Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Coral]

Some scattered notes from a day 1 reread, on absinthe and how people interacted with her:

1) Starting at 107, an interesting interaction with Chara. Chara states a townlean, absinthe asks if it knows who she is, there's some back and forth about history, with absinthe gently nudging and saying that she hasn't done anything town yet. Chara's 118, revising the townlean to a reaction test. My bias is likely clouding my vision here but it's hard for me not to read this as a slightly awkward scum partner interaction. absinthe's delayed response in 132 is excellently made though if it is, and pretty successful at defusing that feeling. 144 is good as well. Hard to judge, overall, but worth remembering and looking over.

2) skitter was the first to call out absinthe as scummy. Not that meaningful for her alignment, but the continued prodding in 176 is good. I don't see much of a reaction elsewhere surrounding it, at least not immediately. Later, unprompted, absinthe townreading skitter for the interaction (341) and then skitter completely ignoring that seems distinctly unaligned to me.

3) Faker. Starts with 316, asking for the absinthe/Faker/catboi grouping. Follows up with a scumread in 369 for the question being ignored. Stronger in 379. In 412 she calls her scum and says that she would be scared of the grouping and would swap out. Commits to that grouping over one with Tempest in 441. 445 absinthe responds for the first time, and resists the placement. I'm not going to link all the posts because there's a lot, but Faker gradually builds up the pressure, absinthe continues to resist, then eventually gives in (and later says she didn't feel any pressure). I just can't see any world where scum Faker pulls this out, draws a lot of eyes onto absinthe, and then swaps her back out without really making the mini game that much more winnable for herself? It just puts two minigames at a disadvantage while also wasting a lot of time and pressure that could be setting up better groupings.

4) Chara calls out absinthe as a member of its predicted scumteam in 413. Also includes catboi. catboi replies with "interesting" in 415. In a vacuum I want to call this more likely to be Chara unaligned with those two, but relatively minor and easily fakeable.

5) Page 21 and the following few I think are really worth a reread for the rest of you once absinthe flips, if Gate goes early. It's where absinthe suspicion seems to generally build, and where absinthe continues to push back on Faker's assignment. I can feel quite a bit of tension here, that loosens significantly as things move later, but here things feel sharper. Faker has absinthe as top scum in 502. Tempest mentions suspicion in 521. Faker and absinthe have some back and forth on page 23. catboi, around the same time, has trouble finding anyone scummy in 549 and feels lost in 564. Then starts keying in onto absinthe, with 567, 578, 595, 604. Where does this sudden burst of focus come from, from 3 different simultaneous angles? It feels a bit sudden to me for it to be coming naturally from town who had just said they won't have strong feelings and would probably just go to keep soon. I believe it's motivated by seeing how much of a focus absinthe has become and needing to start building more threads there.

6) 953 from absinthe towards skitter and the ensuing interactions feels unaligned to me. 966 as well.

7) Oh wow, the first thing that feels potentially meaningful as an interaction between demona-absinthe! I was starting to believe we had none and was going to be concerned. 1021, response in 1028, let's see. Hmm. The initial post seems good. The response, though, worries me. It feels flat, like there's no concern from absinthe of a threat from the suspicion of demona, no need to try to appear sorting in response. I wish I could call this unaligned, but I can't. It's plausibly partnered.

8) If absinthe and catboi are scum, I'm a bit less impressed by demona's call for chara and tempest to go to the opposite of their originally assigned locations. While I think it's still a towny thing to suggest, in that world it likely wouldn't affect scum that significantly. It's already set to be 0-1-2 (or 1-0-2), so it doesn't actually make it any less likely to be 1-1-1.

[Coral]

Quick conclusions from that:

Chara

- Some complicated interactions. Deeply unsure. Purely off this, my gut says town actually, but I know I shouldn't trust gut here.

Isis

- Nothing stood out, which worries me a little.

demona

- Not much either. Difference in how absinthe responded here vs responded to Chara feels meaningful.

catboi

- Approach makes sense as partnered.

skitter

- Interactions are towny. I think she just got the read correct here, and I don't think she needs to land on the side of absinthe being scum today given her continual suspicion of me day 1.

Faker

- Hard townread. Approach seems ridiculous and damaging to the team if partnered. Would demand to know what exactly Faker is trying to accomplish here from anyone who thinks they could be partnered.

[Coral]

If I decide to play with a little less ego and sheep Coral more I'd rather keep believing I can read Chara rather that squeeze a townread of you I can't seem to articulate well.

