Open 905: Pick Your Power X/Y S/S [game over!]

[davesaz]

VOTE: yessiree

[davesaz]

I think reading too much into the draft would be a mistake. You have to go pretty deep into my history, given it's been ages since I played this (modded it a lot), but it will be clear I've always had this position.

[davesaz]

I can see a headache coming in this game from trying to read words that don't fit my language map.

[davesaz]

I think reading too much into the draft would be a mistake. You have to go pretty deep into my history, given it's been ages since I played this (modded it a lot), but it will be clear I've always had this position.

It is of the opinion that this is a very defensive post that doesn't seem to have a prediction for how on guard it is. Yes, can you explain to it why you felt the need to bring up and defend yourself from an attack that hasn't even been levied?

Further, it thinks that the major element of this game is draft speculation and reading into player mentality for the choices that are made. Why shut that down?

There is a difference between using draft information as just information, and using it to predict alignments or team composition in the absence of other more important things like the actual posts and votes in the game. In prior games of this family of setups, I have seen players say things like "x and y can't possibly be scum together because they picked the same number", where in fact scum who are very confident in their discussion abilities might actually choose the same number specifically to be ruled out as teammates. Separately, the concept that x and y are more likely to be s/t than t/t picking the same number is also dangerous, as it is no more or less likely that scum would want to keep a PR out of town's hands than it is that two town really want a PR.

So I strongly recommend thinking first about what people say. That doesn't mean that the draft numbers should be ignored, I just don't think they're the first or only way to sort people.

[davesaz]

aren't u just gonna work of mechanics anyways davesaz

Well, there is a reason I sign up for this setup the moment it shows up in the queue.

[davesaz]

<checks terminology> Isn't it a lodge?

[davesaz]

Can you show an example of two mafia picking the same draft number in a previous version of this setup?

The point is that they could, not that they will. Whether they have or not is immaterial, gambler's fallacy.

[davesaz]

I can see a headache coming in this game from trying to read words that don't fit my language map.

It has two concerns with this post, both stemming from an assumption this is directed at it and it's post talking about you.

Firstly, it wants to allow for others to understand it and how it speaks. If it is not being understood, that is concerning for it. It can try its best to help you, but it speaks as it is because it is who it is.

Secondly, it wonders, perhaps from a place of deeper paranoia, if this isn't intended to discredit what we've said or choose not to engage with our concerns with you. It feels like you could likely erase those concerns by answering our questions we directed towards you, but for the moment we are a little... put off by this.

I had a similar moment before remembering that's kind of just how dave speaks, I don't think 1) he intended to discredit there, 2) he's naive enough to assume that post would discredit it

74 was not influenced or prompted by any specific previous post.

[davesaz]

Can you show an example of two mafia picking the same draft number in a previous version of this setup?

The point is that they could, not that they will. Whether they have or not is immaterial, gambler's fallacy.

This is a game of "could"s, though. Determining what is more likely and staking your moves on that, then adapting with new information is the entire methodology of the game.

Simply stating that because somehting "could" happen that we shouldn't act upon the idea that it is unlikely and attempt to solve with a mentality in mind feels reductive and dismissive, to it.

It thinks there is a good line of reasoning and ability to choose where to look first in the logic it has presented. It even stated that it wasn't willing to say it was a certainty, and yet here we are discussing in a circle about "if something IS possible then we should consider both worlds" instead of hedging and using logic to try and eliminate worlds until proven otherwise.

Eliminating people from consideration as possible scum without evidence from their posting and votes (and before mechanical results but that comes later) is one of the worst things town can do.
Not sure why it's focusing on 17 when it didn't even say anything until 40, care to explain that aspect of the points it's making?

[davesaz]

So much spam, from former listmods even
I'm not against fun on principle, but the scrolling to get to real stuff...

[davesaz]

17 was in response to gob seeming to go all-in on using the draft numbers to solve the game on that page.
Nothing at all to do with Oblivion's followup question.
Surprised I have to mention this at all, it seems extremely obvious to me what I mean.

