Open 186; Jungle Republic (Game Over)

[Furry]

Hey huns

I should be all caught up by friday at the latest. Midterms in thermo and dynamics this week might slow me down a bit, but my friday class appears to be cancelled.

[Furry]

Oh, and my idea on who to lynch

Jazz/Lowell/FF are not-wolf. Going by vote analysis alone im sure of that.

That leaves PD/HF/RV/Lynx/me as possible without even having read the game.

If the seer can claim with two of those five as non-wolf its going to be useful regardless of what we do. It brings the killing role to one in two or three. Only downside is it gets them killed instead of scum (unless we mislynch where wolf shouldnt kill)

~~~

I believe theory says we should be trying to lynch scum today as well. If we lynch wolf, we have a 4:3 nightless game where either there is a confirmed town in seer claim, or a counter losing us the game on a seer lynch or making it a 4:2 with confirmed town.

If we lynch scum, it goes to 4:2:1. Worst case scenario is a 3:2:1 with a dead seer, best case is 4:1:1 with caught wolf. Far more likely case is 3:2:1 with caught wolf, who we lynch then have a 3:2 game with one scum dead.

[Furry]

Well I just got out of about five hours of classes so im a little burnt out and could of said something stupid too.

Seer should either claim or heavily crumb their results though. I am assuming they were smart enough to be able to clear at least two (themselves included even) from the five group.

Anyways, I have a thermo exam tomorrow so im going to study for that now. Might use a break to read up the first part of this game later

[Furry]

I skimmed day one while making dinner. Last wolf is either dank (now PD?) or SB (now RV?).

Gut and simple logic says dank, meta (having played a 8-2-2 open) with SB before says him. In that game he almost never mentioned his parter (who was being called town) the entire game. He has almost never mentioned BMC this game, and did attempt to create a MR counterwagon during the wagon.

Given that I think we should be lynching mafia-scum and not wolf-scum though, I think other lynches are better unless its confirmed wolf-scum.

Seer really should claim though. I am dead serious about that one, ESPECIALLY if both cleared are alive. It creates a confirmed town player, if we get a confirmed town player, we can use their info to possibly lynch wolf-scum sending us to a 4:3 with one confirmed town.

@seer

- If you can clear two people claim now. If you have a guilty claim now. Both of these are in the best interest of the town, as lynching wolf today after a claim creates a confirmed town situation

[Furry]

@All town (scum need not respond)...do you think it is better to try and figure out who the lone remaining werewolf is or to go after mafia (since we have 3x the the odds). And who are your top suspects.

At this point, I don't care one way or the other. They all need to die eventually. Lynching the wolf means no deaths at night and basically makes this game nightless, but there is 1 wolf and 3 mafia so I wouldn't complain about a mafia lynch.

Mafia lynch is optimal unless we have an uncountered seer claim.

With a mafia lynch, there is a 1/3 chance (2/6) that wolf kills scum if they are shooting at random. If that happens its a 4-1-1 with wolf almost for sure caught through seer and last mafia with two ties and needing to survive a lot of mislynched.

2/3 goes to a 3-2-1, where wolf is caught or almost caught where we can force a 3-2 nightless with a possible confirmed town through seer and ties to dead scum to work off.

Furry replaces Brocktree. Welcome!

Heh, cool. Furry was fun to play with in my first game on this site.

Hellz yeah hun! I always replace.

[Furry]

Not countering. If someone is countering please do it now.

[Furry]

Fairly sure Lowell is not a wolf, but chances of him being mafia are high. Mafia need to be removed now due to them nearly matching a majority right now.

We are gunning for mafia UNLESS we can hit wolf. If we can hit wolf we go into a 4:3 game with fitz being confirmed town. If we dont hit wolf today, we are losing the seer and have at best a 3:2 after hitting a wolf with no confirmed town.

@fitz - no claiming results untill everyone has confirmed not being seer

[Furry]

