Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Ico

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Ico

hey talk to me about this? i don't think it was random, and that is a weird and mystical and exciting feeling.

Don't care for this:

Spoiler: posts

VOTE: gypix

Always trust datisi gut early game

it's not much, but i've got an early townread of hoopla here

luckily for them i'm already solidly pocketed so it's ok

Also not particularly keen about the gypyx shenanigans. Seems like a particularly confident push over very little. Feels like early scum distancing.

[Green Crayons]

What is it about addressing the flaws in Hoopla's plan, at that precise moment, that caught your attention?

[Green Crayons]

@username

[Green Crayons]

Uh... ok, that just happened, safe to say that scum is on my wagon, try to look for persons who Fake finding me scummy, i'd probably look around grumpy / marquis, anyways bye sucks to suck

VOTE: gypyx

[Green Crayons]

Uh... ok, that just happened, safe to say that scum is on my wagon, try to look for persons who Fake finding me scummy, i'd probably look around grumpy / marquis, anyways bye sucks to suck

VOTE: gypyx

came because the "I totally think I'm dead on page 6"

stayed because the "there is scum on my wagon" + <doesn't even know who is voting him because otherwise he would know that he isn't evicted> = manufactured last words = lying = ?!scum?!

[Green Crayons]

Now do how you would react to seeing a fake D1 quickhammer when you’re scum.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Ico

[Green Crayons]

can you tell me why do those posts you linked in 125 ping you?

didn't like the 180 on rvs to serious in a fingersnap on page 2 or 3 (whatever it was), plus those specific posts felt inorganic

[Green Crayons]

Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.

btw i would suspect scum to deny faking it

bc faking it for a reaction to a reaction test is lol

[Green Crayons]

I already responded. Twice.

[Green Crayons]

I didn’t fake hammer.

Please read the game.

[Green Crayons]

Green Crayons did? He was the first person I was getting some wolf pings on not because of him going after the fake hammer but because I disliked the reasoning/way they worded it.

[Green Crayons]

Oh I see.

[Green Crayons]

Certainly hope not.

[Green Crayons]

an example of how we should use number analysis;

- gypyx is 11th in the draft (a low frequency slot for scum)
- he also chose 11 (a low frequency selection for scum)
- he is also on a doubled up number (an average frequency outcome for scum)

i'd want to be quite confident gypyx is much more likely scum than random if we're to wagon there.

I mean this is fine but don’t know if she was ever really saying let’s elim from top down.

[Green Crayons]

literally just crossing our fingers and following hoopla's plan turns this from mafia into a badly designed logic puzzle

who wants to do this though?

[Green Crayons]

well, one and a half.

you say one and a half

and i say five times

so let's meet in the middle and say it was twice.

[Green Crayons]

literally just crossing our fingers and following hoopla's plan turns this from mafia into a badly designed logic puzzle

who wants to do this though?

FWIW i might be interpreting what you are interpreting to be the thread's interpretation of hoopla's plan incorrectly.

[Green Crayons]

way too many good vibes rn

[Green Crayons]

Seems like a particularly confident push over very little. Feels like early scum distancing

yeah sure

weird thing to bring up on page 12

[Green Crayons]

I like, just don't agree with this, especially this line:
"the main players that should be off the table today is the trio of word/crayons/iamausername. the odds of one of these players being scum is so low we'd need overwhelming evidence to take a shot there."

what's the AI point you're making here?

[Green Crayons]

you don't follow my train of thought or...? i mean 313 seemed to be starting a push for certain players over others based on draft, no?

<ignores 220>

what is happening

[Green Crayons]

Oh cool, more pages.

is this just how you're going to play?

