart]

@std if you town can you please scumcase implo or towncase yourself or even towncase ari/bella?

[Hero at Heart]

Drew, come back! I would like to hear your thoughts on the current gamestate

agreed

[Hero at Heart]

@merlyn how likely do you think is a std/ari solve?

[Hero at Heart]

intent to hammer std

lol i'm dumb i read THS saying E-1 and i forgot i unvoted after that

so anyway i still have intent to put std at e-1 if std doesn't answer my question.

[Hero at Heart]

@merlyn how likely do you think is a std/ari solve?

depends a bit on what happens next- if there's an std flip and they go red, Ari leaving the wagon right before it could gain critical mass will be sus to me. If they flip green she drops lower on my list.

i guess that makes sense

i have one thing i understood from page 30

THS is not scum here

what on pg 30 makes you feel that way?

i'm actually not 100% sure what made me say that, but i think part of it was that THS blatantly refusing to answer bella felt kinda weird coming from scum.

[Hero at Heart]

hero you know its ok to just say you dont know if you dont know right

see ari, i am learning!

[Hero at Heart]

well then

can you explain why you prefer imp? because i don't get ittt

[Hero at Heart]

okay time to do an alianna

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

this game is haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaard

should i just vote std and then cry in the corner if it turns out i was right all along and he was town and ari was scum

[Hero at Heart]

std can you either come here and either hammer yourself if scum or make a post that will give me a reason not to hammer you if you are town

[Hero at Heart]

the first "either" should be a "please"

[Hero at Heart]

Coz we are running out of reasons the coalition failed if it's not std.

I'm obv town, hero would always say hero is town, hero strong trs implo (I think? I do), so it's almost poe by that point? Weird q

yes + i was sring ari at sone point in the past and then we 1v1'd and both decided the other was town. though tbh her tr on me could be opportunistic since it happened right after i included her in the coalition.

honestly i'm tempted to just vote her first and std on day 2 if she's green, because while scum!std is good at looking townie, i don't think he would be able to manipulate the gamestate on d2 to get out of being limmed like scum!ari can (and she can, i believe. she's pretty good at playing scum even though she denies it.

also i think RH9 is scum 90% of the time because that "duck it" from mala is literally one most anti-town play that happened this game, except for me declaring my coalition unilaterally final (sorry about that).

also i just realized i'm logged in from wrong account but it's pretty clear that this hero, yes?

UNVOTE:

[Hero at Heart]

I'm worried because like...rh9, std, ths and Ari is way too many scum: Ans then I'm paranoid I'm missing a deep wolf and being distracted.

THS is not scum, and most probably only one of std and ari is scum (though they could be neither scum i guess if implo is).

[Hero at Heart]

UNVOTE:

also am i a dum dum for only now realizing i wasn't even voting?

[Hero at Heart]

If he's town and she's scum, why would she do that?

To get townread after he flips green? idk

do you want me to just hammer?

[Hero at Heart]

If he's town and she's scum, why would she do that?

To appear more town, most likely. It's not exactly something that's hard to fake.

mindmeld (i haven't even read this when i replied)

[Hero at Heart]

okay fine if nothing changes i'll probably just hammer in the morning (10 hours from now)

[Hero at Heart]

ok so first of all, i'm not voting in implo/bella/drew today. in fact i don't think i'm ever voting in these 3.

second of all, yay! i guess my reads weren't that horrible after all. i mean yes i did have a shitty townread on datisi pre-coalition (sorry ari, sorry implo), but the later scumread was good. also sorry for being a coward and not hammering when i should've.

third of all:

UNVOTE:

also am i a dum dum for only now realizing i wasn't even voting?

LOL! I thought you were doing it for emphasis- like, you felt so strongly you needed to unvote again!

do you want me to just hammer?

I want you to vote for the person you think is most likely to be scum, and if that person is different than the one with the leading wagon entering the last 24 hours I want you to try and convince me and others to switch.

ya that's funny

sorry i didn't answer that yesterday, but basically my answer would've been "probably std".


fourth of all, i realize that my hesitation on hammering std makes me look really bad. please be as kind and forgiving as ari and don't vote me, thanks.


fifth of all, i also don't think merlyn is likely to be std's partner tbh after that EOD. i wanted to say that about THS as well but frankly i can see that as bussing.

so that leaves RH9, THS and ari. I think we win by flipping RH9 > ari > THS, with RH9 being last scum 80% of the time.

sixth of all you can tell this was written during the night because i am (probably) referring to a player that has died.

seventh of all, VOTE: RH9

[Hero at Heart]

oh okay THS dies whattt

[Hero at Heart]

I have a guilty on Merlyn, told you guys she is bad news.

But seriously, I doubt scum would buss here, well at least not as early on the wagon as Imp and Merlyn......figures the two people I scum read the most lol.

I guess maybe Ari could buss there, but doubt it.

Objectively speaking, my hammer was probably the only spot a buss could happen, so I understand it not clearing me.

Now, like I said before I hammered, I did not like RH's reaction to me saying I would hammer std. I believe this should be the vote then it is GG town, let's all crack the champagne.

But at the very least I feel like the lim should be between RH, Bella, and Hero.

limming me sucks cause scum!me could easily divert the lim to implo and then bus std day 2 and get both towncred and a mislim out of the way.

but it's understandable cause i did act like a big hedgy stupido yesterday. so if i do get mislimmed, i will accept responsibility for that.

[Hero at Heart]

oh okay THS dies whattt

So, who do you think are scum, now?

uhhhhhh

i have no idea, i don't think you/ari have no reason to kill ths but i also don't see any of the others having any obvious reasons to kill him.

i will have to think about this.

[Hero at Heart]

actually i rescind this, i don't see any scum motivation for hedging on their partner and making a weak push elsewhere only to immediately say they will hammer their partner anyway

i think drew's sr of me is bullshit.

[Hero at Heart]

VOTE: drew

[Hero at Heart]

I'm really surprised Hero was not the NK last night. I think they were way more townread than THS. I would really not want Hero to make it to Elo.

Drew, what makes you clear Ari here? I think she got off the std wagon at a really critical time, and didn't offer up an alternative.

