Open 241: Emotional Breakdown! (Over)

[don_johnson]

/confirm

v/la 6-13. Will post from phone.

[don_johnson]

Prox avoidance. Forgot about this one. Catch up when I hav time.

[don_johnson]

If there is a cc then it only requires one. We cud, however, let the masons make up their own minds. If myst is scum, then he's caught. The masons wud be better off trying to hunt his partners first. Breadcrumbs are an amazing tool. More wen I'm not on my phone.

[don_johnson]

I done been prodded. Who are we lynching? I would prefer to not have to read up.

[don_johnson]

usually, in day one of a madfia game, two players take center stage with an extremely boring, dumb, and drawn out argument. occassionally, one of these two players is scum, but more often than not, both players are town. (i haven't done the research, but i've been playing long enough to have this general impression.) also, scum will generally latch on to a wagon created on one of the players with poor reasoning. in theory, neither of these two players should be lynched on day one. what we should do is find out who has the crappiest vote on the leading wagon now and lynch

them

. then you get night actions and draw more conclusions etc. etc.

..!.. that's me giving you all the middle finger. i've been on vacation and posting from my phone. i am not replacing out. stop asking. and yes, my post was serious. day 1 does not need everyone to participate and scumhunt. the objective is to pick someone to lynch and if you did the research(which i haven't, but again i've been playing long enough to get a general feel) you would find that day 1 lynches on page 32 are often just as effective as a random lynch in hitting scum. the only benefit is the discussion which can later be analyzed etc. etc. forthwith, 32 pages is too long. 10-15 pages a day will suffice. active lurkers without excuses should be pressured, and only lynched if necessary. lurkers with excuses should be accepted as town until one has reason not to think so.

so yeah. i'm going to reread and find the crappiest vote on the lead wagon and most likely vote that person. or i may not. you'll just have to wait.

[don_johnson]

at page 6. kaiverann, andrew, and smashbros all look the scummiest. and not necessarily in that order. agar is a distant fourth here, but his posts seem to waffle between scummy and townie.

[don_johnson]

page 8. i've seen enough.

vote: kaiveran

[don_johnson]

i'll place andrew at number two. smashbro three. andrews posts are slim and he seems to be fishing for info.

[don_johnson]

its not logic, its theory. i can't in good consciense follow the theory if the thread looks otherwise. i agree with much of what confid states in his posting, but i am not willing to give kai a "pass" on meta. i can try and flesh this out a bit for you. i'll iso him and pick out the specific quotes which rub me the wrong way, but i don't like doing that sometimes because it can remove context. but whatever.

[don_johnson]

so anyway:

his entry into the game is "i don't see anything suspicious." so i'll vote a lurker for pressure. its kind of a cop out.

two days later myst and xite are his "top two".

then he asks for a nopoint prod and drops a serious vote on xite.

his iso 5 is worst for me as he seems to be planting the false belief that if Myst was not a mason, that it would need all 3 masons to counterclaim in order to get him lynched. this is logically flawed. if all 3 masons counterclaim for one scum then two out of the three masons would most likely be dead come morning, decimating towns advantage in the game. if myst isn't mason, then masons can wait just as well. myst is dead tonight regardless of his alignment. no need to plan counterclaims. its kind of a useless discussion in and of itself. in fact. kai's entire contribution to this thread reads like fluff as attacks the easiest target available.

in iso 6 he awards credit to andrew for "content". i don't remember any "content" from andrew.

andrews iso is pretty bad as well. he doesn't have many posts longer than two or three sentences and seems to ask questions just for the sake of asking questions.

1) @mysteriou why did u claim so early?

2) who else do you think slipped mysteriou?

3) im his buddy?

4) how is my grammer bad?

5) ur suspocious of an un cc-ed mason>?

6) ur saying hes mason catchs xite then takes pressure of xite? Wtf?

7) hi me what?

question 1 was answered by mysterio at the time of the claim. question 2 reads like scum fishing for more scum reads from someone else. the rest are in response to other players, but carry no significance to the game. i'd like to know what "content" from andrew94 Kai deems worthy of credit.