I wouldn't recommend sheeping me on Wall at this point

A lot of the absinthe interactions made me doubt on Chara and I wouldn't be confident voting there anymore.

[Coral]

@math like from my pov i don't see why scum-you cant vote yourself, so it doesnt really convince me of everything

And i'm confused why you arent trying to solve/talk to catboi
Like even if you think i'm scum i'm confused ehy you wouldnt try to verify that by making sure you do, indeed, townread the other person

@catboi does math change how you're approaching this minigame at all?

I mean, hm, I don't want to act like I'm shutting him out because that would be rude but...so far his behavior feels like he's trying to sell people on voting him more than assessing our alignments. I also think that if I work from an assumption of absinthe being scum, it points more strongly toward you being town and faker being scum.

Can you go into this a little more? I think it points to both of them being town, but more strongly to Faker being town. What do you think Faker was doing with the approach to absinthe?

[Coral]

I know you said "I don't actually have to explain this" but I think it's important to support that claim because it seems unbelievable to me.

[Coral]

You're right. You don't owe anyone anything. I hope you're enjoying yourself.

[Coral]

I know you said "I don't actually have to explain this" but I think it's important to support that claim because it seems unbelievable to me.

no actually i don't owe you jack shit lmfao

i am still curious about the apparent strength of your reads on Coral/absinthe, i don't see what's so bad about absinthe's reads that you think she isn't informed, if that's what you were saying.

I interpreted it this way at first as well, but 2013 makes it sound like he's talking about me. I think his current stated perspective is that I am town who isn't worth talking to.

[Coral]

I am somewhat heavily doubting that Chara in a team with catboi/absinthe would encourage that solve, knowing that Wall will likely flip last.

[Coral]

I think Herta is more likely than Isis, with the extremely underwhelming replace in being a factor in that.

[Coral]

I would expect anyone in the Keep to have a different perspective on how they would like to solve the Keep from someone outside the Keep, since they have an extra piece of information.

[Coral]

also, happy holidays!

[Coral]

My opinion is just my opinion. If skitter and catboi both don't think you're town, then I think the world where they're both town and correct is worth considering enough that skitter could be voted.

I really can't see Faker scum here but I am not an expert Faker reader by any means.

[Coral]

And either way, I don't really think either of you should be the one to vote.

[Coral]

Maybe I'm tunneled but that being the only thing that absinthe has chosen to comment on in a game-advancing way in the last 500 posts seems more likely to be an attempt to create WIFOM than an actual attempt to push forward scum agenda.

Especially with her previous trajectory of her read on catboi heading in a positive direction.

[Coral]

2115 is eh, Coral. absinthe picking that to respond to is really not AI, there are a million reasons she could have decided to voice her agreement there, and it's right on this page.

but you're in a position where she's confscum to you, so... ahaha.

have you talked about where you are on me and Isis? and Herta.

maybe I wasn't clear enough, but I wasn't saying it was AI for absinthe. I was saying that my initial reaction on seeing it was to briefly doubt if catboi was scum, because confirmed scum (from my perspective) was acting comfortable with him being the voter. After thinking about it more I decided it was probably more likely to be intentionally provoking that reaction. Me saying I was tunneled was referring to being tunneled on catboi scum, not on absinthe scum.

It may not be that useful of a consideration to anyone who doesn't have the same perspective as I have of her alignment being confirmed and seeing everything from the lens of "what is her scum goal with this post?".

If I were forced to vote Wall at this exact moment I would probably vote Herta but I would rather not have to make a choice there yet.

[Coral]

In a vacuum I would say that skitter's approach feels more to me like town who is uninformed and is working off the one piece of information she has (Keep is won by voting town -> I am town -> I should be voted) without much concern for whether it will get her townread or not.

In this specific gamestate, I think it would be fairly likely to end up working and getting her voted if she's scum, so I don't think it's very clearing.

It does seem risky to swap into this Keep and just hope that catboi and faker won't be able to find each other eventually, but maybe on seeing how their argument was playing out, she decided to take advantage by just waiting for one of them to vote her.

That concern is why I prefer Math to be voted. I still lean skitter town, but I think both the swap and her play line up close enough to what could be a winning strategy as scum that I have a bit of worry.

[Coral]

I would think there would be a change in strategy once Math comes in, though. I don't think her approach to him is at all likely to make him vote her and I think she would know that.