For me it's somewhere in RH, Ari, and Hero.

i'm also surprised i am not the nightkill, and this makes me think the scum is someone who is/was widely townread and needs to keep me alive to "justify" why they are also alive.

and because i'm mega-clearing implo, this leaves drew/bella who i had also been clearing before THS's flip.

i can also see it being ari though precisely because she got off the wagon (like you said), and she also has a lot to gain from leaving me and implo alive as scum.

[Hero at Heart]

tbh i would've expected implosion to get nightkilled

i'll tr this as a mindmeld

[Hero at Heart]

but actually scum!RH9 could just have wifom killed THS, it's not even that unlikely

and i think that this post:

I'm not sure from these latest posts, RH9, are you thinking STD is scum?

I think implo is, because, based on a reread, he knows what my scumgame looks like and hasn't been acknowledging that the posts I made upon replacing in (

if he genuinely thinks I'm scum

) make more sense in a implo/me world than a STD/me world.

is not an argument town makes, because why would town say that implo should think implo is scum? that's a weird argument, of the kind back in the day people called a scum slip.

VOTE: RH9

but i do wanna flip drew next.

[Hero at Heart]

but actually scum!RH9 could just have wifom killed THS, it's not even that unlikely

and i think that this post:

I'm not sure from these latest posts, RH9, are you thinking STD is scum?

I think implo is, because, based on a reread, he knows what my scumgame looks like and hasn't been acknowledging that the posts I made upon replacing in (

if he genuinely thinks I'm scum

) make more sense in a implo/me world than a STD/me world.

is not an argument town makes, because why would town say that implo should think implo is scum? that's a weird argument, of the kind back in the day people called a scum slip.

Uh.
To point out that implo knew my meta well enough that the possible scenario would be ludicrous to himself and thus, town!implo might be more willing to rethink things?

is that /honestly/ your thought process?

[Hero at Heart]

kind of thinking its just hero + datisi scumteam

ari noooo

you know i don't bus day 1.

don't do this to meeeee

[Hero at Heart]

btw RH9
you were scumreading implo, right?
did that change at all following std's flip?

[Hero at Heart]

but he's still in my scumpool, unless I'm wrong on Merlyn/you/Ari.

elaborate?

[Hero at Heart]

i have played with hero when he was mafia and I think your reasoning does not apply to him at all

it's funny because i think that when i was mafia with you, i read the gamestate perfectly and bussed my partner hard on the day where it was obvious they would flip. and i'm pretty sure that won me the game since both townies in 3p elo were planning to vote each other.

i think as scum i would've hammered std rather than saying "i'll hammer in 10 hours"

[Hero at Heart]

and i also think that as scum i would've made a proper push on you day 1, i think i had plenty of opportunity to position that push but i did not take it because, as town, i was not thinking in terms of positioning myself but in terms of finding scum.

[Hero at Heart]

wow your reading of me is wild

idk what to say honestly

i just think seeing my actions in the light you are presenting it is very... improbable?

i really have nothing else to say

[Hero at Heart]

can't you just believe i just wanted to be town with you and datisi really bad after last game, and that all my towntunneling on dats / saying i would cry / having my wim sucked from one of you being scum is a result of that?

[Hero at Heart]

because it's the truth

[Hero at Heart]

554 apologizes to me for being wrong - like um isn't this just hoping I don't come after him for being wrong?

not really? in the early game you mentioned not liking my super-confidence that datisi is town and i construed it as you being somewhat annoyed with my behavior, so when i turned out wrong i wanted to apologize. this is like, social interaction for dummies.

idk if you noticed but i play this (specific) game based on my heart not my brain. i actually planned to call this alt just "heart" but the name was taken so i had to settle for "hero at heart"

[Hero at Heart]

can't you just believe i just wanted to be town with you and datisi really bad after last game, and that all my towntunneling on dats / saying i would cry / having my wim sucked from one of you being scum is a result of that?

wow i feel embarrassed to have said that

kill me pls

[Hero at Heart]

no, i apologized for being wrong on the coalition in general

and i also did have a gut feeling it was stdatisi after the coalition failed

[Hero at Heart]

like i feel datisi's play this game was designed to pocket me and my extreme townread of him is a result of this pocket (as well as my own towntunneling)

while with you, implo and bella i feel like the townread came from a more organic place of you just genuinely sounded like you are town (but not in the fake way that datisi did)

so when the coalition failed i realized there must've been a fake town and the read on datisi is the one that made the most sense to come from a pocket / towntunnel and not from the person actually being town. like i *wanted* datisi to be town, while with the others i just saw them being townie. and the reason i'm slightly suspecting you while not suspecting bella and implo is because i know that i still *want* you to be town, rather than you just sounding town

fully

.

idk if this makes sense to you, but it's just how it works.

[Hero at Heart]

and i was suspecting you day 1 (after coalition fail) for the same reason

[Hero at Heart]

well, rh9/ari are pushing you/me, respectively. merlyn wants me/ari/rh9. i think most of everyone else prefers a lim outside the coalition (specifically rh9)

[Hero at Heart]

brilliant solve, merlyn.

[Hero at Heart]

I am unwilling to lose to hero!mafia but if everyone else wants to I won't care

well you won't lose to hero!mafia because i'm not mafia.

you can instead either win, if town, lose to hero, implo and bella, if scum, or lose to implo!mafia, if we're in crazy opposite of logic world.

[Hero at Heart]

What do you think of my case on Rh9

i don't think she likes it:

why is RH9 mafia

associatives with std,
lurking all day 1,
poe where the only other suspect is you and i'm doing my best not to vote you.

[Hero at Heart]

on top of nonsensical pushes on implo and now another nonsensical push on bella

[Hero at Heart]

do you have examples of his play being designed to pocket you

yes:

HEAL: hero at heart
HEAL: merlyn
VOTE: theholdsteady

cool lol

i might as well:

HEAL: Datisi, Hero, Bella, Merlyn

Drew do you want in?

How opportunistic can you be. you basically agree with my two (three? I'm not sure if you're saying you townread Drew here) townreads here while ALSO putting yourself in the coalition, while at the same time saying "idk, THS seems like scum for the bella read and putting himself in the coalition". you're just parroting the wrong read already espoused by datisi hoping no one will notice.

