Open 866: CK9++ [game over!]

[MathBlade]

Going to catch up after work. Anything in particular people would love my opinion on let me know.

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@dv, I've made my reads, I feel like I'm just bored by this sk/mafia thing. Ask me questions?

I was wondering if the claims had affected anything for you!

Can you point me to the claims please?

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Work issue came up but I plan on building possible viable setups from what I know to be true then seeing if the potential claims are valid and going from there.

Won’t be until late tonight though.

Also hopefully can figure out what scum could have.

Any other things I should look at?

[MathBlade]

@dv, I've made my reads, I feel like I'm just bored by this sk/mafia thing. Ask me questions?

I was wondering if the claims had affected anything for you!

Can you point me to the claims please?

Page 22 has the important stuff imo

Happy scum day before I forget.

Thanks Enchant

Work stuff should be done in an hour or so. Maybe two then will start number crunching.

[MathBlade]

heres game summary:

i am vt
mathblade doctor
enchant bodyguard for sure
deasvail probly bodyguard? should never endgame
frog/bella one of them is strongman sk the other is vt
cakez/mala mafia team

Just got home setting up.

Why do you say Enchant is for sure bodyguard?

[MathBlade]

cuz enchants scum play is not v good

A scum was elimmed D1.

That is not good for scum no?

[MathBlade]

Any other things I should look at?

VCA. That's something I relied on Titus for in the TFT game. I feel like it's also where I'm most likely to have missed something in this game.

I will do that after explicit facts.
I have some setup stuff to look up from OP and flips

[MathBlade]

Alright, i really do think it's SK game and i don't really care cuz role sucks, so i claim.

I am Bodyguard. I protected Frogster N1.

It makes 2 PRs. If we in SK game (which prob is), then there's 2 futures:
1. There's no other PRs. Therefore there's no point in my role and i want to die anyway, so fuck it.
2. There's other PRs (+2 or +4 in fact). These either Investigatives (then good luck to them), or these are protectives/Action manipulations (Unlikely). While it could be M, i doubt so as well can assume there are not.

Btw if you DID roll Doctor, heal me obvs. If you rolled another BG, don't bodyguard me, because i asked, you can't get shot instead of BG getting shot and why would you die instead of me anyway. If you jailkeeper, idk go jail anyone, don't jail me though (again what point).


My role borderline useless, but if they target me, they won't target someone else instead, so my goal as bg kinda complete.
Finally, Unjester wincon.

this is v town and lanmolde probly spew him not scum on d1

I will get to that when I read.

I just have a hard time buying doc and two BGs it seems weird but I need to read the OP so sorting claims is priority.

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Cool so I am running the numbers from known facts:

Absolute set in stone
Vengeful requires one roll between 76-85
I require a role between 66-75

Claims given
Two additional bodyguards
Leaves 3 rolls left.

This leaves mafia goon, joat (dead), god father or tailor, and an SK.

So if there is an SK we are missing two kills

[MathBlade]

May I ask why we are assuming there is an SK? Is there something in the game that indicates this?

[MathBlade]

If there’s a reason why let me know that I am a dum dum and just tell me why please.

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Malakittens
Gamma Emerald
Frogsterking - Vanilla Townie
PookyTheMagicalBear - Vanilla Townie
SirCakez - Vanilla Townie
Bellaphant
DeasVail - Claims role which blocked N1
Enchant - Bodyguard


Bella, Malakittens, Gamma please claim now.

Ahh I missed DV being something that claims blocked. Will need to plug that in and see

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I’ll start with this: Im pretty sure I was roleblocked n1 and it wasn’t scum

@DV can you clarify please?

It’s pretty important to me.

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Oh derp I forgot vengeful on MS is only on elims so we do have evidence of an SK lmao

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MariaR - Vengeful
2. Enchant - Bodyguard
3. CSF - Vanilla Townie
4. Town PR - Doctor
5. Town PR - DV
6. Vanilla Townie
7. Vanilla Townie
8. Vanilla Townie
9. Vanilla Townie
10. Mafia Goon
11. Godfather/Mafia Tailor
12. Mafia JOAT - Lammolde
13. Serial Killer

That’s where I think we have to be. It’s the only way that explains everything.