[Green Crayons]

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

[Green Crayons]

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

[Green Crayons]

Word/Worst/Hoopla/Grumpy Cat are all good townreads for me. We've posted 16 pages in 2 days and it's super hard for me to not blur past the words to fully get my thoughts in so I might just deal with the fact I'll forever be behind so I can get my thoughts on a page. Reading all this is exhausting and I've played mostly larges! VOTE: Green Crayon

the stated reasons for this vote are wrong and also exceptionally uninteresting, so let's slot you as town for now

[Green Crayons]

Oh cool, more pages.

is this just how you're going to play?

Umlaut isn't the only one who does catch up posts (hi yes I do it too but with multiple posts rather than a single big one), but damn the format just feels like a scum indicative tactic here.

[Green Crayons]

^^^ mech/theory is great scum convo material because it allows them to be productive without doing the hard part of making up cases against town

double bonus if you can suspect a player because they put forward a theory you can poke holes in

[Green Crayons]

Oh cool, more pages.

is this just how you're going to play?

Umlaut isn't the only one who does catch up posts (hi yes I do it too but with multiple posts rather than a single big one), but damn the format just feels like a scum indicative tactic here.

Just so I'm not a complete ass, here, because Umlaut has suggested IRL reasons for not being as active as he might otherwise be (so the inactivity itself isn't AI). There's a sense of Umlaut's catch-up posts are more like detached observations rather than any attempt to really engage. No engagement is safer for scum because that never requires devolving into argument where you might actually have to put rubber to the road and evict a towns person based on the back of your bad reasons.

[Green Crayons]

"productive" as in posting something that looks substantive and contributing to the game wincon but isn't scumhunting

[Green Crayons]

lol

[Green Crayons]

what is even with that question

[Green Crayons]

Okay.

[Green Crayons]

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

why do I not fit in the list?

you and tw are town leans so are exempt from the pool

[Green Crayons]

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

is it bad that I don't think either of these players would avoid the temptation to chomp down on number theory nonsense as either alignment but statistically desperately want you to be right?

By my own estimate 2/3 of them are possibly town so it’s not exactly the AI silver bullet.

[Green Crayons]

I have an issue that I have a too many scum reads this game, which usually doesn't happen to me

I’m feeling pretty numb on alignment so looking forward to these Hot Takes.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Umlaut

[Green Crayons]

His Ico vote is scummy.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Umlaut

VOTE: Umlaut

His Ico vote is scummy.

[Green Crayons]

hth this is a good vote and there should be more of it

[Green Crayons]

can we consolidate on either Marquis or Umlaut and have a real bandwagon competition going?

[Green Crayons]

Yes.

Yes We Can. (tm)

So let's do it.

[Green Crayons]

Would be weird to bribe you to not vote yourself.

[Green Crayons]

Looking forward to that beautiful VC.

[Green Crayons]

Clarify “hot zone”.

I approve of the wrestling commentator prose.

[Green Crayons]

top four picks.

Also curious you who viewed as the top four.

[Green Crayons]

Yes but there's obviously a bandwagon competition going on rn.

Are you purposefully ignoring that, or just accidentally?

[Green Crayons]

if u have any more, feel free to ask; just let me answer on another game first

Whose your current town clique?

[Green Crayons]

if u have any more, feel free to ask; just let me answer on another game first

Why is tw obsessed with how others view me?

[Green Crayons]

im here btw, and will answer the questions in short notice

if u have any more, feel free to ask; just let me answer on another game first

Want to bet whether I managed to nab a PR?

[Green Crayons]

if u have any more, feel free to ask; just let me answer on another game first

If there wasn’t this kickin rad marquis/Umlaut head to head, who would you vote for?

[Green Crayons]

tld u = ??

[Green Crayons]

Oh townleaned.


No worries

[Green Crayons]

Hot take I think I’d substitute DDL for Hoopla and throw in username.

Hoopla is pretty NAI imo

[Green Crayons]

I'm having a somewhat childish stubborn "You can't make me vote Marquis" reaction just because I dislike the suggestion that I'm

supposed

to, even though I would be happy to vote them on the merits if not for that pressure.

