Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[Grumpy Cat]

I am Grumpy (Cat). Gypyx is my sworn enemy this game and I will stop at nothing to get him exiled.

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: DrDo

[Grumpy Cat]

not taking the bait i see

good gooood

Could I have some bait?

[Grumpy Cat]

hoopla, I would like one essay on number analysis please.

[Grumpy Cat]

The mofio are less likely to be dubled

[Grumpy Cat]

I'm her biggest fan

[Grumpy Cat]

hoopla, I would like one essay on number analysis please.

Why are you looking away from us Azelf

[Grumpy Cat]

Whoops. I am not self-obsessed, was just an accident

[Grumpy Cat]

We should exile the scummy people, with some bias to targeting people in the top half.

I rolled redirector for example and was pretty far down, so I think we're good.

[Grumpy Cat]

Yeah

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: gypyx

I'll get that one for you

[Grumpy Cat]

I love you Clover

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: DrDoodoo

[Grumpy Cat]

Weird

[Grumpy Cat]

Even Gypyx is looking away from us. Does everyone here have a guilty conscious?? So be it, I shall be the bond that strengths this market.

[Grumpy Cat]

S_S, Gypyx, Green Crayons, Clover town.

[Grumpy Cat]

hoopla, you better be town this game. I'm sleeping GreyIce if you're scum.

[Grumpy Cat]

*sheeping

How embarrassing. My reputation is ruined

[Grumpy Cat]

To ascertain Mafia goes for higher numbers more likely we must first compare if their apparent efficiency fits with the efficiency of simply knowing their other numbers only, and not due to choosing higher numbers

Mafia pick higher numbers! Why they do is irrelevant but I'm going to argue about it anyway.

%_%

[Grumpy Cat]

it gets worse;

draft numbers selected by 42 scum across 14 games;

1 - xxxxxxxx
2 - xxx
3 - xxx
4 - xxxx
5 - xxxx
6 - xxxx
7 - x
8 - xxx
9 - x
10 - xx
11 - x
12 - x
13 - x
15 - x
20 - x
22 - x
42 - xx
413 - x

[Grumpy Cat]

I want motivation of vote
if it was for pressure, it wasnt followed by no direct confrontation to the slot for more content

I did that too, stop ignoring me. It's rude

[Grumpy Cat]

I don't really get what we're even talking about anymore tbh

[Grumpy Cat]

I want motivation of vote
if it was for pressure, it wasnt followed by no direct confrontation to the slot for more content

I did that too, stop ignoring me. It's rude

But seriously, word; aren't like a lot of people doing this?

[Grumpy Cat]

i have a sorta scumread that i'm gonna sit on for a bit more

It better not be me. Sitting on cats is not okay people

[Grumpy Cat]

Townread is a strong word but town impressions yes

[Grumpy Cat]

Hey everyone! Quick question, are wolves normally able to talk about what numbers they want to pick like on other sites? Because if that's the case it's probably 1 max in each group.

This kind of innocent mech question comes from town most of the time, rather than scum faking it,

if

there's valid reason for asking it, which there seems to be here since Clover has played the setup on other sites.

[Grumpy Cat]

Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.

[Grumpy Cat]

Change the "maybe" to "definitely" and replace the ??? with !!!

and you're golden

[Grumpy Cat]

The biggest reason to keep the higher positions around are because some of them will self-resolve by virtue of being NKed. The numbers do not lie though.

I don't see colours, I only see in 1s and 0s.

[Grumpy Cat]

it's clear that the only realistic way it could have happened is if i'm scum.

fwiw i'd also fairly-strongly encourage my team to pair

I would seriously consider it, but only because hoopla is in the game.

(Huge fan btw)

[Grumpy Cat]

it's literally almost completely irrelevant what hoopla is doing with theory rn as long as we are not sheeps.

are you sheeps? or are you... animal-speaking doctors and hats?

I am a cat, guilty as charged

[Grumpy Cat]

aorn i think this is remarkably objectively correct.