So unless anyone else wants to claim PR (enchant, DV, and myself) would be locktown based on mechanics.

If we assume one of us lying then two of us have to be lying and boom there is group scum.

I highly doubt that so I am just going to townblock us three.

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We also know that DV claiming blocked by someone doesn’t fit with the available PR roles for scum or town.

This makes me wonder how this would be happening.

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Taking a break here but will be back in a bit

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We know that scum and/or SK killed
MariaR and CSF N1
Roden N2 + likely Frogsterking N2

I say likely because DV’s PR may change things.

If it doesn’t then scum double shot Roden or Frog

Roden was poking at SirCakez a lot end of D2
Frogster leans towards a Pooky or Cakez kill.

The d1 kills
MariaR - viewtopic.php?p=13510163#p13510163 leans toward Bella or Cakez or null kill
BBT - Pooky or Cakez

I really want to see Pooky or Cakez flip today I think barring DV clarifying his role.

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vote count 3.03

with 8 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2022-10-12 01:30:00).

yeet

SirCakez [2]:

Malakittens, Frogsterking

Malakittens [1]:

SirCakez

Frogsterking [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

not voting [4]:

Bellaphant, Enchant, Gamma Emerald, DeasVail

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

flavour

Consider me spiritually on Cakez but I want more conversation.

Not going to post anymore until someone else does.

[MathBlade]

did u read none of what i posted about a strongman sk

I did consider SK

Did you not read my posts?

There’s no blocker town or scum aligned for DV’s claim.

[MathBlade]

if dv is town then the sk must be a strongman

if dv is not town then dv is not endgaming because dv should never survive tonight

If DV is town there’s no blocking PR in the game
If DV is scum then DV’s plan is ???

Neither makes sense

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DV is claiming he knows he was blocked. How?

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The only way I can make it work is (redacted because I want to see if DV claims it and Y happens as a result)

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There’s actually a third option that DV is still town and not bodyguard.

It’s possible he is just that and I am just paranoid.

I would just want to make sure everyone is locked into a claim before I go in depth.

I’d especially like to know why DV thought he was blocked by town.

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cuz there is literally no such thing as a scum blocker role and his protection target died at night

I’d really like it if he speaks up. Thanks.

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I don't quite think that's the case either. I'd just like it if DV came and responded and we made sure that there's no other PRs

And happy birthday Mala

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If there are no other PRs since we mass claimed what’s the issue?

If DV is telling the truth the only way we have an SK is if all you me DV are town

If DV is a different PR then (redacted intentionally)

If DV is telling the truth then DV protects me, I protect you, you protect DV. Doesn’t matter if strongman I don’t think as whoever would die would be healed. I just have to ask the dm. Then both scum groups have to kill in the PoE which might be instant win.

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Oh wait…if DV is telling the truth then BG never procced

Oh well we have to get SK then we can circle jerk.

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Sorry Math, I did not take into account the possibility of SK being strongman when I originally claimed so thought I had either been blocked or there was a bus driver. Strongman SK is the clear answer to the fact that MariaR died.

Awesome okay since you’re sticking with that claim you me and Enchant have to be lock town based on the setup unless you and Enchant are scum which will make themselves fairly evident.

Frogster is a bad vote because he was my N2 heal target and no second death. I doubt both teams shoot same player so Frogster joins the locktown list

[MathBlade]

vote count 3.03

with 8 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2022-10-12 01:30:00).

yeet

SirCakez [2]:

Malakittens, Frogsterking

Malakittens [1]:

SirCakez

Frogsterking [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

not voting [4]:

Bellaphant, Enchant, Gamma Emerald, DeasVail

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

flavour

Malakittens
MathBlade — Doctor. Locktown unless you have one and exactly one of Enchant/DV as scum also. I know this is impossible.
Frogsterking - N2 heal target and missing kill. Could be SK that mafia tried to shoot but I am going with no and Frog is locktown.
PookyTheMagicalBear
SirCakez
Bellaphant
DeasVail - Locktown by claim
Enchant - Locktown by claim

If only one of you lying no SK exists which means no double kill N1 which means another killing role exists which has had ample time to claim so yay four lock not mafia/likely town. Sorry to be insistent.

