Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Why would I remove myself?In post 34, cyrus62 wrote:I will work with you pav let's remove you and I and look for the 5 why is enchant town? Can we trust std?
I find it hard to trust STD but who knows-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
I should probably be townreading Cyrus for this.In post 48, cyrus62 wrote:4 votes to heal enchant and if we get it wrong we can't win day1
Grumble grumble-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Just disagree with this. Scum can absolutely hurt themselves. Scum can even be named to the coalition without voting themselves onto it.
Self-hurting is not a townlock on anybody. And btw saying "self-hurt so I know I can work with you" is giving scum a roadmap to how to play you.
And I'm not sure about Nathann yet.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Cyrus could you please direct some of your energy to some of the other players in game. You're stressing me out. And the fact that you're concerned about a single vote, which is purely a signifier right now, makes me think twice about townreading you.In post 81, cyrus62 wrote:
Showing good faith in pavHURT: nathann at pav who do you trust? HEAL: pav I'm showing good faith in you but I'm still asking you not to vote me till your sure you can.In post 80, Pavowski wrote:Just disagree with this. Scum can absolutely hurt themselves. Scum can even be named to the coalition without voting themselves onto it.
Self-hurting is not a townlock on anybody. And btw saying "self-hurt so I know I can work with you" is giving scum a roadmap to how to play you.
And I'm not sure about Nathann yet.
I do not legitimately have anybody at this point. Some of these slots have barely spoken.
Aww, thanks.Save The Dragons wrote:i think i like pav-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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Catching up on the day. Long one at work.
No real opinion yet.In post 100, Nathann wrote:
Is this a "I don't have an opinion yet" or "I have a negative opinion"? If it's the latter, I'm interested in hearing about it.In post 80, Pavowski wrote:And I'm not sure about Nathann yet.
In post 122, Save The Dragons wrote:i think reading me is like a fine wine it gets better with ageUgh does this mean I have to townread STD now too? Up is down
Locking in at this point is a mistake, but probably a town oneIn post 125, cyrus62 wrote:I lock in my 5.
This is at least 3/5s of a good list
The hell is this.In post 147, cyrus62 wrote:Truth is I didn't want to be in any ones 5. Since if the 5 fail we will be looking at them more closely.
I have to remind myself that trying to make sense of Cyrus is an exercise in frustration and hair loss-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
*Narrator voice* He did not.In post 155, Pavowski wrote: I now want to go back and see if I actually TR Enchant or not
HURT: Enchant
Need more from you Enchant. I'd like your thoughts on Nathann.
And upon a reread I'm gonna say I like where Hakai is headed. HEAL: Hakai-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
This is my favorite post, locktownIn post 173, yessiree wrote:buddy lemme offer you a deal
we will stop being lazy if you can put some effort in forming coherent thoughts before posting-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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If this is serious, it's terribleIn post 177, Enchant wrote:
PFDPFPSDFPDPSFIn post 174, cyrus62 wrote: I'm aiming for the win on day one
AHAHAHHAHA
Sorry not wasting my mental sanity on you. Just take HEAL: cyrus62.
Spoiler:-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.In post 191, Save The Dragons wrote:something about ssbm's posts bother me
The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.
Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Bowling, probably
That might be optimistic, but in an infinite universe anything is possibleIn post 195, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Implying I will feel town later?In post 193, Pavowski wrote:
Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.In post 191, Save The Dragons wrote:something about ssbm's posts bother me
The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.
Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.
I agree with most of this, but I also tend to find people who dive deep into mechanics scummy.ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.
Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:
0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.
And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.
Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
Sorry SSBM, you sound townish, but you're not there.
Yet.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Bowling, probably
I heckin agree with this and it is upon reading this post I remind myself I only have so much stamina for decoding Cyrus in a day.In post 216, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Just throwing townreads to whoever is willing to work with you is not going to find you 5 town.
Anyway I hurted myself to play Cyrus's game for a bit but I'm done with that now. HEAL: Pav-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
In post 224, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.In post 218, Pavowski wrote:YetSpoiler:-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
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- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.In post 205, Enchant wrote:i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Sure thing, man.In post 239, Save The Dragons wrote:
talk to me about yessiree and hakaiIn post 238, Pavowski wrote:That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself
Vibes on yessirree, but that's my weakest of the 5 I think.
