Open 849 - Panic Room! -- Game over!

[Aristeia]

I've read a few snippets of this game while bored but I will re-read everything now

UNVOTE:

[Aristeia]

re-read everything and my first guess for the team is fire - skitter - catboi

VOTE: fireisredsir

If you pull up skitter/catboi's isos - there's a marked lack of discussion of bella/fire's actual alignment despite engagement around the slot which feels susp.

[Aristeia]

hi ari! : )

hello fire! good to see you again!

[Aristeia]

hi skitter ! !

I agree on roden's post about bella repping out as an alpha zombie feeling v townie :>

[Aristeia]

- preflips are bad
- using them to assume that anyone is the bomb is bad

mmm I somewhat disagree - I think we can have higher chance of hitting the bomb on d1 if we use some preflips/vca

[Aristeia]

Although i'm kinda baffled why you think behaving that way towards the slot is partner-y or why you think scum-me and scum-catbou both choose to interact with a partner in the exact same way

Also why do u scumread fire? Because of bella?

Roden's point about bella makes sense to me.

The weird place you and catboi treat the slot.

and fire's posts just don't feel very like town!fire.

[Aristeia]

it's not really about the same way - it's like a negative void space where a read should be but isn't.

[Aristeia]

I guess me and ydra agree that fire is likely the alpha but we disagree about the partner equity but since hitting the bomb is an auto-win it doesn't really matter who the partners are if we get the bomb right.

[Aristeia]

it's not really about the same way - it's like a negative void space where a read should be but isn't.

I didnt think there was enuf to read bella off of off that one post. It was a bad post but didnt lock-scum her or anything, and she left before i could ask her abt it more

ok fair but I still don't really know what your read on the slot is and fire's posted a few times already

[Aristeia]

Oh i thought i said he was townie? Did i not say that?

um I don't see it in your iso.

can you expand on why you read him as town?

[Aristeia]

same conclusions from vastly different angles

to me this actually increases his bomb equity as it expands the number of possible universes with bomb!fire

[Aristeia]

ttyl dear!

[Aristeia]

If there are more interactions with more players that point towards Fire!Bomb - it decreases the probability of any specific team solve being correct but it increases the probability that fire is the bomb.

Perhaps I am wrong about my teamread of Fire!bomb and Ydra is correct about her teamread of Fire!bomb, but that still means Fire is the bomb.

[Aristeia]

he has a lot less confidence than his completed town game

[Aristeia]

Fire Iso

his style here is a lot more proactive and decisive - here he feels more noncommital/careful/worried

[Aristeia]

1. Do you think I deliberately avoid a teammate in that way?

I think you'd be fine bussing him if he wasn't a bomb.

[Aristeia]

they townread you because you were confident

you weren't confident because they townread you

[Aristeia]

If there are more interactions with more players that point towards Fire!Bomb - it decreases the probability of any specific team solve being correct but it increases the probability that fire is the bomb.

Perhaps I am wrong about my teamread of Fire!bomb and Ydra is correct about her teamread of Fire!bomb, but that still means Fire is the bomb.

No, that's not how teamreads work, you're like starting with the assumption that fire is bomb and working backwardsa

Do u scumread me or cat independantly of fire?
Or only as potential partners

I'm just talking about the p-value for Fire being a bomb.

The more team-reads/theories with Fire being a bomb pop out, the more likely it becomes he is a bomb, not less likely.

I do scumread you/cat independently of the Fire associatives.

[Aristeia]

No offense ari but i think ur fire bombread is somewhat flimsy, as if your reasoning for ur teamread
Pedit i dont really think it works that way
Ans i'm interested in ur scumreads of me/cat

Catboi feels like he's less motivated than how he feels when he's town - he feels like tired mafia.

You don't feel like you believe in your yeet push.

[Aristeia]

I'm willing to give cat a bit

because?

[Aristeia]

see that's weird to me because that's not how you treated demotivated him last time >.>

[Aristeia]

like look at your iso here:

viewtopic.php?t=88427&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

and compare it to your iso in this game vis-a-vis Catboi

why wouldn't I have worries you two are S/S?

[Aristeia]

Kinda have a gut feeling that Fire is the venge bomb, or I guess Alpha Zombie with this flavor

What's giving u thay vibe? Or at least, why alpha zombie specifically?