[Coral]

Especially the initial reaction of just being visibly frustrated with him seems counterproductive, since I think the replacement in a town!catboi, town!math world would allow catboi to potentially reset and reassess the situation.

[Coral]

I would think there would be a change in strategy once Math comes in, though. I don't think her approach to him is at all likely to make him vote her and I think she would know that.

This. I asked her about this and the answer was pretty unsatisfactory. Then she tries to push me as scummy for doing the things I said I would do. If she thought that scummy the time to bring it up was then.

I feel like Skitter is trying to perform town vs being town.

You're saying "this" to a point about why I think she's town and using it to say she's scum.

I think as scum she would be capable of avoiding antagonizing you and would recognize it as necessary.

[Coral]

I think we see the same reasoning and reach a different conclusion.

I think town!Skitter would want me to vote her. I think her approach isn’t going to make me vote her. I think that’s because she’s not town skitter so she’s not taking a town approach

As scum, her primary and arguably only goal would be to get voted. She would be informed of your alignment, and know that making you not want to vote her is directly counter to her primary goal and gains her very little.

As town, her goals are both to find scum, and to convince the other town in the Keep to vote her. If she is uninformed of your alignment, then her main approach to you will be with the goal of sorting you, not appeasing you. If she thinks you're more likely to be scum, then you aren't voting for her anyway, so you voting her isn't even a concern, and her goal shifts instead to demonstrating to catboi (and others) why you're scum.

Her approach towards you is 100% more of a town approach than a scum approach because it is uninformed of your alignment, it fits with a town mindset of wanting to sort you rather than appease you, and it hurts what her goals would be as scum.

[Coral]

You say you're more of a logic-based person. Can you please explain the logic of how you're reaching a different conclusion here?

[Coral]

No one responding to me asking about Chara is in effect denying me the ability to sort it. I can’t bounce off the sounding board to see if my reads are reasonable or not.

It so far hasn't seemed like you have much intention of bouncing things off a sounding board and actually having any serious reassessment of if your reads are reasonable or not. You've only ever doubled down and taken any pushback as a sign that scum is trying to discredit your correct reads. That makes me disinclined to be interested in putting in the effort to attempt to do so only to result in both of us frustrated with the other and nothing actually changing.

If you would like my opinion, I don't think that the "hedging" was scummy. I'm hedging on the Wall heavily, and I'm town. I'm even hedging on the Keep by trying to sort between which of you and skitter I have fewer doubts on, despite being fairly confident that catboi is the scum. I just don't see it as a scummy thing to do here. I see it as trying to sort and give the full nuance of its opinions. I don't townread it for the post, because it could be scum hedging, but I don't see any reason to assume it couldn't come from town.

[Coral]

You say you're more of a logic-based person. Can you please explain the logic of how you're reaching a different conclusion here?

Premise 1: Town players have a town mindset.
Premise 2: We agree Skitter is not following a town based mindset. (2143) As Skitter is not attempting to get me to vote her she’s not doing what town Skitter would be doing.
Conclusion: Skitter is not town.

How I see your premises:
Premise 1: Scum players try to mimic a town mindset.
Premise 2: Skitter is being antagonistic which is the opposite of a cooperative mindset.
Conclusion: Skitter isn’t trying to look town therefore she is town.

We disagree on your premise 2. My premise is that skitter is following a town mindset. Break that down further -- what would skitter's mindset be as scum and as town, and why is her current mindset more likely to be scum?

Your assessment of my premises are also incorrect. I think that her trying to cooperate with you as scum would not be due to mimicking a town mindset, it would be to appease you and get you to vote her, because it is incredibly predictable that if she did not, you would scumread her for it. I don't believe that is actually what she would do as town, though.

[Coral]

Not necessarily in this game. Town has different goals here. She as town has it confirmed that exactly one of you and catboi is scum. Her goal here is to sort between which one of you it is. If she thinks you're more likely to be scum (she does), then why would she be trying to townblock with you? She would only be trying to townblock with you if she were scum and were informed of your alignment.

[Coral]

Therefore I am not assuming my Skitter scumread is correct. I am pointing out things I find scummy but I don’t have her scumlocked.

I think town her would either A) Be honest she doesn’t have any hard reads
Or B) Vote Catboi

I think she’d be constantly trying to assess my alignment rather than this hyper focused defense of my posts where she is literally ignoring context.

I don't really agree with your assessment of her posts in response to you. I think she comes off as frustrated, yes, but the way you express things can be frustrating. I don't think it comes across like she isn't trying to sort you.

