Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!

[Switz]

Hey, everyone, glad to be here, etc.

Okay, I've only done a quick skim of the thread so far, so I'll be doing a more dedicated re-read tonight. My initial thoughts were that we needed to lynch either of the Xyte|Millar pair but the Fidelis claim has sort of thrown me for a loop, so I'll be checking that out especially. I'd have to say it might be enough to convince me to jump on, since it seems anti-scum for Fidelis to claim at this point, but I'm reserving judgment for the time being.

[Switz]

Ok, here’s the results of my read. Apologies for the length but it was a first read, so...

I'm using all the old names, cause none of the replacements have really established themselves yet, and most of the posts are by their original players. If I've bolded your name in a paragraph, please answer the question there if you could, that'd be great.

So, from the top (post numbers are topicwide, not ISOs):

62/64/65 – When Robo and yabba have their early-game spat, Chi criticizes them but votes Robo without even FoSing yabba. Fidelis picks this out (all the more interesting if they are Lovers) and Chi says he did this b/c “someone was already voting for him, and I don’t want to be accused for making a wagon with a random vote” This seems like much too much thought for a townie; scum would be more likely to overjustify their votes, especially at this stage. And yes, I came up with that idea before reading youngminii’s post immediately after, which has the same basic idea.

71 – Don votes Chi here and chooses not to give a reason. When he does give his reason, in 143, he says he voted Chi because he is PARF, Paranoid Attitude/Role Fishing. This is pretty accurate, but,

Don

, why couldn’t you have just come out and said this in the first place, rather than leading us on for over 50 posts. Moreover, in 150, after ZeroFang asks Don why he kept his reasons a secret, Don responds with the unsettling statement that “writing up ‘cases’ is a courtesy and a privilege. not a right.” Which is totally true. Except not doing so is anti-town.

74 – Reverse Simplicity random number votes himself and sets off a misguided debate on whether selfvoting is scummy even if it’s random. What’s interesting to note is that literally 4 minutes later, Xite jumps on RevSim for the selfvote, and actively chooses not to unvote after having RNG explained to him, which, in retrospect, could theoretically be a bit scummy. Mr.Sandman jumps on this wagon too, which will prove ironic since he’s become quite the opponent of Xite in recent pages. It’s also interesting to note that RevSim is one of the possibilities for Millar’s Lover, and that he only posts in relation to this debate and has provided no other commentary to the game.

87 – Chi asks about lovertells. SCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUM. Yes, it could just be the act of a misguided, overzealous townie, but I doubt it. And, in his only post that doesn’t deal with the fallout of his selfvote (88), Reverse Simplicity encourages this misguided, scummy endeavor. Which does not encourage me.

89 – Robo votes randomly for Millar, who has two posts at this point, one of which is a confirm and the other of which is a random vote. What’s worse, Smashbro and ZeroFang point this out shortly after, and Robo completely evades the question. Scummy.

Robo

: this definitely needs to be explained. This is pre-crazy-Millar and makes absolutely no sense to me.

152 – yabba here decides to spontaneously suggest ISOing Shattered Viewpoint. This, I believe, turns out to be useful, as SV looks scummy there and elsewhere later in the day, but,

yabba

, how did you pick SV? Fidelis asks but I don’t believe you gave a specific answer.

163 – Don does a number of interesting things here, the most noticed of which is his asking whether or not lovers commit suicide when their partner is lynched, which sets the players off on quite a diversion. Robo mentions it a few posts later (171), and when he doesn’t get a reaction, he tries again on 175. This time, he and Don get into what’s later called a chatroom-style fight that serves to do nothing except distract the town from scumhunting. Yes, it’s a bit odd that Don didn’t know Lovers died when their partner did, but it’s much less scummy than using that lapse in knowledge as a springboard to derail the Town.

166 – Xite says one of these three (Don, Chi, and Yabba) is scum, but has “a feeling” that it’s no more that one is. Uh huh. That would be an easy claim to make if you were scum, now wouldn’t it Xite? That said, Chi is one of our prime voting options, and Don’s not on my list of towniest players either. I think the most interesting thing to note here, however, is that for all his talk about suspecting Millar, here and elsewhere, he doesn’t actually vote Millar until… ever. Xite never, ever votes Millar. What's sad is that at this point their relationship is so confusing I don't know if that's scummy or not. But it's pretty close.

191/197 – Millar claims Robo as his love. Robo decides to play along and says he is Millar’s lover. I really don’t understand the rationale behind this,

Robo

, would it be possible for you to flesh out your motivations for me?

240 – Miller finally claims Vanilla Townie, and basically gives up for now.

251 – In the middle of all this, XITE ADVOCATES ACTIVELY LYNCHING LOVERS?!? This is quite possibly the worst idea yet, laying the groundwork for massive WIFOM when outed pairs don’t die and setting it up so the Mafia can easily plow through the Town. Xite also outs themselves as a lover, but chooses not to out their partner—which is dumb, because that person would die anyways after we lynched Xite. Just another scummy move by Xite.