It's very angle shooty. Replace out after going VLA pings me. The slot was already getting scum read but wasn't going to be around to defend themself. If town or a Goon then it would be just be whatever, the wagon would probably dissipate anyway. But if you're the game ending role there's going to be a sense of responsibility and pressure to play well enough to not auto lose Day 1. So replacing out makes sense if you don't want to feel like you're letting your team down.

Yeet's read on the slot also feels off. They're hard defending them on very little, but Fire is hard scum reading them back. It's a weird interaction that makes me think it's just damage control to give Fire better standing among the potential elim choices for the day. Yeet cuts off the Fire wagon before it can stabilize and starts taking the heat instead by making odd/chaotic posts. But because Fire is one of the first players voting Yeet and cased them early, it won't look bad for Fire in the case of a red Yeet flip. It would be reasonable to say Yeet is just trying to pocket Fire in that case.

Yes, this assumes a lot and I'm seeing associatives/pre-flipping two people way too early. But their interactions don't feel natural. Fire's case on Yeet comes out too hard and too fast, and Yeet isn't reacting to any of it and is just repeating "Fire town" over and over.

Okay fine, towny post

Being the first one to say this is +town.

VOTE: Yeet

I don't really care, why did you think that, even if momentarily, and why did you move on from it?

Not letting Yeet dodge the question here shows a solvey mindset.

For the last time, I am not demotivated this game, or feigning it. I have been intentionally reserved but that's not the same thing.

I just don't think scum makes this post.

1. There's no reason why S!catboi wouldn't say that about your post if he thinks it is Townie - he also does not support your conclusion and vote for Fire but he didn't express why at the time.

2. If Yeet is town and Fire is a Bomb then he has every reason to push one end of the pair and not the other - flipping yeet!town would protect fire!bomb

3. I don't think you have any basis for your third point, you'd have to explain it to me clearer why scum!him doesn't make such a post.

[Aristeia]

because he is mafia and umlaut is not in the scum PT with him.

[Aristeia]

The day 1 herosolve attempts are going to make me lose my mind. I cannot emphasize enough that trying to worldbuild around elaborate theories is significantly more likely to be wrong and unhelpful than making more individualized reads.

Ari's herosolve reads like a bad joke which makes me doubt its sincerity.

wolfy pop in

[Aristeia]

@HEM

if you're convinced fire!scum is covering for um!bomb, perhaps you could help us with yeeting Fire!scum? Surely if Fire flips Goon - we can get Um!bomb tommorrow.

[Aristeia]

I think I've made it clear I do scum-read you. The bomb is also Mafia.

[Aristeia]

my mistake - sorry!

[Aristeia]

1. Catboi doesn't need to say anything at all tbh. To me it shows a town mindset because of the reasons why he thinks it's townie. He doesn't explain the read but you can tell why he thinks my post was townie.

2. I mean, yeah? If those were confirmed facts then sure, but I'm not about to pre-flip 4 out of 11 slots like that.

3. It's just a behavioral read. I just simply don't think he would feel the need to say that and then continue to reiterate that as scum.

Have you read many games where Catboi is mafia? because I don't think any of these are good reasons to townread him because they feel like things he could easily fake.

[Aristeia]

@HEM

if you're convinced fire!scum is covering for um!bomb, perhaps you could help us with yeeting Fire!scum? Surely if Fire flips Goon - we can get Um!bomb tommorrow.

i still think i can get an umlaut wagon started and i still think scum!yeet + bomb!fire isn't likely. i wanna go bomb hunting.

how do you read umlaut?

I don't really have a very good track record of reading umlaut

If I had to guess off the top of my head I'd say town because I think his scum play is a bit better than what's present here.

[Aristeia]

he's fairly decent at faking associatives, faking hunting, faking interest, some of his reads do end up TMIy in the way that fire described.

[Aristeia]

I also don't think he would draw bomb and just not put in any effort in this kind of player list? If he's goon I think he would've gotten bussed for cred already.

[Aristeia]

Your scum read on me is weird and inconsistent. First you think I'm scum for not being proactive or trying to play the hero. Then I start posting and put forth a hero solve, and you scum read me for leaving my lurk phase and attacking LHF.

do you think he's actually going to yeet you successfully out of this game?

[Aristeia]

VOTE: Enchant

I will miss Catboi ~.~

[Aristeia]

i think ari is town

are you town though? :<

[Aristeia]

is it bad that my paranoid mind thinks fire/skitter shot catboi to get me off their scent rather than for me/catboi to continue fighting about nonsense

[Aristeia]

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

can you expand on your reasoning for wanting to yeet this slot?

