Open 899 - The Pizza Kids Coalition [Game Over]

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sup nerds

HEAL: Kyouko

I had Lou Malnati's for dinner tonight

[ssbm_Kyouko]

spaghetti

*eyes narrow*

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Regardless, I disagree with you about the (implied) idea that we should focus on townreads more than on scumreads. I am of the opinion that it is much easier for scum to fake townreads than scumreads (because the person they are townreading is actually town, most of the time, and they could have good reasons to TR them), and by focusing on townreads we're letting scum blend in much more easily.

In other words, it's very easy to say "I love pizza and I think Klick also loves pizza", and doesn't really lead to any conflict, whereas saying "I think implo secretly loves lasagna" is bound to stir the pot, so to speak.

this is just the wrong strategy for the setup, and also if you think like this, isn't giving out 2 townreads something scum is more likely to do? I don't think this idea that "focusing on townreads let's scum blend in" is your actual opinion if you're giving out a TR to Appearance for giving 2 TRs early in separated posts. Pretty much everything you've posted so far feels like a performance, and to cap it off with this I just think you're trying to throw a wrench in the coalition phase.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Regardless, I disagree with you about the (implied) idea that we should focus on townreads more than on scumreads. I am of the opinion that it is much easier for scum to fake townreads than scumreads (because the person they are townreading is actually town, most of the time, and they could have good reasons to TR them), and by focusing on townreads we're letting scum blend in much more easily.

In other words, it's very easy to say "I love pizza and I think Klick also loves pizza", and doesn't really lead to any conflict, whereas saying "I think implo secretly loves lasagna" is bound to stir the pot, so to speak.

this is just the wrong strategy for the setup, and also if you think like this,

isn't giving out 2 townreads something scum is more likely to do?

I don't think this idea that "focusing on townreads let's scum blend in" is your actual opinion if you're giving out a TR to Appearance for giving 2 TRs early in separated posts. Pretty much everything you've posted so far feels like a performance, and to cap it off with this I just think you're trying to throw a wrench in the coalition phase.

Not really unless you think scum is more likely to give 2 TR's in regular mafia (which I don't think).

On the other hand this post feels really forced.

How would me having scumreads be throwing a wrench in the formation of the coalition?

If anything I'm the person working most actively on forming a coalition, considering I have 3 people in my coalition while you only have yourself.

HURT: Kyo, implo

This is not the point I'm making. In 46, you say that we should focus scumreads more than townreads because focusing townreads lets scum blend in. At the same time, you say Appearance is town and so far all he'd done was give out 2 unexplained TRs. If you think scum blends in by focusing on TRs, you don't also think that Appearance is town. You're claiming to have one philosophy on how to play the setup that contradicts your reads.

Actually let me just explain my Appearance read

I thought this:

hi y'all!
will post more later

Quickly followed by this:

implo and t3 prob town for now.

Was more likely to come from town. Felt like a towny who didn't plan to post a read or anything but had a thought so posted it.

I also think that having 2 reads is likelier to come from town than from scum, who (like implo did) would be more likely to have a single read.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Regardless, I disagree with you about the (implied) idea that we should focus on townreads more than on scumreads. I am of the opinion that it is much easier for scum to fake townreads than scumreads (because the person they are townreading is actually town, most of the time, and they could have good reasons to TR them), and by focusing on townreads we're letting scum blend in much more easily.

In other words, it's very easy to say "I love pizza and I think Klick also loves pizza", and doesn't really lead to any conflict, whereas saying "I think implo secretly loves lasagna" is bound to stir the pot, so to speak.

this is just the wrong strategy for the setup, and also if you think like this,

isn't giving out 2 townreads something scum is more likely to do?

I don't think this idea that "focusing on townreads let's scum blend in" is your actual opinion if you're giving out a TR to Appearance for giving 2 TRs early in separated posts. Pretty much everything you've posted so far feels like a performance, and to cap it off with this I just think you're trying to throw a wrench in the coalition phase.

Not really unless you think scum is more likely to give 2 TR's in regular mafia (which I don't think).

On the other hand this post feels really forced.

How would me having scumreads be throwing a wrench in the formation of the coalition?

If anything I'm the person working most actively on forming a coalition, considering I have 3 people in my coalition while you only have yourself.

HURT: Kyo, implo

This is not the point I'm making. In 46,

you say that we should focus scumreads more than townreads

because focusing townreads lets scum blend in. At the same time, you say Appearance is town and so far all he'd done was give out 2 unexplained TRs. If you think scum blends in by focusing on TRs, you don't also think that Appearance is town. You're claiming to have one philosophy on how to play the setup that contradicts your reads.

Actually let me just explain my Appearance read

I thought this:

hi y'all!
will post more later

Quickly followed by this:

implo and t3 prob town for now.

Was more likely to come from town. Felt like a towny who didn't plan to post a read or anything but had a thought so posted it.

I also think that having 2 reads is likelier to come from town than from scum, who (like implo did) would be more likely to have a single read.

Misrep.

I merely said we shouldn't have our entire focus on TR's,

like DeasVail seemed to insinuate.