252 – Pittbunny, who has barely contributed up to now, votes Robo without giving reasons.

Pitt

, what were your reasons?

257 – Millar agrees that outing the lovers is the next best step.. As said above, this is an atrocious idea, and his supporting it doesn’t hold well with me.

297 – Millar reasserts that outing the lovers is a good idea, and tries to use numbers to justify. I don’t think he’s using the right numbers though, so I’m going to move on to…

298 – Chi pointing out how bad of an idea killing the Lovers is. Which really irritates me because up until this point Chi is really really scummy but this is a pro-town statement to make which he really doesn’t have to. Still not sure what to think about this.

314 – As much as I find Millar to be anti-town, he does explicitly say here that Robo is scum, and while it’s OMGUS if Millar is scum, it’s interesting to note because Robo’s really jumping out at me in this read as well. Millar later says (in 318) that his other two picks are Fidelis and Shattered—something to consider if we lynch Millar and he does flip town.

326/327: Robo finally convinces Millar to give up the gambit. Or something. I still can’t get over how much I dislike this gambit and Robo’s interaction with Millar during it.

332: Xite softclaims as Millar’s lover, encouraging town to lynch one of the two.

335/355: Then Miller claims Xite is not his lover. This is the part where I get a migraine. I’ll go into a more detailed discussion of this paradigm at the end. Millar claims his lover is lurking, and later claims his lover is on the prod wagon (358). This means, if Millar is truly a Lover, he is either lying, and his lover is Xite, or he is telling the truth, and his lover is Muthaa, Pittbunny, Reverse Simplicity, or myself. And, thankfully, I’m not Millar’s lover.

392: Don, who hasn’t been all that active lately, is still pushing a Chi lynch, which worries me somewhat. He’s eventually convinced by Pittbunny and Fidelis, but I don’t like that he has to be convinced.

454: Xite claims to be a Vanilla Townie who was lying to the Town in order to somehow save the Town from the Mafia NKing a townie who is a lover and getting 2 kills in one night. It doesn’t really make sense, but the possibility that it’s true now throws a wrench into our possibilities for the lynch. However, as I’ll point out below, I still think Xite is our best option for today's lynch.

472 – Chi returns, then says he would have hammered Xite. Umm….scummy much? Luckily, yabba and Don jumped on it so I don’t really have to.

501 – Fidelis breaks from the pack here and votes SV briefly. I was going to ask you why (and you can most certainly answer if you want), but then…

510 – Fidelis claims to be Chi’s lover and votes for him, thinking he’s the treacherous lover, which throws a whole new wrench into the mix. At this point, I think it’s pretty safe to say that Fidelis isn’t bluffing, because Chi’s pretty close to getting lynched, in spirit if not in votes. However, we now have a problem. Chi, Xite, and Millar have now all been accused by various other people of being the Treacherous Lover, and they can’t all be. So we need to think about who’s best to kill in general, not who’s most likely to be the Treacherous Lover, because that way lies madness.

Okay, so, regardless of who else I think is scummy—which will come shortly after this—I think our lynch today needs to be either Xite, Millar, or Chi. So let’s look at them separately, and consider the possibilities if we lynch them.

Xite

: Initially claimed to be Millar’s lover, is presently claiming to be a Vanilla Townie who came up with a devious master plan I still really don’t understand that won’t work anymore.

If Xite is town

: We mislynch a VT, only losing one townie, and not a pair of Lovers.

If Xite is mafia

: If Xite’s not a VT, it seems most likely he’s either Millar’s Treacherous Lover or generic Scum. We have thus killed one member of the Mafia, possibly losing one (confusing) Townie.

Millar

: Initially acted insane, then claimed to be Robo’s Lover, then claimed to be Vanilla, then was claimed as Xite’s Lover, then claimed to be the pro-town lover of Muthaa, Pittbunny, or Reverse Simplicity (or me, but again, I'm not counting myself).

If Millar is town

: We lynch two townies (unless despite all odds we get the Treacherous Lover), and no longer get closure on Xite because of her claim of being a lying Vanilla.

If Millar is mafia

: Honestly, if Millar’s lying, I have no idea what will happen, but it seems likely that Millar will be scum, and maybe is the Treacherous Lover.

Chihuahua

: Has not claimed to my recollection, but has been claimed as Fidelis’ Lover. Fidelis has no real reason to lie, so this is pretty set in stone; the real question is whether or not Chi is the TL.

If Chi is town

: Chi is scummy, but not actual scum. We then lose two townies.

If Chi is scum

: Chi is the Treacherous Lover, and we lose one townie and one scum.

