Open 245 - Mini Love - Scum win!

[Wisteria]

Confirming.

I am having a few access issues right now. This will be sorted by tomorrow at the latest; you shall hear from me then.

[Wisteria]

EBWOP: Shit, pressed submit by accident...
I am indeed active lurking. Everytime I post something I seem to get fucked so I'm waiting for someone to do something legimitely scummy. If anyone addresses me, I'll be here to reply, but don't expect me to talk about scum-tells that simply aren't there.

You know, the last person who told me this flipped mafia.

[Wisteria]

This game was a very interesting read. The problem is how to read the people in it.

tvellalott: Your new avatar makes me confuse you with Nikanor.

Stop. Shotty is an idiot. You have to understand this. Or you'll mislynch.

Question: Why this particular wording?

Deliberate rolefishing?

Question: How was andrew94 rolefishing with his list? He was asked to provide it, and he delivered.

I just reread and I can't work out why anyone picks andrew94 for scum.
Nothing he's done comes close to being a scumtell.
This seems to be a blatant opportunistic bandwagon of the most colorful player in the game.
Colorful =/= Scum
Having said that, I'm going to VOTE: Zed for starting the bandwagon.

Question: Do you think that players who start bandwagons like the one on andrew94 are more likely to be scum or town?

One of Andrew and Zed has to be lying, because, obviously, we can't have two doctors. I'm not entirely convinced that Andrew's a doctor, because if he is, he's playing very badly.

Zed I'm torn on, though.

So yeah, I'm currently trying to figure things out. But those two are my main focus.

Way to say absolutely nothing.

I suppose. How about pressuring someone who hasn't been pressured, or reiterating why your vote is on me, except that I said you had a freaky head.

Way to misrepresent the case Tasky had on you and brush it off at the same time. Do not deflect. Tasky had a perfectly reasonable case against you, one that I will be endorsing in a few lines.

To sum up:

I need to reread the thread to get a read on a few other people. For right now, we need to lynch tvellalott.

VOTE: tvellalott

Instead of addressing the case already presented against him, tvellalott has chosen not only to brush it off but also remain silent. Post 343 is survivalist. With the doctor dead, there are no other roles that require self-preservation. This includes the two lover pairs; after all, we have a treacherous lover out there.

[Wisteria]

I am not rolefishing. I am stating a fact. Yes, the lover pairs need to self-preserve to an extent, but they mostly do so to prevent getting killed by scum. In any other capacity, they will have to act as a regular townie because there is a 50% chance that their lover is scum.

Your accusation would hold water in a closed setup. This is not. Are you telling your buddies to stay quiet?

What is not survivalist about 343? tvellalott had admitted to staying quiet because he was attacked for whatever he said. By extension, he is afraid of getting lynched. Town hunt scum. They do not need to survive.

[Wisteria]

yaawn. this game is boring...

Why not do something about it?

[Wisteria]

I am not rolefishing. I am stating a fact. Yes, the lover pairs need to self-preserve to an extent, but they mostly do so to prevent getting killed by scum. In any other capacity, they will have to act as a regular townie because there is a 50% chance that their lover is scum.

Except for the fact that they make up two

confirmed townies who know each other's identity

with two independent votes, and so they're just as valuable to the town as PRs are.

The bolded portion is incorrect. Look at the setup. The town lovers cannot confirm their partner's alignments until the treacherous lover is dead. Until that occurs, they are townies hunting for scum like the rest of us. Their fate just happens to be tied to another player's.

What accusation?

Did you not just accuse me of rolefishing in 361?

Trying not to get lynched is on pretty much everyone's agenda.

Yes. However, there is definitely more than one way to go about this. tvellalott took one of the scummier ways.

[Wisteria]

Mod: Requesting prod of Mokujin_.

If you flip town, we'll know that you had no knowledge of other players' alignments, and (to be blunt) you haven't exhibited much skill at discovering said alignments either.

Demoralization is a fine scum tactic. Discuss.

Also, quadz08, looking at you in ISO, I noticed that your sole focus on Day 1 was andrew94. As I understand it, you made this into a policy lynch because you believed that he would be a liability in LyLo. What is interesting to me is you were never able to call andrew94 scum or touch on the possibility that andrew94 was scum; it was almost as though andrew94 was just a

lynch candidate

rather than a

scum candidate

. Why is that?

You also liked insisting that you found no one else scummy. Why, then, did you simply focus on a lynch that was supposedly policy, rather than find ways to uncover your reads? After all, if you did not have scum reads, you must have had some null reads you needed to pursue.

Methinks you're trying to out the lovers, and no, I'm telling the lovers to keep quiet. If we hang scum today, and the other pair of lovers dies tonight, the lovers can claim and we know for sure one of them is scum. If they both survive, we have a 3/1 scum ratio, which is awesome.

