Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Faker]

Faker -- I believe you know in your bones that me getting and keeping a townread on you is not a slam dunk

And I've been waiting to eat you alive for almost two years precisely because you think that!

[Faker]

1365 is worth explication IMO. 1379/1384 don't strike me as very AI and are probably the towniest posts of the day.

1460 is still comical.

[Faker]

(I think both 1379/1384 are very plausible thoughts for him to have. 1379 I concurred with, and while 1384 is just a bad post, he doesn't know ffery as well as I do and it passes at a glance)

[Faker]

445 and before, yes. I didn't expect you to townread me like you seem to imply in 445, but I was shocked at how hands-off you were. Was this a reaction to illicit, or something else entirely?

I also don't think my jovialty should surprise you. You've heard a lot about how my favorite part of law school is seeing other people nail hard questions and how it's leading me to want to go into academia. You also heard how much fun I had teaching other people near finals. While I'm not above creating narrative arcs in the vein of Iceland, I don't think there should be a question of my sincerity for this game.

[Faker]

I guess if he's looking to pivot topics entirely the selectiveness would be noteworthy, but shrug.

[Faker]

This alone is borderline enough to just vote skitter

On a similar note my confidence in Faker in the first phase was mainly done to see how scum would react to it, my anticipation was that in a world where Faker truly is town, scum would basically never let us stay together because

I'd all but promised a vote there.

FWIW this was not my impression

meh

I don't think faker is scum trying to ice me out

or whatever I just think his view of me is biased by my recent games to forget i can also get disinterested like this as town, e.g. mini normal 2181. No one stands out as super obviously scum to me, everyone has had some moments that felt towny to me, I don't have leads. The quantity of posts is less an exciting mystery to sift through and more of a chore.

Not super explicit, but. I was pretty content to shoot down doubts expressed toward you.

1258 is very specific to a behavior and is not at all a read of me, and you were very explicit about not having any reads you felt strongly about.

1359 also isn't really true. It's about who town has to pick between. skitter is probably more afraid of my scumplay than any other player at the table. I'm not good at reading her and have got it reversed basically every time.

1428 is also very on the nose with trying to imitate something he knows I look for in cat-town, which is his tendency to assume the worst in people.

P-Edit: I'm not demanding to be the voter. I think the voter choice should be left to Tempest and then we argue it out from there. I just don't prefer skitter being chosen, maybe it wins if she's scum but her being town really turns this game from being in our favor into a complete coinflip IMO. I respect her a lot but she struggles to read both of us and I think she'll agree.

[Faker]

ftr, i don't even remember why i was interested by the Gate, i believe i hoped one of us would be ICed and thus i could read Isis/she could read me and thus not have to solve a difficult player who goes to the Gate with us.

My point that 939 doesn't look like an direct attempt to pocket you, though it might be indirect.

[Faker]

I hope you're town, thing. Truly from the bottom of my soul.

Which really isn't very far down, the soul is barely existent

[Faker]

I already said I'm not voting until at least Day 5 and have repeatedly said Tempest should choose. It's a figure of speech.

[Faker]

I expected you to make more of an attempt to make things "fit" rather than immediately just give a correct, owning it answer.

[Faker]

Also as much as I've tried to avoiding getting tilted Isis did tilt me a bit yesterday so we happily throw her in dumpster if scum.

[Faker]

1367 hedges hard, addresses only the one behavior, says he has no reads and calls "everyone towny". He previously said I was a townlean but constantly hedged. I think the whole "I tried to trick scum by showing a hard townread on you" is a load of horse hockey.

[Faker]

I have more than doubled the next highest poster so okay, hard commit, no more from me until the evening, I will RESIST

[Faker]

Sorry Chara I just have to say I'm stupid and couldn't read, for some reason I started off interpreting things correctly but when I was looking at 943 I got it swapped and thought you had started the day saying Isis's angle was a pocket, that is obviously not true.

i think she's been playing defensively since we started. it'd be the easiest win in a minigame for her to miselim me, though i do think her desire to go where i go is also a genuine "i want to play with Chara" feeling and not a ploy, just one that happens to also work out with her goals.

i was really hoping for this outcome because i think if Isis and i

are

both town we can find each other, even if demona if scum is being exceedingly town to me and Isis both. unfortunately the game has in a way just started.

i got sidetracked but my main reasoning is this is an ideal situation for scum Isis. i started considering it seriously in 236, it feels like she's been playing to me to make me easier to handle. (and that Coral read is very... i don't know, obvious?)
when i said i didn't want to be in a minigame with her and i just hoped she was town, she brought up the time i was rightly suspicious of her as scum. a way to make me more confident i can read her.

i haven't reread with this in mind re: the timing of demona's locking in Wall.

