Open 802: Jungle Oligarchy [Game Over]

[DeasVail]

Hello old friends and new friends!

[DeasVail]

Hopefully this will go better than our last two attempts

Vaguely positive natural feelings from this response? MURDERCAT in general feels active and the right amount of comfortable for this early on, he can be town.

Hello old friends and new friends!

Hello! you're at least 40% of the reason I signed up for this.


So something to keep in mind for this setup is that there are

five

scum. If you're town, in your typical Mini Normal you've got a 1/4 chance of randomly hitting scum, but in this setup those numbers are 5/12 instead. There's a whole lot of scum motivation being pushed around on every page compared to normal.

I'd wager Taly is more likely town than anything, with both scumteams contributing to the wagon somewhere.

VOTE: Titus
You clearly didn't care much about Taly being at E-1 considering you didn't remove your vote.

But the big question is.... are you one of the 7/12 town?

[DeasVail]

I had a townread on Kylne until his italics post.

I liked the italics post

[DeasVail]

deasvail, i was just thinking about you

Should I be concerned?

[DeasVail]

You are both a bard and a mage!

[DeasVail]

That makes me feel a little guilty honestly

[DeasVail]

VOTE: PlusJOYED

(Slightly edited vote formatting for the benefit of the automatic vote counter

- Um

)

[DeasVail]

VOTE: PLUSJoyed

... Go on.

Lots of focus on associations which just feels like empty analysis especially in a setup like this.

Also, there's a list of players in this game [Yourself/PLUSJoyed/JacksonVirgo/ORAM] who just have given me a feeling of emptiness and have not really formed an impression on me which currently places you all in my "scum suspects" list.

[DeasVail]

Apologies for my absence over the last day. I will have more to say in a few hours from now.

[DeasVail]

What do you think about Titus this game, Deas ?

I like her.

There's a risk that my read is strongly influenced by games that I played many years ago where Titus was scum (and very different from how she is playing here), but her approach to posting at the moment feels very town to me.
Posts I especially like are 277 and the persistence in pushing PlusJOYED about the contradictory post.

[DeasVail]

DV, are association tells ever useful to find in this setup?

Yes, and I do think that these sorts of things are worth keeping in mind, but I think that they can also be very premature and a useful way for scum to post thoughts on the game without too much investment or commitment.

[DeasVail]

Townreads for me are currently: clidd, Titus, iama

I am also considering townreads on Taly and Marashu and am less interested in PlusJoyed as scum than I was previously

UNVOTE: PlusJOYED

I am a bit skeptical about MURDERCAT and therefore the townreads of him. His posting has this way of making me feel like he's really thinking about how he is coming across with each post and I was actually interested in Marashu thinking that Murdercat was scum.
(And would therefore actually be quite interested in hearing what Marashu thinks about this now!)

I can actually relate to a lot of Titus' thoughts on Klyne. The posting feels like a front, a facade of sorts. This could be explained by Klyne wishing to use this account to have that particular style but there's certainly nothing particularly town to me about the slot so far.

Perhaps of anyone in the game right now, ORAM's posting feels the most easily made by scum.

[DeasVail]

im down to vote just about anyone
tbh without claims and multiball im down to kill just about anyone so we can start getting some actual info. Don't wanna kill jackson, murder, klyne or iamusername I tr them.

You do realize how contradictory this is right?

Third time I am asking

PlusJOYED

.

what do you mean
im saying I don't really have any strong scum reads

Your posts since my vote didn’t really fit my impression that you were trying to look town

[DeasVail]

Yeah but your TRs are bad

How do you know? :O

[DeasVail]

Sorry plus, I quoted the wrong post

[DeasVail]

You also seem upset about people townreading iama. Are you jealous?

[DeasVail]

That could change at any time though!

[DeasVail]

Hmm okay

VOTE: ORAM

[DeasVail]

Oh

[DeasVail]

Bulge I’m sad that you appear to be scum here

[DeasVail]

It feels like no one is interested in pushing the game forward to be honest but I'm glad you are here now at least. Hopefully we get a replacement with some energy because currently the leading wagon is accomplishing nothing.

