Open 720: NOIR (GAME OVER)

[Sando]

p.edit the strat is good because it didn't cost anything, and it had a potential pay off. Are you insinuating that you now have to scum read more making that play, and THAT is why it is a bad play? Because that logic is quite circular.

I'm saying you potentially hurt towns TR reads, on both you and duckling, and you potentially drew attention to a softclaim. All to do something that has no benefit to town.

[Sando]

Uh, in my experience people don't PR hunt for shit and scum tend to target widely townread people or those with coherent viewpoints that keep the town from turning into poop.

Well Duckling was at best 3rd most TR'd person, you still say it's not a soft claim, leaving the idea that duckling was coherent with his reads and keeping town from turning to poop.

So we should look into his reads more for scum, yes?

[Sando]

I think Sando is criticising your strategy rather than calling you scummy for it

Yayaya.

Also saying that we've identified 3 reasons for duckling dying:
1 - He was strongly TRd
2 - He softclaimed
3 - His reads and coordination abilities were strong

I'm positing that 1 isn't particularly true, and JJ is saying that 2 isn't true, to me that leaves 3. That should imply we look into what he was looking at D1 and start pulling things out, but no-one seems keen to do that...which yes I find interesting.

[Sando]

I understand that, completely. It's still stretchy as fuck. The argument is disingenuous and I'm pointing that out.

The real scum motivation I'm alluding to is that if duckling was killed to stop his reads and coordination, scum don't want those reads read into. The best way I can see to discourage that would be to present a potential soft-claim, which to be honest, worked, no-one looked into his reads post your soft-claim statement.

My whole talk about why you shouldn't try to protect a PR by hurting his TRness is just annoyance from me.

[Sando]

Yeah I saw it, and I've been tossing this one around in my head for a while, but it's still stuck there.

a) If scum thought it was a slip, they killed him for it and Oxy is right, his reads are fairly meaningless.
b) If scum thought his reads were dangerous and killed him for that, then they got lucky and hit the doctor, and the theory is Oxy saw that and went digging and came up with a valid reason for town NOT to look into the reads.

(b) just seems...convoluted, it doesn't strike me as a reasonable conclusion to come to. I'm left with a combination, he's relatively TRd and he's got ok reads and they saw the little slip and figured he was as good a shot as anyone. I'm not convinced either which way on scum motivation for doing what Oxy did in that case.

[Sando]

4) WIFOM kill.

Seems unlikely, but it'd make Oxy town imo.

[Sando]

so ceejay is L2 now?

Pint, Oxy, Quick, mutant for the 4? We probs need some VCs going here, but yeah I think you're right. Also N_M not on the wagon so it's basically L-1.

[Sando]

How do you know NM isn't Scum?

Wat? I don't? Wait, do I? No, I'm pretty sure I don't. What's this got to do with the price of eggs?

[Sando]

VOTE: ceejay

This is a bad lynch

OMGUS.

Did CJ give a read on NM? Might look at that later.

This is fairly amusing.

So Mom on CJ needs a reread tomorrow, the whole he's ok, zomg surprise I SR him, holy fuck guys we're NOT killing CJ thing from Mom is...odd.

[Sando]

Wait so no kill says that scum either no-killed or they targeted the hider with their kill. The only reason to no-kill is to setup the hider to out themselves by thinking that scum now know who they are.

So either scum know who the hider is and we may as well get the info now. Or scum just submitted no-kill to make us think that and get the hider out in the open.

[Sando]

I think we're gonna twist ourselves in knots if we try to help the hider stay hidden, I think it's probably best for them to out themselves now. I'd appreciate 24 hours to work it through in my mind and find a way that staying hidden helps, but I don't like my chances.

[Sando]

Unless someone has a good reason for the hider not to out, I think they should.

The only advantage that is popping up in my mind is that leaving the hider alive without directing their hide leaves the scum forced to "waste" their jail on them, plus if they fail to jail them then we know scum was lying. I'm not seeing any reason not to have the hider out in that, but then I've only thought about this for 5 mins, and I don't need hider info absolutely now, so I think we wait a little bit before doing it, doesn't cost us anything.

[Sando]

Oh and by the way, scum probably knows who the real vig is now since no one died today, so they must've jailkept him/her

Or they chose tracker.

[Sando]

Shouldn't rule out tracker but I can't imagine not taking vig with fuckin NM in the game

With pintu saying he was jailed N1 then vig had N1 free and clear to kill NM and chose not to, then N2 actually did get jailed... That stretches my credulity.

[Sando]

We're at 10, an even number, meaning we have a "free" loss before mylo. That basically means that the hider death is inbuilt into our game, so there's no real loss to town in terms of numbers from the hider dying in terms of our time-until-engamed. I guess what I'm getting at is that hider shouldn't worry themselves with being the extra death when their hiding spot gets shot, and should hide-hunt per usual, and that not hiding and faking out the scum NK doesn't really accomplish much.

[Sando]

Okay. I've done a lot of reading since last night

These are the people I don't think I ever want to lynch:
Pintu, Oxy, Quick, Sando

These are the deep scum that I lose to:
Momomen, Fitz

And this is the lynch order I'm at right now

NM/Mutant -> JJ -> Alonzo

I'm ok with most of that, but I think we do JJ last, I have some thoughts percolating and it seems like people are pretty intent on this so I wanted to put that out there.

Also we're saying mutant/NM are independently scummy of each other? I'm confused as to what we're suggesting about NM based on Mutants flip, or don't we care and we think we've got 3 scum in the 4?

Sorry for lack of involvement today, work has decided to be a biatch, and I'm running on very little sleep and not much caffeine yet this morning. Should calm down in 48 hours or so.

[Sando]

actually, I believe more people are calling NM scum than are calling mutant scum

NM is a significantly safer safe-haven for people to vote-park and still look like they're contributing at this point.

What's mutant at right now, anyone know?

[Sando]

You can't PoE based on confirmed Town, you can only sheep them and have the confirmed Town Scumhunt based on people's stances/reactions. That is what is ideal.

Both of the conf!town are voting mutant, so good sheeping there.

[Sando]

Both of the conf!town are voting mutant, so good sheeping there.