So SK/mafia list is in
Mala
Pooky
SirCakez
Bella

Looking at reads of who has died none really sussed Mala. So if Mala is scum she’d be with one of Pooky or Cakez.

Pooky is voting mechanical town which he’d know better

So it’s likely Pooky is scum of some kind

Given he said he’d ignore anything I said given the 3 way saves, he’s probably mafia.

So it’s a matter of who with.

[MathBlade]

sup friends lets kill some bad guys

VOTE: lanmolde

pooky is playing like a shitter but honestly I don't know what to do with him because I feel like most of my desire to SR him just comes from him being really obnoxious towards me every time we play together

this just sounds like you're mad about being caught for the wrong reasons or w/e

also like if i'm mafia and you're town, why would I be obnoxious? the whole point of being scum is to vote out townies. I'd just be playing to my win con. you kinda tmiing that I'm town here

Imho Pooky is absolutely shaking hands with Cakez and knows he’s SK here.

Pooky from start knew lam was bad being buddies.

My guess is probably with Bella but that’s the shakiest.

If I am wrong then Pooky + Cakez scum team.

Cakez should probably be the flip here.

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TLDR

So SK/mafia list is in
Mala
Pooky
SirCakez
Bella

That’s your voting pool.

Don’t vote outside it. Ever.

If we flip SK today then
Me on Enchant, Enchant on DV, DV on me.

In theory that stops all death unless doc/BG got nerfed.

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Math, I think there is a quite reasonable chance that Frogster is SK

That’s impossible.

Assume what you’re saying is true and Frog is SK

Then where is Frog’s kill?

If you say Roden where is mafia’s kill?

It’s much simpler that Frog is town and Gamma (now me) healed him.

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Pooky even as mafia has every reason to be SK-hunting rn

Pooky is focused on survival.

If he accepts the PoE he’s done

Because even if we are wrong in that pool of four and flip the only town
Then mafia and SK all know each other and it’s a matter of attrition.

Mafia lose that every time

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Math, I think there is a quite reasonable chance that Frogster is SK

That’s impossible.

Assume what you’re saying is true and Frog is SK

Then where is Frog’s kill?

If you say Roden where is mafia’s kill?

It’s much simpler that Frog is town and Gamma (now me) healed him.

Gamma could have healed Frogster-SK.

In regards to mafia’s kill, Frogster’s alignment is not that relevant.

Mafia very likely tried to kill Frogster, but that doesn’t mean Frogster is not SK

Mafia wouldn’t shoot SK though. They need the kills after losing their big PR role. Mafia would have to have believed Frog town. I just don’t see Frog SK. None of the dead players suspected Frog.

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Pooky even as mafia has every reason to be SK-hunting rn

lol what

if im mafia i wouldnt sk hunt

if mafia lims the sk here the looped protectives become unkillable and the game is over

the only way the mafia can win is if the sk shoots the doctor for them

This is exactly why I think you don’t vote Cakez.

And you keep trying because you are a great sport.

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I think you are because every dead player so far has sussed you and or Cakez.

The odds of you both being town is slim combined with you don’t vote each other.

VOTE: Cakez

E-1

I will be dead tomorrow if wrong because SK can’t stand group protection either

[MathBlade]

Sweet and if I am wrong y’all are gonna be without me anyway

Please I doc Enchant, enchant BG dv, dv bg me if I am right.

[MathBlade]

Works for me. But I think we have SK on the block.

[MathBlade]

mathblade if you claim sk i am willing to take you off the table since eliminating the sk is losing for town rn

Not SK and I did heal enchant which means we are missing mafia kill

Or SK and mafia double shot enchant.

[MathBlade]

I agree and am surprised I am alive btw

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We are at three X three
Two group scum, 1 SK.

If we hit SK we lose, mafia kills 2v2
If we hit town then mafia and SK kill. SK doesn’t hit mafia we lose.

I am thinking we have to elim Pooky here or Bella. Whoever has the greatest chance of group scum and I think that is Pooky.

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Bella or Mala I am wish washy on. Pooky like imho has to be group scum.

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Pooky + Bella = scum team I think.

Then Mala or Frog SK.

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its amazing how everyone refuses to listen to me

I am listening. I just disagree and think you’re scum.