[Coral]

Coral what do you think abt the pressure faker put on absinthe to go yo keep?

They're both saying the pressure was strong, but reading through i don't really get that vibe tbh?

I thought the pressure was strong reading it live, and I also thought it was when I reread the game knowing absinthe was scum.

as an aside, absinthe's take on it is a little inconsistent:

Basically I resent being herded, but I feel good about the direction and I'm done talking about my reads for now.

Like idk why you keep acting like faker was trying to herd you to keep, that wasnf happening

I think you're wrong about that. I don't see it as a necessarily bad thing for town to do, but I definitely felt herded yesterday. The pressure decrease after I agreed was palpable. To me anyway.

edit i don't think ffery chooses keep if she's scum with catboi @ prism how do you think that makes sense

I put a ton of pressure to bring her here, and I don't think that progression on her choice makes sense except as reactionary to my prodding.

Eh.

Keep was my first choice since I decided to /in. I thought my reads would be more solid in a Keep that included Tammy and that was my main gripe with your "pressure". The only pressure that matters in mafia is the pressure I put on myself.

which to me doesn't feel like it was a coordinated scum plan between the two where they're trying to set a certain narrative.


The main parts that I see as pressure from Faker are here, along with the resistance from absinthe:

Spoiler:

I'm getting breakfast first but absinthe, any thoughts on going into a game with me/cat? I think it'd be fun. Also surprised that you don't want to quarantine me, so thank you!

I'd be down to go me/Tammy/cat in Keep, less sure about Gate/Wall but it might work.

absinthe, any thoughts on going into a game with me/cat? I think it'd be fun. Also surprised that you don't want to quarantine me, so thank you!

Fact that she skipped over it feels like a big +scum flag. She really puts a premium on reading me correctly after viewing my scumgames and isn't likely to miss a nested question.

The more I think about this the more strongly I feel about ffery missing that question being +scum, as absurd as it is.

fferyllt is more because I think she's scum, likely to be scared of us both individually and our dynamic together a la 2181, and likely to flee if so. Forcing scum to make certain swaps or risk losing the game is a lot of what Day 1 is all about.

skitter/demona/Tammatha in Gate
cat/Faker/fferyllt in Keep
Chara/Isis/Coral in Wall

Looks decent but I would need to actually go back and read more of the substance I've been putting off. Swapping fferyllt/Tammatha might work but I think we get a ton of mileage out of having Tammatha at the Gate, very good clear to have and the outsiders can still help any clear read her if she's not picked.

I'm crazy busy and I'm going to have to comb through the last 5 or so pages later today.

Saw this stuff before I gave up on getting caught up, though.

Oh that was in my quote queue to ask what that post means

It's a bookmark. I want to revisit something in Tammy's post later.

Why later

There's players where delayed reveal investigations are all kinds of spicy to me and none of them rhyme with Cammy

It's not a delayed reveal so much as I don't want to potentially walk through a line of questioning.

absinthe, any thoughts on going into a game with me/cat? I think it'd be fun. Also surprised that you don't want to quarantine me, so thank you!

Besides chills and nightmares?

Fact that she skipped over it feels like a big +scum flag. She really puts a premium on reading me correctly after viewing my scumgames and isn't likely to miss a nested question.

I did miss it! I have a lot of thoughts about you, but I'm not sure my experience with your play is current enough. I want to see how you're approaching the game now that you've presumably caught up on sleep. The stuff that makes me snap townread you a la the warehouse 13 game wasn't present last night. Your (and catboi's) joviality (and particularly catboi's opaqueness) in the first few hours of the game were/are a slow-burning concern. I'm thinking about the two of you together because I feel like I should be able read you in part through your interactions.

Writing that, I think I've talked myself into a tentative townlean on catboi.

That newbie game I replaced into after you replaced out had a huge impact on my scum-you model. I'm not getting that kind of vibe at all here so far, but I also wasn't seeing what I feel are town markers, either.

My current guess for the scumteam is ffery coral tammy

Someday you're going to figure out how to read me.

I'd say me/Tempest/cat in a game would be nice, maybe me/cat/ffery as a backup.

I don't really think in terms of placing people trying to go 3/3 in one game, but the approaches aren't mutually exclusive and even getting 2/3 constrains the scum's choices greatly.

At the moment, I'd rather be in a group that means getting Tammy right, though that's probably naive. I haven't seen/played with scum-Tammy in ages.

