Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Hiraki]

did you guys want to wait for me to vote the obvious scum?

[Hiraki]

what is your opinion on hiraki, furtive?

what is the purpose of this?

[Hiraki]

okay last point and then i'm gonna sleep on this game for the night - does anyone TR infinity?

[Hiraki]

Sheeping conftown onto a lim target is a severely underrated strategy and towns should do much more often than they do

People are just hesitant to vote against their own personal reads, but it's often correct to do so to achieve a fully town-influenced elimination

So yeah, I'd be down for sheeping Hiraki today as a concept.

Does Hiraki have historically good reads?

it hasn't been that long jeez

Sheeping conftown onto a lim target is a severely underrated strategy and towns should do much more often than they do

People are just hesitant to vote against their own personal reads, but it's often correct to do so to achieve a fully town-influenced elimination

So yeah, I'd be down for sheeping Hiraki today as a concept.

Does Hiraki have historically good reads?

Without really knowing about Hiraki's read strength, probably better than the average D1 scum elimination rate?

if im being honest, D1 is usually just luck anyway but i am a pretty lucky

We could even just give Hiraki the 'power' to veto what we all decide to do for the day and make his own decision if he wants to play around that

i don't, i find more power in the collective group - even if it's bad

Gamma's posting reads as genuine and solving-oriented

i don't like how this reads

Let’s kill enchant.
Let’s never kill gamma.
I’ll prob never kill csf

can you help me off of CSF? i didn't vote but i was pretty ready to do so tbh. don't think enchant is a bad idea

after reading, i think enchant is better than CSF. CSF just doesn't have a lot of good posts. BBT was an early game lean scum and has not improved either - it does not help that the sole vote on BBT is CSF but that is an early guess - not a read of both players.

VOTE: Enchant

[Hiraki]

can you help me off of CSF? i didn't vote but i was pretty ready to do so tbh. don't think enchant is a bad idea

after reading, i think enchant is better than CSF. CSF just doesn't have a lot of good posts. BBT was an early game lean scum and has not improved either - it does not help that the sole vote on BBT is CSF but that is an early guess - not a read of both players.

can you rephrase this part a bit? i'm not understanding your thoughts on CSF. ty!!

i'm not either tbh - he's not really scummy and other scummy people seem to be on him which can go either way (no pre-flip determination here)

it hasn't been that long jeez

I'm not being mean, I genuinely don't know because I've never seriously evaluated your read quality as town

there are no day vigs in this game yet you're firing shots at me

A bit astonishing you think I would be despite my join date.

i think you're town here (altho i am not good at that) and i'm confused at this flex

Enchant seems like he has zero interest of playing this game, I think that's scummy. And the IC is also voting there. So why not.

ty

Enchant seems like he has zero interest of playing this game, I think that's scummy. And the IC is also voting there. So why not.

If enchant were to flip right now what information do we get from each alignment? (excluding wagon analysis ofc)

i want to flip scum, not alignment

yeah this whole exchange is a little weird to me - it's a weird half-defense

Extremely bad read, but the creativity of it feels genuine. So there's that I guess.

agreed - i was cringing reading those 3 posts

For one, scumreads are generally more difficult to fake for scum than townreads are.

i don't agree with this but this is not a conversation for this game

[Hiraki]

Do you have questions to me?

no

Hiraki doesn't seem like they want to dictate things, though, they seem like they want the day to play out normally.

i said this after so i don't like how this is phrased at all

[Hiraki]

I take the above back, you did say that in 318. Not sure what you think is wrong with my post.

it's not good phrasing. i understand what you're saying but i don't like the point of view it implies

[Hiraki]

He's just prod dodging now. Do I need to start try harding?

[Hiraki]

Sorry all - had some very very random stuff pop up in the last two days which stopped me from posting but I'm back for good now - realizing that the timing is not great here. Reading up now.

[Hiraki]

It's just that I feel like he'd be capable of storing more enthusiasm as Town.

This is exactly my basis.

I nominate BBT to be pressured. I think they have gotten away doing not a whole lot this game and I wanna make em play.

But I am not everyone so yall do ur own thing

He just did a ton on Page 21??????

I don't think furtive flips scum but I have a lot more equity now that froggo will. Starting to get more TvT vibes from furtive v BBT and it seems much more likelier that froggo is scum in that instance.

The problem I have with this BBT case is that the basis is that BBT doesn't want to talk about two players. What is the issue with that? Being sketchy isn't scummy. He's just focused in different areas.