VOTE: Hero at Heart

oh this is a very bad post

THS is accusing hero of being scum for scumreading him while having the "same" views as him, but completely ignoring the fact on how those views came to be, when something like that is very relevant, is uh, a choice

THS, are you an alt? do you have mafia experience elsewhere?

ngl i think hero might be like, my strongest townread currently

my only ??? about their slot was them saying they townread me on meta when i had made ~2 nonsense posts, but like uhh i don't like pressing on that if that reveals alt-related info

and the rest of their posting is :goodposting: so here we are

HEAL: bella i guess?

HEAL: Datisi, Hero, Merlyn, Bella, Implosion

i don't think scum-ari would put an all-town coalition forward

positioning to push me and hero upon this coalition failure would surely be... a choice. maybe not that impossible to push me i guess but it's still p bizarre

[Hero at Heart]

all of these are pretty subtle pockets, but are pockets nonetheless.

[Hero at Heart]

254 is especially sinister because it makes the assumption that we're aligned/allied and that a push on one is a push on the other.

[Hero at Heart]

If you really want Hero today, we can do him.
Though, I agree with Merlyn that his EoD would've been performative as scum.

honestly this sounds to me like scum trying to avoid being the lim today.

[Hero at Heart]

you forget the world where ari is scum and therefore i won't let bella be limmed for no reason.

we can do RH-ari-hero, that's fine.

[Hero at Heart]

cause she ain't scum?

[Hero at Heart]

i don't see any world where bella or implo could be scum.

[Hero at Heart]

well go ahead and vote

of course i could be wrong, but then do you actually have a good reason to suspect bella?

[Hero at Heart]

I am not sure how many times I have to tell you that I have seen him fake emotional reactions to game events as mafia for you to understand it is not clearing and his emotional reactions do not even make sense

you know what. this is such bullshit.

i will just play the game with no emotion then, if it's scummy for me to have emotions.

let's lim ari instead of RH9.

VOTE: ari

[Hero at Heart]

nah RH9 is still scum

VOTE: RH9

[Hero at Heart]

if this flips green i want ari tomorrow though

[Hero at Heart]

actually idk.

i can read this:

I do not expect the game to end but I will be ecstatic if it does.

as ari having tmi on rh9.

she also felt she had tmi on kittens when she said "kittens can be only scum with datisi", and it also feels she had tmi on datisi when she said she will push me after the coalition fails in day 1.

VOTE: ari

[Hero at Heart]

i am saying your emotions are fake

well then you are wrong

try reading my play with the mindset of "i have scum guilt from winning last game as scum and i really want to be town with datisi and ari to make up for it" and all my posts would make sense to you

[Hero at Heart]

because i said i would eliminate you tomorrow 100% and you have to get rid of me

if you night kill me it would implicate you

[Hero at Heart]

before I pushed you you wanted to flip RH9 and then Doctor Drew

i don't recall saying that? let me have a look

if anything your response to me is blatantly survivalistic

how so? i literally said i want to do RH9 > ari > hero

[Hero at Heart]

hi titus!

[Hero at Heart]

but i do wanna flip drew next.

okay i said that, but that was before drew explained his thoughts properly

[Hero at Heart]

you aren't thinking hmm does town!ari think I would fake emotional responses as scum? because you and I both know that's what you did when we last played together and you were mafia.

except i disagree with that

i don't think i faked any emotional responses, unless you mean doing something like "oh i'm so confused about who is scum and idk who to vote" or "wow i can't believe that guy threw!" is considered faking emotional responses.

[Hero at Heart]

you were literally lining up drew as the next lim after rh9 while claiming that RH9 flipping would end the game

i was, right up until i voted you last page, about 80% sure rh9 is scum

am i not allowed to have second and third place scumreads?

[Hero at Heart]

do you actually want me to start quoting posts from the other game

no

[Hero at Heart]

can you tell me two things:

1. did you even read the examples i quoted for datisi pocketing me? do you think that wasn't actual pocketing? do you think datisi is not capable of creating fake associatives like that? because the way you (and ausuka) described his sucmplay in that other game, he definitely can.

2. does my play toward std at end of day make sense as a partner? it's literally shady as fuck and shows zero gamestate awareness, which i know you know is very uncharacteristic for scum!me. (or in other words, i know you know i have gamestate aweareness as scum)

[Hero at Heart]

personally I think you were pretty excited to roll scum with Datisi

I think you told him you wanted to townblock with him or whatever similar to how we played it.

I think him pretending to not know who you were was fake because you probably told him in the scum pt who you were

I think you and him defending each other strongly d1 was how you decided to play it

I think your townread of him made no sense and I think his townread of you also made no sense considering I told him who you were and he knows this is what your scumgame looks like.

then he repped out and the coalition passed and STD didnt really want to play and came under pressure so you bussed him.

it doesn't particularly matter to me how much you hem and haw that it's not you - I am pretty much immune to that kind of AtE.

If you're town I hope you're right that RH9 is actually mafia because this is probably a loss if he isn't

i understand where this take comes from, because datisi literally played the game with fake associatives to implicate me.

but yeah, it's fake! i don't really know how to say it other than it's absolutely poor play for datisi to have such obvious associatives with the partner, and it's absolutely within his scumrange,

according to your own words

, to create fake associatives like that with town.

[Hero at Heart]

I don't understand why you thought his townread of you made any sense.

well maybe i am dumb then

sorry, i guess datisi was obvscum this game and that's why literally everyone except you and implo wanted him on the coalition

[Hero at Heart]

you saw three votes hit STD putting him at e-2 and leading candidate to be limmed. if you're partnered with him what r u going to do? flail around and performatively vote/unvote a bunch of times is not an unreasonable thing for scum!you to do.

it is unreasonable

i would absolutely hard bus

you have zeor evidence of me ever flailing performatively as scum, because that's literally not a thing i do. if you want go read that game again, i literally hard bussed my partner the second they were in danger.

[Hero at Heart]

ok fine hero why did you think Datisi's townread of you was a geniune townread

because i felt i was radiating townvibes early game and it made sense that datisi picked up on these townvibes, and then he sort of refused to explain it in a way that sounded like how you won't really explain a vibe based read.

