Open 832: Nightless Exploder Pandemonium III - Game Over

[schadd_]

i think u got the countdown timer wrong @miltank

[schadd_]

im town

[schadd_]

BLOWIN DA FUCK UP!!!

[schadd_]

i dont wanna vote clemcy

[schadd_]

slightly liking innocent villager for town ...

[schadd_]

VOTE: T3 ?

[schadd_]

VOTE: cows love sushi rolls

[schadd_]

VOTE: cows love sushi rolls

sweet rvs

why is it rvs

[schadd_]

well i can tell you i chose a person to vote based on their posting

[schadd_]

VOTE: numberq <- this is not me losing a cowslovesushirolls scumread

it might be an obvious idea to everyone but there's reason to explode on people a little bit spontaneously because if a mafian grows to be convinced they'll be exploded upon it's surely worthwhile to try to counter-explode on a consensus town. but i think that in general people's natural zealousness to explode will make this not an important thing to think about

[schadd_]

Clemency, A50 & Pooky have volunteered to be the 3 suicide bombers

ok wait this owns i wouldnt know how to sort any of these people

[schadd_]

@ strange matter:

are you more interested in solving or in planning around the setup during this day phase

[schadd_]

cows l.s.r.:

did you start to approach the game differently when you got a bunch of people voting you? do you feel like you're in the clear now?

[schadd_]

236 strikes me as a little bit +scum

[schadd_]

236 strikes me as a little bit +scum

Okay, can you explain this a little more?

it reads to me a little bit like you're making excuses for Potentially sounding wolfy + this idea of worrying about whether people are being serious or joking is sort of a classic sign of tmi (i.e. already knowing that people are town, so all that's left to figure out is whether they're joking/being cagey/whatever). like maybe people are deliberately making it unclear whether they're joking and maybe there's alignment-indication to come from that. (sort of a weak point just because i don't think people do that very often)

[schadd_]

i like a world where clemmy + pooky + a50 are designated blowers and they operate on a general vig best-practices principle where they tend to prioritize near-consensus scumreads with a little bit of their own discretion sprinkled in (if they have one). that said the reason you would prefer a chaotic explosion world is to avoid letting scum blow up a preferred nightkill target and i don't notice anyone yet that really needs saving (if i. villager is town then sure him i guess)

[schadd_]

i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum

how do u figure about the quality of their reads

[schadd_]

i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum

how do u figure about the quality of their reads

oh, it wasn't really a diss about the quality of their reads, i think their reads are probably better than average. i'd say the same for any player that doesn't have either RC reads or Creature levels of conftown.
for 3 reads from iv to be better than the "chaos strategy," iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of {pooky, a50, clem} to offset the chance of them being scum, which i think is unlikely. for 3 reads from iv to be better than democratization, iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of the entire town to offset the chance of iv being scum, which i think has probability ~0.

oo

[schadd_]

gently imagining pooky to be town actually

[schadd_]

wim meaning "want it more", i.e. someone having a clear desire to win the game which is indicative in some way

[schadd_]

had been townreading charlemagne a little bit but then turning back on that because i saw that their number of posts is small >:)

[schadd_]

well i kind of think enchant is town because of their low post count though (however i would put like 2% stock in that)

[schadd_]

well i kind of think enchant is town because of their low post count though (however i would put like 2% stock in that)

I can see a low post count giving you scum vibes, but what makes it give you town vibes? Even 2% vibeness.

just knowing them a vague bit from some game i moderated i think they would have less compulsion to do a lot as town here

[schadd_]

Keep hammering away at the post count kings

[schadd_]

I think it's more activated common sense which you deactivated at previous games.

would you say its common sense to ... post more than 5 times during D1 then

[schadd_]

Teacherrr Teacherrr he scumclaimed with a limited selection of the rest of the playerlist

[schadd_]

having vivid imaginations of exploding on charlemagne at some potential future point & my legs are batting around like a dreaming cat

[schadd_]

VOTE: charlemagne but dont pocket me !!!!!!

