Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Cephrir]

I wish I had more energy to explain it but imaginality's 1105 and 1116 really give me this emulating/fake vibe in how he talks about his reads.

this is a weird thing to post in your like, third of 10 consecutive posts

[Cephrir]

Though granted, putting imaginality at E-1 was probably a bit hasty, one of a few things I regret doing last night. Don't play mafia when your brain is melting, kids.

yeah this post still sucks

[Cephrir]

i ran out of energy

VOTE: tejate

[Cephrir]

Ceph my thoughts about Tejate revolved so much around how different he's been here vs the newbie game, which I could not discuss on day 1.

this does not really explain why your dance was so bad!!

[Cephrir]

that's foreboding

[Cephrir]

that's foreboding

Eh, more like it's not mafia related in the slightest and very uh, personal, but if you need to know then I'm fine opening up.

i'll let it rest for now. i don't think you would make up something like that, but at the same time i still get to be suspicious of you because you can have life issues and a red role pm

[Cephrir]

i dont want to discourage anyone from DOing Stuff but it's interesting to observe who responds to this seemingly town-loaded gamestate by springing into action and who is chilling

Can you talk more about this? Why seemingly? It sounds like you feel that scum would be motivated to do more in this state than town would?

i think it's a possibility anyway that scum would feel a bit of fire under their butts today because the pool appears to have narrowed significantly

[Cephrir]

I prefer my current vote but redtea is a fine vote too so I'd switch if mine is not happening

[Cephrir]

that's pretty close to my exact readlist

[Cephrir]

which i guess just makes both of us boring

[Cephrir]

yeah, but today isn't the day to worry about that

[Cephrir]

im approaching the point at which i just don't even read long posts at all anymore

[Cephrir]

what is the distinction between redtea's particular brand of apathy and 2020 Scumteam Apathy

at this point in site meta, "not trying = town" feels like a surface-of-the-sun take

[Cephrir]

no really tho i can only find so many ways to say 'when i have a cohesive picture of this game i'll say so'

you could tell us about your non cohesive picture

[Cephrir]

there's something i want to wait for.

[Cephrir]

ugh

[Cephrir]

there's something i want to wait for.

my trap card has been activated. the thing i wanted to wait for was meg posting again following the influx of votes, because they had posted this

turbo eliminations are always bad especially when there's a decent chance at least one person will have a cop result tomorrow

thank you for coming to my TED talk

I've seen mechsolved games lost by quick elims this isn't happening again

they have come through with the following

redtea flip gives good info
tejate flip gives good info

redtea is scummier than tejate

ergo kill redtea

yikes fam

[Cephrir]

I literally do not think anyone was suggesting that but yourself.

yeah, this... i don't know where ydra got the idea we were even contemplating this and i thought the victim complex about it was pretty strange

[Cephrir]

IF they flip town though, we also should turbo eliminate one of GL/Meg/Tejate tomorrow imo.

Meg was responding to this

ah. darn.

still doesn't seem to mix that well.

[Cephrir]

I'm not agreeing to any pre-emptive day 3 vote before day 3. Let's see our flip and N2 cop checks, then come to a decision on day 3.

this. i haven't fully followed the logic about it and would prefer to hash it out with fewer distractions

also, i havent fully followed this 1v1. sry it seemed interestig but i just hhhhhh

[Cephrir]

Oh I retract my emoji then!

i don't; it was a good emoji.

[Cephrir]

i guess i shouldnt keep anything close to the vest when i could die tonight

if redtea flips scum i will think 2508 reveals TMI

[Cephrir]

is it like pulling teeth though, because this wagon went from 0 to 60 in no time flat.

im not saying thats a problem, wagon speed arguments are trash, but

[Cephrir]

i certainly agree that shirou's behavior at the moment is bizarre. even if he is scum with redtea, is redtea really so crucial to his victory as to be worth imploding over? so i struggle to explain it in either case

[Cephrir]

this does seem like town enchant, based on my experience

[Cephrir]

No I don't exist

so... no comment on 2403 / 2455 ?