[Hero at Heart]

hammering your partner at elo after the confirmed town player votes for your partner is not a "hardbus"

well you should read the entire day phase.

saying "why are you voting [town player] over [partner], please vote [partner]" is hard bus

as well as saying "hmmm idk if it's [partner+townie] or [partner+other partner], but it's definitely [partner]"

[Hero at Heart]

shitty scum distancing that won me the game :shrug:

[Hero at Heart]

are you saying that my play toward std is similar to my play toward you in elo?

how????

i'm so fucking confused by this

[Hero at Heart]

what "flailing" did i do in that day phase?

[Hero at Heart]

this is actually bonkers and i can't believe i'm having that argument here

i know you did meta research on me because it's literally in our scum pt

you should know i'm susceptible to pockets and that i tend to take townreads on me at face value.

you should know i've never flailed in order to protect a scum buddy

so idk if you are lying intentionally because you are scum or if you are lying to yourself because you are tunneled, or if you honestly believe this bulllshit, but i am done arguing here

[Hero at Heart]

VOTE: titus[/v[

whatever

[Hero at Heart]

mod pls fix tag thanks

[Hero at Heart]

so scum!me knows you're susceptible to pockets and fake townreads and I decide to scumread you instead because lol why?

did you see i'm voting titus not you?

[Hero at Heart]

i think you've made it pretty clear i'm your #2 scumread

i think i made it pretty clear i have no idea what to make of your posts these last 2 pages

[Hero at Heart]

:shrug:

[Hero at Heart]

noooo
that's the worst post 1000 ever

[Hero at Heart]

oh no did i just reveal my identity as an alianna alt

/s

[Hero at Heart]

oh snap i just realized what ari was referring to when she said i faked emotions as scum last time

uhhhhhhh, i guess all i can say is that it's different this time

like i still think if you read these emotional responses side by side, the ones here would look pretty different, but you are right, it's not actually clearing at all (not that i ever claimed it was, it was mainly merlyn and implo who claimed that).

but anyway, i will just say this:

i don't care if you call it "shitty scum distancing" or "hardbussing" or "soft bussing" or "jiggluxing" or "hammering someone when it was obvious they would be hammered and somehow getting townread for it even though you shouldn't be townread for it at all".
the point is, i could have done that this game. and i

should

have done that if i were std's partner. what i did in the eod makes me look objectively bad and partnered with std. in fact it probably would have made me look bad if std were town, too. the point is, it makes no sense for scum!me to have done that, and just put myself at risk and make myself an easy d2 wagon, when i could just "shitty scum distance" or "hard bus" or "jugglux" or whatever and just hammer std and look good and say on day 2 "okay i think std was only scum in coalition" and then mislim rh9 into ths, and get to a 3p elo with implo and either you or bella or something and win the game by just continuing to do whatever it is that i did that got me townread so far (a bunch of people have expressed that they're willing to lose to scum!me because i am very townie, apparently).

but instead i didn't hammer std and acted all scummy

and you want me to believe that you think i did this as scum?????

and yes, you could claim wifom, but the wifom is not good enough for scum!me to just throw away a winning position for some wifom points. the evidence that this play is terrible play for scum!me is the fact that you are pushing me right now.

and no, you can't say "well obviously you are just bad scum" because you are literally claiming that i am faking emotional responses and playing so masterfully as scum that everyone is townreading me and wanting to throw if i'm scum

you can't claim this is the case and also say i'm just bad scum

pedit: cool titus is just scum then.

[Hero at Heart]

EBWOP:

oh snap i just realized what ari was referring to when she said i faked emotions as scum last time

uhhhhhhh, i guess all i can say is that it's different this time

like i still think if you read these emotional responses side by side, the ones here would look pretty different, but you are right, it's not actually clearing at all (not that i ever claimed it was, it was mainly merlyn and implo who claimed that).

but anyway, i will just say this:

i don't care if you call it "shitty scum distancing" or "hardbussing" or "soft bussing" or "jiggluxing" or "hammering someone when it was obvious they would be hammered and somehow getting townread for it even though you shouldn't be townread for it at all".
the point is, i could have done that this game. and i

should

have done that if i were std's partner. what i did in the eod makes me look objectively bad and partnered with std. in fact it probably would have made me look bad if std were town, too. the point is, it makes no sense for scum!me to have done that, and just put myself at risk and make myself an easy d2 wagon, when i could just "shitty scum distance" or "hard bus" or "jugglux" or whatever and just hammer std and look good and say on day 2 "okay i think std was only scum in coalition" and then mislim rh9 into ths, and get to a 3p elo with implo and either you or bella or something and win the game by just continuing to do whatever it is that i did that got me townread so far (a bunch of people have expressed that they're willing to lose to scum!me because i am very townie, apparently).

but instead i didn't hammer std and acted all scummy

and you want me to believe that you think i did this as scum?????

and yes, you could claim wifom, but the wifom is not good enough for scum!me to just throw away a winning position for some wifom points. the evidence that this play is terrible play for scum!me is the fact that you are pushing me right now.

and no, you can't say "well obviously you are just bad scum" because you are literally claiming that i am faking emotional responses and playing so masterfully as scum that everyone is townreading me and wanting to throw if i'm scum

you can't claim this is the case and also say i'm just bad scum

pedit: cool titus is just scum then.

[Hero at Heart]

It feels like Hero knows I'm town and is doing self preservation and setting up to change reads.

that's literally the opposite of what i was doing

[Hero at Heart]

Even now, you still are. Why would you dacepalm my statements rather than accusing me of musrepping you? You can't because you know I am town.

why is using the word "misrepping" necessary to convey this message?

this is such a ridiculous shade i can't even

i "dacepalmed" not because i "know you are town", but because i don't know for sure that you are scum, and could not know for sure it was an intentional mis rep.

however, this post (one i'm quoting) is definitely a misrep.


and yes, bella is right, 912 is extremely bad an survivalistic.

