Open 231: My Name is Earl (Game Over)

[Rhinox]

hello all. replacing in and need to get caught up. Just stopping by to say hello and I'm starting to read up.

[Rhinox]

@Adrien; / replacement
Have you come any closer to making your mind up?

Lol how the hell is a replacement even supposed to attempt to answer this?

Oh noes...
Rhinox, are you a jester again?

When was I ever a jester?

Haha
I think Confid is the only person here who actually knows my meta

Not anymore . You seem to have gotten incompetent townie down to a science since I've last seen you.

What if Rhinox lurks too?

*lurks*




.....




jk

Also, not liking how four people converged on Adrien (

XScorpion

, nocase, Budja, AV) within the same time frame. Smells a little fishy.

I agree with this, that it is a bit odd that such a quick little wagon forms on a player AFTER he announced replacing out. By process of elimination, I would wager on scum-AV over the other 3.

hello all. replacing in and need to get caught up. Just stopping by to say hello and I'm starting to read up.

Oh hai.

So this game is like . . . . retro reunion for me.

'sup Nadroj - wasn't I an IC in your newbie game? I didn't 'get' this post until after reading.


I agree with a beefster lynch.

vote: beefster

thinking, d3x is scum #2.

QED town, glad I could stop by.

[Rhinox]

When was I ever a jester?

Paris mafia II. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 52&t=13100

Oh haha... yeah forgot about that. But we weren't really jesters, we were still an informed minority scum team.

The fact that this game is filled to the brim with people who don't actually explain votes on people is especially annoying. I'm not sure how many of the culprits are scum and how many are just failtown (inb4ImCalledAHypocrite), so all I can do is vote and hope I hit the right one.

Shouldn't this tell you that "not explaining votes" is not a reliable scum tell in this game? maybe you should try scumhunting a different way.

Oh, Rhinox, fancy giving your reasons why you agree with a Beefster lynch, seeing as you've put him at L-1?

Oh that was L-1? sweet, someone hammer

(Forgots this was a 9-player game, and not 12)

I guess I missed my opportunity then to tell beefy to "claim or die", but what I would really mean anyways is "claim, then die" or "don't claim and still die", either way...

Anyways, I just agree with the points brought up against him that are scattered throughout the thread. I'm not going to go find them again, quote them, or put them in my own words, or whatever. They're in the thread. Basic themes of hypocrisy and inconsistencies, explained with backpedaling. I also feel confident in quite a few town reads, and by process of elim, beefy is scummiest of those few I don't have town reads on. If I'm wrong and beefy flips town, you can grill me about my reasons or lack of tomorrow I guess.

[Rhinox]

holy shit.

Over the top reaction to claim is noted.

Maybe try to say what you think about the claim or whether or not you believe it or something other than "act shocked and wait until someone makes up my mind for me."

I claim cop.

I'm still waiting for nocase to respond to my defense. Seeing how he hasn't replied for a over a day, something fishy is going on here.

Did you attempt any breadcrumbs anywhere? Have you been playing any differently in the game up until now being a cop than you would have if you got a VT role?

[Rhinox]

{d3x, AurousVox, XScorpion} - 3 players not voting beefy

{TheButtonmen, nocase, Budja} - 3 players voting beefy

{ConfidAnon} - Players that are town.

Gut tells me that d3x is scum, but I need to reread everyone and pay special attention to interactions with beefy to be sure.

[Rhinox]

@ConfidAnon and Rhinox: Why do you not think I'm scum with Beefster?

Well, I haven't completely ruled you out yet. There are some compelling points linking you and Beefster.

Cathart/buttonman: I'd like to see more from buttonman in general, but cathart was voting beefy early, and never unvoted. Leaning Town.

Budja: I agree with his current reads, for the most part. Had a gut town read on him when I replaced in. Was strongly for a beefy lynch all D1 - switched to adrienC to avoid stagnation, switched right back after I replaced in. Asked for a hammer before claim - town points. Leaning Town on Budja.

nocase: gut town read upon me replacing in. Agree with budja about him reviving the beefy wagon, plus Beefster vs. nocase (circa post #295) does not feel like scum vs. scum mutual bussing/distancing. Leaning Town.