ATM, I have misgivings about going to the Keep.

I guess T->S I'd go something like

skitter, cat, demona, Isis, Chara, Coral, Tempest, absinthe

Some of this ordering is honestly random and I can see specific flips changing things greatly but I'll throw the dart for now and just YOLO look at people individually

Look I didn't mean to kill game discussion by waxing poetic.

I mostly agree on fferllyt Tempest but my reasoning is pretty much a dart throw atm, I also think she'd probably try and pressure me more overall.

Also no clue where the Isis thing comes from. Her experience with you is more limited IIRC and she's more likely to just townread you for NAI reasons as a result.

From catboi's pov it's not relevant whether I'd townread his scumgames right?

Yes, but see 382. We want to put people in that are likely to get an accurate read regardless of the person's alignment, not "Don't worry this strategy works BECAUSE I'm town"

This begs the question -- do you think you can read me accurately?

Yes, and you believe I can read you much more than I do as a bonus. I don't see what you're getting at.

absinthe, any thoughts on going into a game with me/cat? I think it'd be fun. Also surprised that you don't want to quarantine me, so thank you!

Fact that she skipped over it feels like a big +scum flag. She really puts a premium on reading me correctly after viewing my scumgames and isn't likely to miss a nested question.

That's about ffery, not Tammy

fferyllt is more because I think she's scum, likely to be scared of us both individually and our dynamic together a la 2181, and likely to flee if so. Forcing scum to make certain swaps or risk losing the game is a lot of what Day 1 is all about.

Yes, I saw all that. I dunno if I'd flee or if I'd want to test your confident lack of confidence in your towngame. Quite possibly the latter!

If you responded to my quotewall, I haven't gotten to it yet.

Yes, and you believe I can read you much more than I do as a bonus. I don't see what you're getting at.

Just curiosity that you'd put me in your alternate group of three. It implies a confidence in reading me that is maybe justified. your self-deprecation has grown on me though.

Can you elaborate more on why it's taken you this long to really engage with my content?

I'm going to nap for a bit, I'm not the center of the world and you're doing a lot in general atm, but know that 560 is the crux of my skepticism. Maybe I'm not high priority sorting to you early as town, but I really think that I would be.

You're also

still

more concerned about me reading you correctly than the reverse, which might be fair given the current situation but it's early.

Can you elaborate more on why it's taken you this long to really engage with my content?

Lack of brain cells last night.

Lack of time this morning.

I'm still ~7 pages behind. Shouldn't take long to catch up, though I'll probably have to reread Demona and Isis a few times.

I'm going to nap for a bit, I'm not the center of the world and you're doing a lot in general atm, but know that 560 is the crux of my skepticism. Maybe I'm not high priority sorting to you early as town, but I really think that I would be.

You're also

still

more concerned about me reading you correctly than the reverse, which might be fair given the current situation but it's early.

It's not just concern about you reading me correctly. The game that prompted my hiatus was the first time I'd been miselimmed in a very, very long time. outside of a newbie game replace in to a cursed slot.

My instinct says that demona would be a good fit stylistically there but I don't know how the three of you would actually read each other, the commonality to me is more whimsy/fun/ADHD energy and not knowing how to read any of the three of you personally.

That said I actually would say I trust skitter's judgment on being able to read demona and therefore that they should go together, provided that there isn't a high risk of skitter just being able to pocket her in turn which I'm assuming atm is not the case

Can you unpack this?

skitter/demona/Tammatha in Gate
cat/Faker/fferyllt in Keep
Chara/Isis/Coral in Wall

Looks decent but I would need to actually go back and read more of the substance I've been putting off. Swapping fferyllt/Tammatha might work but I think we get a ton of mileage out of having Tammatha at the Gate, very good clear to have and the outsiders can still help any clear read her if she's not picked.

I'm feeling pretty good about going into day 2 with Tammy from what I've seen so far.

@absinthe Can you lay out what minigame that would be and who it would be with?

I guess cat/Coral/me wouldn't be bad but it's not ideal and I'd greatly prefer you or Tempest. I'm not sure what shuffling to accommodate would look like, and I'm not entirely sure why you'd be averse to joining me/cat in the Keep given that it's more of a townhunting game than a scumhunting one.

I'm hoping for me/cat/Tempest or me/cat/absinthe but as it stands I'd probably join as third in any hypothetical Tempest/absinthe pairing in either Keep or Gate. I don't trust absinthe and would like to be a friendly thorn in her side if I am right.