[don_johnson]

mysterio: its day one. i think its way more of a town trait to bandwagon with little reason and way more of a scum trait to build a completely crappy case against someone(especially when that someone is one of the two players involved in the obligatory day 1 argument thatr always occurs.) so no. it does not contradict my logic for me to be suspicious of the player who i think has a terribly "easily explained" vote on the leading bandwagon.

[don_johnson]

i'm not itching for an andrew wagon. i see what you are trying to say. i'd like the kai lynch. i'm also not going to stand in the way of the xite lynch. he very well may be scum, i just think we're better off analyzing the wagon first. this game didn't really start any serious discussion until page 4, so lynching now is actually like lynching at page 5. that's damn quick, and for xite to be run up that quick i am way more suspicious of the wagon than of the player.

[don_johnson]

and now you're fence-sitting.
How about a vote?

how bout you learn to read?

[don_johnson]

kai said: andrew94: Not very active, but you stand out from the lurker collection for posting actual content: you didn't follow any one person, and looked ahead of the current conflict. Minimal suspicion; you look like an average townie.

this was at that time, where everyone was just bvandwagoning without any reason or lurking - like u

that was his LAST post

my things are 2-3 swentencces long cos i dunno how to chain quote so i make 2 or 3 posts every time.
you, don are the lurker just came back from the dead so you cant say i dont post actual content

a) v/la is different from lurking. i was v/la.

b) i don't really care how you feel. you haven't posted "content". i'd like kai to adress the discrepancy. i'd like him to explain what he thought was "content".

[don_johnson]

please saty on course people. kai is the lynch today. andrew can be dealt with tomorrow if he is still alive. remember, there's going to be two nightkills most likely...

[don_johnson]

lynchy lynchy lynchy. come on now folks, don't be fooled by the long posts. if you read them you will see they are weak.

"andrew posted content"

"oh. now that someone has called me on it i realize i was wrong, even though had i really been paying attention i would have noticed before i'd opened my big scummy mouth."

"let's talk about other stuff."

[don_johnson]

xite's too easy.

remember: two nightkills. scum teams don't win together. if we get it wrong, scum can get it right, or vice versa, or we can get it right

and

scum can get it right.

[don_johnson]

are you saying i shouuld hammer? cause there is no other clear lynch candidate and this game is dead and the mod has abandoned us...

[don_johnson]

deal.

unvote, vote: xite

[don_johnson]

i need to reread, but i see no reason not to start with a

vote: kai

mysterio: not sure what you are talking about. my theory of suspicion was based around the "obligatory day 1 argument" that occurs in every game. i clearly stated that said argument can include scum. i simply adhered to the theory that the day 1 wagon is usually scummy, and so regardless of the alignment of players involved in the argument, those on the wagon should be considered for suspicion. so i chose to scumhunt on the lead wagon. noone seemed to agree with me(or at least not enough to create a counter wagon), so i hammered. whats the disconnect?

[don_johnson]

Mysterio: you seem to have made up your mind already. all townie wagons are rather rare, in essence, all wagons are pushed by scum. that includes scum wagons.

usually, in day one of a madfia game, two players take center stage with an extremely boring, dumb, and drawn out argument.

occassionally, one of these two players is scum

, but more often than not, both players are town. (i haven't done the research, but i've been playing long enough to have this general impression.) also, scum will generally latch on to a wagon created on one of the players with poor reasoning. in theory, neither of these two players should be lynched on day one. what we should do is find out who has the crappiest vote on the leading wagon now and lynch them. then you get night actions and draw more conclusions etc. etc.

i clearly accepted this possibility.

i see what you are trying to say. i'd like the kai lynch. i'm also not going to stand in the way of the xite lynch. he very well may be scum, i just think we're better off analyzing the wagon first. this game didn't really start any serious discussion until page 4, so lynching now is actually like lynching at page 5. that's damn quick, and for xite to be run up that quick i am way more suspicious of the wagon than of the player.