ConfidAnon: 100% town. There is no scum setup where the scum inherintly know whether a cop exists. You don't hammer your fake claiming scum partner without waiting for a CC. No CC means your scum partner lives. If you get a CC, you rejoice because you outed the cop. Quickly hammering was the worst thing that could have happened for the remaining scum.

d3x: voted and unvoted beefy in the first half of day 1. Switched focus elsewhere, then was called out for forgetting about beefy. From that point on, was pretty much "ok with either beefy or xscorp lynch", but vote and conversation always remained on XS. Potential scum for early distancing, and trying to lead a competing wagon while being "ok with a beefy lynch".

AV: Early on, sided with beefster over budja when they had cases on each other. (iso 9, 14). Iso 21: wishy-washy about beefy - "I didn't get why people found beefy scummy, I had a neutral vibe" followed by "then I found this, Major FOS". Didn't vote beefy b/c he didn't want to put him at L-1. Iso 24: top suspect is now beefy, voted beefy to put him at L-2 after d3x unvoted. Iso: 33 switched vote to Xscorp. Iso 37: more wishywashy-ness on beefster - "I think his last post was ok/I'm still wondering if there's a XS/Beefy scum team". Questioned me about putting beefy at L-1 (iso46). Iso 49: ok with hammering, wanted to hear claim first. Iso 50: Doesn't believe claim. Glad he waited to hammer. Wonder's if he's scum looking for a CC.

Potential scum for being wishy-washy towards beefy on more than 1 occasion. Comments before lynch lead me to believe he could be the scum encouraging a CC: OK with hammering but wanted to hear claim, didn't believe claim but didn't hammer or threaten to hammer or didn't reaffirm whether he would still be willing to hammer. Instead, fencesitting: might be the real cop/might be scum fishing for a CC.

XS: Early comments about beefster potentially coaching and thinking its scummy, but not enought to vote beefy because it was the RVS. Brings up meta reasons for not lynching beefy (iso 26), but claims its not his responsibility to defend others (iso30). Doesn't care if beefy lives or dies because no one agrees with what he's saying (iso42). A few posts follow where Xscorp claims to not have a read on beefy. Iso50: offers to lynch beefy today if Xite can be lynched tomorrow. iso51: Hasn't been paying attention to beefy because its not his job to do all the town's scumhunting. Claim reaction: "Holy shit", followed by believing him and questioning me if I still thought we should lynch him. Post hammer: No CC right away, wouldn't be necessary until LyLo.

XS could go either way. On one hand, we have lots of content that could be identified as attempted distancing - the no-read stuff, the meta defense, the early accusation. On the other hand, offering to help lynch beefy first if he can lynch xite tomorrow seems more town than if he'd have offered the other way around. His reaction to beefy's claim doesn't exactly scream townie to me, but it doesn't say scum either. I believe I called him out on his first reaction correctly here. He did then give a concrete response that he believed the claim. His response after the hammer about waiting for a CC would seem town, but its null because it happened after the hammer. If he'd have made iso86 before the hammer such as instead of iso 85, I wouldn't even have to question XS's allignment, I'd strongly believe him to be town. But I also agree with budja that XS has seemed to try to stay in the spotlight and remain the center of attention, which doesn't seem scummy. That is why XS is only my 3rd choice for scum.

Beefster iso:

RVS vote: AdrienC (Me)
First Serious vote: Budja (iso3)
Questions Col.Cathart for reasons for voting him (iso 5)
Iso6: Claims meta on XS, but that its invalid since the game is in progress. Continues attack on budja/supports XS accusations of budja. FoS's Xite for her suggestion to massclaim/claim earls.
Iso7: constinues to question budja.
Iso8: Calls XS wonky, but affirms he has seen wonky VT's. Fos on d3x.
Iso10: Calls AdrienC scummy for unvoting him. Sticks to Budja vote because budja is hiding something.
Iso11: switches vote to nocase with a case, fos's Xscorp claims his play is going from wonky to scummy (no reasoning)
Iso12: Post summary, still doesn't like nocase or budja, but agree's with nocase points against Xscorp.
Iso13: Big case against nocase
Iso14: Confirm vote nocase for hypocrisy
Iso15: Asks budja for reasons why budja is voting him.