[davesaz]

I got the role I wanted YAAY

It will sound slightly hypocritical, but this plays right into my RVS vote so I have to ask...
An evil role, right? Who picks 666?

[davesaz]

I unfairly projected some old baggage at PP.
It's very much an equal opportunity spamfest.

[davesaz]

oh yay, wagons

VOTE: brian skies

what was this for? They seem good to me

you've quoted the answer

I dont get it. Care to explain it to me?

I thought it was pretty clear.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Brian Skies
Giving a reason would defeat the purpose. I'll answer later if you really need to ask.

[davesaz]

D1 the answer is always wagons

yup

[davesaz]

Penguin and may can be scum.

[davesaz]

Brian kinda felt like he needed more scumn reads than he has so then the o-ring read is overstated and reachy instead of just "hi folks I'm flailing today"

i'm not sureeee

i don't think i natively agree with brian's o-ring read but there's such a difference between

"this is a soulread sorry gl"
and
"this is an idiosyncratic read which is hard to articulate but i'm doing people words in the hope someone else picks it up"

and brian's o-ring read felt closer to the second to me? it feels like something Brian wants people to connect to?

I saw that and thought it seemed a little forced. I thought that Oblivion's posts that Brian referred to had decent thoughts behind them, despite being incorrect with respect to what I was actually doing.

[davesaz]

orange juice

[davesaz]

It had a very hard day yesterday, and it has now fallen ill. It is reading along as the game goes to ensure it remains caught up, so it will not fall behind. To assist it, can players provide it things that they want its take on or ask it questions by quoting this post so it can receive notifications to respond to when it has energy again?

It would be very grateful, friends.

Any thoughts on the very spread out vote count, with many people voting players who are virtually certain to have a PR?

[davesaz]

Any thoughts on the very spread out vote count, with many people voting players who are virtually certain to have a PR?

rephrased: "can you believe there are two people voting me?"

You had a vote too at the time I mentioned it, and there were a total of 5 votes within the 5 most likely. So nope.

[davesaz]

I'm mixed handed -- some left, some right, some both. It used to drive some of my teachers nuts and leave others in wonder.

[davesaz]

Big difference between day 1 and later days.

[davesaz]

Wrong.

He's saying we shouldn't be removing people from elimination consideration without sufficient evidence to back it up. In the second post, he is basically refuting the idea of deciding who to or not to vote based on draft information alone.

In the first vote, he almost flips this stance by stating that likelihood of PR matters.

The PR or not PR always matters. In this game we have extra information that allows us to not run up a bunch of people and get their claims prematurely, thus depriving scum of the best way of deciding which of the expected PRs is the highest priority to kill.

[davesaz]

I always make the exact same arguments every game of this setup or its ilk, regardless of my position in the draft. I even argued against taking me out of the scum pool when I was town and happened to double (or maybe it was triple).

[davesaz]

Nary a clue what either of those things means.

I'm solving by giving mechanics a chance to happen. If there is a better choice on that half of the list I'm quite willing to listen.

[davesaz]

Nary a clue what either of those things means.

I'm solving by giving mechanics a chance to happen. If there is a better choice on that half of the list I'm quite willing to listen.

Dave, you are a reasoning person, what do you think of gob's posting?

I didn't actually count and do a ratio, but seems to be about 10% signal 90% noise. That's being generous and counting anything remotely game related.
I think it's lower than typical for gob.

[davesaz]

Pavowski I expect you to afk but I expect you to be like at least a little disappointed with the game trajectory if you share my alignment

Esp since you don't seem to think duck is a boring free red flip which I'm tempted to think right now

v/la

Saturday pm and all of Sunday

I don't think I've posted a single thing about the duck aside from noting it's interesting he voted me but was also willing to vote with me.