No, I genuinely scum read them but their response to me felt super towny. It just flipped my read almost on the spot. I wanted to leave it open to see if anyone would try and continue my push on Frog before I gave my opinion but they didn't.

We should revisit this tomorrow.

I would like to re-read Aisa, Mala, and Dunn. These are the three slots I don't have solid opinions on at this point that I think I should.

[Hiraki]

Ppl going 'Doctor, no lim' without actually considering the town utility of a scummy doctor claim with no other PRs claimed and no obvious night kill

It's close to useless at the moment if true and will probably lead to us just still having Enchant on the table as an option around D4.

Not even that - it causes a massive amount of WIFOM from all angles. If you think about the scenarios here, this is probably the best scum play and the worst case scenario for town.

For scum, if town claims doc and doesn't die tonight or even if they're roleblocked, town's claim comes into question again. As scum in the same scenario, you practically play the same way. I am really trying to think of the utility that Enchant has at this point and it's near zero.

Enchant noting this is not townpoints btw.

If Enchant flips red, go for Froggo next. If not, still highly consider Froggo.

[Hiraki]

Hot take, scum doesn't usually say "goddamn, I wish I had done this scummy thing when I had the chance". I'm guessing froggo is Town.

Why would hammering Enchant have been scummy?

Quickhammering Enchant once he claimed Doctor, if he flipped Doctor, would have been a little bit scummy. The fact that froggo said something that made him draw heat, and now is like "I wish I did a scummy thing so that I wouldn't get heat" is superficially a very bad look (because scum really doesn't want heat on them), but I think it's actually something Town thinks too, and Town is more likely to actually write it out.

I think this is completely false but it's a difference of opinion. I've used this same logic as scum before.

Froggo is my lowkey SK read, they're scummy but not really paired with anyone because everyone susses them.

I still think the connections between Enchant and Froggo are pretty obvious if Enchant flips red. I also don't think a lot of Froggo's analysis is genuine.

who fills the gap if Encanto is town?

I would look in Aisa/Dunn. The people saying that Enchant doesn't give us information are absolutely correct. I really only see the Froggo connection. Froggoscum equity goes down majorly if Enchant is town. However, even after at E-1, the slot:

- Hasn't done anything significant - regardless of pressure (claiming is not significant here since it's basically procedure at E-1)
- Is now claiming a PR that could go either way in terms of the claim
- Claims that this is nothing outside of standard play when people have clearly gone back and shown that it is (including myself in my own personal look)

So I don't really want to entertain the idea that the slot will flip green because that would be a waste of time.

[Hiraki]

I don't really have too much equity in Malascum btw. I don't think that slot is very townie but there is at least something there. Dunn and Aisa fluctuate hard on my radar.

[Hiraki]

I also don't think a lot of Froggo's analysis is genuine.

is this anything I can refute or just a vibe you get from me?

It's not a vibe, it's my opinion.

[Hiraki]

I vaguely dislike Dunn complaining about Aisa's memes on page 27, and this is moreso a note to myself that I need too re-evalue Dunn tomorrow.

I read this as kind of lackluster fake distancing tbh.

[Hiraki]

If Enchant is scum, I have a hard time seeing this as a partner. If scum saw their buddy who'd just claimed Doctor get additional heat and get their claimed disbelieved, I don't think they post a post like this one.

how???????????????????????????

[Hiraki]

I vaguely dislike Dunn complaining about Aisa's memes on page 27, and this is moreso a note to myself that I need too re-evalue Dunn tomorrow.

I read this as kind of lackluster fake distancing tbh.

Dunn/Aisa distancing or Lucian/Dunn distancing?

Oops - missed this. The former.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Froggodoggo

[Hiraki]

I read everything but there's a lot of fluff. Lucian is still townie but is incorrect (which is fine) but Dunn is getting more red. Everyone else is about the same.

[Hiraki]

I don’t feel like this table would provoke him to try to look town early so I feel good about my initial TR there

Not sure if I'm following what you're putting down.

I do think my Townread on froggo did go down quite a bit. The "damn I should've hammered!" read I had yesterday is probably not that Townie, considering Enchant did flip scum.

froggo also fits in the group of players that didn't vote Enchant up to claim, but did vote him after the claim.

True but I had intent to put Enchant at E-1 until furtive beat me to it

New term: Intent to E-1.

That's not a thing LMFAO

It is a thing but it's a very dumb thing, agreed.

Someone vote this guy off with me. I made all these posts with valuable information and they pinpoint one little thing and try to make me look bad because of it. No thoughts on anything else I've just put out??

