Open 254 ~ Trust Issues (FvEvE) Game Ends

[Muffin]

Hi guys, /confirming as springlullaby's replacement.

Unfortunately this weekend is Thanksgiving up here in Canada so I'll be V/LA until monday around lunchtime.

I'll spend what time I can manage over the weekend doing some iso reads and whatnot.

[Muffin]

Hi guys, I'm back. Getting caught up on what I missed over the weekend; thoughts/comments coming soon.

[Muffin]

Day 1 thoughts: The players that stuck out to me the most were Equinox/ulite, quadz, zed/chesskid, and to a lesser extent kunkstar.

-Not that it's particularly relevant at this point, but glad to see my read of equinox and ulite was on the money.

-Quadz was obvscum. Is there a quadz link with singersinger? Surprisingly astute read from quadz on zed in a couple of his posts. My immediate thought was that this doesn't look like bussing; Quasz is going for the jugular, so are they opposite scum factions or is zed merely town who gets upset far too easily? Time to read zed in iso.

Zed: Firstly, this post and the accompanying explanations are bogus. First she puts down a weak case, and gets immediately called on it. Then all of a sudden it's "oh ha ha guys, I was half joking, disregard that post plox"? Not buying it.

Also really disliking the appeal to emotion in her iso post #20, and playing "to save herself" which IMO is scummy. Townies ought to know that if they die they can still win, and in fact sometimes townies can do more service to the town by dying than they can by selfishly clinging to life. In fact, Zed is not doing a lot of scumhunting, if any at all. She gets real emotional when attacked, and spent almost the entirety of the game defending herself instead of creating a defensible position on someone. AFAICT her entire case on lowell seemed to consist of "lowell ignored my posts and laid down a poorly-reasoned FOS"

Time to pick up with chesskid where Zed left off:

-lol @ him getting bad vibes from nexus who flipped mason

This quote is interesting:

Vote for me if you want, replacing into scummy slots is hard, and I shouldn't get a pass because I replaced. Zed may very well have read as scum to me if I'd even bothered reading what he posted - I don't read my replacements posts for that reason.

I personally feel you should judge a role by all the players who have played it. Why don't you read the posts of players you replace?

-the pbpa on quad is nice, but to me there are just as many scum motivations for this as there are town motivations (assuming zed/chesskid and quadz are on different scum teams) so I'm not giving any town points for it.

-I'd like to see chesskid's promised iso on singer

-It's awesome that Ulite was killed? Care to explain why? Pretty sure it's better for us if they cross-kill each other.

-note to self: reread lowell and a2r in iso

-------------------------------------

As far as my predecessor's play so far... The only plausible explanation for that first post I can think of is maybe deliberately trying to be scummy to get out of the RVS as fast as possible. I do that sometimes. Not answering the equinox questions might fit under that explanation, but not the random fosses. (Also I think fossing is stupid). Beyond that all I can say of spring's 4 posts is that I seriously disagree with his "ok" read on Zed. I find the zed/chesskid slot to be the scummiest in the game atm, so

vote: chesskid3

[Muffin]

Werewolfscum had two options at the end of the day, to either buss quadz or try and get an alternate lynch. Starting with the alternate lynch theory, it would be one of the four players on the chesskid3 wagon, considering that was the only other viable alternative to quadz. The four players are: quadz08(scum), Lowell, kunkstar7 (myself), and Antihero.

It might be all the tryptophan but can you explain please why you don't think chesskid3 is a valid target for werewolf scum to lynch?

[Muffin]

Real response coming Tues night, as I said.
Brief things:
Muffin, what slot are you replacing again?

I replaced springlullaby

and in response to this:
"I personally feel you should judge a role by all the players who have played it. Why don't you read the posts of players you replace?"
I trust my reads better than anyone elses. I don't really care who Zed found scummy, I care who I find scummy. I did read Zed's posts that were important for forming reads on other players, however.

Fair enough, I suppose.

Also since today's objective is to lynch the other Werewolf, and I'm pretty obviously not the other Werewolf, we're not lynching me today.

Subtle.

[Muffin]

If deadlines are looming, I'll stand in line for an Antihero lynch too.

[Muffin]

I'm still here. Doing an iso on Antihero but super busy yesterday and today. Should have time to complete it tonight.

[Muffin]

Your gut is wrong.

[Muffin]

Is this the case on Antihero to which you keep making reference?

So...Antihero makes no mention of quadz and his scummy play, EVER. And only calls out Zed because he thinks he's only trying to divert the attention to the other growing wagon, completely disregarding the fact that plenty of other players agreed he was scummy (oh hey look, he flipped scum).

He also makes a big deal out of the whole me/Equinox thing, when in my opinion, forcibly not answering your own questions when one of them looks like fishing is scummy. To me, it felt like he was only trying to push a scummy issue on me, when other people even agreed it was suspicious. Hey, OMGUS? No, quoting people out of order, and not thinking that the order of the posts matter is scummy. You may have made a mistake, but then backtracking and saying it wouldn't have mattered anyway is BS.