[Hero at Heart]

bella can you just hammer or something?

i just don't see a world where all of the following things are true:
1. a slot lurks half the game and explicitly says they don't even know why they're playing it when they realize they aren't townread.
2. the slot replaces twice
3. two of the players in that slot have bad associatives with flipped scum, independent of each other
4. two of the players in that slot make a bad push in a desperate survival attempt, independent of each other
5. the slot still flips town

[Hero at Heart]

[Hero at Heart]

^ clearly scum trying to blend in

oh nooooo you caught me

[Hero at Heart]

okay i'm really really really surprised drew died. i was actually planning to vote him today because i had a sneaking suspicion that his "rh9 > bella > hero" plan was constructed to chain mislims.

I lowkey kind of think Hero would have killed me last night so me being alive points to him being innocent

really? i think i would have never killed you because that would point to me being scum 10/10 times

however, i can see why you think that, since killing you would probably ease the pressure on me if i were scum

I am kind of worried implosion is mafia because him still being alive is not making much sense to me esp killing Drew over him is kind of a ???

so yesterday i was like, i am going to give implo a free pass today, and just vote within ari and drew, but then i thought "well but if he sruvives it's kinda weird because he's like never getting mislimmed here" and then i thought "well if he survives then wouldn't that mean he's mafia and has to keep me and ari alive so by way of wifom he could claim one of us two is mafia and is keeping him alive to not get limmed"
and then i just said "well if he's maf he just deserves the win tbh"

buuuut, considering drew's flip i literally can't vote between ari and drew and this makes no sense so i'm going to have to read implo's day 1 *yet again*

ngl if implo was maf that was some crazy distancing he did.

[Hero at Heart]

if hero does turn out to be mafia and wins this game I don't care that I've readflipped on him 4 times I'll still claim I knew it was him

ari

why can't you be nice to me :*(

[Hero at Heart]

wait i think i did it wrong

here: :'(

[Hero at Heart]

so yesterday i was like, i am going to give implo a free pass today, and just vote within ari and drew, but then i thought "well but if he sruvives it's kinda weird because he's like never getting mislimmed here" and then i thought "well if he survives then wouldn't that mean he's mafia and has to keep me and ari alive so by way of wifom he could claim one of us two is mafia and is keeping him alive to not get limmed"

let me just clarify this thought process:

assume for a second i am mafia

if i kill ari night 1, and implo night 2, and then don't die night 3, then it would be really obvious that i am mafia since i am obvtown and not dead

by the same token, if implo is mafia and kills me and ari but then doesn't die, it would also make it obvious he's scum

of course this could be wifom, in which case gj last scum, but i do think the fact that all three are alive does somewhat point to implo. the problem is it could also point to ari

which is why this game is so fun.

i have a headache right no w unrelated to the game, so when it passes i'll read implo (i think i already said that) and then we'll see what happens.



oh and before you claim it's tmi for me to know implo survives the nightkill, i'll just say that my thought process was just extrapolation of him surviving n1.

[Hero at Heart]

I guess it's hard for me to collaborate with people and that's a personal failing of mine I am more than happy to actually discuss scumreads/townreads with you all if you actually have suspects you want to talk about

i actually do want to discuss townreads/scumreads

i feel the attitude here has been really anti-town and i don't like it

i kinda get this awful feeling from everyone saying "i don't know who it is" in the sense that if this wasn't an open setup, i would think there are 2 living scum right now, or something crazy like that.

i know, this sounds exactly like saying "i don't know who it is". but it's not because i do actually have reads

so i feel this is pretty much basic wifom. killing outside the coalition points to the maf being inside the coalition. you could argue then that it's merlyn who's wifoming us, but i'm actually willing to bet that merlyn gets nightkilled today (and me saying this won't jinx it because if merlyn lives i probably won't vote her in elo anyway, so scum should shoot her tonight either way). and i know it's fucked up because i was sort of pushing merlyn earlier, but honestly i just feel like she's not making any effort to be townread and this is a towny behavior i guess. i would make

some

effort to be townread if i were scum.

now onto ari - i said i am playing without emotions now, which is true, but i just can't bring myself to vote ari. of she scum, i will find that out on day 4.

implo - mechanically, it makes a lot of sense that he's scum. but his play just feels very town. though now looking at it through the "holy shit datisi was scum" lens, i could also see it being scum. hmmmm...

actually the more i look at it through this lens, the more i feel like implo's iso is constructed of a lot of diplomatic posts that are meant to appease and gain favor with everyone. ugh. let me go read his interaction with the std slot.

[Hero at Heart]

nah idk actually

implo do you have completed scum games to link?

[Hero at Heart]

also with bella, my tr on her was based on assuming she was in her town meta, but i realize now that there's something slightly off and this might be an imitation of her town meta than her real town meta

so i think i want today to lim between bella and implo.

[Hero at Heart]

he could but there was no counterwagon except him

by staying on std he got some sweet distancing going

[Hero at Heart]

Do you wanna talk to me about this? I feel my scum game has been better recently, but it's actually because I fake aggression better, which gets tr more easily.

sure, i just feel normally in your town game you have these reads that make sense and are easy to follow, and they are quite consistent, but here's you have been slightly more flip-floppy and your reads haven't been all that easy for me to follow, if i'm being honest.

[Hero at Heart]

Why would scum kill mer? I feel like that was a more useful kill when they killed ths, not now

why?

[Hero at Heart]

sorry, real life issues

[Hero at Heart]

if i'm here anyway, quick q:

ari, how reliable is reading you as unpartnered with datisi simply because of your unenthusiastic attitude toward him in early game?

[Hero at Heart]

ok wtf

that implo progression on me caught me off guard

like i do think scum implo would push me here, but the way he is going about pushing me sounds genuine.

ughhhh idk

[Hero at Heart]

In fact, I'd love to hear Bella and Hero too. Who are you leaning towards? Do you have any hard town reads? Let's get some content on the board.

i was leaning towards implo but his recent posts make me want to not play this game because he's the only scum candidate that makes sense to me but he's so towny.

honestly you are both the one i least want to lim and also the one i most want to lim right now.

i am actually pretty confident about town!ari.

still unsure about bella, her defense was a bit dull.

Also, wine

sorry i forgot to ask, what does that mean?

Like, my reads have been boring af

yes that's exactly why i am sus of you. they are just boring and i can see scum using that to blend in.