Actually not quite. It's not the effort that makes it towny; it's the fact that she's making a big show of pushing an unpopular opinion.

+1

(massive fan btw)

[Grumpy Cat]

even if you are town, how do you know scum players haven't thought about your line, and have players like you in the lobby to provide them with free defense?

independently, I don't buy this line of thinking, and I don't think you should be townread for suggesting it.

really dislike this post. "I don't think you should be townread" in particular is a phrase that feels distinctly scummy to me, there's like an undertone of bitterness to it, like DrDolittle is annoyed that people have correctly identified Hoopla as town for reasons that DrD finds erroneous.
it's like a funhouse mirror version of 'you caught me for the wrong reasons'.

& i feel like S_S has acquitted himself adequately. the post that originally bothered me makes more sense knowing he was describing 67 as a 'plan' and not talking about Hoopla's initial entry. his eagerness to jump into theory discussions where, as scum, he doesn't have to lie about his true feelings is still a little concerning, but he's hardly alone on that front in this game.

VOTE: DrDolittle

I didn't like that post either, but more so because I disagree with the first sentence. The doc is drinking too much paranoia wine.

It doesn't make him scummy though.

[Grumpy Cat]

username

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: Umlaut

I want more riddles

[Grumpy Cat]

Trains

[Grumpy Cat]

Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[Grumpy Cat]

No

[Grumpy Cat]

Town got burned badly in a recent game I was in by a less experienced player doing just that (asking a lot of "questions like these" about mechanics and whether scum could talk during the day etc., purely for the sake of looking town).

Link pl0x

[Grumpy Cat]

No

can I pat you pls
important game related question

yes but it has to be an odd number of times

I hate even numbers

[Grumpy Cat]

Why am I in everyone's townblocs

It makes me feel all vulnerable and unclean

Next person to scumread me is townlocked without mercy

[Grumpy Cat]

Datisi is town btw
Don't know about the duckling yet

VOTE: imusername

[Grumpy Cat]

You've really put me in a conundrum here

just pat me 3.5 times to play it safe

[Grumpy Cat]

Nice

[Grumpy Cat]

hoopla my nuanced read on you is that you are a cake which has 1 candle and shows you are forever 1 year old. Since eternal youth hasn't been invented yet it means your account is controlled by a constantly shifting array of 1 year olds that each spend a year on the account. This also means you are breaking site rules

Reported

[Grumpy Cat]

imusername's takes are too selective. Like, he's taking special care to criticise very specific things which he thinks look good to poke at or are reasonable to. The lack of ~feels~ or big picture takes is generally scum-indicative.

[Grumpy Cat]

Hexagons have an even number of sides >:[[[

[Grumpy Cat]

Ico is ponging me but I can't explain exactly why yet

[Grumpy Cat]

I'm the cat

[Grumpy Cat]

i'm unsure what to make of the gypyx fake-hammer and fake-reaction fiasco.

when you have players acting in a disingenuous way in order to harvest reactions, you risk players responding in kind (which is what gypyx did).

so, now the question shifts from "was gypyx's reaction genuine?", to "was the decision to fake a reaction to a fake hammer town?", which is just too flimsy of a premise to really parse anything meaningful imo.

if pressed, my intuition leans town on gypyx because it's kind of overt and bombastic to respond to a fake hammer with an equally facetious reaction test.

UNVOTE:

while i agree that the reaction was townish, i'm not sure of it was actually a fake hammer

good, me 2

i've found 1 scum already, and i'm working on nr2

not really actually

gypyx is scum

iamasuername is a good wagon for the moment, and hoopla's response to it was... off

i've a couple small townreads, which are based more on gut then anything else

and i've been open about everything so you should have no problem reading me at all

Here's something that can be explained. You unvoted Gypyx because you thought he looked more towny, but now you're back to calling him scum without any Gypyx posts in the intermission.

