Open 790 | Purgatory | Game Over!
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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Personally I wish to be heavened early or late or at some point really.In post 27, Isis wrote:In post 25, Cthylla wrote:
if it means you'll policy heaven me then i am obviously Hectic friend : )In post 21, Isis wrote:I need to know if you're kidding or not about your guessing skilz.
Cause uh my readrate is etto really bad on Hectic right now, like really bad, and I would kind of like to policy heaven that.Historically towns playing this setup that have heavened scum early have won, so you shouldn't be smiley if you're town. That's what I was part of last time.
Does this mean I actually finished a game without you playing in it or spectating it, Hectic?
My quest for power consumes me.-
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka Goon
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Whether or not I see a picture of a Japanese Narset in your upcoming post will determine how I read you moving forward.
pedit: Hmmm-
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 42, Isis wrote:Ok if that won't push me to pull the trigger nothing will
I will not actually regret this decision
When I opened Amazon they were sitting in my cart, right where I've had them ambivalently for three months, on the precipice of my desire
One day I will join you! Can't really play magic right now though and I like buying from my store
My sleeves have collected a lot of dust over the past 5 months of shuffling waiting for the world to open up again.
Spoiler:-
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Hayasaka Goon
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I should really play the game though as happy as I am to see Isis order my favorite card and would love to stay off topic.
I think one of Isis or Cthylla is scum here, I think scum have the most incentive to open up the game with this much presence.
Similarly to the way scum tend to open up theme games strongly because they spent time getting hyped up already. I think scum would look and see their win con involves getting sent to heaven and would promptly decide to open up the game like this to try and achieve an early pocket.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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I am sorry Norwei I didn't mean to do that to youIn post 60, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
I am very hurt by that Hayasaka.In post 59, Hayasaka wrote:Everyone else seems very mellow to me so I don't have super strong opinions across the board on them.
I appreciate everything you have done so far!-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 80, Isis wrote:I'm voting Dannflor. Do you think he's scum?
pedit: I'm not into multiplayer/EDH, sorry
^ To the important half of that post
In regards to Dannflor, I think he could be doing a better job trying to pocket the crowd if he was demonspawn here. Although he hasn't really done enough to make me feel strongly 1 way or the other.
The only read I am particularly happy about is my current vote. I think your energy is headed into way too many OOG posts for me to be able to think you are trying to actually pocket anyone.
This setup is weird because scum have to do more then just sit in the middle ground to win like a usual game of mafia, they really have to go above and beyond to win.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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It's the same reason why people choose to talk while playing Assassin in the Palace.In post 84, Isis wrote:Is that true? I thought this setup has a scumsided EV, so in theory not doing anything would work?
Like I felt like if the partner of the heavened scum in Dannflor's Purg had done less (instead of doing 4x average participation, as a hydra) the associatives to the heavened scum wouldn't have been as strong and our randomer helling would have lost out more.
People like to squeeze out any points of EV they can, which would involve overextending early to try and get an early Heaven. Maybe you are right though and people you like to play with just take positive EV situation and try not to mess it up.
I could be wrong as not all people are the same and I certainly don't know the mind behind an alt, but I think people who are trying to town tell early on are more likely to be hellspawn. I used to think people who came out kicking where town but I ended up recording the stats on it and it turned out it was something that actually favored scum. Which is true for a lot of tells actually given they only need to work 30% of the time to "favor scum".
If we include the fact I am playing mafia here and not just applying stats I've collected to make reads. Then I also think scum are more likely to want to play like that in this setup.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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out of game.
Also, I'd like to make my posts pretty, so I am awaiting the tutorial from Isis.-
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 126, Isis wrote:Hay is a terrible nickname for Hayasaka and I am going to call her Narset until she asks me to stop which might be immediatelyYou may call me that if you'd like.
What deck do you run Narset in?
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Hayasaka Goon
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Actually I like the look of the blue Isis suggested a bit more.
Not sure if I agree with the Green Crayon read, he doesn't seem evil to me although maybe I'll see it down the line.
I am starting to like Dannflor for town his vote movement seems real. Although probably within the realm of fake-able actions.