So, if we look at this from a numbers perspective, with lynching scum being +1, lynching town being -1, and the best outcome marked with an *:

Xite is town: -1
*Xite is mafia: +1 or +0
Millar is town: -2
*Millar is mafia: +1 or +0
Chi is town: -2
*Chi is scum: +0

In order to get the best result possible, we have to vote for either Xite or Millar, and in order to avoid the worst of those two results, we should vote Xite. There’s certainly enough evidence to justify him as being scum, and lynching him has the best possibility of working in our favor. Luckily, I'm already voting for Xite thanks to my predecessor, so I see no reason to change anything at this point.

That said, I think, statistically, at least one of these three is a townie who just got in the way, which means we need to keep our options open. As I’ve stated above, I’ve found actions of both Don and Robo to be very scummy at times, and I really don’t like the way they’ve been interacting with our three options for today across the board. I’m also not getting very good vibes from RevSim or SV, although I think the latter might be osmosis-dislike because he’s been getting targeted an awful lot. Neither of them have posted much of anything thus far though (especially RevSim, who’ll probably be someone else soon at this rate), so at this point I can’t go much further than suspicions.

[Switz]

TLDR: Don't lynch a lover because a townie will die with them.
I don't think lynching based on probability does it, it's just the same as mindless random voting. I'ld be more inclined to lynched based on suspicious actions.

Also your hate at lynching lovers: If the lover groups are dead it's just a basic game setup 10:3, nothing terrifying here. Honestly it's not the best idea, but by no means is it the worse.

Enigma:

Definition on TLDR? I'm not finding it in the wiki and I don't think it relates to any of our players... At any rate, if this directed at me, as I'm interpreting it: Yes, lynching lovers is not the worst idea available if we get the treacherous lover right away. But, if we don't, we put ourselves in a lot of trouble Days down the line because every time we lynch the mafia gets to strike and they know who the town is. If we lynch lovers today, we might lose three townies by morning, with the NK, and if we keep blindly trying to get lovers in the hope that one is treacherous, we could end up down 8 townies and down only 1 scum. That's a rather farfetched possibility, but it illustrates why targetting the lovers is dangerous unless there's an ulterior motive for believing one of them is scum.

Zerofan:

Your logic above makes sense, and it's the reason I'm still considering a Chi lynch as a last resort today. However, I'm confused as to why you're leaving Xite off your scum list and putting Millar on. You say you're hesitant to trust Xite, but then you trust him enough to make him your least favorite choice out of our lynch options today and don't even put him in the list of your top scum picks. Yes, Millar's early game play was insane, but Xite's early gameplay was flat out scummy.

wait what?
also, if you want to be lynched I can help!

Unvote, Vote Reverse Simplicity

As said above, this is literally 4 minutes after RevSim's selfvote, and is not pro-town, regardless of the reason for the anti-town selfvote.

EBWOP, the good try thing was meant for millar

Okay, it seems like 1 of these three have to be scum, but for some reason I can't see two of them as scum with any combination of them, don't ask why, just a feeling.

Don, Chi and Yabba

Next,

millar's chances of being scum are 1/6. do lovers commit suicide if their partner is lynched? cause that would mean lynching millar gives us a 33% chance of lynching scum. and considering that its millar, it doesn't sound like a bad idea. that's one to think on.

I actually really like this line of reasoning, but I just caaaaaan't lynch my luver. Cuz with him saying it so much, it must be true right?
By the way Millar, I just ISO'd you and youre definitely active lurking. That calls for suspicion.

One of the many instances where Xite "suspects" Millar but doesn't actually do anything about it.

Those are just some of the examples that appear

before

Millar goes crazy. At this point in the game, the only scummy thing Millar's done is lurk, whereas Xite has already garnered suspicion from players, including yourself, as I recall. I know Chihuahua is a good choice for a lynch because he's been acting scummy just as long as Xite if not more, but I think Xite's a better one because at this point I'm pretty convinced he's mafia and there's probably not a townie attached.

[Switz]

Okay, well the TLDR is technically right...except it focuses in on one part of what I was saying to the exclusion of everything else. At any rate, I'm not saying we should vote Xite because the probability that he is scum is the best, I'm saying we should do so because he's acting really scummy, and the probability that he is scum justifies the lynch further. It's a piece of evidence, not total justification.

I'm also just now noticing that Enigma is the replacement for RevSim, who I pointed out before as acting sort of scummy. I really wish Enigma wasn't V/LA now but I suppose there's nothing we can do about that.

On to David's posts; I'm agreeing with/understanding most of what you're saying, but would it be possible for you to expand a bit on what you're thinking with your honorable mention on Shattered? It seems to me like people are getting either a very good vibe or a very bad vibe from him, which seems a bit strange in and of itself.

@everyone:

Focusing back in on the Xite|Millar|Chi thing, I think maybe it'd be good for those of us who haven't explicitly done so to rank these three in terms of which would be the best lynch. It might help us find a compromise that works best.

Mine is:

Xite
Chi
Millar

I know this is slightly out of whack with my probabilities that I mentioned before, but, upon further review, the case against Chi is looking better than the one against Millar, and we also have the benefit of knowing who Chi's Lover is/that Chi has a Lover.