If SK claims they do but it’s plain as day we can’t elim them so we can’t force them out.

SK’s only shot at winning is elimming mafia today then shooting the other mafia tonight.

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if we don't flush out the SK we might as well no lim

And fuck no limming

No elimming = two deaths = we lose

[MathBlade]

its amazing how everyone refuses to listen to me

I am listening. I just disagree and think you’re scum.

If SK claims they do but it’s plain as day we can’t elim them so we can’t force them out.

SK’s only shot at winning is elimming mafia today then shooting the other mafia tonight.

you disagreed with me yesterday and made me vote for sircakez rofl

I didn’t make you. You chose to. I was wrong on SirCakez. This is true.

And yes we need cross kills to win and so does SK and the only group that doesn’t is mafia which is you.

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SK’s only shot at winning is elimming mafia today then shooting the other mafia tonight.

sk has no incentive to shoot in the pool of people who are likely mafia because they are likely to get eliminated and SK wants those people to be alive so the SK does not get eliminated

the SK is going to shoot in the pool of people being protected

Incorrect

If SK shoots town and mafia shoots town then SK is endgamed

SK has to shoot mafia

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@Mod if 2 bodyguards protect the same person and that person gets shot at night, what happens?

Only one dies. I already asked.

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Hence why I was really hoping we hit the SK yesterday

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I think they already know the SK by PoE.

At worst about 33% odds randomly so I am assuming they’re just going to do their job and we elim mafia rather than SK?

[MathBlade]

we elim a mafia today

we go to night at 1 mafia 1 sk 3 town

1 mafia 1 SK and the mafia just decides to shoot the SK why?

doesnt the mafia lose if the SK shoots a town and then its 1 mafia vs 2 town

If mafia shoots the SK they have a chance to win

If mafia shoots a town they draw or lose

[MathBlade]

Going to be AFK tomorrow probably. So if I am slow posting that’s why. I am trying a potentially recharging ability called hanging out with friends IRL.

[MathBlade]

Malakittens
MathBlade
Frogsterking
PookyTheMagicalBear
Bellaphant
DeasVail

Elim pool for SK is Pooky Bella Mala and technically Frogger.

DV do you think Mala is the SK? I’d like to hear an argument and vibe with you.

Everyone who do you think is mafia and why and who is SK and why?

[MathBlade]

I think the not town is in pooky, dv and mala.. less likely dv, honestly. I'm not finding it easy to engage with sk v mafia at all, sorry.

…DV is literally mechanically confirmed town for the past two days.

So Bella is scum. Matter of if SK or group scum.

[MathBlade]

I think your premise is false. They have incentive to cross shoot. If they don’t cross shoot and 2 v 1 v 1 then they will have to eliminate the other to win.

If they eliminate the VT then they cross shoot leaving town guaranteed victor.

[MathBlade]

ok look at it from the POV of the SK.

they know the BG+Doctor are protecting each other.


they know the mafia cant kill BG or Doctor.

so if they shoot the mafia, they open tommorrow at SK vs 2 conftown

which is auto loss

hence the SK will not shoot the mafia

look at it from the point of view of the mafia:

they don't even know who the SK is.

but lets say they do know who the SK is.

if they shoot the SK, they open tommorrow as what ? conftown+VT vs Mafia? is that winning for the mafia?

It’s better than the other option mafia has.

Say we elim SK today.

Then we have me and DV who autoprotect each other.

Mafia shoots at not conf town and they die.

So we have one VT and two conf town v 2 mafia.

That becomes win or lose tomorrow which gives at best 33% odds.

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And that doesn’t account for if DV or myself go rogue and try to save a kill either.

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Mafia absolutely need the kill of BG or Doctor or they’re screwed. If they lose any mafia at all and SK doesn’t kill in me/DV then they’re fucked so mafia has to sell the no cross kill argument

But if SK doesn’t cross kill they lose

[MathBlade]

If we elim VT then SK kills BG or Doc
Mafia can’t shoot BG or Doc as it’s a waste so they either kill SK or kill VT

So then SK just loses as 2 mafia v 1 town and 1 SK

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Most of all I want to make sure we avoid a situation where there are 2 groupscum left

100% this which is why I think we go Pooky.

