Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: Kyouko
Coming off VLA tomorrow but will be catching up on other games. See ya in a couple days prolly

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sup nerds I am town, put me in your coalitions

HEAL: STD

Nathann is scum. He's forcing it in that post where he repeated "theoretical disagreement" twice. Very clunky, not natural at all. Also he spews farren in that post I suppose.

HEAL: Farren

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hesitant to add either of cyrus or pavowski because of their popularity so far. Heals seem to be given to them easily, probably because they've talked a lot is the feeling I've gotten. Hakai, what are you feeling from Cyrus that feels out of his scumrange?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Won't heal ebbs only person to ask to be in the five like 3 post why should we trust your town.

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

something about ssbm's posts bother me

Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.

The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.

Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.

Implying I will feel town later?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also I'm pondering hakai's comment on Cyrus scumrange. Going to check back to owner's market blitz. It had a similar town-finding mechanic where players elected a market owner as well as voted for an elim on D1.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm also aiming to win D1. I know my presence can't cause the coalition to fail, that's why I'm voting myself in. Everyone else should be voting me in because I'm a safe bet.

Not voting yourself into a coalition is pro-scum play. I noticed you opened OMB nominating yourself as town - why are you not nominating yourself here?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kinda works out that I wasnt here to out that for the first couple days as it gave people time to take stances without that info

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Imagine removing self from Coalition just to say "I would't do that as scum, even if it lowers my chances to win, townread pls". It's... No really. Too blatant. Too dumb.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.

If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.

If you think Cyrus is town you can put him in the coalition. If 5 people that arent Cyrus agree on a group of 5 that includes him, he still ends up in the coalition

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment.

easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town

.

Interesting argument. Could be a positive.

Why are both the underlined true?

I have difficulty emulating the full extent of my town play as scum, so it becomes apparent whether I am town or scum usually by D2 at the latest.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

See I already know how I would play this as scum. I would try to get my partner town read put in the 5 then hide in the shadows hoping every one elmanateed the 5 .

This is what I said your really reaching here. Scum would be the 1st to heal them selfs. Town would be more reluctant simplely because they want in the five but need to be town read to get in it. Now you have me hoping my 5 is right.

Take Nathann out you probably have 4 town there. Big shocker when you already knew who was town though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just throwing townreads to whoever is willing to work with you is not going to find you 5 town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yet

Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia

We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.

His perspective is that he and Cyrus are both town and that selecting 5 town out of the other 7 players is going to be hard to do. That's the context of that post.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Didnt realize we were also voting, thought coalition came first VOTE: Nathann

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@mod, what happens if a Coalition is not locked in by deadline? Is plurality in effect, or does no Coalition occur?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Provided we don't win, players outside the coalition are more likely to be NKed by scum so as not to reduce the POE within the coalition - at least until 1 scum is found.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't think it was already said. Putting it out there because it's factoring into my decisionmaking now. I think it would be useful for others to consider as well. Put players that might be harder to read outside the coalition to force scum into NKing them if they are town. makes scum reduce their own chances in ELO.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HURT: STD

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: Cyrus

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: Pavowski

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also, just on the win today / win later argument, my understanding is that after D1 if our coalition fails (contains scum) the game basically becomes mountainous... Town just knows there was >0 scum in the coalition.

So it's not like we can just eliminate the coalition and win if 2 scum were inside. Scum can still night kill and may well kill outside the coalition in that case.

Maybe math disproves me on that but I'm phone posting from work and just wanted to get this out there.

@ssbm pav said it if you anit reading and you anit helping you are scum.

327 is what got me thinking on that train of thought, but I did not repeat what he said.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: yessiree
That puts my 5 to:
Kyouko, Cyrus, Pavowski, Farren, yessiree

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: Cyrus

And this is going agesnt what you just said I am the hardest to read most people say I should be vig or just voted off

I don't think you're hard to read

[ssbm_Kyouko]

briefly skimmed, I think for now I'm okay with this

HEAL: yessiree, STD, pavowski, cyrus, farren

can elaborate if needed

thinking about this post i don't know that i like it so much it doesn't seem like a lot of effort was made to sort people into the coalition

Since he has himself in there do you think that implies he is scum and his partner is outside of his 5, implying the other 4 are town? If so, who would you swap yessiree for? (I think your coalitions are similar)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HEAL: Cyrus

And this is going agesnt what you just said I am the hardest to read most people say I should be vig or just voted off

I don't think you're hard to read

Said the one who thought I was town on the big board game war. Or convice people to vote me off in the market.

I've had games to learn from now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hakai do you scumread me?

No.

Because we not winning D1.