[Switz]

guys, vote chi chi. if chi chi is town, scums killing them anyway. the quicker the lovers die or get confirmed, the sooner we find the one scum among them. no sense in running anyone else up yet. lynch chi, go to night, regroup day 2 with more info. all this pussyfooting is going to grow the thread to unrereadable proportions. thats bad for town.

If you think TownChi would get killed overnight, why would we lynch them now? Conversely, couldn't your argument be used on Xite as well? And what makes you think scum would aim straight for Chi anyways?--they have a lot of options aside from him who aren't in danger of us lynching them the old-fashioned way.

[Switz]

Has Chichichi even posted in the last week? where did he go?
I like to give anyone that is a planned lynch the opportunity to explain/discredit information.

When is the deadline again? is it in 5 days? no matter how long, we should atleast wait a bit before we lynch anyone.

What no one is seeming to consider (Mostly because it would be incredibally bold) is that the "Lover" of Chi is lying to get him lynched. it is possible.
We should examine this matter further, because, I feel we did Millar and Xite to death, we cannot really draw anything more from them right now, but Chi/(Whoever his "lover" was, i forget) have a lot to give still.
Whether it be in the "Lover" telling us what he thinks so when he does die and flips townie, we have a good place to look etc, etc.

So @Chi, anything to say for yourself?
@Whoever his lover is, can you give us your views of the game/players in it as a whole?

It doesn't make sense for Fidelis to try and get Chi lynched if he is scum. Either Fidelis is the Treacherous Lover, in which case he'll die w/ Chi and flip scum, or he's regular scum who won't die and will be subsequently lynched on D2. Claiming to be Chi's lover and actively looking for his lynch makes Fidelis effectively confirmed town...which I'm pretty sure we established a few posts ago.

That said, I do want to hear from Chi, either way, since we have the time for now.

[Switz]

yabba - Thanks for getting back to me on SV, I'll take a look at him overNight. And exactly what in particular are you referring to with my trichotomizing? I'm sure you're right to point it out, I just want to make sure it's not something that I really do think has to be an "either-or" situation, like my discussion in my last post about Fidelis. Because if Fidelis is scum, he would have to be either the TL or a regular scum, which to me proves he's not and we can trust him.

And just to clarify in case I hadn't, if we get close to deadline I will absolutely move my vote to Chi if we're in danger of a no lynch. I'd rather get rid of Xite but Chi's a good consolation prize.

[Switz]

I, at least, am waiting for Fidelis to post again, as lynching Chi will kill him as well. Most town don't get a chance for a last will and testament of sorts, and we have a good opportunity to hear from confirmed town one last time before they die. So I think that is going to add to discussion, actually.

[Switz]

If the scum shot Pitt because they were looking for millar's lover, why not just shoot millar?

This is a very good question that makes me rethink everything I thought about Millar. Dislike.

Anyways,

Vote: Shattered Viewpoint

for hammering not because he thought Chi was scum, but because he thought Fidelis was scum...

[Switz]

Pitt also was blatantly pressuring Xite, who was in that shortlist which was never really trichotomized until Switz asked the ill-fated question. But I need to double-check who else is scummy.

Umm, I don't see how that question was ill-fated at all, seeing as how one of the three people on the shortlist was scum. And I wasn't the only person who narrowed it down to Xite, Millar, or Chi as our D1 lynch, and I'm pretty sure I wasn't the first to do it either. I'm just the only one who got called a trichotomizer.

FoS: yabba

And I agree, Enigma, as the only three options remaining to be townMillar's Lover, we're all in danger. I'm not really sure what you're suggesting we do though, the last bit of your post is a little confusing. Are you saying we should semi-align, or just not start accusing each other of being Millar's Lover?

[Switz]

wonderful. four confirmed townies who shouldn't claim just yet. i'm going to sift through the chichi wagon detractors and find another scum. let you know what i come up with. oh and... you're welcome.

Just an fyi...I don't trust you to do our scumhunting for us. I didn't like your play yesterDay, and I don't like it toDay either. I don't want to vote you w/o ISOing or getting a decent response from Shattered.

Speaking of which...

As for why I thought Fidelis was scum, well, for starters, Fidelis says here that Xite & millar are better lynches than chihuahua. So, far from ME trying to take the spotlight off of chihuahua, that's precisely what Fidelis was doing. Same thing here, where he votes me due to HIS lack of reading comprehension (while still trying to protect chihuahua).

As the tide turned, he finally votes chihuahua when, apparently, he sees that it can't be avoided.

I'm not ALWAYS right when I scumhunt (and my apologies to those of you who are, in fact, perfect). This time, apparently, I was half-wrong. I just had the wrong lover.

That's all history now, though.

I've got to run; more content and thoughts on current events either late tonight or sometime tomorrow.

Really? This is really what you're going to go with? Let's think about this a minute.