this beetlejuice suggests to me that you are reading the thread and are perfectly happy with everything that's occurring

[Cephrir]

if redtea is town, meg/tejate are both scum

[Cephrir]

Also you forgot Meg.

this is a very small and probably ultimately not valuable observation, but whenever I see stuff like this (forgetting to put somebody in a readslist) I take it as strong evidence that morph/Meg are not aligned together. so if one of them is scum, the other is almost certainly not

apropos of nothing here is my readlist

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[Cephrir]

if redtea is town, meg/tejate are both scum

Elaborate?

based on meg's logic for hopping on here mostly, and my feeling that they are suspicious in general atm.

[Cephrir]

and im already scumreading you/yours is the wagon we derailed to do this.

[Cephrir]

Missed those posts in particular

and yet impressively you still haven't commented on them

[Cephrir]

Also didn't wanna because it plays very much into my scum meta

[Cephrir]

it's like sitting on the lake shore trying to spot nessie

[Cephrir]

Anyway, if you're instinctual response is to say that I'm lying about copping you, then there shouldn't really be a debate here.

VOTE: Morph

Just for posterity's sake.

What other response would you expect if they were town?

I just woke up but the move is probably to wait and see how this plays out for a bit either way.

[Cephrir]

AL is sort of a strange kill; of all the AL-fua-ceph conf-ish-town morass, they're the one slot with a definitely useless role. I feel like that's a very strange kill for scum who is seemingly in a quite bad position to make and wonder if it means something significant.

I don't think it is. AL would have been near impossible to mis-elim and they know that no one is likely to protect them. On night 1 they went for a risk, on night 2 they went for a guarantee. Makes sense to me.

As for why they didn't kill a town!Shirou, well that's quite simple isn't it? Shirou no longer has the same wagon pushing power he had day 1. He's no longer largely immune to suspicion. Of course, that's assuming he's town... plus, we've had several doctor claims by now and a dead doc at the time of night 2, so the chances of there being a N3 doc are statistically not very high, especially if we're in 6-4. As we saw night 1, scum is presumably willing to take that risk.

this; if shirou is town, he probably was left alive as a potential mislim for today

[Cephrir]

my gut instinct is that morph is scum here. im not sure if this is weakened or strengthened by their d1 redtea push.

but i don't feel the need to jump into action quite yet.

my plan is to read redtea's iso soon. i will almost assuredly derive nothing of value from it, but it's an exercise that must be undertaken all the same. then i'll try to do the harder part of sorting the other direction of interaction

[Cephrir]

the AL kill on the other hand does look sort of good for them, maybe.

[Cephrir]

my gut instinct is that morph is scum here. im not sure if this is weakened or strengthened by their d1 redtea push.

but i don't feel the need to jump into action quite yet.

my plan is to read redtea's iso soon. i will almost assuredly derive nothing of value from it, but it's an exercise that must be undertaken all the same. then i'll try to do the harder part of sorting the other direction of interaction

And I was moved by your day 1 lament that nobody every invites you to the big kid's table in games. Not that you did anything with the reachouts, but still.

------------

I'll be afk or mobile-posting (~snort~) for the next 8-9 hours.

Enjoy unmitigated neuterhalf for the duration.

If townreading you is a requirement for entry, the big kids' table is actually just for cowards.

[Cephrir]

Today is hardly over.

[Cephrir]

Am I wrong in thinking the amount of ATE coming out of your slot this game is pretty atypical

[Cephrir]

Am I wrong in thinking the amount of ATE coming out of your slot this game is pretty atypical

Wait a second you were in bloodstained you fucking well know what it looks like these days.

Hm. I guess I dont recall it looking quite like this.

[Cephrir]

I'm willing to roll with a mass claim. I don't think the order is important.

[Cephrir]

I think it makes sense for cops to hide their nights for the moment too, especially since we already have a claimed night 3 cop. I suppose if two night 3 docs turn up this may be worth revising.

[Cephrir]

i'm not sure i believe this whole song and dance was just shirou's trap card.