I'll get over myself and

VOTE: Marquis

(L-1)

(Or at least I'll make the vote and internally grumble about it and try to get over myself later)

It’s not that you’re supposed to, and tbh I wouldn’t care if you said “this is dumb and I’m not participating”

What DID catch my attention is you asking to be bribed in a way that ignores that tw is in the marquis/umlaut mindset

IDK I’m still thinking about it not sure really what it means

[Green Crayons]

Yes but there's obviously a bandwagon competition going on rn.

Are you purposefully ignoring that, or just accidentally?

Yes I am obviously aware of it. Do you think I'm obligated to vote Marquis because I'm the other leading wagon at the moment?

Like who did you think tw would bribe you to vote?

[Green Crayons]

It’s not that you’re supposed to, and tbh I wouldn’t care if you said “this is dumb and I’m not participating”

What DID catch my attention is you asking to be bribed in a way that ignores that tw is in the marquis/umlaut mindset

IDK I’m still thinking about it not sure really what it means

It was a dumb joke and I thought kind of an obvious one.

Yes. It was obvious that you were making a joke. I remind you that this is also mafia, and a joke is not always a joke and also jokes are suspicious.

[Green Crayons]

I still dislike this but it might just be my style of play then anything. I don't plan on hammering though!

Explain more about what you don’t like. Name names.

[Green Crayons]

Clarify “hot zone”.

a mysterious blend of the different numerical forces underpinning our game.

believe me, these puppies are hot!

Sounds very conspiracy theory. Count me in.



Get it.


Hilarious I know.

[Green Crayons]

rapidly Dying of Anxiety

Name of your first doom metal band.

[Green Crayons]

Are counterwagons that build themselves quickly scum or town usually?

Who was the counterwagon, here?

[Green Crayons]

Lmk how, to you, is Marq possibly scum discounting his “abysmal play so far”?

[Green Crayons]

am i correct to think that from town!me pov there's like... a ++rand chance marquis is scum (and not looking at his abysmal play so far)

because he's done literally nothing and keeps promising content that never comes?

and pivoting back to "oh they're ++rand scum because numbers and they're abysmal because they're lurking" makes my stomach sink

is that not... why we're wagoning them?

One of these is not like the other.

[Green Crayons]

Explain to me your first of those posts which I don’t understand.

[Green Crayons]

Is Marquis V/LA?

[Green Crayons]

you should claim

[Green Crayons]

Using vig early game is generally anti-town, because it's more likely to be used against town than scum.

I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to using it to get rid of a lurker elim, but that would be A50 himself, so I don't see the benefit in using it now and see plenty of risk.

Maybe

if we get a flip, then some serious discussion about associatives, I'd be much more comfortable with that +1 kill.

At this point, the thing that bothers me about A50 is the scummy replace out. I don't think an elim based on that alone is bad, but I'm also not particularly sold on it being the best option.

[Green Crayons]

That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).

[Green Crayons]

So what's the case?

Interested in this synopsis tbh

[Green Crayons]

okay.

[Green Crayons]

So who are your top vig candidates?

[Green Crayons]

The only reason why the slot avoided a claim is because of lurkerdom. Persistence in not playing isn’t an excuse to not claim.

[Green Crayons]

1. No

2. It’s Ico’s baby so he should probably answer.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: A50

I’m okay with this after the discusso re PR claim.

[Green Crayons]

Or just elim A50

[Green Crayons]

anyone else smell the magnificent cologne of desperation?

I totally forgot how this setup worked, but now I remember. Nobody tell me what to do. Not whom to shoot and certainly not WHEN to do it. It's not just the redirector (who -btw- could interfere even if I was directed to shoot town, just to make it appear like I didn't follow the direction thus shading both myself and the original target). On top of the redirector there's the possibility of a 1-shot Commuter, a Roleblocker, a Scum Doctor or a JK, all of which can interfere with my shot.