[Hero at Heart]

list of people from who i want to lim most to i want to lim least:

implo <--- good lim
bella
merlyn
ari
hero <--- bad lim

list of people by how towny they are:

hero <--- towniest
implo
merlyn
ari
bella <--- least towny

list of people by how scummy they are:

merlyn <--- scummiest
ari
hero
bella
implo <--- least scummy


is this consistent? well it looks like it on a surface level. but if someone is neither towny or scummy (bella) it just means they are null. if someone is both towny and scummy (merlyn) they are probably just town.

if someone is town by day play and scum by mech (implo), then i don't know if it's a good idea to let them live to elo.

also if you are asking yourself why i'm confident on ari town when she's not that towny, it's because i don't think ari's townplay is very towny by the metrics i use to judge towniness. and i do think she would be more towny and less scummy if she was scum.

[Hero at Heart]

oh and also literally everyone here is towny. if someone here wasn't towny then they'd be dead yesterday instead of titus.

[Hero at Heart]

is this consistent? well it looks like it on a surface level

that should read "inconsistent" lol

[Hero at Heart]

Is there enough people that people do agree on to have not hero, Ari or mala in the coalition?

bella why are you sring me all of a sudden?

@hero, I'm not really, I'm talking about one we could agree on? I dunno, I still like dats' suggestion

i just read this again and i'm actually struggling to understand that thought process as town.

were you trying to get a town coalition or were you merely trying to get a coalition people could agree on? because i feel excluding the three you wanted to exclude is definitely a way to get a compromise coaltion "people can agree on" with zero success chances. idk if it's just me.

also the "still like dats' suggestion" feels a bit like a slip, because he only suggested it after i asked you why you wanted a coalition without me. it's like the littlest slip ever, but right now everyone is so townie i have to look under the rug to find anything scummy.

would like the rest of you to also check that and make sure i'm not hallucinating.

[Hero at Heart]

Anyway, re mer: I think right now mer would be a really low info kill, which in some ways is helpful to scum, but I feel like if that's what they wanted, killing them nighr one would've been more helpful? Ths felt same levels of info but more lim-able?

well basically i think ths stopped being limmable after std flipepd scum, there was no world where these two were partnered (imo).

merlyn is and has always been somewhat limmable but never the most limworthy person.

[Hero at Heart]

Also, I find positioning around my buddies super hard: I think my tr of datisi would be super ballsy

i mean i would call this a defense, idk why you wouldn't call it a defense.

[Hero at Heart]

VOTE: hero @ heart

sorry if wrong

ari no

can u explain why?

[Hero at Heart]

huh

i literally said i didn't pull up his iso but i guess you don't have to believe me on that

yeah i was enumerating the reasons for the tr because it wasn't based on a single post or a single facet of his play, but many.

however around the time the coalition was locked in several things happened together that changed my mind:

he got replaced
the coalition failed
std LIED about not intentionally hammering
maybe more

so these things added up to me realizing he's probably scum, and even before that i read a scum game of his because implo said how i'm naive or something, and then i reread his iso and it all clicked. because these WERE the thing scumtisi was good at. and while they were extremely towny they were also quite different from his behavior in that game we played (though i admit this is a detail i only noticed when i was rereading that game yesterday for the sake of nostalgia)

why is it hard to believe an uninformed player could readflip like this? i think your first readflip on me (when you said "fine i'll tr you" and healed my coalition vote) also feels very convenient for example, but i don't suspect you for it.

also like, i had players before who i locked in as town only to later readflip on.

[Hero at Heart]

it feels like you've sort of been playing your game in a way that's not enmeshed in the rest of the game.

that's exactly what i was feeling about bella that i was scumreading

but i think that might be something she does as town somewhat?

[Hero at Heart]

btw here's a post i drafted earlier and never submitted, idk if it will help ari townread me or make her scumread me even more but i just want to share it cause why not:



okay i just wanna share my thought process here and why i am against bopping (i know we've already moved on from bopping but i thought of this earlier and wanna share)

here's my logic:

assume ari is town and decides to bop shot. then unless she has like amazing reads, she basically has 25% chance to win, otherwise town loses because she gets autolimmed next day.

whereas if we just lim 2 people at random, there's a 1/5 + 4/5*1/3 (=4/15) = 7/15, or just under 50% chance to win.

also if we lim 2 people not at random and i am convincing enough not to be limmed either time, then fmpov since i am town it's a 1/4 + 3/4*1/2 (=3/8) = 5/8 chance to win, which is pretty good

i have been convincing so far since:
1. the coalition i wanted got picked
2. the person i wanted limmed on both day 1 and day 2 got limmed.

so i think i got this.

except i really don't trust my reads so maybe i don't got this.



now for who should be limmed today:
i think merlyn dies tonight 10/10 times, and the explanation for that is that it's optimal for scum to have a 3p with only coalition members. so i don't want to kill her.

i think town never wins a 3p with me, ari and implo so i want to kill one of us. preferably implo because i am simply not voting ari today. i refuse to have my townread on both her and datisi be wrong. and i don't really wanna kill me because it doesn't gain us anything.

i guess bella is also an option today (but not the preferred one) because i really don't know what the hell 3p elo with her would look like and i'm kinda scared that it will be horrible.

as i said i don't think i have any scumread that will actually kill scum with a >rand chance, so that's why i'm thinking in terms of what's the best elo and not who's the likeliest to be scum (since i simply have no clue). however i do think i explained why merlyn and ari have slightly better than rand to be town which is why i'm also not limming them today.

also implo continues to be the towniest person by far but unfortunately that doesn't mean he can't be scum.

[Hero at Heart]

merlyn i said i won't vote you even if you live

i get why you don't believe that, but think of the following:

i promised ari not to lim her if coalition failed, and i didn't do that. so am a man of my word


anyway you can lim me, it might even be optimal so i don't get mislimmed last day, but i will be very sad and it will be a miselim

[Hero at Heart]

i'll be honest i don't think i am going to feel good about any vote i make here


so maybe it's best to lim me anyway cause i can't even think of an alternate wagon.