I don’t think he is town here. Do you think Pooky is group scum DV?

[MathBlade]

ok if you elim group scum

you will go into night with


BG+Doc, VT, SK, Mafia

SK will shoot in BG/Doc

Mafia will shoot VT

tommorrow it will be Conftown + Mafia + SK.

which is always a town loss

It’s actually not. Town just votes no elim and prays for cross kill as mafia and SK don’t win

Mafia won’t shoot town unless they want to avoid that. They have to shoot SK

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If I get left in that then I just no vote. I either get everyone lives by continuous no elim or someone is chicken.

[MathBlade]

The latter is not a loss for town

You’ve literally argued we can’t elim anyone here Pooky

You’ve argued we can’t elim the SK else mafia wins
You’ve argued we can’t elim mafia else it’s a tie town likely wins with a game of chicken or draws.
You’ve rightly pointed out we can’t elim town

We also can’t no elim Pooky

So what do you suggest we do do since we can’t no elim and there’s no one in your eyes we can elim?

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It’s actually not. Town just votes no elim and prays for cross kill as mafia and SK don’t win

Mafia won’t shoot town unless they want to avoid that. They have to shoot SK

why would the mafia and the SK decide to no lim and go to night and shoot each other to let town win?

they can just vote out the townie

Because mafia and SK both lose there

[MathBlade]

If mafia and SK both vote out the Townie

Game goes into night and both have to cross kill and no one left

[MathBlade]

It’s actually not. Town just votes no elim and prays for cross kill as mafia and SK don’t win

Mafia won’t shoot town unless they want to avoid that. They have to shoot SK

why would the mafia and the SK decide to no lim and go to night and shoot each other to let town win?

they can just vote out the townie

Because mafia and SK both lose there

they both lose if they no lim and shoot each other

theres no incentive to let the town win

They lose either way might as well let town win in that world

The more I argue with you the more I just want to vote you and say fuck it I am done

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i am giving you a solution where we can get a draw and a fair chance at winning

you want to go down a path where everyone loses

You haven’t you have vetoed voting anyone
And you’ve vetoed not voting

It makes me not care and just vote you

[MathBlade]

You’re literally now arguing elim the SK when before you said not to.

Like ???

[MathBlade]

I am watching critical role

Talking with you is only pissing me off

Yet you me and DV seem to be the major posters and I don’t want to vote you for pissing me off I want to vote you if I think we win

[MathBlade]

like just read my plan and tell me whats wrong with it

I already did

2v2 we lose

[MathBlade]

I will ask him. If he says otherwise prepare for turbo elim

[MathBlade]

I’ve asked gonna watch critical role now

It’s been a day

[MathBlade]

no in 2v2 its a draw

2 mafia vs town bodyguard + town doctor is a draw

I asked Datisi who would win in a eternally BP shot town with two people and two mafia and Datisi said mafia would win. So prepare for death unless someone has a good reason why not.

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Far as I am concerned yeah SK will probably kill me or DV but then mafia and SK have to cross kill I am okay with Pooky death since the answer was different and I am tired of Pooky bullshit so unless someone like DV explains who DV wants then I kinda want Pooky death.

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And I also asked who wins if SK is by itself it’s the SK

So 1v1v1 is crownmaker either way

So voting is loss no matter what

So no voting means mafia and SK decide by deaths

If SK wins it lives
If mafia lives SK has to be dead

So SK shoots whoever
Mafia has to shoot SK

So likely SK shoots mafia in a fit of you won’t let me win

And town lives as victor in a 1v1v1 world

I will tell SK and mafia it’s your win to lose and I won’t force one to win or lose

[MathBlade]

Totally agree math

Wanna kill Pooky?

Pooky needs death

VOTE: Pooky

[MathBlade]

Or I just protect DV and DV protects me and you shoot town and the 1 v1 v1 where mafia shoots SK and SK is kingmaker

Elimming you is win or draw or potential at loss.

Not elimming you is lose or draw.

I mean if you want to take out town and kingmaker SK I can’t stop you but I think mafia kingmaker > town kingmaker as we have a chance to win versus you selling town autoloss

That’s just ridiculoud

[MathBlade]

Or maybe I am grandstanding and I will hero.