(1) Budja and nocase are definitely not beefy's scum partner.
(2) Players beefy voted at some point in the game: AdrienC(Rhinox), Budja, nocase
Players beefy FoS'd or called scummy: Xite(ConfidAnon), d3x, xscorp, AdrienC
Players questioned in a negative light, but not fos'd or voted: Cathart/buttonman
Players completely ignored: AV

Final thoughts: I think its saying something that Beefy voted, suspected, or questioned everyone in the game at least once, accept for AV. That is noteable because beefy was always demanding reasons or responded whenever someone suspected him or voted him, and beefy didn't even respond at all when AV called him his top suspect and voted. I think that points to a solid connection between the 2, and AV is scum #2. d3x and xscorp remain possibilities for receiving FoS's but never votes. Beefy's iso doesn't change my view of buttonman - cathart wasn't very active most of the day, and neither was buttonman after he replaced in. I suspect had cathart been more active, he would have been suspected or voted by beefy, rather than just questioned once and forgotten about. So I'm still leaning town on button. Budja and Nocase move into the definitely town category right behind Confinadroj.

vote: AurorusVox

Very confident about this.

[Rhinox]

I sided with Beefster because he actually had a case, whereas Budja just voted without reasons.

By the specific posts I pointed out (iso 9, 14), budja had already given reasons for voting beefy.

I didn't want to put him at L-1 because I was going to be V/LA. Would you prefer I had put him at hammer distance and then disappeared for a few days?

Why is it any better to put him at L-2 before going on V/LA vs. L-1? he could be hammered either way while you're gone.

Rhinox wrote:
Iso: 33 switched vote to Xscorp. Iso 37: more wishywashy-ness on beefster - "I think his last post was ok/I'm still wondering if there's a XS/Beefy scum team". Questioned me about putting beefy at L-1 (iso46).


I questioned your L-1 because you hadn't supplied any reasons. L-1 votes should have at least some evidence to them.

The reason I gave was that I agreed with the points brought up against him. Funny how you didn't acknowledge this point of fencesitting on beefy while you were so quick to refute it earlier in the post.

In my experience, it's best to let the L-1 claim. And in my experience it's best to at least give the person in question a chance to back their claim up - i.e., point to breadcrumbing and so on. I am still glad that I didn't hammer him straight away, because if he had been cop, that would have been a stupid move to make. I would have hammered, and would have had the chance to prove that, but after Beefster had had a chance to defend himself.

Do you disagree that waiting for a claim, or letting the claim share his reasons, is what should have happened?

I don't disagree with what you said here, but I disagree with how you went about it when beefy was being lynched. You were fencesitting, and I don't think you would have hammered if there was no CC.

=================================================

was called out for forgetting about beefy. From that point on, was pretty much "ok with either beefy or xscorp lynch"

Can you point out where this happened? Because I'm pretty sure you're making things up to make me look bad.

I was referring to what you said in iso-11: "Well therein lies the difference. I Voted Beefy, I'm building a case on you. As big of a difference between these as there is between AntiTown and scummy behaviors. But don't worry, I haven't forgotten him..."

I maybe took too many liberties paraphrasing than I originally thought. XS pointed out that you voted beefy but never made a case, but you were making a case on XS. You responded that you haven't forgotten about beefy. You're right, I can't point out where someone specifically said "you're forgetting about beefy", but my interpretation is that XS pointed out that you didn't give beefy as much attention as you're giving him and your response was that you didn't forget about beefy and then you proceed to ask him a question and be ok with his lynch the rest of the day but never enough to prefer him over XS.