So, let's keep it at this: I may or may not shoot tonight, and if I do it's someone of my own choice. That way if a redirector exists and wants to be on me the other TPR are guaranteed their results to -at least- be on their intended targets. If Scum want to block me then other TPRs will have their actions going through... etc, and there's no guarantee that I;m even going to shoot at all, so their redirection/RB'ing is a waste (especially the redirection which is 1-shot)

Like, I wouldn’t call it desperation, but 942 does seem like purposeful attempt to Be Present and Productive after A50 did a whole “I’m not going to do a lot of effort” intro.

[Green Crayons]

Did we just witness an honest to god scum slip?

VOTE: gypyx

[Green Crayons]

The answer is yes. Yes we did. He hasn’t tried to walk it back.

[Green Crayons]

The answer is yes. Yes we did. He hasn’t tried to walk it back.

Thanks for stating the obvious, got anything else to say?

Thank you.

[Green Crayons]

^^^ yeah I would think that town would have done something other than

"WELP"

and then has now said

"yup i'm scum who screwed up, want to fight about it?"


if in some horrible world Gypyx is actually town, he still needs to go but my goodness

w h a t

w h y

[Green Crayons]

congrats, you lied to the town and I will forever want to eliminate you because there's no reason to think that you aren't scum who pulled this to try to look like crafty town

[Green Crayons]

I'm pretty surprised by the number of people taking an obvious shenanigan at face value.

punish all perjurers

ditch all deceivers

[Green Crayons]

While I'm sure someone will pipe up with a OH YEAH WHAT ABOUT THIS SITUATION?!

But town should never lie and if you lie, especially on something this incredibly dumb when pressure starts to build on you, I'm going to yeet you into the sun.

[Green Crayons]

punish all perjurers

ditch all deceivers

I'm quite philosophically opposed to stuff like this. I'd rather kill the person with the highest chance of being scum than the person with the highest chance of being bad, and town lies are fairly common (and not necessarily bad!).

Certainly, occasionally dumb townies offer noticeably bad reactions. And occasionally dumb scum do as well; the question is, which is more likely in the particular scenario. I don't think that 999 could have been intended as a real scumclaim; taken at face value, he'd be claiming scum while under the impression he was not hammered and asking people to unvote, which is nonsensical. So it must have been a poorly considered joke/reaction test.

This is you saying he was trying to be crafty

[Green Crayons]

You want me to NOT take his claim at face value but not go so deeply that it was scum pretending to be town pretending to be scum.

[Green Crayons]

He obviously thinks it’s crafty, regardless of alignment.

[Green Crayons]

It just looks crafty because it’s stupid as hell, regardless of alignment.

[Green Crayons]

Well, exe-2, i think that's enough screwing around

yeah this was a fake reaction once again, logic is that i'm feeling the lynch come anyways so might as well try to do something useful

Thought he was doing something useful


Not a troll

[Green Crayons]

What I meant in 1054 was, if he was trying to look like he was being pro-town with this gambit, he did a really bad job of it, which would have been towny if he'd been aware of it. But I think I do accept your conclusion that he THOUGHT it looked pro-town.

So we basically agree on both of these points.

[Green Crayons]

Just to be clear, my main intent was to pull off something kinda original with the gambit

be less nebulous and more specific

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: A50

[Green Crayons]

Hoopla kill is hella strange bc I was thinking maybe she was a good buddy with her “save the one-shot” theory.

VOTE: umlaut

Claim.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: A50

Why did you switch, Grayons?

Mr. Crayons, I have a query.

Just skipping to that post and the one prior to jog my memory, A50’s posts were scummy, I believe momentum was shifting back to him away from Gy, and it felt like the better option.

[Green Crayons]

The one page prior*

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Gypyx

[Green Crayons]

Initial reaction is that this makes Umlaut solid town.

[Green Crayons]

Looking forward to the explanation of why Rolecop is a high-EV town role in a setup where any alignment can be any role.

So you don’t think some roles are AI?

[Green Crayons]

By nature of the ability to choose, rather than being given out at random.