[Cephrir]

I did all this because I wanted to avoid ever being today miselimination if I was wrong on redtea

how does making yourself look painfully like redtea's scumbuddy do this

[Cephrir]

i skimmed redtea's iso. i am awarding tejate one (1) townpoint. the rest of it is worthless

[Cephrir]

my "people of interest" list who i will try to prioritize analyzing for interactions before i inevitably run out of energy consists of morph, shirou and meg. i will admit, the prospect of reading shirou's iso fills me with despair

[Cephrir]

perhaps i don't have to read the isos, i can just ctrl-f redtea

here are some points of interest

Want to focus on redtea and ydrasse but they don't exist so

It feels like scum is very much happy with the focus being on inactive slots so I feel like between Tejate/Ydrasse/redtea there is at most 1 scum.

this second post feels like it could come from a Team Inactive

no
I misread the elim threshold
VOTE: Redtea

this is the fourth vote aka E-3

redtea flip gives good info
tejate flip gives good info

redtea is scummier than tejate

ergo kill redtea

Missed those posts in particular

and yet impressively you still haven't commented on them

You seem to have misunderstood what I meant by quick elimination.

I was referring to quick eliminations from daystart rather than just fast forming wagons. Hence the allusion to mechsolves, I want any cops to be able to out their result before an elimination. Besides Quick lims off of daystart isn't enjoyable for anyone involved.

Besides the redtea wagon has been fairly reasonably considered an option for a while for me at least
It's a difficult to read slot that I think has a decent chance of being scum. Especially considering the interactions of GL and Shirou about it it gives us something at least.

there does not appear to be any trajectory between "scum are targeting inactives" and "actually i've always been fine with a redtea wagon"

i guess i should do nsg too

[Cephrir]

she basically does nothing with him ever

[Cephrir]

i want to comment on the debate occurring but i don't think what i have to say would be helpful so i am choosing to shut up

[Cephrir]

well, it's more that i don't think it's what you need to hear right now, so i will save it for when you're in a better emotional space

[Cephrir]

also i believe we established that i am not a cool kid

[Cephrir]

it just would've been nice if there were evidence of that thought process occurring in real time in your posts. instead, you have what a former math teacher of mine would call "transmission issues". or a discontinuity.

[Cephrir]

this is the first post from morph I felt like it comes from town!morph more often than scum!morph?

moral high ground...would scum use that specific kind of word? I think they would fake indignation but this way of phrasing it would be peculiar as scum I think

this is exactly the sort of thing scum could get genuinely indignant about

[Cephrir]

it just would've been nice if there were evidence of that thought process occurring in real time in your posts. instead, you have what a former math teacher of mine would call "transmission issues". or a discontinuity.

Who is this to?

Meg

[Cephrir]

i skimmed morph's iso for redtea interactions.

they have been remarkably consistent about being anti-him, and seemed to get frustrated with him on a few occasions.

this doesn't really make me feel any kind of way. i guess i wanted to see them put forward a passionate case, particularly d1 as they observed they were not getting their wagon. i do understand that this was a tall order given that redtea did not do anything to case.

i feel like i've seen them get passionate and emotional about the way they are being read repeatedly and have been happy to wield guilt like a cudgel to get me to stop wanting to vote them (they will surely do this again in response to this post), but that passion hasn't appeared anywhere around solving the game afaict. i don't really understand why townthem is so affronted about scumreads on them when the game they have played is not particularly exceptional.

[Cephrir]

like i've been not focusing here because every time i do they come back with making me feel bad about it. i don't like that!

[Cephrir]

VOTE: morph

look i will feel bad if this misses but ive given so much room for you to prove this isn't the game i get to catch you. at this point i think it just is.

pls don't bite my head off.

[Cephrir]

I can't immediately see anything wrong with this plan.

[Cephrir]

I think I'm probably opposed to investigating fua at the moment. Presumably no one actually would, but I'm tempted to remove it from the table.

[Cephrir]

the persecution complex.

[Cephrir]

adding my voice to the chorus re: would happily bet the game on enchant town

[Cephrir]

VOTE: no elim

not my preference, but it doesn't appear i have an choice

[Cephrir]

Interesting.