Hakai is townreading Cyrus way harder than I think he's earned, which is either very genuine or big scum equity. I don't think there's actually scum equity there, though, so...-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
I'm gonna add this too just because I was curious and it might be instructive
# of players naming each player to the coalition (including self votes)
Pav-6
STD-5
Cyrus-5
Farren-4
Hakai-3
Enchant-2
Yessirree-2
Nathann-2
Kyouko-2
I hope I haven't miscounted. If I did, I blame the Sandman. Gonna sleep on this info.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Coalition does come first, votes are just a signifier until the coalition is formed.In post 264, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Didnt realize we were also voting, thought coalition came first VOTE: Nathann
Theoretically we could all vote to lim somebody but it wouldn't go through until we have formed (or failed, I guess) the coalition.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
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- Location: Bowling, probably
I thought it might be useful to see at a glance how much each player is being townread. That info is there in your counts, but it didn't quite leap out. But I don't know, the count posts already have a ton of info.In post 259, redtea wrote:In post 252, Pavowski wrote:I'm gonna add this too just because I was curious and it might be instructive
# of players naming each player to the coalition (including self votes)Would it be helpful to start including this in a spoiler or something? It wouldn't be any trouble. Or would that be too confusing?
Then again my sleep-deprived self did a bad count because I'm bad so it might be better coming from on high
I think on balance I'd like this.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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Given you are one of the two, this would be, uh...In post 254, cyrus62 wrote:Maybe the only two not healing me are scum lol Naaa couldn't be that easy. Could it?
Well, it would be something.
I'm actually not sure how I would feel if somebody had a unanimous nod to the coalition.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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Now I get itIn post 263, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
His perspective is that he and Cyrus are both town and that selecting 5 town out of the other 7 players is going to be hard to do. That's the context of that post.In post 227, Pavowski wrote:
We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.In post 205, Enchant wrote:i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia
Yeah, that's not a townslip at all. If anything it's just a derp slip on me, oof-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Posts: 2954
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- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
It's not that simple. 5 people have to have the same list of 5 names.In post 298, cyrus62 wrote:I think we just need to have one more on hanki to form the 5.
We have a lot of overlap, but we are not at the "one more vote needs to move" phase.
And we have plenty of time.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
The longer we go without hearing from Yessirree, the less good I feel about having him in my 5.In post 273, Nathann wrote:In post 179, yessiree wrote:
surely you have other townreads besides cyrus and yourself by nowIn post 177, Enchant wrote:
PFDPFPSDFPDPSFIn post 174, cyrus62 wrote: I'm aiming for the win on day one
AHAHAHHAHA
Sorry not wasting my mental sanity on you. Just take HEAL: cyrus62.
Spoiler:I forgot about these posts, this sequence gave me a bad vibe about yessiree. I can't quite place it, feels a bit... forced? Like either he's attacking the loltownie for doing funny things and trying to keep busy, or he's attempting some clunky distancing. Either way, feels off for some reason.
Nathann I hope you're feeling better. Convince me Farren is town?-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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Agree, I am liking nathann more todayIn post 307, Farren wrote:
This is part of what I like about Nathann, for the record. Continuing to follow through. That tells me the questions have meaning, and that he's interested in hearing the answers.In post 269, Nathann wrote:
And you still haven't replied to me about how the fact that cyrus asked me to hurt myself played the part, and how it differs from Pavowski doing the exact same thing a few posts earlier.In post 245, Hakai wrote:Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
Also, just on the win today / win later argument, my understanding is that after D1 if our coalition fails (contains scum) the game basically becomes mountainous... Town just knows there was >0 scum in the coalition.
So it's not like we can just eliminate the coalition and win if 2 scum were inside. Scum can still night kill and may well kill outside the coalition in that case.
Maybe math disproves me on that but I'm phone posting from work and just wanted to get this out there.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
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- Location: Bowling, probably
I usually don't speculate too much about what scum will do, but isn't this kinda what we're doing anyway? The less certain I am about a player, the less likely I am to have them in my top 5.In post 344, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:I don't think it was already said. Putting it out there because it's factoring into my decisionmaking now. I think it would be useful for others to consider as well. Put players that might be harder to read outside the coalition to force scum into NKing them if they are town. makes scum reduce their own chances in ELO.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Posts: 2954
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- Location: Bowling, probably
It was a weak vibey townread early on but it's kinda losing it's shine for meIn post 374, Nathann wrote:I just noticed Kyouko has yessiree in her Coalition, so. @Kyouko, but also @anyone who Townreads yessiree: why?-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Posts: 2954
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- Location: Bowling, probably
Well, it happened. Everybody except Enchant (who has withdrawn from the proceedings) is now giving Cyrus and I the nod. I guess I have to figure out how I feel about that.