@absinthe Can you lay out what minigame that would be and who it would be with?

I guess cat/Coral/me wouldn't be bad but it's not ideal and I'd greatly prefer you or Tempest. I'm not sure what shuffling to accommodate would look like, and I'm not entirely sure why you'd be averse to joining me/cat in the Keep given that it's more of a townhunting game than a scumhunting one.

I've come around to...not caring too much which minigame.

Shocker.

A Demona/Tammy/me Keep might mean I'd be the decider there.

absinthe can you lay out clearly why you don't think coming to the Keep with us is a good idea?

You get a chance to read two players whose games you always spectate to try and guess their alignment anyway. You've expressed some confidence in my ability to read you previously, and you've seen me have an OK track record on cat*. I'm also effectively neutralized as scum in the Keep, because if people are really worried I can just be made the designated voter.

*Nailing cat in a game I'm spectating and nailing him in a game with him are different things though, I think I can get him at the end of the day but it's not so simple when he actually preps

So want to get a headstart? I don't know if you've outed reads yet, but if there's anything you want me to look at in particular LMK

want to make sure people are okay with the arrangement first and no one storms in screaming I OBJECT!!! but other than that fine

hmm what do you make

of chara and faker both

seemingly not wanting me in the keep

without really stating why

I have explained this repeatedly, and framing it as "not wanting you in the keep" is completely missing the point. The answer is about where should

everyone

go, not just you.

442 explicitly says swapping you/skitter/a third into the Keep is fine. I want me/cat to go there because it provides a very good safety buffer and prevents us from getting into an extremely grueling 1v1.

428 talks about preserving you/skitter as a pairing. This includes in the Keep.

I'm not going in the Keep

with

you. You struggle to read me, and I struggle to read your style. It makes essentially no sense from the perspective of trying to win.

385 elaborates on my approach to you in general.

This is the first post from Faker that I unequivocally like. No caveats. No footnotes.

whew!

VOTE: wafer wall

welp

I guess T->S I'd go something like

skitter, cat, demona, Isis, Chara, Coral, Tempest, absinthe

Some of this ordering is honestly random and I can see specific flips changing things greatly but I'll throw the dart for now and just YOLO look at people individually

I'm going to take somewhat cold comfort that your WH13 townread of me/nacho was apparently completely random!

Maybe it's a factor of not reading in the moment, but half the time it's a puzzle trying to figure who/what you're responding to in your posts.

@absinthe I really don't see why. 471 is the easiest post of the bunch to fake. What's town is putting myself into the Keep anyway,

when I explicitly started the game off by stating I probably wouldn't want to go there

even if I was willing to defer.

You've seen me make incorporate longer emotional narrative arcs a la law school before but I think my play this game is pretty straightforward so far. I also like to do them as a slow burn, not just drop them randomly 24 hours into the game. Maybe there's a nightswap that would salvage this game for me but shrug. Adapting to the meta shift is a problem for future Prism.

I could probably go back and forth on this all day but I'm going to leave it for now. I would still like a response to 607, though.

I have to get to it before I can respond to it.

I am sooooo close to caught up.

absinthe can you lay out clearly why you don't think coming to the Keep with us is a good idea?

You get a chance to read two players whose games you always spectate to try and guess their alignment anyway. You've expressed some confidence in my ability to read you previously, and you've seen me have an OK track record on cat*. I'm also effectively neutralized as scum in the Keep, because if people are really worried I can just be made the designated voter.

*Nailing cat in a game I'm spectating and nailing him in a game with him are different things though, I think I can get him at the end of the day but it's not so simple when he actually preps

I'm looking at the keep from the perspective of winding up the decider The sentiment around my alignment will probably improve (gawd I hope so), but I'd never be the obvtown in this Keep.

I'm still not over feeling like your entrance and early play in this game was off the map for my Prism model. And the one time I remember playing against scum-catboi was actually in the first Fortress game. I wound up in the Gate with him and was having fits figuring out the scum between him and something smart. There were off notes, but something smart wasn't looking so town either. Not sure I would have gotten it right, but it didn't matter because town lost the Keep and Wall before we got there.

Fuck it.

May as well face my demons.

I'll give it 12 hours for cold feet to set in and then vote keep.