But I will cop to being a little disengaged

u still haven't explained why this struck u as interesting honestly I think that's just exactly how my mind works

I mean I think saying "yeah I'll vote you because I think you're scum, but I'm also willing to vote the person you're voting" feels at least a little contradictory

Granted it's d1 and reads can change on a dime, but yeah, I found that interesting

so?

this feels like half a thought. what does it tell u about my alignment

Dann's vote and post led me to this.

I think the real kicker is that Pavowski makes 808 about a so-called inconsistency, but that "vote" is just a RVS which says it's a real vote for joke value.

[davesaz]

I really do not like the compesition of the worst wagon .

the worst [4]:
Jake The Wolfie, May, PenguinPower, Firebringer

Unironicalyl I think we lim one of these people. I lean FB and PP.

Do you TR the worst?

[davesaz]

I wish May (and others, just picking a recent example) would learn how to use the enter key and put more than one thought in a post, especially when it's a thought about the exact same topic.
I'd have to read (a lot) to know if it's scummy, but it's definitely making scumhunting harder and that's anti-town at a minimum and possibly even scummy.

[davesaz]

VOTE: the worst

Re: pure/impure talk -- I generally tend toward can't really tell at less than E-2

[davesaz]

I could see gob as scum here. Sooner or later even a broken clock is right.

[davesaz]

dave i kinda expected a vote on pavowski to follow 863

That might be a good idea in a different setup.

[davesaz]

Sometimes less than e-1 wagons claim. If scum claim something good that is held by town then they get the town to claim too and probably a 1v1. All d1 outcomes of any claim are bad for town mechanically. It's always best to d1 lim outside the top 5 or 6 in this setup aside from the rare but possible case that all 3 scum are that high.

[davesaz]

My other position is that you don't permanently ignore anyone based on numbers alone. These positions are provable.

[davesaz]

It's long term information. Like if / when I get killed...

[davesaz]

Getting scum early can help, I can't argue with that. But it's not the panacea that it's made out to be.

I've had several recent town losses where scum was eliminated d1 and it didn't help in the slightest. And more town losses than I can count where the only PR left that was capable of actually getting a guilty was forced to claim prematurely, NK'd, and scum skated to a win.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Brian Skies

Did you read its take? Do you disagree with it?

It speaks with confusing language that was not considered when the vote was cast. After more carefully rereading it, I can confirm that I have no access to its' privileged information, and thus can only go by what it states.

I will say that Dave is not on my radar at the moment.

Did you not get what Brian was saying in his post? That Dave contradicted himself with his different takes, depending upon what benefitted him at the moment?

Those two positions are compatible, if it understands that the desire to lim outside the top of the list is a d1 strategy, while the desire to not permanently ignore slots is a whole game strategy.

[davesaz]

i asked because without the context of dave's approach to the role list, it very much looks like support for the recently growing pavowski wagon

idk it's a little strange to me to dump a comment like that but also not really show concern over the fact that the wagon is growing around those suspicions at the same time if you truly believe such a wagon is anti-town

Perhaps it would help if I mentioned that I made the comment before re-checking the list.

[davesaz]

For example, the fact that you are still saying it wanted to "permanently ignore slots" by this point after it has explained itself several times by this point makes it believe that you are not acting in good faith, and rather trying to continue that narrative for your own benefit.

My posts on this subject are strictly about game theory and strategy. They seem self serving because I'm at the top of the draft, but I have made the exact same two points in every game of this setup that I have played, regardless of my alignment or position in the draft.

[davesaz]

i don't think anyone is sussing you for the strategy dave, but an inconsistent attitude towards the strategy

Any inconsistency is in the eye of the reader, perhaps interpreting what I'm saying relative to their position.

[davesaz]

dave what’s the point of being like “yeah look at how sus pavowski is” if you never intend to vote there or support a wagon there today

It's long term information. Like if / when I get killed...

Dave do you think pav/me/? is a possible solve, like do you see us as aligned, or just pushing two separate reads for now?

this is still kinda bouncing around in my head dave jw where ur coming from

I don't think I've said I SR you.

[davesaz]

I can't read May, primarily because it's too much effort to find the signal.