^^ at no point do i state that xite is townie, i simply point to my personal preference to hunt the wagon regardless of alignment.

after building the case on kai i made three specific posts asking for his lynch. i avoided andrew(who was second on my list) for reasons i'll keep under my hat for now. it was either hammer or lurk. i chose the proactive choice.

i understand if you want to question me, but if your mind is made up then you're leaving me in a crappy position. we have two flips. one from each scum team. that is good as it means we can now analyze and look for connections. if you think i'm scum(hell if you think anyone is scum) then piece it together. who would you think my partner is and why? what purpose would my actions serve if i was xite's buddy? what purpose would they serve if i was partnered with Agar?

obviously, these questions now apply to all suspects. if you have a question just ask, if not, i have no problem posting more analysis when i get the chance.

[don_johnson]

Sorry guys, but I disagree. U r all attributing alignments where I never did. I didn't say the wagon was scum. I applied a theory. The theory being that a day 1 wagon on one of two players involved in the " obligatory day 1 Argument wud contain scum. The alignment of the wagonee is irrelevant to this theory. Also. None of u seem to want to give me an opportunity to speak. A quick wagon helps only scum. So please tell me who u think I'm paired with Andrews explain how my actions benefit my scum team.

[don_johnson]

Agar was on the wagon. That means my theory was correct. If ur going to speedlynch me then u guys r just being dumb. I was on vacation for almost the entire first day. I actually have time to contribute and ur not going to let me. If ur so sure I'm scum then it really wouldn't hurt to let me hav some time to release and post some final thoughts.

I repeat. Agar was on the wagon. That makes my theory correct. Xite was not partners with Agar. Thus a day 1 wagon proves to contain scum regardless of the wagonees alignment.

Shotty: please explain urself better. I haven't contradicted myself at all. I proposed a theory. I used it to sccumhunt. When it generated zero interest, I hammered the wagon of a player who was well on his way to being lynched before I even started participating. A player who, according to the mechanics of my own theory, had an outside chance of being scum.

[don_johnson]

Confid: what changed between 264 and 270?

[don_johnson]

Also confid, I never said the bandwagon was scummy. My theory was that the day 1 wagon contains scum regardless of the lynchees alignment. Let's stop misrepresenting what I have been arguing. Like I said: a lynch wagon with zero scum on it is rare. The term " scummy bandwagon" is a bit redundant. More tonight when I get home. I'll give u a full rereAD tonight.

[don_johnson]

sorry, change "day 1 wagon" with "wagon".

i understand the suspicion on me. i'm just asking for time to present my case.

also, if you think i'm scum, then that would mean that there were at least two scum on yesterday's bandwagon. which only further proves that my theory is a really good one. now, you are incorrect in your assumption, but even still, Agar's presence on the wagon validates my theory. Agar did not have any way of knowing xites alignment. so Agar was pushing the lynch regardless. which is exactly the theory i laid out. now, if you think i am Agar's partner, then you could say that i made the shit up because i knew scum was, in fact, on the wagon, and that i knew this regardless of the lynchees alignment. the interesting part here is that you opened the voting today attributing the alignment of "werewolf" to Andrew, which would mean that you think i am xite's partner. in which case, whether you are correct or incorrect in that assumption, my theory still stands.

so please. case on Andrew anytime you're ready.

anyway. i am home. i'm crackin a beer and i will be posting my insight.

[don_johnson]

yeah. so anyway, i think i'm sticking with my kai vote.

Whether Mysterio is Town or Scum, it would not be reasonable for scum to counterclaim. In fact, it might not make sense for Mysterio to be scum at all. As pointed out before, if the 3 real masons all counterclaim, that means that we've got Mysterio pinned as scum.

^^ please note the hypnotic subconscious suggestiveness here reinforcing the entirely false theory that all three masons would need to counterclaim in order to trap mysterio. this reads to me much like Agar's posts, which if you go back through them, mention multiple scum teams a number of times and also try to cast doubt on the claim through whatever means are available.

he ends this post with an FoS on xite. sorry, but why is he focused on the then either/or fallacy of having to choose a side in the day 1 argument. seriously, he brings nothing new to the table, just weighs his options and goes after xite. but wait. he doesn't vote. he uses a lame ass FoS.

this is in contrast to nopoint's simple vote. noppoint, we now know, is town. he shows no fear of the xite bandwagon.

soon after, Agar moves to the xite wagon. he claims that Kai's posting is good enough.