How is

this

a misrep?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

heal: elements

{Kyouko, Elements}

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh HEAL: Elements

brain no work

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh appearance is an alt hmm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Appearance, what's your read on T3?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, why?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wild that less than 3 pages have happened since my last content.

I have mixed feelings about the "implosion is trying to look like town" angle. I both want to say that it's probably a personality/playstyle quirk and that of course I'm going to try to look like town in a setup that is about finding and being found as town (which is I guess every setup that I've played since stepping down as listmod >_>). I don't think the latter is really being fair to the argument but it is just an annoying accusation to have levied when idk, I think I do fundamentally play the game with wanting to appear town in mind as town because I just enjoy the game more when I am found as town, it's probably not even out of thinking it's the best way to win, it's just the way I automatically think about the game.

I think probably something that does exist is being seen there but it's probably something you'd see in pretty much any of my towngames and it's telling that I'm being townread by Ydrasse (who has played with me very recently and also i think a second time semi-recently) and scumread by dragoneater (who i think has never played with me) and deasvail (who i'm pretty sure i've played with but probably not in something like half a decade).

Though it is possible Ydrasse is scum

Is there a reason for this in your opinion, or are you just putting it out there "in case" she's TMIing you and not "because you suspect" she's TMIing you? I reread over what Ydrasse posted about you originally and her talk about you with DE, and it seems like it's all been genuine

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright game solved for realsies

HEAL: Klick, Appearance, Dragon, Elements, DeasVail

Now I just lurk until DV and Klick figure out this is the correct solve and then we just convince two others.

The kind of rhetoric of this post is something I feel like I could write an essay about. In the last coalition game I played, I was scum and there was a player (Hero at Heart) who was repeatedly giving similar rhetoric of surety about their coalition (nb: both scum were in it). I think d1 in that game was somewhat easy for me to navigate probably in large part due to that kind of rhetoric, where certain people (myself included) were almost viewed as above scrutiny in a way that felt like it radiated out from Hero's reads. Granted, Hero actually did change his reads plenty of times iirc, but ultimately the town deferred to it with the only real objection coming from me (because i softly wanted my scumbuddy off the coalition).

In this case, I think this coalition is massively likely to have scum on it somewhere. And I don't think DragonEater has the same kind of rhetorical sway that Hero did in that game. But it really makes me not like the direction that this day is going right now.

It’s weird to me that you’d use the amount of time since we last played together to question the reliability of my read on you and then make an unsolicited comment on my scumplay (particularly since 5-10 years ago I was probably better known for strong town play than strong scum play).

The comment on scumplay is more a continuation of 155 than it is of 156

I'm kind of lost on "rhetorical" sway - is that just like "influence" over the game? I don't really know what rhetorical means outside of a "rhetorical" question
Are you trying to compare Dragon's sureness in his coalition to this HoH player's sureness? And saying Dragon doesn't have the same influence as HoH had?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Elements if we were in the voting stage (not coalition) who would you be voting for now? Also if you can think of this, who would you have voted for so far before the hypothetical "current" vote?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@mod I'll be V/LA over the weekend (every weekend actually)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Elements if we were in the voting stage (not coalition) who would you be voting for now?

right now probably ydra

Also if you can think of this, who would you have voted for so far before the hypothetical "current" vote?

I don't get what you mean here?

Like, you vote different people a lot - if there was no coalition phase, who might you have voted *before* Ydra

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: Klick

[ssbm_Kyouko]

DV, do you know who Appearance is, or is 300 a more general scum playstyle read?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm having a hard time seeing

why

DV is town. I feel like I can see that he

looks

town, but I also see a lot of agreeing. Like "I thought that too" kind of posting, and I feel like that's how scum gets into the coalition the easiest.

I think that's how I'd do it at least

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HURT: Klick, DeasVail
HEAL: Ydrasse

I think I have 5 town
Weakest of the 5 is probably Ydrasse atp?

Would mean 2 scum in {implosion, Appearance, T3, ssbm_Kyouko}

The question now is, are there any teams in that 4 that have been playing like they're about to lose if this coalition passes

I have been thinking about this...

I'd been thinking that implo, if scum, wasn't looking very concerned about an all-town coalition passing. Yes, he'd been discrediting me, but it feels a bit like a token effort. He doesn't even call me scum properly. If he were losing, I don't think he'd be playing like this.

Look at this post:

*snip*

If [DragonEater70's] suggested coalition gets passed and fails, I'll probably scrutinize him in more detail but right now it feels like I just don't have a ton of power in the game.

Maybe I'm overthinking this, but it almost feels like he KNOWS my coalition will pass and fail, and he's setting up to be able to miseliminate me afterwards. I just don't think scum throws such weak shade when they see a clear trajectory of where the coalition is going, and it's going bad for them.

Now before this post I entertained the idea that implosion could be scum with Ydrasse, and that this is why he didn't try too hard to be in the coalition. But as of the last votecount before this post, my coalition was Dragon/Klick/DV/Appearance/Elements. AND, by the time 331 was made, DV had already made 299, where he seemed to be leaning toward a DKVAE coalition as well. So it seems out of place for scum!implo to go "oh well I guess I'd scrutinize DragonEater70 if his coalition fails" if he sees my coalition will most likely pass and he knows that it contains no scum.