Being conf!town doesn't make them right. It just lets us know they aren't pushing from a scum agenda. I suppose, at the very least, with every misslynch that the confirmed townies are on the more obvious the scum become. I'd prefer that misslynch not being me though if that's not too much to ask.

That was directed at Quick who is saying sheeping the conf!town is the best play.

[Sando]

Well, I got a better idea: I could target Not_Mafia today; if he's town, scum will shoot him and both him and me will die, but that would be good since Not_Mafia being alive is bad for town. If he's scum, I'll die and he won't (or scum will jailkeep me) so he will be conf!scum in one case and in the other case scum either he is scum or scumteam jailkept me to make us believe he's scum (this would be the worst case scenario, but I would live another day as conf!town)

Scum are more likely to jail you if NM is town than if he's scum, unless NM is himself the jailer. We've basically gamesolved this and I think him being Jailer is their only hope.

If you assume 2 conf!town and 3 town in Sando, Quick and MOM, then you're left with 5 others. Within that 5 there'd be 3 scum and they need us to mislynch twice. You can see via that math that scum simply cannot shoot within the 5 since even if it kills the hider, they're leaving us 4 people with 3 scum in it and requiring 2 mislynches.

If NM is town then he's the easiest mislynch target in there. They can't let you clear him, and they can't kill him, so their only option is to block you. If NM is scum but not the jailer then they can block you but they're leaving a tracker up and once we hit the jailer then you'll conf!scum NM. If NM is the jailer they keep jailing you and we never hit the jailer, so we have to deal with that.

So,

assuming we're happy with the 5 scumpossibles being Alonzo, mutant, NM, JJ and Fitz

, then I think we:
Lynch mutant
Hide behind NM
Track NM

NM being out Jailer is the danger point, if they jail hider but jailer isn't NM then we just keep looking for the jailer to get a clear/confirm on NM. If NM is jailer scums only hope is to shoot the tracker. I'd expect that if NM is not the jailer, they simply let you conf!scum him and hunt the tracker hardcore.

Please note, all of this requires you to be fine with the bolded part, otherwise it doesn't work and should be ignored. If you think of those 5 there's definite town then that's not a big deal, but if you think of the town there's possible scum then yeah, this doesn't work.

[Sando]

and LOL at hider saying who they hide behind. That's dumb. If they want to do that they should give multiple people they are hiding behind because if they just give one, then that's two Town for the price of one.

Don't LOL at things you don't understand, especially when it's been explained clearly and you can't find the intellect to actually articulate a counter argument other than "that's dumb".

[Sando]

Correct, but we don't need to target the Tracker. They can do their own thing and claim if they get something useful.

The tracker is to deal with NM being the Jailer, which is I think the only way out of this for scum I think. If he's a goon but scum keep jailing hider, we lynch until we find the jailer and then get a conf one way or the other on NM that night. If he's the jailer then he can keep that up indefinitely and we never get a confirmation on NM and we're by definition left with NM vs someone else with no confirmation either way.

[Sando]

Sure. Does hider die if they hide behind the Town that is killed?

Yep, I know where you're going, and before you say it, read what I've said and you can work out for yourself why it's fine for them both to die.

[Sando]

Ok only quick doesn't understand, but that's no surprise and probably unable to be rectified in this lifetime so:

Intent to give NM the lolhammer on mutant.

BTW if mutant claims tracker don't CC please real tracker and we simply lynch within alonzo/JJ/Fitz.

[Sando]

No matter who is lynched today, can we lynch Quick tomorrow?

no

What if we 100% gamesolve and have a mislynch in hand, can we do it then? Pretty please?

[Sando]

Blah blah, assuming it has to do with having an even number of players. Not convinced by that. Why kill Town when we don't have to?

You're not convinced by math? MD pretty sure he's taking a swipe at you, you gonna take that?

10 alive 3 scum, mislynch and NK down to 8 alive 3 scum, mislynch and NK down to 6 alive 3 scum, town loses with 2 mislynches.
10 alive 3 scum, mislynch and NK and hider dead, 7 alive 3 scum, mislynch and NK down to 5 alive 3 scum, town loses with 2 mislynches.

[Sando]

Why kill Town when we don't have to?

In the case of you:


In the case of the hider, because it makes no difference to the number of days we get or mislynches we can do, and potentially helps us gamesolve. Ie, it's playing to our wincon, pro-town, townie...etc.

[Sando]

and LOL at hider saying who they hide behind. That's dumb. If they want to do that they should give multiple people they are hiding behind because if they just give one, then that's two Town for the price of one.

Don't LOL at things you don't understand, especially when it's been explained clearly and you can't find the intellect to actually articulate a counter argument other than "that's dumb".

Sure. Does hider die if they hide behind the Town that is killed?

Geez Louise

Do you see what I have to deal with? It's been like this since Day1!

[Sando]

VOTE: Alonzo

[Sando]

Why is there so much resistance to a NM lynch @Sando, @jj.

Cause I have zero read on him and we're using the hider to reduce our risk. If you'd like to propose an alternate plan that is more than "LOL THAT'S DUMB" then I'm all ears, till then I'm following my plan.

[Sando]

Before changing to any wagon, can we wait to see if someone counterclaims? I still don't believe mutant

I've already told the tracker not to CC, but feel free to articulate why it's best to get a CC right now.

[Sando]

Where?

I think the CC would be optimal now because if mutant is indeed scum, the scumteam should have bussed him long time ago. I've been thinking he's the jailkeeper since forever

BTW if mutant claims tracker don't CC please real tracker and we simply lynch within alonzo/JJ/Fitz.

Basically because I still want the real tracker, if it's not Mutant, to track NM. Scum need the jail on hider tonight unless NM is a goon and they're happy to let him die, and so they'll simply kill mutant overnight.

[Sando]

If we mislynch here, we go to 8 player mylo or 7 player lylo.

Do we want to be dealing with alive!mutant and alive!counterclaim at lylo?

If there is a cc today, we can ensure at least one lynch before then, and a far smaller lynch pool going into 6 or 5 man lylo

@sando can you walk me through your thinking surrounding this, mate?

Fo shizz.

I'm still living in a world of 3 scum within mutant, alonzo, JJ, Fitz, NM, so keep that in mind.