[davesaz]

A place to begin, but if a player is transparently the most scummy player in the lobby... it's not right to just allow that player to thrive unchecked.

Is it aware that a secondary goal of a town PR is to live long enough to be able to give results? If the scum think someone can be mislimmed, perhaps they won't be killed.

[davesaz]

It left out the worst, who is on the same level as Brian Skies and also the top wagon currently. And who I'm voting, unless I've forgotten about a vote change.

[davesaz]

Rephrase, the first player who needs someone else to not get a pick in order to have a chance.

[davesaz]

The spoiler has rough hand calculations for the 1st 9 players chance of getting their pick assuming at most one double. (I knew this instinctively but wanted to write it out to check it)
The actual odds are higher than this. There is probably a formula, and I could write a program to do it, but envelope calculation is enough to show it's higher than intuition might say.

Spoiler: odds of getting a pick

p1 : 100%
p2 : 7/8 = 87.5%
p3 : 7/8*6/8 + 1/8*7/8 or .875*.75 + .125*.875 .65625+.109375 76.6%
p4 = .766 * 5/8 + .234*6/8 = .479 + .176 65.5%
p5 = .655 * 4/8 + ,345 * 5/8 = .328+.215 = 54.3%
p6 = .543 * 3/8 + .457 + 4/8 = .204+.228 = 43.2%
p7 = .432 * 2/8 + .568 * 3/8 = .108+.213 = 39.3%
p8 = .393 * 1/8 + .607 * 2/8 = .049+.152 = 20.1%
p9 = .799 * 1/8 = 10%

Minimum

odds 1st 8 players 100%, 87.5%, 76.6%, 65.5%, 54.3%, 43.2%, 39.3%, 20.1%, 10%
Actual odds are higher for players 3rd+, as this calculation only accounts for a single doubled choice.

[davesaz]

I think I'd put June in the same broad category as Pavowski. Thoughts about June?

[davesaz]

I don't get the feeling that yessiree is looking for scum.

[davesaz]

I think I'd put June in the same broad category as Pavowski. Thoughts about June?

I think June puts her phone away from this game and single-handedly fights back an entire horse of demons, feels it vibrate, checks and sees a prod message from datisi

in other words my gut tells me she's busy with real world things, I don't really think she's actively concerning (if I had to guess I'd call her musings 5% town), she's a high draft placement, I'm not all that interested in going there

wait if June is on the table for you why is Pav not

She's not. M6 point is why isn't her posting or lack of posting equally a concern whether limmable or not.

[davesaz]

I don't get the feeling that yessiree is looking for scum.

What makes you say this?

Took a quick look and didn't see it in the parts I looked at.

[davesaz]

I noticed gob doing stuff in a recent game (compared to other games where he wasn't doing stuff) but don't remember what that meant about alignment.
I guess I should go review that.

[davesaz]

It was the game where you were a mason.

Spoiler: other game quote

Gob gave reasons for things

In complete fairness, I

might

have seen this before. I just have this image that this never happens, so it's worth noting.

guess that image can be wiped

[davesaz]

VOTE: NotAScum
On my phone so won't write a book rn but here's a poke to stop trying to get by without trying.

[davesaz]

Have you read anything?

[davesaz]

Worsts jam w Jake was kinda scummy

I felt the opposite. What didn't you like about it?

[davesaz]

Even thought it is totally on the wrong track, I don't think it's worth the effort right now.

[davesaz]

who dafuq picks rolecop as town

Did you get some sour grapes?

[davesaz]

Well well well.

i think we lim whoever bever voted NAS today

Agree with Firebringer, and then there are these too.

VOTE: gob

[davesaz]

Actually ig yessiree has me & brian as clear in his vibe solve now that's kinda fun

nope, that read is void now since that whole read list was hinging on scum picking rolecop

You made your reads based on scum picking a specific role?

[davesaz]

VOTE: pavowski

Can't really find a reason for this vote, please explain.