I'm hurting Klick and DV specifically because I feel like they are the slots I scrutinized the least, and which have the highest partner equity with implo, out of the ones in my coalition:

Implosion is the player outside coalition most strongly fighting status quo
Implying implosion!scum is with someone outside coalition

If coalition does not pass, implosion's town equity goes up quite a bit

I feel this post could be partnered with implosion.

this gamestate is pretty demotivating for me. i'm pretty sure any seemingly-likely coalition right now is going to just fail and i'll be able to do things then but oy.

I think my ideal coalition right now would be me/elements/kyouko/ydrasse/(t3 or maybe klick)

The "maybe Klick" is like a tiny bit +partner distancing wise.

Also implo has no stated read on DV anywhere except the "hmm 69 is interesting but I don't know what I think about it". Which never lead to anything (I don't count saying "it could be a post scum made and could mean something about his partner" leading to anything).

So if implo is scum (and I admit I might be tunneled here), I think one of these is his partner.

@Everyone - thoughts?

Generally speaking, I think preflipping under the assumption anyone is scum is actually more fine in this setup than usual because we get sort of a "trial flip" in the coalition phase where partner theories can be put to the test. I think what you've posted here about scum!implo tracks if he is scum - that likely he has a partner amongst {Dragon/Klick/DV/Appearance/Elements}, otherwise, scum!implo is giving up and hoping that town!{Dragon/Klick/DV/Appearance/Elements} are going to second-guess that coalition if he "blesses" it. At the same time, his suggested coalition is like, mostly opposite of yours so I don't think he's trying to get any of you to second-guess it, as his coalition is just going to reinforce the thinking that yours is pure. Like he knows he's mistrusted at this point I think.

I think the only reason I'm in his suggested coalition there is you and I have been butting heads but I don't see that as a good reason in this setup - scum are going to want to be distanced 1-on and 1-off, or just get 2 on. From a town!implo POV he should be more wary that you and I could be partnered I think.

Individually I can see DV as scum, I'll take a look if he seems partnered with implo as I look more into DV's reads/stances. I think I might just TR Klick's playstyle, I'd have to read a scumgame or 2 to be sure of that, but I don't have the bandwidth right now.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh I meant to color my response in green, didn't preview

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm having a hard time seeing

why

DV is town. I feel like I can see that he

looks

town, but I also see a lot of agreeing. Like "I thought that too" kind of posting, and I feel like that's how scum gets into the coalition the easiest.

I think that's how I'd do it at least

DV is a very agreeable person
This has been established already

I think by association implosion/DV is a reasonable scumteam
I can see how you read implosion play as setting up for failed coalition, but I don't know whether I'm convinced it's significantly more likely than him just being scum with T3 or Kyouko

I agree with the general logic that if implosion is town then the proposed coalition was probably a fail

But I also think you've presented plenty accurate evidence for myself!town and are paranoid about getting snowed
I'm willing to discuss the concept of DV-sxum but I don't think it's accurate

Something about these vibes off

Maybe it's just the first post discoloring the one that immediately follows it, but when I said "I TR Klick's playstyle" it's because his posting almost always looks like stream-of-consciousness. I just don't really feel like 364 flows the way Klick's posts normally do. I think it's that the line between being "agreeable" and repeatedly saying "I thought that too" isn't there for me. Maybe I'm remembering DV wrong and conflating "I agree" and "I thought that too", but the distinction is that if he agrees with something he isn't taking any credit for the thought. If he "thought that too" he's ingratiating himself.

Also Klick's posts seem to flow together from line break to line break - like a stream of consciousness like I was saying. He posts one thought, line breaks, posts the next, line breaks... etc. "this has been established already" doesn't sound very natural to me. like the wording feels different than Klick usually sounds. Maybe most of the time as either alignment Klick passes of posts as stream-of-consciousness or very point-to-point, but here I think it's not really what he's thinking so it comes out wrong. I could see Klick-DV as a partnership, I could see DV individually scum, I can see Dragon's point that if implo is scum it would be with one of these two

HURT: Klick
I think I healed him the other day

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think at least 1 scum amongst those 3 which would preclude Appearance/T3 as a team so some of the suspicion I had about the ease of Appearance's T3 read can kind of be nixed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think DV is town because he is talking with confidence like he has real opinions

Like this again feels 'off'

also I do think that the scum strategy even if outside a potential all-town coalition would be to not rock the boat too much. It's in town's nature to become paranoid and second-guess.

Like you're putting in the extra effort into the nuance here that makes me believe you care

but this feels like a real thought

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think DV is town because he is talking with confidence like he has real opinions

Like this again feels 'off'

also I do think that the scum strategy even if outside a potential all-town coalition would be to not rock the boat too much. It's in town's nature to become paranoid and second-guess.