Happy to wait until everyone has a chance to consider claiming seer. Since you have come in full of fire furry...what do you suggest we do if I'm not the only seer claiming? hmmmmmmm....

I will reveal this either after a counter happens or when no counter happens. No need to encourage/discourage a claim when its good/bad for wolf/mafia

[Furry]

@Flurry

Just noticed that...

There is no "L" if furry. You can call me furry, toyger or hun. Any of those I respond to.

[Furry]

Oh yeah, that was supposed to segway into a meaningul post...

I think lowell and RV are the only ones left to say if they are countering or not. Lynx, PD, FF, Jazz have all posted with no counter already. Would like to get this game rolling if they can step up and say something here. Apathy is deadly

[Furry]

Since its a confirmed guilty do people still want me putting up the way to deal with a counter?

Vote Paradox

If for any reason he is not a wolf, wolf needs to kill fitz who would obviously be mafia.

Should 4:3 with a confirmed should be interesting

[Furry]

Well I wasnt actually counting on a positive result... but what I had was

Counter means one of the following situations

seer-wolf
seer-mafia

We dont lynch either (unless its horribly obvious one is scum) and shoot for other mafia. We hit mafia, more information shows on who the seer is the next day and we should have a confirmed wolf if its B, and if its A just more information on the two (realisticly if its B seer dies, if its A other town dies). We hit town, wolf cant kill, or has to kill scum. In short time wolf will be caught, and we still end up with a similar scenario to what we have today.

It was a really confusing situation, and im not even 100% sure what the outcome would of been. I think the claim basically ended all chances wolf had, unless they managed to pull off a 3:2:1 scenario, where town loses unless scum gets hit at night.

Moreso then knowing what to do with a counter, this was me realizing that no counter completely eliminated wolf group from being a threat to the town. I tried to attempt to word posts in such a way that made scum not want to counter.

[Furry]

Yep

Im just going to work on a bigger catch up post and make it this weekend sometime. I still havent read the game more then a D1 skim and deaths

[Furry]

Still need to read closer, but I like Lowell/FF(saber) lynches as the first two scum.

Mostly looking at these VCs

**Note, given that wolf-mafia are not on the same team, I am representing wolf as green, as they are not of the same alignment as mafia and are all dead.
**Note, I am putting fitz down as green

saberwolf:

Memorable Raindrops, bigmc109, Paradoxombie, dank

bigmc109:

curiouskarmadog

, Budja, Lowell

Memorable Raindrops:

Scott Brosius, saberwolf

Lynx The Antithesis:

GinzkeyPlatz

Scott Brosius:

Lynx The Antithesis

Not Voting:

hewitt

saberwolf:

Memorable Raindrops, bigmc109, Paradoxombie, dank,

Lynx The Antithesis, hewitt

bigmc109:

curiouskarmadog,

Budja, Lowell

Memorable Raindrops:

Scott Brosius, saberwolf

Lynx The Antithesis:

GinzkeyPlatz

bigmc109:

curiouskarmadog,

Lowell, Flava Flave, Jazzmyn, Lynx The Antithesis,

dank

Lowell:

Paradoxombie,

hewitt

Flava Flave:

bigmc109

Sanhora:

Scott Brosius

Jazzmyn:

Sanhora

I think its Lowell/FF/(lynx?) mostly off of how the wagons moved from saber to bmc.

Saber(FF) as town would of needed to get to L-1 on at LEAST five town votes (knowing im town). I really doubt town gets to L-1 with no scum votes, leaning Lynx scum and FF. I would expect FF scum means Lynx scum, but I dont want a lynx lynch before a FF one.

Now, when the wagon went to bmc (non-mafia) we have four living players in there. I would expect at least two of [lowell, FF, lynx, Jazz] to be scum. I like Jazz for town, so it comes down to two+ of [lowell, FF, lynx]. I can actually see all three being scum, but there is a reoccuring theme of lowell and FF being scum in my VC analysis.

Not voting yet. Im most interested in what confirmed town has to say (as vote as there is something I noticed recently that can confirm another town if we hit certain things, again not said untill postgame/it happens).

[Furry]

Not voting yet. Im most interested in what confirmed town has to say (as vote as there is something I noticed recently that can confirm another town if we hit certain things, again not said untill postgame/it happens).