[Faker]

I'm going to stay out of your way for the moment but I'm incredibly annoyed that you're choosing to play the minigame this way.

[Faker]

Tempest picking the voter also provides the same EV as having her pick the town, while still giving the players in the game some agency.

[Faker]

I'm skeptical that it is even remotely helpful if you're town, and it certainly isn't helping you if you're mafia.

I don't need to explain what's annoying. You don't need to ask.

Have your time in the sun but I'm washing my hands of it for now, as promised I'll stay out of your way for now.

[Faker]

Scum are essentially guaranteed to not vote first in simplified form, making it a 50/50. Hypothetically you can try and get some consensus on both players that the mafia is exactly X and X should vote first, but this is difficult and closer to 3 way.

Tempest selecting voter gives a 33% chance of picking the mafia and winning outright, a 33% chance if she picks town who then votes town.

[Faker]

if I'm scum why do you even care, I'm not beholden to making you not feel annoyed, obviously. I'm town though and you've all but declared me lockscum so I don't actually have reason to care if I'm annoying you, I'm not begging for you to townread me because I literally do not need it

cry more

This post made me sad. I don't think there's anything else to say.

[Faker]

Isis is scum at... i want to say 80% confidence, which for me is very high. this is the outcome i expected if demona wasn't swapped out, though that doesn't mean i'm any more prepared for the next phase.

feel free to vote for isis

i would be super happy to play as confirmed (noone is

really

going to argue that i stayed in the game as a scum to, like, manipulate the other games or whatever, right?)

On reread this is actually p bad imo

I disagree, it's basically in line with how demona was talking all of Day 1.

[Faker]

I'll be back later but I'm going to step out and get some cold air for now.

[Faker]

you seem to be unable to pick a lane on my alignment but are dissatisfied with me declaring decisively a course of action that does not favor you. if i'm scum you know i'm not averse to playing dirty and am not going to hold back, if i'm town and you're town and i'm being a dumbass then yes it's unfortunate but you've given me no reason to respond any differently

if we are town unable to find each other and skitter literally scumslipped in front of me only for me to go "ah, nevertheless, carry on", oh well, I'll have a laugh about it. I have no idea what you're trying to do at all here.

You literally said that if we're both town you have no reason to care about annoying me. I'm willing to vote first on Day 5 because

I really want to play and have fun

. Being a huge dick, constantly threatening to hostage take and only ever responding with WELL WHY DO YOU CARE HUH??? and refusing to accommodate for any of my strengths because I know you're willing to play dirty and not hold back just makes me want to vote skitter and have us both go back to retirement.

I don't really want to get in the gutter or prove I'm willing to throw to show I'm town. I want to have a fun game where I get to read and meta.

If you're scum, consider holding back and not playing dirty. You can play aggressive and bluff without being a gigantic jerk about it.

[Faker]

Maybe I should frame it this way: If I'm scum I'm definitely holding back and not playing dirty. Consider returning the favor.

[Faker]

If you want to talk about other slots or other games I'm down, but I really don't want a response to 1636.

[Faker]

I'm sorry. I really can't do this right now. I'll be back another time.

[Faker]

I'm fine with cat voting first. I heavily prefer for Tempest to sign off and for it to be later. I won't vote first unless Tempest asks me to, and any vote will be late temporally but can still flip first. I still don't really want the voter to be skitter despite her current preference.

There shouldn't be any confusion on my views.

[Faker]

I'm sorry that I ever made you play again. I look forward to seeing you vote skitter in two days time.

You can vote her whenever, so there's no need to keep baiting and demotivating me further. To use your words: Why care? You don't have to convince skitter of anything at this point.