So here's why imo a Xite lynch > Millar lynch > chichi lynch. For one thing, we know that at least one of Xite and Millar is lying, so lynching either one of these is preferable to chichi, who we can take care of later given they remain scummy. Also, a Millar lynch isn't guaranteed to lynch a liar, since if Millar is telling the truth, then we just randomly lynched a lover pair.

But, if we lynch Xite and Xite is lying, we killed a liar, and if Xite is telling the truth, then Millar dies and we still kill a liar.

I spaced that out for the benefit of lazy readers that won't see my previous post.

This is the first post you link to. First of all, this argument makes sense even if Fidelis is not connected to Chi in any way. It even convinces Don, the person who singlehandedly caught Chi (according to him). Secondly, Fidelis made this post later in the day before you hammered Chi and killed him.

Bah, you know what, I looked back through the thread to find examples, and he does seem really scummy. VOTE: chihuahua0. I'm going out on a limb here saying this, but

the only reason I was kind of sticking up for chihuahua before was because he's my lover and I didn't feel like dying

. But I really think he's the most likely candidate for treacherous lover, so I'll gladly be a sacrifice.

Notice that part in bold? The one that completely explains why Fidelis would have a vested, nonscum interest in looking at someone other than Chi, who he was Lovers with?

Also, in what way was this--

This really strikes a bad chord to me. Since he was lazy and only barely read posts, he is obviously just going with who the majority of players agrees on lynching. He's literally bandwagoning, hoping for an easy kill, without really knowing the reason behind it.

VOTE: Shattered Viewpoint

caused by a lack of reading comprehension on Fidelis' part? This comes out of nowhere, and is your only substantial post before you hammer Chi and kill him and Fidelis both. I think the lack of comprehension is clearly on your side of the argument. Because if you had actually thought about it, or had thought about it and weren't scum, you'd have realized that Fidelis claiming to be the town Lover of the Treacherous Lover is possibly the dumbest idea ever. And here's why.

1) Town opinion was pretty balanced between Xite and Chi. If Fidelis was the TL, why wouldn't he go for Xite instead? It doesn't matter what Xite's alignment is, because pushing Chi by saying they are lovers would only reveal Fidelis' deceit when he flipped.
2) There was no need to. None of us, as far as I can recall, thought Chi was anyone's lover. Fidelis could have just kept defending Chi and gone after anyone else with no suspicions and without revealing they were lovers. Instead, he independently chose to reveal himself and go after his lover, which is pro-town.
3) You don't even use a current post for your rationale. You thought Fidelis was the TL because of a post he'd made saying Millar deserves to die without voting, a post he'd made four days prior at a very different stage in the game. At that time you accused him of not voting for Millar, implicitly called him scummy, and yet did not vote for him yourself. Which is bad enough except Fidelis HAD voted for Millar a long time ago, which was established very well shortly thereafter. So basically, the very little rationale you had for voting him didn't exist. Unless you're scum, as I believe you to be, in which you have all the rationale in the world. You can't have confirmed town running around, after all.

Anyone else still think Shattered Viewpoint is town?

[Switz]

@David:

vote: don_johnson

Reason to come once I find my glasses and don't have to have my head 2 inches from my laptop screen.

Where is this? I hope you've found your glasses since Wednesday.

And while I do agree with you somewhat on Enigma's lack of content, I don't think that's enough of a reason to vote him when we have Shattered still alive, who has done effectively as little as Enigma, but isn't a contender for Millar's Lover and did hammer for the wrong reasons on Day 1.

@Mallow:

I was personally waiting for Mallow to give us his thoughts on D1 before I started looking into the Xite thing again, but those of you who are bringing it up (Zero, Wacka, etc.) are right, we shouldn't forget about him. But since he wasn't replaced when Day started, I figured it was more productive to go after the other really scummy person who stood out to me.

Now that he's here though...

So your really gonna kill six people to find one scum?

Once again contradicting his vote for Chi...

I can see some of the points in this long Robo ISO, Mallow, but this one seems to have been twisted by you. I believe Robo was referring to the plan (promoted by either Xite or Millar or both) to kill all the Lovers one by one until we get the TL, which doesn't make sense. His position on that doesn't contradict his vote on Chi if he thought (correctly, as it turned out) that Chi was the TL himself.

And what are your thoughts on some of the other players in this game? Trying to pressure Robo is good normally, but I'm not sure it's enough for someone whose predecessor was almost on the chopping block.

@Shattered:

Are you going to respond to anything anyone has asked you ever? Or scumhunt? Or do more than post useless nonsense? Serious questions.

@yabba:

I'll go back and check on whether or not I was the first to classify the Xite|Millar|Chi thing as our only option after this. If I did, all I can say in my defense is that it might have been a side-effect of replacing in, and I just mentally categorized them together for convenience. I'll let you know though.

I'm curious as to why you are now opposed to a Shattered case, since you were trying to make one all the way back on page 7, and he's only gotten scummier since then. If you want one, though, I'll do what you suggested then and ISO him.