You're most interested in what

I

have to say? Outside of the two primary suspects I have at the moment it may be a bit before I get more in depth. I like the VC you did though I'm not sure where all the VC are coming from. Were they the 3 end of day VC's for each of the three lynches? It didn't look like it and those would be the most helpful IMO. If they are the lynch VCs....disregard and I blame it on another post-bedtime post.

Actually yes you. I spent most of my time in structures thinking about any way to put having a confirmed in this situation to our advantage and found it I think. It depends on where you are going though if its exploitable, and forcing your action would actually stop it.

The vote counts are formation of saber/FF wagon, apex of said wagon, and end of D1.

[Furry]

Also D3-end VC isnt going to be useful, it was result driven

[Furry]

Vote Lynx

Rifka would be my next choice.

Then Lowell or Jazz. Hard to pick one of them.

You know... is there some sort of a rule that whenever I say "if A is scum B is scum" they have to vote eachother in the next post?

Lets hear a case hun.

[Furry]

Furry, do you still believe it's likely these two are scum with me after they've both focused largely on me right from the start of this Day?

Well lowell is more in flail mode (knows they are dead so are just shutting up), but yeah you-FF is out the window at at this point.

Im planning on voting lowell soon here, but want to see what else I can scrounge up.

@all - Does anyone think lowell is town? Someone else is more likely scum?

[Furry]

@RV - If your top suspect is lowell, why arent you voting him?

IIRC Jazz has Lowell as a top suspect too, he is in my top two, I think FF is the only one who doesnt think he is scum, which is a bit of a cause for concern, but the counterwagon appearing on Lynx makes me think Lowell is scum.

Once Jazz checks in im voting.

[Furry]

The cool part is the thing I opened the day im talking about looks like it might happen.

[Furry]

Checking in to say im not hammering.

[Furry]

Vote Lynx

Gambit time

[Furry]

heh

[Furry]

I think this brings me to something like 10-3 as scum...

Was a wierd spot. The issue I realized far to late with fitz was if he was on a 3-3 votecount, it practically confirmed that he was voting scum and the other three were voting town. With it being obvious that lowell was in serious shit, that became a concern in making a counterwagon that I underestimated at first.

What I didnt expect was FF being off how much he was. This became a new prediciment because he was the best for scum to keep around, after a lowell lynch though he was going to be completely doomed, so it became necessary to either get another town lynched after him (my original goal, was leaning to lynx if you look at what I was saying) or to get someone else lynched first.

Thats why stalling happened, I knew lowell was going to be voting lynx (which is argueale from lynx-scum) but was wondering if I could have RV show up before lowell hit L-1. If he didnt, going for a mislynch became deadly for us if it wasnt played right, while untill then it was hard but doable.

I actually debated fake hammering lowell and declaring scum win. Not too sure how that would of worked out though. Was an interesting game though that needed to be won fast for scum, since there was almost no chance jazz was getting lynched, so reaching a F4/F3 with the game still being in progress lost it for scum.

Might be the first time ive won without having read anything but day one though.

[Furry]

was completely off about jazz and lynx, my only contributing factor was to nail big.

not sure why the wolf chose me to pop off.

This all surprised me too. Maybe it was because wolf was afraid of keeping non-wolf looking people in the alive pool, but why would they take a shot at someone who could get lynched as mafia shot?

Quite disappointing to me, since you getting lynched would of put some stuff up on Jazz who would of been next to impossible to lynch.

[Furry]

Good game Furry...you injected some much needed activity (along with FF to a somewhat lesser extent).

This game does prove the point that games with low activity are much easier to take control of as scum and lead the town to its own demise. If it was very active, it might of been much harder to stave off the lynch of Lowell.