===================================================

Rhinox, Budja, ConfidAnon -

None of you have made any responses to my defence against Rhinox's points. Anyone fancy saying something about that or do you just want to lynch me without even reading my posts?

Well its unlikely my opinion is going to change regardless of what you say at this point. I am unwilling to support any lynch other than AV, d3x, or scorp today, and I rank the lynches in the order budja gave earlier: AV > d3x >>> scorp

====================================================

@AV and d3x both: Anyone you think is town?

[Rhinox]

I came into this day willing to lynch Aurorus or d3x.

I

[may be]

willing to compromise on d3x, but not scorpian.

But first, nocase, can you explain why d3x is a good lynch and why AV is town?

AV, I haven't ignored your post to me, but I don't have time to respond to it at this moment. Probably by later this afternoon.

[Rhinox]

well,

i thought he was cop

. now that the doc can't tell us who he saved and we have no clears can we please get on with a semi-intelligent lynch? thanks in advance.

Me too, and I assumed he was the protected kill.

Actually though, Confid did give us some clues about who he did or did not protect. For example, he starts D2 firing a vote at nocase. Nocase was not the protected kill. Obviously, AV, d3x, or xscorp were not protected either. We know Confid was not protected. That leaves me, Budja, or don_buttonman as the potential protected N1 kill. Nothing in Confid's posts makes me think either budja or don_button were protected, so thats all I can conclude.

Nonetheless, I believe the scum is in a group of d3x or xscorp.

I think the plan for today is either mass claim or no lynch.

Reason for no lynch: can increase lynch odds. 6 players and 1 scum means we get 2 lynches the rest of the game. 1/6 at hitting scum today. If we're wrong, four alive tomorrow usually means no-lynching to get 1/3 odds for lylo. No lynch today eliminates a player by nk to give us 1/5 odds tomorrow, and 1/3 odds for lylo.

If we no lynch, we should not mass claim for tomorrow. I would expect the nk after a no-lynch to be either myself or budja, or maybe even nocase. Since my lynch choice for today will not be random and I do not currently expect budja or nocase to move into a potential lynch consideration by the end of the game, I do not feel a no lynch will increase the odds of lynching scum from my POV. But, maybe others would feel like their odds of lynching scum would increase if the player pool became smaller, which is the only reason I brought this up - the potential to clear someone. I just don't expect that the player who gets cleared will help me to find the scum.

That being said, I'm with budja - my vote is for mass claim, and my preferred order is both of d3x and xscorp in any order, followed by don, nocase, and budja in any order, with myself last. If others demand it, I'm willing to claim any time after d3x and xscorp.

[Rhinox]

EBWOP: "If we no lynch, we should not mass claim for tomorrow." should have been, "we should save massclaim for tomorrow" or "we should not massclaim until tomorrow" - mindmeld of two ways of saying the same thing ended up saying something completely different o_O

[Rhinox]

If there are any other earls or a cop, now would be the time to claim. Otherwise, d_j = confirmed town.

My name is vanilla townie.

[Rhinox]

Xscorp: now that don_john is confirmed town, who's your next suspect?

d3x: how confident are you that XS is scum?

The answers to these 2 questions will help me decide which of you 2 I'm going to vote today.

[Rhinox]

vote: d3x

no sense in drawing this out any longer.

[Rhinox]

w00t! go town!

lol@Xscorp. so who did you really think was scum if not d3x?

I agree with a beefster lynch.
vote: beefster

thinking, d3x is scum #2.

QED town, glad I could stop by.

lol @ my first content post in the game. Never been dead right with all my gut reads before. This is why there was no kill N1 (right?), but I didn't put it together until Confid flipped doc. Until then, I thought we had cop+doc, with confid as the cop and was protected. I just didn't wanna be like "guyz I totally know I was protected so I'm like confirmed town nowz!". That, and no way is confid going to so obviously sheep off of me like he did on D2 unless he is really trying to buddy up to me, or knows I'm town.

My only regret is that I didn't stick with my gut read on D2 - town missed the chance for a rare flawless victory

No game prods is something to be proud of though!