We lynch Alonzo and worst case scenario he's town. I think you're saying that scum jail hider and kill Oxy (the conf!town), and then say Fitz CC's (this could be anyone though). Well for one, we've now got another track off, potentially giving us more info.

For two, we're not in any worse position than we are right now.

What do we have to lose? If we get a CC we have to deal with that and if we get it wrong we can't mislynch anywhere else, why do I care about getting it wrong today vs getting it wrong tomorrow? Getting it wrong tomorrow at least if I get it right I've gotten an extra nights lynch.

Other options revolve around not jailing the hider and confirming NM to us, but I've walked through that previously and I don't see a way for scum to make our lives anything but better there.

[Sando]

I still think we lynch elsewhere, gimmi a couple hours please, work crushing me and need to think it through.

[Sando]

I mean, it might be a good call if you want me to get a track off, but we're gonna have to lynch mutant eventually

Also provides some cover for the hider to achieve things unless they want to shoot into you/mutant and save us the trouble.

[Sando]

Yeah I'm pretty sure we lynch into Alonzo/Fitz, and I'm going to assume worst case that we hit town, but same applies to hitting goon.

Scum can jail hider and shoot tracker - saves us the trouble of dealing with tracker
Scum can jail tracker and shoot town-NM+Pint - saves us the trouble of dealing with NM
Scum can jail hider and shoot Oxy - If we correctly call tracker we get more info from extra track
Scum can jail tracker and shoot Oxy - We get NM confirmed one way or the other

I think those are the options available to scum? In none of them are we coming out behind from leaving the tracker claim dealt with until tomorrow.

Feel free to let me know where I'm wrong here.

[Sando]

I know, but at this point I want him policylynched but that's gamethrowing, so "policy nightkilled" is fine

If only we had that luxury...

[Sando]

if it was anything, that was a town slip from quick

Quick is the most conf!town outside of Oxy/Pint for a whole host of reasons...but I really wish he'd stop talking.

[Sando]

He's just so sure he understands things when he doesn't it's infuriating

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E ... ger_effect

[Sando]

I want to lynch mutant, I think. you?

My reasons not to lynch into the trackers got missed in all this BS from Quick (part of the reason I wish he'd be quiet), so here:

Yeah I'm pretty sure we lynch into Alonzo/Fitz, and I'm going to assume worst case that we hit town, but same applies to hitting goon.

Scum can jail hider and shoot tracker - saves us the trouble of dealing with tracker
Scum can jail tracker and shoot town-NM+Pint - saves us the trouble of dealing with NM
Scum can jail hider and shoot Oxy - If we correctly call tracker we get more info from extra track
Scum can jail tracker and shoot Oxy - We get NM confirmed one way or the other

I think those are the options available to scum? In none of them are we coming out behind from leaving the tracker claim dealt with until tomorrow.

Feel free to let me know where I'm wrong here.

[Sando]

I'd rather just get this out of the way and lynch mutant so I can be nightkilled and blame other people for dumb lynches if we lose

Not letting you off that easy

[Sando]

@sando what happens if we mislynch today, they jail the hider, kill me and ya'll are dealing with 2 live tracker claims?

Then we lose the game if we choose wrong twice in a row. Your entire premise is "what if you choose wrong twice" and all I'm saying is that from the point of choosing wrong equalling a loss it doesn't matter which order we choose wrong in. However, IF we choose right on either of the lynches, and we do it my way, the tracker got another track off, which only helps town.

Also I address that, it's the 3rd option I outlined.

[Sando]

Right... so why don't we go with the plan that makes it so we can't choose wrong twice and lose?

Because...we have to choose twice regardless.

Outline what you think happens if we lynch mutant now, both a scumflip and a townflip, assume we miss the Jailer either way. I think I'm struggling to articulate it and I want to see how you're approaching this so I can change my explanation to suit.

[Sando]

The longer we ensure town has not lost, the more likely town is to win. So I think I'd rather guarantee town makes it to D5 than get an extra shot at a tracker result.

Disagree with this entirely. Take a risk of losing "worse" now for a better town chance to win, or play it safe and reduce town chance to win.

[Sando]

Also if you're so worried about Not_Mafia, then advocate for lynching him today instead of risking the hider

Your value isn't being conf!town, it's the ability to find scum, it's not "risking" you, it's using you.

[Sando]

Also if you're so worried about Not_Mafia, then advocate for lynching him today instead of risking the hider

Your value isn't being conf!town, it's the ability to find scum, it's not "risking" you, it's using you.

I should say that you being conf!town was very valuable to us, but has no further value, whilst your ability to find scum or conf!town people is of future value to us.

[Sando]

Ok Sando I know what you're thinking, get the tracker one last night to see if he catches the scum performing the kill or the jailkeep, but the tracker will certainly be jailkept anyway, so you want me to go behind Not_Mafia and see if I die alone or let the scum kill as both. Sorry, I think it's a bad idea, it involves a lot of WIFOM and WIFOM is bad for town.

Where's the WIFOM?

NM is a mislynch target as town, getting scum to shoot him makes towns job a lot easier.
NM as scum gets found by you hiding, making towns job a whole lot easier.
Only way to stop one of the above happening is to jail you and not the tracker, making towns job a whole lot easier.
Only way to stop one of the above happening and town getting another track result is to jail you and solve our tracker problem, making towns job a whole lot easier.

There is literally no downside to lynching outside the trackers that I can see.

[Sando]

Alright, I'm sleeping on it. It's way too late.

Figure this mess out tomorrow

I'll make a proper big explanatory post later tonight for peeps to read.

[Sando]

If we mislynch today, they jailkeep me and kill outside the trackers. We're in MyLo, and scum!faketracker says "I saw town!tracker make the kill" and town!tracker says "I saw scum!faketracker make the kill" or "this guy who could be scum didn't make the kill", since scum will make the faketracker make the kill. WE WILL NOT GET ANOTHER TRACKER RESULT, I REPEAT, WE WILL NOT GET ANOTHER TRACKER RESULT

Tracker tracks NM and could hit the jailer. In the circumstances that the fake-tracker is also the jailer, yeah I guess we definitively come out without a result, but that doesn't cost us anything.