[Hero at Heart]

uh what

do u have like actual reasoning for that

[Hero at Heart]

if implo hammers with this reasoning please lim him tomorrow thanks

[Hero at Heart]

"putting gaith in ari" is bs

[Hero at Heart]

faith*

[Hero at Heart]

no no u don't get it

if i'm scum i will not push you but the other townie in 3p elo

and if i'm town i still won't push you in 3p elo

[Hero at Heart]

(i will have u kno that this is mostly lighthearted, i don't actually expect you to be convinced. though i do expect you to realize i'm town considering i haven't acted in a very survivalistic manner and am not even pushing any of you/implo/ari)

[Hero at Heart]

(these 3 are the grouping of the people wanting to lim me to be clear)

[Hero at Heart]

honestly not buying this

if u town you needn't trust someone who has clearly played the game to set up my lim from before the coalition was locked in on whether or not i'm scum

also idc about personality. my associatives with datisi make no sense

ari's theory was that i wanted to form a town block with datisi because i was excited to play scum with him. this would make sense in any other setup. in this setup it would be outright suicidal for both scum to be hard tring each other with zero reasoning given and both be in the coalition, because as soon as one flips, or even as soon as one member of the coalition that's not them flips town, it becomes super obvious what's going on.

[Hero at Heart]

like do you actually think me and datisi are so stupid we would hard tr each other as scum and then try to mislim everyone else in the coalition except us? in what universe do scum players as good as datisi and as good as what ari is painting me to be*, actually do something as obvious as that???

*tbh i kinda feel that just from reading ari's analysis of scum!hero's play i've gained inspiration to use in my next scum game.

[Hero at Heart]

well i'm trying to figure it out by talking with you guys. do you want me to rush through this day phase saying confidently that i think it's ari, let's say, and then if she flips town (cause i'm being real here and i don't think any of us has reads that are better than slightly >rand) get autolimmed tomorrow? no thanks

i want to actually poke people and search for a scummy reaction.

anyway i was heavily leaning implo but the fact he didn't hammer me gives me pause. i still want him to provide his own reasoning for calling me scum, i don't think sheeping ari is enough.

[Hero at Heart]

i will say that my scum case on implo is based on the fact that if you read his iso starting from post 935 onwards, you see the smoothest transition between a hyper townread on hero, can't believe hero is ever scum here, to "i wanna hammer hero but not yet".

and what bothers me is the smoothness of it, there are no bumps, no wild turns left or right, no flip flopping. it feels a bit artificial. compare it with ari's 4 times of readflipping or whatever, where she was like super scumreading me in one post then saying "fine i'll tr you" in the next post. the fact it isn't smooth makes it feel organic, at least to me.

[Hero at Heart]

rush through the day phase...? Hero, there's one day left

ugh i was not paying attention to the deadline

oh well

VOTE: implosion

watch as he freaks out and hammers me.

[Hero at Heart]

could you expand on that thought process?

[Hero at Heart]

ehhhh, you know what

i'm capable of believing datisi was faking a weak, hesitant tr on ari because he didn't want to scumread his scum partner

also i kinda think ari's reaction to me having a 99% confidence on datisi town might be tmi from her lollll.

VOTE: ari

[Hero at Heart]

like i've read datisi / ari's interactions so many times this game i don't even have to go back to check them, they are etched into my brain

and this is like theeee post that gave me serious pause on datisi which i probably should have paid more heed to:

how is that different than asking "why does scum ever pretend to scumread anyone ever" because the answer to that is pretty obvious and i don't get why it wouldn't be applicable to mala?

pedit: okay that makes more sense

i still think the thought process is flawed but i like the thought process itself form you (i sweat and question my life choices as i type that out)

pedit: yes that's why i was given pause on implo, i fully expected scum!him to hammer and was preparing to write a full blown scum case on his shady hammer but it didn't happen.

[Hero at Heart]

this page just reinforces my view that hero is just making up whatever he thinks will get him to the next day and doesn't actually have any concrete view about who the last mafia is

i'm sorry that i'm not a scumhunting god

it's not like i openly stated i think i have weak reads and they're only slightly better than random, right?

[Hero at Heart]

your decision to move from implosion to me is based on Merlyn unvoting you and saying its not implosion or bella which means her vote could land on me and not based on you believing I am mafia.

who do you think i should be voting as town here?

[Hero at Heart]

honestly ari i don't think this game is winnable for town if you are town and you keep tunneling me this way

even if i unvote you and vote scum, you are just gonna vote me off and then get voted off tomorrow

it's kinda ridiculous that you can't leave this aside for more than a few minutes with all your readflipping.

[Hero at Heart]

UNVOTE:

it's late and i want to think about this in depth tomorrow.

[Hero at Heart]

hero do you think i'm scum or do you not think i'm scum

i think i made myself clear and it's kind of annoying that i keep being asked about this, BUT I DON'T THINK TODAY'S LIM IS GOING TO HAVE BETTER THAN 33-40% CHANCE OF BEING RIGHT. If we do a random lim then it has 20% of being right, mathematically. I don't think any of us has reads that are much better than random and if someone says they have they are either lying, or lying to themselves, because everyone else here is pushing me and i'm town, and i know my reads today aren't perfect. if my reads were perfect i wouldn't have voted titus or included std in the coalition. SO THIS MEANS I CANNOT ANSWER A QUESTION LIKE THIS BY A SIMPLE ANSWER LIKE "YES I THINK YOU ARE SCUM" OR "NO I DON'T THINK YOU ARE SCUM".

HOWEVER, i thought you were the likeliest to be scum until you re-appeared and didn't hammer which completely shattered my scum case on you.