[Aristeia]

I'm not very good at changing my mind about things so it feels pro-scum for them to leave Catboi alive for him to fight with me rather than to shoot him esp if he is on a wagon that flipped a town.

It feels like they removed him for a reason.

The first 2 inoculated are confirmed innocent but the third is not so I could see this happening because the person recruited into the room yesterday was mafia.

or perhaps they had a read that Catboi was reserved because he was a mason.

or perhaps they wanted to remove him to remove his voice because he was blocking pushes they want.

I like to think about why things happen.

[Aristeia]

if i'm reading the setup correctly

we start with 2 town inoculated, they inoculated someone yesterday(unknown alignment)

so if this person they inoculated yesterday is a mafia goon or mafia bomb, they could shoot catboi(town inoculated) and today the mafia inoculated gets to pick someone to inoculate.

if they inoculate another mafia player - they could simply bus the bomb and win because there will be only 1 town inoculated and 2 mafia inoculated

[Aristeia]

The Inoculated (recruit) begins the game in the neighborhood along with the Inoculator (recruiter).
The most recent Inoculated is always the one with the ability to Inoculate (recruit).

actually I might not be reading this correctly

@Mod is the Inoculator always the same person? does it pass to the most recent inoculated player after Inoculator dies?

[Aristeia]

The Inoculated (recruit) begins the game in the neighborhood along with the Inoculator (recruiter).
The most recent Inoculated is always the one with the ability to Inoculate (recruit).

actually I might not be reading this correctly

@Mod is the Inoculator always the same person? does it pass to the most recent inoculated player after Inoculator dies?

The most recent person to join the neighborhood gains the ability to recruit next day.

For example, if I get neighborized day 1, I choose the recruit for day 2.

@Mod

ok so for example if the game starts with

Player A inoculator
Player B inoculated

and A incolulates Player C...

Will the new roles be :

Player A Inoculated
Player B Inoculated
Player C Inoculator ?

As in if Player A/B die, they flip as Town Inoculated?

[Aristeia]

If mafia recruited, we ARE fucked, as they can enforce Draw at minimum.

well no because we can always try to avoid the bomb and kill the bomb last in that case.

[Aristeia]

Inoculation is compulsive. If no inoculation has occurred by the time of the elimination, the mods will randomly select a non-inoculated player BEFORE the elimination occurs.
An inoculation given *after* a hammer will not be processed. Inoculation must occur before elimination. In this case the mods will randomly inoculate.

also this rule is why your quickhammer is extremely bad enchant :<

you should always give a chance for claim and for the inoculator to finalize decision.

if we randomly got a mafia added into the inoculation pool it is extremely bad :/

[Aristeia]

do you want to play this game seriously or do you want to compulsive quickhammer everything?

[Aristeia]

I have very little patience for behavior that is borderline game throwing for the sake of "meta" or whatever you are doing this for.

I have a very minimum expectation that you are playing to your win condition.

[Aristeia]

gg!

unfortunate we could not read the rest of this lovely story you were writing : (


wp scum & town.

[Aristeia]

gg!

unfortunate we could not read the rest of this lovely story you were writing : (


wp scum & town.

[Aristeia]

ggs! <3

unfortunate we could not read the rest of this lovely story you were writing : (


wp scum & town.

[Aristeia]

Tthanks for this experience, really made the whole thing feel worthwhile. Absolute shining stars. Glad I signed up for this one.

: (

sorry you feel this way. it was fun to play with you while it lasted.

[Aristeia]

Fuck. Sorry, everyone.

Given I got the (in retrospect terrible) Inocilation choice in just minutes before the elim I don't feel like "we had plenty of time" is really a reasonable complaint though. Wish I'd chosen better.

putting someone at E-1 before you and your partner finalized an inoc choice is really bad play and incredibly frustrating for everyone else.

I think even inoculating the dead person who is being eliminated is better atp than hipshooting.

hope you get better soon.

[Aristeia]

ggwp! i guess i should have been more careful about voting. is the correct play there to wait for the inoculator to claim who they recruited and then lim there if there is no cc?

realistically we needed to get all of town online and ready to blitz whoever the recruit was.

and it would have to be a coordinated town quickhammer at a time when monkey was offline so he could not submit a recruit choice.

leaving votes on was very bad

[Aristeia]

it would've been nearly impossible to do imo