[Sando]

So the only chance we get something is assuming Not_Mafia is the jailer?? Sorry that's too stretched compared to lynch a CCed scum.

No, we also get info that he's NOT the jailer, which is also valuable.

[Sando]

We make the tracker decision tomorrow and assuming we haven't double mislynched we now know definitively if NM is the tracker or not.

We have to decide between Alonzo/Fitz/NM for 2 scumslots, by lynching the tracker claim now, unless we hit the jailer in the next two days we throw away any future PR power. How would you go about getting more info on those 3? Talk me through the scenario you think is going to happen to allow is to more accurately lynch.

[Sando]

Why the fuck would be knowing NM not being the jailer a valuable info if we are on MyLo tomorrow

It doesn't, but it would matter the day after if we get the tracker right.

[Sando]

...is that a slip

Outside of certain instances like Mylo or single scum etc, it's almost always better to lynch outside of a claim, without CCing. The claim had better gamesolve for you, otherwise wait for independent confirmation before acting, doing this as town provides cover for the real person, and if the real person dies...well that fakeclaim is getting lynched.

Had this come up in 712 recently where I was the tracker and scum fake claimed in a game with SK, decent shot of getting the SK to kill the fakeclaimer there, except that I was forced to go into massive detail about and basically out myself, so it didn't work

Nearly done with my wallpost of explainy, sorry was working till 10 last night

[Sando]

The potential slip was where your phrasing indicated you knew that mutant wasn't the tracker

You're welcome to push this narrative, I'd welcome you to ISO me late in 712 to see how in my last game I was in fact the tracker who got fake-claimed on, there's a good reason I was prepared.

That said, your slip accusation makes no sense even within the context of this game.

[Sando]

game throw or scum claim. Which is the above?

He's scum buddying the idiot town, he's been doing it all day, just move on.

[Sando]

Scum could have manufactured a false positive yes or no?

By the hider? No. Unless you'd like to counterclaim hider right now, you may want to rethink your strategy here.

[Sando]

Scum cant RB Pintu every night and he will return false positives yes or no?

explain the mechanics to a noob.

Scum jail hider, hider gets told that they were jailed.

[Sando]

sando can you vot mutant and let nm hammer now?

It's blatantly anti-town to lynch within the trackers today, so no.

[Sando]

It may or may not be, but that's the decision we're going with.

You're wrong and I'm not going to go along with it, hopefully I can convince people today, otherwise I hope you learn from this in the post-game.

[Sando]

No, hes not. I'll vote Alonzo if the ICs do but Mutant is the optimal lunch.

Flat out isn't, if our scum5 is correct, then getting the lynch right on the trackers is instant win. So the only thing we should look at is how do we reduce our risk in the event that we're wrong. The best way to do that is to stay outside the trackers today.

[Sando]

^wrong about tracker that is

[Sando]

you remember that wiki page that you linked? In my experience, that page is linked far more often by those it describes, than by those that it doesn't.

Yeah I heard the same quote from Sam Harris.

[Sando]

Ok, let’s do this. So first of all, I think everyone but Quick is onboard with:
Town = Oxy, Pint, Sando, Mom, Quick
Scumpossibles = mutant, JJ, NM, Alonzo, Fitz

For the purposes of this I’m assuming equal scumminess from them all, but that doesn’t really matter, it’s just makes expressing this easier. I’m also assuming we’re never going to adequately read NM, which does matter, but not that much. I’m also assuming we’re right on the 5/5 read, if it’s wrong this all falls down.

This Scum5 is SUUUPER important

. With 5 scumpossibles and 3 scums with a mislynch in hand, we have to lynch both townies to lose, meaning if one is conf!towned or NKd, we win. Scum CANNOT shoot into this 5 if we’re right about scum5.

What should the hider do?

With 10 alive we are 1 mislynch away from mylo, and the hider dying would reduce us to 9 but not change that dynamic. We have 5 scum-targets, so there’s 2 towns in that 5, so we’d have to mislynch both of them to lose. That also means that if we can conf!town one of them, we win, since we can no longer mislynch twice in there.

So the proposal is to have the hider state and hide behind NM, given he’s the hardest person in the scum5 to read, getting a confirmed either way is of benefit. One of five things happen:
• Scum NM has hider jailed – no result
• Scum NM lets hider die behind him – conf scum on NM
• Town NM gets hid behind (no jail) – conf town on NM, assuming scum5 is correct, town wins
• Town NM has hider jailed – no result
• Town NM gets killed – NM and hider die, assuming scum5 is correct, town wins
As you can see, 2 of the 5 result in town wins, so we can assume scum won’t do that. 2 of the 5 are jails, which is fine, we lose nothing and don’t gain nothing. And the last outcome is a conf!scum on the hardest slot to read, that’s a good result for town.

In the case of jailer, we basically ignore NM and keep hiding behind him until we lynch the jailer or we’re in mylo. Yes, we could end up with zero information on NM and in mylo and need to make the choice, but that’s the situation we’re going to end up in not doing that, so we may as well try. In the case of NM being the jailer we’ll definitely end up there, so our best option is to track NM and confirm if he’s the jailer or not, since we’re forcing scum to jail they can’t not give a guilty if NM is the jailer here.

What to do with the tracker claims

Ok we have a claim and a CC, and I’m not going to say anything about the validity of these except to state the obvious that it’s 1 scum and 1 tracker here. We’re in the position of:

1 scum within JJ and mutant (tracker-scumblock)
2 scum within NM/Alonzo/Fitz (2scumblock)

If we lynch correctly within the trackers we win, so we’re going to assume we don’t.
If we mislynch twice we lose, and we’ll never get more info on our first lynch into 2scumblock. So with the above assumption, we have to assume we get the first one right.

So we’re in the position of we’ve lynched one scum in NM/Alonzo/Fitz and lynched both tracker claims, so that’s our next 3 days sorted, we’re just talking the order we do it in now. We can also assume that we haven’t hit the jailer since if we do that we also win.

So we’re left with 2 of Alonzo/Fitz/NM alive and 1 scum in there. If we leave the tracker alive, we have the answer to this 100%, if we lynch the tracker today we don’t.