[Faker]

I'm still mostly waiting on Tempest. If there's anything in particular someone wants me to look at in Wall or Gate, I'm down.

[Faker]

You're being completely fucking insufferable. Consider stopping regardless of alignment.

[Faker]

Sorry, over the line.

[Faker]

Perfect, thanks. Please stick to it. I will do the same.

[Faker]

@absinthe

445 and before, yes. I didn't expect you to townread me like you seem to imply in 445, but I was shocked at how hands-off you were. Was this a reaction to illicit, or something else entirely?

I also don't think my jovialty should surprise you. You've heard a lot about how my favorite part of law school is seeing other people nail hard questions and how it's leading me to want to go into academia. You also heard how much fun I had teaching other people near finals. While I'm not above creating narrative arcs in the vein of Iceland, I don't think there should be a question of my sincerity for this game.

[Faker]

Without me going into what I think does not make sense, do you mind elaborating on what *does* make sense+is AI from cat FYPOV?

[Faker]

I'm still off of center and can't really focus or think straight. Sorry about the last few pages.

[Faker]

Literal definition of bad faith but OK.

I'm skeptical that it is even remotely helpful if you're town, and it certainly isn't helping you if you're mafia.

I don't need to explain what's annoying. You don't need to ask.

Have your time in the sun but I'm washing my hands of it for now, as promised I'll stay out of your way for now.

if I'm scum why do you even care, I'm not beholden to making you not feel annoyed, obviously. I'm town though and you've all but declared me lockscum so I don't actually have reason to care if I'm annoying you, I'm not begging for you to townread me because I literally do not need it

cry more

you seem to be unable to pick a lane on my alignment but are dissatisfied with me declaring decisively a course of action that does not favor you. if i'm scum you know i'm not averse to playing dirty and am not going to hold back, if i'm town and you're town and i'm being a dumbass then yes it's unfortunate but you've given me no reason to respond any differently

if we are town unable to find each other and skitter literally scumslipped in front of me only for me to go "ah, nevertheless, carry on", oh well, I'll have a laugh about it. I have no idea what you're trying to do at all here.

You literally said that if we're both town you have no reason to care about annoying me. I'm willing to vote first on Day 5 because

I really want to play and have fun

. Being a huge dick, constantly threatening to hostage take and only ever responding with WELL WHY DO YOU CARE HUH??? and refusing to accommodate for any of my strengths because I know you're willing to play dirty and not hold back just makes me want to vote skitter and have us both go back to retirement.

I don't really want to get in the gutter or prove I'm willing to throw to show I'm town. I want to have a fun game where I get to read and meta.

If you're scum, consider holding back and not playing dirty. You can play aggressive and bluff without being a gigantic jerk about it.

Maybe I should frame it this way: If I'm scum I'm definitely holding back and not playing dirty. Consider returning the favor.

i don't think declaring i'm voting someone who is not you when i am town is emotional terrorism. If you think me not bowing down and townreading you is dickish, that is your problem, not mine. You do not get to control me or my vote and I will vote when I am ready to.

I highly suggest you get over yourself.

people were speculating that as a hypothetical but but that doesn't actually suggest a meaningful associative link, no? it beingin people's guesses isn't damning, people can be right on one player and wrong on another

Fair enuf, i'm just not conviced that coral comes out worse than you in your interaction with her

understood I guess, probably better to move on to other subjects

Catboi are u leaning towards me being town in the keep now?

I thought that was pretty explicit, yes. Not like 100% confident which is why I'm still questioning your POV on things you say but stated intention is to vote for you in a day or two when people won't yell at me for disrupting the game or whatever. I think Faker was counting on a default townread from me and when he didn't get it he's been trying to ATE me but he can't actually call me town so it's all been directed mostly at guilt tripping me.

[Faker]

Only to later flop and go "Oh I don't know why you'd be so upset unless you're scum"

Absolutely incredible.

[Faker]

"worse" is disingenuous given that you clearly think he did nothing wrong at all but whatever

[Faker]

First, congratulations to the town for winning so cleanly. While I didn't keep close track, from what I saw you all played well, and Day 1 was generally very sharp. It was mostly fun while I was here.