Given the nature of this setup I think someone has to vote someone they don't want to vote as long as they think they are voting with town. We hold such a small amount of the votes that is kind of needed.-
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 221, Cthylla wrote:i change playstyle and gimmick across alts
sureness of reads are part of playstyle and i have plenty of town and scum games where i act very sure about reads
and also plenty where i act or am unsure about themI sort of understand this, this account has a functioN as well although it's not completely clear unless I told you what it was. Although to some degree I disagree with the notion of "faking confidence" since so many levels of mafia tend to get lost while playing over text I feel like that is something that should be preserved. But I guess it wasn't your choice to out so there isn't much you could have done about this.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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Replying to this nicely was absurdly annoying to format so I will just not do it. So I am just going to reply to the parts that involve me.
This is a very good post, I think the anaylsis here is very much on point.
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I checked my stores online store and Narset was both expensive and out of stock, so I will probably avoid making that purchase in hindsite. I also want to make sure I still am using the deck which will help me decide if I want one copy or 2/3. We will see but I agree I shouldn't keep my hopes up.
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For the sake of the alt, let's say I am not experienced with Hectic because I don't want to delve into meta beyond the initial read I gave. The idea behind testing reads like this is that the number I found which shows entering threads like that indicate someone is more likely to be scum is a statistic that would include individual playstyles. Although I agree maybe I should do more then just play a game of statistics and just start yoinking people. I guess we will see by the end of this catch up where my vote lies.
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I was being nice to Norwei he hasn't given me a very strong impression either way. Which could be town indicative in this setup I guess? He does need to end up endgaming somehow if he is scum. But I don't really have a good read on the slot. He is likely someone I won't try and read myself and let those with meta on him to do it for me.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 328, clidd wrote:I would like to see more opinions in Word's posts before commenting.
Particularly, I find his interpretive reasoning different from the town!Word that I know.I hope you elaborate on this down the line even if you don't immediately. I am half putting this in my ISO if I ever want to look back at my own thoughts to make sure you follow up on this.-
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka Goon
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I like keeping my thought process open. I tend to read back on my own ISO to help keep my thoughts in line in a game of mafia otherwise I'd just be acting on whatever I remember and the last few pages instead of the thoughts I've developed over the course of the game. No explanation I can give beyond that because it wasn't a post that had much weight behind it.
Other people's meta reads tend to be pretty interesting to me, not because I find those reads hard to fake but they tend to have a pretty decent accuracy to them. Even when scum make them they usually have some element of truth to them since it's hard to lie about something I can check in the late game when I am trying to grind. So when I saw your post I wanted the explanation to see how it could help me.
pedit: umm... I am going to post this but I half think I am still misintepretting your posts??-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 2, Morning Tweet wrote:Win Conditions:
- Town wins if the majority of scum (2) are sent to Hell.
- Scum wins if the majority of scum (2) are sent to Heaven --OR-- if a townie is sent to Hell during Judgment Day.All it would do is bring us a judgment day.
It wouldn't outright make us lose.
Although I guess your right for some reason I forgot we still actually need to lynch scum even if we don't send scum to heaven.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Although in general I think good heaven days should still be a priority? Judgement days only occur when scum control 50% of the votes which means the dead townies have a 50/50 chance to lynch scum in a vacuum, and I'd argue it should be easier then that.
So by having good heaven days and bad hell days we are moving towards an easier game state for us to win in.
But bad heaven days will just result in us losing before we reach that 50/50 world.
I am not arguing we should be killing town but it's more I think we should put a stronger focus on town hunting right now?
My nomination for the first town is Dannflor.
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Hayasaka Goon
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Also a lot of this stems on the fact that I think Green Crayon could be town for me and I see him being pushed so I was trying to decide what to do about that. So these thoughts do have some level of a basis that isn't just insane rambling.
I started to evaluate how bad would killing him actually be since my read on him is more. I wouldn't send him to heaven or hell not a town read to oppose the currently present scum reads.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 362, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
Alright. Tell me more about it.In post 360, Hayasaka wrote:My nomination for the first town is Dannflor.He doesn't strike me as being agenda driven this game. He is kind of just solving and doing his own thing I guess.
Do you think he is scum or do you just disagree with me having a town read here?