in 138 xite points out the fence sitting of kai and votes him. one of the best ways for scum to throw town off their scent is to actually scumhunt. and scum know who the scum are, so they generally can get their votes in the right place.

in 140, Agar seems to take issue with kai. which is odd, because Agar recently stated that Kai's posts were satisfactory. seems like Agar is trying to have it both ways with Kai.

andrew kind of jumps on the kai wagon. theres no real votes on it, but it seems to be the public sentiment on page 6.

post 152. andrew94 suggests we look at the wagon NOW. similar to my later theory.

mysterio says it himself here:

Anyone pushing for my partners to claim without me being counterclaimed either isn't thinking things through or is rolefishing.

at this point in time those players are xite, agar, and kai. two of those three are now confirmed scum.

CA picks out Agar as the scum on xites wagon.

Agar(scum) thinks Andrew is xites buddy.

a2rude and super smash are doing us no favors.

198, Agar scumhunting? could be useful.

according to 199, if confid is scum, he's werewolf. but i don't see his interaction with Agar as teamates.

At the very least, Kai has made numerous posts defending his vote on Xite. Meanwhile, you have Shotty and Nopoint who have given little to no reason for their votes.

this follows the theory that townies aren't as shy on day 1. Kai's vote started as an FoS. the FoS itself materialized out of nowhere. then he basically just rode the bandwagon. after reading his posts, i can't really find anywhere where he posted a "case" on xite. he just kind of rode the wave of suspicion imo. nopoint was very "to the point" with his posting. there was no fluff, but he was not afraid to say "i am voting you for this and only this and we'll see what happens."

supersmashbros. second to last post in this game is odd. its scummy, but doesn't really make sense with him as either xite or Agar's partner. i'm going on a limb and giving him the town pass. he'll probably be replacing out of here.

Kai is my most suspicious by far. page 8 on the reread.

confid, andrew, shotty(not in that order) are persons of interest.

confid, however, doesn't fit in as a partner of either confirmed scum.

andrew and shotty just about spooned with our confirmed scum, so yeah. vote stays.

[don_johnson]

its hard. if he is xites buddy then he put on a real good act at the end of the day. i'm thinking scumbuddies wouldn't bus each other so hard. vote each other? sure, but shotty rode that wagon pretty good and encouraged me to hammer. if he was xite's buddy

he

would have most likely lurked out the end of the day. hm. that's a conflicting read for me.

kai is a good lynch. if andrew isn't a mason, he should also be lynched.

i wasn't going to say anything, but the reason i backed off him on day 1 was due to mysterios post. i thought it was a breadcrumb of sorts like "hey, that guys not scum because he's my mason buddy" type shit. sorry, i was trying to keep that under my hat, but i can't ignore his behavior at this point. especially with two scum down.

[don_johnson]

also of note here is that nopoint was hot on andrew's tail towards the end of yesterday. if andrew is xites buddy, it made perfect sense for him to kill nopoint. but now i realize that nopoint had to have been killed by werewolves. mayhaps someone was trying to frame andrew? that would place shotty as werewolf, kai as mafia? hm. that just might make some damn sense...

[don_johnson]

is everyone sleeping? i'm only halfway through beer number two. oh well.

hey, look at that................................................ TRIPLE POST!!!!

[don_johnson]

why do you think andrew wants to lynch you so bad?

[don_johnson]

yeah. i get that feeling too.

[don_johnson]

also, will be back to present my case on CA

still waiting on this.

[don_johnson]

please post the confid case.

[don_johnson]

i will support the shotty wagon, but i'm not putting him to L-1 until those promising content actually post it. i'd rather kai, but there is no support.

[don_johnson]

vote: shotty

Thanks a2. I don't buy the case, but I appreciate u posting it. Sss: I'm good. Hammer when ready.

[don_johnson]

i'd like confids response.

i'd like to be lynching shotty today. scummy enough. no need to out more claims.

[don_johnson]

you guys didn't realize i'm a double voter.

[don_johnson]

please hammer shotty. we need a night phase.

[don_johnson]

no. it could be you.

*waves hand*

trust in the force young jedi...

[don_johnson]

well played mysterio. andrew was really suspect, but your extremely light defense read like a breadcrumb to me so i backed off. and yes, killing me was a huge mistake. o well.