I think things will pick up once we have a replacement!

[DeasVail]

I have posts I want to reply to saved but since

DV

is most recent here, I'll focus on them

DV, are association tells ever useful to find in this setup?

Yes, and I do think that these sorts of things are worth keeping in mind, but I think that they can also be very premature and a useful way for scum to post thoughts on the game without too much investment or commitment.

Unless

DV

is very subtly defending

Titus

(which I doubt), I don't think this POV is voiced by scum in a setup like this. Want to see how true

DV

holds to this line of thought.

Also

DV

, are you meta'ing

Bulge

, or is your scumread there based on in-thread posts?

[quote="In

Townreads for me are currently: clidd, Titus, iama

I am also considering townreads on Taly and Marashu and am less interested in PlusJoyed as scum than I was previously

UNVOTE: PlusJOYED

I am a bit skeptical about MURDERCAT and therefore the townreads of him. His posting has this way of making me feel like he's really thinking about how he is coming across with each post and I was actually interested in Marashu thinking that Murdercat was scum.
(And would therefore actually be quite interested in hearing what Marashu thinks about this now!)

I can actually relate to a lot of Titus' thoughts on Klyne. The posting feels like a front, a facade of sorts. This could be explained by Klyne wishing to use this account to have that particular style but there's certainly nothing particularly town to me about the slot so far.

Perhaps of anyone in the game right now,

ORAM's posting feels the most easily made by scum.

Breakdown your thoughts here?

Hey Taly,

Re: The Bulge, the read is not based on meta. I actually haven’t played a mafia game with Bulge in a very long time. I thought that the in-thread posts felt uninspired and like scum going through the motions. I am still processing the response to my post, but I’m weighing up the possibility that it was scum trying to come up with an apparently laid back response.

I don’t have much to expand on in regards to ORAM right now. A lot of the time the way I read people is working out how well their play aligns with what I would expect from scum (often through an absence of town indicators more than specific scum indicators).
There are actually some specific things from ORAM that concern me, but I would rather wait for replacements before going too deep into that.

[DeasVail]

Who is your top TR?

it might still be Plus, it might be DeasVail. i'm pretty sold on both of them as town at this point.

This is really *poker face*

Is there a long-standing history between you three in past matches?

Why is it *poker face*?

[DeasVail]

To anyone replacing in, I promise it’s not that bad!

[DeasVail]

Thanks clidd. I have some thoughts from a theory standpoint, but will let iama respond first

[DeasVail]

*inhale*
hi murdercat! hi titus! hi username! hi bulge! hi plus! hi deas! hi clidd! hi baltar! hi other people i don't know!

(actually that's a lie, i did play with taly once as well! hi taly!)

catchup at some point when i wake up / have coffee / finish class. if there's anything important i Need to Look At Sooner, someone lemme know.

What is your favourite way to drink coffee?

[DeasVail]

ORAM (4): Battle Mage, DeasVail, iamausername, The Bulge
Klyne (3): Titus, Taly, clidd
Titus (2): Klyne, MURDERCAT
Taly (1): PlusJOYED
Battle Mage (1): ORAM
Klick (1): Marashu

BM hyprocrite scum now replacing, DV ineffectual ? near replacement, iamausername hypocrite, The Bulge replacement who saw how boring the game was and gave up

Great wagon, full of star players

Odd way to motivate the town Klyne

[DeasVail]

Okay

I'm still very concerned by ORAM's posting alignment-wise. His posts in general feel very careful to explain everything that he's doing, which combined with over-appeasement in 284 (it's good if people vote for me because it means they'll be taking sides!) feels like scum putting in that extra effort to be a "good townie".

I can't say I'm overly concerned about VP Baltar right now though, and the scumread on the slot has weakened.