[schadd_]

this is maybe a setup where this reasoning is the most disastrously unuseful but i am evilly feeling charlemagne and numberq paired together

[schadd_]

just taking note: i think innocent villager and charlemagne are kind of playing the game similarly, in a way that should give me equity to scumread the other if i am scumreading one. in particular both of them (i think) have been poking around for novel wagons, analyzing a lot, and gently engaging towards collective action. these are things that i think enable one to push strongly towards a mafia wincondition or more specifically just this goal of surviving d1 (note that this isn't a particularly powerful reason i have for scumreading charlemagne). anyway, i don't scumread innocent villager, i rather townread him actually. i think that as mafia innocentvillager has to be playing like very "brilliantly" and "swimmingly" which is just less likely to happen. i'm just leaving this pin for myself as it feels like there's a ridiculously large amount of games that proceed to an endgame where it turns out somebody like iv was mafia and simply constantly creating brilliant outcomes for mafia. maybe this was a long way of saying "maybe iv is deepwolfing" which is like a kind of obvious and also not-very-useful thing i dunno. maybe i would say something like iv is aligning very comfortably with my model of what a deepwolf would look like, but is still probably town. moreover i'm just placing down some things that are on my mind right now so people can do the thing where they read it and Evaluate whether or not i am Town based on such thoughts.

[schadd_]

if ur town ur literally the only one who doesnt see me as obviously town

i don't see you as obvious town and furthermore i believe that if you take too much time forestalling this idea of exploding on d2 or thereabouts i shall happily explode on you with high discrimination

[schadd_]

...

maybe another piece: i've been thinking a lot about "skill determination" in games lately (i.e. how often you can expect a stronger player to win) and this setup just feels like one where endgames are generally tricky and weird to play and a particularly strong mafia player would be needed to win 'comfortably', maybe with the exception of the fact that the setup is mafsided if the games continues after d1. its hard to do solving based on this principle, i will probably spend plenty of time idly thinking about it

[schadd_]

what ever

[schadd_]

no!!!!

[schadd_]

^ funny

[schadd_]

i kinda think pavowski is town

[schadd_]

mr. almost50 are you scumreading pooky magic bear for a reason other than disliking their explosion ideas as per 305

[schadd_]

K

[schadd_]

• the way pooky is playing here is pretty frustrating and my kneejerk reaction to anyone doing a sort of preemptive blaming of everyone-else-but-me is generally going to be "ok :)" and vote them and ignore postgame (this includes a world where cows is a wolf)
  
• 556 is literally wolfy but also comfortably within the realm of something a towny would say just being catty and not thinking about it
  
• gonna keep hanging out on my vanity wagon for now

[schadd_]

i'm still operating under this, yeah

if theres a way that 556 isn't contradictory to that i'm missing it

[schadd_]

ok well then you like doubled down on it as though it was a serious comment. i'm not here to tell you what you meant when you said that . . .

[schadd_]

be bo be bo be bo be bo

[schadd_]

VOTE: cows love sushi rolls a lot of these things i've heard from you have been like you're almost explicitly speculating on possible motivations behind your posts from a sort of external perspective

[schadd_]

hello mr.

[schadd_]

as town: there's stuff that's going on in your head, and youre posting. if you get into a little argument about what the things were in your head, it's pretty painless to set things straight and give specific anchors as to what your intentions were. sometimes people even do so intensely! like: ahhh, can't you see what i was thinking, it was so clear to me, etc. etc.

as mafia: when you post you are possibly going through a set of possible motivations you might have and choosing the one that seems most true to form. and when you write the posts, you hope that there is a line of thoughts/motivations that makes sense that it would map to your posts. if someone argues with you, thats spooky. i think a way to approach it that feels safe is to be vague and try to close off as few of those potential thoughts/motivations to your posts as possible rather than pin yourself down to one thing. i think you have been playing very unpinned.