Town has won plenty of times day 1 in the past.

Nathann can you hurt me and add hanki to your 5.

HURT: All

I stopping caring from this moment.

You opened eyes to me, that i am wrong. TOWN CAN AND WILL WIN D1!

Yes! Especially with me and you out of Coalition, Town will quess 5 other townies! From 7 people, which contain 5 townies exactly! Yes. You quess them ideally. I believe in your godlike scumreading.


Either way. I ignoring Cyrus for whole game. Go kill me, it's better that explaining something to him.

VOTE: Enchant
This feels like scum who is slowly being boxed into a PoE and knows they will lose day 1.

HURT: STD

Why?

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Also, where are the townreads on Farren coming from?

I find STD hard to read. I only get vibes off of him and have misread him in the past. I think he's town here but I know my reads on him are likely to be bad, so I would rather he be possibly NKed so I don't have to read him if he's outside the coalition and we dont win.

Will grab Farren quotes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh Nathann spewed Farren. Its pre-flip but I'm confident on scum!Nathann. I also am not seeing anything from Farren to make me doubt that read.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Vibes, let me see what you posted before I did that. I know I just snapped it off with you

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i'm town so i'm not going to

It was this post

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If Pavowski and Cyrus can agree on a 5 that does not include Nathann I'll sheep it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I would also prefer STD be out but if I had one "wish", it would be that Nathann is out

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Aside from me being in of course, but idk if that's likely. I dont seem to be winning hearts

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So I started typing this right after my last post and then I got distracted. Anyway...

For reasons, I feel like [Kyouko] shouldn't be rushing to read me on tone, especially not like that.

I can come back to this now, considering Mini Normal 2232 is finally over. In that game, both Kyouko and I were playing, and we were both Town. The reason I say that I feel that Town!her wouldn't have a read in me like that is because at the time, we were both already flipped in that game (so she knew I was Town there) and I think my tone here has been pretty similar here to what it was there. (I didn't go back to reread my own ISO there to check, but eh.) To completely ignore me based on a tonal read from a single post is bad enough, but I feel like she has enough precedent to see that my typing style is just like that, at least enough to actually start communicating with me and not mad tunnel me based on a single post.

Of course, now that that game is over, I'm looking forward to the explanation Kyouko will have for her read on me, because I'm guessing there's

something

connected to that game that made her be so sure in me being Scum here.

it's not directly connected to that game. I died early on there as I recall and started/played several games since. I dont remember having a strong read on you when we were alive, maybe I did, but I was probably leaning on Koba's reads pretty heavily.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nyeh!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm just waiting for the coalition to settle in at this point. If we dont win, I'll give the thread a reread once I have info on which group of 5 is guaranteed to have scum. I'll continue to argue against you being in it and maybe try to get myself in but I think that ship has sailed. Maybe the replacement will reenergize me, but that's not what I'm waiting on.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If you q+ questions I missed I can address them as well, just spoiler them and @me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I just answered a lot of that post in 446:

Why am I certain? Gut instinct on reading that post was that the repetition comes from.scum that is forcing it. I try to go with my gut on D1 because when I dont I feel bad later when I was right. Most recently, I can think of ItalianoVD in Mini Normal XXXX | Screaming (may be remembering the wrong mini) and Guillotina and Robert M Hunter in Chrono Trigger Chronicles, as well as RMH in 3d20. There was also T3 in Open 820 Siege of Aurelia, and MistyX in Owners Market Blitz, who I correctly scumread off a vibe of an innocuous post, but ended up eliminating them so it worked out.

Specifically Mistyx, ItalianoVD, and Guillotina reads are what my read on you now feels like to me.

Ignoring everything else? I've been duped out of my gut reads too many times recently to drop them easily anymore. I'm going to hold on to this one like a dog with a bone for the time being.

I'm not interested in meta diving right now. I may do it later of I feel stuck after rereading the thread.

Opinion on anything else you've said? I've been reading it, responding where I have questions/comments to share. If there is anything else specific of yours that you want me to address, same offer, q+ and @me and I'll address it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gut instinct on reading that post was that the repetition comes from.scum that is forcing it.

Or,

or

, the repetition came because I wanted to make myself clear and because there were two different theoretical disagreements at play - Fareen disagreeing on theory with Save the Dragons, and me disagreeing on theory with Farren.

This I'll have to take a look at, probably after work

I'm going to hold on to this one like a dog with a bone for the time being.

Should I read this as you not being interested in listening to literally anything that anyone else is saying about me and being willing to die on this hill?

I'm listening to what people are saying but I'm not interested in being convinced. If I

see

something convincing, maybe I will be, but probably not before the coalition locks.