[Cephrir]

That’s a good point. Maybe Shirou is actually being postured to be killed and I’m just misunderstanding the situation. It would explain why implo has low value targets like Morph and Meg. Me having Tejate compared to implo and Shirou also doesn’t make much sense since I was townreading him before this.

If you feel like the groups are bad, you and/or I could create new ones.

[Cephrir]

I think we certainly can't end the day without GL in Shirou's pool unless Shirou expressly agrees to it

[Cephrir]

I realize I should be decreeing whether we elim today or not but I legit dont know which is better.

And maybe the arguments about it will be telling later.

[Cephrir]

Whatever the plan was before people started trying to change it last page was the only viable nolim plan I have seen.

[Cephrir]

Shirou: GL/Meg
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/numberQ/Enchant

This one I think.

But perhaps I should just make them so we're not listening to a question mark.

[Cephrir]

I feel like shirou is just scum and we're doing mental gymnastics to explain why he isn't.

[Cephrir]

so, this is the pools we're doing right?

Shirou: Morph/Implo
Fua: Shirou/GL/NQ
Implo: Meg/Tejate

except fua agreed to leash themselves to GL, so maybe Implo can have me in their pool and I do get NQ.

PS: Implo I really think you shouldn't investigate me as you'll probably be eliminated in disbelief but it's up to you I guess.

Therefore...

Shirou: Morph/Implo/NQ
Fua: GL
Implo: Meg/Tejate

?

we are not removing you from the pools just because you don't feel like being in them lmao

[Cephrir]

Shirou: GL/Meg
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/numberQ/Enchant

can we just do this.

i don't feel like there are actually good reasons for the changes and complications.

[Cephrir]

Of the two, Shirou is my pick.

huh

me coming out with an inno and soft inno on both of my yesterday suspects didn't mellow you guys out at all?

I thought there was a small chance people could go "oh maybe shirou's actually town" considering how suboptimal my play right now would be as scum, but hmm, I guess I was just daydreaming kkkkkk

oh my, you all are so cold...

I was at least thinking about it but then you went ahead and posted this! :/

[Cephrir]

Anyway, I think theres a pretty good chance at this point that the game isn't as easy as it currently appears, but there are certainly still non cleared players I'm suspicious of, so possibly I don't need to start thinking about that yet!

[Cephrir]

I should actually start thinking about NQ again at some point even though I'd really prefer not to/being trusted has been rather nice.

[Cephrir]

i see we're losing our absolute minds out here today.

[Cephrir]

fua and Tejate being the only ones today to still be on the "let's lim Shirou" train from yesterday is really giving me confidence in my solve tbh. I don't think anyone else has been advocating for that, unless I missed something.

I mean if you gave me a gun with one bullet right now things wouldn't be looking great for Shirou.

[Cephrir]

Potentially miseliminating either me or NQ right now is actually...suboptimal now to be honest...and it actually saddens me that I must yet again defend myself for the day due to trying to give town the best chances to win...I know this is LAMIST but it's a true le sigh moment for me.

Why it's suboptimal? Because if you correctly nail the scum in NQ/Shirou, the other one eventually becomes conftown. You're potentially wasting an entire elimination for nothing if you get who is the likely scum in us wrong.

And well...*smirk*. If we're ever both town, it means Ceph/Meg is automatically town, and therefore, FUA MUST BE SCUM if the setup is 5:5.

HAHAHAHA

Oh my, there was no need for paranoia!

As long as the cop in Meg/Ceph checks one of me/NQ, we would eventually know with *certainty* if fua is scum or not I suppose.

whiplash meter: 11/10

[Cephrir]

VOTE: NQ

i guess my thought is, who is his partner here such that he has to attempt this ridiculous play? they'd have to be locked out, right?

[Cephrir]

VOTE: NQ

i guess my thought is, who is his partner here such that he has to attempt this ridiculous play? they'd have to be locked out, right?