He seems to by quite hypocritical with not wanting to read any WoTs, and then posting a couple of his own (doesn't matter if they're quotes, you admit that it's our responsibility to read them, so we will if you post them), as well as when he said he didn't admit he made a mistake, when he really did...and then admitted it was a mistake

again

.

Again, I still don't understand how he thinks quadz isn't scummy at the end of the day. He votes Zed...but doesn't give any reasons for doing so, other than "he's scummier." I feel like my wagon didn't take off, so he voted the only other wagon that wasn't his scum-buddy.

Well first things first, after rereading the game both full and with anti in iso I agree with your point that he never mentions quadz ever. However maybe he didn't think quadz' play was scummy? The fact that others thought quadz was scummy is irrelevant, and known as an Appeal to Majority. I'd like to hear from Antihero on this though.

I also feel that Antihero hasn't done much scumhunting at all throughout the game; most of his posts are just asking others for clarification which is classic "scum trying to look like they're contributing" play.

As for the equinox questions thing, I feel that that was a genuine misunderstanding, and hypocrite != scum.

Overall I'd say your case is pretty weak.

[Muffin]

I'm also still waiting for an answer to this:

Werewolfscum had two options at the end of the day, to either buss quadz or try and get an alternate lynch. Starting with the alternate lynch theory, it would be one of the four players on the chesskid3 wagon, considering that was the only other viable alternative to quadz. The four players are: quadz08(scum), Lowell, kunkstar7 (myself), and Antihero.

It might be all the tryptophan but can you explain please why you don't think chesskid3 is a valid target for werewolf scum to lynch?

[Muffin]

Anyhow Muffin is sstill scum, because he called a case crap and still voted it => survivalist mentality => scum.

Please quote where this happened.

[Muffin]

I thought you voted Antihero, but the bolded points are still a wonderful contradiction.

Questions for others:
What is a jeeptell?
How is being pissed that there are going to be no clears tomorrow a scumtell?
and How is the last mason not clear? If someone were to cc being the last mason, that would be super awesome.

So either you deliberately mis-repped me or your aren't reading the thread properly. There are scum motivations for both, and town motivations for neither.

vote: chesskid

[Muffin]

Smells like tunneling. Wonder why that is? Theories? Oh, right, because it is! Wheeeeeeeeeee

I already made my case yesterday... so far you haven't done anything to change my mind.

[Muffin]

Hammer obvscum please. He all but claimed it yesterday anyways.

[Muffin]

what the fuck do you think I claim?

Muffin is def scum, if a2rudeboy isn't scum he's scum as well.

Someone hammer me then.

aww are we appealing to emotion now?

[Muffin]

PBPA of chesskid's day 3 postings... let's examine how much scumhunting he's doing, shall we?
======================================================================

a2rudeboy, why the hell did you have to softclaim mason + masonbuddy?
Seriously, not cool.
Anyhow Muffin is sstill scum, because he called a case crap and still voted it => survivalist mentality => scum.

Vote: Muffin

Voting for me for fabricated reasons, and fishing for a mason claim out of a2rb

check his ISO. he softclaimed/breadcrumbed mason like 3 times

more fishing, no scumhunting

Nah man nailing werewolf scum is what mafia scum want to do.

Btw you're confirming being last mason, right?

here fishy fishy fishy

f v e v e?
Also massclaim at this point amounts to us claiming mason/not mason?
Popcorn style?
I'll go first if you want.

He doesn't know what FvEvE means even though it's in the freakin' thread title?

But like it's not like the last mason isn't going to die tonight anyway

Enough about the stupid masons

Over the top? If a2rudeboy hadn't made it obvious who the masons were this would have been practically autowin.

Obsessmuch?

last mason is a confirmed clear, though.

I thought we were done talking about the masons

and How is the last mason not clear? If someone were to cc being the last mason, that would be super awesome.

If the last mason was not thinking enough to not counterclaim a fakeclaiming scum. But like I said, technicalities.

Well the point is rather moot, since a2rudeboy has as good as claimed mason + partner.
Also I was obviously not the only one to pick up on this, since singer died.

Or is it perhaps you picked up on it, and so singer died? I don't get why it's necessary to pull a mason claim out like a tooth. If you're town and you know who the mason is then keep it to yourself and let the masons decide when to reveal.

Smells like tunneling. Wonder why that is? Theories? Oh, right, because it is! Wheeeeeeeeeee

Still no scumhunting, though we seemed to have moved past the mason issue.

Smells like tunneling. Wonder why that is? Theories? Oh, right, because it is! Wheeeeeeeeeee

I already made my case yesterday... so far you haven't done anything to change my mind.

Yup, it was tunneling yesterday too.

Tunneling cause I voted for him. Yep. Still no scumhunting.

Right, the part where I said we weren't lynching me because I was obv not the last werewolf => me claiming regular scum.

The part where you spend all of D3 doing nothing but rolefishing and pointless arguing and no scumhunting => you scum.

what the fuck do you think I claim?

Muffin is def scum, if a2rudeboy isn't scum he's scum as well.

Someone hammer me then.