I don't feel that much stronger about anyone else.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 366, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I’m just a bit suspicious if you have an agenda for pushing this right now. But individually i also have a light TR on Dann.Idk, I am confused in terms of getting a good scum read so I am trying to figure out what else I can be doing with my time right now.-
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka Goon
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I agree with the consensus he is flipping demon right now. Something about the way he is posting is giving me the feeling he is walling because he can not because he should. I also think he looks worse in his current exchange with Isis.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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I think the wagon has 2-3 scum on it and off wagon has 0-1 scum.
Mainly due to the pace in which we achieved that lynch, I just highly doubt that as a town we were able to mislynch that fast while I am the only town off wagon. That would raise the question of, is both GC and Walter scum together and happened to be off wagon? And I think the very simple answer to that question is no.
Issue is all 3 scum likely aren't on the wagon together which would mean voting off the wagon not considering my self would be a 50/50 which is actually worse odds then just voting on wagon.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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I really like playing white
Not having fliers in limited is incredibly boring and sometimes I don't want to play blue.
Jokes aside let me think about this for a bit I am not sure I can be persuaded that easily.
pedit: You are making the correct call not disturbing the kitty.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 517, clidd wrote:Because she's thinking differently and I can't see how she thinks Dann is the best option in the context of his activity and other options. GC fits in the same world.
Do you think I am not trying to be critical of my own reads?
I don't know we just disagree and we can't really say which one of us is right until the post game. Feels like a weird way to attack the idea that we disagree rather then the points themselves being brought up.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 526, clidd wrote:I think that you're trolling in your reads.
If we're disagreeing like that, I don't think it's natural if everyone on this is town. That is my impression.I mean my hesitation on the word lynch was warranted as we can see.
I feel like the general accepted idea this game is that everything is incredibly easy and while I think your paranoia throughout this exchange is making me think you are town.
That suddenly doesn't put any more weight into your reads nor does it change the fact that almost 50% of the living players aren't actually town.
I wouldn't say I think GC is town but I am certainly not resolved in saying he is scum or even leaning that way.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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UNVOTE:
I don't town read Dannflor atm. I am not sure who I actually trust if you want me to be honest.
I feel like I am the only one who isn't incredibly scared of the fact that with 8 alive we are dealing with a scum team of 3?
Everyone feels rather relaxed in regards to that information which feels incredibly strange to me. Maybe GC's paranoia in regards to everything is giving me a level of warmth that is leaning towards a thought process similar to my own?-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Something about this top 3 pool to me just feels right and it's why I am reluctant to just throw GC under the bus.
Because these were the people I trusted to be town at the time of his post. Although I wouldn't say I have any confident reads at this moment in time.
I stand by Walter vote I made in the sense that I don't think 2 scum are ever off wagon with me.
And if I send a scum to heaven at the very least their is a huge question mark slot I will determine is town.
But without people being able to agree on that entire plan I don't see why I would push a singular read like that.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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GC I think the last 2 pages show that Clidd is probably town?
I don't think describing a town who is putting a reasonable amount of effort into the game as "trolling" is likely ever a good idea.
I either have a screw loose, get pissed off and that means trouble for Clidd.
And even if I wouldn't react adversely to that I'd have to assume his entire exchange makes sense in regards to that quote.
I think his general stance in regards to that is fairly townie, although his self meta is giving me a bit of a pause.
So half the time that's just a bad play and the other half of the time he has to outsmart me. So I am sort of leaning town, also this just isn't a gamestate where I feel scum need to slam down a bunch of paranoia unless it's (Isis, Cythlla, Clidd) in particular as the team so the general thread presence they have wouldn't be as noticeable to him.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 549, clidd wrote:I think I'm trolling too.
I thought we were dealing with 2 scums (9p setup is 2 scum to me).I mean hopefully you are just town trolling? At least that means I moving towards the actual correct world we are living in.
I don't think both Isis and Cythlla are scum for the way they are interacting. Although it's not fully clearing it's something Isis and Cythlla would have to actively be trying to fake rather then a post that just comes naturally.
Which means if GC is town and my general gut feelings are right then I have too many towns already.
(Clidd, Myself, GC, Dann, Norwei, Isis/Cythlla)
Which means to some degree what I am doing already has to be wrong which sucks especially given the overall lack of what is currently going on inside the thread.