Like honestly this is a fairly reasoned point against me. The reason it's the case is because my town case on you essentially amounted to one thing that over time I realized wasn't good enough in the game we're in. But like, I don't understand how you make this post, then vote me, then six minutes later you vote ari. After you were arguing that Merlyn should let you live because you're literally never going to vote Merlyn, and after all game you talked about how you were never voting Ari, like you have things that are set in stone but you just don't. I don't understand why you're playing this way as either alignment tbh. It feels like such a weird kind of performativity.

ok so here's the deal. if i was reading you correctly (as scum) then your plan was to continue with the same smooth progression on me and then eventually hammer it. but you didn't, so that threw me into doubt on you. merlyn made a good point so i re-looked at the possibility of ari!scum, one which i had earlier dismissed, and found that it is possible. it's the same process i had with re-looking at datisi!scum or re-looking at you!scum or re-looking at THS!town and seeing that is possible.

and i actually promised ari not to lim her if the coalition failed as a result of the coalition failing, which i indeed kept as a promise since the person who was limmed as a result of the coalition failing was std, not her. but you can't expect me to actually NEVER look at ari at all and question her alignment.

and yes i agree it's weird as either alignment, but i guess i'm just not playing optimally this game?

more later cuz i really gotta go rn

[Hero at Heart]

i don't really know why it's so staggering when ari has either had the same amount or even more reads volatility than me.

the only difference is maybe the presentation.

and regarding how long it took to re-look at it, like i said i've read their posts so many times this game it's not even funny. i am not joking when i said it'setched into my brain.

so yeah, i didn't need to go back and reread the posts, i just remembered certain things and was like "uh, i guess that makes sense actually"

[Hero at Heart]

also i kind of feel like every time you talk to implosion about him hammering you its like you are trying to scare him into not hammering you.

which doesn't make sense if you're town and you think he's scum who is angling to hammer you because like that's kind of his win condition and he knows that hammering you is a town flip so there's nothing to scare him with.

i am not trying to scare him, i was just confident he would hammer and was surprised he didn't.

and since when does thinking he's scum about to hammer override thinking town!him shouldn't hammer?

[Hero at Heart]

honestly the more i look at it the less ari's case on me makes sense to me

i feel she's been mischaracterizing my scum meta, mischaracterizing my play this game, and using contradictory assumptions about how i would play scum to scumcase me.

if she's town i sincerely feel we just lose here because we'll both get mislimmed.

oh well, it's not like i didn't predict this happening.

VOTE: aristeia

[Hero at Heart]

its amusing that you are trying to guilt trip me to manipulate me to stop pushing you while also claiming i am the most likely to be mafia.

it's very un-amusing you don't understand that i said 100000000000 times that i don't feel my reads are going to be better than 40% accurate today.

yes i will absolutely assume the person likeliest to be scum also has a high probability of being town.

[Hero at Heart]

it's kind of sad that you guys consider honesty about the fact that i don't know something to be scummy.

the scumny thing to do is to lie and say "yeah i *know* that this other person is scum, let's kill them, i'm super confident about that"

i'm literally being more honest than the average town player, and definitely more honest than in 90% of my town games, by admitting that i don't have certainty about something which i really don't have certainty about.

the joke is on everyone voting me, like for real.

[Hero at Heart]

anyway, if i actually knew who the scum is i would probably write something like "please lim ___ tomorrow", but as i really don't feel i know, i am not going to do that.

i really do hope you manage to find scum tomorrow but if i'm being honest i don't think you can

peace out

[Hero at Heart]

i actually have no words

do you think i'm not trying to solve???

then what the hell were all my scumcases of ari and implo about?

[Hero at Heart]

i have a few things to say.

first of all, wow implo you were fucking good, you looked so towny right up until the end, even when i voted you on day 3 i had serious doubts because fucking hell you were towny. i'm impressed. you definitely deserved to win.

second of all, merlyn, i just didn't get your thought process at all in regards to voting me. you knew you were town. it's /beneficial/ for you as town not to be voted by someone else, regardless of if they are town or scum. why do you think me not wanting to vote you because i am that confident you are not scum is a scum characteristic / anti-town thing to do? if both of us survived to elo then the game would basically play out like an elo with a confirmed townie meaning 50% ev instead of 33% ev, which is amazing. but i guess i wasn't clear about saying i won't vote you because i am sure you are town, lol.

third of all ari, sorry for my shitty pushes on you, but i got really tilted from all your shitty pushes on me and at some point i just felt like i had enough of it and started playing really suboptimally. so sorry again.

fourth of all, i think i realize what mistake i've done that led me to be elimmed - i basically got too complacent about being being townread and stopped doing the one thing i'm very good at - looking extremely townie as town. and part of this includes that maybe i should have not shown my indecisiveness as much to you guys but pretended i was more confident on implo being scum.

oh and btw, i started composing this huge scum case on implo toward the end of day 3 but for some really stupid reason i let the fact that he didn't hammer me confuse me and i didn't post it, even though it was in line with how he played scum not to actually hammer immediately. oh well, next time i will just post such things.

[Hero at Heart]

nope, i would always go implo in a final 3 of you/me/implo. the fact that he was alive is simply too incriminating.

[Hero at Heart]

nope, i would always go implo in a final 3 of you/me/implo. the fact that he was alive is simply too incriminating.

lol, is this not you in the dead thread thinking I'm the scum after all?

I think we all kinda played bad the last couple days, should have been a slam dunk for us, ah well.

i can agree with this

let's see if merlyn somehow turns it around though

kind of think mer is the last mafia but wouldn't be surprised if i'm being a clown

huh, maybe you right

in which case i will fucking laugh at the fact that i was sring her day 1 due to a mostly innocuous interaction with doctor drew that i decided randomly /must/ be svt and then never shared it because i thought it was a silly read.

it's me saying "uh maybe" but in a "i don't really think it's true" way of maybe.

[Hero at Heart]

as in i didn't think it was the case but i said if it were the case, i would fucking laugh.

[Hero at Heart]

Yeah I was definitely grateful for this. I am fundamentally a coward who is afraid to commit to anything in the game (really as both alignments). I definitely can remember like one time in a scum game that I tried to take what looked like a free cheap hammer, but iirc it backfired pretty hard.

One more interesting thing - there was something in my ISO that I was sort of afraid was going to be a smoking gun particularly when Bella asked about setup mechanics near the end, which is my admittedly weak attempts to replace Datisi with someone else in the coalition. As I (truthfully) said, it's beneficial for scum (quite beneficial) to have only one scum on coalition, and I thought if I was the only scum on coalition I'd be able to parlay that into a lot of mislims much more easily than with both me and Datisi, especially since we could just kill of coalition every night and not arouse any suspicion on me. It is something that I could have posted as town but of everything I did this game that was by far the most agenda'd thing.

i didn't notice that specifically but i did notice your reluctance to have datisi in the coal, but i actually thought that was townie for most of the game (in the end i did think it was possibly partnered, but again, i changed my mind on you for that lack of hammer).