Lynch tracker today: Oxy dies overnight hider jailed, fake-tracker lynched, Quick dies overnight hider jailed, lynch scum in 2scumblock, Sando dies overnight hider jailed, left in Mylo.
Don’t lynch tracker today: lynch scum in 2scumblock, Oxy dies overnight hider is jailed, lynch tracker, Quick dies overnight hider is jailed, lynch faketracker, Sando dies overnight hider jailed, left in Mylo.

Difference between them, in the Don’t lynch tracker scenario, the tracker tracks NM, who the hider is hiding behind, meaning that by mylo he’s either conftown because hider is still being jailed and the jailer aint NM, or he’s confscum due to being the jailer. Either way, town wins.

[Sando]

TLDR: If you accept scum5, only way we lose is a mislynch of tracker and mislynch with our 2 lynches into NM/Alonzo/Fitz. The first lynch into NM/Alonzo/Fitz will always be "blind", the second lynch into it is guaranteed if we lynch tracker tomorrow, if we lynch tracker today it's going to be "blind" as well.

Lynching the tracker tomorrow probably achieves nothing for town, but it is an increased chance and costs us nothing to do, therefore better option.

There's plenty of other actions scum could take than what I've assumed, but with scum5 being true, all of them result in losses. I think I've worked through them all, but posting them just confused an already huge post. Feel free to pose them to me and I'll provide the outcome and why scum cannot do it.

[Sando]

Be aware the lynching Alonzo is a choice between him and Fitz where there's at least one scum, maybe two. I prefer Alonzo, but you shouldn't lynch Alonzo without proper thought under either plan.

[Sando]

doesnt account for scum sando and in a wild universe with town mutant wr autolose because I dont vote you over him ever plus the likely partners are a tiny bit different

mutant is still the right lunch

but I'm hammering Alonzo when the ics switch

Doesn't account for you or Quick being scum either, I've said many times that this relies on the 5/5, if you don't accept that then you shouldn't accept this plan. Pretty sure in a world where you don't accept 5/5 then lynching trackers is the right choice, but I haven't really been focused on it to properly consider it.

[Sando]

pintu, myself, and quick are the only people I'm 100% ride or die with

Pretty much where I'd expect the conftowns to be.

Me and Mom are in the position of only needing to believe in the other person.

Everyone else needs to believe in both me and Mom.

[Sando]

I've said all I can I think, unless we're lynching outside of the trackers or someone wants clarification on why I think we should lynch outside of trackers, I'll just be quiet the rest of today.

[Sando]

Just, Sando's explanation of the strat made a whole lot of sense

If you accept the 5/5 and are the town tracker you should hammer mutant if given the opportunity, since we win if we lynch correctly into the trackers. Doesn't matter how pretty my plan is, if you're given the chance to win the game you take it.

[Sando]

Eh?

If we get the tracker right we win and the 5/5 is correct, we win no matter what. My entire plan is about how to minimise the negatives of mislynching the tracker. You cannot mislynch the tracker as the tracker, so if you're the towntracker you're the one person in the game that definitively should be pushing for the mutant lynch.

[Sando]

Please unvote until Pintu confirms the NM hide at the very least.

[Sando]

I thought the whole plan was to get slightly more info on NM

It is, in the event that we mislynch the tracker. If we lynch correctly on the tracker claim, we're left with 2 scum in 3 people with a mislynch in hand, we can't lose.

[Sando]

Le sigh, unless someone points out Pint specifically saying otherwise, I'm gonna assume he's hiding behind NM tonight.

[Sando]

If mutant flips scum, I'll be jailkept so it doesn't matter and I'm not telling who I'm going to hide to not get a false inno

Wait what, false inno?

[Sando]

Wait what, false inno?

yeah, hider doesn't get a notification if they are jailed

Wait what? I was not aware of this, I thought standard was you were told?

@Mod, can you confirm if the jailed person is notified of being jailed as a PR, or as a non-power role for that matter?

[Sando]

In general, non-investigative roles are not informed as to whether their action succeeded or failed.

Oh interesting, only seen it on investigative I guess. Hider doesn't count as investigative then despite being used as such?

Anyways, 2 in 3, let's go.

VOTE: Alonzo

I'm placing my best on Alonzo+Fitz, what's others guesses? Scum you can play along too for a laff.

[Sando]

Btw, I hid behind jjh just to be saved once more by my favorite scumteam

I'm super confused

[Sando]

Btw, I hid behind jjh just to be saved once more by my favorite scumteam

I'm super confused

Why? If the jailkeeper jailkeeps me, my action Is not made.

And if they didn't you hid behind the confirmed PR that was guaranteed to get NKd...

[Sando]

You must feel better now you are out of the Scum closet tho sando?

Your efforts to break up the town 5 are weak and you should feel bad

[Sando]

Doesn't hurt to be thourough

Well I mean you have your choice, me or Mom, to push to try and save the game for your scumteam. Make your choice wisely.

[Sando]

if Alonzo flips scum Fitz is confirmed town and you NEVER vote him this game. his Alonzo vote yesterday never comes from partner fitz.

thoughts on this @sando @pintu @quick

I mean my scumpool is Alonzo, Fitz, NM then a big gap to Mom. If this is just a "Fitz doesn't bus" I don't buy it, if we're right about the scum5 then they really have no choice but to try things.

But me and Mom have 4 conf!town, ourselves, Quick, Oxy and Pint, so if we believe each other to be town then we've gamesolved and "zomg it's not Fitz" is rather immaterial. So unless Mom is scum I don't care, and him saying it isn't something scum would say, so.... yeah I don't think he's scum.

[Sando]

I'll be honest, my investment in this game atm is like a 3/10.

Please drop it down to 0, for everyone's sake.

[Sando]

And @Oxy...my take on the tracker counter claims and how to handle that was to let the competing claims cause problems for scum. If both claims had gone to night scum (assuming the lynch yesterday wasn't the JK) would have to JK jjh and let pintu do what he wanted. Or jk pintu and risk jjh getting off a successful track. And if we had lynched out side of the tracker claims and actually got lucky and hit the jk then they really would have been in a spot last night. So I'm not sure what you find weird about my tracker comments. I think Sando was expressing similar thoughts.