Good Lord.

With the doctor dead, there are no other roles that require self-preservation. This includes the two lover pairs; after all, we have a treacherous lover out there.

How is this asking the lovers to out themselves?

You are chasing after thin air.

In the meantime, new posts I have seen in preview have convinced me to do the following:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: quadz08

Please lynch tvellalott tomorrow.

[Wisteria]

All right. I have run through a few possibilities, and I think this is appropriate given a number of things. Of course, if I am about to do something incredibly stupid, I will hear you out in post-game discussion.

I claim lover with quadz08.

I would like to get quadz08 lynched today. With this, we are guaranteed a scum lynch either today or tomorrow. In the worst-case scenario that we both flip town, you will know who to lynch. If quadz08 flips treacherous lover, then I request the subsequent lynch of tvellalott, but that is up to you.

[Wisteria]

There was not much discussion from the QuickTopic. GarethByrd and quadz08 did not interact outside of an exchange of greetings, and when I replaced in, quadz08 displayed a mild interest in my thoughts of the game. I did not finish reading the thread, and I decided to not disclose what reads I had from what I had already read of Day 1 because of the whole unconfirmed alignment deal.

[Wisteria]

hmmm... WAAAAAIT... we are NOT quicklynching.
I have to think this over.

I am terribly furious at andrew for how he screwed us over with that stupid doc-claim.

Hey, scumbag. Already regretting that bus?

[Wisteria]

By my count, quadz08 is only at L-2. Why the panic, Tasky? Were you not complaining earlier that this game was boring?

To the few of you who were complaining about how andrew94 screwed up this game: He did not totally ruin it. His fake claim was poor play, but he managed to give me a few strong town reads out of that ordeal. If you are not getting a grip on things, I suggest rereading Day 1.

[Wisteria]

Happy birthday, andrew94!

No panic, I just don't want to quicklynch. There is still so much to be said.

What is there to say? We cannot draw associative tells until quadz08 and I flip. I will share my reads in twilight; there is a couple of things I am waiting on for the moment.

[Wisteria]

if you are waiting for something for the moment, doesn't that mean that you too don't want a quicklynch?

I do not care either way if there is a quick lynch or not because I can still analyze it.

PS: I think scum has a winning strategy at this point even if quadz flips scum. so we might as well give up.

Out with it. Right here. Right now. Not in your scum QuickTopic.

[Wisteria]

PS: I think scum has a winning strategy at this point even if quadz flips scum. so we might as well give up.

Out with it. Right here. Right now. Not in your scum QuickTopic.

lol. no. I'm not telling scum how to win.

What, is it a strategy that town cannot break?

[Wisteria]

I will take your word for it.

[Wisteria]

It appears that I have rendered quadz08 speechless.

[Wisteria]

quadz08 (6): ZeroFang, Tasky, Wisteria, drmyshottyizsik, Nexus
tvellalot (1): don_johnson
Tasky (1):, quadz08

Not voting (3): Mokujin_, WingsOWisdom, tvellalott

10 alive, 6 to lynch

Deadline Monday 18th October, 10PM GMT

I am having some trouble with this. Forgive me for making this post a little cluttered.

PS: I think scum has a winning strategy at this point even if quadz flips scum.

Since Tasky is looking at a situation where quadz08 flips scum, which is the best-case scenario right now, I will as well.

In that event, you will have 9 players remaining for Night 2.

Night 2

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Town Lover
Town Lover

Assuming the worst-case scenario for the third cycle where town both mislynches and loses the lover pair, we will have:

Night 3

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

By the start of Day 4, you will have lost another townie, leading us to:

Day 4

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Townie
Townie
Townie

This would be LyLo.

If this "breaking strategy" involves the mafia goons claiming they are the lover pair on Day 3, the solution would be to bite the bullet, lynch them, and punt the game to LyLo if needed. If they do this on Day 4, yes, I can see how this would lose town the game under the correct circumstances. The way to combat this would be to have the lovers claim on Day 3.

If the "breaking strategy" somehow involves strategical nonaction that puts town in MyLo, the solution is to not lynch at all unless someone is confirmed; however, with the doctor gone, it is impossible to confirm anyone.

Tasky, I now insist that you reveal this supposed breaking strategy in this thread.

I have trouble believing that this setup, already run twice before with town victories, can be broken in scum's favor by Day 2.

Besides, now that you have already mentioned that there

is

a strategy, you have handed scum the advantage because now they will be looking for it, and they are at an information advantage as it is. We need to know this. If you are town, you should have kept your mouth shut.

[Wisteria]

...and I have been made newly aware that Mr.Sandman uses the [area] tag for his vote counts. I think I will go ahead and post this now; I will not have access for the next few hours, and it would not do to keep my reads hidden forever.