Pedit don't remember exactly but I would imagine I wanted Enchant to start playing the game already and wanted to give them 6 hours to change my mind. I think I felt bad for em

Please tell me this slot has been run up now.

I think this slot is the reason why Mala is killed btw.

Infinity is today's elim. Don't let them out of the spotlight by creating a distraction.

I don't think this slot is too good anymore. Can you guide me in the right direction? I don't think a lurker elim is great for today but I've seen worse.

Infinity

nvm no shot of me trying for this slot today

Explanation for this read progression on Enchant would be good

i explained this already right? doc claim was obviously awful and needed to be resolved at some point, and massclaim doesn't necessarily help. like if there's no other doc claim do we leave enchant alive?

I agree with this.

scum claims pr there 100% of the time, and doctor claim is one of the safest since there's no info you have to report and be held accountable for

A doctor also claims doctor 100% of the time in that scenario, too.

I'm struggling to understand your 'Enchant is 100% scum because they claimed Doc' after not being interested in elimming them at all.

I agree with this sentiment

I need to re-read this if true and would be willing to change my vote, begrudgingly, if so.

In terms of what I wanna see, Hiraki’s thoughts is a leading thought, I’d also like some more thought from Dunn as he actually feels rather reactive currently, and Aisa I don’t feel like has been v present today.

i think my thoughts for today are very clear

Is it possible I’m just misreading froggo here? Oh totally but it’s the best I have at this very point in time

you are not and I hope I do not try hard after this

Is this really a s/s interaction? I feel like something along these lines would be much more likely to go into a PT if genuine?

I've seen it more often than not that scum will do this to try and look genuine without the PT.

This is poor reaosning for avoiding the Enchant wagon.

Oh you're SO CLOSE here BBT. Who was the KILL tonight?

Mala had LITERALLY nothing. It's a literal nothing slot. Nothing happened, nothing said, NOTHING. And that's the kill? Okay - where do we go from there?

I'm not dead which means that I'm supposed to think "huh, I'm alive because scum thinks I'm going to cause more errors" - which is pretty illogical for a few reasons.

1) I already got the first scum. Even if I start screwing up (possible), town already has a huge lead right now. Even with an SK, we have a few miselims (not calculating) and a lot of time to screw it up.
2) I don't WIFOM. I really don't like to rethink my logic unless I have a bad feeling about it and I really don't right now. Froggo has been doing this weird stuff solely with furtive and Enchant. Enchant was more of a "let me into your thoughts" situation while furtive is a hostile environment with very little to no thought of changing. It's classic scumplay here. I would even go to the point that when froggo flips red, furtive should be honorary IC - but I won't go that far.

[Hiraki]

They both sat on my wagon pretty much all of D1. Do you think both scum co-ordinate and sit together like that?

yes????????????????????????

[Hiraki]

we can iso furtive again but i don't think the casual-ness to how he's been approaching the game is

that

much of a towntell

i agree but i don't think many of his posts are bad

corny, yes. bad - not really

[Hiraki]

Klick and I are on pretty similar wavelengths here.

[Hiraki]

The only reason not to go for froggo is that he keeps throwing the darts at the wall - which is almost but not as high of a reason to go for him.

[Hiraki]

I see the argument, but if I knew there was a Doctor in the setup I'm not sure I'd out myself as 1-shot Doc just to back Enchant's claim.

No - I don't think that is what Dunn is saying.

Yeah but if he is 1-Shot he would KNOW that there was a Doc in the game and he didn't seem to show this on Enchant's claim (If I'm understanding set up correctly)

Correct - and I'd like to delve into this a little more.

Hi hello why are we killing the doc claim. I would like to have a doctor around tyvm!!

This is the progression that makes

zero

sense in context. If Froggo kept this up, fine but within 10 minutes (as I think Lucian noted - not going to check)

I would like to hammer rn very badly for funsies!! I will again wait, this time 5 hours. Unless 3 players give me permission to do the deed!!

The next question is

why?!?!?

This is someone who Froggo should think is a hair townier than everyone else, hasn't suspected for the ENTIRE day (coincidentally) but Froggo's now willing to play by town's rules rather than follow his own leads? It seems like simpy scumplay to gain towncred to me.

[Hiraki]

Full disclosure - I'm really not good at setups but would it make sense to fullclaim now? Doctor would obviously remain hidden since we know there has to be a doctor but everyone else might help for utility purposes? The only way this hurts is that it confirms to scum if there is an SK (although there does not seem to be one).