Faker starts of by posing the grouping, absinthe doesn't respond, and instead of letting that be or only prodding about it once, Faker repeatedly hammers the point about how that is +scum for absinthe. absinthe finally responds with 445 which is a bit weak and squirmy, and tries to ask for a pairing with Tempest. Faker pushes the idea of absinthe scum to others. 558 from absinthe appeases. Faker continues the pressure, pushing absinthe as scum and denying the peace offerings.

583 absinthe again tries to push for a grouping with Tempest. Faker cuts off that angle and wants to go with absinthe wherever she ends up in 589. absinthe tries a third time in 594 to set up a different grouping, this time with demona. She ignores the proposed faker/tempest/absinthe grouping, despite her main stated goal being to go with tempest.

Faker again cuts off the angle and pushes her back towards the Keep grouping. Meanwhile absinthe gives a really awkward townread to a Faker post that, as Faker explains, shouldn't even be worth townreading. absinthe finally gives in and accepts the grouping.


All of this feels unpaired to me. Faker commenting on it live grabbed my attention, and while I hadn't been townreading absinthe, Faker's points and absinthe's responses significantly increased my scumread there. It just seems so counterproductive to me for Faker to spend all this energy drawing attention to the scumminess of her partner, swap them out into a 1v1 that they are now on the back foot in, and then bring in skitter who will be loathe to vote Faker, alongside catboi who is much more likely to just vote skitter. Faker as scum has plans and goals and I think there are so many other things that she could have done that would have been significantly more effective at improving the scumteam's chances of winning. I think this approach forces them into a narrow range of swaps and also makes both minigames harder to win and provides little to no benefit given that the only one who seems to be convinced that it makes Faker town is me, who can't even vote on the minigame

[Coral]

Uncharacteristic abrasiveness would be towny yes. The only slot that has seemed uncharacteristically abrasive is like, catboi, but that was to you and you're not in keep.

I don't think that catboi's uncharacteristic abrasiveness is at all towny (closer to the opposite) but he has effectively made me not want to get into that further, so. It worked, I suppose

I prefer to focus on reasons for why I think skitter and Math are town anyway, since it's a townhunting minigame.

[Coral]

I think we should flip something soon as well. Fine with Gate and Keep in any order.

[Coral]

Hi!

[Coral]

math isn't solving and i think he's scum at this point

Do you think catboi is solving? Or, what's the difference between the two for you?

[Coral]

There's always more I could say if delayed forever (for example, seeing how Aisa engages with the game), but I think a flip is more valuable given the time remaining. I'll probably keep talking as long as I'm alive but there's nothing I need to say before the flip, so go ahead whenever you're ready.

[Coral]

There's always more I could say if delayed forever (for example, seeing how Aisa engages with the game), but I think a flip is more valuable given the time remaining. I'll probably keep talking as long as I'm alive but there's nothing I need to say before the flip, so go ahead whenever you're ready.

What’s your solve for the two games you’re not in?

Kind of a last reads.

You too absinthe?

Don’t think I didn’t notice you not cross voting.

I still think catboi is scum and should be the voter. If he's town, he can solve between the remaining two, I'm conflicted. I think my reasons for Math being town are more solid but that's my own opinion.

On Wall I have a really hard time with it. I had a gut scumread on Chara for how it played day 1, but I don't think it's scum with catboi. I didn't really try hard to sort demona and hoped she would be made IC, but leaned town without much rigor. Herta made the slot extremely scummy for me and that is hard to ignore. Isis I leaned town on day 1 but I think she's been the only one day 2 to really feel like she's pushing different angles to potentially try to prevent what seems to me like it could be heading towards a town victory. I probably would have Aisa > Isis > Chara as my solve if catboi is scum, but if catboi is scum, then maybe it doesn't matter.

I guess that's my main worry. This all feels too easy. Everyone was pretty on board with absinthe being scum, and I don't really know how scum expect to win here? I guess hope that people come to that same fear and start to doubt? absinthe being basically in antispew for almost all of day 2 has me thinking that scum could be set up well off her flip. But with the other two games not really having a strong consensus and still being fairly up in the air, even from my perspective, maybe they're just hoping they can fight hard to win both of those.

[Coral]

Math, I think scum were probably trying to maximize their chances of winning the Gate. Me and absinthe were about equally active day 1, there was some suspicion on me (maybe more on absinthe though), and I had said that I was bad at 1v1s (which is true, I just haven't ever needed to 1v1 here). Tempest also is more familiar with absinthe and may second guess that she would swap herself in as scum here. Based on day 1 it seems reasonable to expect a good chance at a win in Gate for scum absinthe.