--

Reads update otherwise:

My reads on Murdercat, iama and clidd have strengthened towards town.
Titus townread has weakened (mostly due to a large gap in content and so my town-feelings on Titus are less strong relative to the rest of the game)

My possible scum pile right now includes: VP Baltar, Bulge, Battle Mage, Klyne, Klick
Alternate scum: Datisi, PlusJOYED, Taly
(Above reads not in order of strength)

UNVOTE: VP Baltar
VOTE: Klyne

[DeasVail]

Klyne just seems all hot air to me and little in the way of organic substance. It just all seems very rah rah whatever works and I’m looking forward to seeing how they respond to votes.

[DeasVail]

It just all seems very rah rah whatever works

What's giving you that vibe?

Going from complaining about the lack of cooperation in post 418 to over the top negativity re: the people on your slot’s wagon in post 429 is an example.

[DeasVail]

I don’t know Klyne, I’m still not really feeling it

[DeasVail]

Klyne is.. Klyne? hardest slot to read, but something about his WIM and crazy behavior tells me that it would be stressful to emulate something like that as scum.

My concern is that in some ways it would be easier to have that kind of persona as that is what one is doing as scum essentially. Creating a persona

[DeasVail]

I think the fact is that there is a lot of scum here and my goal for today is only to get one of them. There are reads that I'm still fuzzy on, and perhaps against my better judgement I am doubting my scumread on VP Baltar's slot, but I just don't really see Klyne as a town player here. I don't get any sense that they are actually trying to progress the town rather than post stuff and show off with their persona

[DeasVail]

I think the fact is that there is a lot of scum here and my goal for today is only to get one of them. There are reads that I'm still fuzzy on, and perhaps against my better judgement I am doubting my scumread on VP Baltar's slot, but I just don't really see Klyne as a town player here. I don't get any sense that they are actually trying to progress the town rather than post stuff and show off with their persona

It's not my fucking job and you need to stop making it

Even when I do try to, constantly I get persona persona persona persona persona attitude personality persona

DON'T YOU GUYS FUCKING

READ

POSTS ANYMORE? WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING? IF YOU HAVE

A PROBLEM

WITH WHAT I AM SAYING

NOT

HOW

I AM SAYING IT

THEN WE COULD GET SOMEWHERE

How things are said is probably more often alignment-indicative than the content itself

[DeasVail]

hello everyone! I'm new to this site, but not to mafia in general, so I should know what I'm doing! I'll catch up after I finish some work, btw

Very glad to have you here galaxii

[DeasVail]

I think VP has moved to a townread for me

[DeasVail]

Happens to the best of us

[DeasVail]

when i said "now i think deas is scum too" i was thinking his way/reasons of pushing klyne are like, Bad

What don't you like about it?

I must admit there's some degree of trying to come up with make-sensey reasons for what is mostly just a feeling but eh

[DeasVail]

piping hot take: i was right on battle mage, galaxii is scum who's struggling to come up with content

I could see it

[DeasVail]

Klyne, galaxii and Taly are all people that I would def vote for over Titus at this stage. Maybe others too but it is hard to keep track of who's here and who's not

[DeasVail]

VOTE: galaxii

Works for me

[DeasVail]

<3

[DeasVail]

Klyne, galaxii and Taly are all people that I would def vote for over Titus at this stage. Maybe others too but it is hard to keep track of who's here and who's not

are you still townreading Titus?

ish

[DeasVail]

Actually

I can't commit to that even if I tried to

AVATAR STAYS THOUGH

FEELIN CUTE

LOOKIN CUTE

might delete later?

[DeasVail]

I feel like shaking things up and probably being stupid.

VOTE: Plusjoyed

What makes you feel that this is shaking things up?

Also I hope taly is okay

[DeasVail]

best bet for a partner voting his mate for the cred is within Deas/Iamausername/clidd, and we've already established clidd is town actually trying to play the game so that laves iamausername/Deas

So then we wonder if Deas is on the list

What does this mean?

[DeasVail]

Okay I also very much agree with murdercat-mafia vibes

[DeasVail]

I'm honestly still not seeing in Klyne what other people seem to be seeing in Klyne. What there is actually town?

Taly and PlusJOYED are people who didn't give me super town vibes while there were posting and their absence unfortunately makes it easier for me to have them in my PoE pool for now.