His first real content post is #11, where he votes Robo.
The next day in #12, he says he's voting Robo because he's tunneling Don.
Twelve hours later, in #13, he changes his mind and says he's also voting Robo because Robo is policy voting Chi. Robo was voting Chi for policy voting, which is sort of policy voting, I suppose. It's just ridiculous logic for SV to vote him then.
In #14, Shattered now thinks Chi is an idiot and Millar is a tool but provides no content otherwise.
In #15, which I've pointed out before, I believe, SV goes after Fidelis for not voting Millar (even though Fidelis already is voting Millar) and then votes Millar himself.
#16 is useless.
In #17, SV has now changed his mind entirely. He agrees with Robo, something he would not have done only a few posts prior, and follows him in unvoting Millar, although not without planting the seeds of a Millar+Robo scumbuddy team.
#18 is spent trying to get Xite to talk. Active lurking, mayhaps?
He totally 180's in #19/20 and decides to go after Xite for no posted reason.
#22 is the key post, where he hammers Chi to kill Fidelis. He goes back to his #15 and uses it as justification for his insane theory that Fidelis is a bluffing TL. Even though the very accusation itself was clearly established to be wrong because Fidelis had already been voting Millar. See my prior post for more details.
SV doesn't post anything useful then until #25, when he responds to Smashbro's accusation that he was trying to move attention away from Chi in his #13. He gives reasons why he thought Fidelis was scum, reasons which don't make sense in the wake of Fidelis claiming to be Chi's Lover, and then tries to brush the whole thing under the rug, promising to return with thoughts in a few days.
#26. Shattered returns, no thoughts.

TLDR: Shattered does nothing for the majority of Day 1. Then he follows the prevailing thought of the moment around and around, jumping from Robo to Millar to Xite and finally to Chi, hammering him and ending Day 1. Day 2, all he's done is try to defend himself, promise results, and not deliver. That count as a case?

[Switz]

And what are your thoughts on some of the other players in this game? Trying to pressure Robo is good normally, but I'm not sure it's enough for someone whose predecessor was almost on the chopping block.

You have any thoughts or are you just hoping we lynch Robo without asking any questions?

[Switz]

@yabba:

Post 478:

@all: What's more imperative, settling this logic debate, or hitting scum?

in other words: lynch from Xite/millar in the hopes that a liar is scum, or go off the board and hit [chihuahua, or whoever you suspect]? Frankly, I'd rather untangle this knot now instead of endgame and opt for the former. Maybe we conclude they're both Town. Will analyze more later.

Post 528:

Okay, so, regardless of who else I think is scummy—which will come shortly after this—I think our lynch today needs to be either Xite, Millar, or Chi. So let’s look at them separately, and consider the possibilities if we lynch them.

You were technically right in saying that I was the only one who specifically said that our lynch needed to be one of Xite, Millar, and Chi. But the three of them were the only ones being seriously considered anyways, and you yourself expressed the same sentiment I did--except with less committment.

Now I'm really curious as to why you're opposed to a Shattered case. I think I'm going to have to take a closer look at you shortly.

FoS: yabba

[Switz]

@Switz: I'll give you one thing, I do think that after a reread SV is a much more viably scummy person, and frankly he hasn't changed much. But when I focused in on Xite/millar, there was actually concrete logic, so I thought, with Xite and millar claiming Lovers. I hadn't banked on the fact that TWO people were trying to pull asinine Town gambits (millar claimed the wrong Lover). When you focused in on the trio, it was after the fact, so there wasn't a concrete logical reason to settle in on them. By asking that question, you focused all the attention on them. Sure, one scum was on there. I just thought the other two were mislynches being pushed. Hell, you haven't even mentioned Xite and millar as of recently, are they still scummy to you?

Xite was replaced by Mallow, who I've been questioning since he began posting. And yes, I think he is still scummy, both in the past as Xite and now as Mallow. But at the beginning of the day, without a replacement for Xite, SV was a much higher priority.

And Millar's scumminess has gone down for me, in reflection. There are lots of better scum candidates out there.

[Switz]

Hell f***ing yeah.

I'm sure there's more I could say about things since my last post, but I'll leave it for D3.

[Switz]

why enigma?

Yeah, I second that. I really don't get the constant vendetta, even if Enigma hasn't voted yet.

But more importantly:

Vote: Zajnet

You come into the game D1, promise a post with opinions, but then give us nothing but this and this and this. You push for Chi's lynch without any reasoning except gut reads and probability, and also throw a little suspicion on SV too.

You cite RL issues, and you did just replace in, so I suppose it's not that bad.

Except then D2 you drop this into the discussion:

If the scum shot Pitt because they were looking for millar's lover, why not just shoot millar?

With this one sentence, you make Millar look even scummier than the Day before, which is barely possible. Because the implication is: if Millar didn't die tonight, Millar must be scum. Which means if you're scum and Millar is telling the truth about his Lover, you're subtly pushing for the lynch of two of the Town's remaining Lovers.