VOTE: Ico

>:€

[Grumpy Cat]

Speedrunner

[Grumpy Cat]

Slow response time

speedrunner

[Grumpy Cat]

Actually I unironically like the Iconeum wagon, 530 kind of sold me on it and I feel pretty good about both Grumpy and Hoopla for town (GC I'm more eh about but not explicitly scumreading)

VOTE: Iconeum

umlaut what do you think about ico's response 4 or 5 posts after to 530?

oof, DDL, might be town here

INTENSE PINGING

It hurts

Stop

[Grumpy Cat]

Grumpy I challenge you to a Duel Of The Fates!

why has this not been answered

I'm prepping for the battle. I hope you're ready

[Grumpy Cat]

Actually I unironically like the Iconeum wagon, 530 kind of sold me on it and I feel pretty good about both Grumpy and Hoopla for town (GC I'm more eh about but not explicitly scumreading)

VOTE: Iconeum

that 530 is extremely wrong, which i already explained so i'm very much pinged that you are not even talking about my counter to it

VOTE: umlaut

That post is weird for another reason too actually. Umlaut says he likes me for town, but then clarifies he's eh on me but isn't "explicitly scumreading" me. Why does he clarify he's not scumreading me if he just said he liked me for town? Seems like a weird disconnect.

[Grumpy Cat]

Maybe I'm overthinking it

My swimming pool right now is filled with Umlaut, Ico, username

[Grumpy Cat]

They're independent reads

Don't ask for preflip associations pls

[Grumpy Cat]

Not saying Umlaut Ico username is a team. Saying that's who I find scummy

[Grumpy Cat]

Feels fake

Why is Ico a popular push early usually?

[Grumpy Cat]

I know, but the way you called DDL town for it and with the "oof" rubs me the wrong way

It's a ping so idk how else to describe it

[Grumpy Cat]

Give me a town game where you played similar to here

[Grumpy Cat]

Will check later

[Grumpy Cat]

Hmm ok

I think I've scumread Taly for similar tonal reasons and he was town

I like this better rn VOTE: imusername

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: Marquis

No pressure <3

[Grumpy Cat]

But I said no pressure so it's the opposite

Scumslip?

[Grumpy Cat]

Oh were you joking?

[Grumpy Cat]

Fine fine yes there are other reasons. Ones I can't talk about

But I am sure you are scum for that slipup. I'm going to keep you around to find your buddies before I gypyx you

[Grumpy Cat]

Put me down as basically V/LA until the marathon is over

[Grumpy Cat]

Hello, don't replace me please

My game relevant part of this post is:
I'm convinced Dannflor is in this game and has already pocketed me. We must find his alt so that we can launch the deepwolf.

[Grumpy Cat]

I don't have love and feelings. Only grumpiness :[

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: grumpy cat
MS is trying to foster an environment of inclusiveness where everyone can be happy. No grumpiness allowed.

[Grumpy Cat]

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: Marquis

No pressure <3

Any reasons for that vote other than pressure?

hi gypyx do you have thoughts on like anything that's happened

Grumpy is town but other than that i can't get reads

Did I answer that question to your satisfaction? You must've had a reason for asking it.

Being the only person you townbin regardless is rude :[

[Grumpy Cat]

I'm town

haha joke I'm actually grumpy

[Grumpy Cat]

Gypyx looks so scummy at first glance but I'm gonna read what S_S was saying because he says rational stuff sometimes

[Grumpy Cat]

Well, exe-2, i think that's enough screwing around

yeah this was a fake reaction once again, logic is that i'm feeling the lynch come anyways so might as well try to do something useful

Where's your crumb for the fake reaction this time? You had one for the first one

[Grumpy Cat]

He did that fake reaction to the hammer earlier which people thought was kinda towny. Maybe he was hoping for more of the same.

[Grumpy Cat]

Why you been struggling to form reads this game, Gypyx? You're usually very forthcoming and proactive with them (I'm Non Compos Mentis/renaissance if you remember me).