Titus beginning to suspect me is I think a good sign for her alignment, and I think particularly indicates non-werewolf. Her posting also makes sense to me in a way that I moreso expect from Titus as town.

I feel pretty solid about clidd and iama as town still.

Honestly any of Datisi, VP Baltar and Bulge could still be scum imo despite generally positive vibes.

[DeasVail]

I'm in for that

VOTE: Klyne

[DeasVail]

What's the case on DV? I see their name but can't for the life of me recall why he is a wolf. Sparknotes version please

That's the case on DV. DV is lurking, sheeping, and whiteknighting me. He thinks I have been town supposedly the whole time. Even today, he says suspecting me is a good look. Yet, what has he done to progress the game in another direction. Absolutely nothing.

Then, if I do flip, he can coast on "I told you so".

on the topic of lurking and sheeping, I seriously think that there has become so much focus on making a large number of frequent posts because ??? (which is not very useful imo) and so much importance placed on having unique opinions when sometimes actually working together and agreeing with someone is a much more productive use of time.

You should know that I wouldn't rely on "I told you so" as a plan for being a townread. And what more would you expect from me when it comes to progressing the game in another direction?

[DeasVail]

Taly I want you to be town here but I am sadly not feeling the obvious town-vibes that I have felt from you in previous games. I know that you probably can't give this game you're all right now and that's okay but I want to start a conversation.

[DeasVail]

I don’t have the exact game on my mind right now Taly but I remember there being a game once upon a time where you were obvtown. It is not super relevant to me reading you but I appreciate your acknowledgment that you are not outside your scumrange.

I also have reservations about your townreads, particularly VP and Klyne. VP is not someone I am planning to pursue right now but maybe in the near future

[DeasVail]

Why do you need a case on me? Do you have an opinion without one?

[DeasVail]

Taly I want you to be town here but I am sadly not feeling the obvious town-vibes that I have felt from you in previous games.

I know that you probably can't give this game you're all right now and that's okay but I want to start a conversation

.

Why are you excusing Taly's behavior?

Why do you "know" Taly can't give this game her best?

This is a little intense

[DeasVail]

I am not going to vote yet but I am happy with plusjoyed getting votes

[DeasVail]

i'm not saying that Plus wouldn't act like this as scum but i want y'all to know that i have seen him act exactly like this as town and i'm not a fan of this shift.

i guess his execution might be necessary in the long run, because i am not confident enough in my townread of his early play to be happy with him surviving endgame. but it still feels like a cop out right now.

gut feel from the last couple of pages has town stocks for clidd rising, town stocks for DV falling

this is actually useful to know, as someone who hasn't played with plus before.

Why do you feel that Bulge is a better option here?

[DeasVail]

also i just realized i don't get his progression from "baltar is a townread" (665) to "positive vibes but can be scum" (895) to whatever 932 is, deas could you elaborate how/why you went through these?

*also* also i see you haven't answered first part of taly's 935 and i realize i'm also curious about that so?

@deasvail

Thanks for pointing me to this post Datisi, apologies!

My read on VP is a bit confused in my own head I think. ORAM was a bit of a pet scumread for me which VP immediately had me doubting after his replace-in (I try to be as mindful as I can be of being too influenced by confirmation bias). However, over the course of the game since then, I ultimately do not feel there is anything strong convincing me that VP is town. There appears to be a generally friendly approach to the game but despite VP’s claims that he is so obvtown it hurts, I can definitely see his posts coming from a place of scum wanting to look good and be friendly with anyone, but not actually caring that much about getting reads right, as there seems to be a lack of ~something~ that would indicate VP is actually trying to solve.

However I also have to consider my own bias of being uncomfortable that my scumreads were mostly inactive people and perhaps overcompensating for this, hence why I do not want to pursue VP right now.

[DeasVail]

I've been active for most of the game. My recent days have been shit though because my work has been busy and I have not closely read some big chunks.

Do you see me as an inactive player DV?

On the contrary actually.