But you're not content to stay subtle about it for long. Now that you've planted the hint, you wait for someone else (Muthaa) to restate your thesis and then repeat it, this time FoSing Millar--and, interestingly, Shattered Viewpoint, who I had just voted and who we would eventually lynch and reveal as scum.

He then turns on Don, saying that Don's actions during D1 amount to a "textbook bus of Chihuahua". It's a statement I might have been convinced to agree with, were it not for this insightful post by Robo I caught in my reread. In it, he says it's unlikely Don would be trying a D1 bus on Chi because he was the main aggressor. And I'm inclined to believe him; if we look back at D1, Don is the 2nd person to vote Chihuahua, right after my predecessor youngminii, and he stays with Chi until the Xite/Millar situation hits critical mass. However, after Millar and Xite both claim, he's right back on Chi. If Don was scum, he would have jumped off the Chi wagon sooner and probably not jumped back on--assuming he'd even think it was a good idea to lead the charge against the Treacherous Lover in the first place.

In his next post, he's secure enough to "Confirm Vote" Don. And then in this post he does a complete 180 and piggybacks onto my Shattered Viewpoint case.

And that's pretty much his contribution to the game so far. Oh, there's some active lurking/wagon pushing here and some making promises he doesn't keep there, but all in all the above is the extent of his "contribution" to this game.

So, in summary for all you TLDRers:

D1, Zajnet doesn't make real posts and buses Chi and SV.
D2, he opens by casting massive suspicion on Millar's survival w/o actually voting.
He then tries to make Don look scum by accusing him of busing Chi on D1.
But then decides my SV wagon is a better bet and 180s.
All his remaining posts consist of active lurking.
Zajnet is scum.

[Switz]

So...why are we lagging and why aren't we lynching Zajnet?

And while Wacka vaguely makes sense as a possible scum--I haven't ISOed him yet--Muthaa's minimal posting doesn't seem any worse than that of other offenders, like Sanxion or smashbro_SSS.

[Switz]

So...why are we lagging and why aren't we lynching Zajnet?

And while Wacka vaguely makes sense as a possible scum--I haven't ISOed him yet--Muthaa's minimal posting doesn't seem any worse than that of other offenders, like Sanxion or smashbro_SSS.

Why Zajnet?

See previous post. In summary: Zajnet, like a lot of players, hasn't done much all game. But what he has done is active lurk, throw a ton of suspicion at Millar, who claimed to be one of the Lovers, without actually voting him, tries to make Don look scummy for "bussing" Chi, and then just hops on the SV lynch as soon as he realizes Millar's not going anywhere D2.

[Switz]

So by mallow's logic I'm scum as well.

VOTE: mallowgeno

(inb4 lurker vote hopping...)

We have room to spare since we've hit scum twice. If mallow flips town, don will be my #1 suspect.

Bandwagoning again. And trying to set up tomorrow's lynch already.

Look, Mallow is playing badly regardless of his alignment. But I no longer believe he's scum. There's no good reason why scum would be going after Robo so hard, and there's really no bad reason either. I don't understand why Mallow has an insatiable desire to go after Robo to the absolute exclusion of any other option, but I don't think he's scum.

If we have room to spare as Zajnet himself says, why are we wasting our time on Mallow, who has no credibility and can't manipulate town nearly as effectively as the scum who remain(s) can?

[Switz]

I don't understand why Mallow has an insatiable desire to go after Robo to the absolute exclusion of any other option, but I don't think he's scum.

My replacee believed he was scum and so do I.

Okay, well if we assume you and Xite are town, then your replacement had an evil mad scientist scheme in which he lied to the town in some bizarre attempt to get Millar lynched. So I'm not sure following his guidance is your best move here.

And are you really trying to get through this game without having to do any independent scumhunting of your own? I mean really. Robo literally cannot be the only scum left in this game, and you don't even have any good evidence to support your accusations that he's scum in the first place.

[Switz]

Wow. Literally half this game is on V/LA or completely AWOL. At this point we're looking at having deadline problems.

And for the record, I agree with the general conclusions drawn by SSS's math, but I'm not sure if tomorrow is the Day Lovers should claim. We have 14 people left, two of which are scum and four of which are Lovers. So if we lynch town today and lose town overnight, we're down to 6 town, 4 lovers, and 2 scum. Even if scum would get one of the pairs overnight, we'd be at 5 town, 2 Lovers, and 2 scum, which is a 7:2 ratio and still pretty manageable, I believe. They'd probably want to claim then though, although I'm not sure on that at the moment.

Of course, all of this is contingent on us not getting scum, which I personally don't think is going to be a problem today unless we can't get enough people together for a lynch.