I literally can't see a town motivation behind his line of thought at all. Zero attempt to actually scumhunt and instead basing an entire read off of WIFOM. Like. Is it impossible to believe that a doctor saved a cop claim?

it's possible that i'm skimming today and assumed there was another reason in there somewhere

[Cephrir]

I'm leaning more towards Shirou still. While morph has indeed not made me really think they were town at any point, Shirou's over the top defense of redtea feels worse right now.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Shirou

[Cephrir]

I'm never voting fua either, so good luck with that

[Cephrir]

@Ceph/Meg how interested in listening to my mech plan are you right now?

and also spicy question, if I was the elimination today and flipped town, would you let me direct your hypothetical cop targets tonight?

i recognize that i should probably read it

maybe

[Cephrir]

I think having me heal meg makes perfect sense. I'm less sure that letting shirou out of the like so I can check him makes sense; in particular I am not sure why he merits this treatment over GL or morph

[Cephrir]

I'm interested in what fua and morph think of all this mech shit. It makes my head hurt.

[Cephrir]

I tend to think the idea that scum would walk into a 7/5 for no reason is kind of a pipe dream

[Cephrir]

Fine. I don't care.

VOTE: morph

Just make sure the night plan is extremely clear please.

[Cephrir]

@Ceph, Meg

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

Ceph investigates me (if he's a cop)
Meg investigates NQ (if they're a cop)

Ceph protects Meg (if he's doctor)
Meg protects Ceph (if they're a doctor)

Would you agree to that?

Because if you don't, even if it's a bit suboptimal I may be forced to concede on me being eliminated today and just self-vote to make both of you listen to a mech plan upon my flip. I think that would still be better than not coordinating properly as we're right now (for example checking NQ is kinda useless if we eliminate me).

Do like this.

Ok.

[Cephrir]

I'm a night 5 cop unfortunately

And I'm going back to sleep now

[Cephrir]

ok so immediately, and im still on 144 here but have skimmed some bits, i can be pretty sure it's 2 of nq/gl/shirou.

the shot on meg seems like a point for nq/gl, but i do kind of believe shirou has balls of steel given his repeated attempts to elim himself

[Cephrir]

i don't see myself supporting a GL elim today in any case, it just makes no sense

[Cephrir]

UNVOTE:

@Ceph

Check me tonight to confirm Tejate and myself.

After one of NQ/Shirou dies can we lim GL?

i'll agree to this if everyone's cool with it

[Cephrir]

fua, you seemed to see something that made enchant 100% town at some point earlier in the game. i am strongly townreading him, but i didn't see the thing you saw; do you want to talk about that today to remove any doubt?

[Cephrir]

Hypothetical N4 Ceph guilty on Shirou would not change the gamestate dramatically for him here

interesting proposition

his partner would clearly not be you in this situation, i think?

[Cephrir]

Shirou's ONLY option today is to lim NQ since he townreads GL and that would allow Ceph to check any one of us three which would solve and win the game.

i seem to recall that shirou arrives here by the present

[Cephrir]

Good thing I'm not voting NQ. Shirou is posting blatant TMI.

i'm too dumb to figure this out on my own.

[Cephrir]

Ah, to be honest I don't care that much anymore.

you clearly do lol

[Cephrir]

im basically not planning to have an ego about my check. that possibility died with morph (and if i was any early night, i obviously would have checked them)

im not sure whether leashing me to just one target is better than having 2 options, but am probably willing to roll with the consensus, particularly what fua and tejate want since they are prob town

[Cephrir]

oh, and enchant too.

[Cephrir]

fua, you seemed to see something that made enchant 100% town at some point earlier in the game. i am strongly townreading him, but i didn't see the thing you saw; do you want to talk about that today to remove any doubt?

Ydrasse replaced out because Morph called them useless. They claimed doctor on D1 without being prompted (sort of like me) and their reaction to what a townie said in public (leaving altogether) is not something I could see scum ever doing despite Shirou's attempt to widen the lim pool, especially since Ydrasse wasn't even being especially scumread. Also Enchant hasn't done anything that diverges from his town game. Source: I've seen him as scum twice.

i see

[Cephrir]

naturally, the "lim me" plan somehow finds its way into dissolving into a supposedly objectively better alternative. it always seems to do this

[Cephrir]

To be fair, anyone flipping scum confirms me

[Cephrir]

Anyone else

Brain is hard

[Cephrir]

I can live with that

[Cephrir]

sure

VOTE: shirou

[Cephrir]

how would you like me to use my investigation?