Frankly as much as I don't love the play I am hard-pressed to see how scum does what enchant is doing. Which would mean both scum are going for me and Cyrus. Does it make me want to put enchant in my 5? Damn.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Bowling, probably
What's badIn post 390, cyrus62 wrote:This just seems so bad.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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I appreciate your efforts but somehow this is harder to read than the official VC lolIn post 391, Farren wrote:C: CDHNP
D: CDNP?
E: ?????
F: CFPKN
H: CDEHP
K: CFKPY
N: CDFNP
P: CDHPY
Y: CDFPY
D: Save The Dragons; K: ssbm_Kyouko; everyone else - first letter of their name.
So this is where we are now, sorted alphabetically, as of redtea's last tally.
No two people have the same Coalition, so we're nowhere near locking one in.
The alpha sort is nice, though.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
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- Location: Bowling, probably
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Please stop with this crap. There is lots of time left.In post 396, cyrus62 wrote:I think enchant may have been right. Wining day one was a fools gambit.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Not sure who you're considering jokers in this instance but I'm fairly convinced on STD and I know I'm good. Why are you assuming you need to cut people from your list? Maybe you need to convince 4 of us that your list is good.In post 399, cyrus62 wrote:
since you asked nicely help me iron out my five then. Me pav , save by the bell, nathann and hakin . Who do I keep who do I throw out . Do I keep the two jokers and toss out the rest or toss out the jokers?In post 398, Pavowski wrote:
Please stop with this crap. There is lots of time left.In post 396, cyrus62 wrote:I think enchant may have been right. Wining day one was a fools gambit.
I'm willing to be sold on town!nathann. Want to make the case?-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
It's not the thickest case, and I admit I have some difficulty reading STD, but tonally I'm finding him relaxed and involved in a way that I don't really expect from scum!std.In post 404, Farren wrote:Pavowski, could you make a town case on Save The Dragons?
He's also had a few genuine-feeling reactions to blips in the thread, esp regarding his reads on me, that I don't think scum would have.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
"Not gonna towncase myself, I'm obviously town" is not the un-scummiest take. But I can also see some frustration here on Nathann's part that could come from town!nathann being unable to break through and get some cred. Anybody have experience with Nathann to help put this in perspective?In post 410, Nathann wrote:
Not much more I want to say other than "read my ISO, it's Town". Any arguments I make will ultimately be biased. And it's early enough in the game that I feel like I'm not quite out of Scumrange yet. I can (probably) make one later if absolutely needed, but I'd prefer not to right now.In post 403, cyrus62 wrote:@nathann maybe you can case your self so I don't have to I may make you look scummy..-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 2954
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
Also upon further reflection (I've been for my morning run) wouldn't scum!nathann be absolutely willing to towncase himself to try to get into the coalition?In post 417, Pavowski wrote:
"Not gonna towncase myself, I'm obviously town" is not the un-scummiest take. But I can also see some frustration here on Nathann's part that could come from town!nathann being unable to break through and get some cred. Anybody have experience with Nathann to help put this in perspective?In post 410, Nathann wrote:
Not much more I want to say other than "read my ISO, it's Town". Any arguments I make will ultimately be biased. And it's early enough in the game that I feel like I'm not quite out of Scumrange yet. I can (probably) make one later if absolutely needed, but I'd prefer not to right now.In post 403, cyrus62 wrote:@nathann maybe you can case your self so I don't have to I may make you look scummy..
Town can't lose D1 but scum can...
I guess unless his partner is already looking good for the coalition
Meh, I need to think about some of the other slots-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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In post 406, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If Pavowski and Cyrus can agree on a 5 that does not include Nathann I'll sheep it
I've been noodling on this all day, and I just don't think scum goes so hard against a single slot, especially one that's, if not being scum read, has had a hard time getting traction in the coalition.
I'm not saying Kyo is right, I just don't see why scum would tunnel like that here.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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In post 429, cyrus62 wrote:plus i just say random things.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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I don't really, but I do need to replace yessirree with somebody.In post 430, cyrus62 wrote:pav if you want ssbm in your five but like i said if she gets in the 5 and we fail im death tunneling her.-
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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Pavowski He/himMafia ScumHe/him
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- Location: Bowling, probably