[schadd_]

i keep rereading the post and all i can think about is the fact that i've never thought about doing this as mafia in chat

which is "the post" and what is "doing this" referring to

[schadd_]

I don't really consider trying new things to be meta manipulation, I meant more like picking out certain tendencies and attitudes to attempt to replicate as scum. Which is what it reads like you were setting yourself up for.

And I don't really see the general statement of new players not having much established history/reputation as a specific claim about you that necessitated refutation, so I didn't consider it relevant enough to include in the quote.

I can somewhat understand where you're coming from here, but it still feels off to me. It just reads too much like scum trying to cover their bases, with a sprinkling of AtE for good measure.

it's a bit of a double-edged sword, yeah? if i'm trying to replicate something from my past games (which i actually have two of now, one finished about 30 minutes ago) then it would be pretty blatant and it would take an ISO or two to completely knock me out of the water. missed opportunity to try and catch me doing something evil, :wink:

you can talk about how irrelevant it was to the point kennyk was making but the point stands that the only reason i made that post was because of kennyk, so it was important to leave on

that's fine, i just care if my point was made to you or not

just looked at the most recent finished game of yours i happened on & found the first moment you seemed to be staging a defense of yourself. the second line of yours here seems like its almost exactly what i'm talking about: somebody is shading a certain thing you did in a post and you are simply and declaratively stating your reason for having done it. moreover i think its just like comfortable and townie in a way that i dont feel like you've been in this game

[schadd_]

i'm going to continue to vote you for now

[schadd_]

wondering if it is just too steep of a luxury to hear someone else share a thought or reaction here

[schadd_]

you are literally game

[schadd_]

does my line of inquiry intersect with your reasons for scumreading this person which is supposedly your true calling in this game? or perhaps i'm like distracting from those reasons with unnecessary chatter? or like literally anything? i am eating shit and dying here

[schadd_]

ok imagine me taking your post about the game being dead and ripping it into a hundred pieces and spitting into it and drabbling ketchup and barbecue sauce on it and putting it in a blender and then lacing it with borax to trap fruit flies and then throwing the dead fruit flies + your post into a horrible swamp where they go on to get cursed by one hundred witches

[schadd_]

i understand that you are trying to apologize profusely to me but the witches' curses have stripped you of the gift of verbose language

[schadd_]

probly my mistake then

[schadd_]

Spoiler: cows partner talk

Enchant, schadd, innocentvillager, A50, Strange, numberQ

this is the list of players who haven't voted cows

if cows is scum, we'd expect the two partners to be here right under this logic?

If Pooky is town then i don't see why Enchant is being so vitriolic about defending Pooky so it's probably not cows/Enchant/non-pooky, also Pooky is just town for the votepark

schadd seems fine and at least is defending you and now is even pushing back to cows when the wagon on you is very unstable. Again schadd/cows/non-pooky doesn't make sense.

I'm not scum, ive been p townie on dayplay i feel
A50 is clear town on dayplay

leaves like, exactly Strange and numberQ

The only like, maybe scum voting for scum!cows is clemency? but it seems too theatre so i don't really believe it

are there parts of this people disagree with

preface: i wanna say this sort of moment in the game opens up a lot of weird potential lines of behavior from scum. like if your partner is getting really wagoned i think the obvious archetypical response is for scum to aggressively mount other wagons/defend your partner. but i think a lot of people really hate doing that, people don't like to powerwolf on here. and you know since its the obvious thing to do its more nerve wracking. i wanna say i've seen a sort of death instinct kick in for scumteams in this sort of situation, like "well things are looking bad, how about i just bus you and hope that people get cold feet or something". i would still be disinclined to think of people on cows' wagon as partners (simply not voting your partner is safe and not nerve wracking at all really) but i would similarly be disinclined to straight up rule out a bunch of partners. moreover the T3 and charlemagne votes moved which puts them pretty comfortably outside of that rule-out range for me. naively clemency pulling up with a hard chainsaw vote on pooky seems like a thing for a cows partner to do but yeah its kind of hard to see that

enchant: having made the preface i would say that like reverse-chainsawing your partner in that way is a pretty exceptionally odd move, like accomplishing nothing else than 'pinning yourself down' to needlessly go back to my earlier idea. i kind of just don't see reasons to think of enchant as town in any case though.