Second, I want to apologize to everyone for leaving my own invitational. I realize how shitty that was, and while I didn't take it lightly, I know that there's really no making that up, especially for some of you (Tammy, ffery, Chara) who would not have played had I not dragged you into it. I hope you all managed to enjoy the game regardless. I also want to apologize to Isis and ffery for leaving you alone, and I know you were counting on me in several different respects, all of which I let you down in. While I touch on it in my notes, I especially did not utilize fferyllt or her strengths correctly, either in my rote dayplay or in my role as the (reluctant) strategist and that was a massive and completely avoidable error.

Third, thank you to MathBlade for serving as a passionate and engaged replacement, especially for a slot that was essentially doomed on my replace-out. Thank you to Ydrasse for running this game on my request, and I'm sorry for all of the headache I caused you.

Fourth, some strategic notes. These are essentially just going to be copy-pasted from my discussion with cat after Keep flipped, but I'm happy to answer any questions if they exist.

Spoiler: Misc. strategic notes/game commentary

iirc last time I checked you had keyed in on me/absinthe, which was obviously correct and pretty straightforward. Nothing too elaborate there, know the rest of the table will not catch it and just depends on me keeping the Keep under control until flips
#1 strategic error of the game was not properly utilizing fferyllt, who I expected to be able to deftly navigate that [Day 1 push on her] and towntell through it to Tempest
and instead it appeared that she had no idea how to handle it and it might have demotivated her entirely
Setting her up to succeed more directly with a fake townsolving schema probably would have been more effective
Night phase my totally scientific intutition had it at 60-70% chance of winning the Keep, 40% chance of Gate, 40% Wall
Turnaround [by cat on my slot] was expected [on daystart], just have to at that point, instavoting me or blindly trusting me there would have always been completely stupid
I didn't really have a solid plan for dealing with it other than just seeing what happened
and setting up the chance of winning other games/flipping other games first provided for a hedge
I think #1 strategic error was not correctly using ffery, but #2 would have been that I should have just bit the bullet and gone to Gate or Wall
I had a lot more confidence in my ability to deal with the reads of Skitter, Coral, you, etc than I did shiki or Chara
I don't think that is wrong, but it was certainly better for our win % to just accept that things would not really make sense or be clearly foreseeable for me and just take the bad matchup
The swap/clear that happened was essentially the goal since shiki locked Wall, but I did toy with the idea of Coral/absinthe swap and skitter/Faker swaps, which might have been more interesting.
I went against those because I think Coral walking into a game with me as scum would be questionable given Eurybia, and if I did lose I would have much rather taken down 2 players who do very well in 1v1 scenarios. Coral is still too rough and doesn't know how to play them, ie. Eurybia
(Angle I took in Keep is that absinthe/skitter as S/S might be +EV across both games-absinthe gets to go vs. Tammy instead of vs. me, skitter might not think it explicitly winning but she still has good chances, esp. after D1)

[Faker]

Oh, and no redactions in the scum PT from me.

[Faker]

I got the exact minigames I wanted from the starting point of shiki locking Wall. I didn't have nearly the degree of strategy or domineering that I do in most games, but I still played pretty hard and had several things in mind.

The idea was essentially that I could probably survive an early scumlean from cat in the Keep and maybe flip it by Day 4 or 5, and a combination of ffery's irl issues dying down and me having more time to interference would improve our chances at Gate. I didn't think me/cat was a good matchup in the Keep, where he can just ignore reading me entirely and rely on PoE, so I selected skitter to mitigate that possibility. I didn't think Tempest/fferyllt was actually a bad matchup at all in either of Gate/Wall, but that's a source of disagreement.

This failed for a few reasons, but #1 was definitely not properly setting up or utilizing fferyllt. I set her up such that she was going to fail no matter what game she got put in, and cat's most accurate point on my slot was in the partner read.

[Faker]

(I wasn't persuaded by him missing the parallel between our public positions, but YMMV. He had another point that Faker-town never gets left in Keep, which is probably true and it's why I made an argument that an absinthe-skitter swap would be an attempt to even out and gain some win % across both games, as opposed to putting all of the eggs into Gate.)