Pretty similar yeah. If anyone wants to read scummy into this, they might want to start with showing how it was anti-town.

[Sando]

ftr fitzs last posts are scummish. idc. vote Alonzo today please n thanks.

In an independent "I still stand by not S+S" way? Or in a "yeah could be that Alonzo guys buddy" way?

[Sando]

If we mislynch today, tomorrow is MyLo/LyLo depending to if I live another night or not.

To be clear on this, only way to no-lynch safely tomorrow after a mislynch today is for you to not hide, in which case you're the last conftown (assuming Oxy dies tonight) and we don't gain anything? Or you say you're gonna do that and risk town losing for scum to miss their NK and...nothing changes?

I guess what I'm asking is; no-lynch tomorrow if we mislynch today is basically a pointless exercise yeah?

[Sando]

This agenda you are trying to push is Scummy af.

You what? Pointing out game-state as it relates to towns best options is scummy?

The idea that you ever represented this site in something makes me seriously want to never play here again.

[Sando]

He didn't, he's representing another site

Oh thank god

[Sando]

He didn't, he's representing another site

Oh thank god

Did you know that chaos is good for Town? I bet you didn't know that. That's alright, you'll figure it out eventually.

ChaosHawk isn't in this game?

Are you sure ChaosHawk isn't Quick's alt and he's softclaiming town after everyone in the game has stated he's town?

[Sando]

Also this will be my gambit: I'll hide behind Not_Mafia. If I don't die and the jailkeeper's alive, it doesn't mean anything. If we both die, game should be solved by PoE (good luck making Sando, MOMOMEN and Quick work together, Oxy)

I'm being scumread by Oxy because I posted a better gamesolve...part of which you literally just posted here and got angry at me yesterday for suggesting. Me and Momo are on the same page with this game, Oxy is simply being difficult and muddying the water to threaten a town win, due solely out of pique that I can tell. Quick is just useless and has been since D1.

[Sando]

Well, and in retrospect you fought against the mutant lynch.

I fought against lynching within the tracker claims at all and I was the (last) person who forced the claim and stated that we shouldn't CC, which was the scumplan... If that's "fighting against the mutant lynch" then sure, ya got me.

[Sando]

but I can also see the scum motivation to try and divert the lynch off your partner. jj was never getting lynched over mutant.

Yeah, but I was specifically pushing my narrative prior to JJ's claim, I said we should not even CC. I deliberately never got involved in the tracker claims at all. Scum fakeclaiming is a ploy deliberately designed to draw out PRs...and I was the one person pushing against that scumplan, even the PR who went against me and along with the scum plan. What's the scum motivation for that?

[Sando]

if alonzo flips red, you're almost certainly town. I'll grant you that

I just want you to actually articulate the scum motivation you think is possibly behind my actions.

[Sando]

I flip green... show me what you learned

thanks for the help, pal

You're the last conftown that scum can reliably kill without further narrowing our scumpool...so you're pretty likely to die overnight yourself.

[Sando]

all solid TRs still?

Yep

[Sando]

mislynch the tracker today, ensuring that you reach 5 player lylo

I'd have to go back and look to see if you or a possible scum buddy was pushing for pin to out his target, allowing scum to not send a jail action.

Why would we be more likely to mislynch the trackers today rather than yesterday? To my mind we're giving ourselves an ok shot at getting a track outcome, or scum make the tracker choice for us, how does that go badly for town any more than lynching the trackers yesterday?

I was very open with what I felt about the tracker and hider actions should have been last night and why. Now it was predicated on a false assumption that hider gets notified of jail, but I'm fairly sure that merely minimises the town benefit of my plan, does not tip it into scum benefit.

[Sando]

Stop the tracker from outing, and mislynch alonzo

hope to dodge the tracker target

mislynch the tracker today, ensuring that you reach 5 player lylo

So you're saying my scum motivation is "hope" the tracker doesn't find me or my scumbuddy...and instead of that we (me and my scumteam) just safely killed the tracker? Seems like just safely killing the tracker is a better option for me as scum?

[Sando]

so you're betting on alonzo + fitz

which is my lynch order

why are you fighting this so hard?

Because I'm left with the specials tomorrow and I'm hoping you're the voice of reason they'll listen to from the grave tomorrow. Quick is incapable of actually articulating a real argument, so I need you to articulate it so I can actually respond to it.

Yes I'm Alonzo+Fitz and then NM if that's not game-ending.

[Sando]

If alonzo flips red, lynch fitz -> nm ->sando
if alonzo flips green, lynch fitz -> sando/nm -> the last of sando/nm

that's the best compromise I can give you. Given a green flip, I think I'm as confident of town!sando as I am of town!nm

but I'm not jumping you above momo/quick in my town reads

I'm cool with all of this, yeah I shouldn't be above Quick for anyone, as I've said, and I've simply put me and Momo on the same level. If it comes down to me vs NM then so be it.

[Sando]

So If Quicks the Scum here

Will Momo and Sando be retiring from Mafia (assuming they're not his partner!) =)

He'll have played village idiot to a fucking T yeah He's also really insistent on me suggesting a gamewinning solution for him as scum makes me scummy though...

I'm never playing with him again though, so no real need either way.

[Sando]

Why Did I need to Die for you all to make that read?

Honestly my scumread on Fitz other than the gamesolvy one is that in my experience he's a pretty easy mislynch target and the fact that he's not getting much attention says he's scum. But that needs time to mature...

[Sando]

Yeah if I die tonight I see exactly the same order. I'll go further and solve the problem of town!Alonzo and say fitz -> sando.

You're either alive at the end or you're solving the NM vs Sando debate anyway.

[Sando]

I still think we should lynch Quick for the lolz

Well if Alonzo flips scum and you die behind NM tonight then sure, Quick tomorrow

[Sando]

The abuse Quick took in this one

You buddied up to a poorly playing person Day2 in an effort to get me scumread...I have to call that out and part of that means pointing out the poor play.

pedit: I'm sure you could find some harsh words from me directed towards Quick, Pintu, and likely from Mom as well.

[Sando]

And as I explained and Proved my SR on you was Totally independant of any read quick had.