[Switz]

A few points:
Lover claims are null because you are making the assumption that lover's will be killed when they claim. Assumptions are bad ok? Scum wouldn't go for lovers right at this instance because lover's are a much more dangerous commodity as the game approaches LYLO. I'm sure everyone who is agreeing with SSS would have at least made a quick effort to think outside of the box rather than just agreeing with the maths.
So @ all those people (SSS, Switz, Mallow) pushing for lover claims, no it's bad for town, either think the problem through or stop trying to disguise your scummy agenda.

In what way was my last post a push for lover claims? I specifically pointed out that lovers should claim later than SSS suggested and only if we don't catch scum today or tomorrow. Obviously if it's not in their best interest, Lovers shouldn't spontaneously claim, but at a certain point the ratio of town to scum is going to make it in the town's best interest.

[Switz]

Goddammit, Enigma, stop being snarky and actually contribute. At least Zajnet's not even bothering to not defend himself.

Unvote; Vote: Enigma

[Switz]

Oh. Well, I guess that would make sense. I'm not Millar's Lover, so unless Muthaa counterclaims,

Unvote; Vote: Zajnet

.

Since you're now in significantly more danger of NKing, any chance you could give us your thoughts on who's scummy?

[Switz]

I'm actually not sure...

You have got to be kidding me.

Sandman, I might be on board for a D4 Robo lynch, but for the sake of the deadline, lets get Zajnet off the table.

That goes for everyone, actually, since we need practically every active player to vote the same to lynch someone today.

[Switz]

Well, I posted a pretty extensive case against you about 5 pages ago, Zaj. I can understand you forgetting though, since it was at the beginning of the Day, 3 weeks ago.

And yeah, I can probably get behind a mallow lynch on D4, with that attempted hammer there.

[Switz]

I really don't understand why we're all willing to just let Zajnet go and lynch Robo just because Zajnet claimed VT, but I'm done arguing for the Day.

Vote: Robo

If he turns up town at least we'll have a confirmed townie to look back on.

[Switz]

Don, I'm going to murder you later.

Unvote; Vote: Zajnet

[Switz]

Enigma: We have 15 hours until deadline. No majority = no lynch = unacceptable.

We don't have time to make cases. If you want to contribute more, then post your reads of the game's other players, in case scum decides to knock you and Millar out tonight--although I can't imagine why they would, it's not like the two of you have been particularly inspirational toDay.

[Switz]

lol what is the required lynch #?

Also, if everyone else is going to get away with "Seems ok" as logic for casting votes, I might as well join in

Vote: Robo

Why the hell not?

So you've been lurking most of the game, have no idea how many votes it'll take to lynch, and you're just going to vote Robo because everyone else is going to get away with it.

I know there's a better case to be made against you, which I will get to soon, but this is enough of a starter for me.

Vote: Wacka Alpaca

[Switz]

Okay, wait, stop stop stop.

Unvote

Let's think about this. We're about to quicklynch Wacka, who is so fed up with the slow pace of this game that he is (childishly) replacing out. That doesn't read like scum. I feel like scum would threaten to replace out but not actually go through with it, or actually take the time to set up an argument. Maybe it's WIFOM and maybe it's counter to Wacka's meta, but it's enough to worry me.

We have 3 full days to look back on, with 2 confirmed scum and 5 confirmed townies to look at during that time. Right now, our ratio of town to scum is 10:2. Yes, we've had a bad few Days, but we have the advantage still unless we give it up by pushing lynches at breakneck speed.

So, let's do this right. Let's post cases, make arguments, and figure out what our best options are for toDay.

First off, my thoughts on the Day so far. It's only been a page since Night ended and we made it all the way up to L-2 on one of this game's players without anyone even posting a full case. I'll take part of the blame for this, since I jumped on Wacka without gathering any hard facts, but I think there might be scum involved too. Here are the players who voted Wacka just now, with their reasons.

Switz - Voting Robo without giving reasons or being aware of what was going on
Robo - No reason
Muthaa - Wagon growing, attempts to confuse the doc on D2(?)
David - Wacka's reaction to his votes
Enigma - Wacka's reaction = Appeal to Emotion

Of these four (other than me, obv), the scummiest is Robo. Pair that with this comment (bold mine):

Listen, this game has been horrible, we were plain lucky with the first two scum being lynched. We all really gave up on this. Lets just finish this up instead of constantly discussing nothing and just lurking.

I don't care who is killed, lets just kill

someone

.

And this one, in which he decides to complain without doing anything about the problem:

I hate how instead of having trouble finding scum because of all pro town players we are having trouble finding scum because everybody who is living is scummy so we don't know who to kill. We had this game in the bag. Day Two and two scum down.

Now this game is falling apart.

Its so Epicfail.

Now, in the interest of covering our bases, let's go back and see if there's a case on Robo throughout the game, and not just make a kneejerk reaction based on what we think at the moment.

HoS: Robo

[Switz]

Sorry, guys, I'm going to be V/LA until probably about Wednesday. There's a chance I'll be able to pop on MS to keep track of the game but probably not.

Glad to see we have replacements though.