As promised:

[quote="Wisteria"]Battousai (now Nexus) is town.
drmyshottyizsik is most likely town.
Mokujin_ is probably town, but this is a weak read.

tvellalott is scum. After my flip, believe me when I say I have a very strong gut read on this one, even if whatever defense comes up sounds reasonable.

If quadz08 flips town, investigate don_johnson and ZeroFang.
If quadz08 flips scum, investigate Tasky.
These are mutually exclusive.[/quote]
Additionally:

[unvote][/unvote]

Do not interpret this as hesitation. In a way it is, but for a different reason: I want Tasky to reveal what is on his mind [i]today[/i], and I would rather not have scum quick hammer their way out of this. [u]Do not vote, even for an L-1 vote, until everyone is satisfied with what Tasky has to say.[/u] Investigate anyone who goes contrary to this condition, please.

[Wisteria]

Apologies for the serial posting. I completely blundered that one.

EBWOP:

...and I have been made newly aware that Mr.Sandman uses the "area" tag for his vote counts. I think I will go ahead and post this now; I will not have access for the next few hours, and it would not do to keep my reads hidden forever.

As promised:

Battousai (now Nexus) is town.
drmyshottyizsik is most likely town.
Mokujin_ is probably town, but this is a weak read.

tvellalott is scum. After my flip, believe me when I say I have a very strong gut read on this one, even if whatever defense comes up sounds reasonable.

If quadz08 flips town, investigate don_johnson and ZeroFang.
If quadz08 flips scum, investigate Tasky.
These are mutually exclusive.

Additionally:

UNVOTE:

Do not interpret this as hesitation. In a way it is, but for a different reason: I want Tasky to reveal what is on his mind

today

, and I would rather not have scum quick hammer their way out of this.

Do not vote, even for an L-1 vote, until everyone is satisfied with what Tasky has to say.

Investigate anyone who goes contrary to this condition, please.

[Wisteria]

Unfortunately, I am having access issues again, so I will be mildly flaky for the next couple of days. What I want to know ASAP, though, is this:

there is no breaking strategy. That was supposed to be a scum-trap which I learned from a great player.

Link, now, as well as an explanation why you did not paste this link as evidence as soon as you brought this up.

Additionally:

if the other lover pair is okay not being revealed, lynching outside of quadz/wisteria runs the risk of exposing them. exposing means town loses potential masons for tomorrow. ugh.

This is bothering me. This is the second time you have referred to quadz08 and I as a "mason pair." Why do you sound so certain of our innocence?

[Wisteria]

What kinds of reactions were you expecting, then, Tasky?

if we lynch you and you flip scum, the other lover pair will become masons.

Oh, now that I have reread don_johnson's post, I see that now.

I retract the question. Do not respond to that. At least, not until we flip.

[Wisteria]

Who do you suggest as the alternative lynch, then? How certain are you of this person flipping mafia goon? What do you think are the consequences if this person flips town? Flips mafia?

[Wisteria]

I am growing ever impatient, so I will drop the hammer now.

VOTE: quadz08

I feel rather good about this lynch, actually, though I fear this may have come at a cost that was unnecessarily high.

quadz08's effort to get Tasky lynched seems a little too last-ditch, and I am wondering if he is not framing Tasky. It is of much more benefit to scum to get town to mislynch today, and Tasky was already under attack for some of the stances he has taken. Judging from what I have read of one of Tasky's games, I do not think Tasky is scum. That is mostly a gut read, however.

tvellalott is the better option for tomorrow, in my opinion. If I were to pick a second suspect, I would pick Mokujin_ for some of the things he said that felt questionable. I would not overlook the WingsOWisdom slot, either; the lurking appears to be a null tell, but that slot is devoid of reads and needs to be examined as soon as possible.

The above still stands in the event that quadz08 flips town.

I want more participation from Nexus. I realize that he has been busy, but he is, as far as I can tell, the strongest town read in this game (thanks to Battousai), so his opinions would be very valuable.

I think that is it for today. Best of luck to everyone.

[Wisteria]

Your idea only works if we lynch correctly. The way I worked it out, the benefits of lynching a mafia goon today are minor compared to the potential consequences of mislynching. If you are town, the benefits are even smaller, and the consequences are even greater. I already blew it when I claimed to get you lynched, so the only option from there was to go through with this lynch.

[Wisteria]

Is it safe to come in?

In hindsight, I realized that my hammer was a poor move. I should have realized something was up with don_johnson calling us the "mason pair," which would have confirmed don_johnson as scum, except I was so bent on quadz08 being the treacherous lover that my judgment was cloudy. I apologize to town for being an idiot.

Battousai, that was a great gambit.