Like you're putting in the extra effort into the nuance here that makes me believe you care

but this feels like a real thought

EBWOP

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nearly everything I have to say feels like a massive reach

You can still say it though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think I vibe with what Klick says

when he's not talking about DV

Especially this:

I think this is reinforced by the post implosion made earlier where he wished T3 specifically would post more

I think {implo, DV, Klick} is likely to contain both scum, and if I find one more person that doesn't really fit with town I can just heal the other 5. I think scum!Klick would be pretty good at doing what town!Klick would do and by his own admission that's kinda how he plays his scumgame. I guess that's how we all do it, but what I mean is like, scum!Klick is going to have conviction as though he's town whenever actual town leaves a vulnerability, because in his eyes they've done something wrong.

And yeah, DV makes a good point in 367 - I think that's why Klick's response to it looked natural again when his recent posting about DV did not look right. Because DV does make a good point, so it's natural to point it out in 370:

also I do think that the scum strategy even if outside a potential all-town coalition would be to not rock the boat too much. It's in town's nature to become paranoid and second-guess.

Like you're putting in the extra effort into the nuance here that makes me believe you care

Anyways what I was getting at above is that T3 might just be that 4th person that doesn't get the heal from me. It's down to T3/Appearance for my last slot right now.
HURT: all
HEAL: Kyouko, Elements, Dragon, Ydrasse

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I want to say Appearance is the heal but I don't see any

substantial

explanations for their reads in their ISO, and he's been questioned on it twice. He just gives low-content answers probably to help preserve the anonymity of the alt if he is town here.

I like 408:

ngl i'm starting to worry that scum's plan is not to get into a coalition but to prevent us from forming one.

But I'm not convinced this isn't something scum who is doing this exact thing can't post.

That said, looking at his actions in heals/hurts leading up to 408, it does seem like he's not doing that thing. As in, he

is trying

to form a coalition before deadline.

@Appearance, can you talk me through the reasoning for the changes in your coalition from 342/343/382?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Do you not TR our mystery alt?

I wasn't really satisfied with his answer about T3 earlier, and it didn't seem like there was any more to get out of him if I'd kept pressing. If he'd given me a more satisfactory answer at the time I was going to heal him. Recent posting looked good as well when I was catching up, but maybe fakeable ("scum would not try to get into the coalition but would try to not let a coalition pass"). As a whole his ISO leaves me with questions though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like looking at Appearance's ISO (looking at T3s now and seeing him quoting Appearance) I don't really see reasoning for the reads he's put out. Aside from more "naked" reads/heals, I see posts about what scum might be doing, but no conclusions are drawn about who is doing that and therefore who is scum. And I see multiple "I'll read later" kind of posts which generally can be ignored but this is a very slow game so seeing more than one of those kinda bothers me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 is just lacking though... I get why 14 gets TRed early on in the game but it doesn't go far up from there. When he brings up a point on his own, it seems like it's to do with implosion. He replies with thoughts about others but it seems

T3's

focus is implo:

I keep thinking this game is 7 players

there's also a part of me that wants to call this post like, really hard town for being the kind of thing scum would be very unlikely to genuinely think (because they have a scumbuddy they're interacting with/are probably more self-conscious about stuff) and also extremely unlikely to come up with the idea of faking

implosion is constantly saying things I agree with but I don't know if that makes him town.

He starts with this, which seems reasonable enough. I know some people hesitate to TR groupthink because it's an easy pitfall, but T3 is obvious about hesitating about it.

implosion’s reasoning for reads so far has resonated with me and i don’t think anything feels forced (which i think is more important in this setup because wolves want to sneak in at least one of them)

Agreed although iirc he's good at faking that as scum

This post a day later is still non-committal about implo - seems like T3 is hedging that implo is town but is always keeping the door open to scum!implo

I've reread through the game but I really don't have much to say

I'm interested in trying to work out a coalition but I'm struggling to find reads...

Nearly everything I have to say feels like a massive reach

(this is 3 posts sandwiched to 1 quote)
T3 has done a reread now and despite being 'interested in trying to work out a coalition' the read he does come back with is yet another on implosion. A scumread - conveniently by this point the thread state (DE, Klick, DV) seems to agree implo is scum here

This is not the point I'm making. In 46, you say that we should focus scumreads more than townreads because focusing townreads lets scum blend in. At the same time, you say Appearance is town and so far all he'd done was give out 2 unexplained TRs. If you think scum blends in by focusing on TRs, you don't also think that Appearance is town. You're claiming to have one philosophy on how to play the setup that contradicts your reads.

I don't like this post/line of logic. It feels less like a misrep (i actually don't like dragoneater calling it a misrep) and more like it's reductive, like if Dragoneater claims to have a particular philosophy that he mentioned then that philosophy doesn't necessarily underrun everything that he thinks. It's lacking in consideration imo as a reason to scumread dragoneater (and it does look like kyouko is scumreading dragoneater).

This seems like disingenuous scum

I feel like the 'reread' is possibly an excuse to now SR the popular SR now that town!implo doesn't seem to be on the table anymore.