The reason I'm thinking this is assuming that Klick is not lying, our letters are currently MVDD XXX (X meaning unknown rather than porn tyvm)

It can't be TTT on the current circumstances unless doctor was successful night 1 and mafia decided to no kill tonight. Both of these seem pretty unlikely to me but again - not great at this stuff. In all cases, the current setup should be that the cop is currently useless because all last 3 X's have godfathers in them assuming we are not in MVDDTTT.

If we're in MVDDXTT, massclaim doesn't really harm anyone because it's pretty much known already since we got rid of the roleblocker & the nilla. Only godfather remains which means that the X is useless.

If we're in MVDDXXX, massclaim now helps town because it assembles more clears. Again - a lot of this relies on not having an SK in the setup which I think we should think about first. I would also like people to poke holes into the above because again - not great at this stuff.

DDDD in any case seems pretty unlikely to me since there's been so many kills but if we are in that setup and we do fullclaim all doctors, it's an auto-town win. So I'm really failing to see the downfall of massclaiming here.

[Hiraki]

Thinking more about it - the above essentially becomes ruined if Klick is an SK but that would rely on mafia NKing N1 which is again pretty unlikely to me.

[Hiraki]

Yeah, that's why I really ruled out Klick SK. If the purpose of Klick SK to claim vig is to cause a 'counterclaim', then that would be awfully strange.

[Hiraki]

No - it's to reduce the POE.

[Hiraki]

I really don't have a preference but I'd like an agreement first. Maybe anyone who objects by tomorrow?

[Hiraki]

The only thing that makes me really question this is that SK!Klick might just be doing this as a gambit since the old fashioned way would probably produce the same result (esp with 2 scum slots left) but that would mean that there's quite a wacky night phase of actions for N1 and N2. It's a bet on my part but I've bet more on worse odds.

[Hiraki]

If it helps BBT, I have more confidence in an Infinity scum flip versus generally anyone else. I'm not sure why everyone is doubting you.

[Hiraki]

Aisa
Gamma
Infinity
CatScratchFever
BBT

lmk if i forgot someone

[Hiraki]

Lucian last.

[Hiraki]

I'm second guessing doc claiming VT.

[Hiraki]

Maybe we come back to it tomorrow though?

[Hiraki]

I need to re-read a little but I am feeling a lot better about Infinity than BBT flipping scum.

[Hiraki]

Yeah, I'm having a hard time with people thinking that BBT is scummy versus BBT is being blunt. I have no problem with the later.

[Hiraki]

I have no interest in Lucian. Infinity - please full claim if you are doctor. This is intent to hammer.

[Hiraki]

If we don't hit SK, Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Doctors only stop 1 kill, are you accounting for that? There's no incentive for Mafia to shoot in elim pool when they and sk can just force any kill through.

The kill target is just going to be whoever Aisa is supposed to heal.

Doesn't that also make the SK and mafia pool very obvious and limits their choices?

[Hiraki]

It does limit their choices, but this plan isn't very effective at protecting conf towns, which is what it's being billed as

???????????????????????????????????????

[Hiraki]

They already said that they're not revealing who they protect - which is the correct action. So either town gets another mis-elim and mafia/SK gambles on an already losing hand (both factions down to one on Day 3) or mafia/SK doesn't do that and has to shoot doctors. They could even shoot one doctor (assuming both are real) by way of not knowing which one will hit which one and then the other becomes very obvious in D5 because they're not dead.

Klick & I are not the important confirmed townies right now.

[Hiraki]

I like a Gamma elim over Lucian. I see the cracks in Lucian's play though so I'm not doubting it. I just think that slot has more than enough good points behind it first.

[Hiraki]

Oh i see we're trying to protect the doctor. All right i think i get it although I'm not particularly convinced but with 18 hours left, time is probably better spent arguing about other things

No - not really. If both doctors die tonight, that would be a success.

[Hiraki]

the thing is that's literally how gamma plays as town

This is partially why I think Gamma is best for today.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Gamma

[Hiraki]

Yeah, I was thinking 2.7% was too high for this scenario. I'd still like to play under those pretenses for today though. I'd like to think the factors in this game actually lead towards the rational probability of two doctors and a one-shot doc to be much higher.

[Hiraki]

I don't mind changing to 50/50 protecting Hiraki and Klick in any eventuality if that seems better.

I'd like to presume we have two doctors. The anomaly here should be if either myself or Klick dies or if there are multiple deaths.

[Hiraki]

dab