You don’t know.

I trust DV to know what my plan is as the first game I ever played with him, eons ago he ran a similar gambit.

Ain’t that right We all know who works for the Red Cross and who has the muscles

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I think he knows what I am saying and I can risk it and he knows the medic has one true source and the bodyguard one true destination

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you can work with me and get a 50:50 shot at winning or elim me and get 0% chance of winning

your choice

So 0% or 0%

I don’t see either way here

You told me you’re going to screw me over if I do vote you
Yet you’re going to screw me over if I do.

So no point in listening to you.

[MathBlade]

If I dont*

So what I hear is you complaining you’re not getting what you want and town is screwed either way

If you’re going to screw town over then I screw you over

See how empty your threat is?

You don’t scare me Pooky.

I already plotted out your team has to kill the SK.

Let’s play chicken

[MathBlade]

well we did try but someone wouldnt listen to me about who the sk was rofl

And I still think you’re wrong. I listened I disagreed.

[MathBlade]

Damn it.
I was hoping DV would hero right

Was trying to tell him to hero because the first game together we gambited.

I knew I couldn’t. Damn.

Well played to everyone. Just wanna give a last chance to convince me to vote even though I probably won’t but maybe there is a case out there

[MathBlade]

But so are you Mala </3

You’re breaking my heart here

[MathBlade]

But I didn’t elim you that game

I advocated for you *sads*

[MathBlade]

Anyone got any serious cases why they should win or anything? If not I plan on voting no elim in 48 hours.

I figure this gives Mala who is busy with EMT stuff a fair shake
And Frogger a fair shake.

I mean every fiber in my being says to vote no elim and hammer
Mafia has to shoot SK to have a chance to win

So SK kingmaker if I no elim.

So I guess it’s up to SK who wins if we no elim.

But I kinda figure we could talk stuff out.

[MathBlade]

It depends.

Ngl I kinda was pissed but I guess I’m over it

I feel like all three teams in of itself deserves to win

The closest we can get to that is a draw between mafia and SK.

We can also go to night
Mafia attempts to win and therefore shoots SK.
SK then determines mafia win and town win.

Or Mafia is chicken
SK is chicken
And we just no elim no shoot for three days.

[MathBlade]

If we all agree draw we can draw there’s usually some rule for it.

[MathBlade]

Those are of course options and the ones you would like us to consider. However, there is a cleaner option available. If Mala and I have some trust and there is no bad blood between us, mafia and SK can draw together by voting no-lim and overkilling Math tonight.

Lol that results in an SK win. Nice try. I applaud you.

I asked the mod about win cons.

[MathBlade]

Those are of course options and the ones you would like us to consider. However, there is a cleaner option available. If Mala and I have some trust and there is no bad blood between us, mafia and SK can draw together by voting no-lim and overkilling Math tonight.

Lol that results in an SK win. Nice try. I applaud you.

I asked the mod about win cons.

I thought 1 maf + 1 SK is a draw?

Not to my understanding. Usually SKs win those but can’t hurt.

[MathBlade]

If we all agree draw we can draw there’s usually some rule for it.

I'd agree to draw.

I also agree to a draw.

[MathBlade]

Mala is cute I agree.

But I don’t care to hammer anyone and if Mala hammers me she loses.

So we can just no elim.

Then you all play chicken.

It’s the best chance Mala has at victory.

Then you pick the victor.

VOTE: No elim

[MathBlade]

Roden is extremely good town.

He almost caught me in a scum game once.

[MathBlade]

Good luck all.

[MathBlade]

Gg I had fun too

I am glad that worked.

[MathBlade]

Sorry for not believing you Pooky.

I just couldn’t get over the protection.

[MathBlade]

GG and thanks for modding.

Congrats to Math for not compromising on the votes, I thought that put town in a loss at first but it worked out in the end.

I generally almost always as any alignment keep my promise and I detailed I wouldn’t vote.

I am surprised I didn’t die.

I was hoping DV would play hero though. In our first game it was a newbie game he swapped roles with the other PR claim. Almost got me and bj.

[MathBlade]

I'm legit surprised town won this. GJ Math, you deserve it <3

Thank you.

It’s nice to have a town game that doesn’t resemble a dumpster fire.