[Grumpy Cat]

Do scumread anyone currently?

[Grumpy Cat]

HmMMMmmMMmMmm

I think scum!Gypyx would actually feel bad for his partners and wouldn't pull a suicidal gambit like this. He wasn't in a terribly dire situation when he pulled the reaction, so soemthing high risk like that is unnecessary even if he thought it'd get him townread. I know I'm basically saying it's too scummy to be scum, buuuuuuut I can see the town/fun-motivation for town!Gypyx doing that.

Actually, having just said that, I remember the VT slip gambit Gypyx pulled when I rolled scum with him...but I think that was a little less risky and has a clear way it rewards towncred, as opposed to whatever this is.

[Grumpy Cat]

Oh, it was a traitor thing

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: a50
i repeat: they are both scum

i'm persuaded by the argument that gypyx-scum would have at least ~some~ level of guilt preventing him from self-destructing in such spectacular fashion. you're directly letting down two teammates who you've been in close quarters with - whereas, as town, you don't really know who you're letting down, so it's easier to not care.

i would bet good money on gypyx being town.

having said all that, i used similar logic to falsely clear him (in mini 2146) based on an action i didn't think scum would make, so he may just be one of those special characters. this one does feel different, though.

This is the main reason I like it a little for town too. He was on 4 votes while Almo was on 5. It's just unnecessary. Why doesn't scum!Gypyx just fake some reads instead? He's capable of doing it as scum.

[Grumpy Cat]

Gypyx got three votes, putting him at L-2, in two pages following the "slip". That's quick.

It was scummy and meant to look scummy though. That isn't a surprise at all.

[Grumpy Cat]

FAITH

[Grumpy Cat]

Why'd you hammer then?

[Grumpy Cat]

Ok

[Grumpy Cat]

I was never sure about that slot but didn't have any stronger scumreads. Marquis siteflaked so that was NAI, and I've seen Almo troll like this as both alignments, so that was also NAI. It was just a lacklustre slot all around, so whatever.

[Grumpy Cat]

oh wait the hoopla numbers thing!! I agree it makes sense but I don't think I've ever been able to read hoopla for shit and she scares me so right now I'd say definitely don't lynch her because it seems pro town but I don't know if I can ever come to a conclusion on that slot

Marquis's lack of any reads whatsoever, and this appearing a little too "oh look how natural and open I am, no way I'm scum" are scum-indicative though, so HOPEFULLY

[Grumpy Cat]

Wait, actually, I've only seen Almo troll to this extent as town. Hmmm

[Grumpy Cat]

Maybe Umlaut is the Tomboy Daughter

[Grumpy Cat]

there's solid reasons to scumread the a50 slot

for me, one of the more convincing ones would be that a vig would not be bored out by the game, from the start. Actively looking for who to shoot, gambit around that, even threaten to shoot players if they don't comply. So much you can do, but being bored out? Hard to believe.

Oh yeah, this is a good point. You have rekindled my belief.

[Grumpy Cat]

Yeah, I was the Port Authority in that game. Was a blast, I got them to guess me as the Tomboy Daughter lol

[Grumpy Cat]

What if I'm just Titus paranoid that I've been fooled again?

[Grumpy Cat]

Official Vote Count 1.12

Almost50(7) - Grumpy Cat, Hoopla, word321, iamausername, Green Crayons, the worst, DrDolittle

(E-1)

Gypyx(3) - Datisi, Iconeum, Umlaut
Umlaut(1) - Almost50
Dr Dolittle(1) - Clover Ebi
Something_Smart(1) - Gypyx

Not Voting(1) - Something_Smart
With 14 alive, elimination requires 8 votes

Day ends in (expired on 2020-09-13 23:00:00)