I mean you're either scum and I'm right or you're town and I'm wrong about your motivation, but you're not going to know that till post-game or if the dead thread is spoilt. It's fairly pointless to discuss when I haven't flipped, but I'm just giving my reasoning for why I needed to call out poor play.

[Sando]

MOMO literally hasto flip red here to justify most of his shit.

From my POV if you flip green then it's pretty likely to be Quick+NM+Sando+maybePintu in the endgame, and as town it's really frustrating to know that in that situation Quick would gamethrow by lynching me. I imagine Momo feels the exact same way just substitute Sando for Momo there.

[Sando]

Yah well Quicks triggered So he has to Keep on Momo,

If he flipsto you hes scum IMO

Quick

SHOULD

die tomorrow night, he's the most conftown person and going into mylo scum want those people gone. If he doesn't, it's because his reads are bad...you gotta see how that's frustrating for town, especially knowing he's not going to revise his viewpoint no matter what people say?

[Sando]

final 3/4, rather*. hence the maybe pintu (you're the 4th)

Plus I've articulated why no-lynch is at best a null move from town's part and basically pointless. So yeah basically final 3/4 and I don't really see much difference between those unless hider wins the game and we never get there.

[Sando]

he's just listing the people who he thinks will be alive in the final 3, pintu. he's not calling you scum

Do you see why I'm pushing you to articulate things before you die?

[Sando]

Yeah basically if we no-lynch after a mislynch, we lose if hider is shot behind a town. So the only safe move is for the hider to not hide and thus get shot themselves. So all we achieve is the death of a conftown, no new information gathered for us.

[Sando]

I was Victoria, right?

NSW is better.

Shit, scum killed the only person who would get that.

[Sando]

VOTE: Havingfitz

[Sando]

Good job. I'm hiding behind Sando this night

Fuuuuuck I hope Fitz is the Jailer or you+Quick are gonna throw this aren't you?

[Sando]

BTW. I did some diving last night. Momo isn't teamed with Mutant. Still don't like that momo never showed why mutant was Scum.

When Momo dies overnight, pretty please stop and think about

why

.

[Sando]

Sando why they would kill MOMO instead of you if I'm hiding behind you

Because I'm the mislynch target, which Mom doesn't agree with. Hence why I desperately hope Fitz is the Jailer so you would clear me, although in that case, scum would have to kill me, yes.

If they can jail you, they will. I'm worried you still don't get the reasoning behind that?

[Sando]

You fucking kidding me right. I explained that like five times and you kept asking. I get that, I think you scumslipped being the jailkeeper. But whatever

Me or NM?

[Sando]

You think I slipped jailer because I can use my brain to see what's going to happen? Yeah righto.

As I've been saying for days I think NM is the last scumpossible, so pretty sure it's between me and NM, which you and Quick agree with. As either alignment for me, the best scenario for scum is to leave it as me vs NM, since both me and NM probably consider Mom un-mislynchable at this point (I do).

If I'm town, NM can't let you hide behind me and confirm me, and if he kills me+you he's left with Quick+Mom against him...even Quick can get it right at that point.
If I'm scum, obviously I can't let you hide behind me and confirm me as scum, and I still need NM as my mislynch.

[Sando]

This has got to be one of the most frustrating late-games I've ever played. We walked out the guaranteed town-win for 3-4 days and nope, let's just look elsewhere to find a way to lose.

2 Take Quick to LyLo

Urgh, watching it happen, pointing it out and it STILL happening, even after I'm NKd and his biggest mislynch is gone...never playing with him again, I can't do it.

Also love that I called the main threat to town being NM jailer like 4 days ago

Why is everyone here so insistent on instant CCs, like, what do people think it accomplishes?

[Sando]

tbh had town won this i'd have said something like "scum made great nightkills until they killed Sando (in the lynchpool) and left MOMOMEN alive" but then they got mislynched anyway so

I was fully expecting for you to open the thread while I was asleep, find Mom dead and myself already QL'd.

[Sando]

feel free to quote the PM you sent me when you killed sando

Oh god...I wanna know...but I also don't...nah I wanna know!

[Sando]

why did you sleep in for so long?

GF...

[Sando]

You were posting at 6am my time at certain points, and I'm taking from dead thread that you're in SA, so you're half hour behind me, making it 5.30am for you!! I think your idea of sleeping in might be a bit different from me.

[Sando]

N_M is actually not horrible as town but has a meta that solidly benefits his scumgame because people who take no effort to read him decide that he's a gamethrowing trolling quickhammering asshole as both alignments, which he's not. Quickhammering someone without a claim in a setup with three TPRs (none of which N_M was claiming) should've been a huge red flag.

jjh solidly identified N_M's scum meta, but sadly lynched mutant the one day that N_M could actually have gotten lynched.

I mean I was directing an unclaimed tracker on NM jailer in 2521, which if we'd followed post mutant fakeclaim and avoided JJ out of my 3 scums, town would have been incredibly unlucky to come out without a guaranteed win.

I'm actually super annoyed about that whole thing tbh, deliberately tried to townread to victory based on Math's townreading post, correctly townread enough to gamesolve, didn't get believed and was actively played against by town PRs and obv-towns.

[Sando]

my fault for barely playing past d3, but honestly... are you kiddin me? i feel, unfairly towards eddie, mafia'd out, specifically ms, so i have to sincerely apologize to eddie. i also have to apologize that i left him alone in a mylo phase where we were actually lynched. in no universe did i genuinely consider this a possibility, but holy fuck.

Lol, I think everyone was amazed.

If I'm town, NM can't let you hide behind me and confirm me, and if he kills me+you he's left with Quick+Mom against him...even Quick can get it right at that point.

[Sando]

Ok genuinely regarding the hider, why did no-one ever agree with me about the whole "let the hider die" thing?

Like...the hider is hugely more beneficial to town dead than alive. Staying alive as the hider by messing around with hiding actions is not helping town.

[Sando]

I was up for the tracker plan until you told me not to be

Lol, it was under the proviso of we'd follow Alonzo-Fitz-NM lynch plan for the guaranteed win. Apparently that wasn't good enough for people. Sorry!