[davesaz]

If NAS voted a partner, here are the candidates.
NotAScum {'PenguinPower': 1, 'Oblivion': 1, 'gob': 1}

[davesaz]

VOTE: pavowski

Can't really find a reason for this vote, please explain.

Nah. You should be able to make a correct assumption.

lol the vote count is literally right above that post.

The town thing to do would be to explain.

[davesaz]

Tied wagons between scum and unknown, and you put unknown in the lead. How did you pick which otherwise equal wagon to vote?

[davesaz]

Potentially hilarious tinfoil: scum picked 1,2,3 and got shut out from the top of the draft because town picked all 3 of those numbers too.
It's weakly backed up by a couple potential bussers and a potential anti-busser being in those numbers.

[davesaz]

I thought Pavowski might be interesting, but not really.

[davesaz]

Known information

PenguinPower	4	Town Ascetic Cop
davesaz	6
Ydrasse June	10	Town Rolecop
Pavowski	11
gob	55	Mafia 2-shot PGO
May	98
yessiree	666
Jake The Wolfie	628318530717958
Firebringer	1
Oblivion	1
Dannflor Dunnstral	2
NotAScum	2	Mafia 1-shot Watcher
the worst	3
Brian Skies	3	Possible clear?

Mafia choosing informed over multitasking indicates they didn't expect to get roles, or at least thought it was more likely that a good fakeclaim would be more important than being able to act.
My opinion, Firebringer, Dannflor, and the worst are the best fits for wanting to be able to fakeclaim based on meta. With a caveat that I don't really know May, and have no history of correctly reading yessiree.

Self meta that's obviously true but I know there is likely to be at least one complaint about, I'm basically incapable of a convincing fakeclaim, because I can't lie very well.

[davesaz]

I'd recommend some unvotes.

[davesaz]

I thought Pavowski might be interesting, but not really.

result crumb from n1

[davesaz]

If we have a doc it's probably auto.

[davesaz]

I've only ever played pokemon go. The card game was huge when I was early 30s and my neighbor's kid was 7.

[davesaz]

If it got an extra PM it should follow the link and go to the bottom.
If it didn't get an extra PM I'll be very interested to hear that.

[davesaz]

I haven't said which role, and think it's best to hold that for a bit in case we don't lim scum and the uncertainty leaves them a hard decision on who to kill.
It might come out anyway, we'll see what happens.

[davesaz]

n1 tracker does not compel me to unvote

By itself it wouldn't be enough to bother claiming.
I actually double checked Pavowski n2 because by the numbers Pavowski fit the medium of a low-medium-high set of numbers.
If I were scum, clearing a 2nd player by nudging one of the neighbors toward realizing it can clear someone would be a fairly bad move, no?
So either gob is medium and 3rd scum is an even higher number, or scum did low,low,medium/high.

[davesaz]

PenguinPower	4	Town Ascetic Cop
davesaz	6	neighborized, tracker
Ydrasse June	10	Town Rolecop
Pavowski	11	inno, tracked n2
gob	55	Mafia 2-shot PGO
May	98
yessiree	666
Jake The Wolfie	628318530717958	neighborizer, cleared by acting n2
Firebringer	1
Oblivion	1	neighborized
Dannflor Dunnstral	2
NotAScum	2	Mafia 1-shot Watcher
the worst	3
Brian Skies	3	crumbed clear by Penguin?

[davesaz]

1 maf vs 2 full clears, 1 crumbed clear, and 1 who would be throwing if scum. And more available if there happens to be a n2 rb clear or a doc.

[davesaz]

Our kitten tried to play-kill our dog. Problem was the dog is a chihuahua and was about 2 pounds at the time, and the almost-grown kitten might have pulled it off if we hadn't been right there.

[davesaz]

crap, correcting spelling made me miss 2500

[davesaz]

I keep telling myself to allow a few people to SR me when I have a role, and to hold off reacting to votes on clears.
By the next game that I actually have a role, I forget.

Happy to have actually rolled something, I've played this setup a lot and feel like I usually end up a VT.