Mod notes:
none

Okay, gonna do some VCA here.
Looks like we've got 7 voters on Almost50. That's a pretty big wagon and usually those are on town if you look at percentages of wagons that flip town vs. scum. So, drawing from that and concluding Almost50 is town, it would mean the voters are more likely to be scum.
At the forefront of the wagon we have Grumpy Cat. Pushing a town wagon is usually very scummy, but since they're doing it while Grumpy, there may be some emotional factors at play. I'm willing to give them a pass.
Next up we've got Hoopla (tremendous fan btw), the second vote is a nice comfy spot for scum to park on, so she could be scum.
Then, we have word321, as I'm sure we're all aware, the 3rd spot of a wagon is the one most often occupied by scum. This is 80% scum if Almost50 is town.
I lost track after this as my monitor's pixels are dead on this side of the screen.

Instead, I will move on to the other interesting wagon we have today; the Not Voting wagon.
Something_Smart is the sole occupier of this wagon, and it is a common scum strat to vanity vote your partner in an attempt to distance. My prediction is that Something_Smart and Not Voting are scum together, and hoping they can glide through the day while in this soft embrace. I see right through you, Aa.

Conclusion: [Hoopla, word321, Not Voting, Something_Smart] is the scumteam.

[Grumpy Cat]

It feels like there's something I'm not in on right now.

[Grumpy Cat]

Oh, they're both 1s. IC lol

[Grumpy Cat]

Hoopla, I was your biggest fan and will never forget you. That kill surely implies a scummo in the top 3.

Umlaut didn't vote his counterwagon of Marquis (scum) until it was L-2 and there was no alternative. Then, later on, he pushed Gypyx over Almo. Starting here.

VOTE: Umlaut

[Grumpy Cat]

Hoopla was one of the few defending Gypyx btw. I don't think a scumteam of 2 including Gypyx opt to kill one of his only defenders over the top spots holding PRs.

[Grumpy Cat]

Official Vote Count 1.6

Umlaut(3) - Iconeum, Datisi, Green Crayons
Iconeum(2) - Hoopla, Umlaut
Dr Dolittle(2) - iamausername, Clover Ebi
Datisi(2) - the worst, word321
Gypyx(1) - Marquis
Something_Smart(1) - Gypyx
iamausername(1) - DrDolittle
Marquis(1) - Grumpy Cat

Not Voting(1) - Something_Smart
With 14 alive, elimination requires 8 votes

Day ends in (expired on 2020-09-13 23:00:00)

Mod notes: Iconeum is V/LA until 9/8

VOTE: umlaut wheeee

Eh, this points away from him though. Marquis isn't a wagon and doesn't need to bus his scum buddy when he's already under serious pressure.

[Grumpy Cat]

DrDolittle 8 - Townread this doc
Something_Smart 9 - Townread this Aa
Umlaut 21 - He's iffy. His actions point to him being partnered with Marquis. Marquis's actions point to him not being partnered.
Marquis 1 - DEAD
Datisi 1 - Town
Clover Ebi 3 - Hoopla was with me on him townslipping. Less likely to kill Hoopla.
the worst 3 - ???
Hoopla 5 - :[
Iconeum 5 - ???
Grumpy Cat 11 - :]
Gypyx 11 - Hoopla is a very strange kill for him to make.
word321 4 - ???
iamausername 4 - ???
Green Crayons 4 -???

Thoughts so far. Need to look back at the wagon dynamics for the others.

[Grumpy Cat]

You're a scumduck

[Grumpy Cat]

Interesting, so meaning that implies either Gypyx is scum, or no one active and with a good grasp on the gamestate was in the scum PT, since they're more likely to give that advice?

[Grumpy Cat]

Gypyx looks so scummy at first glance but I'm gonna read what S_S was saying because he says rational stuff sometimes

I'm about in this boat

but i dont really understand what S_S is saying so I'll unvote so he can explain himself UNVOTE: lest a50 does a quick hammer

Towny post for denying the quickhammer possibility.

nah actually

VOTE: Almost50

i'm not exactly going to shed any tears for Gypyx if that is the way we end up going, but i really think this has a better chance of hitting scum

Pivot vote which shifts the momentum. +town

VOTE: A50

Why did you switch, Grayons?