More specifically I think implosion is experienced enough to know that questionable/reductive reasoning isn't necessarily an indicator of scum and that DE (one of his townreads) is doing the same thing

This I think is good reasoning. I could see it as a bus, hoping to get pulled into the coalition by agreeing his buddy is scum (but not just 'agreeing' - by 'rereading' and finding a different reason to SR implo it looks less like sheeping). I can see the possibility that T3 is town here and is really just having a hard time finding any TRs, but right now that's what's needed to form a coalition. If he is town he needs to step into gear with that.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see a lot of reasons why T3 could be scum with implo, but not necessarily anything to make me SR him individually. 14 is towny but past that I'm not convinced by anything, bar maybe 381. 381 is kind of poisoned by the fact that scum!T3 could be bussing Implo though. I want to see a coalition, or townreads, from T3. Or just more detailed reads on people that aren't implosion

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Anything in particular speaking to you yet, DV?

I agree with the general sentiment that T3 is more likely town.

that is all i've got right now

This post I think is characteristic of what you're describing Klick. DV is being "agreeable" here. He says "I agree" and doesn't state it like it was his original thought.

tbh i'm scared of scum distancing in this setup.

this was actually something I was thinking too.

Was it klick/dragoneater that pinged you as a potential distance as well, or more of a general fear?

This, imo, is different than agreeing. "I think so too", or "I agree" do not make it look like DV had this thought before Appearance posted it. This verbiage makes it seem that DV was thinking this

before

Appearance posted.

As for my read on Klick, he feels like he's not trying to be TR'd at all (unless he is playing a game of "let's pocket Dragon and get null'd by everybody else", which if it is the case then I wish him luck with that since idk how far it will get him), and I think that makes him pretty towny.

who do you think is trying to do that then?

he hasn’t posted a lot so i struggle to see how someone can very comfortably make that call i guess. there’s a part of me that thinks he could be playing a clever wolf game based on how he treated you by like… kind of uno carding you. i don’t know how likely this is but i felt it was possible, and if he was doing something like that he’s now got someone in his court without much loss. with what looks like recent history it makes sense to me that he might want to capitalize on that when presented with the chance, etc

implo is trying very hard to be TR'd.

So… this was actually my exact thought.

I think I might have been wrong on my read of you

The same language - using the past tense to show he was thinking this

before

Dragon posted it.

I liked how Elements mentioned having the thought of not wanting to be in the coalition

because that's a thought that I had early on as well

.

Which I know is unfortunately not necessarily a reason to think someone is town, but something I have been thinking about is how scum would want to position themselves in/out of the coalition etc. It's probably premature to think too much about that but.

~snip~

I believe this is in reference to 254 (snipped):

I went into this game from a perspective of thinking it would be unlikely we'd get a coalition win so if I wasn't in the coalition that puts me in a position to see a 1/5 and a 1/2 or a 2/5 which I think benefits town to solve.

Again I did not see any indication that DV had thought this yet, and here he is once again saying he thought of this before.

I struggle to get anything conclusive from T3 or Kyouko on this
I'm curious if {DragonEater, DV, Elements, Ydrasse} have thoughts on this

I feel the same as you re: Ydrasse, T3 and Kyouko

Now this is also, like the first post, an example of DV being agreeable like Klick says.

that was my pet theory too, though I'm not confident in it

This one, I'm willing to believe town!DV could have been thinking this before Klick posted 352, given the content of DV's 351 it's not a stretch.

When DV is "agreeable", he's always talking to Klick.
When he's mentioned "I thought that too" (or similar past tense verbiage) he was talking to Elements, Dragon, and Appearance.

So uh, maybe he doesn't feel the need to pocket his buddy the same way as Elements/Dragon/Appearance

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko you are pointing out the difference between me talking about something I already have an opinion on vs me talking about something that I've just thought about
I already have opinions on DV because I know DV well and I know he's likely to think about things in a 'I thought that too' sort of way
When I'm talking about other stuff I'm learning as I go

I don't really buy this - that's what prompted 468, I'd been reading your ISO and it didn't seem like a difference between already having an opinion and a more current thought process. I think if you do know DV that well it's possible he's taking advantage of that if you're being truthful in 454, I just don't see evidence of that in your posting and I think it's an excuse to cover for scum!DV

[ssbm_Kyouko]

so yeah 468 shows DV is not "agreeable" in this game, rather he's claiming he's already had the same thoughts that others have had before others posted them, in what I think is a clear but subtle attempt to pocket those "others".

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Elements, can you explain why Kyo isn't town here?

until today she hasn't felt invest in this game at all
as a lesser point, she hasn't done any mechanical analysis of the setup either

I be looking too much into it, but I read though this pt from red!kyo and can see this sort of thing going on behind the veil for a red!kyo this game

I have more time for this game now than I did last week - there were several deadlines I had to make, and now this game approaches a deadline and I have/make more time for it.

I also didn't feel that invested because people mostly shot down the main read I had which was that Dragon was being inconsistent early on. I'd sort of resigned myself to playing this game from a "post-failed coalition" standpoint. It's what I did last time I played this setup as well. I butt heads with a SR early on, people didn't listen to me, then out of spite I ended up passing a coalition of 4 TRs plus my all-game SR and we won because I was wrong on my all-game SR.