[Sando]

I was up for the tracker plan until you told me not to be

Also by eod I was 90% sure scum would kill you anyway and just throw mutant under the bus, main part was to not CC and trust where I was directing.

[Sando]

Because in this specific case, letting the hider die leaves momomen alone with quick with 0 confirmed town, which is a town loss

Either way, you need Quicks vote, and needing that vote is what sunk town. The point is, what does having the hider alive accomplish? You're in a 4 person with 1 confirmed or a 3 person with 0 confirmed...same number of unconfirmed people.

[Sando]

Huge shout out to this post. Quick and Sando are very good at their sides of the game -- Quick on the psychological side, and Sando on the logical side.

I get the sentiment, and I'd definitely agree that I'm not very good at making reads based on psychology. What I would say though, you cannot ignore the other side, which is what I feel Quick was doing. I'll acknowledge psychology and listen to others on it, even if I don't trust it all that much. But Quick just flat out refusing to acknowledge logic meant that when logic was the better choice, town lost, and I think in most games by the late-game, logic is best.

Also if you look at our reads, Quick was much better early game, I was much better late game. Yeah I lol'd into Mutant+NM early game but didn't actually hit home with it, whilst Quick was actually fairly strong on Mutant early game. Sure there's plenty of town doing stupid stuff and scum doing townie stuff early game, so logical play isn't great. But by days 3+, the chances of scum playing illogically that entire time are basically zero, and logic based reads become much stronger.

[Sando]

Yeah Sando if I had made the right call and voted NM you wouldn't even be discussing this, and I should've voted NM but I really really really didn't give a fuck at the end 'cause I was really mad at MOMO and Quick

I thought your reads were good, and I get the frustration from whatever day it was that I was directing you not realising you wouldn't get notified of jail (NM didn't know this and was asking in Mafia thread so I felt better about that). It was just the idea of you being alive as a benefit that I didn't get, Quick was always gonna be left alive and that meant you needed his vote no matter what. I wouldn't have backed anyone to convince him, and I certainly can't understand someone signing up to try that

[Sando]

So I guess NM is actually impossible to read... Never not PLing him again.

Like...everyone told you to lynch him...

[Sando]

You were good Sando, forgot to give a shout out

Personally, I found Pintu and Sando to be our biggest threats. I very much enjoyed my heated debates with Pintu and Sando was so damn accurate with Scum5. Had I been town, I'd have been following Sando a lot so I decided to do so as scum knowing that it potentially paints him as a scum buddy trying to keep me alive :3

Pintu's reads were

gooooood

during that phase, it was just his PR play that was really irking me. Thankfully, although contradicting my plan (which was fairly pointless post CC tbf) on the tracker he helped push you, I was definitely heavily leaning you for scum, but forcing scum to solve it for me was definitely going to help me mentally. I think the main issue with Pintu was that in I think both me and Mom's case, personal conflict bled over into scum-reads, which bled over into being a fairly ineffective buffer in the end-game against town mislynching.

[Sando]

Dont have to read Not_Mafia when you can read MOMOMEN tho

TRing Momo was certainly easier for me than SRing NM, but then that tends to be the way for me. By the end of the game I was more confident of my Mom read than Quick, which I'd had since D1, the situations Mom was put in during those mid to late days just screamed town reaction.

[Sando]

I think this set up is a bit town sided.

Honestly felt that way, I was sitting there D3 feeling like I'd gamesolved and had absolutely no right to do so after town had mislynched twice and had the detective killed. That might be due to me actively trying Math's Townhunt strat and it just being that powerful, but I don't think (I know) I'm that good and it felt like scum were winning handedly and then had the game taken away with a single clear and some lucky PR allocations.

I think Math's change to the jailer is 100% the right call, and certainly makes the tracker/vig decision a bit harder for that person, but it'll further unbalance the game I think. Might need some changes elsewhere to help scum.

[Sando]

We had a reasonably lucky town game and still lost. This isn't an explicitly town sided setup IMO

I think the only piece of luck we explicitly got was Pintu being the NK target and therefore knowing his result, and being jailed instead of killed behind you N1. First one is town lucky, but dying N1 behind what was a fairly random scumkill who was the detective would have been super unlucky for town.

As is, with a single clear the game was effectively solved D3 despite 2 mislynches and the most powerful PR being dead N1.

There was some other luck (JJ being the PR meant the gamesolve went from 80% to 100%), but overall I don't feel town was particularly lucky.

[Sando]

yeah hella shout out to everyone who basically correctly sheeped MOMOMEN's read on Quick despite clearly individually wanting to scumread him

your gamesolve did basically rely on MOMOMEN/Quick being super obvtown and happening to roll VT

remember that 2 slots that were in the PoE pool, pintu and jjh, both happened to turn up PR, which was fantastic and put the game in the bag

there was a decent chance they'd have gotten lynched as VTs

I wasn't sheeping Mom on that I don't think, I think I may have even been calling Quick town prior to swap in maybe?

The 100% gamesolve did rely on the tracker being in the lynchpool. But if say Mom was tracker and followed the pre-CC plan, NM was outed as jailer and scum would have had to make the leap of faith to allow Pintu to die behind the jailer to have any hope at that point. Even if you ignore that, the pool was 3 scum in 5, which my math says is 80% town-win, but I could very well be doing that math wrong.

Yeah if say Mom was tracker and Quick hider, the plan probably wouldn't have existed, my brain is struggling with what-ifs right now

[Sando]

Sorry, that was at least in part a deliberate ploy by me, I wanted to see what would happen if scum were forced to keep up with 2 townie slots in my and duckling just smashing out the day. I was expecting scum to active-lurk and basically post as little as possible but try and appear caught up and engaged, while town would basically classically lurk and not contribute much. For a variety of reasons it was a poor strategy in this game and I only caught town, sorry!

[Sando]

But after your play this game jumping in with "you post too much" kinda rubbed me the wrong way.

I don't think you posted too much, especially in context. You seem to be a "keep up" kinda guy, and I think lurking whilst I was pulling my shenanigans would have sent up an even bigger flag. PRs are hard to play, easy to direct imo, but then that's specifically my strong-point, so I try to avoid criticising PRs for their playstyle or choices of what to do, at least until I can start giving input as VT in game.