[Green Crayons]

First I liked his reaction to what I thought was the best case about him around his voting/not voting of Marquis/A50.

Second, his theory that scum picked his attempted PR seems more likely to come from town paranoia.

[Green Crayons]

Looking forward to the explanation of why Rolecop is a high-EV town role in a setup where any alignment can be any role.

So you don’t think some roles are AI?

Obviously I do since the whole basis of my reasoning here is that a role such as Rolecop can be AI. But there are much more direct ways available to learn alignments if you have your pick of roles.

Oh you’re saying just rolecop is NAI?

[Green Crayons]

Second, his theory that scum picked his attempted PR seems more likely to come from town paranoia.

I don’t know if I agree with this theory btw but it definitely seems more from a town who gets stuck on why his PR was taken.

Also, claiming that picking this role is suspicious is real cheeky when Umlaut himself was wanting to pick it. It’s the kind of hypocrisy that seems more town than scum.

[Green Crayons]

Oh I see what you meant by 1297

I thought you meant RC was NAI, but you are questioning the efficiency of picking RC when the roles a RC picks up can be chosen by anyone

[Green Crayons]

My spicy take is that Umlaut and DDL aren’t appealing elim candidates, and I don’t really have anything else to add to this line of conversation.

[Green Crayons]

Also, A50 could have lolhammered Gypyx and fired his shot before dying, and he did not...

Digging my vote more and more.

[Green Crayons]

Gypyx didn’t claim.

Just eliminate him.

[Green Crayons]

Spicy.

[Green Crayons]

Do you did think you were eliminated yesterday, hunh?

[Green Crayons]

So you

[Green Crayons]

Oh hello.

VT here.

[Green Crayons]

A double bus seems doubtful.

[Green Crayons]

lol this game

[Green Crayons]

Can’t wait to vote petapan

[Green Crayons]

I’ll take that bet.

[Green Crayons]

Not convinced S_S is cleared but certainly think he’s a late game elim if we leash per grump target.

[Green Crayons]

Oh I picked cop bc I believe once I played this setup and nobody picked cop and it was lol

[Green Crayons]

Oh I see

[Green Crayons]

Do the #s add up? If you’re scum and in terms of who you clear vs nk/day elim?

[Green Crayons]

Like in terms of we already have enough clears + whoever else you add + we elim from the “no” pool

[Green Crayons]

Righteous

[Green Crayons]

If that’s the case and this game is locked up then I don’t really care if I’m first to go other than I’m not scum and I’m helped sway both the D1 1v1 that had a scum on it and then I’m pretty sure I was a big motivator in the gypyx elim.

[Green Crayons]

Who is the pool for elim?

[Green Crayons]

^^^ I’m on my phone and drinking sorry for being so needy

[Green Crayons]

Hrm. Hrm.

tw did you pocket me hard earlier?

It’s okay if you did. I enjoyed it.

Not very strategic tho since I don’t have a lot of pull with nowadays players.

[Green Crayons]

^^ a lot of effort to not be elimed

[Green Crayons]

I mean at this point scum would play night less to make RB results null.

Or would I guess kill RB then cop?

[Green Crayons]

Or maybe cop and then play nightless lol y’all about horrible

[Green Crayons]

Talk about

[Green Crayons]

I secretly want it to be Ico bc I think I called him scum early game.

[Green Crayons]

That’s tomorrow. Stop living in my future!!!

[Green Crayons]

thanks

[Green Crayons]

so is voting open or?

[Green Crayons]

Please dont end the day without me catching up.

i mean let's have some manners

[Green Crayons]

at this point i just want to make sure everyone's like "yes this plan is town lock" and i'd rather get that locked up on all agreeing that our game is locked up before before we elim

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: DDL

[Green Crayons]

Oh damn just saw my PMs. I was neighborized.

[Green Crayons]

Hurrah. Nice work, town.

[Green Crayons]

okay so next time this setup is played all 3 scum need to pick the same number