I have been worried that I could be trying too hard to suspect you, due to being uncomfortable with my scumreads being low-activity players

[DeasVail]

I think I’m going to just vote Plus? More in the interest of keeping things moving than anything else

[DeasVail]

that was supposed to say slightly*.

while you're here, what's your read on me, other than the ~positive vibes but could be scum~ box?

I think you are town

[DeasVail]

My scumreads currently are VP Baltar and Klyne (probable werewolves) and MURDERCAT (probable mafia)

I am no longer comfortable with PlusJOYED/IV slot being lynched.

I like Ahsoka's replace in, and I will have more on my scumreads soon.

[DeasVail]

Also apologies

[DeasVail]

Klyne:

In reviewing Klyne's posts over the course of the game I just can't follow any kind of logical reads process.

There's a lot of BRAVADO, such as their interactions with Titus, and even their brief periods of ~sorting~ such as 805, but it seems very inconsistent to me. From 807 there is a vote on PlusJOYED because of an "offensive" ISO which Klyne appears to sit on despite agreeing with different reads from Titus in 909 and alternating between demonstrative suspicion of Titus and thinking she might be town. And all this time Klyne just stays voting PlusJOYED and is clearly uncomfortable with things moving in a different direction in 990 and 1044.

--

VP Baltar:

I briefly highlight my concerns on ORAM in 558. And in reviewing Baltar's posting, there is a distinct lack of what I'd expect from town truly trying to sort the game. I think the key difference between scum and town in a setup like this is that while it may be easier for scum to "scumhunt" because there are other scum to find, there is less pressure associated with it, and generally more importance placed on how they look. I think that the resistance to change with the PlusJOYED wagon is alarming in a similar way to Klyne because VP is expressing resistance to scumreads on me due to me being possible mis-elim bait however seems resistant to the idea of the IV slot being the same, despite a real lack of expressed reasoning behind this read in the thread (978, 982).

I also believe 933 is totally fake, with it being really inconsistent with how he has responded to suspicion otherwise. I think he's trying too hard here to appear confident in his own towniness, probably because he's not town.

--

MURDERCAT:

Posting is generally very superficial and it's becoming more obvious imo as the game goes on. Generally helpful-looking posts and appeasement. I don't have time to go into more detail on this right now but I agree with the growing suspicion towards MURDERCAT this day-phase.

[DeasVail]

No reason to take a last minute flyer on a dicey counter wagon

What is so dicey about the counter-wagon though? I don't understand why this would be something scum-you wouldn't do.

[DeasVail]

why would she be mafia here? If she's anything, she's a wolf.

How much of the game have you read?

Seems like a weird discred to me

[DeasVail]

I don't think you actually believe this point, or you are not great at playing scum.

weird point to try and make here

[DeasVail]

@DV...why did you single out my joke about being town as being "fake" when IV has made several (four at least) 'im so town' posts since entering the game?

After ISOing IV, I'm not so sure a PlusJoy yeet was wrong.

because yours felt more unnatural and inconsistent with your other posting to me

[DeasVail]

what made you change your mind here?

Part of what made me comfortable with Plus votes is that I thought that them remaining in the game while offering up nothing and barely contributing was more indicative of scum than town, however it has been shown here that this is something that can happen with Plus as town and that Plus has tried harder than this as scum before. I by no means believe that the meta is conclusive but it causes me doubt because it does invalidate to some degree the reasons why I thought Plus might be scum.

IV's entrance to the thread is not clear to me alignment-wise but the "I'm town I'm town I'm town" style stuff actually has me leaning town rather than scum. I would guess that scum-IV would go for a more subtle approach to looking town rather than just stating it, especially under that amount of pressure. It doesn't actually seem inauthentic to me, but I am prepared to be wrong.

PEdit: VP I'm not sure what else you would have expected from a reply to that question. "But IV did it!" comes across as whiny and IV's posting is obviously under very different circumstances?

[DeasVail]

PEdit: VP I'm not sure what else you would have expected from a reply to that question. "But IV did it!" comes across as whiny and IV's posting is obviously under very different circumstances?