Opinion on anything else you've said? I've been reading it, responding where I have questions/comments to share.

This ties in to the above. I am highly skeptical of a good faith Town player making a read on me (or on anyone, really) based on tone from one (1) post and then not using literally anything else that that player has said in order to read them. The point isn't that I want you to respond to a certain point of mine, the point is that by not taking into account literally anything else I'm doing (or what others are saying about me), your read on me feels willfully ignorant.

My reads in most games are willfully ignorant of most of the playerlist. When I townread a player I believe to be strong, like Koba, I will listen to their reads on a slot that I am having trouble reading. I'm not having trouble reading you and I dont have a strong enough townread on what I believe to be a strong enough player to sheep a read on you.

Because the consensus seems to be on Pavowski, Cyrus, and I'm not being widely TRed, I'm trying to find a compromise: I'll sheep their coalition if they keep you out of it. I get what's most important to me (aside from putting myself in, which doesnt seem to.be happening), and we get a coalition locked in that I'm

okay

with, but would not be my 5 if I had full say.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ssbm so me why nathann is scum. Besides the he hurt him self thing. I hurt my self heck almost every one did at least five. . So tell me how he is scum. . Maybe you can improve my odds. On wining tell me who I should replace nathann with besides you.

I don't think I've said hurting himself to appease you was scummy. I see that as NAI atm. Town or scum would do it for different reasons but I'm unable to tell what his reason was. I think the double "theoretical disagreements" post felt unnatural and that's why I'm scumreading him.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We're actually starting to look close-ish, here. STD how do you feel about hakai?

How do you feel about Hakai still? Going through your ISO, I see one early "liking where he's going" read, and not much updated stuff. If you're still (at least somewhat) certain in him being Town, mind trying to convince me?

Can someone say who they absolutely want in the coalition please? Only one name allowed no naming yourself.

As of right now, that's probably cyrus for me. Pavowski is a somewhat close second.

I was under the impression that 481 is just, common sense on how this setup should be played, but anyway. Obviously agreed with that plan. Though also agreed that we shouldn't wait for the last possible moment to form the Coalition so that we have time to agree on the yeet afterwards if it fails. Maybe with ~3 days left on the clock?

I think instantly winning is a pipe dream and the more time we have for an elim the better.

I find Math's posting up to this point weird. (Not really Scummy, just weird.) If I recall correctly, about half of all runs of this setup ended up with a winning Coalition. Why such pessimism? Also, I find it kinda odd that you'd rather have more time for a yeet after a failed Coalition than put in some of that extra time

into

trying to get a winning Coalition.

Not sure if it comes from Scum, though. If Math's partner is already deep in the Coalition, then this kind of rushing and keeping himself out of it just makes him looks worse later on. And if his partner isn't in the Coalition, then Math is gamethrowing? Hm. Maybe that's what he wants me to think so we put him into the Coalition, oh the wine.

Bottom of page 21, I'll be back later.

This is a lot of words with nothing really conclusive, I could add this to why Nathann's scum here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

do you really see scum!cyrus being like

cyrus: "i'm scum."
mathblade: "I'm calling you out on that"
cyrus: YOU ACTIVATED MY BIG BRAIN TRAP HURT ALL SHAKES HEAD GO AHEAD PUT MATH AND SSBM ON A COALITION SEE WHAT HAPPNES NOT MY FAULT

Yes, but I also see town!cyrus doing it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nyeh!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

have you given a reason why i'm scum yet MB

someone else should ask this MB probably going to write me off as scum and ignore me for the rest of the game

This is a rather uNcHaRiTaBlE post

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I can't be bleeding town that badly if a few weak post taken out of context is all it takes for town to scum read me.

does this mean you think mb is town

Zing

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HURT: cyrus

[ssbm_Kyouko]

HURT: all
HEAL: cyrus62, Pavowski, Save The Dragons, Farren, Nathann
Hammered

[ssbm_Kyouko]

why the heckie would you put your top scumread in a coalition

To kill him if it fails

[ssbm_Kyouko]

When you want to offer proof that your top Scumread is Scum, but you actually hammer a winning Coalition.

Nice work, Town. Thank you for the game, mod, the flavour was super fun!

Lmao gotten

(My read on you had softened a while back, was mostly sticking to it to gauge reactions from others)

I kinda got a bad feeling about the other coalition that was tied 3-3 when I saw Hakai vote it. I didnt like the way he locked that in.

Hakai, are you ChaosOmega? Feel free to ignore this if you dont want to confirm or deny

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I thought the post formatting reminded me of ChaosOmega, how there would be quote stripes

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^a line break, and then more content