schadd: see 16 (breadcrumb)

innocent v: i do think youre town but also i think it would make sense that you're pretty strongly not poe'd as a cows partner

a50 not clearly town to me

honestly have no qualms with exactly numberq and strangematter being the team LOL

see preface comment about charlemagne and t3

t3 in particular is interesting to me bc ive modded a bunch of games they were in and they seem like a sort of person that somebody else could have like a really easy snap meta read on but idk what that would be. Anyway

[schadd_]

regarding 598 / 599: i dont think anything i said is bulletproof or even all that convincing, kind of why i wanted other people to react. in particular the main anchor for me voting cows is that pooky was nominated for paragon this year which i errantly remembered at some point around when i was like doing the whole questioning situation. i think calling it "slightly pingy" is reasonable

[schadd_]

schadd are there other particular posts that you think are potentially reflective of the scum mindset you described?

one thing i did feel is: i don't think anyone like strongly townreads him or has really expressed much of an opinion about him so i think the fact that his tone and playstyle isn't really changing throughout all of that is like slightly town!indicative

looking at the iso & thinking of posts that seem to be thinking about his motives externally: 101 "the post you quoted is textbook scum" (hilariously a post charlemagne called out as scummy), 159 particularly "my top town are off the wagon" maybe as opposed to like "i tr the people off the wagon", 201 "i dont have any suspects" as opposed to something like "i'm not scumreading anyone right now" / "everyone looks like town" (theres a lot of room for this & 159 to just be meaningless semantic distinctions & i'm just recording what i'm thinking about really)

relatedly just thinking that the thoughts that are produced by him dont feel very convincing to me. i thot it was odd to put your town townread as conditional 385. spent too much time looking at the iso that it doesnt really feel productive to pull up more exmples, i guess i just dont really see reasons to think of this person as town & it felt good to think of them as mafia

[schadd_]

maybe a50 looks town

[schadd_]

i have no idea why i was nominated for paragon

i am really not very good at finding scum

ok wig

[schadd_]

K

[schadd_]

iv do u think this is gonna flip town

[schadd_]

WAT

[schadd_]

is everybody literally kidding my ass

[schadd_]

thing is like i would have exploded on iv in endgame probably LOL

[schadd_]

lets please xontinue to play mafia at this point if we wouldnt mind

[schadd_]

ok fuck its like me and all the wolfy peiple left isnt it

[schadd_]

i believe rhat if you are town and you do another hurried wxplode that you are letting a50 off the hook

[schadd_]

oh just a bote since iv is like flipped town and gone: it was fun to play w you and glad you liked my posts :) dodnt want to say that while u were alive at the risk of like pocketinf myself unto you

[schadd_]

thing is like i would have exploded on iv in endgame probably LOL

i dont know that this is actually true in particular it would be wildly irresponsible and also like not in accordancr with my reads. mostly just expressing a feeling id had.

[schadd_]

i think t3 and charlemagne are scum . . . . ?

[schadd_]

three things are suddenly troubling cows being mafia:

• suddenly feel as though i dont know what the fuck pookys reads were
  
• enchant wolf (n.b.: i think there's a lot of room for enchant to have exploded for the specific reason of their flip making cows look good)
  
• innocent villager, Now a flipped townie, plus a handful of other people some of whom have to be town by reverse poe, were/are generally townreading cows in a way that is worrisome when combined with these other read-dislodging facts

[schadd_]

cool

yeah sorry for giving cows a hard time. definitely saw a lot of people punished for like being vocal and present in this game LOL

[schadd_]

i liked the d1 length