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: Umlaut

Let me get that for you.

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: gypyx

ok i know yall gonna yell at me for this but i doubt that umlaut ain't gonna count the votes on him and i feel like this Very Bad Feeling in my stomach about this so i'd rather not E-1 bc umlaut will prob be claiming anyways

if he refuses to claim at E-2 hit me up

The main advantage to these hammer tests is because scum sometimes try and fake a reaction thinking they were hammered which can look real scummy, but fair that Umlaut probably isn't that type of player.

[Grumpy Cat]

I like today Grumpy Cat a lot more than I liked yesterday Grumpy Cat.

Idk maybe it's just that I'm actually reading his posts but yesterday he was like a PoE null-scum but he's decently towny now.

How dare you

[Grumpy Cat]

VOTE: A50

Why did you switch, Grayons?

Mr. Crayons, I have a query.

[Grumpy Cat]

I know, reading your posts is the gravest offense.

But sometimes these things have to be done.

YEAH?? WELL I READ ALL OF YOUR POSTS IN FULL SO TAKE THAT

[Grumpy Cat]

One one hand I don't see how Role Cop is +EV over regular Cop, but on the other hand; scum picking Role Cop over Jailkeeper/1-shot vig/Roleblocker/Vengeful for first pick is very unusual. Doc is

probably

town if he can explain his EV thing.

[Grumpy Cat]

Is it even a cliche scum pick though? Isn't 1-shot vig/vengeful/JK/RB better for scum?

[Grumpy Cat]

I guess picking JK/RB has problems later on when people start claiming to be roleblocked and people start asking what you picked.

I thought of something though and I'm curious to see if DDL says it.

[Grumpy Cat]

Yooooooooooooooooo

[Grumpy Cat]

I was drugged and slept for nearly a week

[Grumpy Cat]

You think the worst had a spicy role? Just you guys wait until you see mine

[Grumpy Cat]

are you about to cc me

It's insane. People will have to launch me after they see it, it's too powerful to be kept alive.

[Grumpy Cat]

I hope you're all ready for this. Actually gonna blow your minds

[Grumpy Cat]

Sorry, wanted to build some suspense.

I'm.the neighbouriser. Targeted Gypyx N1 and it didn't go through, so can confirm S_S's block.

Considering I was mostly townread, scum!me would probably make the kill as scum, and since S_S saw me as nullscum, he probably thought that.
His target makes 500% more sense coming from town rather than scum.

[Grumpy Cat]

I butcher the sentences. The point hope came across.

[Grumpy Cat]

Goddamit, I was so close to picking cop considering it dropped down really far last game, but I thought other people would think similarly and also pick it... but nope.

[Grumpy Cat]

Oh, nice lol

Is there any way to save you today? Doesn't look like it.

[Grumpy Cat]

Username, don't confirm or deny whether or not you still have hour shot, and go on Datisi tonight.

[Grumpy Cat]

The game's a lot more interesting with a petapan green check. Is atill thought Clover was town but I could see people starting to suspect him. The game could actually still be not easy depending on how hard scum's deepwolfed.

[Grumpy Cat]

I don't think that's necessary anymore tbh. I think it's more valuable to let S_S to target whoever he wants to try and roleblock the kill
He's very likely town based on targeting me N1. Unless he thought I could be a wildcard cop who grabbed it?????

[Grumpy Cat]

Damn, sorry. It seemed like Datisi had suffered enough waiting for me to claim, I didn't want to put him through that again.

I can confirm Umlaut is jailkeeper though. He told me in the PT he wasn't planning on claiming it yet, but guess he changed his mind.

[Grumpy Cat]

My bet's on Green Crayons

[Grumpy Cat]

My bet's on Ico

[Grumpy Cat]

Nice

[Grumpy Cat]

I'm picking 3 with Hoopla next time