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Hayasaka Goon
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Hayasaka Goon
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I just feel these last 2 pages really make me think Clidd and GC are a lot more likely to be town then they were previously.
Which really just makes my reads feel all over the place.
Also if right by voting Clidd or GC I am breaking apart whoever I think is town which would essentially just stick us in some flavor of lylo tomorrow.
But it's not like we can mess up this phase by shooting a low tier town read since the "judgement" phase doesn't work if we don't have a town in heaven.
The ruleset doesn't state what would happen if we didn't have town in heaven during the judgement phase but we can just assume that it would be a loss for us.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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My day 1 play assumes scum will play poorly and will play on auto pilot not trying to fake anything. Typically this is a decent strat if town reaing most of the game and nailing the bad scum player is what you want to do. But unfortunately a combination of such a large % of the game being scum and us currently being in the heaven phase means my usual approach won't work.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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If strategy wasn't a thing I was considering I'd be voting Clidd right now. But to some degree I value having his opinion available on the battlefield.
GC and Norwei I am just not sure I am ready to call them town and just move on. I am going to check both ISOs and get back to you all.
I'd prefer if people started to talk more about who they wanted to send to heaven I am only sure what a few of you want to. We also have people like Isis who are just talking about scum reads over the heaven vote :/ Not saying that's a bad thing to do, it just makes finding a solid direction difficult.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 591, Isis wrote:I'm not nervous about it being a 3:5 ftr because I think townhunting is less brutalized by ratios than scumhunting but this is like the only setup for testing that (besides Undertale opens pls pre-in) so it's not an opinion with a strong foundationIf we are right on the heaven then we are just scum hunting in 3:4 tomorrow which seems very worrisome to me!
Although maybe it's just me who is constantly afraid of being wrong in this game. Maybe I should be looking at this game in a more short term manner since today is likely going to be relatively easy.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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I've been on the fence if I truly want to be heavened. To some degree I view myself as a pretty competent player with good enough reads so I can trust myself to not make a shit call. But it's also not something I am sure I'd want to make all on my own since I think I'd allow myself to be unnecessarily swayed by the living which is just the worst thing a heavened player should do.
I am very eager to see the catch up post from Cythlla since I am not actually sure Isis is town so more information is always appreciated.
Overall I think GC is approaching this game like town so I am not sure what inconsitencies Cythlla saw, and I am wondering if those are even alignment indicative inconsistencies. Town are perfectly capable of being inconsistent and many times inconsitencies can indicate someone is actually town so it's a read I am relatively interested in engaging her on.-
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Hayasaka Goon
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In post 604, Isis wrote:In post 603, Hayasaka wrote:
I'd be willing to compromise and vote Clidd here but I believe he doesn't actually want to be heavened and that's a wish I am willing to respect at this moment in time.This is the wrong attitude. Not wanting to go to heaven makes him townier, which is all the more reason to drag him kicking and screaming through the pearly gates.
It's like when Sam doesn't really want to carry the ring, and then you realize they should probably actually send Frodo home and have Sam carry the ring.
Every amount of preference clidd genuinely has for staying in purgatory gives him -1 pts for "give clidd what he prefers" and +20 for "clidd's preference means this is a safe heaven"
Why do you want to honor clidd's preference, and is it based on winning this game at any cost or a natural desire to be nice to people?I can be nice and win this game D:
We also just don't gain much in terms of information since it is clear cut putting him in Heaven isn't the worst idea. Even right now trying to make it not happen Clidd is going to be the only one who won't want to do it. And in general I just find that information is relatively important.
Although the above is a retroactive reason I came up with this morning.
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I mean we can heaven him if we as a group truly cannot find another player we all believe to be town. I think a player can be conensus town to the degree in which scum are unlikely to fight it and town are unlikely to disagree, without believing I actually have a 100% read on Clidd. I am reluctant to ever state reads with that much adamancy because to some degree I agree with that logic that those reads don't happen very often.-
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Also I am just not that much more confident Clidd is town compared to Green Crayon after recent events. Pushing GC for town is offering me a lot more interesting posts then pushing Clidd for town ever will. So from my own perspective I am not altering my own win rate while achieving the goal I listed.-
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