This morning, I was sitting at the table checking this game on my phone, catching up and gearing up to pull quotes from DV on my PC later to show what I meant in 360, and 361 sort of bolstered my interest in the game. Like yesterday I noticed DV's 353 and I was like "I feel like I keep hearing this from him, that doesn't seem right to me" - that kickstarted my engagement here.

And I haven't done mech here because I've played the setup before a long time ago and I know it (mech spec) doesn't really go anywhere.

I am kinda curious what sort of thing you think is going on behind the veil though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The thing is they're a mindmeld of thoughts

you had already posted in the thread

and theoretical Kyouko!scum has playing on those exact expressed thoughts as a clear route to not-losing

What posts are you talking about? I would think this refers to me scumreading DV but I posted 360 before 361 obviously.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Meanwhile, I think your increase in vigor is indicative of seeing that you have a chance and taking it

This is a reasonable thought to have if you're town but it's not correct. 474 was for Elements but I think it works as a response for this as well.

I'd say you're either snowed by DV or are scum with him and playing up the familiarity you have

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ok well you missed the point of 360 then

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Meanwhile, I think your increase in vigor is indicative of seeing that you have a chance and taking it

This is a reasonable thought to have if you're town but it's not correct. 474 was for Elements but I think it works as a response for this as well.

I'd say you're either snowed by DV or are scum with him and playing up the familiarity you have

The “you’re either snowed by DV or are scum with him” part here appears excessively confident in the scumread of me, and actually not showing the critical thought that I would expect of kyouko as town here, who has shown that they are a critical thinker.

Me/Klick as a scumteam would possibly explain Klick’s increased motivation compared to other scum games (though even then I wouldn’t count on it), but otherwise we are playing very badly as a scumteam because we are trying to set up a coalition with both of us in it, that we are perceived as responsible for, which would obv fail in that world. If the coalition fails then klick, and especially me, become the natural next targets.

I am pretty confident you were intentionally ingratiating yourself to Dragon, Elements, and Appearance. 3 instances of you saying you had the same thought as X before X posted it doesn't seem plausible to me, especially considering how low the activity of this game has been. I think that's plainly scum-motivated. I also need to find 4 people not to heal - you're my top scumread and it looks to me like Klick has a blind spot for you, and behaves a little differently with you, and I think he also lies about behaving differently with you. It also looks like you are treating him at least a little differently than the others because you "agree" with Klick but with others you "already thought" what they posted. Klick has given reasons why I'm seeing his posting around you as different, and has defended your behavior calling you agreeable. I can disprove "agreeable" here but I can see why he would say those things if he's town given his familiarity with you. So I don't know if he's snowed or scum with you, but as long as I need 4 people

not

to heal he's down in those 4 as he could be attached to you.

Idk if I've said this but I think scum getting to be 2-0 inside the coalition is the best case scenario for them (short of no coalition passing). I think the default people will assume if a coalition passes but isn't pure, is that 1 scum is in the coalition and 1 is out. And it then follows that it's easier to find 1 scum in 4 (off wagon) than it is to find 1 in 5 (on wagon). If both scum are on wagon, town will waste efforts hunting for the nonexistent scum off the wagon.

I actually think, and I think most would agree, that Dragon is mostly responsible for the proposed coalition that included you and Klick. I don't think Klick/DV is going through many, if any minds before I brought it up

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: Appearance

I feel like this is the 'less bad' choice over T3 - I'm open to change Appearance for Klick if I need for the deadline, but I don't want to include DV.

That makes my coalition (Kyouko, DE, Elements, Ydrasse, Appearance)

I should have time for a full response to 499 today, but I've been more busy than usual with work this morning. I'll need to look at DV's posts about SRing implosion before he "also thought" with Dragon. I know I didnt check specifically at the time of writing, I was just reading his ISO and might not have noticed it preceding that comment. I did check with the Elements one because he said it happened a long time ago so I was more thorough in looking for evidence of that.

I do think I've been clear that I'm accounting for DV and Klick knowing each other well - that's why I'm not sure if I think Klick is actually your partner or just pocketed/snowed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm around another 6 hours or so during work and can probably pop in once or twice more.after that hit before deadline

[ssbm_Kyouko]

After that but* before deadline

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It might be an appropriate time to pull out my l33t decision-making theory if no one feels super confident

Do we generally agree outside of implosion that DragonEater is just town?

Assuming the latter relates to the former, I'm curious where this goes (because it feels like it's going to mechs that I've missed in the past)

Also ydra posting makes me nervey about Appearance again

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh I was on the phone (like a phone call not phoneposting) and you already got there while I was talking.

Not locking in anything at all is worse than letting one person decide the coalition - if it comes down to deadline I'm fine with sheeping whatever Dragon puts down.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

theoretically I think Klick's point stands just because scum are going to not want to lim themselves obviously so like, of course you're more likely to hit scum by letting town take the reigns.