IF a2rb isn't scum? If? Are you saying you aren't sure that a2rb is a mason now? After all that above about how he's guaranteed confirmed 110% mason? EL OH EL.

vote:chesskid

i'm put off by how much you're pushing this mason issue, to me it reeks very much of scum trying to appear town and look useful. for one, why would you see the need to "out" the last mason yourself? (no one had brought it up mind you, you started the day by coming after me for outing singer and then for softclaiming/breadcrumbing) i can't see what the town motivation would be to bring out something like that. secondly, yes a mason is a pr, but it's a pretty useless one at this stage in the game, with the two other masons dead, all it really leaves us is a confirmed townie, which is better than nothing, but there's also no 100 hundred percent way to confirm the last mason's validity.

As in, this is incredibly opportunistic if a2rude is _not_ the mason, he's scum based on just this post,since he recyles old reasons _after_ the wagon has already formed.

Ahh now we've changed our tune about a2rb completely have we? Still no scumhunting.

Nope, no AtE. Replaced into a tough spot, had to expect to be lynched at some point, since I'm the easiest misslynch.

Actually if soeone could not hammer me before Wed night that would be great so I can do some pair analysis and give my likely scumreads. The good news about the 2 werewolf lynches in a row is that we get the misslynch to use on me.

Claiming you're a mislynch, yada yada. Do some scumhunting and we might relent.

[Muffin]

Apologies for wall of text btw

[Muffin]

"Or is it perhaps you picked up on it, and so singer died? I don't get why it's necessary to pull a mason claim out like a tooth. If you're town and you know who the mason is then keep it to yourself and let the masons decide when to reveal."
Yup I was waiting for someone to do that. Muffin is confscum.
I'll do pair analysis with the slot to find the other.
Wednight someone can hammer me, then it'll be 2 and out for a town win.

More "muffin is scum" without any actual evidence.

[Muffin]

I made my case awhile ago, I'll suplement it with additional info when I find your partner.

Townies have partners?

[Muffin]

I'm not fixated on outing the last mason. I am irked at a2rude if he is a mason for saying that singer was obvtown, which may very well have had an impact on the NK choice.
Since I said that, it has been blown out of proportion by scum.

8 of your 14 posts this game day made reference to masons in some way. That's >50%

[Muffin]

I'm here, and still reading the thread. My last post was yesterday at 9 pm, so I didn't think I'd be in trouble.

Just waiting for someone to hammer chesskid or do something interesting.

[Muffin]

Not blaming you

[Muffin]

anyone who hammers before Wed night is scum, btw.

Hurry up and post the damn pair analyses already.

[Muffin]

I actually don't think CK is scum.

His wagon is a crazy train though.

Vote: Muffin

Any particular reason?

[Muffin]

*sings the jeopardy theme song*

[Muffin]

LyLo now, is it not?

Time to do some iso reads.

[Muffin]

Muffin was all up in CK's tailpipe yesterday, and his smarmy attitude and push on CK (who was getting more obv-town as the day went on) was worth a vote.

*shrug* I was wrong, what more can I say? That's how I play: I pick my strongest scum read and keep hammering them until they're lynched.

[Muffin]

I'll be able to post later tonight. Was holding off responding in anticipation of Kunkstar responding to the latest few posts about him.

[Muffin]

@muffin: What are the results of your iso reads? Who are your top suspects for today?

Some might be tempted to call me out for Information instead of Analysis, but bear with me, there's a point to this:

The first thing I did was go back and read everybody and did what I call a "namedrop analysis". I found that of the 5 of us still alive, Lowell was talked about the most, and Pom was talked about the least.

• Sevei mentioned Lowell the most, and barely talked about Pom at all.
  
• Kunkstar talked about Lowell and myself the most
  
• Lowell barely mentioned any of us
  
• Pom talked about lowell the most but only a little more than she talked about the rest of us

The purpose of this was to determine if people's play seemed to be revolving around each other, which I figured would be indicative of an attitude of teamplay. Note that I didn't keep track of players who are now dead because the other scum faction is out of the game and the current scum faction is intact.

The next thing I did was go back and look at wagons, and what struck me is that in this votecount, both werewolves were on the wagon along with pom, lowell, and kunkstar. Since I know that I am town, I can conclude that at least 1 scum was on that wagon with the werewolves, and it wouldn't surprise me if both were. This jives with the townish read I have on sevei.

After doing that I re-read everyone who's still alive in iso. Normally I'm loathe to give lists ranking everyone from obvtown to obvscum because it gives scum a better idea of who they should target for nightkill, however I will give my top suspect, and that is Lowell.

I find it odd that someone with only ~20 posts this game was mentioned so much more frequently than the rest of us.

Notes about lowell: Shortly after I joined the game I was Lowell's #1 pick for scum ( http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p2568999 ) but a scant 3 posts later he's changed his tone to "if Chess is scum, Muffin is town." Scum motivations for such a thing could easily be attempting to set up a mislynch on me the following day.

This prediction didn't strike me as much of a big deal at first, but having read Lowell in iso a few times this post sticks out more and more. The key phrase, IMO, is "....so that we'll settle on Pom or myself as a compromise." The

or

is what I find compelling; it's as if Lowell is setting it up to be a choice of

either

him

or

pom, when it could just as easily be both.