[Cephrir]

Actually.

@Ceph Why did you switch to Shirou so easily? Don’t you see a merit in being mech confirmed so your word is law compared to the potential WIFOM tomorrow?

Switch? How did I switch?

I just think shirou's the most likely scum. I already made noises to that effect but was willing to go along with his plan if people I trust thought it was better.

Also if my word becomes law I'll have to try.

[Cephrir]

how strange everyone dislikes themselves being the elim we are really gaming now folks

[Cephrir]

I dont really see the point in me investigating nq. It makes more sense to get a result that comes with less doubt.

[Cephrir]

i feel like it's remarkable that players who need to doubtcast fua in order to win if they are scum are like, all doing that

[Cephrir]

& tbh i feel like the lack of doubt against me could me attempts to pocket me & indicative that they know nq will flip town

i guess i could be reading too much into that though

[Cephrir]

Ceph, since there's no way we can be on the same team, do you have a preference for elim? And if we went with Shirou, what do you think of his townflip plan?

I prefer to elim Shirou here, but if you and fua are united I will go with whatever you decide.

You mean his plan for me to investigate NQ? I think I've already said that I think that plan is bad.

[Cephrir]

i feel like it's remarkable that players who need to doubtcast fua in order to win if they are scum are like, all doing that

NQ did that, though...

True enough. I think all three of them did, at least for a hot minute.

[Cephrir]

The more I think about it the more I feel like eliminating NQ is just the mechanically correct play.

Alright.

VOTE: NQ

[Cephrir]

If we elim NQ my plan is to investigate fua no matter what he flips. If you object to that, speak up.

[Cephrir]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

"hey friends, who should i kill tonight?"

-_-

[Cephrir]

i mean, you claim it's an important question but how is it an important question to town-you when there is nothing you can do about it anyway.

[Cephrir]

To be clear Ceph, same plan as before, just expanding your pool to allow you to check Shirou or fua.

okay

[Cephrir]

So we are in twilight then? Oh.

Yep

which why it's also kiiindaaa scummy for me to want to change the plans and make Ceph maybe cop me

but hey

since I'm already so scum read anyway, wink wink, please check me if possible Ceph?

I PROMISE you it's a green result.

(kkkk, this is totally gonna make him NOT check me isn't it? but maybe if I act so openly sus like this he may check me for the wrong reasons anyway, which would still be a win in my book)

you make my head hurt

[Cephrir]

Damn Tejate, you wanted to be mafia in this game?

Look at how easily things can go wrong for mafia depending on mech stuff. I was the opposite and even though I'm fine with being mafia in most games nowadays, I always prayed for a town pm here. It's a shame I didn't ge-

...

*cough*

I mean I'm happy I got one yeah

(CEPH DOES THIS POST MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE CHECKING ME RATHER THAN FUA YET?)

listen. i hate you.

[Cephrir]

Not gonna lie, I secretly want to die because I kind of want to see how the ghosts are doing. I miss when Amazonian was alive.

Ghosts are probably shit talking us a lot for being dumbasses. Especially now that Morph is there.

morph had plenty of chances to solve while they were alive

im still a bit disappointed tbh

[Cephrir]

Fua is innocent

[Cephrir]

I think Ceph is probably the mechanically best elim option for today because we either win or have a confirmed townie in the final three.

Isnt this true no matter who we elim?

[Cephrir]

Meh, ok, I'm just glad it's over

[Cephrir]

I felt that a gambit was the only way we were ever winning this game. I stand by that.

[Cephrir]

Also, the setup feels just sort of brutal as scum... you have to watch yourself get slowly boxed into a corner and all you can do is cry about it

Redtea not doing anything was an almost insurmountable obstacle