Here though we don't lose if we get it wrong, only scum stands to lose if they get it "wrong" by not getting themself or their buddy in, so in the end it doesn't matter all that much what we lock in as long as something gets locked in

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HURT: Elements
HEAL: Klick

This should be the same coalition and hammer

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HURT: all
HEAL: ydrasse, dragoneater, klick, appearance, kyouko


I'll do this to be sure though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright guys did we win? I'm town

Fingers crossed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kinda sadge

We should be on-wagon until we find 1 scum and go from there. Regardless if you are reading this and were on or off wagon, the odds of finding scum are better on the wagon than off.

First impressions of gob is that he's overplaying the lack of info on replacing in. I remember feeling good about Elements though.

I think the coalition we got was decent for info as it precludes any lower effort teams in (T3, Implo, Elements). Knowing now at least 2 of these 3 are town they'd be kinda lhf

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The only good thing about the situation is the really funny flavor Prism made. Thanks Prism.

Yeah thanks mom
Or thanks dad, whatever you prefer

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I kinda wanna town read gob for his really awful reads but the thing is he has awful reads as both alignments so I dunno

Anyway back to the actual point - I really wanna trust Klick because he risked not being in the coalition and because I somewhat doubt he would have needed to do the whole "sheep dragon" gambit as scum knowing that I didn't really trust him. On the other hand the gambit probably would have been amazing in a Klick/DV world.

Same thing -ish about Ydra, I don't really get why scum her would vote a coalition like that though obviously there is the (tiny) possibility of being scum with Klick or DV sooo

Idk

At least I know for sure the team isn't DV/implo now.

What do you mean "vote a coalition

like that

" with Ydra?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright game solved for realsies

HEAL: Klick, Appearance, Dragon, Elements, DeasVail

Now I just lurk until DV and Klick figure out this is the correct solve and then we just convince two others.

The kind of rhetoric of this post is something I feel like I could write an essay about. In the last coalition game I played, I was scum and there was a player (Hero at Heart) who was repeatedly giving similar rhetoric of surety about their coalition (nb: both scum were in it). I think d1 in that game was somewhat easy for me to navigate probably in large part due to that kind of rhetoric, where certain people (myself included) were almost viewed as above scrutiny in a way that felt like it radiated out from Hero's reads. Granted, Hero actually did change his reads plenty of times iirc, but ultimately the town deferred to it with the only real objection coming from me (because i softly wanted my scumbuddy off the coalition).

In this case, I think this coalition is massively likely to have scum on it somewhere. And I don't think DragonEater has the same kind of rhetorical sway that Hero did in that game. But it really makes me not like the direction that this day is going right now.

It’s weird to me that you’d use the amount of time since we last played together to question the reliability of my read on you and then make an unsolicited comment on my scumplay (particularly since 5-10 years ago I was probably better known for strong town play than strong scum play).

The comment on scumplay is more a continuation of 155 than it is of 156

I should note that Hero at Heart is an alt of Dragon

wait like this DragonEater70?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I kinda wanna town read gob for his really awful reads but the thing is he has awful reads as both alignments so I dunno

Anyway back to the actual point - I really wanna trust Klick because he risked not being in the coalition and because I somewhat doubt he would have needed to do the whole "sheep dragon" gambit as scum knowing that I didn't really trust him. On the other hand the gambit probably would have been amazing in a Klick/DV world.

Same thing -ish about Ydra, I don't really get why scum her would vote a coalition like that though obviously there is the (tiny) possibility of being scum with Klick or DV sooo

Idk

At least I know for sure the team isn't DV/implo now.

What do you mean "vote a coalition

like that

" with Ydra?

Ydra voted a coalition that didn't include her and I thought that was pretty clearing, though of course if she was scum with Klick or something it wouldn't be really clearing. Idk I'm still thinking in implosion = scum terms.

Oh you mean like before the final coalition was locked in, I see

[ssbm_Kyouko]

tbh i have opposing views with kyuoko on gob and t3 on dragon.
in that, gob did genuinely feel like he had no idea what was going on and scum might've checked with their buddies first.
and for dragon, he seems to actually have a somewhat good grasp of the game. he changes his reads due to apprehension but i don't know if i'd call that flailing.

This is too trusting of gob's entrance

[ssbm_Kyouko]

idk, Appearance is who I was feeling the least confident in of my 5 prior to switching to Dragon's coalition. I kinda feel like his reads have been a little too easy. I wish DV were in instead of Klick tbh, would make this day a lot easier.

VOTE: Appearance

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I mean I want to lim you more than anyone on the coalition

[ssbm_Kyouko]

tho the part on dv is weird.
as we wouldn't have known if the other coalition would've passed or not.

I wasn't thinking about whether it would have passed, I was thinking I really just want to vote DV right now but it doesn't make sense to start outside the coalition since we

know

there's at least 1 scum in the coalition. So those 2 thoughts together = "i wish DV were in the coalition" - "instead of Klick" comes because I associate the two together but DV is the one I individually SR and Klick feels like he could be getting snowed due to his familiarity with DV. So I'd much rather go DV first in a regular mountainous game with no coalition info

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i think it's best for the game if i just fully don't engage with dragon.

tbh it's not that hard to misread u.
imho u are pretty much someone who i'd say is generally hard to read.

I accept that, it's just the way he's gone about it that's led to how I feel about everything.