No, it shows you're reaching and I'm trying to determine if you're doing it out of genuine game solving, or just thinking I was a bit of a target because I was semi-absent this week compared to my game entrance. Unfortunately, I'm on vacation as of Friday, and not such as easy person to take pot shots at now.

Hey I’m just saying that I suspect you of being scum. It seems to have really gotten a bee in your bonnet?

Also Datisi, I don’t really agree with the basis of your IV read and don’t really buy the replace-in theory, but appreciate where it’s coming from.
I am interested in why you don’t think I’m trying to influence the day’s elimination though. If you assume I’m town, I’ve presented my scumreads and basic reasoning for them. I’ve explained why I don’t think IV is the right direction for today (which you disagree with in the same post as saying I’m not doing anything to convince people into voting with me - I mean, people need to be convinced out of IV first) and I’m engaged in a conversation with VP who I’m still working out as one of my scumreads.

[DeasVail]

UNVOTE: Klyne
VOTE: VP Baltar

Let's make this day wild

[DeasVail]

actually that might be controversial right now

I think this is best

UNVOTE: VP Baltar
VOTE: MURDERCAT

[DeasVail]

actually that might be controversial right now

I think this is best

UNVOTE: VP Baltar
VOTE: MURDERCAT

This is a good post to yeet someone over, on top of all the reachy stuff DV was doing toward me recently.

why does this post you quoted come from scum rather than town?

[DeasVail]

I think the push on me is coming from scum (obviously) but honestly I have done nothing this game

why does it obviously come from scum if you yourself say you have done nothing? Why wouldn't town suspect you if you're not playing your usual game?

[DeasVail]

Some key things from this game day that I'm concerned by from MURDERCAT:

In line with the "looking helpful" post approach, MC posts 853 and 855 about BM's posts that he thought were useful but doesn't really seem to go anywhere with it. Post 855 is a lot of well the posting says this but....

863 suggests strongly thinking username and titus are scum but there is little content about Titus particularly despite it being a pretty consistent scumread for MC in addition to MC not actually thinking that the IV slot was scum.

I remember strongly thinking that MC was mafia (probably in response to a case someone made) but I think that MC is generally scummy and makes a good elimination for today.

--

I still think that VP is scum. I think that the switch onto my wagon from thinking I was misyeet bait is not actually coming from a mindset of working out whether my play comes from scum. I honestly think he's just butthurt over being suspected for what he sees as not-good-enough reasoning and while this is a story that works from town as well I think that the more lazy approach to reads here comes from scum.

I am less strongly scumreading Klyne than I was.

[DeasVail]

I am less strongly scumreading Klyne than I was.

talk to me about this. i am not feeling the same way at all.

It’s the sharp decline in activity that’s getting me. I don’t think that’s alignment-relevant, plus I think that the vote on me and suggesting me as a wagon was quite proactive and made a lot of sense from Klyne’s perspective as a vote that could be achieved this day.
I don’t have a townread on the slot but I’m having doubts

[DeasVail]

Compared to someone like MC who is popping in here and there with helpful-looking posting but not actually showing any evidence of caring about his reads, and VP, who has voted me for “bad” posts but with no evidence of him actually thinking about what comes from scum and what comes from town, my feelings on Klyne are not as strong

[DeasVail]

actually that might be controversial right now

I think this is best

UNVOTE: VP Baltar
VOTE: MURDERCAT

This is a good post to yeet someone over, on top of all the reachy stuff DV was doing toward me recently.

why does this post you quoted come from scum rather than town?

I think you reconsidered what you need to do to guarantee it's not you today.

Doesnt it make sense towards the end of day to vote for someone that might actually get lynched?
You describe things I’m doing as if they’re scummy when it’s just sensible play (also I wasn’t even in imminent danger back then)

[DeasVail]

Deas flips mafia, I'd be shocked and have to rethink a few sht if he were a wolf

Why is this your stance when I was part of the mafia-nominated hitlist. I am aware that Ben was more of a town force Day 1 than I was, but I would not take that risk as mafia given that I was generally a townread on Day 1.

Wouldn’t it make much more sense for me to be a wolf?