If there were 2 scum in Keep and 0 in Gate, so skitter being town, that would mean they had very few swaps they could make. With Faker very likely to push absinthe as scum, absinthe escaping the Keep may have been the most pressing concern. Someone has to go to Gate, and someone has to get pulled into Keep. skitter seems like a reasonable choice there.

If skitter is scum, then I guess the hope would be that Faker and catboi would tunnel on each other and would prefer to vote skitter? It does seem like a risky move to make, and they would have a lot more possible swaps available to them, so it would surprise me.

If Faker is scum, again I don't understand the approach to day 1 at all, but given the position heading into night, the swap at least makes some sense for setting the narrative that Faker and absinthe are unaligned.

[Coral]

Most of your response was under the assumption of Isis scum, but I think what I've said applies regardless. I don't think Isis is really any more or less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here. I think regardless of the scumteam, they made what they thought was the best choice given the information they had.

[Coral]

On the other hand I think Math's self-awareness of his reads being bad and hesitance to push them is more scummy than not. I don't feel like the confident energy that he had on replace in has continued as much as I would expect.

[Coral]

In either a town or scum Math world, catboi following through and voting skitter (when skitter is here and active and able to self-hammer) is probably a loss. He's not doing much to prevent that from happening but I guess there isn't much he can do at this point.

If catboi is scum, the vote would be placed in the hopes that Math recognizes this and panics and votes catboi, thinking that catboi is town for being the one to vote.

[Coral]

The reasoning behind the first paragraph being that if Math is town and he sees someone vote someone else, the logical conclusion is that town just voted scum, because scum wouldn't vote unless gambiting. Scum catboi here probably is forced to gambit, though.

[Coral]

Whether Keep or Gate is resolving first, my opinion is that it makes sense for Keep to have a hard deadline of resolving before skitter's v/la begins tomorrow, especially if she is the one who is being voted. I think having one member of the minigame absent from thread for a long period of time can create some tricky potential scenarios that are probably best avoided.

And waiting until after seems like too long, because if the game isn't over after Keep and Gate, there's a lot to reassess and dig through for the remaining town in the Wall + Tempest

[Coral]

Isis is really any more or less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

you take it back


Isis is less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

I will not!

I hope I don't count for the most recent statement since I am not in control of when my game resolves

[Coral]

If catboi isn't scum then my concern about Chara would probably rise again. skitter/absinthe/Chara was my day 1 scumteam guess at one point, at least.

[Coral]

It's hard for me to force my brain to assess that preflip though because it's a bit of stretch even to ask it to see catboi town. The playstyle shifts from relaxed passive observer, to openly having no scumreads, to very aggressively having one scumread and wanting to end the minigame soon, to cooperatively taking his time and dragging things out, just don't feel like a natural town approach to me at all.

[Coral]

Same goes for being completely uninterested in playing the minigame in the way that should be optimal from his town perspective. Accepting being the voter (while originally saying he wanted to vote in a day or so, and then not doing so for a week) seems more likely to come from scum being performative.

The complete lack of support for his Faker scumread (and aggressive unwillingness to support it) also makes it seem like that was a read that came out of necessity of feeling he needed to push back with equal aggression than it did out of a natural read.

All of this might not matter much if he does actually follow through on voting soon, but I want it said in case Gate resolves first and then he ends up delaying further.

[Coral]

just completely fucking insufferable

Genuinely, I'm sorry if anything I said was hurtful or insensitive. I hate to upset anyone and that isn't my intent. I'm just trying to solve the game. I hope that I was wrong.

[Coral]

Sorry for the bad reads

Well done to catboi for getting it right and you were right to ignore me. I thought I understood where Faker's mindset was but clearly I did not, I have no idea what she was doing.

[Coral]

Well... someone at the Wall is lying about wanting absinthe voted. I guess just trying to WIFOM and make it seem like scum is happy with that outcome.

[Coral]

Thanks for modding, Ydra! I quite enjoyed day 1.

[Coral]

Faker as scum has plans and goals and I think there are so many other things that she could have done that would have been significantly more effective at improving the scumteam's chances of winning.

I don't have a master plan by actually doing that FTR I'm just straight up YOLOing the hell out of this game

Well. Oops

[Coral]

That makes sense, I appreciate the strategic insight! I suppose it was easier to say with hindsight that the minigames would be uphill battles. At the time of choosing the groupings, it probably wasn't as clear as I thought it might have been. And it did do the job of making you look unpaired, in my eyes at least!