Honestly it's also entirely possible that people are just like,

actively

bad at reading me right now. I was universally townread in coalition, I was pretty widely scumread or at least near the bottom of the pile in Toriel's patience, and now there's this game.

ISOing kyouko. There's something about her play that feels generally similar to her play in Toriel's patience (we were both town, but she did replace in late). I didn't really read her that closely in that game iirc, I think I was mostly relying on a read on her predecessor but looking a little at her play in both games her approach to argumentation and like, the cadence of her making points feels somewhat similar. I don't think it's tangible enough to really be the basis for a read though and I have definitely played with her other times but don't really remember them.

Her wanting both DV and Klick off of the coalition could be a way for her to try for a single scum coalition if she's scum with DV (which I don't think is particularly likely) or Klick (even less likely). Otherwise, if there's already scum on the coalition, her play seems sort of overly earnest for scum who would be fighting to join a coalition that already has scum. That includes the Elements slot even though it wound up off coalition. The only other slot is T3 who she could be scum with. I do like her post (452) on T3 though. I think the conclusion of "he might be scum with implo but is otherwise maybe townish but needs to do more stuff" is sort of an unnecessarily nuanced take for scum to make with either alignment from T3. If T3 is town and she's scum then she's doing this weird tact of tying these two widely scumread town slots together but also not committing to it that I don't think has a lot of utility as scum, and if they're both scum then the whole post is just weirdly conspicuous of a post for scum to make about their scumbuddy in that situation.

I feel like her play as a whole is pretty consistent with town who early on was trying to find bits of the game to stick on to (like the elements heal) and then got more time and started to kick into gear as the game was getting going. I do agree with Dragon that her Appearance vote is bad, it feels somewhat overjustified.

I would think it would seem more like I'm scum with Klick than DV if you're taking this viewpoint that I wanted them both off the coalition because I only wanted 1 scum (myself) on the coalition and wanted to make a show of getting my partner off of it. Especially given I've cased DV much harder and had leniency with Klick, considering that he may be snowed by DV. Also with me wanting to lim DV before Klick, that's like the classic "my partner could be scum with X (X is actually town), but isn't as scummy as X so I want to flip X first" I feel like this is an unlikely conclusion given the evidence, how did you come to it?

As far as this being overjustified

idk, Appearance is who I was feeling the least confident in of my 5 prior to switching to Dragon's coalition. I kinda feel like his reads have been a little too easy. I wish DV were in instead of Klick tbh, would make this day a lot easier.

VOTE: Appearance

I was really tired and had a slightly stressful situation at my almost-always-stress-free job yesterday. I felt lost as to what to do because my tired brain just wanted to vote DV, and that's how it came out. There's at least 1 scum on this coalition we need to find before eliminating anyone on the outside.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm also kind of hoping Klick or like, maybe DV or kyouko (if they're town) will find me as town at some point because they're the only slots that it feels appealing to work with right now and I feel like i need help to make headway right now

I don't know if I've ever correctly read you with any amount of confidence in my own work. I just don't get how to do it and I rely on sheeping TRs to read you usually. I don't think we've played

that many

games together but there've certainly been a fair few over the years

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i just haven't... felt like posting. i've been procrastinating on doing a lot of things the past few days and this is an unfortunate victim of it.

i live vaguely in a world i think rn where it's like... gob... appearance...??? maybe??? as the wolf team. i'm unsure. i haven't sifted through the last few pages much yet but i saw my name and it was shiny to my eyes

I read this and felt like it reminded me of Radio Buzz for a minute - like the tone matches really well and I thought it was scummy, but then I remembered thinking it was scummy in Radio Buzz also and double checked and sure enough that was a town game - I just tend to scumread this kind of post from you because I think I'd seen you AtE over effort levels specifically, as scum, prior to Radio Buzz. But I think there's a distinction to be made and this feels like the town you.

Like when you're scum it doesn't look as much like AtE even though it makes me feel more AtE'ed, if that makes sense. As town it looks like AtE even though it's not really and it's just how you talk about your feelings. I think what I'm getting at is maybe that you force it a little more as scum but that you're good at it so even though you're fudging it a little it comes off more pure when you're scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Kyo

I'm good with this

VOTE: Dragon

Nah, I actually really dislike his above post.

Well this looks towny.

Dragon, why vote Kyouko?

This is a scummy post from dunnstral actuslly.


T3 yfrasse seem good. implo will need to go some point soon. maybr dunn too

Dunn replaced Ydrasse

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Kyo

I'm good with this

VOTE: Dragon

Nah, I actually really dislike his above post.

Well this looks towny.

Dragon, why vote Kyouko?

Disagree on T3. Voting and changing vote is pretty standard for scum.

I'm voting Kyo because I had the weakest TR on her before the coalition locked in, and also because voting Appearance reeks of "let's just vote an LHF today" in a scummy way.

Excuse me? What gives you that idea?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You're voting me because I was your weakest TR. You remember my weakest TR don't you?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE:
Not sure this POE is as clear cut as I thought

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Somehow this isn't locked already. Had to take a step back from Mafia recently but I kept tabs on some games when I could. Good game everyone